COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[achooloco 1065]

5 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Is Houston actually going down and Austin leveling off, or is this just because we are running out of rapid result tests and going to less testing or delayed result testing that will take a week to show up in the numbers?

Wasn’t it up thread that people were saying they were also limiting tests to those who needed hospitalization? 
 

edit: just saying I have no idea on the reason, just throwing out possible reasons evidenced in this thread

Edited July 3, 2020 by achooloco

[Iceman 2639]

7 hours ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

Did you go to Eustace?

I live full time here on the lake. Henderson County had 17 positive test today.  There were several tied to a local restaurant.  When I got tested yesterday I saw at least 6 others tested. My Dr Said he tested 35 yesterday with 4 positives. They are also undercounting here. I know one household that has 4 people with COVID but they only officially tested 1 and that is the official reported number. 

is there a stated (or understood) reason why?

[bolverk 29397]

36 minutes ago, achooloco said:

Wasn’t it up thread that people were saying they were also limiting tests to those who needed hospitalization were showing symptoms? 
 

edit: just saying I have no idea on the reason, just throwing out possible reasons evidenced in this thread

Yeah, I'm not sure I follow exactly what he was asking.

Looking at both the Harris and Travis public health dashboards, it does look like the daily count of new confirmed cases has leveled off after an initial spike. For Travis, it kind of looks like that might have been occurring prior to the announcement of limiting testing to only those showing symptoms, which could imply that we've (hopefully) only reached a new plateau and aren't continuing to climb.

I can't speak to the testing situation in Houston though.

[bolverk 29397]

39 minutes ago, Iceman said:

is there a stated (or understood) reason why?

It might just be as simple as knowing that the others in the family have been exposed so just keep them quarantined rather than dragging them out to get tested (and possibly expose others in public while doing so) and also to limit wasting the test kits. I'm pretty sure that what we're seeing in all these charts/graphs is the number of "confirmed" cases, so I'm not sure I would've used the term "undercount" in what they're describing. I'm also not sure what I would describe it as, but I certainly wouldn't think it was part of some deliberate effort to minimize the number of cases.

[kevwun 15624]

They call it an assumed positive and in cases like that I agree with not using tests if the family has already agreed to quarantine.

Edited July 3, 2020 by kevwun

[Hate 20103]

I have a nephew in Louisiana that tested positive yesterday.  He just graduated from HS, so he is still at home with my sister.  My sister and BIL both tested negative, which is just about impossible given what we know about this virus.  They were actually on their way to Lake Buchanan for a family reunion when they were notified by a friend that my nephew had been exposed to it.  They were about an hour away from a houseful of 70+ year olds when they got the news.  The reunion has since been canceled.  My sister and BIL are going to get re-tested either in the next few days and have already begun quarantining.  They are both mid fifties and in pretty good shape, so hopefully they should weather it fairly well. 

[BradInATX 9208]

16 minutes ago, Hate said:

I have a nephew in Louisiana that tested positive yesterday.  He just graduated from HS, so he is still at home with my sister.  My sister and BIL both tested negative, which is just about impossible given what we know about this virus.  They were actually on their way to Lake Buchanan for a family reunion when they were notified by a friend that my nephew had been exposed to it.  They were about an hour away from a houseful of 70+ year olds when they got the news.  The reunion has since been canceled.  My sister and BIL are going to get re-tested either in the next few days and have already begun quarantining.  They are both mid fifties and in pretty good shape, so hopefully they should weather it fairly well. 

There's actually a lot of data showing that it's pretty common for one member of the household to get it and nobody else end up with it. It's pretty weird, because that's not how most other bugs work. It seems like some people are "spreaders" and some aren't. So it's possible he didn't spread it to anyone. Hope all turns out OK for him and the family.

[Hate 20103]

3 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

There's actually a lot of data showing that it's pretty common for one member of the household to get it and nobody else end up with it. It's pretty weird, because that's not how most other bugs work. It seems like some people are "spreaders" and some aren't. So it's possible he didn't spread it to anyone. Hope all turns out OK for him and the family.

Thanks.  I hope that's the case, but I'm not very optimistic.  He not only lives with them, but they were also all in the car together for about 16-18 hours.  He has no symptoms so maybe he isn't one that spreads it.  We'll know in the next few days.  I'm just glad they caught it before they got to the lake house with all of my 70+ aunts and uncles.  My sister and BIL have both been pretty careful about being out and about.  They were masks and generally have been staying home (haven't been to restaurants or other large gatherings).  My nephew went to a retirement party for one of his girlfriend's relatives and apparently caught it there. 

