COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[Anastasis 23393]

1 minute ago, gsoda3 said:

a long time.  i got them posted last night at 9:45pm.  so 6 days.

This is infuriating. 

 

[JBJ 3648]

Right now, it seems about 50%-60% of this surge is tied to protests.  That is the portion of transmission I am seeing already subside as of yesterday's numbers.

The other 40%-50% I attribute to various lack of social distancing / desire for normalcy.  It is hard to tie that directly to Memorial Day or Phase 2 because of the timing of these events vs the surge itself, but I'm sure all 3 (reopening, holiday, protests) play a role in the general behavior of people.

As stated before there was an increase associated with Phase 2, but it was a more subtle steady increase (R0~1.3) - not the surge we saw/are seeing (R0~2.2).

[utee94 15745]

1 hour ago, Skipper said:

The fact that it's now so difficult to get a test with a decent turnaround time is case and point at how much we've fucked this up.    We shouldn't have opened up until we had a shitload of tests and lab capacity + at least some contact tracing in place even if it wasn't optimal.  Instead, we opened up with no plan and cases exploded, so we're essentially where we were in March without capacity to track the spread.    If you are symptomatic, I think you just have to assume you have it and get a pulse oximeter to track your blood oxygen levels.  Then go to the ER if it gets low.

Agree for the most part, quantity of tests and lab capacity shouldn't be a limiting factor at all at this point, and apparently they are.

But why do people keep saying we have no contact tracing in place?  We do.  They traced me after I came into contact with a positive-case.  I went and got tested the next day for both active infection and antibodies.  (I was negative for both)

It's quite likely not "optimal" but you specifically stated that you felt we should have "at least some even if it's not optimal." We do.

 

 

[Updawg 2261]

Fwiw. Wife had a test last Friday and go the results on Sunday. They initially told her it would be 5-10 business days

[NorthLoop 14083]

11 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Right now, it seems about 50%-60% of this surge is tied to protests.  That is the portion of transmission I am seeing already subside as of yesterday's numbers.

 

There are counties that are spiking hard that had little or no protests

[utee94 15745]

3 minutes ago, Updawg said:

Fwiw. Wife had a test last Friday and go the results on Sunday. They initially told her it would be 5-10 business days

Yup mine came back faster than promised/expected as well.  I'm assuming they are stating the worst-case scenario to set expectations.

[crash_davis 23083]

I know 3 people last week who separately got tested in Austin. 2 of the 3 received results in 6 days. The 3rd received results in 7. They were all quoted 5 days. I don't know where they all went.

[Guest Lobo]

10 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

There are counties that are spiking hard that had little or no protests

Yeah, how is this protests caused the spike idiocy still prevailing?  We are way past the 10-15 day window from the last batch of big protests here in Texas. 
look at hays county

look at the rio grande valley

the they are both in the top 10 worst counties in the nation for percentage spikes.  And some resident moron will have to remind me about those massive Weslaco and Dripping Springs BLM protests   

 

[Hate 20103]

So the Vanilla Ice concert this weekend shouldn’t be a big deal as long as everyone wears a mask (other than it’s Vanilla Ice)? And we should be able to go to other concerts and gatherings of multiple thousands of people in close proximity as long as we wear a mask, right?

[dcar00 14031]

doc in the box doing testing near my office(NW hills)had about 20 cars in line about 10 days ago every morning. after day 5 dropped to about 10. last 2 days about 5.  

[Brisketexan 104561]

19 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

There are counties that are spiking hard that had little or no protests

Yeah....this is what I don't get when it comes to the "the protests are the big driver here" crowd.  We have controls: several cities that were NOT as re-opened as the current hot spots, but DID have large protests.  And those places are not seeing a material surge.  So, same event (large protests), wildly different outcomes in terms of case numbers.  That's a pretty strong piece of evidence that the protests haven't been a large driver of transmission.  Again, I'm sure there was SOME, but it seems apparent that neither the re-open protests or the BLM protests caused a lot of transmission.  What THAT tells us is that gatherings outdoors are probably not high-risk activities.  There's a takeaway here -- it's just that a lot of folks can't accept that it doesn't serve any particular political agenda, so they're looking right past it.

