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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

justhookit

By justhookit
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whithou
whithou

It has been a disheartening journey and it is only starting. I did not realize how there really is no definitive treatment for the illness until we got COVID patients. When they first come on our unit

South Austin
South Austin

He didn't get COVID.  He just ran out of immunity.

safe sex
safe sex

I cannot stress this enough for anyone who lives in Austin (although this really applies to pretty much everywhere at this point) BE SAFE. What this means is don't get on your motorcycles. D

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elfenix

elfenix 34744

Posted
Posted

I've posted this in both the DT and CR main threads but it's worth another post for those who haven't seen it before. It's a site by an epidemiologist and a graphics designer that explains some of the basics behind fighting an epidemic with a lot of little simulations that build through the scroll to illustrate how counter measures work and various scenarios - such as immunity that only lasts a couple years and summer-winter differences (you'll see what they really mean by second wave)

https://ncase.me/covid-19/

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irishtexan

irishtexan 11711

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We are in a bit of a quarantine relationship with another family. Both families are strict about wearing masks in public, only go to the store once a week, try to limit our exposure and interactions with others as much as possible. We all decided to rent a house in Galveston/Jamaica Beach this last weekend. The beach we were at wasn't too bad and we always had a good 30-50 feet of space between us and other beach goers. So that was nice. Public beaches were more packed. Had to make one beer run and saw that maybe 5% of people were wearing masks in the store. Unbelievable. When we drove out today we noticed that pretty much no one was wearing masks as they were going into and out of public buildings. No physical distancing at crosswalks. Folks on the island are just not taking this seriously at all. 

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Newdoc

Newdoc 3511

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, bschoolprof said:

Logarithmic spread is the inverse (since log is the inverse of exp), which would be a good thing.  

True. Both have a steep slope up but logarithmic growth does tail off but that is with a y axis on a log scale which is kind of weird to use with cumulative numbers. Viral disease usually does this after it starts running out of fuel.

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Liquor and Poker

Liquor and Poker 3659

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, irishtexan said:

We are in a bit of a quarantine relationship with another family. Both families are strict about wearing masks in public, only go to the store once a week, try to limit our exposure and interactions with others as much as possible. We all decided to rent a house in Galveston/Jamaica Beach this last weekend. The beach we were at wasn't too bad and we always had a good 30-50 feet of space between us and other beach goers. So that was nice. Public beaches were more packed. Had to make one beer run and saw that maybe 5% of people were wearing masks in the store. Unbelievable. When we drove out today we noticed that pretty much no one was wearing masks as they were going into and out of public buildings. No physical distancing at crosswalks. Folks on the island are just not taking this seriously at all. 

There’s a lot of buzz among island residents bitching that they’ve been invaded by “COVID truthers” who are fucking things up for the rest of them. 

We were at our place there this weekend auditioning painters, and they were all pissed that none of the temporary folks would wear masks even when requested. 

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SHOOTER12

SHOOTER12 8886

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I've believed for a while that there would be a second wave, and I think it will be pretty bad.  Although I've noticed a big improvement lately, it seems like a lot of people said "yay it's over". when things started opening up, especially here in McLennan County.

While I personally have not checked any stats, I was told that the county is now under mandatory mask guidelines as of this past Saturday.  I was given this information when I checked into the motel last night.  The desk clerk said it was due to active cases going from 35 to 180 in a matter of a few days.  The 7-11 I usually hit is also closed until further notice due to nearly the entire staff having contracted coronavirus.

Best of luck to all out there and stay safe.

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NorthLoop

NorthLoop 14463

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, SHOOTER12 said:

I've believed for a while that there would be a second wave, and I think it will be pretty bad.  Although I've noticed a big improvement lately, it seems like a lot of people said "yay it's over". when things started opening up, especially here in McLennan County.

While I personally have not checked any stats, I was told that the county is now under mandatory mask guidelines as of this past Saturday.  I was given this information when I checked into the motel last night.  The desk clerk said it was due to active cases going from 35 to 180 in a matter of a few days.  The 7-11 I usually hit is also closed until further notice due to nearly the entire staff having contracted coronavirus.

Best of luck to all out there and stay safe.

Whatever # wave you wanna call it, the wave that hits in September a couple weeks after school starts is gonna be the biggest shitshow of the year. 

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, BradInATX said:


Are you going to answer my question up thread or continue to duck any genuine attempts to have a conversation, and do nothing but be a useless drive by edgy teenage girl of a poster?

Slorch? 

If you're going to come in and try to participate in the conversation, then you need to actually attempt to defend your dumb ass little drive-by posts. Otherwise sit down and shut the fuck up, sand aggy.

