COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[bschoolprof 6,232]

This just kind of illustrates the reporting problem.  So "Texas" reports 21 deaths.  Dallas reports 20 deaths.   I highly doubt only 1 other death in the State.  How the hell have we not managed to sync up reporting?  Like, I dunno, every County has to provide data they will release that day to the State by 2 PM so the State can release at 5PM.  Doesn't seem that difficult. 

Even that Dallas number is likely on a lag too, and includes deaths aggregated over several days. States that report date of death (MA used to) make this very apparent. I don’t mind reporting lags; I just wish date of death were reported publicly.

[SHOOTER12 8,787]

5 hours ago, Wally Pryor said:

What's the dillio here?

[SHOOTER12 8,787]

3 hours ago, South Austin said:

I’m concerned that young man may run out of gas.

Lol, I saw that too.

[Anastasis 23,390]

3 hours ago, South Austin said:

I’m concerned that young man may run out of gas.

Words that have crossed the lips of your mom many times before. 

[htown85 159]

54 minutes ago, Hanrahan said:

 

I don’t have a narrative. I was one of the ones early on saying this would be a whole bunch of nothing, just like the chicken little Ebola thread a few years ago. I admit to being wrong.

I got scared in March when no one knew if this thing was spreading like crazy in Texas like it was in New York. It wasn’t and l thought the worst was behind us in May. The mid-to-late June numbers for Texas are pretty scary. We’re on an upward trajectory that’s not showing signs of abating. Daily numbers will fluctuate.

 

My comment wasn't meant to be a jab at you - more a jab at our society as a whole.

[Walte464 450]

Hidalgo county had 440 test positive with 11 deaths today.

[Skipper 6,100]

1 hour ago, bschoolprof said:

Even that Dallas number is likely on a lag too, and includes deaths aggregated over several days. States that report date of death (MA used to) make this very apparent. I don’t mind reporting lags; I just wish date of death were reported publicly.

Oh for sure.  Noticed that early on when the teenager died and news interviewed the family and said she passed on either Friday or Saturday but it wasn't in the report until Tuesday.  For whatever reason, Tuesday has always been the big death aggregation day.  It used to be the same with cases as well although that seems to have somewhat leveled out.

[Message Board User 12,389]

26 minutes ago, Walte464 said:

Hidalgo county had 440 test positive with 11 deaths today.

Yep - the valley is getting crushed.  Would love to see numbers by county per capita because Hidalgo has to be up there.

 

[Walte464 450]

2 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

Yep - the valley is getting crushed.  Would love to see numbers by county per capita because Hidalgo has to be up there.

 

Hearing Cameron county is going to be huge today, waiting for the numbers to be released.

[Message Board User 12,389]

4 minutes ago, Walte464 said:

Hearing Cameron county is going to be huge today, waiting for the numbers to be released.

 

[GRHorn 105]

Some interesting notes from the SA update today. 
 

815 critical care nurses on the way. 250 from the Navy. 565 from the state. #tannedrestedandready

159 vented patients in San Antonio. 55 vents still in surplus. Not sure if that’s for the whole city or just the hospital system sending out this update. 
 

One to two months supply of iso gowns currently. One months worth of masks. Will continue reprocessing. 

[BradInATX 9,208]

1 minute ago, GRHorn said:

Some interesting notes from the SA update today. 
 

815 critical care nurses on the way. 250 from the Navy. 565 from the state. #tannedrestedandready

159 vented patients in San Antonio. 55 vents still in surplus. Not sure if that’s for the whole city or just the hospital system sending out this update. 
 

One to two months supply of iso gowns currently. One months worth of masks. Will continue reprocessing. 

 

Are the vents even really the stress point anymore now that the treatments have moved away from defaulting to them? Seems like staff and beds are the real worry now.

[GRHorn 105]

2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

Are the vents even really the stress point anymore now that the treatments have moved away from defaulting to them? Seems like staff and beds are the real worry now.

I don’t think so, but I included it because it had a hard number.
 

One of the smaller hospitals I work at today converted it’s Pacu to a mini Covid ICU. It’s definitely an issue here. 

[justhookit 4,174]

22 hours ago, justhookit said:

So Nueces County new cases once again at 205. ICU up from 18 to 29. Hospitalizations up from 80 to 93.  I THINK this is a lag from not reporting those hospital/icu numbers yesterday. So it’s not quite as bad as it might look.

