COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[atomheartbevo 90546]

13 hours ago, justhookit said:

as for the likely vectors we haven’t even attempted the school kids part yet. It’s spreading just fine with the idiots not wearing masks, 20-40 year olds, and the idiots not taking it seriously.

And it's spreading fairly easy in the daycares this summer.

[atomheartbevo 90546]

8 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

Starr County announces that they’ve formed a committee to determine which patients will take the few remaining hospital icu beds and the rest will be sent home. They’ve run out of space and can’t place patients in other counties.

Sounds like some kind of death panels you see in a third-world country where resources are incredibly limited.

[atomheartbevo 90546]

6 hours ago, BradInATX said:

No joke. I've got a toddler and another baby on the way and I'm pretty much planning to be sick for the first two months after we all go back into the world, day care, etc. 

I was still catching plenty of stuff from my 7 year-old pre-covid.

So yeah, you've got many years of getting sick from the kids to look forward to.

[atomheartbevo 90546]

4 hours ago, dcar00 said:

I believe the estimation of total US pop that ended up getting spanish flu was approx 1/3rd after it was over.  I'm not saying it was herd immunity but it did "end".  there was no vax. shouldn't the estimation be much higher?

It ended either because treatments got better, or it mutated to a less-lethal strain.   Malnourishment, overcrowded medical camps and hospitals, and poor hygiene, combined with mass movements and people in poor health due to WWII, all led to a huge amount of bacterial pneumonia, which killed the majority of the Spanish Flu victims.  

For all we know, covid is much more lethal and contagious than the Spanish Flu, but we just happen to be able to ramp up PPE manufacturing, and we are able to treat people with stuff that wasn't around.   

[Skipper 6406]

1 hour ago, babysdaddy said:

Dallas checking in with 413 cases today after 734 yesterday.  That was after 18 straight days over 1000.  Mask up!

Yep. Masks + bars closing + general awareness clearly resulted in cases leveling off in the 1000-1300 range (for 18 days as you mentioned) after a rapid rise to that number the latter part of June, now hopefully this is the start of the downward trend.   The flip side of this coin is Dallas reported 30 deaths today (new daily record, raising average to a little over 11 per day the last week).  Hospitalizations are also still high but appear to be leveling off as well.  While deaths are definitely increasing we did not really see the same massive jump in ICU admissions as we did in cases and hospitalizations.  Which, as I think most of us expected, indicates that this surge resulted overall in fewer "severe" cases.  I would love to see a stat on "average COVID hospital stay" calculated only on patients that were released (i.e., excluding deaths).  

[GRHorn 105]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

It ended either because treatments got better, or it mutated to a less-lethal strain.   Malnourishment, overcrowded medical camps and hospitals, and poor hygiene, combined with mass movements and people in poor health due to WWII, all led to a huge amount of bacterial pneumonia, which killed the majority of the Spanish Flu victims.  

For all we know, covid is much more lethal and contagious than the Spanish Flu, but we just happen to be able to ramp up PPE manufacturing, and we are able to treat people with stuff that wasn't around.   

Covid is more contagious than Spanish Flu? Not disputing it, it just would be much harder for a bug to make it around the world in 1918 unless it was very contagious. 

[Newdoc 3508]

And Texas with record in hospitalizations (10,983) and daily deaths (197). This mirrors what we are seeing clinically. A tad slower on new cases but infiltration into nursing homes and people coming in sicker after battling Covid for 7-10 days.

[atomheartbevo 90546]

7 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

Covid is more contagious than Spanish Flu? Not disputing it, it just would be much harder for a bug to make it around the world in 1918 unless it was very contagious. 

I don't know.  I've seen articles that say it transmits more easily, but our sanitation standards in 1918 were....lacking compared to now.  Spanish Flu happened just as WWI was wrapping up, and so it slammed a shitload of people who were already down health-wise, and then it spread when they were bringing troops back to various countries around the world, thanks to shoving shitloads of troops into large ships, who were sharing bunks/hammocks the whole way home.  They didn't have disinfectants like we did, etc.    Lot of variables.  We had a lot more rural folks back in 1918, and our cities were not as large as they are now.

Like I said, pneumonia was the largest killer, not the influenza itself.  We could handle the 1918 flu from what's been said - it may not have even been as deadly as it seems, it's just that if you got the secondary infection/pneumonia, you were absolutely fucked.

