COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[BrazilHorn 6576]

% of total travis county deaths. 
82% of all deaths in travis county have come from those aged 60&up

[NAVY 6739]

Travis up today. Maybe this was a weekend backlog getting cleared. 
 

https://www.traviscountytx.gov/news/2020/1945-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-information

[LebongJames 1787]

Fucking Tuesday’s 

[Guest Lobo]

GobBluth, "So Corona Tuesdays will be our biggest promotion of the year!"  

MichaelBluth, (reads Gob the stats)

GobBluth, "I've made a huge mistake."  

[XYZ 2154]

Seems like that’s another thing that’s really, really hard for America: counting.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11810]

18 minutes ago, NAVY said:

Travis up today. Maybe this was a weekend backlog getting cleared. 
 

https://www.traviscountytx.gov/news/2020/1945-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-information

I’m sure that’s part of it.  My son got tested Friday morning, got his negative result this morning.  

[dcar00 14036]

23 minutes ago, LebongJames said:

Fucking Tuesday’s 

Its ALWAYS the big day!

[Js1 85132]

28 minutes ago, XYZ said:

Seems like that’s another thing that’s really, really hard for America: counting.

[MissingInAction 24827]

43 minutes ago, LebongJames said:

Fucking Tuesday’s 

No shit. The rona is even fucking up bird day.

[B00M 6280]

7 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

That article earlier that I posted, that mentioned 85 infants with covid, as somebody said, that was in total since March.

There have only been 60 infants in the Corpus Christi area that have caught covid this month, and only one passed away.

https://www.kvue.com/article/news/health/rare-outbreak-of-covid-19-among-infants-has-south-texas-health-officials-concerned/269-8d2a21f7-8745-4459-8e4d-f6aac7871651

Thankfully it's pretty mild in most little kids.

*eye brow cocks* 1 of 60 infants that got it died? Would really like the details on.that one.

[InkaUtexas 25530]

Don't' know what to make about Hays county numbers. 

114 confirmed yesterday, 25 confirmed today. And I know testing is an issue, but damn, you drive around town and very few are taking it seriously. 

What does the Surl think? 

[atomheartbevo 89457]

21 minutes ago, B00M said:

*eye brow cocks* 1 of 60 infants that got it died? Would really like the details on.that one.

https://abc13.com/baby-dies-from-coronavirus-corpus-christi-nuces-county-death-covid/6311428/

Quote

District director Annette Rodriguez said the child had a co-infection and his death was identified as sudden infant death syndrome, also known as SIDS, the Corpus Christi Caller-Times reported.

The baby tested positive for the virus that causes COVID-19. The child was sent home from the hospital after responding to a doctor's care.

Since the child was diagnosed with COVID-19, his death will be considered coronavirus-related.

Lot of discussion about it (lot of lawyering up probably), because the child had been hospitalized, then responded to doctor's care and was sent home.

6 week-old probably has a helluva time fighting any infection off, and getting covid on top of an infection.  Furk.

For the surly lawyers:  If he picked it up in the hospital, that's bad, isn't it?  

Edited July 22, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[Fudge Nuggets 19151]

1 hour ago, Lobo said:

GobBluth, "So Corona Tuesdays will be our biggest promotion of the year!"  

MichaelBluth, (reads Gob the stats)

GobBluth, "I've made a huge mistake."  

You seem to watch a lot of television.

[GRHorn 105]

2 hours ago, C-Man said:

That story didn't sound right from the beginning. I figured it had to be 85 since March and that still seemed like a big number.

That was obvious Corona fear porn. 

[Guest Lobo]

1 minute ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

You seem to watch a lot of television.

Yes, years ago after I completed grad school, was engaged, and had no children...I watched 3 seasons of a very funny show between 2003-2006.  watching 3 seasons of "Arrested Development" 15 years ago clearly was a television addiction.  I am so saddened you found me out.  You need to learn what show references came from when.  But we're all super proud of you.  

[Fudge Nuggets 19151]

10 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Yes, years ago after I completed grad school, was engaged, and had no children...I watched 3 seasons of a very funny show between 2003-2006.  watching 3 seasons of "Arrested Development" 15 years ago clearly was a television addiction.  I am so saddened you found me out.  You need to learn what show references came from when.  But we're all super proud of you.  

Admission is the first step to recovery so good for you.

