COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[justhookit 4174]

2 hours ago, justhookit said:

So Nueces County new cases once again at 205. ICU up from 18 to 29. Hospitalizations up from 80 to 93.  I THINK this is a lag from not reporting those hospital/icu numbers yesterday. So it’s not quite as bad as it might look.

However we’ve been reporting new case numbers every day and it’s been steady around 200 for 6 days now. I’ve got a growing concern that this is being caused because we are at or very near our testing limits and not because we are “flat”.

So finally got to look at the new test numbers a little more closely. We will see 300 new cases at least once in the next 3 days. If we stick around 210 it means they can’t test enough or can’t process enough.

I’d much rather be seeing 150 one day and then 300 the next then back to 175 then 275, etc.

on the positive front, mask usage in Port A is great. A week ago we were at maybe 10% in the grocery store and pretty much 0% in the convenience stores. It’s now 95% in both, and the one person I did see go into Stripes without a mask pulled their shirt up over their face. No idea what’s going on in Corpus on that front.

[justhookit 4174]

8 hours ago, StruggleBus said:

2-3 times what is being reported is a massive understatement. With asymptotic cases and people who don’t get tested combined, it’s probably closer to 8 or ten times what’s reported.

Even at 10 times that puts us under 10% of total population. I keep seeing things like this talked about and wonder how anyone thinks hey, this is a good thing..

[justhookit 4174]

7 hours ago, Js1 said:

I mean were these People shitting at bars and restaurants before? 

Do you really want to know? But yes and also there’s that whole work thing. People really are shitting at home more often now. And then you have to factor in the female usage. The toilet paper thing becomes a little more understandable. 

[justhookit 4174]

3 hours ago, AUS-97HORN said:

Wilco, keep doing Wilco

Ours here read that same way. I think all the counties basically copied it from Bexar.

[justhookit 4174]

4 hours ago, justhookit said:

I’ve got a growing concern that this is being caused because we are at or very near our testing limits and not because we are “flat”.

Welp. I’m used to being proven wrong fairly quickly, but getting it right this fast is new to me. Also this is public testing, not the hospitals and doctor’s offices, but still. We’ve got a real issue down here.

"If you have already scheduled for a test with the Corpus Christi/Nueces County health district at Concrete Street amphitheater that is going to change," Zanoni said.  "You'll be getting a notice, but hopefully (testing will) be this week."

Zanoni said the city and county have requested additional materials from the state.

"Until they come in, we're down to a certain number of materials," Zanoni said. "We want to reserve that for some of these senior nursing homes and the state living center where significant outbreaks are going on right now."

 

Edited June 30, 2020 by justhookit
Yes, I occasionally read the CR.

[justhookit 4174]

Just wanted to post 6 times in a row because I’m quite positive my previous record was 5.

i was looking again at testing numbers and it looks like they’ve added a 7 day average. I’ve said before multiple times that the way Nueces has been reporting test numbers is wonky, but this is nuts (and I think somewhat to slightly inaccurate)

SEVEN DAY TOTALS	NUMBER
Testing Totals (last 7 Days)	3656
Average Daily Tests (7-day average)	522
Positive Cases	1378

Edit- Wtf. That better not be even remotely accurate. That’s 37% and since some of these tests are still the 2 to 5 day result tests, the true percentage is higher (we’ve been testing more people every day, so positive results are lagging). No wonder our overall positive percentage is climbing so fast.

numbers here https://www.cctexas.com/coronavirus

dashboard here https://corpus.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/fe742480193d4fff98f7af38c5104cfc

Am I misreading something here?

Edited June 30, 2020 by justhookit

[staboner 4955]

7 hours ago, BradInATX said:

Travis County shutting down all parks for the weekend.

Gyms and churches still open for business.

[justhookit 4174]

And just for the fuck of it when I started this thread 9 days ago it was because of a concern that Nueces county had increased their total case count by 35% in one week. This last week? 186%.

[GreenspointTexas 9556]

From a crna friend at another houston surgical hospital:

 

“Apparently half of our cases today cancelled because they were Covid positive on screening, supposedly 20 cases 😳“

[Armybrat 40678]

8 hours ago, AUS-97HORN said:

Wilco, keep doing Wilco

Well, mental midgets keep moving here from Austin & California. So there’s that consideration.

[South Austin 52037]

10 hours ago, BradInATX said:

Travis County shutting down all parks for the weekend.

Gyms and churches still open for business.

 

10 hours ago, Anastasis said:

This is dumb. 