[Guest Lobo]

Well at least the young man has great ammo for getting frequent, wild sex for the next few months from his girlfriend.

"Hey remember that time you dragged me to a fucking lame retirement party for some distant relative of yours when we were barely dating...and I contracted Covid-19 at that idiotic inside mass gathering and could have died?  Yeah, here's some magnesium citrate and some lube.  Sunday's gonna get weird in the bedroom, start getting ready now."  

[atomheartbevo 89409]

https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/abbott-this-is-the-last-best-chance-to-contain-covid-19-before-shutting-down-again/

Quote

“If we do not contain this measure right now, we will lose the last, best chance to slow the coronavirus for anything short of having to shut our economy back down,” Gov. Abbott said in an interview with KTAB. “That’s the last thing we want to have happen in Texas.”

Quote

“Our goal is to make sure that people will be able to continue to prosper while also protecting their lives,” said Abbott. “We can achieve both by having people wear face masks.

“This was really always going to be a last option,” said Abbott. “What we’ve seen over the past few weeks has been a spiraling out of control in the amount of people who are getting COVID-19, the amount of hospitalizations that we’re seeing and an increase in deaths we’re seeing.”

 

Quote

Gov. Abbott said “alarm bells” went off because of the state’s recent rising positivity rate. To combat the rising rates, Abbott said he needed to mandate face masks. He cited doctors saying the best way to slow the spread is by wearing face masks.

 

[Armybrat 40725]

20 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

There's actually a lot of data showing that it's pretty common for one member of the household to get it and nobody else end up with it. It's pretty weird, because that's not how most other bugs work. It seems like some people are "spreaders" and some aren't. So it's possible he didn't spread it to anyone. Hope all turns out OK for him and the family.

Both my dad and grandpa suffered severe cases of the Spanish flu in 1918 and nearly died. The only reason they didn’t croak is because my grandma nursed them through it for several weeks without catching it herself.
They lived in a rural Missouri town - population about 200.

[atomheartbevo 89409]

9 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Both my dad and grandpa suffered severe cases of the Spanish flu in 1918 and nearly died.

Wow, don't hear of many people who were over the age of 100 surviving the Spanish Flu.

[Pato del Muerto 52340]

22 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/abbott-this-is-the-last-best-chance-to-contain-covid-19-before-shutting-down-again/

 

 

Piece of shit. This was something he should have done 2 weeks ago when it was obvious that asking for mask usage wasn’t working. 

[Leeroy Jenkins 2389]

is there a stated (or understood) reason why?

No official reason stated. My guess is that they didn’t want to waste tests when then already knew the answer.

 

I did hear that many places around here ran out of tests yesterday.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11807]

5 minutes ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

No official reason stated. My guess is that they didn’t want to waste tests when then already knew the answer.

 

I did hear that many places around here ran out of tests yesterday.

We can’t do work in Alaska now, because we can’t meet the 72 hour test requirements.   What a shitshow.   

[CooterBrown 17904]

Picked up donuts for the kids at Donut Crown on Burnet. I was the only one in there until I went to pay and about a dozen people crowded in at once. It’s only about 12x10 in there. 2 of the kids in tow had no masks. Do people not realize that social distancing still applies with masks? Why bring your kids in without masks? You don’t get to pick out your own donuts without a a mask you entitled crotch stain. They can infect the masked parents later at home. People are so stupid.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11807]

15 hours ago, JBJ said:

May 29 were the initial riot-ish protests in Texas (Dallas and Houston).  I think Dallas estimated 1,000 people that day but they were spread out between Deep Ellum, the Goverment district, and Uptown.  Austin had "dozens" at APD/City Hall.

The following weekend were the more organized, massive, peaceful protests.  The majority of photos come from June 6th and 7th and they dwindle out from there.  Of course, there was June 3rd in Houston also.

I hope your dumbass isn’t procreating.  

[Anastasis 23393]

1 minute ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

I hope your dumbass isn’t procreating.  

A little too early for the sauce judge. 

[Radical Larry 28528]

Hey, it’s a holiday weekend.

[Anastasis 23393]

9 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

Picked up donuts for the kids at Donut Crown on Burnet. I was the only one in there until I went to pay and about a dozen people crowded in at once. It’s only about 12x10 in there. 2 of the kids in tow had no masks. Do people not realize that social distancing still applies with masks? Why bring your kids in without masks? You don’t get to pick out your own donuts without a a mask you entitled crotch stain. They can infect the masked parents later at home. People are so stupid.

