COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[Sawbonz 28245]

1 hour ago, DaysOff said:

There's other studies but WebMD was first hit.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20220707/each-covid-19-reinfection-increases-health-risks#:~:text=Researchers%20saw%20worse%20health%20effects,or%20contributes%20additional%20health%20risks.

That’s not a published study and the database is the VA. I’m not sure you can apply that to the general population 

[mdmost 44110]

20 hours ago, mdmost said:

Daughter tested positive today after we returned home from our trip to see her friend in Minneapolis. I tested negative. I guess we'll see how long that goes. I don't see how I don't test positive in the next few days given how much we were in the car together. At least this happened after the trip and not before it. That actually happened when the friend tested positive before the original trip in late June. And this is why I don't book anything non-refundable in the Covid era. 

Starting to feel tired and achy. My kid's covid to me:

[SimonBolivar 11068]

We picked up some lovely Covid on our wedding/honeymoon to the PNW. We tested when we got back at 3AM this morning after feeling a bit off on the flight back. Both popped positive and it's the first time either of us have tested positive since the pandemic started. Better now than before the wedding.

 

Sorry to everyone on the 5:55 Alaska Airlines flight from Seattle to Austin last night 

Edited July 20, 2022 by SimonBolivar

[Anastasis 23718]

21 hours ago, mdmost said:

I don't see how I don't test positive in the next few days given how much we were in the car together.

FWIW, my wife spent 6 hours in the car with the kids bringing them back from camp, both likely shedding and she didn't catch a case. I was in close contact with both, and the youngest was as well, and no secondary transmission.  This shit is totally a craps shoot. 

[kevwun 16449]

I have finally joined the ranks of the unclean.  Two positive at home tests.  Just got back from Vegas last night.  My wife still feels ok, but one other member of our group feels bad.  Her first test was negative though.

Edited July 20, 2022 by kevwun

[dcbc 14645]

9 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Well, I think that our household is out of the shit. ~10 days out and doesn't appear to be any secondary household symptomatic transmission. 

So was the count two kids got it and no adults?  I've lost track.

 

Nevermind, I read on.  Glad you guys managed to dodge it.

Edited July 21, 2022 by dcbc

[dcbc 14645]

1 hour ago, mdmost said:

tired and achy

Those were my symptoms.  Actually, those were the worst of them.  It started off as just feeling off, a little hitch when I took a deep breath, and a little bit of a dry cough. 

Edited July 21, 2022 by dcbc

[kevwun 16449]

I thought it was allergies for awhile, but really tired and achy now.  No cough yet, but my nose is like a fire hydrant.

Edited July 21, 2022 by kevwun

[Scheiss Meister 8477]

Ten days in and I feel good in general, but I'm tired all the time, and moving around even a little bit, like watering trees, exhausts me.  You Covid veterans, please tell me that the fatigue goes away.

Ironically enough, I got a text for my fourth Texas Cares blood draw the same day I tested positive.  I'll go by there next Monday or Tuesday.

[mdmost 44110]

59 minutes ago, dcbc said:

Those were my symptoms.  Actually, those were the worst of them.  It started off as just feeling off, a little hitch when I took a deep breath, and a little bit of a dry cough. 

And after I stopped working for the day and laid on the couch, I feel much better. Didn't sleep and wasn't really tired enough to do it. Just needed about 30 minutes to lay there and I'm okay. I kinda feel this way every now and then especially after not getting enough sleep. I took a trip with my older kid up to Minneapolis and the room we stayed in had a shitty window unit that kept turning on and off repeatedly so it made it hard for me to stay asleep. Also drug my ass around a hot amusement park for 12 hours where it was going from hot to cold over and over to stay sane. But probably tomorrow I'll feel like ass again. We'll see. If I feel cruddy tomorrow, I'll take another test. Younger kid is acting like she feels achy but we only got back yesterday and I think she's having sympathy pains. 

[dcbc 14645]

18 minutes ago, mdmost said:

And after I stopped working for the day and laid on the couch, I feel much better. Didn't sleep and wasn't really tired enough to do it. Just needed about 30 minutes to lay there and I'm okay. I kinda feel this way every now and then especially after not getting enough sleep. I took a trip with my older kid up to Minneapolis and the room we stayed in had a shitty window unit that kept turning on and off repeatedly so it made it hard for me to stay asleep. Also drug my ass around a hot amusement park for 12 hours where it was going from hot to cold over and over to stay sane. But probably tomorrow I'll feel like ass again. We'll see. If I feel cruddy tomorrow, I'll take another test. Younger kid is acting like she feels achy but we only got back yesterday and I think she's having sympathy pains. 

