COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[GRHorn 105]

20 hours ago, Message Board User said:

Fucking crazy - local clinics are now quoting 10-14 days as the time it takes to get back the results of Covid 19 tests.

There's very little point in testing if that's accurate.

Where is this?

[Huckleberry 32859]

9 minutes ago, bluto said:

Might wanna include day after 35 in your post

Yeah, I was wondering how a mayor was going to shut down an interstate. 

[justhookit 4191]

6 hours ago, Pimphand said:

I realize deaths are a lagging indicator but when does that spike kick in?

6/16 was the day the daily cases spiked from 2k to 4k and since then we have spiked to 8k.

Deaths still have never exceeded 58 in a day which happened on 5/14 before the protests and a solid month before the case spikes.

With as much hand wringing as is done here over hospital capacity I'd expect the bodies to start piling up in greater capacity.

Should see the deaths start to climb over the next week or two. For numerous reasons I don’t think it will be bodies in trees bad and certainly won’t track the same rate of increase that cases are on. I hope I’m right.

[Guest Lobo]

While I agree with the Mayor at this point that something drastic has to be done in order for schools to work effectively this Fall, 

a 35-day shut down may be a moot point because how schools open up will be largely dictated by TEA, TSBOE, and the myriad school districts.  I know the AISD board was in on this discussion with him, but he constantly forgets (and bugs the fuck out of us) that 40% of his city does not attend AISD schools.  We live in your city limits sir, but we do not all attend AISD or private schools.  I know our district hasn't been approached at all by the Mayor to discuss anything on reopening, other than just a boiler plate email of general guidelines.  

But again, I'll give him credit.  He's talking about bold and decisive action and it's gonna be done toot-sweet, because we are flaring up in Austin AND running out of time before the mid-August scheduled openings of hundreds of area schools which is going to bring with it another spike.  

 

[3adays 454]

It was a fun morning at my wife’s grandmother’s house. We had been there since Friday with about 10 family members who’ve been relatively isolated since March. Everything was going well until her uncle who is a commercial airline pilot decided to show up while we were asleep last night.  According to other family members who were still awake, this guy  was in a mask, says one of his flight attendants tested positive in the last week and has a sore throat.

Upon waking up this morning and being informed of this, I promptly packed up our shit and left with my wife and 3 yr old. We were supposed to stay another night, but fuck that!

[dcar00 14182]

"two weeks/Italy" is the new "Tuesday's the big day"

[Dilligas 666]

Just talked to my neighbors who took a drive yesterday along River Road in NB. Said every campground was packed with no vacancy signs.

Of course the spot at US 281 was nut to butt as always

[Bozo_Casanova 26451]

2 hours ago, Anastasis said:

It’s amazing to me that we don’t have widespread point of service rapid testing in place at this point. 

We burnt it down

[Anastasis 23469]

Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

We burnt it down

Cute quip, but not accurate.

We funneled our diagnostic development through bureaucrat entities that amplified choke point risks.  Instead of using the SK approach, which brought sophisticated testing capacity quickly online, we first required that people at the CDC make basic science mistakes and coupled that with slow and counter productive FDA bureaucracy.

[justhookit 4191]

14 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

"two weeks/Italy" is the new "Tuesday's the big day"

I mean this isn’t even worth a discussion. It’s math. This isn’t the right thread for you.

[Guest Lobo]

When I think about how the NIH should have directed the FDA and CDC to follow the SK on COVID, I think of this scene from Good Morning Vietnam.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ge6QPJfrGcY 

I'd laugh even harder if their bumbling hasn't cost us lives.  

[TXSG8R 3362]

3 hours ago, landman said:

The cases with severe or permanent lung damage are rare. It wont be an entire generation, or even close to it. 

https://www.bannerhealth.com/healthcareblog/teach-me/what-long-term-effects-could-covid19-have-on-your-lungs

Nothing is certain yet, but SARS is a good metric to use for long term damage since they both cause ARDS and have show ground glass opacities in infected patients.  

 

[InkaUtexas 25918]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Adler is tossing out a 35-shutdown to see what the support for it is.  He's talking there being a definite date that it ends, talking to modelers, etc.

 

Damn, close down 35 is going to make mopac even more of a bitch. 