And I don't get these people bitching about their kids can't wear masks.  Sure they can.  Parent them. Unless there is a special needs issue or some other problem, your five year old is capable of wearing a mask. 

[BradInATX 9208]

13 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

I hope your dumbass isn’t procreating.  

I appreciate that he's taking a shine to analytics. I'm guessing he's either a student who is dabbling in analytics, or his job a small on-the-side responsibility for some spreadsheets and/or dashboards. Some of my best client contacts are guys who started out like that and grew into full-time professional analytics roles. I was probably a little hard on him yesterday and @JBJ  I apologize for that. I don't have a problem with people doing simple, small-dataset studies for very complex problems. It's how you learn. But it's a little irresponsible to then present that on a public message board as if you've done something that discovers any sort of truth (and then handcuff an opinion that you admittedly just made up "it's about 50-60% protests" to your data work). It's the same reason that ChiTownDoc gets pissy when people promote bad medical advice. It makes the science of it look bad and it's just not responsible to do with something like a pandemic. 

But anyway, JBJ, I appreciate your intellectual curiosity. I think what you're attempting to do with the protest thing is a bit agenda-driven and you'll need to learn to keep that out of your work if you're trying to do analytics professionally. But keep doing what you're doing. 

Edited July 3, 2020 by BradInATX

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

Wow, don't hear of many people who were over the age of 100 surviving the Spanish Flu.

When your family blood lines are 100% pure bad ass, you survive anything.

[crash_davis 23083]

18 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

fucking restrooms and water fountains are staying open.

 

fucking restrooms are where you get AIDS. 

 

2 hours ago, Hate said:

I have a nephew in Louisiana that tested positive yesterday.  He just graduated from HS, so he is still at home with my sister.  My sister and BIL both tested negative, which is just about impossible given what we know about this virus.  They were actually on their way to Lake Buchanan for a family reunion when they were notified by a friend that my nephew had been exposed to it.  They were about an hour away from a houseful of 70+ year olds when they got the news.  The reunion has since been canceled.  My sister and BIL are going to get re-tested either in the next few days and have already begun quarantining.  They are both mid fifties and in pretty good shape, so hopefully they should weather it fairly well. 

 

32 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

We can’t do work in Alaska now, because we can’t meet the 72 hour test requirements.   What a shitshow.   

 

I believe places in Austin will not test unless you have symptoms. The only place I found which does fast test is Texas MedClinic. My wife got her results in a hour. Don't bother trying to book a reservation on their website. You have to do it in person, which is what my wife did yesterday. They were going to schedule her for the next day but had a cancellation while she was talking to the desk lady. 

She has some symptoms (nausea, threw up once, diarrhea, fatigue), on and off low fever. Her test came back negative. Doc said it's most likely a false negative and treat it as such. Social distance, mask, and quarantine at home. My understanding is that if takes some days to build up the antibodies to register on the tests. Also helps if you have a fever, or so I was told.  She didn't have one all day yesterday so that prob contributed to the false negative. So the fact that the family tested negative may be that they haven't had it long enough. But I may be full of shit, who knows.

Edited July 3, 2020 by crash_davis

[Telegraph_it 3354]

5 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I appreciate that he's taking a shine to analytics. I'm guessing he's either a student who is dabbling in analytics, or his job a small on-the-side responsibility for some spreadsheets and/or dashboards. Some of my best client contacts are guys who started out like that and grew into full-time professional analytics roles. I was probably a little hard on him yesterday and @JBJ  I apologize for that. I don't have a problem with people doing really basic studies for very complex problems. It's how you learn. But it's a little irresponsible to then present that on a public message board as if you've done something that discovers any sort of truth (and then handcuff an opinion that you admittedly just made up "it's about 50-60% protests" to your data work). It's the same reason that ChiTownDoc gets pissy when people promote bad medical advice. It makes the science of it look bad and it's just not responsible to do with something like a pandemic. 

But anyway, JBJ, I appreciate your intellectual curiosity. I think what you're attempting to do with the protest thing is a bit agenda-driven and you'll need to learn to keep that out of your work if you're trying to do analytics professionally. But keep doing what you're doing. 

[EuroHorn 3204]

Just now, Telegraph_it said:

Lol...