My aches and chills and sweats were almost entirely a nighttime symptom.  During the days, it was mostly fatigue.  Even after the first two nights where I had those symptoms, if I did much during the day, I would need a nap afterward.  That lasted for another 3--4 days.  On the whole, not terrible. 

[NoRagrets 1141]

14 hours ago, dcbc said:

My aches and chills and sweats were almost entirely a nighttime symptom.  During the days, it was mostly fatigue.  Even after the first two nights where I had those symptoms, if I did much during the day, I would need a nap afterward.  That lasted for another 3--4 days.  On the whole, not terrible. 

I have the covids. Exhausted, eyes hurt a little, and some congestion. Hoping this crap goes away fast. I think the youngest has it, too.

[mdmost 44110]

14 hours ago, dcbc said:

My aches and chills and sweats were almost entirely a nighttime symptom.  During the days, it was mostly fatigue.  Even after the first two nights where I had those symptoms, if I did much during the day, I would need a nap afterward.  That lasted for another 3--4 days.  On the whole, not terrible. 

Slept fine last night. Woke up this morning with a little congestion and a little bit of a headache. Had a smoothie with some orange juice and feeling better now. I guess we'll see how today goes. Hoping this is just travel crud and not getting enough sleep. 

[dcbc 14645]

Fourth UT Cares Draw Results:

For ease of reference.  Pfizer:  12/29/20; 01/17/21, Booster (Full Pfizer Dose):  08/12/21

 

Prior Infection: Yes (7/3/21).  Antibodies from infection 1.6 (out of range)

Antibodies from Vacination:  Still >2,500 (out of range).

 

Conclusion:  That third Pfizer booster still has my antibodies out of range nearly 1 year later.  But it don't make a shit because BA.5 (presumably) is evasive.  Nonetheless, my symptoms were relatively very mild.  So it probably is, as they say on The Sopranos, not for nuthin'.

Edited July 21, 2022 by dcbc

[Pato del Muerto 53602]

Do the vaccine antibodies get triggered for generation when an infection is present?  I would think they would, unless  and until your body turns its machinery towards the better antibodies  it starts making based off of the actual virus. 

[South Austin 53269]

9 minutes ago, dcbc said:

Conclusion:  That third Pfizer booster still has my antibodies out of range nearly 1 year later.  But it don't make a shit because BA.5 (presumably) is evasive.  Nonetheless, my symptoms were relatively very mild.  So it probably is, as they say on The Sopranos, not for nuthin'.

To clarify (and you may have mentioned this before), by "third booster," do you mean third overall shot, or that you had the first two doses, and then three subsequent shots?

[dcbc 14645]

9 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Do the vaccine antibodies get triggered for generation when an infection is present?  I would think they would, unless  and until your body turns its machinery towards the better antibodies  it starts making based off of the actual virus. 

I have no idea.  They use different units to measure them apparently.  Mine were above 2,500 on my February (third) draw, and they still are.  So basically, for the near term, I'm not doing another booster unless its strain specific.

[dcbc 14645]

8 minutes ago, South Austin said:

To clarify (and you may have mentioned this before), by "third booster," do you mean third overall shot, or that you had the first two doses, and then three subsequent shots?

Sorry.  Third overall shot.

[South Austin 53269]

Just now, dcbc said:

Sorry.  Third overall shot.

Got it.  I'm in the same boat, so the antibody numbers are lukewarm news for me.  My third shot (first booster) was in late November.  But seems like it may only matter for symptoms, not evasion of the latest variant.

[dcbc 14645]

9 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Got it.  I'm in the same boat, so the antibody numbers are lukewarm news for me.  My third shot (first booster) was in late November.  But seems like it may only matter for symptoms, not evasion of the latest variant.

A friend/coworker of mine got her booster (3rd overall shot) the same day as I did and got OG Omicron in January (lots of congestion and crap in her case).  My wife got her booster at the same time and got it from me in early July with somewhat worse symptoms/more congestion.  As has always been the case, I think severity of symptoms comes down to viral load.  My coworker got it from her kid.  So high viral load.  My wife got it from me.  Similar situation.  I have no idea where I got it, but presumably from walking through the wrong fart in the grocery store.  I also have a more robust immune system than both of these people who get hit harder by upper respiratory crud, and my wife is a cancer survivor (chemo does a number on your immune system). 

