COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

Incredulity · February 10

1 minute ago, Brian Fantana said:

It's just my headcanon

You’ve identified the problem. The next step is washing it off.

Brian Fantana · February 10

Just now, Incredulity said:

You’ve identified the problem. The next step is washing it off.

My only problem is that mocking idiots who ran to Tractor Supply to buy horse paste for COVID is fun. If you wanna take human-grade (or whatever you call it) ivermectin I don't think anyone gives a fuck.

YGIFS · February 10

So unemployment is at a recent-history record low? But there's just tens and tens of millions of Americans who were terminated over these vaccine mandates? I guess they're just rioting in the streets? Would explain all this rain we've been having.

I think the perfect encapsulation of this whole thing was that meme with the guy laying in the couch, home sick from work because he had a slight cold. And then the next pic was he has Covid but has to get out into the world and go adventuring.

I do need to figure out if I just get this booster round. Because of another thing I got going on, my physician is adamant that I have to avoid any respiratory illnesses (covid, pneumonia, et. al.). I haven't taken a booster in about a year and felt like a wet bag of shit for 36 hours afterwards. But I also want to have another seizure either. I dunno. Any tips?

Incredulity · February 10

6 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

Any tips?

Pato del Muerto · February 10

17 hours ago, Anastasis said:

IIRC, there was no statistically significant difference in primary endpoint among vaccinated individuals in EPIC-SR. EPIC-HR reported a statistically significant difference among the seroconverted subgroup, but it wasn’t a compelling clinically meaningful differentiation from placebo. The subgroup analysis showed quite clearly that the serologically negative were driving the outcome in the overall group. I’ll post the figure later, but suffice to say I could have tuned out in 2021 and woken up in 2024 and the evidence regarding contemporary use of paxlovid is no more compelling than it was in 2021. But again, do what you want. It don’t mean shit to me. Just don’t try running any number needed to treat or cost effectiveness analyses on the data, or you might stroke out.

ETA: Here is the table from the NEJM paper on EPIC-HR. See the segmentation of results by serology status. Lower limit of the confidence interval for serologically positive individuals is -0.24% reduction compared to placebo, point estimate is -1.34%. While statistically significant, this is not a compelling clinically meaningful difference. The serologically negative new cases is where the effect is (-10.24% reduction, LLCI -7.21%.

EPIC-SR results were not statistically significant, overall or for the vaccinated subgroup. Low event rates across the board caused them to stop the trial. Not sure where the peer reviewed manuscript can be found, but results from PFE website at https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-reports-additional-data-paxlovidtm-supporting:

An updated analysis from 1,153 patients enrolled through December 2021 showed a non-significant 51% relative risk reduction (treatment arm: 5/576; placebo: 10/569). A sub-group analysis of 721 vaccinated adults with at least one risk factor for progression to severe COVID-19 showed a non-significant 57% relative risk reduction in hospitalization or death (treatment arm: 3/361; placebo: 7/360).

Again, the data are not compelling. Is what it is. Do what you want with it.

I’m only reading what you are posting and not the source documents at this time, but my first impression is that the thing that is driving the statistical insignificance in standard risk is the low % of inherent risk, such that even a 50% reduction isn’t a big deal because it goes from 3 patients to 2 out of hundreds. And you would need to spend the time, money, and resources to scale way up to get enough relevant data, and it isn’t worth it.

am I interpreting that differently than you?

Anastasis · February 10

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I’m only reading what you are posting and not the source documents at this time, but my first impression is that the thing that is driving the statistical insignificance in standard risk is the low % of inherent risk, such that even a 50% reduction isn’t a big deal because it goes from 3 patients to 2 out of hundreds. And you would need to spend the time, money, and resources to scale way up to get enough relevant data, and it isn’t worth it.

am I interpreting that differently than you?

I think that’s pretty much right wrt EPIC-SR. It’s a failed trial and they terminated based on a futility assessment.

Gatorubet · February 10

On 2/8/2024 at 8:17 PM, Anastasis said:

And I guess it is so - you - to fail to appreciate the fact that public health is a far broader concept than just COVID case counts and tenuous epidemiological justification, and includes cross cutting concepts such as the broad impacts of social determinants of health such as housing, food, and financial security. The whole vax at threat of losing your job/livelihood approach was counterproductive as a public health tactic on many levels.

Then I guess you don’t know what the definition of the word guise. There is a vast difference between less than perfect decisions made in a time of a worldwide pandemic of a deadly disease - and your assertion that efforts made to control the pandemic, whether the best decisions or not, were not made in a good faith effort to deal with an unprecedented threat to the world.

Like skipper, your empathy deficient soul ignores the million dead Americans. Just admit that you would be fine with an additional million dead Americans so long as you weren’t inconvenienced when going about your day by wearing a mask.

