COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[gmr548 16,514]

11 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Also fuck dude- I said shut down 8 times and shit down once, and followed shit down with “shave” when I clearly meant save. I can’t fucking get a benefit of the doubt before you call me an aggy on a pretty common typo (u/I/o transposed  on an iPhone?) in that scenario?  

It was back-to-back posts, only reason I caught it. I was being tongue in cheek but I'm sorry if it bothered you. Wasn't going for a personal attack. I'd be meaner :).

[gmr548 16,514]

7 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

It will have to. COVID ain’t asking the economy for permission to wreck shit. 

Right? Like society is magically going to behave "normally." Jlawokay.gif

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

9 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

It will have to. COVID ain’t asking the economy for permission to wreck shit. 

you're not following what i'm saying. we can't "ping pong" back and forth from open to shuttered as the poster i replied to suggested. businesses can't function in that type of environment. again, there's a playbook for how to get people back to work/school safely and virtually every developed country in the world is executing it. we aren't, because we fucking suck. 

[justhookit 4,180]

14 hours ago, Walte464 said:

It wasn’t a data dump, they reiterated that it was the days numbers.

 

14 hours ago, Message Board User said:

Yeah Hidalgo had more cases today than Dallas County despite 1/3 the population.  😬

 

Not exactly a data dump, but this appears to be explained by running a bunch of tests at HEB. It was open.

”The drastic increase in cases comes a day after a massive testing effort at Bert Ogden Arena and H-E-B Park began, in which 5,000 tests were administered.”

https://www.themonitor.com/2020/07/09/1274-new-covid-19-cases-hidalgo-county-single-day/

[justhookit 4,180]

10 hours ago, Pimphand said:

Scientists hail 'stunning' results that show areas of New York may have reached 68 per cent immunity

https://www.yahoo.com/news/scientists-hail-stunning-results-show-180918348.html

 

If Covid 19 has an r0 of 3 then NY probably did hit that number.  It's time to take it on the chin boys and get this ish over with.

Did you read that article? It’s not exactly good news. Even if the study is right, it’s not NY or even NYC reaching those immunity numbers. It’s a few neighborhoods.

[Wulaw Horn 18,981]

15 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Whack a mole isn't actually a  bad strategy. In fact, it is one promoted by the experts (it was right upfront as a recommended action in the initial Imperial College Report). Open up (with restrictions and precautions). Use data to determine when re-shutting down would be appropriate (e.g., tracking # of cases, tracking hospitalizations, or just tracking sewage as Harvard study indicated). The goal of course is that if your precautions/restrictions are good enough, you won't need to shut down again. But, it is also possible that they just extend the period between shutdowns. That is still beneficial: (1) it buys time to learn more about the virus and development vaccines/treatments/strategies for reducing spread and (2) allows economic activity to continue with greater confidence than either a complete shut down or complete reopening with no particular plan for handling the rise in cases. 

Your choice of doing nothing and just going with it is lazy and, frankly, stupid. We don't need to be in a binary situation. We have more options and enough smart people to come up with and implement them. Avoiding action because the problem is difficult is irresponsible. 

Also, pretty confident that we do have enough information from South Korea at this point to conclude that there are good strategies that actually make this livable. 

That’s not what I’m saying. I completely advocated using the shut down to ramp up like crazy with tests and PPE and robust random testing of the population to see how many asymptotic people there are, the extent of the spread, hospitalization rates, death rates etc. also, you need to see spikes in this thing at some point in time to determine whether or not we are pushing the envelope far enough. If things never spiked or got bad then that means we are too restrictive in what we are doing and that’s causing needless economic, social and mental health problems. 
it’s completely unprecedented and I don’t  believe it’s likely anyone stumbles onto the perfect solution at any point in time. 
I’m not sitting here waiving Pom poms for anyone and saying everything is great. If there are other ways to better treat this thing then we certainly still have the capability to try them out. Nothing is magical about March as opposed to now- you can still try whatever you want to try to shove the genie back into the bottle. I’m speculating that there isn’t a really good way out on this thing. As I said- I hope I’m wrong. 