However we’ve been reporting new case numbers every day and it’s been steady around 200 for 6 days now. I’ve got a growing concern that this is being caused because we are at or very near our testing limits and not because we are “flat”.

Daily bad news update out of Nueces. Record new cases at 274. Hospitalizations up to 105. ICU to 33. Hopefully the trend holds and the majority of these cases are young and handle this well without having to go to the hospital. If not, look out over the next 2-3 weeks. And we have to at least level this spike off.

[Skipper 6,100]

Dallas detailed data released this evening just confirms what we all knew.  Spreading rapidly here.   I actually don't think I've left my house other than walks in neighborhood for like 10 days now that I think about it so really no idea how things are, but hope people are taking it more seriously.  

[Texas Jeff 1,932]

If you check out healthweather.us, they are showing that this outbreak may be centered right now around Austin/San Antonio, the hill country, and areas going south down to the border and coast.  Those areas of Texas are showing higher temperatures than the rest of the state.  DFW and Houston show elevated temps but not as bad as central and south Texas.  Texas as a whole is "hotter" than the surrounding states, indicating more illness.

 

[Deej 76,524]

Yeah. Fuck. 

 

[Dbeasy 14,962]

Pet peeve. Charts with no legend.

[BradInATX 9,208]

Just now, Dbeasy said:

Pet peeve. Charts with no legend.

 

The caption is shitty too

[Walte464 450]

2 hours ago, Message Board User said:

 

105 cases reported in Starr county. 650 total cases for the valley today.

[Mitch Cumsteen 18,523]

1268 cases in San Antonio today. Omfg. Not a typo. 1268. Last in literacy, first in herd immunity. I'm never going to get to leave my house

[DDD Dad 14,243]

Someone should check in on [mention]ChickenSandwich [/mention]

He hasn’t posted Kung Flu numbers lately.

[B00M 6,280]

1 hour ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

1268 cases in San Antonio today. Omfg. Not a typo. 1268. Last in literacy, first in herd immunity. I'm never going to get to leave my house

But at least you have all the wonderful decor to stare at while contemplating life

[bluto 4,880]

Dallas mayor has been giving updates on healthcare system numbers and they’ve remained pretty much level for about 3 weeks. Friend of mine works at parkland and their covid px count is up from about 80 to 140 in the last 10 days, so something seems off. Then I came across this article that makes it sound like the Dallas icu bed count is fluffed by pediatrics and neonatal


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcdfw.com/investigations/nbc-5-exclusive-icu-bed-count-missing-inconsistent-as-covid-19-patients-fill-north-texas-hospitals/2395910/%3famp

[Helobious 9,480]

Is there any benefit to getting tested even if you feel sick but not dying? I’m fine now, but if I get mildly illl I’m not gonna wait in a 5+ hour line with other sick people to get tested for something that’s untreatable. I think the only numbers worth looking at are hospitalizations and deaths, & hospital space. 

[washparkhorn 9,934]

1 hour ago, Helobious said:

Is there any benefit to getting tested even if you feel sick but not dying? I’m fine now, but if I get mildly illl I’m not gonna wait in a 5+ hour line with other sick people to get tested for something that’s untreatable. I think the only numbers worth looking at are hospitalizations and deaths, & hospital space. 

Sure. Imagine there is a guy out there right now - sick and has symptoms of Covid - and he decides to go to work rather than going to the doctor. He coughs all over the office bathroom - where you lay your keys. You wash your hands and pick up your keys when a horsefly lands on your nose - you bat at your nose with the keys in hand causing your nose to hurt like you broke it. You rub your nose with your hands - - - and the time clock starts ticking for you.

If sick, get tested. Early treatment. Plus you might save many lives who aren't ready to die yet.

It's a great question. We shouldn't be afraid of data. The more data the better. That is how we are going to beat it. 