YGIFS · February 10

I wonder if people went out to Applebee's and SuperCuts during the 1918 Spanish Flu?

Texans: "1% of the people that get Covid will die from it? Then I'll take the risk and want muh freedoms!"

Also Texans: "1% of the Super Bowl broadcast will show Taylor Swift? I am outraged over the politicization of the NFL!"

jimmyjazz · February 10

13 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Then I guess you don’t know what the definition of the word guise. There is a vast difference between less than perfect decisions made in a time of a worldwide pandemic of a deadly disease - and your assertion that efforts made to control the pandemic, whether the best decisions or not, were not made in a good faith effort to deal with an unprecedented threat to the world.

Like skipper, your empathy deficient soul ignores the million dead Americans. Just admit that you would be fine with an additional million dead Americans so long as you weren’t inconvenienced when going about your day by wearing a mask.

Hint: "Libertarians"

DDD Dad · February 10

46 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Hint: "Libertarians"

You misspelled “selfish assholes.”

Anastasis · February 10

5 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Then I guess you don’t know what the definition of the word guise. There is a vast difference between less than perfect decisions made in a time of a worldwide pandemic of a deadly disease - and your assertion that efforts made to control the pandemic, whether the best decisions or not, were not made in a good faith effort to deal with an unprecedented threat to the world.

Like skipper, your empathy deficient soul ignores the million dead Americans. Just admit that you would be fine with an additional million dead Americans so long as you weren’t inconvenienced when going about your day by wearing a mask.

Are you doing ok, gator? Seriously. I haven't said anything about masks in the current exchange. I wore mine pretty consistently when it was warranted. Shit, i put a mask on my avatar for christsake. I wore it until the situation did not warrant, dialed it down, and ramped it back up when the variant and case counts indicated it was prudent. I don't give a shit if people still want to wear masks. I was travelling this week and there were some people wearing masks here and there. It did not offend me in the least.

Anastasis · February 10

5 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Hint: "Libertarians"

Or, alternatively, "epidemiologists".

It's amazing to me that there are still people here that think that the mandate tactic deployed was a good idea.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35618306/

The unintended consequences of COVID-19 vaccine policy: why mandates, passports and restrictions may cause more harm than good

Kevin Bardosh 1 2, Alex de Figueiredo 3, Rachel Gur-Arie 4 5, Euzebiusz Jamrozik 5 6, James Doidge 7 8, Trudo Lemmens 9, Salmaan Keshavjee 10, Janice E Graham 11, Stefan Baral 12

Affiliations collapse

Affiliations

1School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA bardosh_kevin@hotmail.com.

2Division of Infection Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.

3Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.

4Berman Institute of Bioethics, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.

5Oxford-Johns Hopkins Global Infectious Disease Collaborative (GLIDE), University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

6Ethox and the Wellcome Centre for Ethics and Humanities, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

7Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (ICNARC), London, UK.

8Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.

9Faculty of Law and Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

10Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.

11Department of Pediatrics (Infectious Diseases), Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada.

12Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.

Abstract

Vaccination policies have shifted dramatically during COVID-19 with the rapid emergence of population-wide vaccine mandates, domestic vaccine passports and differential restrictions based on vaccination status. While these policies have prompted ethical, scientific, practical, legal and political debate, there has been limited evaluation of their potential unintended consequences. Here, we outline a comprehensive set of hypotheses for why these policies may ultimately be counterproductive and harmful. Our framework considers four domains: (1) behavioural psychology, (2) politics and law, (3) socioeconomics, and (4) the integrity of science and public health. While current vaccines appear to have had a significant impact on decreasing COVID-19-related morbidity and mortality burdens, we argue that current mandatory vaccine policies are scientifically questionable and are likely to cause more societal harm than good. Restricting people's access to work, education, public transport and social life based on COVID-19 vaccination status impinges on human rights, promotes stigma and social polarisation, and adversely affects health and well-being. Current policies may lead to a widening of health and economic inequalities, detrimental long-term impacts on trust in government and scientific institutions, and reduce the uptake of future public health measures, including COVID-19 vaccines as well as routine immunisations. Mandating vaccination is one of the most powerful interventions in public health and should be used sparingly and carefully to uphold ethical norms and trust in institutions. We argue that current COVID-19 vaccine policies should be re-evaluated in light of the negative consequences that we outline. Leveraging empowering strategies based on trust and public consultation, and improving healthcare services and infrastructure, represent a more sustainable approach to optimising COVID-19 vaccination programmes and, more broadly, the health and well-being of the public.

Bevo · February 10

4 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Are you doing ok, gator? Seriously. I haven't said anything about masks in the current exchange. I wore mine pretty consistently when it was warranted. Shit, i put a mask on my avatar for christsake. I wore it until the situation did not warrant, dialed it down, and ramped it back up when the variant and case counts indicated it was prudent. I don't give a shit if people still want to wear masks. I was travelling this week and there were some people wearing masks here and there. It did not offend me in the least.

