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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

justhookit

By justhookit
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whithou
whithou

It has been a disheartening journey and it is only starting. I did not realize how there really is no definitive treatment for the illness until we got COVID patients. When they first come on our unit

South Austin
South Austin

He didn't get COVID.  He just ran out of immunity.

safe sex
safe sex

I cannot stress this enough for anyone who lives in Austin (although this really applies to pretty much everywhere at this point) BE SAFE. What this means is don't get on your motorcycles. D

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90550

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Sounds like the big meeting scheduled for tomorrow was moved to this afternoon.  Or it maybe a different meeting.  Some big meeting with UT’s modeling folks.  

They are talking to the military about personnel if people end up at the convention center.  

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drt

drt 645

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Probably better for the medical thread, but it's not the first corticosteroid to be used for treatment, dexamethasone being another one.  And somehow I don't think an anti-inflammatory is going to be the thing that cures this virus.  It's just another tool that works for some patients better than others.

Plus, any doc that thinks he's found a self described "silver bullet" after one patient probably would be practicing medicine in the Permian Basin.

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Pig Bellmont

Pig Bellmont 8867

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26 minutes ago, huge said:

What do we make of this?

https://www.cbs7.com/2020/07/08/west-texas-doctor-goes-viral-with-claim-of-covid-cure/

 

Did I miss this discussion?

I’m sure that one person achieved negative tests, but there’s no way an inhaled steroid is the cure. Think about it- the entire medical and scientific world is desperate to produce a cure, and some asshole in Midland who saw some lady recover, regardless of whatever he prescribed, thinks *he* did it?

The cynic in me believes he’s got a kickback scheme going with a sales rep and he’s trying to manipulate the market. Occam’s Razor says he’s just a moron

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BTW

BTW 370

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I live in Midland so this hits, literally, close to home.

I don’t know this guy, but he’s definitely been making the rounds talking about ‘his’ treatment. In other interviews he’s given, (As you can imagine there’s a lot of buzz about him in these parts) he mentioned treating dozens of patients with the nebulizer and steroid cocktail. If I understand correctly, his claim is none of his patients have died or gone on a ventilator.

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JBJ

JBJ 3780

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As promised.

Time-wise, the chart ends after Phase 3 implementation, at the approach of widespread public knowledge of the surge, and before any reopening rollback or additional restrictions. 

The crazy surge is over, but cases are still growing (obviously).  Rt<1 (number of cases stop growing) below 0.10.

Even after factoring lagtime, death rate isn't holding pace.  Which may be largely due to the demographics of the surge.

Capture.PNG

Edited by JBJ
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dcar00

dcar00 14907

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14 minutes ago, JBJ said:

As promised.

Time-wise, the chart ends after Phase 3 implementation, at the approach of widespread public knowledge of the surge, and before any reopening rollback or additional restrictions. 

The crazy surge is over, but cases are still growing (obviously).  Rt<1 (number of cases stop growing) below 0.10.

Even after factoring lagtime, death rate isn't holding pace.  Which may be largely due to the demographics of the surge.

Capture.PNG

your label needs to read "protests/muh rights/MDBBQ"

Edited by dcar00
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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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15 minutes ago, JBJ said:

As promised.

Time-wise, the chart ends after Phase 3 implementation, at the approach of widespread public knowledge of the surge, and before any reopening rollback or additional restrictions. 

The crazy surge is over, but cases are still growing (obviously).  Rt<1 (number of cases stop growing) below 0.10.

Even after factoring lagtime, death rate isn't holding pace.  Which may be largely due to the demographics of the surge.

Capture.PNG

 

- 5-day and 10-day trend of what? what are your Y axes representing? Are we looking at cases? Cases as a percentage of population? Positive test percentage? 

You believe the surge is over in Texas when cases and hospitalizations are still dramatically increasing?
 

Bruh.

Edited by BradInATX
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JBJ

JBJ 3780

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

- 5-day and 10-day trend of what? what are your Y axes representing? Are we looking at cases? Cases as a percentage of population? Positive test percentage? 

You believe the surge is over in Texas when cases and hospitalizations are still dramatically increasing?

Transmission rate.

I guess this depends on what you define as surge.  Cases are still growing; they aren't growing at a pace where they double every 10 days.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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2 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Transmission rate.

I guess this depends on what you define as surge.  Cases are still growing; they aren't growing at a pace where they double every 10 days.