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bolverk

bolverk 30313

Posted
Posted

Y'all might recall on the other threads, @Anastasisperiodically posting the Texas hot spot map from the NYTimes, which has been useful for contextualizing the outbreak showing previous outbreaks being isolated primarily to prison/meat processing towns.

Right now, it's starting to look pretty fucking disturbing across the state (no paywall).

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/texas-coronavirus-cases.html

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Scheiss Meister

Scheiss Meister 8466

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Captain Ron said:

First wave, second wave, NorthLoop's right, it really doesn't matter (BTW look at the graphs, this isn't a 2nd wave).

I just gotta say, something has to happen to the numbers soon down there (I'm in Mass) or this is going to really get out of control.

Out of control is what Texas is all about.

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Hate

Hate 20247

Posted
Posted
Fuck it! I just went ahead and had a heart attack Friday to avert my attention from this mess for a couple of days. But I fucked up and survived, so here I am.

Holy shit. Glad you made it. I’m kind of disappointed you didn’t start a “so I’m having a heart attack” thread while it was going on. Hope you get better fast!
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gurt

gurt 796

Posted
Posted

Not sure if this has been covered, but what does a hospitalization count as?  If somebody goes to the ER and says I think I have COVID, then gets tested and recommended to just go home and isolate, does that count?  Or is it only if they are being admitted due to severe enough symptoms to require staying?

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, gurt said:

Not sure if this has been covered, but what does a hospitalization count as?  If somebody goes to the ER and says I think I have COVID, then gets tested and recommended to just go home and isolate, does that count?  Or is it only if they are being admitted due to severe enough symptoms to require staying?

 

Admitted.

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WBT

WBT 20966

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, irishtexan said:

We are in a bit of a quarantine relationship with another family. Both families are strict about wearing masks in public, only go to the store once a week, try to limit our exposure and interactions with others as much as possible. We all decided to rent a house in Galveston/Jamaica Beach this last weekend. The beach we were at wasn't too bad and we always had a good 30-50 feet of space between us and other beach goers. So that was nice. Public beaches were more packed. Had to make one beer run and saw that maybe 5% of people were wearing masks in the store. Unbelievable. When we drove out today we noticed that pretty much no one was wearing masks as they were going into and out of public buildings. No physical distancing at crosswalks. Folks on the island are just not taking this seriously at all. 

Folks on the island are tourists, like you, spreading their exposure history from around the state.

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irishtexan

irishtexan 11711

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, WBT said:

Folks on the island are tourists, like you, spreading their exposure history around the state.

Again, we take this seriously. The fathers of the two families took antibody tests before we left and we were both negative. We all wear masks in public. We all work from home. We booked a home that had a two-day window between reservations to allow for cleaning and disinfection. We went to one convenience store over three days. And we did not interact with anyone else while there, keeping 30-50 feet of distance when outside on the beach between us and strangers. If you think that's insufficient and that everyone needs to stay in their houses 24/7, then we have a difference in risk assessment and risk toleration. I view that behavior to be pretty low risk of contracting the virus, or potentially spreading the virus taking into consideration the precautions we were taking.  

With two adults working from home and two children ages 4 and 6, many folks like us will require periodic breaks and getaways to simply maintain sanity. I don't expect everyone to stay home all day every day for the next 18 months while we keep our fingers crossed that an effective vaccine or treatment is invented. I do hope that when people go out to try to live their lives in the middle of a pandemic, they would take a few more precautions.  

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UT_OB1

UT_OB1 2266

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, irishtexan said:

Again, we take this seriously. The fathers of the two families took antibody tests before we left and we were both negative. We all wear masks in public. We all work from home. We booked a home that had a two-day window between reservations to allow for cleaning and disinfection. We went to one convenience store over three days. And we did not interact with anyone else while there, keeping 30-50 feet of distance when outside on the beach between us and strangers. If you think that's insufficient and that everyone needs to stay in their houses 24/7, then we have a difference in risk assessment and risk toleration. I view that behavior to be pretty low risk of contracting the virus, or potentially spreading the virus taking into consideration the precautions we were taking.  

With two adults working from home and two children ages 4 and 6, many folks like us will require periodic breaks and getaways to simply maintain sanity. I don't expect everyone to stay home all day every day for the next 18 months while we keep our fingers crossed that an effective vaccine or treatment is invented. I do hope that when people go out to try to live their lives in the middle of a pandemic, they would take a few more precautions.  

I've had the opposite experience when I've been at Galveston stores (most recently a week ago), but my stops have been at places like HD.  I would not be surprised if there is a difference between people that live in the area vs people coming for a vacation.