It’s beyond dumb. But in fairness to our usually moronic city government, they can control one, but not the others.

Good call to shut down the parks ahead of another holiday weekend to avoid a repeat of Memorial Day weekend. But I’ll probably drive by the Bull Creek Greenbelt on Saturday and Sunday to see if the masses are paying attention and/or the City actually enforces this.

[BradInATX 9208]

3 minutes ago, South Austin said:

 

It’s beyond dumb. But in fairness to our usually moronic city government, they can control one, but not the others.

Good call to shut down the parks ahead of another holiday weekend to avoid a repeat of Memorial Day weekend. But I’ll probably drive by the Bull Creek Greenbelt on Saturday and Sunday to see if the masses are paying attention and/or the City actually enforces this.

 

The parks thing seems pretty silly to me. Even in a packed greenbelt or park, people aren't packed together less than a foot apart like they are in airplanes, church, and yes, even protests. They're outdoors in heat, sun, and wind. It just doesn't seem like a very high risk activity to me. And those people are just going to find some other place to go outside and drink with their friends. It'll just be someone's backyard. It's not solving anything at all. I think they're just throwing their hands up in the air and saying "we're not responsible for this and we don't want to deal with the Twitter blowback of a picture of 5,000 people at Pace Bend".

Edited June 30, 2020 by BradInATX

[huge 3788]

From a crna friend at another houston surgical hospital:
 
“Apparently half of our cases today cancelled because they were Covid positive on screening, supposedly 20 cases “

Would it be safe to assume at least half of those were asymptomatic? If they were sick would they actually think having elective surgery would be a good idea?

[Brew 3044]

9 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

The parks thing seems pretty silly to me. Even in a packed greenbelt or park, people aren't packed together less than a foot apart like they are in airplanes, church, and yes, even protests. They're outdoors in heat, sun, and wind. It just doesn't seem like a very high risk activity to me. And those people are just going to find some other place to go outside and drink with their friends. It'll just be someone's backyard. It's not solving anything at all. I think they're just throwing their hands up in the air and saying "we're not responsible for this and we don't want to deal with the Twitter blowback of a picture of 5,000 people at Pace Bend".

It makes some sense in parks that have public restrooms, but they could always just lock the restrooms. From what we have seen at the beach, people are maintaining their distance from other groups, but you still have some pretty large groups getting together and hanging out. However, to your point if they want to get together, they are going to get together somewhere.

[Newdoc 3429]

2 minutes ago, huge said:

Would it be safe to assume at least half of those were asymptomatic? If they were sick would they actually think having elective surgery would be a good idea?

Almost all of our presurgical positives are asymptomatic. We aren’t seeing those numbers but definitely some everyday.

[XYZ 2154]

18 minutes ago, South Austin said:

to see if the masses are paying attention

No.

19 minutes ago, South Austin said:

and/or the City actually enforces this.

No!

[VolenteHawk 495]

18 minutes ago, South Austin said:

It’s beyond dumb. But in fairness to our usually moronic city government, they can control one, but not the others.

Good call to shut down the parks ahead of another holiday weekend to avoid a repeat of Memorial Day weekend. But I’ll probably drive by the Bull Creek Greenbelt on Saturday and Sunday to see if the masses are paying attention and/or the City actually enforces this.

I don’t think it’s a good call. If any reasonable fraction of the people that would have hit the park otherwise go eat in a restaurant then the city has made the situation (at least moderately) worse for no good reason.

[Anastasis 23375]

12 minutes ago, South Austin said:

 

It’s beyond dumb. But in fairness to our usually moronic city government, they can control one, but not the others.

Good call to shut down the parks ahead of another holiday weekend to avoid a repeat of Memorial Day weekend. But I’ll probably drive by the Bull Creek Greenbelt on Saturday and Sunday to see if the masses are paying attention and/or the City actually enforces this.

 

9 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

The parks thing seems pretty silly to me. Even in a packed greenbelt or park, people aren't packed together less than a foot apart like they are in airplanes, church, and yes, even protests. They're outdoors in heat, sun, and wind. It just doesn't seem like a very high risk activity to me. And those people are just going to find some other place to go outside and drink with their friends. It'll just be someone's backyard. It's not solving anything at all. I think they're just throwing their hands up in the air and saying "we're not responsible for this and we don't want to deal with the Twitter blow back of a picture of 5,000 people at Pace Bend".