 

Fair enough. Is that Texas or the country? (you need to label your charts more descriptively)

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11669

Posted
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30 minutes ago, JBJ said:

As promised.

Time-wise, the chart ends after Phase 3 implementation, at the approach of widespread public knowledge of the surge, and before any reopening rollback or additional restrictions. 

The crazy surge is over, but cases are still growing (obviously).  Rt<1 (number of cases stop growing) below 0.10.

Even after factoring lagtime, death rate isn't holding pace.  Which may be largely due to the demographics of the surge.

Capture.PNG

is left Y R0?  What is the right Y axis?

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90550

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34 minutes ago, JBJ said:

The crazy surge is over, but cases are still growing (obviously).  Rt<1 (number of cases stop growing) below 0.10.

Once Austin gets their thousands of test results back (that they are still waiting on), they will be retroactively updating their charts, so the surge may not be over yet.  Apparently the 1-2 week wait on a lot of tests is very real.

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JBJ

JBJ 3780

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

Fair enough. Is that Texas or the country? (you need to label your charts more descriptively)

Noted.  Texas only. 

I've posted descriptions in previous posts, but I know not everyone has been closely following these threads since March. 

10 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

is left Y R0?  What is the right Y axis?

It's closely related.  If you look at the chart in terms of R0 going up and down, while ignoring the actual values (0.09 ~ R0=1), you aren't wrong.

The right axis is IFR. 

Community resistance is plotted arbitrarily.

Edited by JBJ
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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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It's closely related.  If you look at the chart in terms of R0, while ignoring the actual values (0.09 ~ R0=1), you are doing it correctly.

So did you calculate R0 from new cases? That's pretty cool. I think there's some issue with the case numbers being limited by testing which might throw you a monkey wrench. But I am glad to see a general downward trend for R0. Hopefully it means we're going to see flattening soon.
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JBJ

JBJ 3780

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5 minutes ago, BradInATX said:


So did you calculate R0 from new cases? That's pretty cool. I think there's some issue with the case numbers being limited by testing which might throw you a monkey wrench. But I am glad to see a general downward trend for R0. Hopefully it means we're going to see flattening soon.

Yeah.  I don't change the rate of unreported cases.  I don't really have anything to go off of to make an accurate guess, but it's a safe bet that is does increase as testing lines grow.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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Yeah.  I don't change the rate of unreported cases.  I don't really have anything to go off of to make an accurate guess, but it's a safe bet that is does increase as testing lines grow.
Right on and yeah obviously nothing you can do about the data you get. Now that I understand it, it's a pretty slick analysis. Can you PM me your calc field? I want to look at some individual cities. Not picking a "what caused it" fight, scout's honor. I just want to see if there's some reason for optimism amongst some other personal reasons
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DaysOff

DaysOff 8157

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Posted
I’m sure that one person achieved negative tests, but there’s no way an inhaled steroid is the cure. Think about it- the entire medical and scientific world is desperate to produce a cure, and some asshole in Midland who saw some lady recover, regardless of whatever he prescribed, thinks *he* did it?
The cynic in me believes he’s got a kickback scheme going with a sales rep and he’s trying to manipulate the market. Occam’s Razor says he’s just a moron
There were all sorts of "cures" like this touted during the 1918 influenza pandemic.
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dcar00

dcar00 14907

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13 minutes ago, DaysOff said:
2 hours ago, Pig Bellmont said:
I’m sure that one person achieved negative tests, but there’s no way an inhaled steroid is the cure. Think about it- the entire medical and scientific world is desperate to produce a cure, and some asshole in Midland who saw some lady recover, regardless of whatever he prescribed, thinks *he* did it?
The cynic in me believes he’s got a kickback scheme going with a sales rep and he’s trying to manipulate the market. Occam’s Razor says he’s just a moron

There were all sorts of "cures" like this touted during the 1918 influenza pandemic.

uh yeah but they were topical.  also, I'm gonna need some confirmation from Armybrat on your claim here.

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UT_OB1

UT_OB1 2262

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37 minutes ago, BradInATX said:
40 minutes ago, JBJ said:
Yeah.  I don't change the rate of unreported cases.  I don't really have anything to go off of to make an accurate guess, but it's a safe bet that is does increase as testing lines grow.