[Wulaw Horn 18,981]

19 minutes ago, Grade of D as in David said:

Btw I appreciate you trying to make the best out of this situation, and really enjoy your thread on your family adventure. 

That said, I don't think it's fair to say that people who want to stop the spread (with shutdowns if needed) are choosing to be miserable. Fuck man we're all miserable. There's no way to avoid it. Summer travel plans have been scrapped, there's probably not going to be college football in the fall, there aren't going to be any new tv shows or movies coming out for a while. People are losing jobs, their insurance, businesses, and in some cases their loved ones. It fucking sucks. 

That want a generalized statement it was specific toward him, and it has nothing to do with Covid but rather his general outlook on life. It was a one of one observation. 

[Surly Bevo 24,696]

Leaving politics aside a few things clearly have conspired to make this more of a shitshow here

1.  Our society/culture has been trained/ingrained to not live in fear.  "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself". "Fear is what the terrorists want" blah blah blah.  Sometimes a healthy dose of fear is a good thing.  Not that they completely relate but I was reading Jimmy Johnson talk about the 92 Cowboys team and how after they beat the 49ers (How bout them Cowboys and all that) that he spent the following time before the Super Bowl instilling the fear in the team that they could lose...he had to make sure they were scared or they would come in overconfident and unprepared

2.  Along with 1 we have a lot of pretty dumb people in this country.  They need a visual to scare them.  There was/is no 9/11 type airplanes crashing into buildings etc here.  It's all numbers/data and until it hits something close to home something far away that they can't really get a grasp on.  Ultimately for people there is no "call to action" that resonates because they are not really intellectual enough to follow along with science.  Maybe they are deniers but more likely they are just ignorant.  

Put those two things together with a lack of leadership/messaging and here we are...

[atomheartbevo 89,448]

4 hours ago, Enchubben said:

 

While we need to have some kind of in-person schooling this fall, I'm not trusting the CDC at this point, because they've been sidelined and are being told what to write.  You can read the CR threads for more details.  Or go hit up some neutral news sites.

This is the AAP's full statement/etc.:

https://services.aap.org/en/news-room/news-releases/aap/2020/pediatricians-educators-and-superintendents-urge-a-safe-return-to-school-this-fall/

 

[Wulaw Horn 18,981]

17 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

You said it in two separate posts, back-to-back. Neither post contained any other formulation for the words "shut down." It did appear intentional. 

P.S. Pretty sure "shave" was supposed to be "have," not "save."  

Yeah- it clearly wasn’t meant to be shave. And I had a post above with literally shut down written 8 times correctly. If reading through the thread that context should have been obvious as a typo, but good manners would have called for- hey did you mean to type shit down there or is that a typo?  
for future reference when you see me typing about something ducking sucking I mean fucking btw. 

[atomheartbevo 89,448]

1 minute ago, Surly Bevo said:

Leaving politics aside a few things clearly have conspired to make this more of a shitshow here

1.  Our society/culture has been trained/ingrained to not live in fear.  "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself". "Fear is what the terrorists want" blah blah blah.  Sometimes a healthy dose of fear is a good thing.  Not that they completely relate but I was reading Jimmy Johnson talk about the 92 Cowboys team and how after they beat the 49ers (How bout them Cowboys and all that) that he spent the following time before the Super Bowl instilling the fear in the team that they could lose...he had to make sure they were scared or they would come in overconfident and unprepared

2.  Along with 1 we have a lot of pretty dumb people in this country.  They need a visual to scare them.  There was/is no 9/11 type airplanes crashing into buildings etc here.  It's all numbers/data and until it hits something close to home something far away that they can't really get a grasp on.  Ultimately for people there is no "call to action" that resonates because they are not really intellectual enough to follow along with science.  Maybe they are deniers but more likely they are just ignorant.  

Put those two things together with a lack of leadership/messaging and here we are...

It's not about fear, it's about showing some fucking respect to your elders and those with compromised  immune systems..

[Wulaw Horn 18,981]

18 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

It was back-to-back posts, only reason I caught it. I was being tongue in cheek but I'm sorry if it bothered you. Wasn't going for a personal attack. I'd be meaner :).

