COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[Trey3216 15325]

2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

I'm not necessarily saying you're wrong. It could end up endemic, but so far the vaccine trials are promising, and some of what you're saying is a bit off. Covid isn't the same type of virus as influenza, so you can't really use the flu as a comparison. And nobody is really trying for a SARS/MERS vaccine because they fizzled out on their own, so that doesn't mean much of anything.

There are no certainties but early results from vaccine trials are good. 

I wasn’t necessarily comparing it to influenza, aside from its endemic nature and dartboard vaccine.   I apologize for the generalization.   Re: SARS/MERS, that is correct, but this looks like an RNA virus that is not going to totally flameout at this juncture.  
 

I could be wrong, and hope I am, but I don’t see a magic bullet vaccine for it either.   

[BradInATX 9208]

2 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I could be wrong, and hope I am

I think we all do.

[LebongJames 1785]

15 minutes ago, B00M said:

Why else would we shut down? 

Because our leadership is taking the easiest solution to a hard problem.

There needs to be a strong line. Without any stimulus for the people you can’t tell people not to make a living.

There are huge ramifications for putting people out of work for another month now and then for another month in October and then another 2 months in January and February.

 

 

Edited July 7, 2020 by LebongJames

[Anastasis 23395]

15 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I'm not necessarily saying you're wrong. It could end up endemic, but so far the vaccine trials are promising, and some of what you're saying is a bit off. Covid isn't the same type of virus as influenza, so you can't really use the flu as a comparison. And nobody is really trying for a SARS/MERS vaccine because they fizzled out on their own, so that doesn't mean much of anything.

There are no certainties but early results from vaccine trials are good. 

Yeah, perhaps it is just unfounded optimism, but I see no reason that a vaccination program should be able to get this under control.  The initial data from non-scrubs (basically non MRNA companies) has been pretty good, but it is early information.

But vax approval is just the first step.  We have to be thinking about what a vaccine roll out program looks like.  Production, distribution, how do we prioritize vaccination to high risk individuals, what kind of safety surveillance system do we have in place, what are the contingency plans if something goes wrong. Seems to me like the R&D component is the most well understood part of this whole thing.  All those other things still need to be articulated. 

I think that we need to come to grips with the fact that, given that effective vaccines come out of the development program, it will take many months, perhaps a year+ after successful trials to roll out. We aren't going to get back to anything approaching pre-COVID normal until 2022-2023 imo.   

Edited July 7, 2020 by Anastasis

[BradInATX 9208]

3 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Yeah, perhaps it is just unfounded optimism, but I see no reason that a vaccination program should be able to get this under control.  The initial data from non-scrubs (basically non MRNA companies) has been pretty good, but it is early information.

But vax approval is just the first step.  We have to be thinking about what a vaccine roll out program looks like.  Production, distribution, how do we prioritize vaccination to high risk individuals, what kind of safety surveillance system do we have in place, what are the contingency plans if something goes wrong. Seems to me like the R&D component is the most well understood part of this whole thing.  All those other things still need to be articulated. 

I think that we need to come to grips with the fact that, given that effective vaccines come out of the development program, it will take many months, perhaps a year+ after successful trials to roll out. We aren't going to get back to anything approaching pre-COVID normal until 2022-2023 imo.   

Unless one of the vaccines that they're already pre-producing a ton of hits.

[atomheartbevo 89430]

30 minutes ago, Bevo said:

That wold be awesome because half my subdivision is in Travis and half is in Williamson - Unfortunately, I'm in Travis. My Williamson neighbors would have their dog shit in my yard and all I could do is write sternly worded diatribes on Nextdoor.

You have one option - Karens don't like being filmed, so the threat of filming them should be enough to keep them off your yard.

[B00M 6280]

5 minutes ago, LebongJames said:

Because our leadership is taking the easiest solution to hard problem.

Austin is on the verge stage 5, which only allows essential businesses to be open, and it's based on 7 day average hospitilizations. I'm assuming the threshold was determined based on analysis of local hospitals. How is this the easiest solution? What other solutions are even available? 

[Captain Ron 12802]

46 minutes ago, LebongJames said:

Periodic resets will fuck over the entire economy. Adler nor Abbott have shown they can competently lead during this time. A local reset is not going to work. So Austin shuts down but Williamson County and Hays stay open? The hospitals are the only thing worth shutting down for.
 

