COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[Texas Jeff 1,998]

All numbers that I track in Travis County are headed in the right direction.  They are about 4x higher than they were in May but are declining.  It will take a big decline just to get back to May levels.  Texas as a whole is starting to level out but not drop yet.

In April and June, we had this really long plateau where things were not getting worse but they were not getting better.  We will see where the current numbers settle, but hopefully they just keep sinking lower and lower and do not plateau.  What we are doing is working but complacency will kill the trend.

 

Edited July 25, 2020 by Texas Jeff

[Brisketexan 106,618]

Some people are just stupid cunts.

This. I love complex systems and analysis, but these days, so many things are answered this simply and clearly.

[Gatorubet 30,629]

Some people are just stupid cunts.

[Walte464 450]

RGV is going to be in a very very very bad place in 2-3 weeks with hurricane Hanna tracking this way. There is going to be major flooding and random people helping others in the flood without mask.

[BrazilHorn 6,792]

Here are the daily cases by age cohort for Travis County. Big jumps in the younger ranges again vs the regular average. I am wondering again if this is just result of more families getting tested, parents getting kids tested in advance of camp, or kids returning from camp that are infected. To have ~27% of daily cases be <19 years old is a big jump vs normal share. This is around the 3rd time in past week this has happened. One other cohort that I am not showing today but assuming it is on chart again tomorrow from TCAD is the 0-1 bucket. They were present in numbers, then appeared to not be and today showed back up. There are 103 infants 0-1 years old in Travis County that have had Covid. If they leave the 0-1 cohort in data set I will start showing daily change for this grouping as well.

Age Bracket	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 7/24 vs 7/23	20	39	43	40	30	23	14	4	10	223
% of Daily Change	8.97%	17.49%	19.28%	17.94%	13.45%	10.31%	6.28%	1.79%	4.48%
% of Total Cases	2.74%	7.87%	27.38%	21.78%	16.34%	11.55%	6.40%	3.32%	2.62%	19,062

[dingleberryswitzer 2,724]

1 hour ago, Armybrat said:

Some people are just stupid cunts.

New surly motto. 

[dcar00 14,902]

1 hour ago, Texas Jeff said:

All numbers that I track in Travis County are headed in the right direction.  They are about 4x higher than they were in May but are declining.  It will take a big decline just to get back to May levels.  Texas as a whole is starting to level out but not drop yet.

In April and June, we had this really long plateau where things were not getting worse but they were not getting better.  We will see where the current numbers settle, but hopefully they just keep sinking lower and lower and do not plateau.  What we are doing is working but complacency will kill the trend.

 

Sweden had a similar situation on cases,  plateau then spike.  the interesting thing is that their deaths still dropped off a cliff even accounting for the lag.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

[Mitch Cumsteen 18,913]

4 hours ago, LebongJames said:

I haven’t tracked the whole state but also saw Bexar was down 10% in hospitalizations.

Definitely looking up, but San Antonio has also seen its two deadliest days yet on Thursday and Friday, with 15 deaths each day.

Still, the numbers seem to be getting better, but man... they got really out of whack with their reporting so it's hard to make any sense out of it. *Only* 299 new cases yesterday, the lowest it's been in about a month, seems like great news, but shit... they could easily report 1200 cases tomorrow. Look at the spikes in the chart below.  When you dump a backload of 2000+ cases twice in one week, you damn well better start trending the other way once they don't figure into your 7 day average anymore.

 

[CowboyFred 1,162]

19 hours ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

I was assuming they caught it in Mexico, if they’re coming here for treatment.

Can confirm a buddy went to Tulum about a week ago and was forced to take a covid test when he got back (not sure if family or what) but he and 2 others of the 8 that went came back positive.  

[atomheartbevo 90,545]

5 hours ago, Rougarou said:

I just simply don't understand how people can't just put a mask on and deal with it and then take it off as soon as you are out. I saw a video of a lady being kicked off a flight-- a first class seat-- because she couldn't begrudgingly put on a mask for a 30 minutes. I don't understand the whole "die on the hill" mentality of anything.

They will put on a seatbelt every single fucking day so they don't get a ticket, they will keep their open can of beer out of sight when in traffic (or disguised).

But a piece of fabric on their face.  Too far.

[Johnny Sack 8,397]

Are you people still seeing people indoors without masks?

[bschoolprof 6,335]

I can’t see anything really because I pull my mask over above my eyes to protect from the rona. I have to feel my way around, like a blind man at a gang bang.

[3adays 454]

It seems like with bars closed people are packing the restaurants to get their booze on.
I’ve noticed several north Austin restaurants with full parking lots. No way these fledgling businesses are keeping them at 50%.