I'll also add when we stopped by the public part of the beach Tuesday or Wednesday night, everyone was very spread out.  I think the closest I saw anyone pass someone by was 8-10'.  Granted, I haven't been there in person on the weekend (because F that), but driving by it has looked like it always does - lots of people, but not forced to cram together.

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justhookit

justhookit 4206

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“Only” 85 new Nueces County cases over the weekend. 1 new Port A case but they are testing a bunch of people here today. The good news is that while our mask ordinance doesn’t start until Wednesday, I was just at the grocery store and mask usage is way,way, way up from last week already.

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Iceman

Iceman 2978

Posted
Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, NorthLoop said:

Who gives a fuck what wave one person thinks it is versus another. It matters zero.

Yeah but the real tsunami is still coming...#blatantsarcasmnotdirectedatnorthloop

 

otherwise, you’re spot on.

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F250

F250 29195

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, bolverk said:

Y'all might recall on the other threads, @Anastasisperiodically posting the Texas hot spot map from the NYTimes, which has been useful for contextualizing the outbreak showing previous outbreaks being isolated primarily to prison/meat processing towns.

Right now, it's starting to look pretty fucking disturbing across the state (no paywall).

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/texas-coronavirus-cases.html

Those post reopening numbers.

spacer.png

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23716

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, bolverk said:

Y'all might recall on the other threads, @Anastasisperiodically posting the Texas hot spot map from the NYTimes, which has been useful for contextualizing the outbreak showing previous outbreaks being isolated primarily to prison/meat processing towns.

Right now, it's starting to look pretty fucking disturbing across the state (no paywall).

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/texas-coronavirus-cases.html

For reference, here is a screengrab I pulled 06/10 compared to today's.

 

NYT-hotspots-061020.png

hotspot062220.png

 

 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15452

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, SHOOTER12 said:

I've believed for a while that there would be a second wave, and I think it will be pretty bad.  Although I've noticed a big improvement lately, it seems like a lot of people said "yay it's over". when things started opening up, especially here in McLennan County.

While I personally have not checked any stats, I was told that the county is now under mandatory mask guidelines as of this past Saturday.  I was given this information when I checked into the motel last night.  The desk clerk said it was due to active cases going from 35 to 180 in a matter of a few days.  The 7-11 I usually hit is also closed until further notice due to nearly the entire staff having contracted coronavirus.

Best of luck to all out there and stay safe.

Which 7-11??  UP/35??

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Skipper

Skipper 6411

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Dallas +454 in new cases announced today.  New record high.  So that's a strong start to what I fully expect to be a really shitty week for Dallas COVID data.  Tuesday has historically been the big day for data aggregation so that could be interesting.  And we should get more detailed COVID Monitoring and Dallas hospitalization data tomorrow as well (although they were 24 hours late last time).

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted (edited)

State just admitted new cases/day is now twice what it was during our "holy shit" phase several weeks back.  

But thankfully bingo parlors, skating rinks, and bowling alleys are still open..  Because that's how you get an economy back on track, those are your industry sluggers.

You fucking imbeciles.  

"is, like, an infringement of freedom"      Didn't realize he was from the San Fernando Valley.  

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90636

Posted
Posted

Paraphrasing

1. All Texans should follow the protocols we've learned - stay at home if you can, social distancing, sanitize, wear a mask.

2. Appropriate authorities are increasing enforcement, mentions TABC closing bars.  Counties closing river park operations.  Requiring masks in congregated areas.

3. Surging testing in areas that maybe hotspots, with CDC and Texas National Guard.

4. Working with hospitals to ensure they can treat anybody positive.

5. Wearing a mask is infringing our freedom (I think that's what he said), but we really should wear them, because if we don't, we'll have to close businesses.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90636

Posted
Posted

Texas Health Services Commissioner wants us to really wear masks, "it's a really great idea".  Says we need to regain our "sense of community" that we had earlier in the outbreak.  

Another doctor is up, and says the capacity in hospitals is being tested, but the capacity is still strong.     Says if we don't do what we need to do, then we will see a rise in hospitalizations and will need additional measures.

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Viper

Viper 12219

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, kevwun said:

He said he knows some people feel it's infringing on their freedoms, but that it works.  Asking people to voluntarily take precautions isn't going to slow the spread.  He's pissing in the wind.

He's not, tabc is shutting down bars, but he's leaving it to cities to make and enforce masks because not every city is a hot spot

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106874

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

 

 

That seems like it's likely the biggest factor in lower mortality rates of this round of infection -- the people catching it (at a higher rate than anyone was before) are the age group that is less likely to die.

But problems remain with 1) a large number of them still requiring hospitalization, 2) we don't know the long-term negative health effects from these infections, and 3) every infected person is another vector for more infection.

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