 

I've been hitting up the parks with the kids fairly frequently.  We did a few last week, one city park, one Travis County the other an LCRA park. The Travis County parks have been capping, the LCRA and city parks have not.  We like to be able to get outdoors and the kids can do their thing, and we are all distanced.  I have seen some shit that did not make me very happy, but that was uniformly large (10+) groups of unrelated teenagers to early 20s doing their thing. And they are going to do their thing whether it is at the park or in someone's backyard or house. The vast majority I have seen are families with young kids, or guys just fishing solo.  If you are going to shut the TC parks down, they need to coordinate with LCRA and the city parks as well, because all you are going to do is push a bunch of people into the other parks that have not restricted. I would just prefer that they devote some resources to patrolling the park and enforcing distancing requirements.   

[South Austin 52037]

11 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

The parks thing seems pretty silly to me. Even in a packed greenbelt or park, people aren't packed together less than a foot apart like they are in airplanes, church, and yes, even protests. They're outdoors in heat, sun, and wind. It just doesn't seem like a very high risk activity to me. And those people are just going to find some other place to go outside and drink with their friends. It'll just be someone's backyard. It's not solving anything at all. I think they're just throwing their hands up in the air and saying "we're not responsible for this and we don't want to deal with the Twitter blowback of a picture of 5,000 people at Pace Bend".

Over Memorial Day I saw crowds at Bull Creek all over each other. Many less than a foot apart. Maybe lower risk than indoor activity, but I don’t think anyone would call that “safe.”

And sure, those folks will still find another place to gather. And if it’s indoors, they’re probably the kind just as likely to do so even without a park ban. At least the City is doing something within its control in an attempt to curtail the spike. It’s better than nothing, unless you were just dying to cook hot dogs at Zilker this Saturday. And I’m one of the last guys to give the City credit for its decision-making.

[huge 3788]

I’ll be down in Bolivar this week.

It’s going to be a shit show and I can only hope to keep the unwashed masses* 6 feet away.

*Rednecks

[GreenspointTexas 9556]

My buddy at willowbrook Methodist texted me this-

“There are patients in our ED who have been there for 5-6 days...I’m assuming on a vent and waiting for an ICU bed but dunno now. At least 40-50 ppl in ED w confirmed covid “

[GRHorn 105]

47 minutes ago, huge said:

I’ll be down in Bolivar this week.

It’s going to be a shit show and I can only hope to keep the unwashed masses* 6 feet away.

*Rednecks

It’s all gravy, baby

[GRHorn 105]

56 minutes ago, huge said:

I’ll be down in Bolivar this week.

It’s going to be a shit show and I can only hope to keep the unwashed masses* 6 feet away.

*Rednecks

But seriously, heading to Galveston after 4th of July.  Hope beaches are still open. 
 

2 hours ago, GreenspointTexas said:

From a crna friend at another houston surgical hospital:

 

“Apparently half of our cases today cancelled because they were Covid positive on screening, supposedly 20 cases 😳“

 

1 hour ago, Newdoc said:

Almost all of our presurgical positives are asymptomatic. We aren’t seeing those numbers but definitely some everyday.

This is interesting. In SA we’ve had almost no preop positives at my facilities. Hundreds of tests. It kind of backs up the theory here in SA that it’s younger and poorer population that doesn’t typically seek health care that is getting it. 

[huge 3788]

18 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

But seriously, heading to Galveston after 4th of July.  Hope beaches are still open. 

If they aren't open in Galveston just head across the ferry.  Bolivar won't close unless something drastic happens.

[Iceman 2628]

23 minutes ago, huge said:

If they aren't open in Galveston just head across the ferry.  Bolivar won't close unless something drastic happens.

depends how the trees hold up...

[SubliminalHorn 6648]

10 minutes ago, Iceman said:

depends how the trees hold up...

do you know how fat the average Texan is?

[Llano Estacado 1257]

do you know how fat the average Texan is?

We already have a COVID body weight bench press thread somewhere.

[SubliminalHorn 6648]

1 minute ago, Llano Estacado said:

 

We already have a COVID body weight bench press thread somewhere.

 

So it's actually mass that they're trying to put on?

[dcar00 14023]

memorial day BBQ's and protests were not a driver of cases.

[Shut up Lou Holtz 2003]

Arizona closed bars, movie theaters, gyms and water parks. 
 

Mayor Adler said yesterday he wants to do a 35 day shutdown followed by strict mask enforcement. 
 

I wish they’d make the decision already so people can figure out next steps financially and know what to plan for. And that doesn’t mean making a TP heb run like Austin seems to be doing...