[XYZ 2,154]

2 hours ago, Johnny Sack said:

Are you people still seeing people indoors without masks?

At workplaces, yes. Either mask off until somebody from the outside walks in and then they put the mask on, or the idiot way (mask below the nose).

[atomheartbevo 90,545]

34 minutes ago, 3adays said:

It seems like with bars closed people are packing the restaurants to get their booze on.
I’ve noticed several north Austin restaurants with full parking lots. No way these fledgling businesses are keeping them at 50%.

On the one hand, congrats to them for not drinking alone and sliding into a depression that sees them deepthroating a Glock.

On the other hand, they are still going to fuck us.

[Bevo 13,824]

1 hour ago, bschoolprof said:

I can’t see anything really because I pull my mask over above my eyes to protect from the rona. I have to feel my way around, like a blind man at a gang bang.

super dangerous. no thanks.

[FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2,649]

1 hour ago, 3adays said:

It seems like with bars closed people are packing the restaurants to get their booze on.
I’ve noticed several north Austin restaurants with full parking lots. No way these fledgling businesses are keeping them at 50%.

Indoor dining really needs to be shut down if we are going to get this under control.  Even if places are theoretically following the 50% I don’t see how it doesn’t spread throughout the restaurant with a single cough. 

[Sawbonz 28,081]

14 minutes ago, Xian said:

Indoor dining really needs to be shut down if we are going to get this under control.  Even if places are theoretically following the 50% I don’t see how it doesn’t spread throughout the restaurant with a single cough. 

This virus gets dispersed via large respiratory droplets, which are heavier than air, meaning the droplets fall to the ground within a few feet of the person coughing. 
 

Unless the restaurant is allowing intubations and bronchoscopies in the dining area you should be fine. 
 

** or if an asthmatic breaks out their nebulizer

Edited July 25, 2020 by Sawbonz

[Guest Lobo]

actually watch where you sit in a restaurant.  Be between the HVAC vent and the table next to you, not on the other side of a table under the hVAC/fan.  

I also saw an outdoor patio with the misting system on the other day.  Those people should just be rounded up and shot.  

[FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2,649]

13 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

This virus gets dispersed via large respiratory droplets, which are heavier than air, meaning the droplets fall to the ground within a few feet of the person coughing. 
 

Unless the restaurant is allowing intubations and bronchoscopies in the dining area you should be fine. 
 

** or if an asthmatic breaks out their nebulizer

Per The University of Texas, this is false.

 

 

Another link

Edited July 26, 2020 by Xian

[Bevo 13,824]

I didn't like this part of the article, "Coronaviruses are not new to medical professionals, Weaver added—but the recently published paper showed this one survives for longer than previous coronaviruses". They share so much homology and are approximately the same size and shape with the same outer membrane that this seems dubious.

[Sawbonz 28,081]

29 minutes ago, Xian said:

Per The University of Texas, this is false.

 

 

Another link

Coughing does not aerosolize the virus, and while speaking and breathing might, the viral load would be negligible, otherwise it would be orders of magnitude more infectious than it is. Singing could be an issue though. I wouldn’t go on karaoke night.
 

Nothing in either link suggests what I posted is wrong. 
 

Not sure why the font is all fucked up in the quote but from the first link

when suspended in the air in an aerosol.

 

The 3 examples I gave in my post would be significant aerosolization events

 

Edited July 26, 2020 by Sawbonz

[XYZ 2,154]

“orders of magnitude”? What, like, one?

[Sawbonz 28,081]

11 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I didn't like this part of the article, "Coronaviruses are not new to medical professionals, Weaver added—but the recently published paper showed this one survives for longer than previous coronaviruses". They share so much homology and are approximately the same size and shape with the same outer membrane that this seems dubious.

The article says aerosolized virus particles can live in the air. And that is true, but outside of medical procedures on an infected patient you aren’t going to encounter much aerosolization.  Highly unlikely at a restaurant with appropriate spacing 

[Sawbonz 28,081]

9 minutes ago, XYZ said:

“orders of magnitude”? What, like, one?

Maybe just a half order

[atomheartbevo 90,545]

3 hours ago, bschoolprof said:

I can’t see anything really because I pull my mask over above my eyes to protect from the rona. I have to feel my way around, like a blind man at a gang bang.

1 hour ago, Bevo said:

super dangerous. no thanks.

It's not that dangerous.  Yeah, some things might happen...

 

[BradInATX 9,208]

5 hours ago, Johnny Sack said:

Are you people still seeing people indoors without masks?