Fair enough. 

[Surly Bevo 24,696]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It's not about fear, it's about showing some fucking respect to your elders and those with compromised  immune systems..

Fear of something and respect for it and what it can do often go hand in hand.  If you are hoping people give respect to something just because they should that's a noble dream but wish in one hand and shit in the other

Edited July 10, 2020 by Surly Bevo

[ChiTownDoc 21,102]

3 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

Leaving politics aside a few things clearly have conspired to make this more of a shitshow here

1.  Our society/culture has been trained/ingrained to not live in fear.  "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself". "Fear is what the terrorists want" blah blah blah.  Sometimes a healthy dose of fear is a good thing.  Not that they completely relate but I was reading Jimmy Johnson talk about the 92 Cowboys team and how after they beat the 49ers (How bout them Cowboys and all that) that he spent the following time before the Super Bowl instilling the fear in the team that they could lose...he had to make sure they were scared or they would come in overconfident and unprepared

2.  Along with 1 we have a lot of pretty dumb people in this country.  They need a visual to scare them.  There was/is no 9/11 type airplanes crashing into buildings etc here.  It's all numbers/data and until it hits something close to home something far away that they can't really get a grasp on.  Ultimately for people there is no "call to action" that resonates because they are not really intellectual enough to follow along with science.  Maybe they are deniers but more likely they are just ignorant.  

Put those two things together with a lack of leadership/messaging and here we are...

Yeah.  We are dumb.  You don’t evolve without fear.  Here we are, as a country, winning a Darwin Award. 

[gmr548 16,514]

Not only was it a crappy plan, but the motivation for it was disgusting.  I won't say more than that given what thread we're in.
There's a fine line to walk between keeping the economy going and minimizing the effects of this pandemic.  At some point, continued "duty cycling" of the economy and avoidable extension of the effects of the pandemic are going to economically override any benefit gained from "reopening."

Which is very, very simple to understand. And yet, here we are.

[Fudge Nuggets 19,151]

26 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

you're not following what i'm saying. we can't "ping pong" back and forth from open to shuttered as the poster i replied to suggested. businesses can't function in that type of environment. again, there's a playbook for how to get people back to work/school safely and virtually every developed country in the world is executing it. we aren't, because we fucking suck. 

The economy has survived world wars, a civil war, depressions, previous pandemics, horrible misallocation of capital, etc. It won’t be at its current levels but it will survive shut downs and reopenings.  Then when this is finally over it will eventually recover. 

[Grade of D as in David 13,253]

25 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That’s not what I’m saying. I completely advocated using the shut down to ramp up like crazy with tests and PPE and robust random testing of the population to see how many asymptotic people there are, the extent of the spread, hospitalization rates, death rates etc. also, you need to see spikes in this thing at some point in time to determine whether or not we are pushing the envelope far enough. If things never spiked or got bad then that means we are too restrictive in what we are doing and that’s causing needless economic, social and mental health problems. 
it’s completely unprecedented and I don’t  believe it’s likely anyone stumbles onto the perfect solution at any point in time. 
I’m not sitting here waiving Pom poms for anyone and saying everything is great. If there are other ways to better treat this thing then we certainly still have the capability to try them out. Nothing is magical about March as opposed to now- you can still try whatever you want to try to shove the genie back into the bottle. I’m speculating that there isn’t a really good way out on this thing. As I said- I hope I’m wrong. 

I agree with that, but we didn't even wait to reach the case number requirements for phase 1 or 2 of the reopening.

What we're seeing now in many parts of America is not the expected spike of pushing the envelope, it's the result of willfully ignoring data and prescribed requirements.

That's indefensible and thousands died because of it. 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

4 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

The economy has survived world wars, a civil war, depressions, previous pandemics, horrible misallocation of capital, etc. It won’t be at its current levels but it will survive shut downs and reopenings.  Then when this is finally over it will eventually recover. 

none of those things are even remotely similar to what was being considered. i'm not sure you really grasp the economic implications of 'ping ponging' back and forth between opening and shuttering massive segments of our economy. from an economic and social safety net standpoint, we simply aren't structured to withstand that.