A local shutdown will just push people to do other things. People aren’t sheltering in place any more. If you shut down businesses you just create more issues. People will gravitate to each other, its dumb solution for a much larger problem.

I’m all for a real plan but I don’t trust them to actually role something like that out. Their leadership is inept at best.

On the bold point - No doubt that period resets are really just asking for and setting up for failure. A slower controlled reopening is what the Northeast is trying because they have seen it work in Europe. The cities up here are very dense too, so it's easy to see how quick this can all get out of hand. It has to be a cautious re-opening with buy in from citizens to make sure they follow instructions on their part - masks are a must.

On the italics - I won't question you about Abbott, he did a poor job handling this at the state level. I would also argue that putting forth a mandate to take power away from smaller municipalities might just give Adler an incomplete on this. Looking from the outside, I don't know that he (along with many city and county leaders) had the power to really lead.

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89430]

16 minutes ago, LebongJames said:

Because our leadership is taking the easiest solution to a hard problem.

There needs to be a strong line. Without any stimulus for the people you can’t tell people not to make a living.

There are huge ramifications for putting people out of work for another month now and then for another month in October and then another 2 months in January and February.

There is one slight glimmer of hope - McConnell said he's open to the idea of people making $40,000 and under getting a check.  Not off-the-cuff - they want to keep the price of any future stimulus plans way down, and the percentages are something like over %35 making under $40,000 lost their jobs.  Very targeted stimulus checks/whatever.

Of course, that's going to really piss off a shit-ton of people who are making a little more than $40,000, but who are still impacted, but at least the door has been cracked.

If another stimulus happens, that could ease the fallout from a shutdown a bit.  

Without another stimulus, like I said, there will be no more shutdowns.  Too many businesses would go under, and the city/county/etc. resources for the unemployed would dry up quickly.

[Anastasis 23395]

4 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Unless one of the vaccines that they're already pre-producing a ton of hits.

Pre-approval production set-up has a substantial impact, but we still have to manage distribution, prioritization and safety surveillance.  And prioritization includes at individual level as well as worldwide prioritization.  I'll stick with return to normal 2022-2023 time frame and will be happy if I am wrong. 

NYT has a piece on this with some interesting infographics. 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/30/opinion/coronavirus-covid-vaccine.html

 

[achooloco 1066]

3 hours ago, LebongJames said:

Let’s shut everything down to kick the can further down the road.

Unless there is an actual plan closing temporarily even for 35 days is a horrible decision that will just prolong everything.

 

Agree but seems like a plan would include 1) naming metrics that don't overrun hospitals, 2) getting enough tests in order to make sure cities/counties are meeting those metrics, 3) instituting a tracing system to cover outbreaks, 4) get everyone to wear a mask once things open up, and 5) sticking to the metrics and halting re-opening if the metrics aren't met. Am I missing any essential parts?

We know TX shit the bed on 4, and especially 1 and 5;   2 seemed ok but somehow some but not all cities are starting to run out;  and 3...well not sure how that one is going. Is that the only one going well?

 

Edited July 7, 2020 by achooloco

[Captain Ron 12802]

Tuesday was always going to be a big day with small reporting Sunday and Monday.

10000+ cases today.

EDIT - almost 600 hospitalizations statewide too (after ~500 yesterday) - Yikes.

Edited July 7, 2020 by Captain Ron

[achooloco 1066]

2 minutes ago, Captain Ron said:

Tuesday was always going to be a big day with small reporting Sunday and Monday.

10000+ cases today.

EDIT - almost 600 hospitalizations statewide too (after ~500 yesterday) - Yikes.

i want to hate/sad face this post but not give you a negative vote. I am grateful for the info but can't like the post either. Fucking shit this is bad. Hope it turns around soon for y'all.

[htown85 159]

Not a good day for Houston...also not surprising given it's a Tuesday

 

https://twitter.com/HoustonHealth/status/1280602584982728705?s=20

[Surly Bevo 24696]

On the vaccine front and the spread part doesn't there reach a point when what is "novel" is no longer that....which is to say like other things between those who have had it and those who have been vaccinated that while it doesn't mean they can't get it again the body has "learned" somewhat how to fight it and in most (but certainly not all) cases that dials down the lethality of this thing to something we can accept like we do with so many other illnesses?  

Maybe I'm just hoping but at the beginning of all this part of the major issue laid out was because this was new our human race had no learned response and thus was susceptible to being overrun....you would think over the next year through continued spread and a vaccine immune response would learn something.