[BradInATX 9208]

7 hours ago, Bevo said:

Let's gt away from using technical terms such as herd immunity and use logic. A decent number of people had this in the spring. We just went through an outbreak where a large number of people were exposed and infected. When school opens in August and we have a vacation in Sept. and people go back to work, we will have another outbreak that should infect more because of more opportunities for exposure and a slightly different patient population (more children, teenagers and young adults). After that outbreak subsides either through government intervention or because people wise up, there won't be much opportunity for the virus to spread as most of the common vectors such as young kids and dumb people will have already had it. So, the virus may persist because of poor habits but at low levels because of the community immunity.

The first and second "waves" barely even register in terms of the percentage of the Texas population that has been infected. Even using the most generous metric of 10 unreported cases for every confirmed (which I'm a little skeptical of), with all that's been happening, only about 10% of our population will have had it. 

You're saying that another wave that maybe will put us at 15-20% having had it is going to have enough of an impact to where we're going to "cruise to the vaccine"? 

C'mon man. I get that you're not trying to turn this into a math or numbers conversation and you're sort of shooting from the hip and trying to apply gut feeling/common sense, and that's fine. But no matter how you want to look at this thing, it's a numbers game. And 15-20% infected is not going to get us "cruising" to anything. That'll get us about 1/3 of the way there. Nowhere close.

Edited July 22, 2020 by BradInATX

[BradInATX 9208]

On the bright side, Austin new admits headed back down with three days in a row showing a downward trend in the weekly average. Looks like (insert your choice of getting past the 4th of July, facemask mandates, or whatever) is working and starting to show up in the numbers finally.

Good work. Haircuts for everyone!

[Newdoc 3433]

25 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

You're saying that another wave that maybe will put us at 15-20% having had it is going to have enough of an impact to where we're going to "cruise to the vaccine"? 

I agree it won’t either but every percentage tick up in infections (as long as some acquired immunity last) and with an unknown but likely  chunk of people not susceptible will get us a lower Rt and hopefully a slower spread. It’s like finding a flower in the cow patty but at least it’s something.

[Hate 20103]

26 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

On the bright side, Austin new admits headed back down with three days in a row showing a downward trend in the weekly average. Looks like (insert your choice of getting past the 4th of July, facemask mandates, or whatever) is working and starting to show up in the numbers finally.

Good work. Haircuts for everyone!

One step ahead of you.  I got my haircut today!

[BradInATX 9208]

 

7 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

I agree it won’t either but every percentage tick up in infections (as long as some acquired immunity last) and with an unknown but likely  chunk of people not susceptible will get us a lower Rt and hopefully a slower spread. It’s like finding a flower in the cow patty but at least it’s something.

Yeah, for sure. And that 10-20% could be pretty important when it comes to the timing of the vaccine too. If we can only vaccinate 100 million people in the first few months (or whatever number), that 100 million plus the 20% who have already had it will get us pretty damned near herd immunity. 

 

3 minutes ago, Hate said:

One step ahead of you.  I got my haircut today!

RIP

[B00M 6280]

19 minutes ago, Hate said:

One step ahead of you.  I got my haircut today!

1 to 2 on the sides, 2 to 8 on top, blend in between as needed. Don't forget the edges around the ears and bottom-back. Free and takes 10 minutes. Take the savings pussy!

[Bevo 13528]

34 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

I agree it won’t either but every percentage tick up in infections (as long as some acquired immunity last) and with an unknown but likely  chunk of people not susceptible will get us a lower Rt and hopefully a slower spread. It’s like finding a flower in the cow patty but at least it’s something.

I think we will find a higher percentage of infected in larger and more densely packed cities. So all of Nebraska, Kansas and flyover states may only have 5% of its populations infected. Those percentages may also be low in rural areas of Texas, Illinois, and other non-fly over states. Then in cities like Chicago, NYC, Houston, Philadelphia, etc. the percentage of infected may soon get to a significant portion of the population. At that point, with a large chunk of people not susceptible, the spread will slow.

I'll give kind of a crappy comparison. 45% of America gets the flu shot. In a year where the flu vaccine is chosen properly, the flu still spreads in the US. However, if people wore masks, avoided large gatherings, and a good percentage of people worked from home, the flu may not spread much at all with an effective flu vaccine thrown into the mix. And if kids and students stayed home, I have my doubts whether it would even sustain.

Where the US and the world will screw up is when we send our kids back to school. This thing is going to blow up as soon as that happens and they will be sent back home soon after. I think at that point we will be good for the rest of the year but it is just conjecture based on the most likely vectors having immunity.

[Hate 20103]

13 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I think we will find a higher percentage of infected in larger and more densely packed cities. So all of Nebraska, Kansas and flyover states may only have 5% of its populations infected. Those percentages may also be low in rural areas of Texas, Illinois, and other non-fly over states. Then in cities like Chicago, NYC, Houston, Philadelphia, etc. the percentage of infected may soon get to a significant portion of the population. At that point, with a large chunk of people not susceptible, the spread will slow.