[LebongJames 1781]

A 35 day shutdown of what? Just make masks mandatory. I understand shutting gyms and movie theaters.

I don’t think we need a complete shutdown. We are stuck with this for a while can’t completely shut down things again. LA has been locked down and they are seeing another spike right now

Edited June 30, 2020 by LebongJames

[atomheartbevo 89362]

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/protest-over-bar-shutdown-scheduled-for-11-a-m-at-texas-state-capitol/

Quote

A group of bar workers are staging a protest outside the Texas State Capitol at 11 a.m. Tuesday against Gov. Greg Abbott’s recent order to shutter bars due to a spike in COVID-19 cases.

Quote

Organizers stressed to participants that they need to wear masks and maintain social distance, but also said “we will only solve problems with numbers.”

Do something that could lead to an outbreak, to show that you are upset that your industry was penalized for contributing heavily to the current outbreak.

These organizers need to police themselves, and call out their fellow bars that were causing problems (the ones all over social media with no social distancing or masks), rather than bitch en masse.

[atomheartbevo 89362]

3 hours ago, Brew said:

It makes some sense in parks that have public restrooms, but they could always just lock the restrooms. From what we have seen at the beach, people are maintaining their distance from other groups, but you still have some pretty large groups getting together and hanging out. However, to your point if they want to get together, they are going to get together somewhere.

Kids have been all over the playground equipment.  All over it, at least in the parks near us.  And mask usage was only sporadic, with parents standing shoulder-to-shoulder and yapping away about who is banging who or whatever.

Edit: That was before the mask order, but still seeing kids on the equipment.

Edited June 30, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 89362]

7 minutes ago, LebongJames said:

A 35 day shutdown of what? Just make masks mandatory. I understand shutting gyms and movie theaters.

If gyms and movie theaters were causing problems, they would have been included in the bar shutdown order.

We've went to the YMCA a few times, even took the kids swimming once, and they were far more vigilant and cleaner than walking into a grocery store.  We had to be masked up, had temperature checks at the door, and were spread out, and they cleaned everything as soon as we were done.

Look at the rise in restaurant credit card spending (which includes bars), and it correlates with the major outbreaks.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/this-chart-shows-the-link-between-restaurant-spending-and-new-coronavirus-cases.html

 

[SuckitKevin 915]

2 hours ago, GreenspointTexas said:

My buddy at willowbrook Methodist texted me this-

“There are patients in our ED who have been there for 5-6 days...I’m assuming on a vent and waiting for an ICU bed but dunno now. At least 40-50 ppl in ED w confirmed covid “

Part of the problem that I’ve seen is that 40-50 ppl in the ER should be significantly less. I can’t tell you how many 911calls I’ve been on where the person only called because they got a positive Covid test result. Asymptomatic people think they need to call 911 or go to the ER simply because they are positive with no symptoms and are only spreading the virus unnecessarily. Common sense isn’t so common.

[GRHorn 105]

10 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Kids have been all over the playground equipment.  All over it, at least in the parks near us.  And mask usage was only sporadic, with parents standing shoulder-to-shoulder and yapping away about who is banging who or whatever.

Edit: That was before the mask order, but still seeing kids on the equipment.

Do you think kids should be allowed to play on park equipment?

[InkaUtexas 25426]

2 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

Do you think kids should be allowed to play on park equipment?

yes, but they must be in bubble wrap. 

[dcar00 14023]

22 minutes ago, LebongJames said:

A 35 day shutdown of what? Just make masks mandatory. I understand shutting gyms and movie theaters.

I don’t think we need a complete shutdown. We are stuck with this for a while can’t completely shut down things again. LA has been locked down and they are seeing another spike right now

that's unpossible!

[dcar00 14023]

talked to an ER Doc friend out of Dallas who said the numbers are climbing but they have capacity.  He's a doc so in general he is concerned but was fairly confident they'd get through this and wasn't at the point of tears.

[DaysOff 7821]

50 year old brother in law got a positive result yesterday from a test 10 days ago. One day of fever, loss of smell, and general tiredness. His wife has identical symptoms and isn't even going to bother with the test, but I'm going to count her. Two closer to herd immunity.

Both teamOpositve

[Pimphand 5587]

2 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

50 year old brother in law got a positive result yesterday from a test 10 days ago. One day of fever, loss of smell, and general tiredness. His wife has identical symptoms and isn't even going to bother with the test, but I'm going to count her. Two closer to herd immunity.