 

All in all, it's different for everyone, and I see no indication that vaccines and boosters do anything but make it a more manageable infection when all is said and done.

 

Another lady in my office, who likely is antivax and definitely is a smoker, got it last week and from all accounts, did not have anything resembling an easy time with it.  She's back in the office and looks like hell warmed over.  It also appears that it hurts her to speak.  Based on her overall stance throughout the pandemic, if she needs sympathy from me, she can find it between "shit" and "syphilis" in dictionary in my office.

Edited July 21, 2022 by dcbc

[HouTex 1943]

8 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Got it.  I'm in the same boat, so the antibody numbers are lukewarm news for me.  My third shot (first booster) was in late November.  But seems like it may only matter for symptoms, not evasion of the latest variant.

Same here with my third shot in late November as well.  I'll consider a fourth shot if it's strain specific.  I had Covid last month and it wasn't a big deal.  On dcbc's anecdote about the unvaxxed co-worker, I know several people who were never vaxxed and still had light symptoms with the current strain.  Who fucking knows at this point.

[dcbc 14645]

1 hour ago, HouTex said:

Same here with my third shot in late November as well.  I'll consider a fourth shot if it's strain specific.  I had Covid last month and it wasn't a big deal.  On dcbc's anecdote about the unvaxxed co-worker, I know several people who were never vaxxed and still had light symptoms with the current strain.  Who fucking knows at this point.

Her age (60s) and the fact that she's a smoker probably plays more of a role in her symptoms.  As with all of these antivax folks, I'm not wishing her ill.  But if she could have improved her odds of catching an easy case and didn't, I'm not going to worry for her over it.

Edited July 21, 2022 by dcbc

[kevwun 16449]

I felt pretty rough last night and went to bed at 9:30 because I was tired of having the chills.  Woke up this morning and felt better and have improved throughout the day.  No fever so far today either.  Aches have faded some also.  I am betting that I am through the worst of it.  Also got a State of Louisiana exposure notification this afternoon.  I had forgot that I signed up for it the last time we were in New Orleans.  It said it was Saturday or Sunday, so that one was either somewhere along the way traveling to Las Vegas or somewhere in a casino.  I am guessing it was Saturday because I first felt like I was coming down with something on Monday evening.

Edited July 21, 2022 by kevwun

[HenryJames 67466]

7 hours ago, NoRagrets said:

I have the covids. Exhausted, eyes hurt a little, and some congestion. Hoping this crap goes away fast. I think the youngest has it, too.

AnyRagrets?

 

[Anastasis 23718]

On 7/20/2022 at 3:31 PM, Sawbonz said:

That’s not a published study and the database is the VA. I’m not sure you can apply that to the general population 

The VA group has done some really good work, but they (and most of the database research conducted in this space) has some significant limitations.  Their comparison groups have flaws, particularly the way that they index the comparison groups, that suppress the background rates of these conditions. If you look at some of their early papers this becomes clear.  They find things like obesity for example being associated with covid post acute phase. That is not real and is a surveillance/coding issue. People post covid and getting more diagnostic testing and work up that is detecting a mix of pre existing conditions and new onset conditions. They are still doing some good work, but all study quasi-experimental designs will have limitations and need to be unpacked carefully.  Shit gets exponentially more complex when you start looking at reinfections. Multiple factors involved...vax status, variant timing, predisposing factors, acute phase treatment, etc. etc. etc. 

 

I think the best summary is: 1) post-acute sequelae are common; 2) when contrasted with different comparison groups, at 30k ft level things look pretty similar whether that is non-covid contemporary controls or historical respiratory infection controls; 3) when you drill down into specific conditions, some differential patterns emerge, but the patterns observed are dependent on methodology to certain extent, and the most clear consistent patterns are relatively benign post-acute sequelae, e.g. cough, dyspnea, but there are also some concerning signals related to hypercoagulability (DVT/PE) and some really weird and hard to explain inconsistencies.    

[mdmost 44110]

Started feeling achy last night and got pretty tired so I went to bed early. Woke up this morning and took another test since the symptoms are still around. Yep, I got the....