[Born to Run 6565]

So the Vanilla Ice concert this weekend shouldn’t be a big deal as long as everyone wears a mask (other than it’s Vanilla Ice)? And we should be able to go to other concerts and gatherings of multiple thousands of people in close proximity as long as we wear a mask, right?

No.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

1 minute ago, Hate said:

So the Vanilla Ice concert this weekend shouldn’t be a big deal as long as everyone wears a mask (other than it’s Vanilla Ice)? And we should be able to go to other concerts and gatherings of multiple thousands of people in close proximity as long as we wear a mask, right?

i suppose if you wanted to equate a shitty concert with a fight for basic human rights  you could do that.

but i'd like to think there would be a little more calculus involved when deciding what risks we're willing to accept as a society.

side note, you sure seem to be asking lots of questions. just asking questions?

[Brisketexan 104561]

5 minutes ago, Hate said:

So the Vanilla Ice concert this weekend shouldn’t be a big deal as long as everyone wears a mask (other than it’s Vanilla Ice)? And we should be able to go to other concerts and gathering of multiple thousands of people in close proximity as long as we wear as mask, right?

That may be the case.  And let's be clear, it's ALWAYS safe to attend a Vanilla Ice concert.  Lose the zero, get with the hero.

Close proximity and yelling makes those events higher risk than otherwise, but with masks, that's likely mitigated.  The question is how low the risk is, and whether the organizer (say, NCAA football) is willing to accept imposing that risk.  On the other hand, long-term close-proximity events without masks, even if outside, can still be higher risk (buncha kids partying out by the lake all day, yelling in each other's faces etc., no masks).

[Anastasis 23393]

39 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Right now, it seems about 50%-60% of this surge is tied to protests.  That is the portion of transmission I am seeing already subside as of yesterday's numbers.

The other 40%-50% I attribute to various lack of social distancing / desire for normalcy.  It is hard to tie that directly to Memorial Day or Phase 2 because of the timing of these events vs the surge itself, but I'm sure all 3 (reopening, holiday, protests) play a role in the general behavior of people.

As stated before there was an increase associated with Phase 2, but it was a more subtle steady increase (R0~1.3) - not the surge we saw/are seeing (R0~2.2).

Can you break down the methodology that you use to arrive at these conclusions a bit further?

[drt 637]

Family friends own an auto shop in San Antonio.  One employee called in sick with covid symptoms last week, they shut down and had everyone get tested.  All the shop guys working on the vehicles were negative.  Every single office employee tested positive.  Indoors in close proximity seems to be the worst.  I don't know if they had masks on in the office or not.

[BradInATX 9208]

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

That may be the case.  And let's be clear, it's ALWAYS safe to attend a Vanilla Ice concert.  Lose the zero, get with the hero.

Close proximity and yelling makes those events higher risk than otherwise, but with masks, that's likely mitigated.  The question is how low the risk is, and whether the organizer (say, NCAA football) is willing to accept imposing that risk.  On the other hand, long-term close-proximity events without masks, even if outside, can still be higher risk (buncha kids partying out by the lake all day, yelling in each other's faces etc., no masks).

You'd have a hard time convincing me that the kids at that party got the Rona from the open air and not from the nasty ass rinse cups from beer pong.

Edited July 2, 2020 by BradInATX

[Guest Lobo]

I'm typing this from our office in Lakeway.  The same people out here that decided that 300 teenagers gathering for pong was a good idea are the same people that think a Vanilla Ice concert is a good idea.  A couple hundred boats watching Vanilla Ice would not have been a big deal 6 weeks ago, but right now---it's fucking insane.  There's a reason why even outdoor music festivals are being cancelled one after another.  Small gatherings at a social distance outside are fine.  Anything else is fucking stupid. 