I love the mask wearing car drivers - I know who to avoid.

February 10

5 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Like skipper, your empathy deficient soul ignores the million dead Americans. Just admit that you would be fine with an additional million dead Americans so long as you weren’t inconvenienced when going about your day by wearing a mask.

LOlz. as if the mask saved anyone. Virtually nobody wore it correctly, and even if it was deployed properly, they most often were not N95 quality or better. Fact is – masks are effective at reducing transmission of COVID-19 when worn consistently and correctly.

They were political flags. Nothing more. Keep choking that chicken though...

Edited February 11 by slorch

Gatorubet · February 11

14 minutes ago, slorch said:

LOlz. as if the mask saved anyone. Virtually nobody wore it correctly, and even if it was deployed properly, they most often were not N95 quality or better. Fact is – masks are effective at reducing transmission of COVID-19 when worn consistently and correctly.

They were political flags. Nothing more. Keep choking that chicken though...

Everything went over your head. Including the fact that nothing in any of my posts discussed or promoted wearing masks as a perfect defense. But then, in affirming the efficacy of masks worn correctly and consistently, you may have made a point you did not intend to make.

But then, “Slorched” is not a Surly meme term by accident.

jimmyjazz · February 11

LOL wut? Masks had no effect?

Give me a fucking break. Broken brains, indeed.

Celery Man · February 11

People getting apoplectic about folks wearing masks in the car is still the funniest shit to me. They were probably just somewhere that needed a mask. Or they are constantly going in and out. Not everyone has wake apnea and needs to rip that fucker off like a WWI era gas mask once they get outside.

this shit sucks though. The level of sick isn’t terrible but it is lasting forever.

Anastasis · February 12

On 2/9/2024 at 10:44 AM, Pato del Muerto said:

Guys, a little birdie told me to be on the look out for a Pfizer Super Bowl commercial. I’m sure it won’t cause any stirs in any groups.

Overdone, but good for Kariko to get the call out. And now PFE proceeds to pivot away from their government funded franchise to oncology.

Edited February 12 by Anastasis

YGIFS · February 12

But Pfizer rigged the Super Bowl!!!!!!’

jimmyjazz · February 12

15 hours ago, Celery Man said:

People getting apoplectic about folks wearing masks in the car is still the funniest shit to me.

The odd thing is that some people might actually be doing the right thing because they are either immunocompromised or (less defensively) sick with the flu, etc. The whole idea of mask shaming is bizarre. If you're wearing a mask, you're helping everyone out, even if you're being "overly cautious".

Gatorubet · February 12

2 hours ago, YGIFS said:

But Pfizer rigged the Super Bowl!!!!!!’

Wrong! it was the NFL. The NFL fixed it because of Kelsey. And that average blonde girl he dates that’s not as hot as most of the MILFs at West Austin soccer.

Deej · February 12

9 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

The odd thing is that some people might actually be doing the right thing because they are either immunocompromised or (less defensively) sick with the flu, etc. The whole idea of mask shaming is bizarre. If you're wearing a mask, you're helping everyone out, even if you're being "overly cautious".

Amazing that most other respiratory viruses seemed to go dormant during the "great masking", and reappeared shortly after most people got their shots and stopped wearing them. But I'm sure they did nothing to slow the spread of COVID.

Anastasis · February 12

Just saying, ole Wooderson did pretty good for himself.

South Austin · February 12

Has there been a COVID bump in Austin recently? I haven’t heard much in several months, but over the past couple of weeks some friends and co-workers got it.

Schulz2.0 · February 12

4 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Has there been a COVID bump in Austin recently? I haven’t heard much in several months, but over the past couple of weeks some friends and co-workers got it.

My MIL got it a few days ago. My wife and 3 year old likely have it. I'm hoping to hold it off.

February 12

5 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Has there been a COVID bump in Austin recently? I haven’t heard much in several months, but over the past couple of weeks some friends and co-workers got it.

It's been in the mix with all the other stuff that's gone around this winter. Seems like this season has been especially brutal with a mix of covid, flu, cold, RSV.

South Austin · February 12

Just now, FirstTimeCaller said:

It's been in the mix with all the other stuff that's gone around this winter. Seems like this season has been especially brutal with a mix of covid, flu, cold, RSV.

Flu went around my kids’ schools a few weeks ago. I didn’t get a flu shot in 2023, but thankfully have managed to avoid it so far.

Anastasis · February 12

Stomach bug going around has been fun. Straight up ass afterburner.

BabaYaga · February 12

9 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

that average blonde girl he dates that’s not as hot as most of the MILFs at West Austin soccer.

Brisketexan · February 12

47 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Stomach bug going around has been fun. Straight up ass afterburner.

