COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[justhookit 4205]

10 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I can't wait to hear how this gets explained by some of you science fair all-stars.  

They’ve been pretty much absent from this thread from the get-go. 

[BradInATX 9208]

Nice to see you acting like less of a twat than last week on this topic.   there’s hope for all of us. 

.

[BradInATX 9208]

But no, I respect good work and it's a cool piece of info that adds to the thread

[MNLonghornFUKM 8964]

Record bad day for Travis County: 753
 
https://www.traviscountytx.gov/news/2020/1945-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-information

Yikes. Hopefully some holiday weekend lag since the previous few were so low

[Message Board User 12405]

Amen Keisha.  Amen.

<------------------------------- Tested June 29 and I still haven't received results.

[UT_OB1 2262]

16 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

Amen Keisha.  Amen.

<------------------------------- Tested June 29 and I still haven't received results.

You need to move to Houston. Got my test back today. I and 2 of my coworkers were negative via nasal swab test we took Monday afternoon. One of the other 2 also took the rapid blood prick and was negative on that as well.  

[Pig Bellmont 8867]

Yikes

[Chewbacca 7827]

People not willing to meet together indoors In Houston later this month.  Week sauce if you ask me.  Bullshit.  

Yeah, we are running into a lot of that now, but can you blame them? I don't.

[bschoolprof 6339]

So with significant delays in getting test results, many (most?) “new cases” reported today on dashboards are really from 1-2 weeks ago, right?

[Message Board User 12405]

 

[Skipper 6406]

2 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

So with significant delays in getting test results, many (most?) “new cases” reported today on dashboards are really from 1-2 weeks ago, right?

Agreed.  It seems like probably around an average 7 day look back (for confirmed hospitalization data as well).

[MNLonghornFUKM 8964]

Amen Keisha.  Amen.

Wait.. was she or was she not in self quarantine? That tweet is worded awkwardly. The whole premises of everything here is to stay home especially if you live with a positive.

[EE2B 1569]

Amen Keisha.  Amen.

Maybe I’m misunderstanding what she’s saying, but why didn’t the one person who was tested quarantine themselves until they got their results? That’s seems like it may have potentially kept the other two from getting it.

Hell I spent 8 days away from my family at the beginning of this bullshit because we thought someone I had direct contact with had Covid-19. It took that long for him to get his test results so I lived in the guesthouse (1st World problems).

Blaming all three infections on the speed of the test results seems a bit of a stretch.

[JBJ 3780]

21 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

You need to move to Houston. Got my test back today. I and 2 of my coworkers were negative via nasal swab test we took Monday afternoon. One of the other 2 also took the rapid blood prick and was negative on that as well.  

Same for Dallas.  Had about 30 tested yesterday with results today.

Edited July 9, 2020 by JBJ

[Message Board User 12405]

2 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Wait.. was she or was she not in self quarantine? That tweet is worded awkwardly. The whole premises of everything here is to stay home especially if you live with a positive.

I think her point was that it is ridiculous to ask anyone to self-quarantine (especially if they are without symptoms) for over a week while awaiting test results.  And she is right...unless you believe that waiting covid results for 7+ days is perfectly reasonable.  It's also quite common for mayors and other VIPs to be tested frequently, so this may have been a "proactive" test.

Shit, was watching the news tonight and one guy was interviewed who said it took 27 days to get his results.  Is he expected to quarantine for that long?

Stories abound across the country with ridiculous wait times -

 

[Deej 77676]

28 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

You need to move to Houston. Got my test back today. I and 2 of my coworkers were negative via nasal swab test we took Monday afternoon. One of the other 2 also took the rapid blood prick and was negative on that as well.  

Dibs on “Blood Prick” as a band name.

[Skipper 6406]

19 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Same for Dallas.  Had about 30 tested yesterday with results today.

Where was this?  Probably a good idea to find best options just in case.   The public testing here appears to be an absolute shit show.

[Neonmoon 38130]

SIAP. Sisters boyfriend cousin knows someone at 31 flavors and said Abbot has just given Adler the green light to shut Austin down again. Should be announced within a day or two 

[Pig Bellmont 8867]

5 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

SIAP. Sisters boyfriend cousin knows someone at 31 flavors and said Abbot has just given Adler the green light to shut Austin down again. Should be announced within a day or two 

Real talk - hopefully it’s not too late. Nobody should have to die in the convention center 

[JBJ 3780]

19 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Where was this?  Probably a good idea to find best options just in case.   The public testing here appears to be an absolute shit show.

I'll ask their Manager or the HR Manager tomorrow.  Probably just a CareNow with how we do things.

[Anastasis 23702]

[Incredulity 11861]

I think we get the point

[Anastasis 23702]

TC dashboard 06/08/2020 vs. 07/08/2020.

