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Posted
5 hours ago, bschoolprof said:

Austin and San Antonio still fucking around.

2 hours ago, BrickHorn said:

Holy shit. Travis County dashboard is reporting 6700 new cases today. That makes last Tuesday’s post-MLK spike look like a little blip. 

It's going through my kids' elementary at a very hefty pace.  Lots of positives, and we aren't even one of the schools doing pool testing - it's all parents taking the initiative and getting their kids tested.

 

Posted

I wonder how much the self reporting is kicking the numbers up.  I've seen that link floating around a few places and I think it's pretty new, so maybe more people are seeing it.  I'm sure the numbers were much higher 3-4 weeks ago, but people were just home testing and had no way to report positives.

Posted

Houston appears to have peaked a couple of weeks ago.

“Wastewater tracing, one of the most reliable indicators of viral spread, offers another optimistic sign of omicron’s declining prevalence citywide. Researchers tracking the level of COVID present in the city’s sewage said the amount of virus measured fell in nearly every ZIP code last week, when the maximum viral load was one third of that measured in late December and early January”

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/health/article/Is-Houston-past-the-omicron-peak-With-COVID-16800419.php

Posted
10 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

it's all parents taking the initiative and getting their kids tested.

A lot of parents (me included) are to the point that unless our kids are showing symptoms clearly something more than allergies, we’re not testing, even if a kid reportedly had a close contact with another positive case. Especially places like RRISD that are mandating a 10-day absence from school for a positive test regardless of vaccination status and symptoms.

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Posted
5 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Feels like close to societal breakdown in ATX. My local Spec's had changed closing time to 6PM until further notice due to staffing shortages. 

City of Austin is having to reduce trash pickup, etc. 

And I keep hearing from people who have got it, and it's surprising me how many are getting it.

Yes, a lot of people have relaxed their attitude about things, but damn.

Posted

I also hear a lot of folks getting it, far more than Delta or OG. Three in my closest circle who’ve gotten it all had pretty much the same symptoms – overall cruddy feeling for about a day and then a cough and some other lingering effects for a few days. I haven’t heard anyone I know getting the high-fever, flu-like, knock-you-on-your-ass, COVID during this wave.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, South Austin said:

I also hear a lot of folks getting it, far more than Delta or OG. Three in my closest circle who’ve gotten it all had pretty much the same symptoms – overall cruddy feeling for about a day and then a cough and some other lingering effects for a few days. I haven’t heard anyone I know getting the high-fever, flu-like, knock-you-on-your-ass, COVID during this wave.

That’s exactly my experience.  Had the ‘oh boy about to get sick’ scratchy throat, 1-2 days of actually feeling sick (low fever, big coughs, lay in bed), 2 days of diarrhea, two days of getting tired easy and lingering, occasional cough.  
 

The bitch of it was that we all did PCRs on day 2 of symptoms, they all came up negative, and by the time I tested positive on home tests we’d already had the fam back at school for 3 days like nothing happened…especially since kids never really got sick beyond the cough.  Wife/I booster in august and kids finished round 2 just before Xmas.  
 

Reading how omicron starts in the throat more than sinus/lungs seems to be why so many test - early and don’t get + until later.  Our PCR swabs weren’t back-of-throat like earlier ones.  That has probably contributed to the spread.  

Edited by Homercles
Posted
2 hours ago, South Austin said:

haven’t heard anyone I know getting the high-fever, flu-like, knock-you-on-your-ass, COVID during this wave

My BIL has it like that right now.  His vax history is one J&J shot a long time ago.   Or he has a bad flu, no test taken to verify yet. But he was in bed from Saturday thru Wednesday. 

Posted
13 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Feels like close to societal breakdown in ATX. My local Spec's had changed closing time to 6PM until further notice due to staffing shortages. 

 

7 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

City of Austin is having to reduce trash pickup, etc. 

And I keep hearing from people who have got it, and it's surprising me how many are getting it.

Yes, a lot of people have relaxed their attitude about things, but damn.