Edited July 22, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[Bevo 13825]

29 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I don't know.  I've seen articles that say it transmits more easily, but our sanitation standards in 1918 were....lacking compared to now.  Spanish Flu happened just as WWI was wrapping up, and so it slammed a shitload of people who were already down health-wise, and then it spread when they were bringing troops back to various countries around the world, thanks to shoving shitloads of troops into large ships, who were sharing bunks/hammocks the whole way home.  They didn't have disinfectants like we did, etc.    Lot of variables.  We had a lot more rural folks back in 1918, and our cities were not as large as they are now.

Like I said, pneumonia was the largest killer, not the influenza itself.  We could handle the 1918 flu from what's been said - it may not have even been as deadly as it seems, it's just that if you got the secondary infection/pneumonia, you were absolutely fucked.

Antibiotics weren't available until WWII so secondary infections were deadly.

[Bill Brasky 1617]

1 hour ago, Skipper said:

Yep. Masks + bars closing + general awareness clearly resulted in cases leveling off in the 1000-1300 range (for 18 days as you mentioned) after a rapid rise to that number the latter part of June, now hopefully this is the start of the downward trend.   The flip side of this coin is Dallas reported 30 deaths today (new daily record, raising average to a little over 11 per day the last week).  Hospitalizations are also still high but appear to be leveling off as well.  While deaths are definitely increasing we did not really see the same massive jump in ICU admissions as we did in cases and hospitalizations.  Which, as I think most of us expected, indicates that this surge resulted overall in fewer "severe" cases.  I would love to see a stat on "average COVID hospital stay" calculated only on patients that were released (i.e., excluding deaths).  

I'm sure it has nothing to do with more time passing since the peak of the riots protests 

[LebongJames 1900]

302 cases today in Austin but it looks like hospitalizations and ICU admittance is creeping higher.

[NAVY 6910]

Daily Travis update: 302

7 day moving average must be looking better. 

https://www.traviscountytx.gov/news/2020/1945-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-information

[dcar00 14902]

1 hour ago, Newdoc said:

And Texas with record in hospitalizations (10,983) and daily deaths (197). This mirrors what we are seeing clinically. A tad slower on new cases but infiltration into nursing homes and people coming in sicker after battling Covid for 7-10 days.

these rise/fall spikes seem to have a 6-8 week timespan.  Sweden just had one as well.  I think there is something to the time frame of this virus to run through a pop.  of course the masks/closing of bars will flatten spike for sure.

Edited July 22, 2020 by dcar00

[justhookit 4205]

After 3 days of pretty good numbers compared to the last 2 weeks, Corpus reported 502 new cases which is 2nd or 3rd highest total. Hopefully a blip from a batch of tests. Hospital numbers still inching up along with deaths.

[CHIEF 5201]

10 hours ago, gmr548 said:

17 hours ago, justhookit said:

This entire post is nonsense. Are you trying to say that 45% of the country will have been infected after school starts back up and then closes? We are likely at 12% or less right now. If your scenario happens we are totally fucked. The only part I can agree on is that school is likely a really bad idea.
as for the likely vectors we haven’t even attempted the school kids part yet. It’s spreading just fine with the idiots not wearing masks, 20-40 year olds, and the idiots not taking it seriously.

The density argument is stupid in general. You can count on your hands the amount of American cities that are actually dense, most of them being clustered in the northeast. Most cities in this country are suburban in design.

The density arguments are not stupid, if you look at county populations in Texas, the amount of cases breakdown right in line with population densities of the counties, with outliers such as packing plants, and proximity to the US/Mexican border. Shit, Throckmorton county wouldn't even know about COVID if it wasn't for the fucking news media.

CHIEF

[Brisketexan 106619]

Just now, CHIEF said:

The density arguments are not stupid, if you look at county populations in Texas, the amount of cases breakdown right in line with population densities of the counties, with outliers such as packing plants, and proximity to the US/Mexican border. Shit, Throckmorton county wouldn't even know about COVID if it wasn't for the fucking news media.

CHIEF

Rural is definitely going to be different, simply because of low population and super low density.  The point of the post above is that city to city, the density difference is pretty small outside of a couple of outliers like NYC.  Otherwise, Houston is LA is Seattle is Miami is Atlanta etc. -- all pretty much the same.

[Huckleberry 34407]

49 minutes ago, Bill Brasky said:

I'm sure it has nothing to do with more time passing since the peak of the riots protests 

Agreed. Days from exposure to symptoms for RiotCOVID-19 is twice or 3 times as long as regular COVID-19.