I'll give kind of a crappy comparison. 45% of America gets the flu shot. In a year where the flu vaccine is chosen properly, the flu still spreads in the US. However, if people wore masks, avoided large gatherings, and a good percentage of people worked from home, the flu may not spread much at all with an effective flu vaccine thrown into the mix. And if kids and students stayed home, I have my doubts whether it would even sustain.

Where the US and the world will screw up is when we send our kids back to school. This thing is going to blow up as soon as that happens and they will be sent back home soon after. I think at that point we will be good for the rest of the year but it is just conjecture based on the most likely vectors having immunity.

THIS ISN"T THE FLU /angry wuhanflu guy

[Rougarou 594]

I read that AstraZeneca was entering phase 2 of a vaccination testing (there are only 3 phases) after getting good immune responses in phase 1 with a test group of 1000+ folks. If things go well, perfect/happy-path, we are looking at something being available in October-ish timeframe. There is a $1.2bn contract for 300mm doses of a vaccination for whomever gets there first. 

Come fall/winter/early spring of 2021, there will be a drastic change. Come this time next year, all those lucky enough not to have been personally affected (death, family, jobs, wealth, etc.) will view all this as a faint memory. Oceans rise; empires fall...

[Brisketexan 104663]

I read that AstraZeneca was entering phase 2 of a vaccination testing (there are only 3 phases) after getting good immune responses in phase 1 with a test group of 1000+ folks. If things go well, perfect/happy-path, we are looking at something being available in October-ish timeframe. There is a $1.2bn contract for 300mm doses of a vaccination for whomever gets there first. 
Come fall/winter/early spring of 2021, there will be a drastic change. Come this time next year, all those lucky enough not to have been personally affected (death, family, jobs, wealth, etc.) will view all this as a faint memory. Oceans rise; empires fall...

.....and we’ll remain butt-reamingly stupid. Some things are a constant.

[Bevo 13528]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

.....and we’ll remain butt-reamingly stupid. Some things are a constant.

I need some sort of a comparison so that I know how stupid that is.

[Rougarou 594]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

.....and we’ll remain butt-reamingly stupid. Some things are a constant.

This has definitely shown me that....well, I am not sure how to characterize it. I guess I'd say that we need the deus ex machina of modern medicine/magic from the powers that be, because we are collectively too large a human, global population to be efficient and intelligent, as a whole.

In a lot of ways, globalization has made us weaker but I think coronavirus has highlighted it, too. We are much less as the sum of all the parts then we are individually and this is why tribalism and homogeneity will always prevail, it can literally be an existential issue.

[Bartles 769]

^ Astra definitely not public before 2021 according to BBC. But that would be awesome anyway.

I've posted before, won't use the term "herd immunity" but something is going on in the northeast among other places where the virus just isn't jumping around like it used to. But every time we let up a little, especially with opening bars/indoor dining, we get a reminder that it is still just as dangerous as in the spring. I agree school openings will have the same effect. Just really hope Texas is over the hump and will soon be in that category where being careful and sensible is enough to ward it off. (Except for those Brisket mentioned, and there's a bunch)

[Rougarou 594]

3 minutes ago, Bartles said:

^ Astra definitely not public before 2021 according to BBC. But that would be awesome anyway.

I've posted before, won't use the term "herd immunity" but something is going on in the northeast among other places where the virus just isn't jumping around like it used to. But every time we let up a little, especially with opening bars/indoor dining, we get a reminder that it is still just as dangerous as in the spring. I agree school openings will have the same effect. Just really hope Texas is over the hump and will soon be in that category where being careful and sensible is enough to ward it off. (Except for those Brisket mentioned, and there's a bunch)

Quote

Exciting as these developments are, it’s still early. The WHO acknowledged there’s an uphill climb through larger scale, real-world trials ahead. But if AstraZeneca keeps its grades up and makes it to production, it has a $1.2 billion deal with the U.S. for 300 million doses this fall.

Edited July 22, 2020 by Rougarou
went back and googled

[atomheartbevo 89457]

2 hours ago, BradInATX said:

On the bright side, Austin new admits headed back down with three days in a row showing a downward trend in the weekly average. Looks like (insert your choice of getting past the 4th of July, facemask mandates, or whatever) is working and starting to show up in the numbers finally.

Good work. Haircuts for everyone!

This week is looking up.  Hasbro is rolling out a retro line of the 80s G I Joe toys, and I just managed to score some Wal-Mart pre-orders for my son in time for his birthday..