I had that starting the day after New Years. A combination of this:

...and a nice fever to knock me down hard for a couple of days. Hadn't had a legit stomach bug in YEARS. It sucked.

Anastasis · February 12

12 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I had that starting the day after New Years. A combination of this:

...and a nice fever to knock me down hard for a couple of days. Hadn't had a legit stomach bug in YEARS. It sucked.

Yep, that's the one.

jimmyjazz · February 12

1 hour ago, South Austin said:

Has there been a COVID bump in Austin recently? I haven’t heard much in several months, but over the past couple of weeks some friends and co-workers got it.

My son had it last week. + test to confirm.

Celery Man · February 12

fify

Anastasis · February 12

8 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

fify

That would be accurate.

YGIFS · February 12

Yeah, this is somewhere between anecdotal and statistically accurate but the pediatric network my wife refers to/from for speech therapy plus our two schools, RSV has been doing a fucking tap-dance in Austin youngsters this Winter.

best thing one can do is to make sure there’s no barrier between their ugly kid’s cough and other children. This is how we win as a country

hornian · February 12

3 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

I had that starting the day after New Years. A combination of this:

...and a nice fever to knock me down hard for a couple of days. Hadn't had a legit stomach bug in YEARS. It sucked.

I had one coming back from Hawaii last march. I tell you what, being on a plane over the Pacific is no place to be when you have one. Completely changed my perception of my first (and so far only) visit to Hawaii.

MissingInAction · February 12

Is this the new shart thread?

YGIFS · February 12

We were gonna call it Shartvid-19, but apparently that's a long-established genre on pornhub going back to the 2000's.

dcbc · February 13

18 hours ago, YGIFS said:

We were gonna call it Shartvid-19, but apparently that's a long-established genre on pornhub going back to the 2000's.

This thread turned into Shaggy (March 2018) quickly.

Pato del Muerto · February 13

You could say it got hit by a shartnado

huge · February 13

I still have never tested positive.

Trey3216 · February 13

On 2/12/2024 at 9:12 AM, Anastasis said:

Stomach bug going around has been fun. Straight up ass afterburner.

Had that sumbitch in late August right after the kids started back to school. Was at a work conference and had a nice trip to the emergency room for 10 hours because I apparently got so dehydrated that I thought I was having heart issues.

No heart issues

2 banana bags

High liver enzymes that proved to be a spike from the stomach virus after several blood tests, 2 different liver ultrasounds and a specialty doctor visit that proved to be fruitless, yet costly (thankfully the last 2 told me I was perfectly normal and healthy)

That was a bitch

South Austin · February 13

1 hour ago, huge said:

I still have never tested positive.

Same here. But also have never done the antibody testing, so I can't say for sure whether the one or two random and minor "colds" I had over the past four years were actually a mild case of COVID and the COVID shots were doing their job by keeping symptoms light.

Pato del Muerto · February 13

I have tested positive once, but my wife and kids have not. Fever is our main criterion for testing.

HouTex · February 13

9 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I have tested positive once, but my wife and kids have not. Fever is our main criterion for testing.

Same here for me and my wife. My adult daughters have had it a few times with no serious symptoms. I live with constant allergies so I only test if I get a fever. My last and only booster was November 2021 and I got Covid in June 2022 and I’ve been in close contact with many contagious people at numerous events since then. I’ve been Covid free since June 2022.

Incredulity · February 13

I'm OG moderna vax'd.

I could have gone through each of my Covid sicknesses and not registered it as anything more than a common seasonal cold.

Only exception being loss of taste and smell the first time I got it in Oct 21, that was really weird.

Blotto · February 17

I got something that knocked me down hard the last couple of days. 102.5 fever the first night, a couple of days of firehose ass, and now a raging sore throat. I've had asymptomatic Covid twice, but been testing negative so far and this is the sickest Ive been in years. Just sleeping and shelling the shithouse with regularity. Would not recommend.

Anastasis · February 18

6 hours ago, Blotto said:

I got something that knocked me down hard the last couple of days. 102.5 fever the first night, a couple of days of firehose ass, and now a raging sore throat

This that NeuVid.

Etexhorn13 · February 18

Popped hot for Covid on Monday after my wife and both kids had been sick a couple days. Only really knew because we happened to have a test left over from a little while back when my MIL was in remission etc. Never had a fever, but I was sore as achy as hell in my knees, sore throat and cough like crazy and had the off/on headache and brain fog. Not sure if it’s just the congestion or what but I haven’t been able to taste or smell for several days, which hasn’t happened since I had OG Covid a few years ago. I think I’m over the hump but still waiting for taste to come back and it’s incredibly annoying with how much I cook. Rant over

Poester · February 18

Covid is over. I had a friend get RSV and it knocked him out for a while. That’s my new paranoia.

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