Edited July 22, 2020 by Huckleberry

[StruggleBus 3922]

San Antonio going full retard. Go spurs go!

[gmr548 16681]

49 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

The density arguments are not stupid, if you look at county populations in Texas, the amount of cases breakdown right in line with population densities of the counties, with outliers such as packing plants, and proximity to the US/Mexican border. Shit, Throckmorton county wouldn't even know about COVID if it wasn't for the fucking news media.

CHIEF

 

47 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Rural is definitely going to be different, simply because of low population and super low density.  The point of the post above is that city to city, the density difference is pretty small outside of a couple of outliers like NYC.  Otherwise, Houston is LA is Seattle is Miami is Atlanta etc. -- all pretty much the same.

This. I was explicitly comparing cities. There's a whole laundry list of reasons rural areas are inherently less impacted (until they aren't). To be fair, the quote function betrayed me so I see how that could be harder to catch,.

[rpspeed 1483]

A few numbers from my area in NE Texas

Total Positive Cases in Bowie County	543
Bowie County Patients Hospitalized locally	26
Bowie County Active Cases	286
Bowie County Patients Recovered	226
COVID-19 Deaths in Bowie County	31
Non-resident Patients Hospitalized locally	36
Total Hospitalizations	62

[Walte464 450]

Another 1000 case day in the RGV and 44 deaths

Edited July 23, 2020 by Walte464
Death

[mycox 587]

Living in Montrose bodes well from me. I just have to wait for the gay clubs to reopen.

Try ‘glory holes’ for safer sex during coronavirus, B.C. CDC says
https://globalnews.ca/news/7204384/coronavirus-glory-holes-sex/?utm_medium
 

[Hate 20232]

14 minutes ago, mycox said:

Living in Montrose bodes well from me. I just have to wait for the gay clubs to reopen.

Try ‘glory holes’ for safer sex during coronavirus, B.C. CDC says
https://globalnews.ca/news/7204384/coronavirus-glory-holes-sex/?utm_medium
 

[gmr548 16681]

Living in Montrose bodes well from me. I just have to wait for the gay clubs to reopen.
Try ‘glory holes’ for safer sex during coronavirus, B.C. CDC says
https://globalnews.ca/news/7204384/coronavirus-glory-holes-sex/?utm_medium
 

Username checks out

[BrazilHorn 6792]

Really weird blip in Travis county yesterday (I am wondering if this is some kids coming home from camp phenomena) with 20% of the daily cases being in the 10-19 age group. This is ~3X this age groups share of overall cases. Only 290 total cases yesterday (this day last week was 567 so good WoW reduction in the daily case count. The 20-29 age bracket is less than half their normal share. This combined with the 10-19 jump makes me wonder if some data entry person at TCAD didn't fast finger the info.

Age Bracket	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 7/22 vs 7/21	10	58	33	83	32	31	29	4	10	290
% of Daily Change	3.45%	20.00%	11.38%	28.62%	11.03%	10.69%	10.00%	1.38%	3.45%
% of Total Cases	2.66%	7.73%	27.41%	21.83%	16.40%	11.64%	6.43%	3.32%	2.60%	18,597

[BradInATX 9208]

35 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Really weird blip in Travis county yesterday (I am wondering if this is some kids coming home from camp phenomena) with 20% of the daily cases being in the 10-19 age group. This is ~3X this age groups share of overall cases. Only 290 total cases yesterday (this day last week was 567 so good WoW reduction in the daily case count. The 20-29 age bracket is less than half their normal share. This combined with the 10-19 jump makes me wonder if some data entry person at TCAD didn't fast finger the info.

Age Bracket	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 7/22 vs 7/21	10	58	33	83	32	31	29	4	10	290
% of Daily Change	3.45%	20.00%	11.38%	28.62%	11.03%	10.69%	10.00%	1.38%	3.45%
% of Total Cases	2.66%	7.73%	27.41%	21.83%	16.40%	11.64%	6.43%	3.32%	2.60%	18,597

 

Maybe a couple of Mormon families got their kids tested.

[atomheartbevo 90546]

This is actually not bad, but then again, how many babies were tested?

https://www.kxan.com/investigations/more-than-90-babies-have-tested-positive-for-covid-19-in-travis-county-austin-public-health-reports/

Quote

Austin Public Health reported 93 babies have tested positive for COVID-19 between April 9 and July 22 in Travis County. 

Quote

Williamson County said it has had 97 positive cases since March among kids up to 5-years-old. A county spokesperson said the number is too small to release under 1 year for health information protection reasons.  