Sorry, I know it's not polite to call otherwise reasonable Texans stupid, but it's fucking stupid.  It's just fucking physics people.  Make it political, make it a conspiracy theory, make it whatever the fuck you want.  Air particles move differently outdoors than they do indoors.  I barely made a C in physics at UT, but even I understand this.  

This fucking "protests caused the spike."  So because of BLM demonstrations, now you believe the virus is real and dangerous?  Which is it?  Because before George Floyd, the worst of Covid-19 was behind us, if it was even just the flu to begin with?  

[dcar00 14031]

1 minute ago, drt said:

Family friends own an auto shop in San Antonio.  One employee called in sick with covid symptoms last week, they shut down and had everyone get tested.  All the shop guys working on the vehicles were negative.  Every single office employee tested positive.  Indoors in close proximity seems to be the worst.  I don't know if they had masks on in the office or not.

but it lives on surfaces like tools, keyboards, etc for 9 days!  seriously, though, interesting info.  maybe we should have the old folks camp outside for a while.

[BabaYaga 15209]

32 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

There are counties that are spiking hard that had little or no protests

Do you think that people only protested in their local communities or that they traveled from all over the state to participate in something that has been simmering just below the surface for decades?

[utee94 15745]

2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

You'd have a hard time convincing me that the kids at that party got the Rona from the open air and not from the nasty ass rinse cups from beer pong.

Agree.  Obviously there's no way to differentiate in a case like this, but outdoor transmission by itself just doesn't seem to be much of a thing. 

[Chet Steadman 940]

1 hour ago, crash_davis said:

This is the 10th largest metro area in the country. Absolutely Incredible.

Well, we're actually only the 30th largest metro in the country so your baseline may need to be reestablished a bit. 

FWIW, I got tested a week ago today at TM North and was in and out in less than 2.5hrs.  Received the results back in 16 minutes (negative).

[Brisketexan 104561]

6 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Do you think that people only protested in their local communities or that they traveled from all over the state to participate in something that has been simmering just below the surface for decades?

Whistling right pas the graveyard of the control group of multiple cities that had large protests in areas that were NOT significantly reopened, and are not seeing major spikes in cases.

When you look at the controls, it's pretty strong evidence that protests, on their own, were not a big driver of cases (which is an non-political issue: it tells us that outdoor transmission is not a high risk).

[dcbc 14404]

1 hour ago, Enchubben said:

I cant remember where I initially posted this but whatever - I came back negative on the antibody test.  I thought i may have had a very early case from an extended hospital stay late November early December but I guess not.  That being said, I was able to sign up for the test in 5 minutes.  The first open slot was 4 days later; the appointment took 5 minutes with no inside waiting, and I got the results back next business day.  

Edited to add it was $10, well worth the investment to have a reasonably attractive nurse touch my arm. 

Same, except for the nurse.  Results in less than twenty-four hours.  Negative, but glad to have the information.

[Guest Lobo]

6 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Do you think that people only protested in their local communities or that they traveled from all over the state to participate in something that has been simmering just below the surface for decades?

Ah yes, all those white residents from a predominantly one side of the ideological spectrum in Amarillo, Corpus Christi, Hays County, Lubbock, Denton, Waco, and Galveston ALL PLACES WITH MASSIVE PER CAPITA SPIKES, suddenly got in their cars to take up for the Black Lives Matter movement in other, larger, bluer cities.  Yes, yes that must explain this spike we're seeing.  They all road tripped it to Houston and Dallas and Austin to show their sudden support and then took the virus home to the above listed places.  Great detective work, Lou  

[fuggled 576]

44 minutes ago, utee94 said:

But why do people keep saying we have no contact tracing in place?  We do.  They traced me after I came into contact with a positive-case.  I went and got tested the next day for both active infection and antibodies.  (I was negative for both)

Just curious, how did the tracing work?  Did you get a call from a hospital?  From the county?  And was it because a confirmed patient had provided your name and info?  Or was it some less direct method of identifying you.  e.g. "You shopped at this store where a confirmed case was identified."