[Trey3216 15325]

1 hour ago, Bevo said:

I think we will find a higher percentage of infected in larger and more densely packed cities. So all of Nebraska, Kansas and flyover states may only have 5% of its populations infected. Those percentages may also be low in rural areas of Texas, Illinois, and other non-fly over states. Then in cities like Chicago, NYC, Houston, Philadelphia, etc. the percentage of infected may soon get to a significant portion of the population. At that point, with a large chunk of people not susceptible, the spread will slow.

I'll give kind of a crappy comparison. 45% of America gets the flu shot. In a year where the flu vaccine is chosen properly, the flu still spreads in the US. However, if people wore masks, avoided large gatherings, and a good percentage of people worked from home, the flu may not spread much at all with an effective flu vaccine thrown into the mix. And if kids and students stayed home, I have my doubts whether it would even sustain.

Where the US and the world will screw up is when we send our kids back to school. This thing is going to blow up as soon as that happens and they will be sent back home soon after. I think at that point we will be good for the rest of the year but it is just conjecture based on the most likely vectors having immunity.

I think we’re going to have a flu season like we haven’t had in a long while unfortunately.   

[BradInATX 9208]

I think at that point we will be good for the rest of the year but it is just conjecture

That's quite the understatement

[BradInATX 9208]

I think we’re going to have a flu season like we haven’t had in a long while unfortunately.   

Hope not. Flu+covid would be epic suckage. Don't want to speculate on what it would look like if the two both had big outbreaks regionally.
Hopefully we get this vaccine before summer ends in Texas somewhere around mid November.

[Trey3216 15325]

11 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Hope not. Flu+covid would be epic suckage. Don't want to speculate on what it would look like if the two both had big outbreaks regionally.
Hopefully we get this vaccine before summer ends in Texas somewhere around mid November.

I just think the amount of avoidance we have done (handwashing/masks/sanitizer) could have a short term adverse effect on our immune system for the various seasonal viruses we are used to encountering.  

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

I just think the amount of avoidance we have done (handwashing/masks/sanitizer) could have a short term adverse effect on our immune system for the various seasonal viruses we are used to encountering.  

Soo go to strip clubs unmasked?

[brakeman 28264]

6 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Soo go to strip clubs unmasked?

oh titties! 

[Planet Houston 4923]

45 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I just think the amount of avoidance we have done (handwashing/masks/sanitizer) could have a short term adverse effect on our immune system for the various seasonal viruses we are used to encountering.  

But if we are socially distancing, wearing masks and washing hands, won’t that suppress the flu as well? Or are you assuming schools will fuck all that up?

[Drunk Stoner 63]

3 hours ago, Newdoc said:

I agree it won’t either but every percentage tick up in infections (as long as some acquired immunity last) and with an unknown but likely  chunk of people not susceptible will get us a lower Rt and hopefully a slower spread. It’s like finding a flower in the cow patty but at least it’s something.

It’s like finding a mushroom in the cow patty... nm...

[Trey3216 15325]

17 minutes ago, Planet Houston said:

But if we are socially distancing, wearing masks and washing hands, won’t that suppress the flu as well? Or are you assuming schools will fuck all that up?

There, or grocery stores, liquor stores, fast food places, etc.  

[justhookit 4183]

5 hours ago, B00M said:

*eye brow cocks* 1 of 60 infants that got it died? Would really like the details on.that one.

The infant in question went to the hospital for a medical condition completely unrelated to Covid. Once he was in the hospital he tested positive for Covid. Then he died. The actual cause of death - for now - is SIDS. Also, it’s 1 of 85. The 60 number is infants diagnosed with Covid in the last month only. Nueces/Corpus is explaining that by saying they are aggressively testing all family/household members of any positive test. The implication is that there are a bunch of infants out there that have it but haven’t been tested. There’s nothing nefarious going on in Corpus.

[justhookit 4183]

4 hours ago, Bevo said:

I think we will find a higher percentage of infected in larger and more densely packed cities. So all of Nebraska, Kansas and flyover states may only have 5% of its populations infected. Those percentages may also be low in rural areas of Texas, Illinois, and other non-fly over states. Then in cities like Chicago, NYC, Houston, Philadelphia, etc. the percentage of infected may soon get to a significant portion of the population. At that point, with a large chunk of people not susceptible, the spread will slow.

I'll give kind of a crappy comparison. 45% of America gets the flu shot. In a year where the flu vaccine is chosen properly, the flu still spreads in the US. However, if people wore masks, avoided large gatherings, and a good percentage of people worked from home, the flu may not spread much at all with an effective flu vaccine thrown into the mix. And if kids and students stayed home, I have my doubts whether it would even sustain.

