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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

justhookit

By justhookit
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whithou
whithou

It has been a disheartening journey and it is only starting. I did not realize how there really is no definitive treatment for the illness until we got COVID patients. When they first come on our unit

South Austin
South Austin

He didn't get COVID.  He just ran out of immunity.

safe sex
safe sex

I cannot stress this enough for anyone who lives in Austin (although this really applies to pretty much everywhere at this point) BE SAFE. What this means is don't get on your motorcycles. D

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ABSR

ABSR 5289

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Parliament said:
6 hours ago, CooterBrown said:
https://www.austinchronicle.com/daily/music/2020-07-01/in-austin-where-nearly-all-concerts-are-canceled-vanilla-ice-set-to-perform-friday/

In Austin, Where Nearly All Concerts are Canceled, Vanilla Ice Set to Perform Friday

Relive the Nineties, “When we didn’t have coronavirus!”

BY KEVIN CURTIN, 3:35PM, WED. JUL. 1, 2020

Gov. Greg Abbott’s executive order last Friday closing all bars due to an expected surge in COVID-19 cases effectively put an end to those in-person concerts still taking place locally. One notable exception: Vanilla Ice at Emerald Point Bar & Grill on Friday.
vanilla_ice_flyer.jpg A promotional flyer for Vanilla Ice's July 3 performance at Emerald Point Bar & Grill.  
The massive, multi-level marina structure on Lake Travis is categorized as a restaurant because at least 51% of its sales are food and, while Abbott’s order shut down bars, it only reduced restaurant capacity to 50%. A couple other local venues, Stubb’s and the Far Out Lounge, also remain open because of their restaurant designation. According to an interview with Emerald Point general manager Matt Norcia in May, the business maintains a load card for 4,000 people but can scale up to 5,000 when they open the beach area.
The Independence Day Throwback Beach Party promoter, Matt Wade, told Chronicle reporter Rachel Rascoe via text that the show’s capacity will be 2,500. Tickets, selling on Eventbrite, range $25-$300.
Vanilla Ice, aka Dallas native Rob Van Winkle, leans heavily on celebration of Nineties throwback culture in his promotion. An Instagram post from earlier this week showed footage from a packed concert, along with the caption: “I can’t wait to get back to this. The Nineties were the best. We didn’t have coronavirus, or cell phones, or computers.” He goes on to call the era, “The last of the great decades.”
Emerald Point made the news in May when local hard rock cover band LC Rock posted a photo of a dense crowd not wearing masks cheering for them at Emerald Point. At the time, Norcia said the image didn’t represent the actual distancing of the audience. He also noted that the restaurant passed consistent checks from the Fire Marshall as well as the Travis County Sheriff’s Office.
On July 4, fellow Nineties hit-makers Color Me Badd – best known for their single “I Want to Sex You Up” – are scheduled to perform at Emerald Point.

Read more  

Well that's the Sign of the Apocalypse right there.

To be fair, they will likely stay below any mandated limit on gatherings.  What is it now, 50?

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elfenix

elfenix 34169

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, NorthLoop said:

FWIW, while waiting for my curbside order at HEB in NB today I saw 100% mask usage. Granted it's mandated here but I was still pleasantly surprised. 

HEB has mandated masks in all stores now.  been giving masks away at the entrances down here in houston, i imagine doing the same in all stores now.

Quote

H-E-B has announced that stores that are not in an area with a mask ordinance will require masks for all customers in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The grocery store chain says that while 80% of stores are operating under a mandatory mask ordinance, they are implementing the mandate for all places where local ordinances are not in place.

https://www.newswest9.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/heb-issues-mandate-for-customers-to-wear-masks/513-e5f32118-9f5c-41b5-85d9-17877d5f7580

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justhookit

justhookit 4174

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On 6/30/2020 at 1:28 AM, justhookit said:

So finally got to look at the new test numbers a little more closely. We will see 300 new cases at least once in the next 3 days. If we stick around 210 it means they can’t test enough or can’t process enough.

I’d much rather be seeing 150 one day and then 300 the next then back to 175 then 275, etc.