[Zepol87 9,168]

1 hour ago, bluto said:

Dallas mayor has been giving updates on healthcare system numbers and they’ve remained pretty much level for about 3 weeks. Friend of mine works at parkland and their covid px count is up from about 80 to 140 in the last 10 days, so something seems off. Then I came across this article that makes it sound like the Dallas icu bed count is fluffed by pediatrics and neonatal


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcdfw.com/investigations/nbc-5-exclusive-icu-bed-count-missing-inconsistent-as-covid-19-patients-fill-north-texas-hospitals/2395910/%3famp

My neighbor is a nurse at methodist. She said it has been bad for almost a week now at her hospital. Bunch of other nurses tested positive and she is supposed to get her results tomorrow 

[Bartles 769]

5 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

If sick, get tested. Early treatment. Plus you might save many lives who aren't ready to die yet.

It's a great question. We shouldn't be afraid of data. The more data the better. That is how we are going to beat it. 

Agree about the data, but in real life I'd go the other way on that testing advice. You can also save lives by keeping yourself isolated at home until the symptoms have been gone for two weeks. That's how it was in the northeast when testing without a doctor's order was impossible (as far as I know, it still is). If you have trouble breathing, go to the ER for sure. But basic cold symptoms, I think a ton of people just rode it out at home.

[NoName 16,286]

15 hours ago, B00M said:

Just curious, did y'all consider cross-training nurses to prepare for this? It seems like all the nurses and doctors knew there'd be a nursing shortage. 

Good luck and thank you!

you can't just cross train for ICU, you can in a ton of places but two that are let's say more difficult to cross train for are ICU and OB Units.

it's a different skill set for much higher acuity level patient with a much lower nurse:patient ratio (he talked about it above)

 

Edited July 1, 2020 by NoName

[Message Board User 12,389]

6 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

Sure. Imagine there is a guy out there right now - sick and has symptoms of Covid - and he decides to go to work rather than going to the doctor. He coughs all over the office bathroom - where you lay your keys. You wash your hands and pick up your keys when a horsefly lands on your nose - you bat at your nose with the keys in hand causing your nose to hurt like you broke it. You rub your nose with your hands - - - and the time clock starts ticking for you.

If sick, get tested. Early treatment. Plus you might save many lives who aren't ready to die yet.

It's a great question. We shouldn't be afraid of data. The more data the better. That is how we are going to beat it. 

This may be great advice on a message board and on the interwebs, but the problem occurs in real life where if I get tested today I may not get the results back for 1-2 weeks.

Are you expected to quarantine and miss work for 1-2 weeks while waiting for results?  Tell that to the working stiff or single mom who knows they will get fired if they ask for 1-2 weeks off because they may be positive.

The lack of rapid testing is a major problem and a main driver of the spread.

[CooterBrown 17,901]

10 hours ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

1268 cases in San Antonio today. Omfg. Not a typo. 1268. Last in literacy, first in herd immunity. I'm never going to get to leave my house

Well, San Antonio has always wanted to be first in something and step out from behind Austin, Houston, and Dallas' shadows. Congratulations. It's your moment to shine.

[Brisketexan 104,537]

Friend of ours is a chaplain at a hospital in a smaller community in CenTex.  He's had a rough week.  Yesterday, they intubated a 27 yr old.  And a 50 yr old died.  And their unit is stacked full.  And it just keeps piling up.

Wear a mask.  Avoid being around other people in a large crowd, or at a close distance.

[StruggleBus 3,922]

22 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

Well, San Antonio has always wanted to be first in something and step out from behind Austin, Houston, and Dallas' shadows. Congratulations. It's your moment to shine.

We’ve been number one in basketball and tacos for decades, bitch

[Hate 20,103]

Wear a mask.  Avoid being around other people in a large crowd, or at a close distance.

Just out of curiosity, would you go to another protest?

I’m not saying that the protests caused this spike (although I do find it difficult to believe there wasn’t some virus spreading around the country), but do you in hindsight think it was wise to go? I’m not picking a fight or assessing blame.

[Captainant 27,403]

6 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

We’ve been number one in basketball and tacos for decades, bitch

It hurts me to say, but it's been a minute since Los Spurs have been on top. SA tacos are undefeated though

[Brisketexan 104,537]

9 minutes ago, Hate said:

 

Just out of curiosity, would you go to another protest?

I’m not saying that the protests caused this spike (although I do find it difficult to believe there wasn’t some virus spreading around the country), but do you in hindsight think it was wise to go? I’m not picking a fight or assessing blame.