[atomheartbevo 89659]

53 minutes ago, bluto said:

Might wanna include day after 35 in your post

44 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Yeah, I was wondering how a mayor was going to shut down an interstate. 

1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

Damn, close down 35 is going to make mopac even more of a bitch. 

Would anybody realize 35 was shutdown?

 

 

[South Austin 52490]

Seems like Adler will need Abbott’s support, because the Governor doesn’t believe local governments had the authority to shut down much of anything.

[Anastasis 23469]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Adler is tossing out a 35-shutdown to see what the support for it is.  He's talking there being a definite date that it ends, talking to modelers, etc.

 

 

 

This dumbfuck exhausted our testing capacity by telling 10s of thousands of protests to go get testing no matter whether they were symptomatic or not, then had to revise guidance to "please only get tested if you are showing symptoms of COVID".  Positivity of course spikes, so now he wants to shut down for 35 days? Do I have that fairly right?

Edited July 5, 2020 by Anastasis
highways, days? Whats teh difference.

[atomheartbevo 89659]

27 minutes ago, Lobo said:

While I agree with the Mayor at this point that something drastic has to be done in order for schools to work effectively this Fall, 

a 35-day shut down may be a moot point because how schools open up will be largely dictated by TEA, TSBOE, and the myriad school districts.  I know the AISD board was in on this discussion with him, but he constantly forgets (and bugs the fuck out of us) that 40% of his city does not attend AISD schools.  We live in your city limits sir, but we do not all attend AISD or private schools.  I know our district hasn't been approached at all by the Mayor to discuss anything on reopening, other than just a boiler plate email of general guidelines.  

But again, I'll give him credit.  He's talking about bold and decisive action and it's gonna be done toot-sweet, because we are flaring up in Austin AND running out of time before the mid-August scheduled openings of hundreds of area schools which is going to bring with it another spike.  

He and AISD are under a lot of pressure to make sure the schools open face-to-face next month, because there's a shit-ton of parents who cannot (or don't want to) take off from work (or work from home) to take care of their kids, who cannot afford a nanny or daycare (I know there's assistance for those who need it, but many don't qualify, but can't afford it either), etc.  That has implications all throughout the Austin economy.  

He's also under pressure on the hospital front, and everybody is getting nervous about that.    Even if we were to plateau today, and just coast along between 300-700 newly confirmed cases a day, and 50-60 hospitalizations a day, our hospitals and the workers probably cannot handle that over a month or two.  That will also pretty much ensure that many things in the fall will not happen, whether it's UT football or large gatherings or whatever (ACL won't be the only victim).  So there's a lot of financial pressure on that front to get things under control now.

And we are not getting another round of stimulus checks or assistance - that's pretty much been decided if you've been watching the comments coming out of DC.  So if, instead of a shutdown this month for a clearly defined time limit of 35 days, we roll right into a situation where we shutdown in a few months, and don't know if it'll be for a month or two months, well that's going to make the economy here on July 5 look peachy keen.

I'm not sure what's the proper solution, but it's starting to feel like we can eat half of a shit sandwich now, or eat the whole thing a month or two down the road.

[atomheartbevo 89659]

15 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

This dumbfuck exhausted our testing capacity by telling 10s of thousands of protests to go get testing no matter whether they were symptomatic or not, then had to revise guidance to "please only get tested if you are showing symptoms of COVID".  Positivity of course spikes, so now he wants to shut down for 35 days? Do I have that fairly right?

I think positivity rates catch people's attention, and are easy for people to digest, but I think the hospitalization increases are what's driving this.

[gmr548 16576]

1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

Yeah, I was wondering how a mayor was going to shut down an interstate. 

I read it the same way. And was confused, because I-35 being shut down is going back to normal.

[DDD Dad 14339]

Yeah, I was wondering how a mayor was going to shut down an interstate. 

Hell most of the time it pretty much shuts itself down.

 

ETA: [mention]atomheartbevo [/mention] beat me to it.

[gmr548 16576]

1 hour ago, 3adays said:

It was a fun morning at my wife’s grandmother’s house. We had been there since Friday with about 10 family members who’ve been relatively isolated since March. Everything was going well until her uncle who is a commercial airline pilot decided to show up while we were asleep last night.  According to other family members who were still awake, this guy  was in a mask, says one of his flight attendants tested positive in the last week and has a sore throat.