Quote

“I think since the recommendations to test newborns in the hospital to COVID-positive moms went into effect, you know a little over two months ago, we have been seeing more newborns test positive,” explained Dr. Leighton Ellis, pediatrician at North Austin Pediatrics. 

Quote

“1-year-olds, 2-year-olds that came in, and usually the situation is they have a cold, maybe they had a parent contact, and you check them and lo and behold, they’re surprised that they’re positive,” said Dr. Ellis. “Most babies are going to be okay if they get this, but you never know if you’re going to be that one case that gets really sick.” 

 

[Paper_jam 846]

The Texas Tribune coronavirus site is showing a big drop in hospitalized cases today (from well over 10,000 to 8858). I don't know if 1500+ patients were discharged since yesterday, or if it's just something glitchy in the reporting for today. Anyone know?

 

[scottsins 2040]

21 minutes ago, Paper_jam said:

The Texas Tribune coronavirus site is showing a big drop in hospitalized cases today (from well over 10,000 to 8858). I don't know if 1500+ patients were discharged since yesterday, or if it's just something glitchy in the reporting for today. Anyone know?

 

They all died.

[Bevo 13825]

2 minutes ago, scottsins said:

They all died.

Exactly. Game over.

[InkaUtexas 26800]

52 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

This is actually not bad, but then again, how many babies were tested?

https://www.kxan.com/investigations/more-than-90-babies-have-tested-positive-for-covid-19-in-travis-county-austin-public-health-reports/

 

Lock em down. 

[GRHorn 105]

Some interesting SA notes here. Over the last week hospitalized patients down about 8%, although icu patient numbers the same. Vented patients down 3% from the peak. 
 

In house PCR testing for one system had positivity rate of 12%. That’s much lower than the peak.  
 

Also rural patient numbers from surrounding counties all down as well. 

[Walte464 450]

I’m getting tired of doing this at this point, 1121 cases and 49 deaths in Cameron and Hidalgo county

 

 

Edited July 24, 2020 by Walte464
Pics

[Anastasis 23699]

ATX back solidly in stage 4.  Keep wearing masks you fucking heathens. 

[Texas Jeff 1998]

3 hours ago, Paper_jam said:

The Texas Tribune coronavirus site is showing a big drop in hospitalized cases today (from well over 10,000 to 8858). I don't know if 1500+ patients were discharged since yesterday, or if it's just something glitchy in the reporting for today. Anyone know?

It's shenanigans ... something changed at the fed level that caused some Texas hospitals to stop reporting to DSHS.

From the DSHS covid tracking page:

"DSHS is reporting incomplete hospitalization numbers today due to a transition in reporting to comply with new federal requirements. For July 23, 84.5 percent of hospitals reported complete data to DSHS, resulting in a partial data set and the appearance of a drop in hospitalizations. DSHS continues to work with Texas hospitals during this transition to ensure all facilities can fully report the data required."

Edited July 24, 2020 by Texas Jeff

[Walte464 450]

Oh great, now we’ll get incomplete numbers and everyone is going to believe the virus went away. Strap your shoes up for a fun fall when people let their guard down.

[Anastasis 23699]

How HHS’s new hospital data reporting system will actually affect the U.S. Covid-19 response

https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/16/hospital-data-reporting-covid-19/

 

[justhookit 4205]

3 hours ago, Walte464 said:

I’m getting tired of doing this at this point, 1121 cases and 49 deaths in Cameron and Hidalgo county

 

 

You are paying attention so is there any idea of whether the large death numbers include people coming from Mexico to get treated? The death percentage is way too high for their population and number of cases.

that said, the RGV seems to be a clusterfuck. Corpus isn’t far behind. We are back up in new cases the last 2 days after going down for 3 days. Hopefully this is the July 4th spike and next week we will start going down again.

[Walte464 450]

11 minutes ago, justhookit said:

You are paying attention so is there any idea of whether the large death numbers include people coming from Mexico to get treated? The death percentage is way too high for their population and number of cases.

that said, the RGV seems to be a clusterfuck. Corpus isn’t far behind. We are back up in new cases the last 2 days after going down for 3 days. Hopefully this is the July 4th spike and next week we will start going down again.

They aren’t giving a direct correlation of Mexican nationals vs American citizens on these numbers. This is a photo I took of the Alamo Flea Market today, it doesn’t really change my mindset that these cases are all correlated to the valley region. 