 

Under the right circumstances, I would.  The one we attended had near 100% mask use, and the people were not packed closely together.  I wouldn't go to one with unmasked participants, or tightly packed bodies.  And yes, I think it was worth it.  I mean, if you want to boil it down, we chose an incremental risk of our health for what I believe is a fight for the soul and future of our country, the country I'd like to leave for my children.  I think that risk was worth it, and still is.  But understand, I never thought the risk was fake, or a hoax -- we went in eyes-wide-open.

For the record, I don't think that either set of protests (the re-open protests, which while the participants weren't masked, they were mostly outdoors and not right on top of each other, and the BLM protests) meaningfully contributed to the spikes.

If you look at the demographics seeing the spike - young people, and working class people (many hispanic) - that indicates that the bulk of the spread is from close proximity, unmasked, in either social settings (bars etc.) or work (contractors, warehouse employees).  I'm sure there are protesters in there, but it's not the big driver.  I'm sure there's a case or two from a grocery trip, but that's not the driver.

Edited July 1, 2020 by Brisketexan

[Telegraph_it 3,353]

There are too many unknowns and variables to say definitively one way or another that protests did or did not increase the spread of the virus. The fact that once again people are trying to score political points off this shows you everything that is wrong with political discourse in this country.

For example, the cities that were hit with large protests could have seen a decrease in spread because many non-protestors chose to stay in. Or, if majority of protestors trended young, perhaps those that were infected had minor symptoms and never got a test. Adding further to this, young people are also more likely to do riskier activities like go to a bar. So how could you ever clearly establish a person was infected at a protest or at a bar with friends the following day?

The only thing I've seen that is somewhat definitive of some spread due to protests is HPD noted they saw an increase in infections within their police force after the protests. 

I still think beaches, trails, and parks should be open.

[royiv 9,145]

1 minute ago, Telegraph_it said:

The only thing I've seen that is somewhat definitive of some spread due to protests is HPD noted they saw an increase in infections within their police force after the protests. 

This reminds me of a photo I saw on the Chronicle's website during the protests. Apparently HPD was using Metro buses as staging areas for cops to rest, cool off, get a bottle of water, etc. The photo I saw was of a bus full of cops and not a single mask in sight. At the time, it made me think that was a COVID breakout waiting to happen.

[Samson's Wig 3,175]

39 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

We’ve been number one in basketball and tacos for decades, bitch

Don't forget teen pregnancy!

[InkaUtexas 25,486]

15 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

I still think beaches, trails, and parks should be open.

Some. One of the areas pushing the growth in my county was a single park on the river. This is where people congregate, light up the bbq and drink beer while the kids swim and float in the river. 

Some parks should be opened but it is just too damn hard to enforce where people are hanging out vs. running/walking or cycling.  

[Captainant 27,403]

17 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

So how could you ever clearly establish a person was infected at a protest or at a bar with friends the following day?

There's this thing called contact tracing

[The Dog 43,785]

[Telegraph_it 3,353]

6 minutes ago, Captainant said:

There's this thing called contact tracing

Yes, and we are doing an excellent job with that. 

[dcar00 14,028]

1 hour ago, StruggleBus said:

We’ve been number one in basketball and tacos for decades, bitch

so racist

[Captain Ron 12,793]

8 hours ago, Zepol87 said:

My neighbor is a nurse at methodist. She said it has been bad for almost a week now at her hospital. Bunch of other nurses tested positive and she is supposed to get her results tomorrow 

A friend of mine is a nurse down in Hays, she said the staff at her hospital was starting to get really lax before this spike and they started to have cases going through their staff.

 

2 hours ago, CooterBrown said:

Well, San Antonio has always wanted to be first in something and step out from behind Austin, Houston, and Dallas' shadows. Congratulations. It's your moment to shine.

Given some of the lists I've seen San Antonio on, I'm pretty sure those shadows (ok, maybe Houston's shadow) won't cover all of San Antonio.

[TwiceHorn 31,240]

21 hours ago, Wally Pryor said:

Die. In. A. Fire.

[South Austin 52,105]

3 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Die. In. A. Fire. An. ICU.

Fixed.

[Hate 20,103]

Die. In. A. Fire.

Who is she and why do you want her to DIAF?

[elfenix 34,169]

3 minutes ago, Hate said:

Who is she and why do you want her to DIAF?

dallas salon operator

[Guest Lobo]

I am so proud that we so many Lone Warriors helping Texas during this challenging time.