We were furniture shopping today, saw 100% mask usage save one dude. He walked into a place that had an eye-level bright red sign with a picture of a mask on it that said masks required, we will provide one if you don't have one. He threw a very slight passive aggressive fit that nobody handed him a mask as he walked in, but fairly quickly knew his role and shut his mouth when Schon, who I'm pretty sure is the president of the Gay Middle-Aged Salesman at the Bourgeoisie Furniture Store Association gave him one . Otherwise, pretty good, couple of sales guys with masks below their noses, but nothing too bad.

 

3 hours ago, 3adays said:

It seems like with bars closed people are packing the restaurants to get their booze on.
I’ve noticed several north Austin restaurants with full parking lots. No way these fledgling businesses are keeping them at 50%.

I didn't see any of this and we were out and about. We ate on the patio of Tumble 22 at peak lunch (12:30) and there was one other couple out there, 40 feet from us. The curbside at Tacodeli in the same strip mall was insane, but I didn't see any crowds at any place from River Place to Allandale to Round rock and back. 

Austin has been pretty on-point lately, thus the nice sharp downward trend we're seeing. Good stuff.  Also Tumble 22 is worth the hype. Really good.

Edited July 26, 2020 by BradInATX

[Bevo 13,824]

Saw a hot chick with a "Keep Your Distance and Smile" shirt on at the 620/Anderson Mill HEB. Tried tripping my son so he would bump into her, but they had those 6ft separation lines so he just fell to the ground. She did look my way though.

[BradInATX 9,208]

2 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Tried tripping my son so he would bump into her, but they had those 6ft separation lines so he just fell to the ground.

What a pussy

[Bevo 13,824]

2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

What a pussy

Yeah, his mom pushing the cart behind us was pissed.

[Anastasis 23,699]

15 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Austin has been pretty on-point lately, thus the nice sharp downward trend we're seeing. Good stuff. 

Loving what I am seeing in the numbers.  If but for Tuesday we would be looking pretty damn good. Tuesday's suck. 

[atomheartbevo 90,545]

Covid killed one of the Houston Mass Murder killers back in May - the Brooks guy mentioned in this article.  He was 45 years into a life sentence.

So there is one positive thing out of this.  The only positive thing.

[BradInATX 9,208]

Loving what I am seeing in the numbers.  If but for Tuesday we would be looking pretty damn good. Tuesday's suck. 

Maybe they'll open our effing breweries back up

[Rougarou 594]

6 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

They will put on a seatbelt every single fucking day so they don't get a ticket, they will keep their open can of beer out of sight when in traffic (or disguised).

But a piece of fabric on their face.  Too far.

And these aren’t just the poor; this lady was in first class. I fly 100,000 miles a year minimum....and I get first class maybe 60-70% of the time. So this lady isn’t some Spirit Airlines poor person. Ostensibly she has her life together in other respects (financial, career, etc.). You just think why would someone die on the hill of a mask when you can just smile, nod put the mask on and then pull it down maybe 10 or 15 minutes later. 

[Mac8111 2,129]

I’ve got a friend who tested positive in early July. He’s fine, just lost sense of smell and taste.


Today his wife makes one of those posts “ This is why everyone needs to wear a mask!!! we were just becoming a Covid free House and now one of our daughters tested positive. Now we are in round 2. This is so awful”


Meanwhile, in the last six weeks they hosted a graduation Party at their house, a gender reveal party at their house, and there are at least three check in’s of them at bars with several groups of friends and there is not one mask in any single pic they posted during those events.


Funny thing is that when the Houston Rodeo was first cancelled, he posted a bunch of shit talking about the Mayor.


Some people will never get it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,963]

I’ve got a friend who tested positive in early July. He’s fine, just lost sense of smell and taste.


Today his wife makes one of those posts “ This is why everyone needs to wear a mask!!! we were just becoming a Covid free House and now one of our daughters tested positive. Now we are in round 2. This is so awful”


Meanwhile, in the last six weeks they hosted a graduation Party at their house, a gender reveal party at their house, and there are at least three check in’s of them at bars with several groups of friends and there is not one mask in any single pic they posted during those events.


Funny thing is that when the Houston Rodeo was first cancelled, he posted a bunch of shit talking about the Mayor.


Some people will never get it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Sheesh.. One kid moving to college and another kid being born later this year?

What gender was the baby?

[Judge Roybeanbag 11,856]

50 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Sheesh.. One kid moving to college and another kid being born later this year?

What gender was the baby?

Blonde.

[B00M 6,725]

7 hours ago, Mac8111 said:

I’ve got a friend who tested positive in early July. He’s fine, just lost sense of smell and taste.


Today his wife makes one of those posts “ This is why everyone needs to wear a mask!!! we were just becoming a Covid free House and now one of our daughters tested positive. Now we are in round 2. This is so awful”

Meanwhile, in the last six weeks they hosted a graduation Party at their house, a gender reveal party at their house, and there are at least three check in’s of them at bars with several groups of friends and there is not one mask in any single pic they posted during those events...