[Hate 20103]

Whistling right pas the graveyard of the control group of multiple cities that had large protests in areas that were NOT significantly reopened, and are not seeing major spikes in cases.
When you look at the controls, it's pretty strong evidence that protests, on their own, were not a big driver of cases (which is an non-political issue: it tells us that outdoor transmission is not a high risk).

Exactly. So we should stop calling people that participate in large outdoor activities idiots as long as they are ok with the risks. So beaches should be open. Parks should be open. Wear a mask and social distance indoors and in very crowded outdoor spaces.

[Message Board User 12389]

1 minute ago, dcbc said:

Same, except for the nurse.  Results in less than twenty-four hours.  Negative, but glad to have the information.

See I'm with @crash_davis on this - makes me ragey that some people seem to have a super-secret in where they can get almost instant results while rubes like me are still waiting on testing results from Monday.  In the meantime, I can't go to work and am stuck quarantining (I have no symptoms, but someone at work tested positive, but I still need to stay home until I get the results).

Makes me wish I didn't even bother with a test...

[BabaYaga 15209]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Whistling right pas the graveyard of the control group of multiple cities that had large protests in areas that were NOT significantly reopened, and are not seeing major spikes in cases.

When you look at the controls, it's pretty strong evidence that protests, on their own, were not a big driver of cases (which is an non-political issue: it tells us that outdoor transmission is not a high risk).

Then explain California, which has been on permanent lockdown?  

To suggest that people going to Home Depot minus a mask or having dinner at Chilis is solely causing the spike, but this is a non-factor is absurd:

[dcbc 14404]

1 hour ago, Message Board User said:

See I'm with @crash_davis on this - makes me ragey that some people seem to have a super-secret in where they can get almost instant results while rubes like me are still waiting on testing results from Monday.  In the meantime, I can't go to work and am stuck quarantining (I have no symptoms, but someone at work tested positive, but I still need to stay home until I get the results).

Makes me wish I didn't even bother with a test...

This is the antibody test.  Book appointment through LabCorp.  Pay $10.  Pick the no insurance option.  As for super-secret, I posted about it in one of these threads.  So I'm not a good secret keeper in that regard.

For active infection testing, my understanding from others who have tried is that it's difficult to get tested, especially without symptoms.

Edited July 2, 2020 by dcbc

[TexasGolf 4856]

LOS ANGELES, California — Mayor Eric Garcetti told a press briefing on Wednesday afternoon that the recent Black Lives Matter protests in the Los Angeles area were, in fact, partly responsible for a recent spike in coronavirus cases.

“Some of the spread did come from our protests,” Garcetti admitted

 

https://www.breitbart.com/health/2020/07/01/eric-garcetti-on-coronavirus-some-of-the-spread-did-come-from-our-black-lives-matter-protests/

[pearlandhorn 3269]

18 hours ago, pearlandhorn said:

Update: currently running a low grade fever around 100 degrees and feel like I’ve been hit by a fucking truck. Nausea comes and goes, chills, major splitting headache, muscle pains, the whole 9 yards.

Going to try and get tested in the morning in Freeport at a clinic. Getting tested is such a shitshow.

Ended up getting tested in Lake Jackson this morning at a private clinic because the state websites for the brazoria county testing is just fucked.  Called all the clinics they put out as testing facilities and none of them have or had tests within the last week.

Will hear this weekend if I'm positive or not.

[Brisketexan 104561]

1 minute ago, Hate said:

Exactly. So we should stop calling people that participate in large outdoor activities idiots as long as they are ok with the risks. So beaches should be open. Parks should be open. Wear a mask and social distance indoors and in very crowded outdoor spaces.