Upon waking up this morning and being informed of this, I promptly packed up our shit and left with my wife and 3 yr old. We were supposed to stay another night, but fuck that!

Anyone old enough to have grown, married grandchildren has got to be really up there. Someone flying regularly under the same roof is a big ol' no.

[G650 14254]

53 minutes ago, justhookit said:

I mean this isn’t even worth a discussion. It’s math. This isn’t the right thread for you.

He's committed, you have to give him that.

[3adays 454]

11 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Anyone old enough to have grown, married grandchildren has got to be really up there. Someone flying regularly under the same roof is a big ol' no.

Grandma is 86. Her son is the pilot. What the fuck is he thinking? 

[atomheartbevo 89659]

50 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Seems like Adler will need Abbott’s support, because the Governor doesn’t believe local governments had the authority to shut down much of anything.

Abbott didn't do the statewide mask thing for nothing.  The numbers have him spooked enough he's wiling to risk pissing some people off.

[dcar00 14182]

12 minutes ago, G650 said:

He's committed, you have to give him that.

yes I'm committed that deaths will rise as cases rise.

[Armybrat 40839]

7 hours ago, Pimphand said:

This isn't exclusively a Texas thing either as basically Florida is doing the exact same thing just doing it even better than TX

Friend of mine in London sent me this after their bars opened yesterday...

 

[Armybrat 40839]

2 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Looks like you had some kind of technical error, te pics aren't showing up. 

He said he’s smoking drugs, so we have to wait.

[South Austin 52490]

14 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Abbott didn't do the statewide mask thing for nothing.  The numbers have him spooked enough he's wiling to risk pissing some people off.

He’d piss off a ton of people, and I’m skeptical he’d do it.

[Anastasis 23469]

55 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I think positivity rates catch people's attention, and are easy for people to digest, but I think the hospitalization increases are what's driving this.

Hospitalization numbers are not nearly as much fun to rant about. 

 

I just read the tweet and was going on that.

[mdmost 43001]

30 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Friend of mine in London sent me this after their bars opened yesterday...

 

Just looking at that makes me leery. England will have its first whiff of if they're getting another wave around this coming Friday as that will be 14 days after Liverpool won the EPL and a ton of Liverpudlians went out to party in the city that evening. 

[Hmbre97 6308]

It was a fun morning at my wife’s grandmother’s house. We had been there since Friday with about 10 family members who’ve been relatively isolated since March. Everything was going well until her uncle who is a commercial airline pilot decided to show up while we were asleep last night.  According to other family members who were still awake, this guy  was in a mask, says one of his flight attendants tested positive in the last week and has a sore throat.
Upon waking up this morning and being informed of this, I promptly packed up our shit and left with my wife and 3 yr old. We were supposed to stay another night, but fuck that!

Why even be there in the first place? Especially around old people. Has everyone just ignored the stories of families having parties and shit, then half the family winds up in the hospital because a single person infected everyone? Irresponsible as fuck.

[pantone159 719]

52 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Just looking at that makes me leery. England will have its first whiff of if they're getting another wave around this coming Friday as that will be 14 days after Liverpool won the EPL and a ton of Liverpudlians went out to party in the city that evening. 

Admit it, you replied just for an excuse to type 'Liverpudlian'. At least, I did.

 

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

16 minutes ago, pantone159 said:

Admit it, you replied just for an excuse to type 'Liverpudlian'. At least, I did.

 

Scouse is the preferred nomenclature

[Pato del Muerto 52492]

3 hours ago, justhookit said:

Should see the deaths start to climb over the next week or two. For numerous reasons I don’t think it will be bodies in trees bad and certainly won’t track the same rate of increase that cases are on. I hope I’m right.

I think the trend will be

young people get it

young people give it to older/vulnerable 

Older/vulnerable go to hospital 

then some die. 
 

You guys are still somewhere around step 2-3.  I have no evidence, just conjecture so it would be cool to be wrong. 

[Guest Lobo]

^

Yeah, that math checks out.   