Where the US and the world will screw up is when we send our kids back to school. This thing is going to blow up as soon as that happens and they will be sent back home soon after. I think at that point we will be good for the rest of the year but it is just conjecture based on the most likely vectors having immunity.

This entire post is nonsense. Are you trying to say that 45% of the country will have been infected after school starts back up and then closes? We are likely at 12% or less right now. If your scenario happens we are totally fucked. The only part I can agree on is that school is likely a really bad idea.

as for the likely vectors we haven’t even attempted the school kids part yet. It’s spreading just fine with the idiots not wearing masks, 20-40 year olds, and the idiots not taking it seriously.

Edited July 22, 2020 by justhookit

[Texas Jeff 1936]

2 hours ago, Planet Houston said:

But if we are socially distancing, wearing masks and washing hands, won’t that suppress the flu as well? Or are you assuming schools will fuck all that up?

Australia is currently in their flu season and they are having a low year, so you may be right.

[justhookit 4183]

On 6/22/2020 at 5:43 PM, justhookit said:

Hospitalizations jumped from 17 to 28. ICU from 3 to 11.

I made this post about Nueces County exactly a month ago on this thread when I was starting to get concerned about a spike in new cases. Today’s hospitalization number is 408. ICU is 121.

the really, really good news is that we were under 300 cases again today, reporting 289. One week ago we reported 605. People are finally taking this seriously here. Now comes the hard part of continuing to take it seriously as cases decline. I don’t have a lot of faith.

Edited July 22, 2020 by justhookit

[Armybrat 40749]

8 hours ago, Bevo said:

I need some sort of a comparison so that I know how stupid that is.

TexAgs.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11810]

6 hours ago, brakeman said:

oh titties! 

Breast milk has antibodies!  Titties for everybody!

[Dbeasy 14971]

Starr County announces that they’ve formed a committee to determine which patients will take the few remaining hospital icu beds and the rest will be sent home. They’ve run out of space and can’t place patients in other counties.

[Bevo 13528]

4 hours ago, justhookit said:

This entire post is nonsense. Are you trying to say that 45% of the country will have been infected after school starts back up and then closes? We are likely at 12% or less right now. If your scenario happens we are totally fucked. The only part I can agree on is that school is likely a really bad idea.

I don't think we know what percent have been exposed. If chitowndoc takes an antibody test today with low sensitivity does anyone have confidence to bet one way or the other. I think I was infected in late February. I haven't been tested and I have a hard time understanding why I should be tested now. A negative or a positive antibody test wouldn't change anything.

And exposure rates like I stated earlier vary dramatically by region so that 12% that you are guessing includes low percentages in some rural areas and high percentages in some urban areas. And that 12% also has a significant impact on how the virus spreads. And that number will surely grow (whatever it is) after schools reopen and people vacation and more people go back to working in the office.

As for the 45%, I was just giving an analogy when no great one exists. I don't think 45% of the population has been infected. It is much, much lower. And people probably don't remember a flu season that was particularly mild where the flu shot was highly effective. And people probably can't imagine what such a flu season would be like if people wore masks and kids stayed at home.  What I was saying is that if a decent percentage of people are immune to this coronavirus and people continue safe practices, this virus will be pretty well contained.

As for the predictions above that the flu will be particularly bad, I highly doubt it, at least through the rest of 2020. Many places around the world are doing a pretty good job with safe practices, flights are still somewhat limited. People here are generally doing okay with masks and working at home. And people here are spooked to where an outbreak of the flu will start sending people to the doctor to get tested for COVID and the flu and cause the government to intervene again and create another strong run of good practices. 

[gmr548 16519]

This entire post is nonsense. Are you trying to say that 45% of the country will have been infected after school starts back up and then closes? We are likely at 12% or less right now. If your scenario happens we are totally fucked. The only part I can agree on is that school is likely a really bad idea.
as for the likely vectors we haven’t even attempted the school kids part yet. It’s spreading just fine with the idiots not wearing masks, 20-40 year olds, and the idiots not taking it seriously.

The density argument is stupid in general. You can count on your hands the amount of American cities that are actually dense, most of them being clustered in the northeast. Most cities in this country are suburban in design.

[BradInATX 9208]

8 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

I just think the amount of avoidance we have done (handwashing/masks/sanitizer) could have a short term adverse effect on our immune system for the various seasonal viruses we are used to encountering.  

No joke. I've got a toddler and another baby on the way and I'm pretty much planning to be sick for the first two months after we all go back into the world, day care, etc.