Yes and no.  "Beaches should be open" - actually, the reason that many beach towns have closed beaches is not because of people on beaches, but because beaches are a DRAW for large crowds, especially on a holiday weekend.  The risk isn't people sitting in the sun on Saturday afternoon.  The risk is all of those people rinsing the sand off and partying at Louie's Backyard, or a condo, on Saturday night.

Parks should be open -- also yes and no.  It depends on what you're doing in the park.  Partiers packing themselves in together, doing jello shots and shit, is higher risk than some dudes grilling and kicking the soccer ball around.  

The two things you described are not one-size-fits-all situations, that's the problem.  Being on the beach is not a high risk.  Partying after is.  Going to a park is not a risk.  A close-packed group partying at the park is.

So, your conclusion is mostly right.  Wear a mask and social distance indoors.  And outdoors, social distance, and if in a large group at all, wear a mask.  The problem is that certain situations create a recipe for multiple parts of that plan being tossed aside.   The partiers at the condo at the beach on Saturday night are going to be close together, and won't be wearing masks, because they'll be partying and drinking their asses off.

[Hate 20103]

Are you feeling any better?

 

Edit: intended for pearlandhorn

[crash_davis 23083]

8 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

See I'm with @crash_davis on this - makes me ragey that some people seem to have a super-secret in where they can get almost instant results while rubes like me are still waiting on testing results from Monday.  In the meantime, I can't go to work and am stuck quarantining (I have no symptoms, but someone at work tested positive, but I still need to stay home until I get the results).

Makes me wish I didn't even bother with a test...

I called my doc, she called her doc. Both said that all the labs are hella backed up. My office said that they are getting results back in 7 days but that it's prob gotten longer. Hers said 6-8 days. The NextCare clinic this morning told us 10 days. They were doing fast tests last week. The lady at my doc office recommended Texas MedClinic. That was the only fast test that she knew of in Austin. Her doc didn't have a suggestion other than to get tested and wait 6-8 days.

TM is swamped. Their website is worthless, not their fault as I'm sure everyone needing to know immediately is pounding their website. Had to go in person to schedule the appt.

It's a cluster fuck.

Edited July 2, 2020 by crash_davis

[Brisketexan 104561]

8 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

To suggest that people going to Home Depot minus a mask or having dinner at Chilis is solely causing the spike, but this is a non-factor is absurd:

Logical fallacy.  Please cite the post where I said that the protests were a "non-factor."  I can wait.....

.......

Exactly.  Of course ANY instance of human contact created some increased risk of transmission.  The issue is whether these are a significant driver -- that is, are they responsible for the SPIKE?  And the evidence, when you look at controls, is that they are not a large driver.  YES, SOME CASES SURELY CAME FROM PROTESTS.  BUT PROTESTS DON'T ACCOUNT FOR THE SPIKE, OR EVEN A MAJORITY OF IT.

And also, false dichotomy -- the spread was ALSO not at Home Depot without a mask or at Chili's for dinner.  It was almost certainly closely-packed indoor gatherings and outdoor parties where people were partying together closely without masks.  So, think bars, and the pong party here in Lakeway.  Those look to be our high-transmission type of events, along with going back to work in close proximity (see the Austin case spike among employees of contractors).

Shit, understand what your position of "IT WAS THE PROTESTS!" would mean: all outdoor gatherings where there is any meaningful crowd are a death trap.  So, we have to close all beaches, pools, parks, etc., indefinitely.  Do you think that is an empirically supported conclusion?  Come on.

Edited July 2, 2020 by Brisketexan

[BabaYaga 15209]

14 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Ah yes, all those white residents from a predominantly one side of the ideological spectrum in Amarillo, Corpus Christi, Hays County, Lubbock, Denton, Waco, and Galveston ALL PLACES WITH MASSIVE PER CAPITA SPIKES, suddenly got in their cars to take up for the Black Lives Matter movement in other, larger, bluer cities.  Yes, yes that must explain this spike we're seeing.  They all road tripped it to Houston and Dallas and Austin to show their sudden support and then took the virus home to the above listed places.  Great detective work, Lou  

So areas, to use your vernacular, that are predominantly "white".....wouldn't bother to engage in a "black" lives matter protest?  Despite latent admissions from all over the country that yes, these protests are in fact contributing to spikes all over the country.  But not in lilly-white Texas?  