Edited July 9, 2020 by Anastasis

[justhookit 4205]

Nueces is such a mess. 82% of the hospitalizations we’ve had since this started are in the hospital right now.

this below is wrong, because I’ve watched the data daily, but it’s still funny they are putting the info out. We aren’t actually over a 50% positive result rate, but I’m pretty sure we are nearing 40.

https://www.cctexas.com/coronavirus

SEVEN DAY TOTALS	NUMBER
Testing Totals (last 7 Days)	3985
Average Daily Tests (7-day average)	569
Positive Cases	2161

Worst part of that is there is no way to know exactly what the backlog is doing to the numbers, and no way to tell how many results are actually 7-10 days old. It’s doubtful our trends are getting better yet but it’s certainly possible it’s worse than it looks.

for those of you that like charts 

https://www.cctexas.com/sites/default/files/07082020-Public-Health-Briefing.pdf

Edited July 9, 2020 by justhookit

[Anastasis 23702]

A few things jump out to me in above.  Age distribution of cases, strong shift to younger age range. Race and ethnicity fairly steady, shift appears to be driven by increased "unknown". Hospitalized numbers are not fucking good at all. Geographic distribution appears more concentrated. Symptom onset information is very lagged as it comes from patient interviews, but we see a spike corresponding in the 3-5 day window after you know what.  That spike will probably lessen as all the new cases are traced out. I fucking hope when I pull a cap on 08/08/2020 it looks a lot better.  Football season lol. 

[Message Board User 12405]

 

[gmr548 16681]

2 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

We've come full circle. This is what it was like in March into early April. I'd met the CDC criteria for recovery for several days before receiving my test result (negative). Fortunately I have a job where I can work from home so it didn't put me in a tough spot, but many aren't so lucky. Or, alternatively, many are too stupid/selfish to quarantine for more than a day or two while waiting for a result.

[BradInATX 9208]

25 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

A few things jump out to me in above.  Age distribution of cases, strong shift to younger age range. Race and ethnicity fairly steady, shift appears to be driven by increased "unknown". Hospitalized numbers are not fucking good at all. Geographic distribution appears more concentrated. Symptom onset information is very lagged as it comes from patient interviews, but we see a spike corresponding in the 3-5 day window after you know what.  That spike will probably lessen as all the new cases are traced out. I fucking hope when I pull a cap on 08/08/2020 it looks a lot better.  Football season lol. 

The 7-day hospitalization average in Austin MSA is actually flattening. Not that we're okay to just hang around 75 new admits per day, but going from sharp upward spike to flat is moving in the right direction.

 

First thing resembling good news in awhile. But we need it to keep bending until it's pointing down.

 

Edited July 9, 2020 by BradInATX

[Anastasis 23702]

7 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

The 7-day hospitalization average in Austin MSA is actually flattening. Not that we're okay to just hang around 75 new admits per day, but going from sharp upward spike to flat is moving in the right direction.

 

First thing resembling good news in awhile. But we need it to keep bending until it's pointing down.

 

This suggests to me that length of stay appears to be increasing.  Rate of new admissions flattening, but total census still rising, which may be a good thing. Maybe @trauma babe or another front line health care professional can provide their insight. Better to be in a bed than dead, or something. At least until we run out of beds. 

This should be concerning to all of us though.  This is the age distribution for (newly?) hospitalized pts week ending 07/05.

 

Edited July 9, 2020 by Anastasis

[justhookit 4205]

Yeah y’all made me go back and look. Our hospitalizations only jumped from 285 to 302. Rest of the numbers are correct though.

[BradInATX 9208]

7 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

This suggests to me that length of stay appears to be increasing.  Rate of new admissions flattening, but total census still rising, which may be a good thing. Maybe @trauma babe or another front line health care professional can provide their insight. Better to be in a bed than dead, or something. At least until we run out of beds. 

This should be concerning to all of us though.  This is the age distribution for (newly?) hospitalized pts week ending 07/05.

 

 

We still have beds, for now.

Also keep in mind to your point, and you may have already considered this, that fewer people dying could actually bump up the average stay. Especially if we still have beds to spare (we do) and they're not rushing anyone out the door. Not sure how statistically significant it would be, but it's something.

Edited July 9, 2020 by BradInATX

[Anastasis 23702]

1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

Also keep in mind to your point, and you may have already considered this, that fewer people dying could actually bump up the average stay.

Yep, agreed. Shifts in the case mix (age, especially).  Maybe better treatment with some of the steroid data guiding treatment?  Hard to tell from the data alone, really need boots on the ground insights to flesh it out.  

[DDD Dad 14572]

Dallas Channel 5 reported tonight that one of today’s deaths was in their 20’s and another in their 40’s. Neither had any underlying conditions.

Let’s be careful out there.

[atomheartbevo 90550]

3 hours ago, bschoolprof said:

So with significant delays in getting test results, many (most?) “new cases” reported today on dashboards are really from 1-2 weeks ago, right?

During this mornings presser, if I heard them right, the 2,000 or so tests that they were still waiting for results on, would be factored into the dashboard retroactively.  Again, may have heard it wrong since I had two noisy kids plus fucking Caillou on TV in the background, but it sounded like if somebody was tested a week ago and the test came back positive, it would be added to the day the test was done, not when the result was received.

[atomheartbevo 90550]

2 hours ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Real talk - hopefully it’s not too late. Nobody should have to die in the convention center 

Just Dennis Johnson, and the dreams of dozens of Austin Toros.