[LebongJames 1785]

49 minutes ago, B00M said:

Austin is on the verge stage 5, which only allows essential businesses to be open, and it's based on 7 day average hospitilizations. I'm assuming the threshold was determined based on analysis of local hospitals. How is this the easiest solution? What other solutions are even available? 

A real outlined plan: 

More protections for small businesses. Some help for low wage earners. I don’t want to be forced to do something with no follow up or forward thinking behind it.
 

Also what is this lockdown?

Just adding restaurants, gyms and movie theaters? 
 

It just seems like March all over again with more cases now. In summary I’ve lost faith

[J.R. Juniors Junior Jr. 1084]

31 minutes ago, htown85 said:

Not a good day for Houston...also not surprising given it's a Tuesday

 

https://twitter.com/HoustonHealth/status/1280602584982728705?s=20

•  

• Report post
•  
•  #238

Posted 37 minutes ago

48 minutes ago, Captain Ron said:

Tuesday was always going to be a big day with small reporting Sunday and Monday.

10000+ cases today.

EDIT - alm

So, Tuesday's the big day?  

Edited July 7, 2020 by J.R. Juniors Junior Jr.

[Message Board User 12389]

 

[Dbeasy 14969]

1 hour ago, Bevo said:

That wold be awesome because half my subdivision is in Travis and half is in Williamson - Unfortunately, I'm in Travis. My Williamson neighbors would have their dog shit in my yard and all I could do is write sternly worded diatribes on Nextdoor.

Wait, half my subdivision is in Travis and half in Williamson.  Uh oh.  You might be my neighbor.  And there's a decent chance I insulted you on here at some point, because I've probably iinsulted everyone on here at some point, especially when I've been drinking.  This is going to make the "get to know your neighbor night" very ackward.

[dcar00 14035]

11 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Wait, half my subdivision is in Travis and half in Williamson.  Uh oh.  You might be my neighbor.  And there's a decent chance I insulted you on here at some point, because I've probably iinsulted everyone on here at some point, especially when I've been drinking.  This is going to make the "get to know your neighbor night" very ackward.

[justhookit 4180]

Yikes. At the beach. Corpus Nueces county numbers today are awful

[Bevo 13527]

24 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Wait, half my subdivision is in Travis and half in Williamson.  Uh oh.  You might be my neighbor.  And there's a decent chance I insulted you on here at some point, because I've probably iinsulted everyone on here at some point, especially when I've been drinking.  This is going to make the "get to know your neighbor night" very ackward.

It's alright. All my neighbors already hate me. I built a pool last year and we have little separation between adjacent homes. And we hit solid rock after about 1 ft of digging. And we have a street full of Karens. Luckily, I have a terrible long-term memory. It is like the reverse of 50 First Dates. My wife has to keep reminding me of why I married her.

Edited July 7, 2020 by Bevo

[Bill Brasky 1439]

the county here has been loading up the cases on Mondays and/or Tuesdays from the  weekend, so of course the local news jumps all over the headlines to cause more panic.  "ZOMG record number of cases!!!!!" when the rolling average has been about the same for almost 2 weeks now.   that is also making the assumption that the numbers they are reporting are legit to begin with.  

Example by day:   51, 6, 8, 45, 128 (omg everyone panic!!!!), 79, 86, 43, 21, 18, 64, 108 (omg everyone panic again!!!!!!) 

 

[dcar00 14035]

2 minutes ago, Bill Brasky said:

the county here has been loading up the cases on Mondays and/or Tuesdays from the  weekend, so of course the local news jumps all over the headlines to cause more panic.  "ZOMG record number of cases!!!!!" when the rolling average has been about the same for almost 2 weeks now.   that is also making the assumption that the numbers they are reporting are legit to begin with.  

Example by day:   51, 6, 8, 45, 128 (omg everyone panic!!!!), 79, 86, 43, 21, 18, 64, 108 (omg everyone panic again!!!!!!) 

 

just wait until the deaths come like what happened in NY/NJ/Mass.

[Dbeasy 14969]

It's alright. All my neighbors already hate me. I built a pool last year and we have little separation between adjacent homes. And we hit solid rock after about 1 ft of digging. And we have a street full of Karens. Luckily, I have a terrible long-term memory. It is like the reverse of 50 First Dates. My wife has to keep reminding me of why I married her.

Holy crap you just described my street

[Austinvines 309]

Austin metro just hit stage five (7-day moving avg of 70+ admits per day).