Welp the follow up here. It only took 2 days. Close yesterday and then today 362. We stopped doing county tests because they ran out so it’s even worse. Will say they really couldn’t do that many so it’s not that big a deal. Pretty sure we have a positive rate approaching 40% now.

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Somnio

Somnio 751

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Posted
8 hours ago, gmr548 said:

What is true is that Austin has a tiny black population relative to cities of comparable size, the black population is shrinking - not just as a percentage, but in raw numbers - and it is very, very racially segregated.

Incorrect on several points sir.  The Black population is not shrinking in total numbers in the city limits, and is growing substantially on a metro wide basis.

Austin is also not a particularly segragated city.  Many of the most segragated cities ironically are some the cities with large Black populations.  

There are also other major American cities with lower or similar Black populations as Austin.  Denver, Los Angeles, Seattle, Phoenix, San Antonio, San Diego, Portland, San Francisco......

https://austin.curbed.com/2016/6/23/12013062/austin-black-residents-number-percentage

https://communityimpact.com/data-reference/2019/08/18/pflugerville-boasts-highest-percentage-black-population-austin-metro/

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/07/20/detroit-chicago-memphis-most-segregated-cities-america-housing-policy/39703787/

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Seriously, where in the fuck are we supposed to get a reliable test in Central Texas that doesn't require a week wait time?  I do not fucking get this at all.  

All I ever fucking hear is how we can get a test anytime with little to no lag time.  My wife sits on a hospital board.  One of my closest friends is the head of Ascension-Seton.  Even with those relationships, nobody can tell me with a straight face how to get a test that isn't a week out with a 50/50 chance of working.  What in the fucking fuck?  

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Pam Cummings

Pam Cummings 9560

Posted
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26 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Seriously, where in the fuck are we supposed to get a reliable test in Central Texas that doesn't require a week wait time?  I do not fucking get this at all.  

All I ever fucking hear is how we can get a test anytime with little to no lag time.  My wife sits on a hospital board.  One of my closest friends is the head of Ascension-Seton.  Even with those relationships, nobody can tell me with a straight face how to get a test that isn't a week out with a 50/50 chance of working.  What in the fucking fuck?  

I know a guy who felt sick, called the doctor, described the symptoms, and was told it was covid. Will not get tested due to expense and the fact that he's already been quarantined for 10 days, so by the time he gets the results he'd be done with it anyway.

 

Wonder how many of those there are out there.

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Somnio

Somnio 751

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

That's a laugh

You are misinformed.  Austin has a very dispersed Black population, which actually contributes to some saying they aren't particularly visible.  The data is all out there to check out.

Travis County has a higher percentage of Black people than the city proper.  Suburbs such as Pflugerville, and even Round Rock and Hutto in Willismson County (Gasp!) have higher percentage than the Austin city limits.  This is the antithesis of segragation.

If virtually all of the Black population in the greater Austin area was truly segragated in one let's say a 50 square mile ring of urban blight surrounding our CBD because all the White people packed up and left the city back in the 60s and 70s that would be segregation.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Posted

Yeah, thanks for posting the link to that map.  Fascinating.  I am glad that the area where I grew up was so ethically diverse (that's rare in Chicago), but didn't realize my part of Austin was so white.  Our little HOA is pretty diverse, but our overall part of town is severely lacking---didn't realize that until now, or didn't want to admit it I guess.  

I wanna see everybody else's facial expression when they see that huge swarth of red over on Lake Austin west of Mopac.  It took me a minute, I'll admit.  I went from "What the hell?  Is that an internment camp?  Oh yeah, graduate housing..."  

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NorthLoop

NorthLoop 14082

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Posted
1 hour ago, Somnio said:

You are misinformed.  Austin has a very dispersed Black population, which actually contributes to some saying they aren't particularly visible.  The data is all out there to check out.

Travis County has a higher percentage of Black people than the city proper.  Suburbs such as Pflugerville, and even Round Rock and Hutto in Willismson County (Gasp!) have higher percentage than the Austin city limits.  This is the antithesis of segragation.

