COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[DDD Dad 14,572]

3 minutes ago, Bevo said:

So if we get back to manageable levels, the assholes probably won't be able to spread it again.

(PS not you, the assholes)

[drt 645]

1 minute ago, Bevo said:

Well, the good news is that after this outbreak most of the assholes will have already had the disease. So if we get back to manageable levels, the assholes probably won't be able to spread it again.

Immunity to other Coronaviruses commonly lasts between 8-15 months from what I've seen reported.  So it's probably more correct to say the assholes will probably have a while before they spread it again.

[Wally Pryor 5,388]

49 minutes ago, VolenteHawk said:

They’re gonna need the essential business list to be far shorter, which I don’t think anyone will have the stomach to do.

Nope, they would / will not have the stomach for it. 

 

[Samson's Wig 3,222]

I don't see a city with ~85% of homes that don't have kids in them willingly shutting down just so school can open in August.  Too many people don't have a direct stake.  

[Wally Pryor 5,388]

It's unlikely it will happen.  I've no doubt that Adler and the council will vote 11-0 for the lockdown.  But they still have hurdles to get over and very little time to do it.   All about politicizing things at this point.  Shocking, it is.  

[Foosters 18,230]

4 hours ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

And your kid is going to expose all of his classmates. And they are going home to expose their parents. I'm not calling you out, just pointing out the reality of what this fall is going to be like. 

Yep

[gmr548 16,681]

What does that mean for Texas OU I wonder?

I don't think they'd outright cancel the fair now if they thought Texas and OU were gonna play.

 

Edit: Saw the tweet above. To clarify, I'm not arguing that the game is impacted or can't be played without the fair. Of course it can. I think the fair wouldn't be canceling 2.5 months out unless they were reasonably sure they'd be losing by far their biggest revenue driver.

[smoky 842]

What does a 35 day shutdown look like? Haven't we been in a "Shelter in place" since March?

[atomheartbevo 90,550]

Better for the other thread.

Edited July 7, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[Foosters 18,230]

34 minutes ago, Longhornlax said:

What does that mean for Texas OU I wonder?

More importantly, what does that mean for the Houston Rodeo?

[atomheartbevo 90,550]

37 minutes ago, Longhornlax said:

What does that mean for Texas OU I wonder?

Lots more fighting between bored UT and OU fans before and after the game?

[atomheartbevo 90,550]

22 Austin cops test positive.

Given the amount of cops I saw without masks in various photos/videos in recent weeks, surprised it's not higher.

https://www.kxan.com/news/22-austin-police-officers-test-positive-for-covid-19/

 

Edited July 7, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 90,550]

1 hour ago, Bevo said:

So if the city says we need to shutdown, do we need to shutdown or do we wait for the state to chime in?

Is it legal for the state workers in Austin to go to work? Maybe they are in an autonomous zone. jk

Unless there's stimulus checks and money actually coming out of Washington, there are no shutdowns.  Abbott won't allow it, and Adler probably won't do it.

[elfenix 34,661]

1 hour ago, Texas Jeff said:

 YOLO or be careful out there?  What did you see and how did it compare to Memorial Day?

only a relative handful of people watching fireworks from buffalo bayou park.  usually waugh bridge is packed.  mask compliance strong to very strong. 

HEB started mandatory mask wearing for all stores about a week and a half ago, regardless of whether the county/city was requiring masks or not.

 

16 minutes ago, smoky said:

Haven't we been in a "Shelter in place" since March?

texas has not. 

Edited July 7, 2020 by elfenix

[BradInATX 9,208]

1 hour ago, Texas Jeff said:

Trying to get back on topic, what is the Surly consensus on Texans' behavior during the July 4th holiday?  YOLO or be careful out there?  What did you see and how did it compare to Memorial Day?

I only went to grocery stores, it was a pretty lame holiday weekend.  But I saw 100% masks when there and employees manning the door to check for masks.

We went out to a park on Lake Travis that I expected to be jam packed, since Pace Bend and a bunch of others were closed. It was not, closest group was 30 yards from us. Group of maybe 10 mid-20s folks. We talked to them for a bit from a distance; they didn't all live together but they were spacing themselves out pretty well and were very cognizant. At one point their dog yanked free and came over to us and a guy came over and apologized and was trying to figure out how to get the dog back without coming near us (lol). My wife commented that they were exactly like my friend group 15 years ago except not nearly as big of assholes as we were. She was right. I like Gen Z/Millennials/whatever the generations after me are. They are cool.