This is earlier than expected. No idea what Adler is going to do but imagine he won’t take a wait and see approach.

[Royalfan5 2348]

My lady friend just informed me that her college track teammate that went to New York from KC during their surge is shipping down to Austin today to work in a hospital.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

My lady friend just informed me that her college track teammate that went to New York from KC during their surge is shipping down to Austin today to work in a hospital.

Is she hot?

[Royalfan5 2348]

Just now, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Is she hot?

She was a thrower, so take that as you will

[ChiTownDoc 21101]

1 hour ago, Surly Bevo said:

On the vaccine front and the spread part doesn't there reach a point when what is "novel" is no longer that....which is to say like other things between those who have had it and those who have been vaccinated that while it doesn't mean they can't get it again the body has "learned" somewhat how to fight it and in most (but certainly not all) cases that dials down the lethality of this thing to something we can accept like we do with so many other illnesses?  

Maybe I'm just hoping but at the beginning of all this part of the major issue laid out was because this was new our human race had no learned response and thus was susceptible to being overrun....you would think over the next year through continued spread and a vaccine immune response would learn something.

Yes, that should be the direction things go but there's no guarantee.  It's also why the vast majority of experts are pretty sure you're not getting this again in a short time period...after 8-12 months maybe the virus has changed enough to reinfect but even then you'd think the body in somebody who isn't immunocompromised would have an easier time fighting it off.  They're testing several nursing homes every single week - every person.  If any more than 1-2% of people were going to get it again it would be that population showing it as they're the oldest/most susceptible.  And they're not seeing buildings ravaged multiple times, or even 10% of patients getting it twice.  And these patients have much better testing (now) than some of what we see out in the community with these kits. 

[B00M 6280]

20 minutes ago, Royalfan5 said:

My lady friend just informed me that her college track teammate that went to New York from KC during their surge is shipping down to Austin today to work in a hospital.

Tell her thank you from the surly collective.

[LebongJames 1785]

O area is 11 county area surrounding Travis


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[atomheartbevo 89430]

Fuck

https://www.kxan.com/investigations/austin-public-health-uncounted-covid-19-patients-in-hospitals-could-trigger-more-restrictions/

Quote

Austin’s top doctor said there have been more COVID-19 patients in local hospitals than what the city has reported, and the difference brings our area into a hospital capacity range that could trigger more restrictions on businesses and other activity. 

People who tested positive for COVID-19 after they were already in a hospital were not included in data Austin Public Health was reporting in its staging dashboard.

Quote

“Previous data sets did not retroactively adjust new hospital admissions for patients who were admitted to the hospital but did not receive a positive COVID-19 test result until after their initial admission date,” said APH in a statement.

Quote

The data discrepancies were acknowledged by Austin-Travis County Interim Health Authority Dr. Mark Escott on Tuesday.

“We’re still doing a little work on this to determine if the numbers are accurate, and we expect to update this on the dashboard,” Escott told Travis County Commissioners.

Quote

As of Monday evening, the 7-day moving average for hospitalizations was just above 64. But the uncounted admissions represented 10 admissions a day.

By the end of the day, the 7-day moving average had grown to just under 75.

Quote

However, another important factor depends how fast our area gets to this range. Just because the 7-day average gets over 70, doesn’t mean Stage 5 will be triggered.

If our area does move into Stage 5, local leaders may consider more restrictions.

Quote

The largest hospitals in our area have declined to provide KXAN with admission and occupied bed and ICU bed numbers, at the hospital level.

Austin Public Health said the hospital patient data discrepancies dated back to June 22.

Austin is gonna Austin

Quote

That’s around the time Austin Mayor Steve Adler said Austin Public Health was juggling multiple sets of data and a new reporting process.

“We changed people and processes that day,” said Adler. “Everybody is working really hard to make sure the decision makers and public have all the data they need.”

Austin Public Health says it is currently looking at a variety of models, including testing a doubling of cases, hospitalizations, and ICU patients, to make a final determination of the stage later this week.

 

Edited July 8, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[BradInATX 9208]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Fuck

https://www.kxan.com/investigations/austin-public-health-uncounted-covid-19-patients-in-hospitals-could-trigger-more-restrictions/

Austin is gonna Austin

 

Maddening. I don't want to veer us off into another data nerd rant that only @Anastasis and I find interesting, but good lord. How did nobody consider that they were missing patients that tested positive after admission until four months into this thing?