If virtually all of the Black population in the greater Austin area was truly segragated in one let's say a 50 square mile ring of urban blight surrounding our CBD because all the White people packed up and left the city back in the 60s and 70s that would be segregation.

 

1 hour ago, Texas Jeff said:

For those of you discussing segregation, there's a map that shows racial identity in America, along with density, by plotting one dot for every person.  Here's what it looked like for the 2010 census:

https://demographics.virginia.edu/DotMap/index.html

 

lol yeah Austin isn't segregated at all

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crash_davis

crash_davis 23081

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2 hours ago, Lobo said:

Seriously, where in the fuck are we supposed to get a reliable test in Central Texas that doesn't require a week wait time?  I do not fucking get this at all.  

All I ever fucking hear is how we can get a test anytime with little to no lag time.  My wife sits on a hospital board.  One of my closest friends is the head of Ascension-Seton.  Even with those relationships, nobody can tell me with a straight face how to get a test that isn't a week out with a 50/50 chance of working.  What in the fucking fuck?  

A few pages back, kind folks suggest NextCare. Booked an appointment but apparently they are no longer doing a fast test. They texted that it would take about 10 days to get the results. Fuck that. My wife who has very mild symptoms needs to know today, not 10 days from now when she may already be over it or in ICU. Her mother is staying with us because her father just had open heart surgery down the street. They live an hour outside of Austin and we live 5 mins from the hospital. Mom is staying with us to be with her recovering husband. Now her mother is worried that my wife/her daughter may have infected her. If she can't watch him, then he goes to a nursing home. Guess what the fuck is going to happen in a nursing home???

I am so fuckiing ragey right now. My wife has been scared shitless of getting it. She's basically is at home 24/7. Wont even go to the grocery store. However her team a few weeks ago decided that they would go back to the office. Why? Just because the head dipshit wants people in the office. We're thinking she caught it from work.

I said it a few pages back and I'll say it again. We have known about this shit since January. Experts were warning about this shit in Jan and Feb. It's fucking JULY and we as a nation haven't figured out testing. We as a nation can't fucking decide to do the common good and have to make watching out for your fellow man a political issue. 

The fuck is wrong with this country?

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Somnio

Somnio 751

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Just now, NorthLoop said:

 

lol yeah Austin isn't segregated at all

I'll just leave this here, and call it a day.  The assholes that brought this shit up in an inflammatory way, making bullshit claims get a pass, but you want to call me out?  It's pretty ridiculous.

In the 2000s, 115 of the 185 cities and townships in Metro Detroit were more than 95% white.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metro_Detroit

 

The city of Detroit is over 80% Black.  Go take a look at their map.  Or a lot of other cities that experienced White Flight.

I am not saying there is no segragation in Austin, and I am not saying it has a large Black population.  But most if not all cities have segregation, many much worse than Austin.  And there are a lot of other cities with similarly sized Black populations.

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Enchubben

Enchubben 5509

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1 hour ago, Texas Jeff said:

For those of you discussing segregation, there's a map that shows racial identity in America, along with density, by plotting one dot for every person.  Here's what it looked like for the 2010 census:

https://demographics.virginia.edu/DotMap/index.html

 

That looks about as segregated as you can get in a major city.  If you're hispanic you live East of I35. If you're white you live West of I-35.  If you are Asian you live in student/graduate housing or by the Anderson Mill mall.  For the 10 black people that live in Austin you are off Airport Blvd.  For such a progressive city that is pretty alarming.  Houston and Dallas actually look great by comparison. 

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South Austin

South Austin 52105

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Quote

The Austin area broke its own three-day record for the number of new cases reported Saturday through Monday. Austin Mayor Steve Adler is now considering a new stay-at-home order if the surge continues – and the local health authority said wearing masks should be mandatory for the next year.

Link

Without concurrence from the governor, what more can Steve Adler do beyond the City's current stay-at-home order?  Just tightening the restrictions on non-household gatherings?  I don't see that having any teeth.

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Skipper

Skipper 6100

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4 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

A few pages back, kind folks suggest NextCare. Booked an appointment but apparently they are no longer doing a fast test. They texted that it would take about 10 days to get the results.