 

Edited July 24, 2020 by Walte464
Puc

[justhookit 4205]

Jesus.

[justhookit 4205]

19 minutes ago, Walte464 said:

They aren’t giving a direct correlation of Mexican nationals vs American citizens on these numbers. This is a photo I took of the Alamo Flea Market today, it doesn’t really change my mindset that these cases are all correlated to the valley region. 

 

Whoever is in charge down there needs to shut that shit down right now. Cameron was able to do the beach restrictions so why is Hidalgo allowing that to go on?

[Walte464 450]

1 minute ago, justhookit said:

Whoever is in charge down there needs to shut that shit down right now. Cameron was able to do the beach restrictions so why is Hidalgo allowing that to go on?

Judge Cortez did a shelter in place that would take effect yesterday,  Wednesday 7/22, Abbott’s office declared that he had “no enforcement mechanism”. Abbott has completely handicapped the leaders of south Texas, allowing this pandemic to run rampant.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.texastribune.org/2020/07/20/hidalgo-county-coronavirus-emergency-order-gov-greg-abbott/amp/

[washparkhorn 9967]

Texas and the West need to slow this train down. 

 

 

 

2

Spoiler

 

California, sans Huntington Beach, is retightening. I get the sense that metro areas of Texas are retightening. The West and Texas stopped the Eastward bound version in California and Texas. Now Texas is getting the Westward bound wave from the NE/NY variant of this virus. 

If the national tone does not match what you see in Texas - remember DC is on a different timeline than the South, Texas, and the West. This NY variant of this virus hit the Northeast hard. DC weathered it. The Midwest endured it. They are in the trough right now. Texas and the West are on the face of the wave - wanting it to peak and begin flattening.

It's like looking at a flood gage and wondering when it would level off. Dropping is the goal.  But leveling off is the first thing we need to see in this wave. 

The West and the Mountains need Texas to hold that door. It would be great if you stopped transmission of the virus, but that may be next to impossible. The rest of the West can tamp down this gnarled virus if Texas holds the door.

Masks reduce the number of serious cases and deaths. Every time we can prevent infection, we reduce death, despair, and economic damage. This is the second wave for the West. This time it is coming from the other direction. God speed to you all. 

Signed,

The West

 

 

[justhookit 4205]

23 minutes ago, Walte464 said:

Judge Cortez did a shelter in place that would take effect yesterday,  Wednesday 7/22, Abbott’s office declared that he had “no enforcement mechanism”. Abbott has completely handicapped the leaders of south Texas, allowing this pandemic to run rampant.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.texastribune.org/2020/07/20/hidalgo-county-coronavirus-emergency-order-gov-greg-abbott/amp/

Yeah but as far as I know Abbott still has an order in effect prohibiting outdoor gatherings in excess of 10. This moves fast so I may be wrong. The flea market would clearly be in violation. I know there were exceptions, but I doubt a flea market is one of them.

Edited July 24, 2020 by justhookit

[washparkhorn 9967]

1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

How HHS’s new hospital data reporting system will actually affect the U.S. Covid-19 response

https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/16/hospital-data-reporting-covid-19/

 

FUBAR

[washparkhorn 9967]

If the order is valid, it requires enforcement. How you do it is beyond me. 

[justhookit 4205]

Yes, there’s that issue. 

‘Our County Judge here in Nueces closed the beaches to vehicle traffic again. The city and county set up sand dunes on beach access roads. Local police are enforcing it and we have a little DPS help. Its not a perfect solution but it’s working. I’m guessing the Hidalgo County judge could figure out a way to shut that flea market down if he wanted to.

[williemackgarza 1826]

I’m getting tired of doing this at this point, 1121 cases and 49 deaths in Cameron and Hidalgo county
 


 

Thank u for doing these valley updates. I like seeing the info

[washparkhorn 9967]

Yes - he could. If that is a vector for infection, it should be modified to meet public health standards. The operators should have already implemented rules to prevent infection. Public Nuisance laws already on the books should provide enforcement mechanisms. 

[Guest Lobo]

4 hours ago, justhookit said:

 

‘Our County Judge here in Nueces closed the beaches to vehicle traffic again. The city and county set up sand dunes on beach access roads. Local police are enforcing it and we have a little DPS help. Its not a perfect solution but it’s working. I’m guessing the Hidalgo County judge could figure out a way to shut that flea market down if he wanted to.

Rule #37 of a Pandemic:  Don't bring sand to the beach.