[kevwun 16449]

My wife has it too now.  5 people went on our Vegas trip and 3 have come down with it so far.  All 3 of us were first time infections.  Of the 2 that don't currently have it, one had it for the 1st time in April.  The other friend that's still good must have one hell of an immune system as she still hasn't had it.

[kevwun 16449]

The friend who still hasn't had it was also on our flight home so she was around me all day on Tuesday at the airport and sat in the same row as us on the plane.

[StruggleBus 3922]

3 minutes ago, kevwun said:

The friend who still hasn't had it was also on our flight home so she was around me all day on Tuesday at the airport and sat in the same row as us on the plane.

She probably already got it

[kevwun 16449]

It's possible that she had an asymptomatic or super mild case along the way.

Edited July 22, 2022 by kevwun

[Pato del Muerto 53602]

Trying to pull general trends  from flawed data, the reported cases per 100k went down from last week (weekly cdc number) for Austin metro for the first time in 5 weeks after being pretty flat the past 2 weeks, and the reported hospitalizations trend line looks to have flattened out at around 150 for several days.  Wondering if this little surge has peaked. 

Edited July 22, 2022 by Pato del Muerto

[texasdago 7772]

On 7/20/2022 at 6:27 PM, Anastasis said:

FWIW, my wife spent 6 hours in the car with the kids bringing them back from camp, both likely shedding and she didn't catch a case. I was in close contact with both, and the youngest was as well, and no secondary transmission.  This shit is totally a craps shoot. 

Friends of ours just had it... husband and wife both caught Covid.  Their son? Zip.  Knock on wood but our family is 2 1/2 years in and still clear (unless we were asymptomatic)  

Edited July 22, 2022 by texasdago

[Anastasis 23718]

1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Trying to pull general trends  from flawed data, the reported cases per 100k went down from last week (weekly cdc number) for Austin metro for the first time in 5 weeks after being pretty flat the past 2 weeks, and the reported hospitalizations trend line looks to have flattened out at around 150 for several days.  Wondering if this little surge has peaked. 

I hope so, but as you allude to, the case data are fucking worthless. People popping home tests and having mild symptoms aren't being counted.  I mean I wonder what the multiple of cases that go unrecorded vs those captured is.  10:1 sounds nuts, but maybe close to reality? 

[Pato del Muerto 53602]

1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

I hope so, but as you allude to, the case data are fucking worthless. People popping home tests and having mild symptoms aren't being counted.  I mean I wonder what the multiple of cases that go unrecorded vs those captured is.  10:1 sounds nuts, but maybe close to reality? 

Wouldn’t surprise me. So I’m making the leap that those uncounted cases are mirroring the countable ones, since I can’t think of a good reason that they would be different. And that’s not even including cases where people just ignore their symptoms and don’t bother testing because they don’t really care if it’s allergies, a cold, or Covid. 

[South Austin 53269]

10 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I hope so, but as you allude to, the case data are fucking worthless. People popping home tests and having mild symptoms aren't being counted.  I mean I wonder what the multiple of cases that go unrecorded vs those captured is.  10:1 sounds nuts, but maybe close to reality? 

We'll never know, but if we had the means I wouldn't be surprised if 10:1 was a low estimate.  In addition to the asymptomatic cases or others in which folks had mild symptoms that they thought were simply allergies or a cold, I'm sure there are thousands of people who test positive at home and say, "well, looks like I'll work from home a few days," and never report it.  That's going to be standard behavior from here on out.

[texasdago 7772]

...and that's why I tend to look at hospital trends more than case counts. 

[HouTex 1943]

19 minutes ago, texasdago said:

...and that's why I tend to look at hospital trends more than case counts. 

Exactly.  Setrac.org is a good source for the 27 county Southeast Texas region.  The population is approximately 9.5 million people.  As of 7/20 there were 143 people confirmed with Covid in ICU in the region.  The trend is flat to slightly up.  There were 982 confirmed cases in non-ICU beds throughout the region.  

 

[Pato del Muerto 53602]

30 minutes ago, texasdago said:

...and that's why I tend to look at hospital trends more than case counts. 

 

2 minutes ago, HouTex said:

Exactly.  Setrac.org is a good source for the 27 county Southeast Texas region.  The population is approximately 9.5 million people.  As of 7/20 there were 143 people confirmed with Covid in ICU in the region.  The trend is flat to slightly up.  There were 982 confirmed cases in non-ICU beds throughout the region.  