The fact that it's now so difficult to get a test with a decent turnaround time is case and point at how much we've fucked this up.    We shouldn't have opened up until we had a shitload of tests and lab capacity + at least some contact tracing in place even if it wasn't optimal.  Instead, we opened up with no plan and cases exploded, so we're essentially where we were in March without capacity to track the spread.    If you are symptomatic, I think you just have to assume you have it and get a pulse oximeter to track your blood oxygen levels.  Then go to the ER if it gets low.

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UT_OB1

UT_OB1 2200

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12 minutes ago, Skipper said:

The fact that it's now so difficult to get a test with a decent turnaround time is case and point at how much we've fucked this up.    We shouldn't have opened up until we had a shitload of tests and lab capacity + at least some contact tracing in place even if it wasn't optimal.  Instead, we opened up with no plan and cases exploded, so we're essentially where we were in March without capacity to track the spread.    If you are symptomatic, I think you just have to assume you have it and get a pulse oximeter to track your blood oxygen levels.  Then go to the ER if it gets low.

Had an employee find out they were in close contact with someone who tested positive at about 4 PM here in La Porte.  They had results from the fast test in about 3 hours and went to work.  Clinic says it is 98% reliable.  It is off spencer hwy and i can pm you the phone number if you want it.

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gsoda3

gsoda3 3234

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3 hours ago, Lobo said:

Seriously, where in the fuck are we supposed to get a reliable test in Central Texas that doesn't require a week wait time?  I do not fucking get this at all.  

All I ever fucking hear is how we can get a test anytime with little to no lag time.  My wife sits on a hospital board.  One of my closest friends is the head of Ascension-Seton.  Even with those relationships, nobody can tell me with a straight face how to get a test that isn't a week out with a 50/50 chance of working.  What in the fucking fuck?  

austin regional clinic. i did it on thursday.  from the time i made the phone call to the time i was rolling away from the test site it was < 3 hours.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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Posted
I'll just leave this here, and call it a day.  The assholes that brought this shit up in an inflammatory way, making bullshit claims get a pass, but you want to call me out?  It's pretty ridiculous.

In the 2000s, 115 of the 185 cities and townships in Metro Detroit were more than 95% white.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metro_Detroit

 

The city of Detroit is over 80% Black.  Go take a look at their map.  Or a lot of other cities that experienced White Flight.

I am not saying there is no segragation in Austin, and I am not saying it has a large Black population.  But most if not all cities have segregation, many much worse than Austin.  And there are a lot of other cities with similarly sized Black populations.

Most of us making fun of it live here and love our city. Settle down Beavis.

 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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12 hours ago, NorthLoop said:

FWIW, while waiting for my curbside order at HEB in NB today I saw 100% mask usage. Granted it's mandated here but I was still pleasantly surprised. 

Lots of people getting out of their cars and telling the loaders where to put the groceries like they've never heard of a trunk? 

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DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt

DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301

Posted
Posted

looks like Houston is about tapped out.

Quote

Houston hospitals are now feeling the impact of the recent surge in COVID-19 patients.  According to Houston Chronicle's data team, Tuesday marked the highest single-day increase in COVID-19 cases for the state to date with more than 7,000 new cases reported.

Harris Health Systems, the public health system which operates Ben Taub and LBJ hospitals is now transferring COVID-19 patients to other healthcare facilities in outlying areas like Kingwood and the Woodlands.  According to Harris Health Systems officials, 49 percent of the patients in Ben Taub's ICU are COVID-19 positive. Combined ICUs at Ben Taub and LBJ Hospitals are now at 85 percent capacity.

"We are now transferring out COVID-19 patients on a daily basis, because we don't have the internal capacity to manage them," said Charlie McMurray-Horton, the associated administrator of Clinical Integration and Transformation of Harris Health.

I'm a bit surprised they're choosing to transfer patients to other systems as opposed to deploying the Tanned, Ready, & Rested system for resource deployment. Seems like a no-brainer to me.