We're really gonna see how young people/children transmit this thing when schools reopen next month.  I don't know everybody is so relieved that so many of the new cases are young people.  They go out in public way more than the 70+ demographic where their selfish behavior effect more and more of us.  

I'm starting to think the best way to call attention to our need for our leaders to get our testing shitshow taken care of us is for all of us to stand really still.  Stand as still as you can, maybe get up on something tall and sturdy to you're easier to spot, but stay still.  And then someone will be you shortly.  

[DDD Dad 14339]

45 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I think the trend will be

young people get it

young people give it to older/vulnerable 

Older/vulnerable go to hospital 

then some die. 
 

You guys are still somewhere around step 2-3.  I have no evidence, just conjecture so it would be cool to be wrong. 

Username checks out.

[bolverk 29671]

I've got a problem and hopefully y'all can help me figure this out.

My daughter goes to school in Rochester, NY, and they have placed a 14-day quarantine on people traveling there from Texas.

In my garage, I have a car that I planned to give her. The way this was going to work was that I'd drive it to Lubbock, pick her up, road trip to NY, and fly back to Austin, leaving her at school with the car. Okay. Sounds easy peasy.

How exactly does the quarantine shit work? If I get a hotel room, they'll want to see my ID. The same goes for security at the airport. Am I going to have to quarantine in NY for 14 days too?

Edited July 5, 2020 by bolverk

[Armybrat 40839]

Youse is screwed.

Unless... you can meet her in a nearby state that doesn’t have a quarantine for crazy Texans, and fly back from there.

Edited July 5, 2020 by Armybrat

[NorthLoop 14195]

8 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Youse is screwed.

Unless... you can meet her in a nearby state that doesn’t have a quarantine for crazy Texans, and fly back from there.

First thing I thought of

[bolverk 29671]

5 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Youse is screwed.

Unless... you can meet her in a nearby state that doesn’t have a quarantine for crazy Texans, and fly back from there.

I'm thinking she'll likely need to fly up there alone and once the quarantine is over I can take some time off of work and deliver the car to her then. I dunno. Still trying to figure this out.

[Guest Lobo]

do you have a global entry or similar TSA piece of ID?   A passport might work, but those others are better.  You’re gonna a pick her up and drive to New York.  You don’t need a hotel until the lower Midwest who right now have no quarantine with us.   Probably Indiana.  So that’s fine.  You’re gonna fuel up and eat the second day in northern Pennsylvania.  You’re gonna stop her in Rochester and fly back from there. It’s gonna a miserable trip of connecting flights.  But you’re gonna buy a prepaid Visa card tomorrow and use it to book the flight and you’re gonna use her new Rochester address as the Purchasing Address.  She drives you to that airport or buffalo or Syracuse.  you don’t use Ride share.  You present a generic Govt ID (for some reason those global entry cards, nobody ever notices the address).  You don’t enter your rewards program info and you print your boarding pass on paper ahead of time, don’t scan your phone or ID  in the airport itself, just hand them the paper and National ID card, anything that doesn’t have TEXAS printed at the top.  They let you board the plane.  As for her, Your daughter wasn’t in Lubbock this summer.  She wasn’t even in Texas.  It will shock you how much she was never in Texas this summer.   She lays low, social distances, no reason to even alert anybody that got into town when she did, and she’s fine  

this will work and beats the fuck out of spending 14 days in upstste NY.   Next best option is just make the drive with her and say your goodbyes somewhere in northern Pennsylvania and have her drop you at some airport up there to fly home from, thus avoiding New York altogether.  
 

third option is to thank Dan Patrick for getting us into a position where a Texan has to lie and travel under cloak to be with his daughter in New YOrk State.   And offer to blow him for safe passage 

Edited July 5, 2020 by Lobo

[InkaUtexas 25918]

15 minutes ago, bolverk said:

I've got a problem and hopefully y'all can help me figure this out.

My daughter goes to school in Rochester, NY, and they have placed a 14-day quarantine on people traveling there from Texas.

In my garage, I have a car that I planned to give her. The way this was going to work was that I'd drive it to Lubbock, pick her up, road trip to NY, and fly back to Austin, leaving her at school with the car. Okay. Sounds easy peasy.

How exactly does the quarantine ahit work? If I get a hotel room, they'll want to see my ID. The same goes for security at the airport. Am I going to have to quarantine in NY for 14 days too?