[Grade of D as in David 13,253]

5 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

The economy has survived world wars, a civil war, depressions, previous pandemics, horrible misallocation of capital, etc. It won’t be at its current levels but it will survive shut downs and reopenings.  Then when this is finally over it will eventually recover. 

Yep it will be different but survive. It's just like the earth and global warming. Humanity or other species (businesses or industries) may be destroyed but mother earth is going to keep chugging along until it's sucked into the gravity of the sun in a few billion years.

[UT_OB1 2,200]

We finally had our first positive pop from a crew member that worked this weekend.  He started feeling sick and running a fever the night after his Sunday day shift.  For the most part everyone has done a good job being masked up and working in their own areas, but there were a couple instances where he had to work closely with someone else.  No one has run a fever, and we have a whole crew plus 2 that worked close with him to run through testing, but I think we'll have kept it contained.  He slept the last couple of days and woke up feeling better this morning, so hopefully he's over the bulk of it as well.

[Wulaw Horn 18,981]

9 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

none of those things are even remotely similar to what was being considered. i'm not sure you really grasp the economic implications of 'ping ponging' back and forth between opening and shuttering massive segments of our economy. from an economic and social safety net standpoint, we simply aren't structured to withstand that.

I mean, I think what he’s saying is someday we will have a robust economy again and he’s probably right. We are pretty resilient as a species and that’s true. Hell, Black Death killed half of Europe and they bounced back to be the best economy in the world. It only took them like 100 years...

[SHOOTER12 8,789]

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

You said it in two separate posts, back-to-back. Neither post contained any other formulation for the words "shut down." It did appear intentional. 

P.S. Pretty sure "shave" was supposed to be "have," not "save."  

Well to be fair, his fingers are going to stay fat no matter which post, or where he posts.

[LonghornJones 835]

I can handle all of the closures, but if you tell me the Houston rodeo gets cancelled, I'm not sure what I will do.

[Burt Macklin 18,998]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

We will see if that all works. The reopening in Texas and Florida and Georgia looked pretty fucking awesome for about a month until it didn’t.

like I said, I hope I’m wrong. Nothing would make me happier. Me and mine are social distancing and masking up and not around others etc and so forth. I hope this is an adequate way out. I suspect it isn’t. 

 

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

And we don’t have enough data from “the rest of the world starting to open back up” yet to see if it’s manageable for them. If it is than we fucked in big time. If they end up playing whack a mole and have flares up and down then none of it fucking matters. 
 

How can you say we don’t have enough data when other countries have been open for much longer and didn’t have anywhere near the issues we’ve had? It’s plain as day that there’s a better way to do it than what America has done. I have no idea how you can genuinely claim that’s not apparent or we don’t have enough dat. Sure, other countries may end up having flare ups, but it’s painfully obvious they’ve handled it better than America. 

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

but yeah, these shit downs shave never seems like anything other than kicking the can down the road and delaying the inevitable. I’m a rip the band aid off kind of guy though. 

I mean I guess if those are my two options, then I’m also a rip the band aid off kind of guy. The shit downs shave guys stayed on shaggy or post under the username futureman on here. 
 

on a serious note, while saying rip the band aid off sounds nice in isolation, if we truly tried that method, the hospitals would’ve been completely overwhelmed and the resultant health and economic crises would be way worse than what we’re dealing with now. Texas was going through a phased re-opening with a lot of limitations still in place when this wave hit and stretched ICU capacities in many places. If we had gone full rip the band aid off, it would’ve been much, much worse.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

9 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I mean, I think what he’s saying is someday we will have a robust economy again and he’s probably right. We are pretty resilient as a species and that’s true. Hell, Black Death killed half of Europe and they bounced back to be the best economy in the world. It only took them like 100 years...

yeah, and i'm specifically talking about the ping ponging back and forth that was presented as a best case scenario for the time being. i think you'll see economic collapse followed closely by something that looks like societal collapse if we try and start and stop our economic engine. we just aren't set up to withstand that type of environment.

[TwiceHorn 31,283]

Several times now I have seen Dallas County death reports as:

"critically ill in an area hospital, but no underlying health conditions."