[Huckleberry 34407]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

During this mornings presser, if I heard them right, the 2,000 or so tests that they were still waiting for results on, would be factored into the dashboard retroactively.  Again, may have heard it wrong since I had two noisy kids plus fucking Caillou on TV in the background, but it sounded like if somebody was tested a week ago and the test came back positive, it would be added to the day the test was done, not when the result was received.

If you let your kids watch Caillou that's your fault. Come on, man. 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8964]

The 7-day hospitalization average in Austin MSA is actually flattening. Not that we're okay to just hang around 75 new admits per day, but going from sharp upward spike to flat is moving in the right direction.

 
First thing resembling good news in awhile. But we need it to keep bending until it's pointing down.
 

Not what south Austin’s mom wants to hear

[elfenix 34661]

Houston is having a spike in people dying at home:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/coronavirus-surges-houston-confronts-its-hidden-toll-people-dying-home-n1233151

[Guest]

48 minutes ago, elfenix said:

Houston is having a spike in people dying at home:

 

Acevedo still works there...

[scottsins 2040]

Maybe I’m misunderstanding what she’s saying, but why didn’t the one person who was tested quarantine themselves until they got their results? That’s seems like it may have potentially kept the other two from getting it.

Hell I spent 8 days away from my family at the beginning of this bullshit because we thought someone I had direct contact with had Covid-19. It took that long for him to get his test results so I lived in the guesthouse (1st World problems).

Blaming all three infections on the speed of the test results seems a bit of a stretch.

A giant swath of the population does not get to stay home from work while they wait for test results, even if they don’t feel 100%.

[Guest]

2 hours ago, scottsins said:

A giant swath of the population does not get to stay home from work while they wait for test results, even if they don’t feel 100%.

That's insane. Some companies are putting their folks out for 14 days with pay,  regardless on any sick call- then if it comes back negative, oh well.  Better safe than sorry.

It shouldn't be on the employee to make a choice between income and making the right decision for everyone's safety.

[kevwun 16293]

The tests are spotty enough where that’s not a bad plan especially with people that are in the early stages of the infection.  Lots of people have tested negative only to be positive a few days later.

Edited July 9, 2020 by kevwun

[Bevo 13829]

12 minutes ago, slorch said:

It shouldn't be on the employee to make a choice between income and making the right decision for everyone's safety.

Maybe you didn't think this through, but it shouldn't be on the employer to make a choice between staying in business and keeping all their employees on payroll while they stay safe at home. If you truly believe this, say goodbye to Torchy's and pretty much every small and medium -business. And once those are gone, say goodbye to the large businesses that sell to the small and medium-sized businesses.

[Guest]

Just now, Bevo said:

Maybe you didn't think this through, but it shouldn't be on the employer to make a choice between staying in business and keeping all their employees on payroll while they stay safe at home. If you truly believe this, say goodbye to Torchy's and pretty much every small and medium -business. And once those are gone, say goodbye to the large businesses that sell to the small and medium-sized businesses.

Let me clarify, if an employer can put their employees in that position, it's better.

For food service industry, for sure, if you're sick, stay the fuck home.

[Macanudo 13258]

5 hours ago, elfenix said:

Houston is having a spike in people dying at home:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/coronavirus-surges-houston-confronts-its-hidden-toll-people-dying-home-n1233151

This is what the naysayers and deniers havent been getting.  If we see jump of 75 people dying at home in June over previous June's then SOMETHING is happening.  And because we dont test the dead, we dont have good answers.    Logic says, "hey at least some of these were from coronavirus."  But deniers say "Nu-uh!"

 

It's just depressing and sad how many people are open to rational thought.

[SHOOTER12 8883]

Well hell, sometimes you win, and then sometimes you lose.

Found out yesterday evening that the. 88 year old woman who recovered from the coronavirus has passed away.  She suffered a stroke sometime yesterday.  The world is a better place due to her life in it.

On a second note we found out that my wifes doctor was a diagnosed with the coronavirus.

Edited July 9, 2020 by SHOOTER12

[Judge Roybeanbag 11856]

4 minutes ago, SHOOTER12 said:

Well hell, sometimes you win, and then sometimes you lose.

Found out yesterday evening that the. 88 year old woman who recovered from the coronavirus has passed away.  She suffered a stroke sometime yesterday.  The world is a better place due to her life in it.

On a second note we found out that my wifes doctor was a diagnosed with the coronavirus.

Stay safe out there, Shooter!

[SHOOTER12 8883]

Just now, Judge Roybeanbag said:

Stay safe out there, Shooter!

I'm trying judge.  Of course as luck would have it I received last minute notice Sunday that I had to be in Corpus Christi this week.

[gmr548 16681]

That's insane. Some companies are putting their folks out for 14 days with pay,  regardless on any sick call- then if it comes back negative, oh well.  Better safe than sorry.
It shouldn't be on the employee to make a choice between income and making the right decision for everyone's safety.

New to America?

[atomheartbevo 90550]

City Council is having a big covid meeting at 10am.  Going to discuss UT’s modeling of covid trends and whether to have more restrictions.

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/special-austin-city-council-meeting-thursday-could-result-in-more-covid-19-ordinances/