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Enchubben

Enchubben 5509

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Posted (edited)

I cant remember where I initially posted this but whatever - I came back negative on the antibody test.  I thought i may have had a very early case from an extended hospital stay late November early December but I guess not.  That being said, I was able to sign up for the test in 5 minutes.  The first open slot was 4 days later; the appointment took 5 minutes with no inside waiting, and I got the results back next business day.  

Edited to add it was $10, well worth the investment to have a reasonably attractive nurse touch my arm. 

Edited by Enchubben
cost
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Skipper

Skipper 6100

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17 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

Had an employee find out they were in close contact with someone who tested positive at about 4 PM here in La Porte.  They had results from the fast test in about 3 hours and went to work.  Clinic says it is 98% reliable.  It is off spencer hwy and i can pm you the phone number if you want it.

Thanks but my post was just a macro observation and really for the metro areas.   I know in Dallas they are saying 8-10 days for results at the free drive through testing site and that is after waiting hours to get a test.   To the extent people are aware of those parameters how many are symptomatic and saying "fuck it"?  I would wager a lot.   Not to mention the people that get tested, feel better a couple of days later, and return to the world assuming it was just a cold while potentially still spreading the disease then find out a week later they were positive.  I'm just a little surprised how shitty the testing infrastructure is considering we're now in July but I shouldn't be.   I guess there is still some value in the data 10 days later (positivity rate, etc.) but there is almost zero value to the individual.  After 10 days, the vast majority will either be fully recovered or in the hospital.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23390

Posted
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:
47 minutes ago, Anastasis said:
Austin is literally hosting a Vanilla Ice 4th of July concert.  

And some dipshits in Austin just had a party with 300 teenagers. Sounds like it was a mass transmission event and they are recommending everyone who attended get tested.

Beer pong party.  

The best part is hearing my wife fume about how many of the parents are defending the thing on social media.

 

 

Edited by Anastasis
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gmr548

gmr548 16482

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Somnio said:

Incorrect on several points sir.  The Black population is not shrinking in total numbers in the city limits, and is growing substantially on a metro wide basis.

Austin is also not a particularly segragated city.  Many of the most segragated cities ironically are some the cities with large Black populations.  

There are also other major American cities with lower or similar Black populations as Austin.  Denver, Los Angeles, Seattle, Phoenix, San Antonio, San Diego, Portland, San Francisco......

https://austin.curbed.com/2016/6/23/12013062/austin-black-residents-number-percentage

https://communityimpact.com/data-reference/2019/08/18/pflugerville-boasts-highest-percentage-black-population-austin-metro/

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/07/20/detroit-chicago-memphis-most-segregated-cities-america-housing-policy/39703787/

1.) Just because a city like, say, Detroit is more segregated does not mean Austin isn't. I was actually going to link to the dot density map already provided. You can see the stark contrast between the white west side and hispanic east side from a national level. In general it gets more integrated the further away from the center of the city you get, which is counter-intuitively true in general these days. Because of gentrification and the availability of cheaper housing, outskirts of cities and suburbs are becoming more diverse than the urban core all over the country.

Based on an analysis by 538, you can see that segregation in Austin is right in line with the national trend line: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-most-diverse-cities-are-often-the-most-segregated/ - and yes, cities with higher black populations are often more segregated, because of the legacy of the policies that got them there in the first place. Again, that doesn't mean Austin isn't segregated. You can see that despite it being in the middle in a relative sense, its neighborhood diversity trails its population diversity by quite a bit. So you can say it's not segregated relative to some other American cities, which is grading on a hell of a curve given how pervasive segregation still is in this country. As we were having an Austin-centric discussion surrounding the specific protests that happened here, I was speaking in terms about the city only.

2.) I didn't say anything about metrowide. I am well aware of black migration to Pflugerville, Manor, etc. That's where many of the black households priced out of town have gone. That's good if the black population has stopped declining in absolute terms. It still is as a percentage, we'll see how much so with the census next year. The most recent ACS data has the black population at 7.8 percent, below the 2010 census.