Edited July 3, 2020 by EuroHorn

[BradInATX 9208]

1 minute ago, Telegraph_it said:

[Iceman 2639]

11 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

And I don't get these people bitching about their kids can't wear masks.  Sure they can.  Parent them. Unless there is a special needs issue or some other problem, your five year old is capable of wearing a mask. 

all it would have taken with our kids is this and they would have been all-in:

[Bobby_Batronic 1994]

1 hour ago, Lobo said:

Well at least the young man has great ammo for getting frequent, wild sex for the next few months from his girlfriend.

"Hey remember that time you dragged me to a fucking lame retirement party for some distant relative of yours when we were barely dating...and I contracted Covid-19 at that idiotic inside mass gathering and could have died?  Yeah, here's some magnesium citrate and some lube.  Sunday's gonna get weird in the bedroom, start getting ready now."  

Just a friendly suggestion. Consider not sharing all the sexually explicit things that run through your head. Or at least trot out the June Cleaver version. 

[Anastasis 23393]

8 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I appreciate that he's taking a shine to analytics. I'm guessing he's either a student who is dabbling in analytics, or his job a small on-the-side responsibility for some spreadsheets and/or dashboards. Some of my best client contacts are guys who started out like that and grew into full-time professional analytics roles. I was probably a little hard on him yesterday and @JBJ  I apologize for that. I don't have a problem with people doing simple, small-dataset studies for very complex problems. It's how you learn. But it's a little irresponsible to then present that on a public message board as if you've done something that discovers any sort of truth (and then handcuff an opinion that you admittedly just made up "it's about 50-60% protests" to your data work). It's the same reason that ChiTownDoc gets pissy when people promote bad medical advice. It makes the science of it look bad and it's just not responsible to do with something like a pandemic. 

But anyway, JBJ, I appreciate your intellectual curiosity. I think what you're attempting to do with the protest thing is a bit agenda-driven and you'll need to learn to keep that out of your work if you're trying to do analytics professionally. But keep doing what you're doing. 

Who needs to go to the beach anyways, BradInATX is storing all the sand in his vagina.

You haven't really critiqued his methodology in a meaningful way. Personal attacks and ad hominem doesn't really impress. 

[BradInATX 9208]

6 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

You haven't really critiqued his methodology in a meaningful way.

lol. I did - but I'm not trying to be the triplehorn to your Anastasis today so I'm not going to rehash it all.

 

Quote

Personal attacks and ad hominem doesn't really impress.

No personal attacks. I'm being serious. I deal with analysts of all experience levels constantly and have a pretty good barometer for judging where they're at. If I'm wrong about his experience level then fuck it; he should know better.

Edited July 3, 2020 by BradInATX

[EuroHorn 3204]

2 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Who needs to go to the beach anyways, BradInATX is storing all the sand in his vagina.

You haven't really critiqued his methodology in a meaningful way. Personal attacks and ad hominem doesn't really impress. 

It was just a bit condescending...

[Anastasis 23393]

22 minutes ago, Radical Larry said:

Hey, it’s a holiday weekend.

[Anastasis 23393]

8 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

lol. I did

Speaking of people who should know better. 

[Anastasis 23393]

Personally, I think that a difference in differences analysis would be better, but I am not sure that we could ever adequately control for all of the other confounding factors involved. 

[crash_davis 23083]

9 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

lol. I did - but I'm not trying to be the triplehorn to your Anastasis today so I'm not going to rehash it all.

 

No personal attacks. I'm being serious. I deal with analysts of all experience levels constantly and have a pretty good barometer for judging where they're at. If I'm wrong about his experience level then fuck it; he should know better.

Analytics Smack. We've attained a new level of greatness on this site.

 

[pearlandhorn 3269]

1 hour ago, Armybrat said:

Both my dad and grandpa suffered severe cases of the Spanish flu in 1918 and nearly died. The only reason they didn’t croak is because my grandma nursed them through it for several weeks without catching it herself.
They lived in a rural Missouri town - population about 200.

Curious - which town in Missouri?

[Judge Roybeanbag 11807]

32 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

A little too early for the sauce judge. 

The sauce doesn’t pick favorites.   

[Dbeasy 14963]

Picked up donuts for the kids at Donut Crown on Burnet. I was the only one in there until I went to pay and about a dozen people crowded in at once. It’s only about 12x10 in there. 2 of the kids in tow had no masks. Do people not realize that social distancing still applies with masks? Why bring your kids in without masks? You don’t get to pick out your own donuts without a a mask you entitled crotch stain. They can infect the masked parents later at home. People are so stupid.