[BabaYaga 15209]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Logical fallacy.  Please cite the post where I said that the protests were a "non-factor."  I can wait.....

.......

Exactly.  Of course ANY instance of human contact created some increased risk of transmission.  The issue is whether these are a significant driver -- that is, are they responsible for the SPIKE?  And the evidence, when you look at controls, is that they are not a large driver.  YES, SOME CASES SURELY CAME FROM PROTESTS.  BUT PROTESTS DON'T ACCOUNT FOR THE SPIKE, OR EVEN A MAJORITY OF IT.

And also, false dichotomy -- the spread was ALSO not at Home Depot without a mask or at Chili's for dinner.  It was almost certainly closely-packed indoor gatherings and outdoor parties where people were partying together closely without masks.  So, think bars, and the pong party here in Lakeway.  Those look to be our high-transmission type of events, along with going back to work in close proximity (see the Austin case spike among employees of contractors).

Shit, understand what your position of "IT WAS THE PROTESTS!" would mean: all outdoor gatherings where there is any meaningful crowd are a death trap.  So, we have to close all beaches, pools, parks, etc., indefinitely.  Do you think that is an empirically supported conclusion?  Come on.

Then explain CA, which never opened, yet saw a SPIKE in cases.  

I can wait....

[Guest Lobo]

Brisket---------Wait, you're in Lakeway?  Me too.  I could use a hug.   

 

 

Yes, Los Angeles County admits that part of their surge is because of protests.  But there are literally over a HUNDRED counties in Texas that are seeing a surge that I fucking guarantee (NO POLITICS) had nothing going on in the way of BLM protest.  Shit, if anything they were the people driving to other counties to counter-protest the BLM demonstrations.  

Certain spikes in certain places were caused by certain variables.  Obviously, the surges you see at nursing homes aren't caused by the elderly attending live music events.  Likewise the spikes in Amarillo aren't because everybody in the Panhandle got woke and set off on George Floyd demonstrations.  Los Angeles has its own shit, as does Florida, as does selfish Texas.  

Public Health official in Texas:  "Runoff problem with the water supply, boil your water for the next 48 hours."

Texans: "Yeah, okay.  Better get to HEB and get some big Ozarkas just in case." 

Public Health official in Texas:  "Mosquitos real bad this year, get rid of any standing water on your property and check your screens."

Texans:  "Yeah okay.  Makes sense."

Public Health official in Texas:  "Covid surging again.  Be a good idea to stay home, some non-essential businesses should just close temporarily.  If you have to go out, wear a mask and avoid large gatherings, even church."  

Texans:  "Fuck you!  I'm gonna kill your family!  Hoax!  I need to get to a water park!"  

^  The above has actually happened, in our state, in our watch, word for word.  Public Health officials are resigning in record numbers because of the threats to them and their families.  No politics, but we should be obscenely embarrassed for some of our leaders right now.  

[Brisketexan 104561]

2 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Then explain CA, which never opened, yet saw a SPIKE in cases.  

I can wait....

Well, you don't have to wait long for the facts to reveal that your premise is 100% false -- California sure as fucking shit had re-opened significantly:

https://www.foxnews.com/us/coronavirus-california-newsom-bars-close-restaurants-indoor-dining-los-angeles-halted

Quote

California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced a new round of lockdown measures Wednesday, ordering 19 counties to close all indoor operations for several business sectors, including restaurants, as the state grapples with a resurgence of coronavirus cases.