3.) Austin does not have a smaller black population than Los Angeles. LA's black population has held steady at ~9 percent since 2010, which is both above Austin and trending differently. The rest I'm not going to look up but I will grant you because you used mostly western cities, and there are not very many black people once you get to the Rockies. Outside of San Francisco they're also not particularly comparable to Austin in terms of size - LA, Phoenix, and San Diego are all at least 40 percent larger than Austin. Austin is much larger than Seattle, Denver, or Portland. And it's located in Texas, which unlike Colorado, Washington, or Oregon, actually has a black population to speak of. Fort Worth, located in Texas and one of the closest cities to Austin in size has a black population 2.5 times larger (proportionally speaking) than Austin. Go down the list - Jacksonville, Fort Worth, Columbus, Charlotte, Indianapolis - the five next largest cities east of the Rockies (which is where most black people in this country live), all within about 100k of Austin in terms of population, all with way higher black populations, like 2x, 3x, more. Yes, there's San Jose, which has about four black people, but again, western city. Overall, of cities within 100k of Austin in terms of population, two have smaller black populations, and five have larger. Dallas, Houston, and SA are the most natural comps among significantly larger cities given that they're in TX. The former two have far larger black populations. San Antonio's is a little smaller, and that's having been a historically hispanic community. San Antonio's black population has also been stable at about 7 percent since 1990 despite growing like absolute wildfire. So it's not much smaller at this point and Austin is trending down into its neighborhood. So Austin is firmly on the low end of large Texas cities and comparably sized national cities in terms of black population.

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crash_davis

crash_davis 23081

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Posted

Austin area.

The only place that I know that has rapid testing is Texas MedClinic. There are tons in San Antonio and 3 in the Austin area. You are supposed to book an appointment online but their system is swamped. The websites says that if you have symptoms they should be able to accommodate walk ins. She tried to walk in at the north Austin clinic and was turned away. She drove to the south Austin clinic and they were able to schedule her for 4pm test appointment. She got there @ 9:30am to book 4pm appt. Supposedly get results in 20 mins.

Incredible that this seems to be the only place in Austin that I know of which has this fast test service. This is the 10th largest metro area in the country. Absolutely Incredible.

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Chewbacca

Chewbacca 7729

Posted
Posted
Beer pong party.  
The best part is hearing my wife fume about how many of the parents are defending the thing on social media.
 
 
That makes me mad and I'm 1000 miles away. I've never seen so many people revel in being selfish assholes. It's not a good look.
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Anastasis

Anastasis 23390

Posted
Posted (edited)

hookit is going to pissed when he comes back to check on this thread.

26 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

looks like Houston is about tapped out.

Annotation-2020-06-29-10013332.png

 

Looks like the graph didn't show up, but here is link to Harris county ICU capacity.  They are about to roll into surge capacity.

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYjU5MzU4NjAtZWJjMC00MTllLTkwYjYtMzE4ODY1YjAyMGU2IiwidCI6ImI3MjgwODdjLTgwZTgtNGQzMS04YjZmLTdlMGUzYmUxMGUwOCIsImMiOjN9

 

Edited by Anastasis
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gmr548

gmr548 16482

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Skipper said:

WTF.  Can we take the racial breakdown of Austin and/or other cities to a different thread?  

I'm done. Sorry for threadjacking. When someone pretty clearly cherrypicking data wants to whine about you being inflammatory and making bullshit claims it is kind of hard not to respond.

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gmr548

gmr548 16482

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

to wit, a few short weeks ago there was a large contingent of people on this thread that felt like the proper course of action was to a) let the overwhelming majority of society get back to their lives as usual and b) isolate the elderly and infirmed.

 

Math is hard.

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GreenspointTexas

GreenspointTexas 9559

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

hookit is going to pissed when he comes back to check on this thread.

Annotation-2020-06-29-10013332.png

 

Looks like the graph didn't show up, but here is link to Harris county ICU capacity.  They are about to roll into surge capacity.

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYjU5MzU4NjAtZWJjMC00MTllLTkwYjYtMzE4ODY1YjAyMGU2IiwidCI6ImI3MjgwODdjLTgwZTgtNGQzMS04YjZmLTdlMGUzYmUxMGUwOCIsImMiOjN9

 

They already are. Isnt that data a day old?

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