No other group came within half a football field of us. It was an awesome Saturday. I'm not sure if the park was not very crowded because of Covid, or because it's not very well-known. I was shocked.

Edited July 7, 2020 by BradInATX

[NorthLoop 14,421]

1 hour ago, Texas Jeff said:

Trying to get back on topic, what is the Surly consensus on Texans' behavior during the July 4th holiday?  YOLO or be careful out there?  What did you see and how did it compare to Memorial Day?

I only went to grocery stores, it was a pretty lame holiday weekend.  But I saw 100% masks when there and employees manning the door to check for masks.

Our suburban neighborhood had a block party with fireworks. We didn't go, but the facebook pics weren't good. Maybe 10% masks at best. Fucking idiots. 

[Smax 3,800]

What does that mean for Texas OU I wonder?

I doubt we will have a football season this year

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

53 minutes ago, Longhornlax said:

What does that mean for Texas OU I wonder?

lol.

[Bevo 13,829]

22 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Unless there's stimulus checks and money actually coming out of Washington, there are no shutdowns.  Abbott won't allow it, and Adler probably won't do it.

I agree. If Adler shut things down, not only would business owners complain but their employees would complain as well. In other words, I think there would be too much negative backlash for Adler to do it and not a whole lot of political capital to gain. Logically, he is better off just complaining about Abbott not doing enough. That gets him votes and prevents backlash.

Hopefully, this post is non-political. My basic concern is whether I will be forced to shutdown for a month and be left trying to figure out what to do with my employees.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

1 minute ago, Bevo said:

I agree. If Adler shut things down, not only would business owners complain but their employees would complain as well. In other words, I think there would be too much negative backlash for Adler to do it and not a whole lot of political capital to gain. Logically, he is better off just complaining about Abbott not doing enough. That gets him votes and prevents backlash.

Hopefully, this post is non-political. My basic concern is whether I will be forced to shutdown for a month and be left trying to figure out what to do with my employees.

i don't know what the answer is, but i'm certain whatever leadership decides will fuck everybody.

[Deej 77,676]

7 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I agree. If Adler shut things down, not only would business owners complain but their employees would complain as well. In other words, I think there would be too much negative backlash for Adler to do it and not a whole lot of political capital to gain. Logically, he is better off just complaining about Abbott not doing enough. That gets him votes and prevents backlash.

Hopefully, this post is non-political. My basic concern is whether I will be forced to shutdown for a month and be left trying to figure out what to do with my employees.

Adler is done. He can only serve two terms. What votes is he worried about?

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,964]

It would be no different than when Fair Park holds an event at the Cotton Bowl like the old Cotton Bowl bowl game. There just wouldn't be anything else around the stadium except for maybe a few vendors. But don't hold your breath on live football with fans this year anyway. 

Ok but what about the red river rivalry?

[Wally Pryor 5,388]

13 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I think there would be too much negative backlash for Adler to do it and not a whole lot of political capital to gain.

The funeral home director isn't up for re-election.  He's done after this term.

[LebongJames 1,900]

Let’s shut everything down to kick the can further down the road.

Unless there is an actual plan closing temporarily even for 35 days is a horrible decision that will just prolong everything.

 

[Michael Knight 13,187]

1 hour ago, Longhornlax said:

What does that mean for Texas OU I wonder?

 

[smoky 842]

Gonna need confirmation that Fletcher's and 6 ticket beer tent will be open.

[gmr548 16,681]

6 ticket beer tent

Sssssssshhhhhhh

[BradInATX 9,208]

23 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

 

 

[Skipper 6,406]

59 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I agree. If Adler shut things down, not only would business owners complain but their employees would complain as well. In other words, I think there would be too much negative backlash for Adler to do it and not a whole lot of political capital to gain. Logically, he is better off just complaining about Abbott not doing enough. That gets him votes and prevents backlash.

Hopefully, this post is non-political. My basic concern is whether I will be forced to shutdown for a month and be left trying to figure out what to do with my employees.