IMO, I think the labor shortages are more driven by the pseudo-general strike that's been happening moreso than due to COVID. Folks aren't getting paid enough to cover the cost of going to work (childcare, transportation, etc) so they're just electing to stay home

Posted
IMO, I think the labor shortages are more driven by the pseudo-general strike that's been happening moreso than due to COVID. Folks aren't getting paid enough to cover the cost of going to work (childcare, transportation, etc) so they're just electing to stay home

In healthcare and education, its due to covid. Omicron illness has compounded the existing issues you’re referring to.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Eskimohorn said:


In healthcare and education, its due to covid. Omicron illness has compounded the existing issues you’re referring to.

Yup, same thing in the supply chain.  Truck drivers and loading dock workers and everyone else along the line, getting knocked out of commission for 5-10 days, not necessarily due to sickness but often because of quarantine protocols.  There are some major longterm macro issues at work too, of course, but the current acute crisis of the past (and next) few weeks, is specifically Omicron-related.

Posted
43 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Sub 1k cases today, hospital and icu trends still moving in the right direction.  No one say it and jinx it. 

Is this where we say "ballgame?"

It feels like this is where we say "ballgame."

Old-school judges would also accept "DOOMED!"

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Posted
1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Is this where we say "ballgame?"

It feels like this is where we say "ballgame."

Old-school judges would also accept "DOOMED!"

We're gonna stomp a mudhole in Omicron...

 

Posted
I also hear a lot of folks getting it, far more than Delta or OG. Three in my closest circle who’ve gotten it all had pretty much the same symptoms – overall cruddy feeling for about a day and then a cough and some other lingering effects for a few days. I haven’t heard anyone I know getting the high-fever, flu-like, knock-you-on-your-ass, COVID during this wave.
My fever got pretty damn high one night and I had waves of fever and chills for a day or two. It wasn't horrible, but it sucked. I was Pfizer vaxxed last May, but no booster.

And yeah, a huge number I know are getting this when they didn't get any of the others. At least that they know about.
Posted
3 minutes ago, Okie State said:

My fever got pretty damn high one night and I had waves of fever and chills for a day or two. It wasn't horrible, but it sucked. I was Pfizer vaxxed last May, but no booster.

And yeah, a huge number I know are getting this when they didn't get any of the others. At least that they know about.

The three I mentioned all got their third shot. So maybe that’s helped minimize the symptoms.

Posted
The three I mentioned all got their third shot. So maybe that’s helped minimize the symptoms.
I think that's probably true. The booster seems to be pretty effective, at least in the short-term.
Posted

Apparently we are at the lowest number of ICU bed availability since April 2020.  Is that bad?  That sounds not great.

Posted

There were 25 deaths in Travis County for the week ending Jan 28th. This is the highest since week ending Sept. 24th, 2021. This time period last year there were 30 deaths.

The 25 deaths break down as follows:

20 to 29 (1)

50 to 59 (4)

60 to 69 (5)

70 to 79 (5)

80+ (10)

Current mortality rate by age group pandemic to date is as follows (for Travis County)

<1 (0%)

1 to 9 (0%)

10 to 19 (0.005%)

20 to 29 (0.046%)

30 to 39 (0.128%)

40 to 49 (0.391%)

50 to 59 (1.001%)

60 to 69 (2.992%)

70 to 79 (6.118%)

80+ (12.818%)

The distribution of deaths by age group pandemic to date are as follows:

<1 (0%)

1 to 9 (0%)

10 to 19 (0.08%)

20 to 29 (1.51%)

30 to 39 (3.57%)

40 to 49 (7.46%)

50 to 59 (13.49%)

60 to 69 (23.57%)

70 to 79 (22.70%)

80+ (27.62%)

Those in the 60+ brackets make up 73.89% of pandemic to date deaths related to CV19 in Travis County. If you are over 60 and not vaccinated you are playing a hell of a game of Russian Roulette with your life.

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Posted
7 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

If you are over 60 and not vaccinated you are playing a hell of a game of Russian Roulette with your life.

On bright side, they don't have to worry about long covid. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

On bright side, they don't have to worry about long covid. 

True dat, and the long term reduction in health care expenses for US economy from the elderly and those with multiple health conditions dying from Covid will be an interesting economics paper one day.