Drive to border, get out, start walking back. 

[bolverk 29671]

Part of the original plan was to spend a night in Dayton, Ohio, where my biological mother and grandmother live (I'm adopted). My daughter has met my biological mother but not my g-mom. From there to Rochester is about 8 hours. It would've been perfect.

The best case for flying back from a non NY airport would be Cleveland, I think, but now I'm paranoid that Ohio will place a quarantine on Texans too.

Edited July 5, 2020 by bolverk

[Macanudo 12977]

6 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Drive to border, get out, start walking back. 

Oregon Trail - The 2020 Expansion Pack.

[Guest Lobo]

Swap Dayton for Indiana and my plan still works.  She drives you to Buffalo under my auspices and you’re home in 6 hours.
 

I feel for you but this is fixable and you need two people to make this drive. 
 

there are also door to door multi-modal  logistics companies that will get that there for you for $1000.  And you don’t have to spend $2000 staying in Rochester for two weeks or get arrested.  

Edited July 5, 2020 by Lobo

[InkaUtexas 25918]

6 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Swap Dayton for Indiana and my plan still works.  She drives you to Buffalo under my auspices and you’re home in 6 hours.
 

I feel for you but this is fixable and you need two people to make this drive. 
 

there are also door to door multi-modal  logistics companies that will get that there for you for $1000.  And you don’t have to spend $2000 staying in Rochester for two weeks or get arrested.  

[bolverk 29671]

17 minutes ago, Lobo said:

do you have a global entry or similar TSA piece of ID?   A passport might work, but those others are better.  You’re gonna a pick her up and drive to New York.  You don’t need a hotel until the lower Midwest who right now have no quarantine with us.   Probably Indiana.  So that’s fine.  You’re gonna fuel up and eat the second day in northern Pennsylvania.  You’re gonna stop her in Rochester and fly back from there. It’s gonna a miserable trip of connecting flights.  But you’re gonna buy a prepaid Visa card tomorrow and use it to book the flight and you’re gonna use her new Rochester address as the Purchasing Address.  She drives you to that airport or buffalo or Syracuse.  you don’t use Ride share.  You present a generic Govt ID (for some reason those global entry cards, nobody ever notices the address).  You don’t enter your rewards program info and you print your boarding pass on paper ahead of time, don’t scan your phone or ID  in the airport itself, just hand them the paper and National ID card, anything that doesn’t have TEXAS printed at the top.  They let you board the plane.

The ID stuff isn't likely to pan out. Yes, I used to fly all the time for my old job as about 2/3 of the clients were out of state. Since leaving there in 2014, I've only stepped into a plane once (I think), which is a weird thought now that I think of it after flying almost once per week.

Hell, even my passport is expired. The last international trip I've taken was Paris in 2013.

[Guest Lobo]

Dammit man, we were gonna have an epic story of exfiltration.  Go with my backup plan, drive with her, and get out of the car in NoPa and fly home from there.  It’s a good metaphor for helping them as much as we can as dads of daughters, but eventually letting them go to finish the journey of life.  Just tell her to pay cash in Rochester for awhile 

[InkaUtexas 25918]

5 minutes ago, bolverk said:

The ID stuff isn't likely to pan out. Yes, I used to fly all the time for my old job as about 2/3 of the clients were out of state. Since leaving there in 2014, I've only stepped into a plane once (I think), which is a weird thought now that I think of it after flying almost once per week.

Hell, even my passport is expired. The last international trip I've taken was Paris in 2013.

I took my kiddo to Rochester and Oswego last summer. From Terra Haute you can make the jump pretty quick. Only issue I could see would be the tolls near Buffalo. You can run back roads up there for sure but will add to the timeline. Downtown Rochester was fun. Spent a few nights there. Some great bars, etc. 

[bolverk 29671]

1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

I took my kiddo to Rochester and Oswego last summer. From Terra Haute you can make the jump pretty quick. Only issue I could see would be the tolls near Buffalo. You can run back roads up there for sure but will add to the timeline. Downtown Rochester was fun. Spent a few nights there. Some great bars, etc. 

I enjoyed the waterfall they have downtown and the freshwater beach.