Does that mean critically ill with Covid?  Or what?

[Skipper 6,103]

22 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Several times now I have seen Dallas County death reports as:

"critically ill in an area hospital, but no underlying health conditions."

Does that mean critically ill with Covid?  Or what?

That's what I've assumed.   I've seen it phrased that way both with or without underlying conditions but it seems like the most common phrase.  Thus, I always took that to mean someone in a COVID-ICU on a ventilator or otherwise very sick that succumbed.

[AggieFactFinder 31]

Twice, the same thing has bugged the shit out of me since they started reporting.  It's absurd that the county doesn't make that clear.

[gmr548 16,514]

Twice, the same thing has bugged the shit out of me since they started reporting.  It's absurd that the county doesn't make that clear.

Username checks out except first word

[DDD Dad 14,251]

3 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Better than completely shit down indefinitely, I think. 

Unintentional typo fits.

[Trey3216 15,325]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

It's not about fear, it's about showing some fucking respect to your elders and those with compromised  immune systems..

Awful sweet of many of those people to show some respect to themselves and their kids over the last 30 years while they were hoarding an extra 50-150 lbs.   

[Skipper 6,103]

7 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Awful sweet of many of those people to show some respect to themselves and their kids over the last 30 years while they were hoarding an extra 50-150 lbs.   

Well that's an interesting take.   What about the physically fit elderly or sick?   Fuck them for being old and/or unlucky?

[Trey3216 15,325]

21 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Well that's an interesting take.   What about the physically fit elderly or sick?   Fuck them for being old and/or unlucky?

Just throwing an idea out there.   Friday afternoon drinking and going full surl 

[MissingInAction 24,824]

Once things start sharting down, we are truly fucked.

[PantsTent 2,002]

2 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

Once things start sharting down, we are truly fucked.

Not sure if intentional or unintentional typo....

[Sbbruin 21,737]

3 hours ago, Skipper said:

South Korea is the Bama of Coronavirus.   I would just be happy if America could get bowl eligible.

Donald Trump is the Chip Kelly of of Coronavirus.  Whoops, CR'd it.  mea culpa

[El Diablo 4,232]

6 minutes ago, PantsTent said:

Not sure if intentional or unintentional typo....

I shut your mother down last night.

[Wulaw Horn 18,981]

11 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

Donald Trump is the Chip Kelly of of Coronavirus.  Whoops, CR'd it.  mea culpa

That’s fair since you had to deal with both of them. 

[Trey3216 15,325]

16 minutes ago, El Diablo said:

I shut your mother down last night.

But did you shart her down?

[Trey3216 15,325]

23 minutes ago, PantsTent said:

Not sure if intentional or unintentional typo....

Username sometimes checks out 

[El Diablo 4,232]

7 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

But did you shart her down?

Shit, it was the sharting that shut her down.

[SHOOTER12 8,789]

1 hour ago, Skipper said:

Well that's an interesting take.   What about the physically fit elderly or sick?   Fuck them for being old and/or unlucky?

Lol, watch it, watch it 😂

[ChiTownDoc 21,102]

Shart talk not going away. 

[SHOOTER12 8,789]

42 minutes ago, PantsTent said:

Not sure if intentional or unintentional typo....

Either way it's a pretty shitty deal.

[MissingInAction 24,824]

1 minute ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Shart talk not going away. 

It always manages to leak through.

[El Diablo 4,232]

I'm about an hour and a half from starting 9 days of vacation. Wheeeeeeeee!!!!!!!! Just in time for the first real extended blast furnace this year.

[Trey3216 15,325]

24 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Shart talk not going away. 

Did you have to let it linger?

[GRHorn 105]

16 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Our economy can’t withstand that type of prolonged uncertainty. 

Good thing you’re leaving 

[SHOOTER12 8,789]

3 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Did you have to let it linger?

Linger? It goes through his drawers like hot grease through a screen door.

Edited July 11, 2020 by SHOOTER12

[Fondren & Main 6,670]

1 hour ago, MissingInAction said:

Once things start sharting down, we are truly fucked.

Just gotta go commando, brother.  It’s oddly freeing.