Right on and yeah obviously nothing you can do about the data you get. Now that I understand it, it's a pretty slick analysis. Can you PM me your calc field? I want to look at some individual cities. Not picking a "what caused it" fight, scout's honor. I just want to see if there's some reason for optimism amongst some other personal reasons

I'd be interested in the city by city data, and it doesn't need to be a fight.  Should be clear that even within the state there are going to be vastly different conditions.  I think it would also be interesting to look at the phase X re-openings and see if it is possible pull out some effect of Y% of the population being considered essential / or not having the ability to work from home.  HUGE generalization coming up, but Houston for instance has a large percentage of jobs that require the worker force to be at the plant, and most of these jobs didn't shut down.  Austin on the other hand has a large percent of the hipsters that can do their jobs from laptops at home.  You would think you would be able to pull out an effect from that if you looked at enough cities.    

Edited by UT_OB1
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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

I'd be interested in the city by city data, and it doesn't need to be a fight.  Should be clear that even within the state there are going to be vastly different conditions.  I think it would also be interesting to look at the phase X re-openings and see if it is possible pull out some effect of Y% of the population being considered essential / or not having the ability to work from home.  HUGE generalization coming up, but Houston for instance has a large percentage of jobs that require the worker force to be at the plant, and most of these jobs didn't shut down.  Austin on the other hand has a large percent of the hipsters that can do their jobs from laptops at home.  You would think you would be able to pull out an effect from that if you looked at enough cities.    

 

Exactly. That's the type of stuff that I want to mess around with on the couch with an old fashioned. We're also house shopping, so I'm interested in which places seem to be more volatile - though this will be a really small piece of our decision obviously. 

I also want to run a similar analysis with hospitalizations (as a better proxy than cases) for the different trauma service areas to see where we might see some slowdown and where we're screwed. 

And I want to see if our beach trip in late July is going to be a lost cause.

Edited by BradInATX
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NoName

NoName 17107

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Posted
2 hours ago, BTW said:

I live in Midland so this hits, literally, close to home.

I don’t know this guy, but he’s definitely been making the rounds talking about ‘his’ treatment. In other interviews he’s given, (As you can imagine there’s a lot of buzz about him in these parts) he mentioned treating dozens of patients with the nebulizer and steroid cocktail. If I understand correctly, his claim is none of his patients have died or gone on a ventilator.

the question becomes what is that N? if its like 12 patients who gives a damn

honestly, it doesn't really matter. he is a family med doc - not a hospitalist, not working in a hospital just a general practitioner i assume who is seeing people out of his clinic

so he isn't seeing really sick patients - glad his "treatment" hasn't killed anyone but come on. sounds like this dude: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/technology/doctor-zelenko-coronavirus-drugs.html

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JBJ

JBJ 3780

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Posted (edited)

The difference between transmission rate and R0:

R0 is the number of cases caused by a single case.  100 people infect 200 people over the entire course of their illness is R0=2.  Time doesn't really matter.  Whether this happens over 5 days or a month is the same.

Transmission cares less about the total number you infect but more about how often.  100 people infect 15 people each day is B=0.15.

So if the time frame between when X gets infected and passes it to Y(s) doesn't change they are 1:1 with each other and B=R/t with t being the days between X and Y(s) contracting the virus. (This is an overt simplification.)

Both also ignore community resistance.  R0 is still 2 at 190 cases with 10 resisted.  B is still 0.15 at 13 cases with 2 resisted.

Edited by JBJ
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Anastasis

Anastasis 23700

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Posted
3 hours ago, BradInATX said:
3 hours ago, JBJ said:
Yeah.  I don't change the rate of unreported cases.  I don't really have anything to go off of to make an accurate guess, but it's a safe bet that is does increase as testing lines grow.

Right on and yeah obviously nothing you can do about the data you get. Now that I understand it, it's a pretty slick analysis. Can you PM me your calc field? I want to look at some individual cities. Not picking a "what caused it" fight, scout's honor. I just want to see if there's some reason for optimism amongst some other personal reasons

Nice to see you acting like less of a twat than last week on this topic. :)  there’s hope for all of us. 

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justhookit

justhookit 4205

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Posted (edited)
On 7/7/2020 at 5:30 PM, justhookit said:

Yikes. At the beach. Corpus Nueces county numbers today are awful

And even worse again today. New cases from 388 to 445 (both records).

Hospitalizations from 285 to 369 (largest single day increase). 

ICU 88 to 103.

New deaths 8, tying yesterday’s record of 8. We’ve had 27 deaths  so far in July. Prior to July we had 8 total.

as of yesterday they had 3000 people on the waiting lists for county tests. Right now they are able to do about 200 a day.

 

Edited by justhookit
338 should have been 388.
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