In addition to bars being forced to shut down temporarily, restaurants, wineries, movie theaters, family entertainment venues, zoos, museums and cardrooms must halt operations in selected communities, Newsom said Wednesday.

.........

The uptick has prompted public-health officials to reimpose safety protocols ahead of the busy July 4 weekend.

Beaches in Los Angeles County, along with piers and bicycle paths, will close beginning Friday through Monday in an effort to prevent a repeat of Memorial Day weekend when large crowds gathered in close proximity and largely ignored safety measures.

All parking facilities at state beaches in Southern California and the Bay Area will also be closed for the upcoming weekend. The closures reverse the reopening process that began weeks ago after months of unprecedented lockdowns.

So, congratulations - you've moved on from stating logical fallacies to stating flat-out falsehoods.  What else do you have in the hopper for us?  

[Guest Lobo]

5 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

So areas, to use your vernacular, that are predominantly "white".....wouldn't bother to engage in a "black" lives matter protest?  Despite latent admissions from all over the country that yes, these protests are in fact contributing to spikes all over the country.  But not in lilly-white Texas?  

No, I'm saying those cities/counties I listed didn't have any fucking protests.  So why the spikes in those places all of a sudden?  We are seeing massive double-digit surges in a hundred Texas counties that never had any protest resembling anything more than two guys in front of the county sheriff's office with a hacky-sack and bongos.  Why in the world do you think that is?  Yes, some places with protests have a decent size chunk of their surge connected to protests.  So how the fuck do places that had negligible-to-none in terms of protest activity have these double and triple digit spikes?  Just tell us why and we'll move on.  

[BabaYaga 15209]

2 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Yes, Los Angeles County admits that part of their surge is because of protests.  But there are literally over a HUNDRED counties in Texas that are seeing a surge that I fucking guarantee (NO POLITICS) had nothing going on in the way of BLM protest.  Shit, if anything they were the people driving to other counties to counter-protest the BLM demonstrations.  

Obviously it's nuanced, and I'm jerking your chain a little - but if we are to fall back on everyone's earlier favorite : "do you even exponential growth, bro....", then yes, it's going to account for much of it.  My folks used to live in Odessa for a decade and a half.  They are in WA state now and I see on their FB feeds friends of their's in support who made the drive to Austin to join the protests.  As for anti-protests....those are still protests.  Which is kind of the point.  

[Huckleberry 32694]

6 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Then explain CA, which never opened, yet saw a SPIKE in cases.  

I can wait....

Well do I have to pretend your lie is true?

California re-opened plenty. Three weeks ago retail, restaurants, bars, etc. were all allowed to be open again with modifications.

[BrazilHorn 6576]

1 minute ago, Lobo said:

No, I'm saying those cities/counties I listed didn't have any fucking protests.  So why the spikes in those places all of a sudden?  We are seeing massive double-digit surges in a hundred Texas counties that never had any protest resembling anything more than two guys in front of the county sheriff's office with a hacky-sack and bongos.  Why in the world do you think that is?  Yes, some places with protests have a decent size chunk of their surge connected to protests.  So how the fuck do places that had negligible-to-none in terms of protest activity have these double and triple digit spikes?  Just tell us why and we'll move on.  

What I can say in driving through West Texas recently is that NO ONE was wearing a mask. (minus the workers and bulk of them had masks on chins with noses sticking out)

It is like towns like Lubbock. Amarillo, Snyder, Dalhart etc just think that Covid is made up

[Guest Lobo]

8 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Obviously it's nuanced, and I'm jerking your chain a little - but if we are to fall back on everyone's earlier favorite : "do you even exponential growth, bro....", then yes, it's going to account for much of it.  My folks used to live in Odessa for a decade and a half.  They are in WA state now and I see on their FB feeds friends of their's in support who made the drive to Austin to join the protests.  As for anti-protests....those are still protests.  Which is kind of the point.  