Both teamOpositve

Let's get Stiglitz over here you clearly don't have enough fear

[Anastasis 23375]

4 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

Both teamOpositve

I put a post to a twitter thread where the genetics were being discussed on the COVID medical thread.  Appears that the ABO thing is not being replicated by some of the more recent genetics work.  But to be clear, I posted that in the thread to see if somebody could translate was the twitter nerds were talking about, so I may have that wrong. 

Edited June 30, 2020 by Anastasis

[bolverk 29360]

Quick glance at what industries are causing workplace related clusters in Travis:

KXAN Investigators reached out to Austin Public Health for any current data they could provide on positive COVID-19 cases at local construction sites, and learned general contractors top the list of clusters for all industries in Travis County outside of nursing homes.

Link & video

[Brisketexan 104465]

21 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Quick glance at what industries are causing workplace related clusters in Travis:

KXAN Investigators reached out to Austin Public Health for any current data they could provide on positive COVID-19 cases at local construction sites, and learned general contractors top the list of clusters for all industries in Travis County outside of nursing homes.

Link & video

[Johnny Sack] Clearly, all of the guys working for contractors were out protesting. That's obvious. [/Johnny Sack]

[Hate 20102]

[surly cabal] Clearly, all of the guys working for contractors were muh freedoms guys. That's obvious. [/surly cabal]

 

Also true.

[whithou 149]

Update from my hospital in Houston. We are opening up another ICU and downgrade unit for COVID patients. Currently our four ICUs are full. For the patients that are in our emergency center I've heard from nurses there that they are reaching out to hospitals in places like College Station and Huntsville to take our COVID ICU patients since we are out of space. I worked overtime this week to make up for how short staffed we are as nurses are starting to have symptoms of COVID and calling in. We are pulling nurses from downgrade floors to take our patients, which is super unsafe since they don't have ICU experience. We did stop elective procedures this week on my unit but I'm worried that these patients that aren't able to get cardiac caths done will eventually come in emergently after having a heart attack. We had several of these the first time we shut down elective procedures. 

 

 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

6 minutes ago, whithou said:

Update from my hospital in Houston. We are opening up another ICU and downgrade unit for COVID patients. Currently our four ICUs are full. For the patients that are in our emergency center I've heard from nurses there that they are reaching out to hospitals in places like College Station and Huntsville to take our COVID ICU patients since we are out of space. I worked overtime this week to make up for how short staffed we are as nurses are starting to have symptoms of COVID and calling in. We are pulling nurses from downgrade floors to take our patients, which is super unsafe since they don't have ICU experience. We did stop elective procedures this week on my unit but I'm worried that these patients that aren't able to get cardiac caths done will eventually come in emergently after having a heart attack. We had several of these the first time we shut down elective procedures. 

 

 

you don't sound tanned, ready, and rested.

in all seriousness, that sounds like a mess. sending overflow to smaller communities (that are undoubtedly going to see a surge in cases IMO) seems like a recipe for disaster. what a fucking mess.

[BradInATX 9208]

42 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Quick glance at what industries are causing workplace related clusters in Travis:

KXAN Investigators reached out to Austin Public Health for any current data they could provide on positive COVID-19 cases at local construction sites, and learned general contractors top the list of clusters for all industries in Travis County outside of nursing homes.

Link & video

Am I reading that right and the total positive cases in all of those clusters is only 61? 

[bolverk 29360]

1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

Am I reading that right and the total positive cases in all of those clusters is only 61? 

That's how I understood it, but it sounded like these are the only ones they'd been able to identify for that time period so tracing may be a challenge.

[ABSR 5289]

18 hours ago, Lobo said:

Goy=Gentile?  I did not know that.  I'm glad they clarified that up because when I see an Alex Jones/Alt-Right protest, I immediately think "Where's Mordecai?"  

So poor, uneducated, naive, and Anti-Semitic?  

Goy is a Jewish word (Yiddish word) for Non-Jew.  It historically had a negative connotation for outsider, etc, and may still in secular Orthodox communities, but for the general Jewish population and outside it is generally not used (at least openly) because of the historically disparaging nature.  

I would identify myself as Goy to Jewish friends jokingly, and they could do the same, but if someone Jewish who you were not friendly with used the term toward you it would generally be meant disparagingly.  I would say using it is a fairly uncommon practice in the Reform/Conservative Jewish crowd.  They would just say "he/she is not Jewish" if that was the question.

For the protesters I am not sure why they would use it, but it comes across as a less joking appropriation, and for an anti-mask or anti-BLM protest it is a little off message.  If just Alt Right protest then maybe veiled antisemitism was intended.