Austinites govern how we drive. Like a bunch of bimbos/mimbos.

[SHOOTER12 8789]

On 7/5/2020 at 8:45 PM, Sawbonz said:

I am just a dumb bone doctor, but I remember a couple of things about the lungs I was taught in training by an internist I greatly respected. The first is he believed humans have enough lung capacity to live 120 years, so it really takes a huge insult to compromise us from a lung standpoint. The second thing is more objective: human performance is limited by cardiac output not lung capacity, Which IMO again points to less worry for long-term pulmonary effects unless there is underlying lung disease such as asthma or COPD. Personally, I worry more about renal  or cardiovascular effects from the virus; thankfully, they seem to be much more rare  than lung issues

Brother, I've got a lot of dumb bones that need help, do you have a no down payment plan?

[SHOOTER12 8789]

On 7/6/2020 at 10:10 AM, atomheartbevo said:

Or post pics - half of Surly might be willing to drive her up the ass and quarantine with her for two weeks.

FTFY...

[Anastasis 23395]

23 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Fuck

https://www.kxan.com/investigations/austin-public-health-uncounted-covid-19-patients-in-hospitals-could-trigger-more-restrictions/

Austin is gonna Austin

 

People who tested positive for COVID-19 after they were already in a hospital were not included in data Austin Public Health was reporting in its staging dashboard.

 

You have to be shitting me. 

[troph 24562]

People who tested positive for COVID-19 after they were already in a hospital were not included in data Austin Public Health was reporting in its staging dashboard.
 
You have to be shitting me. 

That *is* a less common symptom.

[GRHorn 105]

Some interesting SA data here. If you squint hard enough you see hospitalizations starting to level off. Hopefully icu and vent patients to follow. 

 

[NorthLoop 14092]

So more nurses coming to Austin? It's your time to shine, fellas.

[Shut up Lou Holtz 2006]

2 hours ago, Royalfan5 said:

She was a thrower, so take that as you will

Vic to the white courtesy phone 

[Trey3216 15325]

20 minutes ago, Shut up Lou Holtz said:

NowThis to the white courtesy phone 

FIFY

[Pig Bellmont 8691]

I guess dying in the convention center would be the second worst thing to happen to me there

[atomheartbevo 89430]

3 hours ago, BradInATX said:

Maddening. I don't want to veer us off into another data nerd rant that only @Anastasis and I find interesting, but good lord. How did nobody consider that they were missing patients that tested positive after admission until four months into this thing?

Austinites govern how we drive. Like a bunch of bimbos/mimbos.

2 hours ago, Anastasis said:

People who tested positive for COVID-19 after they were already in a hospital were not included in data Austin Public Health was reporting in its staging dashboard.

You have to be shitting me. 

It's Austin, you act as though we are a city known for a lot of high-tech companies that deal in vast quantities of data, along with a world-class university that has a well-funded and respected comp sci department, or that there is a web developer lurking right behind every indie musician that is *this close* to making it big.

Oh.

 

[atomheartbevo 89430]

1 minute ago, Pig Bellmont said:

I guess dying in the convention center would be the second worst thing to happen to me there

That's pretty surprising - I got the impression that they were not wanting to use the convention center.

 

[BradInATX 9208]

Wonder how they're planning to staff that. Regular rotation nurses on off days?

[InkaUtexas 25517]

22 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Wonder how they're planning to staff that. Regular rotation nurses on off days?

DOD and recruiting firms. Stand by teams to float in and out. You cannot pull from existing health care personnel. 

[Zepol87 9171]

43 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Wonder how they're planning to staff that. Regular rotation nurses on off days?

Buddy works at JPS in FW and said they have started getting calls similar to when NYC was going through their outbreak for SA and the Valley. Nothing yet for Austin but has to be happening soon. He has said the money offered has been nowhere near as much as NYC but alot of the nurses he is with have been talking about taking the offers. 

[Js1 85109]

47 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Wonder how they're planning to staff that. Regular rotation nurses on off days?

Know an ICU nurse headed to Austin from Denver for this 

[Hate 20103]

Buddy works at JPS in FW and said they have started getting calls similar to when NYC was going through their outbreak for SA and the Valley. Nothing yet for Austin but has to be happening soon. He has said the money offered has been nowhere near as much as NYC but alot of the nurses he is with have been talking about taking the offers. 

The problem is that they won’t go home when this is over.