Entitled Crotch Stain is not a very good band name.

[BradInATX 9208]

Personally, I think that a difference in differences analysis would be better, but I am not sure that we could ever adequately control for all of the other confounding factors involved. 

That's basically what the NBER study was, except they compared each city against a projection instead of baseline (in an attempt to control for the "confounding factors"). It's an impressive piece of work.

[Anastasis 23393]

5 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

17 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Personally, I think that a difference in differences analysis would be better, but I am not sure that we could ever adequately control for all of the other confounding factors involved. 

 

That's basically what the NBER study was, except they compared each city against a projection instead of baseline (in an attempt to control for the "confounding factors"). It's an impressive piece of work.

I don't think that the study time frame adequately accounts for the lag between exposure and testing, and testing and results showing up in the data.  They also don't account for indirect influence of protests on covid transmission. But I agree that the design is nice and it is otherwise a well executed study. 

Edited July 3, 2020 by Anastasis

[Armybrat 40725]

12 minutes ago, pearlandhorn said:

Curious - which town in Missouri?

Graham -  Northwest corner between St. Joe & Maryville

[BradInATX 9208]

Analytics Smack. We've attained a new level of greatness on this site.
 

Guilty. I need some football in my life.

[Guest Lobo]

59 minutes ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

Just a friendly suggestion. Consider not sharing all the sexually explicit things that run through your head. Or at least trot out the June Cleaver version. 

"The June Cleaver version"???  Are you fucking new here?  You sure you're on the right website?  This is surlyhorns.com  One of the most deranged and demented corners of the interwebs.  Sorry to offend you and sorry you're having your period during a fun holiday weekend.  

[crash_davis 23083]

Just now, BradInATX said:

Guilty. I need some football in my life.

I laugh because I lead a Data and Analytics team. Listening to my Data Scientist and engineers discuss/argue methods, procedures and data is entertaining. Never thought I'd see the same type of discussion/arguments here but I am often proven wrong by this site.

[atomheartbevo 89409]

1 hour ago, crash_davis said:

fucking restrooms are where you get AIDS. 

I don't know about th....oh.

[Burt Macklin 18996]

3 hours ago, Hate said:

I have a nephew in Louisiana that tested positive yesterday.  He just graduated from HS, so he is still at home with my sister.  My sister and BIL both tested negative, which is just about impossible given what we know about this virus.  They were actually on their way to Lake Buchanan for a family reunion when they were notified by a friend that my nephew had been exposed to it.  They were about an hour away from a houseful of 70+ year olds when they got the news.  The reunion has since been canceled.  My sister and BIL are going to get re-tested either in the next few days and have already begun quarantining.  They are both mid fifties and in pretty good shape, so hopefully they should weather it fairly well. 

There appears to be some sort of an issue with your post displaying for me. I see the part where you talk about your sister being in pretty good shape, but the photos don’t seem to be loading. 

Edited July 3, 2020 by Burt Macklin

[BrazilHorn 6576]

Updated demographic counts. Hispanics make highest % of cases w/e 6/30 at 64% as well as the highest total # (238).

	Asian Black White Hispanic Other 3/15/20 0 0 1 1 0 3/22/20 1 2 8 6 1 3/29/20 0 1 7 12 0 4/5/20 0 3 6 13 1 4/12/20 1 2 13 13 2 4/19/20 0 2 6 7 1 4/26/20 0 2 3 9 0 5/3/20 1 3 11 27 0 5/19/20 1 7 12 36 3 5/26/20 0 4 11 35 1 6/1/20 0 10 15 62 1 6/9/20 2 18 40 95 6 6/16/20 1 10 24 70 3 6/23/2020 3 22 70 153 7 6/30/2020 4 30 89 238 8

 

 

[justhookit 4178]

13 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

So what are we looking at in nutshell?

Leveling/down: Houston/corpus

Still going up: Dallas/Austin/SA?

LOL at Corpus leveling or down. We’ve broken our new case record 4 of the last 7 days. 57% of our total cases since this started are in the last 7 days. Oh, and we are out of county tests. 

[Pato del Muerto 52340]

1 minute ago, justhookit said:

LOL at Corpus leveling or down. We’ve broken our new case record 4 of the last 7 days. 57% of our total cases since this started are in the last 7 days. Oh, and we are out of county tests. 

So your positive numbers will go down now. 

[Trey3216 15325]

1 hour ago, pearlandhorn said:

Curious - which town in Missouri?

Independence