 

And with that data I still haven’t seen anything that makes me think they are parsing those numbers and only reporting hospitalization/icu/vent for Covid related reasons, but rather all confirmed positive patients even if they are there for a MVC or GSW or something.  
 

I figure if all the various figures are going up, cases are rising as a %. And if they are going down, cases are receding.  Don’t think I can take anything else from the data. 

[Anastasis 23718]

36 minutes ago, texasdago said:

...and that's why I tend to look at hospital trends more than case counts. 

Totally agree, but I don't think that hospital trends are great in setting of an infection that *appears* to be waning in terms of severity.  Good to track the system capacity, but does it really reflect in a stable way over time community transmission?

I think sewer data may be more reliable than any others at this point. Every body shits. @Scheiss Meister 

[HouTex 1943]

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

 

And with that data I still haven’t seen anything that makes me think they are parsing those numbers and only reporting hospitalization/icu/vent for Covid related reasons, but rather all confirmed positive patients even if they are there for a MVC or GSW or something.  
 

I figure if all the various figures are going up, cases are rising as a %. And if they are going down, cases are receding.  Don’t think I can take anything else from the data. 

I agree.  But it’s a data point and as you said it’s helpful in identifying a trend.  I like to see the numbers, assuming they are not way off—and at 143 how far off can they be, and the numbers show that a relatively minuscule number of people are getting so sick that they wind up in ICU.  

[elfenix 34782]

early results indicate existing boosters do still do something against latest subvariants.  not sure why bill & melinda get top billing on this.  still need omicron focused vax. 

Quote

Getting a booster can generate enough of an antibody response and protection from severe disease outcomes to hold up against any of the new Omicron subvariants, according to an early release paper published this week in Science. That extends to BA.5, now the most prevalent COVID strain in the U.S. and a driver of COVID-19 reinfections across the country.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bill-melinda-gates-foundation-partly-183517019.html

[Anastasis 23718]

8 minutes ago, elfenix said:

early results indicate existing boosters do still do something against latest subvariants.  not sure why bill & melinda get top billing on this.  still need omicron focused vax. 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bill-melinda-gates-foundation-partly-183517019.html

 

 

[mdmost 44110]

Knock on wood. Feel like I'm coming out of it. Kid is already bouncing back and active. I woke up with no headache finally. A little congested in the nose. Ready to be done with this. Wife and younger daughter seem okay.

Edited July 24, 2022 by mdmost

[NoRagrets 1141]

Day 1 - Tired (5)

Day 2 - Extremely tired, cough, congestion, aches (3)

Day 3 - milder version of day 2 (6)

Day 4 - like having seasonal allergies (8). Felt good enough to get in the pool and wrestle with the kid, although that exhausted me and put me in bed the rest of the day

Day 5 - feels like a 3 beer hangover (9)

My little guy is bouncing off the wall. He got over it completely in two days. He has extreme cabin fever, though. 

[kevwun 16449]

I feel mostly better.  Still have some mild allergy like stuff.  The fatigue is still there.  I tightened up 4 legs on a small table earlier today and it kinda wore me out.  Sense of taste and smell has also been dulled a lot.  That part bothers me the most.

[InkaUtexas 26963]

Glad everyone is doing better. 

[StruggleBus 3922]

23 hours ago, NoRagrets said:

feels like a 3 beer hangover

[Gatorubet 30789]

Oh oh oh oh oh, oh oh oh oh oh
Oh oh oh oh oh, oh oh oh oh oh
Oh oh oh oh oh, oh oh oh oh oh

Up every evening 'bout half eight or nine
I give my complete attention to a very good friend of mine
I got the swabs and I, I got the vials
So hologramic, oh my Omicron.5

I brought my baby home, she, she sat around forlorn
She saw my Omicron.5 test - baby's gone
She crawled right out my window
or maybe crawled right out out my door
So hologramic, oh my Omicron.5
Oh, so demonic, oh my Omicron.5

Transition, transmission, transition, transmission

[txduck87 1021]

Just popped positive this am.

Wife had it 2 weeks ago and parents at tail end of their bout .

I think I lost 5 pounds last night from sweating. Other than that, feeling ok. Off to get some paxlovid…good times

[dcbc 14645]

It's ripping through my office at the moment.  Three more people down as of this weekend.  Two of them are first timers.