So wait, we gotta break out protest influence on Covid spikes?  And then break out the counter-protestors that showed up to taunt the protests (we all saw those disturbing videos)?  Then we gotta break out the people who didn't really protest with BLM but showed up to protect the young, unarmed people from the old, salty, and armed people?  Then we gotta take into account the police officers that endured a spike in Covid-19 'cause they had to be out there working these protests?  And then the families of all the above?  Yeah now, I'm seeing why contact tracing is a pain in the ass.  You seem normal but your parents need to get smarter friends...who the fuck drives from Washington State to Austin during a pandemic to protest something they could just as easily do in Seattle?  For fuck's sake, Minneapolis where Floyd actually died is closer than Austin.  Some people just wanna see Oklahoma before they die, I guess.  

I actually think another problem besides Southerners (including Texas) whom are usually very considerate of their manners and their neighbors, not wearing masks or social distancing or avoiding indoor gatherings like church and bars and places of business...is the Heat.  We all had our outdoor time from February through mid June.  Now we head inside to get under the HVAC down here.  Where we all start spraying covid on each other via airborne transmission.  

Texan standing at patio door, enjoying A/C with cold beer, "Yep, gonna be a hot one today.  But that heat's gonna burn up the Chinese Virus at least.  Alright kids, get in the car...they don't have a patio, but they got A/C and cold beer...we're dining out at Chili's tonight!"  

Edited July 2, 2020 by Lobo

[BabaYaga 15209]

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Well, you don't have to wait long for the facts to reveal that your premise is 100% false -- California sure as fucking shit had re-opened significantly:

https://www.foxnews.com/us/coronavirus-california-newsom-bars-close-restaurants-indoor-dining-los-angeles-halted

So, congratulations - you've moved on from stating logical fallacies to stating flat-out falsehoods.  What else do you have in the hopper for us?  

LOL, "significantly"..... were open @ like 25+%.  They were barely entering Phase II, which was only after vetting that each and every one allowed to open accounted for testing, contact tracing, distancing, etc.  

Which we were at months ago, yet saw no spikes or surges.  Yet across the state we saw a significant and widespread occurrence of people....yet it's shrugged off as having a minimal impact.  Sure, this was a minimal impact.  Got it....

[DaysOff 7851]

Whole family got tested this morning at Comal County health department. In and out in 20 minutes in the drive through. Wife and I have felt run down the last few days. I haven't worked since March and we never go anywhere, so it must be airborne or they are injecting it crown royal and pinot noir. Whoever they is.

[drt 637]

God fucking damnit this is the texas thread.  Take this shit to the general thread or the CR thread.

[Brisketexan 104561]

4 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

LOL, "significantly"..... were open @ like 25+%.  They were barely entering Phase II, which was only after vetting that each and every one allowed to open accounted for testing, contact tracing, distancing, etc.  

Which we were at months ago, yet saw no spikes or surges.  Yet across the state we saw a significant and widespread occurrence of people....yet it's shrugged off as having a minimal impact.  Sure, this was a minimal impact.  Got it....

Cool.....now do New York, which had MASSIVE protests.....https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page   That's just one example.

And, to extrapolate your conclusion correctly, you believe that large groups, outdoors, even when many are wearing masks, are not just a significant source of transmission, but are among the BIGGEST sources of transmission?  Because that's what your conclusion means.  Is that your conclusion?  Pay attention to the implication of that conclusion, and what it means for beaches, parks, sporting events, and every other activity where there might be a group outdoors.

 

Edited July 2, 2020 by Brisketexan

[BabaYaga 15209]

2 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

Whole family got tested this morning at Comal County health department. In and out in 20 minutes in the drive through. Wife and I have felt run down the last few days. I haven't worked since March and we never go anywhere, so it must be airborne or they are injecting it crown royal and pinot noir. Whoever they is.

Not enough talk about this:  immune strength.  Vitamin D.  Rest.  Recovery.  Heat-shock proteins.  A better diet.  Exercise.  All the "other" bugs are still with us.  Colds, flu, step, etc.