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Posted
11 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

True dat, and the long term reduction in health care expenses for US economy from the elderly and those with multiple health conditions dying from Covid will be an interesting economics paper one day.

Eek.  Nobody really wants to talk about this, but the modelling suggests that we have certainly pulled deaths from 2022 and beyond into 2021 and 2020. There are implications that the actuarial types are trying to peg. 

Posted
3 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Eek.  Nobody really wants to talk about this, but the modelling suggests that we have certainly pulled deaths from 2022 and beyond into 2021 and 2020. There are implications that the actuarial types are trying to peg. 

[NowThis]Did somebody say “peg”?[/NowThis]

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, XYZ said:

[NowThis]Did somebody say “peg”?[/NowThis]

We just passed the two year anniversary of the greatest post in Surly history.

Edited by Hate
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Posted
Eek.  Nobody really wants to talk about this, but the modelling suggests that we have certainly pulled deaths from 2022 and beyond into 2021 and 2020. There are implications that the actuarial types are trying to peg. 

Wait…does this mean we’re going to have to borrow deaths from 25 and 26 to make up the deficit? And then we’ll just be passing on that deficit to our kids!

I oppose this. It’s not fiscally conservative. Or something.
Posted
The fourth person I know died of COVID Thursday. Mid 40s with no comorbidities that I knew of. Leaves behind a wife and two sons under the age of 10. Not vaccinated. 

But did he own the libs? That’s the most important thing.



I’m sorry, it just makes me so fucking angry. My neighbors literally committing suicide by stupidity, harming their whole family and thus the whole community. For fucking NOTHING.
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Posted
23 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

The fourth person I know died of COVID Thursday. Mid 40s with no comorbidities that I knew of. Leaves behind a wife and two sons under the age of 10. Not vaccinated. 

I still don’t know anybody that has died. But I also avoid knowing people so that helps. 

Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


But did he own the libs? That’s the most important thing.



I’m sorry, it just makes me so fucking angry. My neighbors literally committing suicide by stupidity, harming their whole family and thus the whole community. For fucking NOTHING.

I didn't know him that well. His wife has been friends with my cousin for at least 25 years. She was a nice person in my interactions with her. His Facebook posts fit the stereotypical unvaccinated demographic.

I'd add that I work in a refinery so I'm around plenty of people that have been brainwashed into thinking it's all a big conspiracy. It's far beyond frustrating.

Edited by Schulz2.0
Posted
4 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

I still don’t know anybody that has died. But I also avoid knowing people so that helps. 

My grandma, a couple family members in their late 50s/early 60s, and this dude.

Posted
On 1/27/2022 at 6:38 PM, South Austin said:

The three I mentioned all got their third shot. So maybe that’s helped minimize the symptoms.

a colleague of mine has it and she has been going through some pretty rough times. 40 yo, healthy but only the JnJ. she refused to get boosted... she caught it last week and went through hell and back over the weekend. still not feeling well today. 

Posted

My friends are all across the board.... vaxxed, vaxxed and boosted, unvaxxed with some having covid in the first surge and omicron... but I don't know anyone thats been hospitalized with omicron

my hope is, to figure out why these no comorbidity patients are getting very ill.

Posted
On 1/28/2022 at 5:59 PM, BrazilHorn said:

True dat, and the long term reduction in health care expenses for US economy from the elderly and those with multiple health conditions dying from Covid will be an interesting economics paper one day.

So maybe I can count on Social Security and Medicare to be around when I need it...

Posted
25 minutes ago, dmtx said:

Not surprised. I think we learned that unless it’s the real deal nobody leaves their house for anything or interact with anyone, it’s not going to be productive.  And the logical progression of that is that we as a society aren’t able to conform to the rules of above for more than a day, if that. So lockdown implementation should probably be scrapped as a mitigation strategy unless the various governments are willing to enforce it with the power of martial law. 

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Posted
23 minutes ago, Longhorn94 said:

a colleague of mine has it and she has been going through some pretty rough times. 40 yo, healthy but only the JnJ. she refused to get boosted... she caught it last week and went through hell and back over the weekend. still not feeling well today. 

Same scenario for my 50 yo bil. Was bedridden for about 4 days and more than a week past that he is still very fatigued all the time. 

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