 

I'll be pretty shocked at this point if there is anything in place beyond the order issued last week.  At least not unless things get really dicey.  I'll give some credit to Abbot for the order last week as he no doubt took some blow back from the MAGA's even though it is essentially non-enforceable and has way too many politically convenient exceptions.  But going forward, I don't really expect much else.   Looking at it from a local level in Dallas, Jenkins is grandstanding sending letters to Abbot requesting power to implement another full shutdown as well.  I say it's grandstanding because as I understand it, Jenkins no longer has the authority to make decisions unilaterally, rather, it has to go through the commissioners court (and the letter was sent without discussing with the commissioners)  Of course, the R county commissioner called him out on the grandstanding and otherwise bitched and moaned about the lack of process, while, of course refusing to take any actual substantive position on whether he supports additional measures (i.e., he doesn't want political backlash of agreeing with the Jenkins). It was noticeable the R commissioner was anti-mask requirement when Jenkins supported it but then turned pro once Abbot implemented.  Shocker.    And then we have Abbot, who is now bitching at local leaders to enforce his perfectly good order instead of requesting additional authority (even though he knows damn well his order isn't really enforceable). 

  In sum, I fully expect every elected official, both D and R, to continue to do and say what they think is best for them politically, without actually accomplishing anything, as is par for the course.

[SubliminalHorn 6,995]

51 minutes ago, LebongJames said:

Let’s shut everything down to kick the can further down the road.

Unless there is an actual plan closing temporarily even for 35 days is a horrible decision that will just prolong everything.

 

What can is being kicked down the road? 

[royiv 9,699]

4 hours ago, Liquor and Poker said:

 You are 100% right on the parent thing.  It's a problem.  Logic tells me there are a lot of working parents who can't help due to their jobs, and I don't know what to do there - it's a structural economic issue more than anything.  But those parents seem to get shouted out by these "fuck, now I have to raise these kids too?" parents when I read the stories. There's one of the parents in the WSJ article like that - just shocked that 2 of her 4 kids under 10 required constant supervision to stay on task.  She acts like she had no idea that a kid that age needs supervision "from 9 to 2" - 7 whole straight hours each day.  She planned to spend that whole time teaching her 4-year-old "letters and numbers."  That part of the article just reads as sympathetic to the idea that "I had 4 children, now you assholes expect me to also take care of those 4 children? I can't do that!"

Hope you're not responsible for the math lessons in your house.

[justhookit 4,205]

7 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

What can is being kicked down the road? 

The same one that we kicked back in mid March and April. The problem is at the end when you pick it up and open it with no plan it blows up in your face. Again.

[Bevo 13,829]

3 minutes ago, royiv said:

Hope you're not responsible for the math lessons in your house.

Or telling time

[LebongJames 1,900]

20 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

What can is being kicked down the road? 

The potential cases. If you close today just reopen so that school can go back without any type of plan we will get another spike in August. 
 

Either get a real plan or let this burn through the population and see what the total number of deaths and hospitalizations end up at. 

Edited July 7, 2020 by LebongJames

[elfenix 34,661]

17 minutes ago, justhookit said:

The same one that we kicked back in mid March and April. The problem is at the end when you pick it up and open it with no plan it blows up in your face. Again.

that's a good analogy

[Trey3216 15,450]

36 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

What can is being kicked down the road? 

“There is no can.  Only do-Doo”

~Yogurt 

[irishtexan 11,692]

2 hours ago, drt said:

Immunity to other Coronaviruses commonly lasts between 8-15 months from what I've seen reported.  So it's probably more correct to say the assholes will probably have a while before they spread it again.

I do not believe there has been a confirmed case of reinfection, or of a reinfected person being contagious. From what I understand, a subsequent positive test post-recovery is thought to be a secondary shedding of the original virus. Let's continue to hold out hope that infection + recovery = immunity. Because if that doesn't happen,  our hospitals and entire healthcare systems are truly fucked. 

[Hate 20,232]

I do not believe there has been a confirmed case of reinfection, or of a reinfected person being contagious. From what I understand, a subsequent positive test post-recovery is thought to be a secondary shedding of the original virus. Let's continue to hold out hope that infection + recovery = immunity. Because if that doesn't happen,  our hospitals and entire healthcare systems are truly fucked. 

Yeah, not only fucked but really fucked until there is a vaccine.

[B00M 6,726]

25 minutes ago, LebongJames said:

Either get a real plan or let this burn through the population and see what the total number of deaths and hospitalizations end up at. 

Adler has made it clear he understands our reopening was flawed. It's also clear he understands that the point of the lockdown is to "reset" the local case load. Besides, we do not have the hospital capacity to let this "burn through" without a fuck load of needless death. You might as well get used to the idea of periodic resets because we're not eliminating covid, so it's the only option. 

 

[Trey3216 15,450]

8 minutes ago, Hate said:

Yeah, not only fucked but really fucked until there is a vaccine.

Vaccine for this is not going to be a magic bullet.  It’s going to be endemic going forward. 

[BradInATX 9,208]

4 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Vaccine for this is not going to be a magic bullet.  It’s going to be endemic going forward. 

Why do you say that?

[StruggleBus 3,922]

8 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Vaccine for this is not going to be a magic bullet.  It’s going to be endemic going forward. 

Maybe, maybe not. Vaccines will most likely have short term viability. 

[irishtexan 11,692]

13 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Vaccine for this is not going to be a magic bullet.  It’s going to be endemic going forward. 

No way to know this or say this with certainty.

[Bevo 13,829]

31 minutes ago, Hate said:

Yeah, not only fucked but really fucked until there is a vaccine.

There probably won't be much a vaccine if there is little lasting immunity. It would have to be administered annually (assuming immunity would last a year) and there would not be any seasonality to the virus so each year on the same date you would have to go back to the clinic to get a booster. I'm not worried about this possible scenario, though.

[SubliminalHorn 6,995]

1 hour ago, LebongJames said:

The potential cases. If you close today just reopen so that school can go back without any type of plan we will get another spike in August. 
 

Either get a real plan or let this burn through the population and see what the total number of deaths and hospitalizations end up at. 

Let it burn through the population and let’s see where deaths and hospitalizations end up at? Wtf that’s a terrible idea unless you’re ok with a lot of dead Americans just to play the “lets see what happens” game. 

Without robust testing and contact tracing, get used to rolling shut downs for the next year 

[LebongJames 1,900]

47 minutes ago, B00M said:

Adler has made it clear he understands our reopening was flawed. It's also clear he understands that the point of the lockdown is to "reset" the local case load. Besides, we do not have the hospital capacity to let this "burn through" without a fuck load of needless death. You might as well get used to the idea of periodic resets because we're not eliminating covid, so it's the only option. 

 

Periodic resets will fuck over the entire economy. Adler nor Abbott have shown they can competently lead during this time. A local reset is not going to work. So Austin shuts down but Williamson County and Hays stay open? The hospitals are the only thing worth shutting down for.
 

A local shutdown will just push people to do other things. People aren’t sheltering in place any more. If you shut down businesses you just create more issues. People will gravitate to each other, its dumb solution for a much larger problem.

I’m all for a real plan but I don’t trust them to actually role something like that out. Their leadership is inept at best.

Edited July 7, 2020 by LebongJames

[Bevo 13,829]

11 minutes ago, LebongJames said:

So Austin shuts down but Williamson County and Hays stay open? The hospitals are the only thing worth shutting down for.

That wold be awesome because half my subdivision is in Travis and half is in Williamson - Unfortunately, I'm in Travis. My Williamson neighbors would have their dog shit in my yard and all I could do is write sternly worded diatribes on Nextdoor.

[B00M 6,726]

15 minutes ago, LebongJames said:

The hospitals are the only thing worth shutting down for.

Why else would we shut down? 

[Trey3216 15,450]

49 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Why do you say that?

Because an influenza vaccine is not a magic bullet, and we have yet to come up with viable vaccines for SARS or MERS after more than a decade.  The magic bullet won’t be a magic bullet 

[BradInATX 9,208]

2 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Because an influenza vaccine is not a magic bullet, and we have yet to come up with viable vaccines for SARS or MERS after more than a decade.  The magic bullet won’t be a magic bullet 

 

I'm not necessarily saying you're wrong. It could end up endemic, but so far the vaccine trials are promising, and some of what you're saying is a bit off. Covid isn't the same type of virus as influenza, so you can't really use the flu as a comparison. And nobody is really trying for a SARS/MERS vaccine because they fizzled out on their own, so that doesn't mean much of anything.

There are no certainties but early results from vaccine trials are good. 

Edited July 7, 2020 by BradInATX