Some people will never get it.

 

Or they'll get it multiple times

[VolenteHawk 495]

11 hours ago, BradInATX said:

I didn't see any of this and we were out and about. We ate on the patio of Tumble 22 at peak lunch (12:30) and there was one other couple out there, 40 feet from us. The curbside at Tacodeli in the same strip mall was insane, but I didn't see any crowds at any place from River Place to Allandale to Round rock and back. 

Austin has been pretty on-point lately, thus the nice sharp downward trend we're seeing. Good stuff.  Also Tumble 22 is worth the hype. Really good.

I’m guessing you didn’t glance at the Twin Peaks parking lot as you drove by...that place looked like a total shitshow when I passed it yesterday.

It seems like most places that are busy are the neighborhood B&G type places. You close a couple dive bars and those regulars congregate in whatever joint is close and meets the 51% criteria.

[StruggleBus 3,922]

1 hour ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Sheesh.. One kid moving to college and another kid being born later this year?
 

Man I truly think I'd have a mental breakdown if that happened to me

[BrazilHorn 6,792]

Here is a chart that shows over the last 2 weeks the daily change in case count by age cohort. Basically taking the daily views I have been sending and putting them in chart form in stack bar with connectors. If you see the connectors open the cohorts share of a given day is increasing (opposite if lines close). You can see some interesting trends pop within certain date ranges. 10-19 this past week eg. I Set as a 100% stack bar as that allows you to more easily see the variance between the age cohorts vs a regular stack bar. Each age cohort's daily case count is labeled.

[BradInATX 9,208]

Here is a chart that shows over the last 2 weeks the daily change in case count by age cohort. Basically taking the daily views I have been sending and putting them in chart form in stack bar with connectors. If you see the connectors open the cohorts share of a given day is increasing (opposite if lines close). You can see some interesting trends pop within certain date ranges. 10-19 this past week eg. I Set as a 100% stack bar as that allows you to more easily see the variance between the age cohorts vs a regular stack bar. Each age cohort's daily case count is labeled.

Nice. Are those bars the counts per day? Or an average/rolling? Interesting that the 40-49 group is the only one still increasing.

 

[BrazilHorn 6,792]

8 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Nice. Are those bars the counts per day? Or an average/rolling? Interesting that the 40-49 group is the only one still increasing.

 

The bars are the change in cases per day by each age cohort. Helps to see on a daily basis where things are popping.

[XYZ 2,154]

7 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Here is a chart that shows over the last 2 weeks the daily change in case count by age cohort. Basically taking the daily views I have been sending and putting them in chart form in stack bar with connectors. If you see the connectors open the cohorts share of a given day is increasing (opposite if lines close). You can see some interesting trends pop within certain date ranges. 10-19 this past week eg. I Set as a 100% stack bar as that allows you to more easily see the variance between the age cohorts vs a regular stack bar. Each age cohort's daily case count is labeled.

No offense, but I think you are wasting your time with these charts. First, it seems that the covid tests have a high degree of false results. Second, there are many anecdotal accounts of labs giving people impossible results. Third, sometimes they are taking many days to process the tests. Hospitalizations are real. Test results are bullshit.

[smoky 842]

Is it possible to break up the teenage bracket?

There's a world of difference between a 10 year old and a 19 year old.

[BrazilHorn 6,792]

I started tracking deaths by age cohort on a WoW basis (is how Travis County shows it). 60+ is still 82% of all deaths. If you are young and going out stay away from grandparents unless you hate them. This is only three weeks of data and is a line chart that shows W/E 7/11, 7/18 & 7/25 in terms of Total Deaths by Age Group. This is not the change in deaths but rather the total. W/E 7/11 eg there were 168 total deaths in Travis County, w/e 7/25 there are 241.

I still don't know why the 20-29 number dropped from 3 to 2. All I can figure is data error on TCAD side. ~48% of the increase in deaths from 7/11 have been in the 80 yo + age group. From a total mortality perspective there have been 503 people 80 yo+ that have tested positive for CV19 & 93 of them have died so ~18.4%. (off 2.6% total cases). You can see by the peak up in W/e 7/25 that 60-69 & 80+ died at higher clip than prior week.

Stay away from the olds. If you are old (Hi Armybrat) stay away from your kids/grandkids at stay home. If you are old with an underlying condition (Hi Mom) you are taking your life absolutely in your own hands if you go out/mingle with the world.

[BrazilHorn 6,792]

4 minutes ago, smoky said:

Is it possible to break up the teenage bracket?

There's a world of difference between a 10 year old and a 19 year old.

They don't break it out that way. the <1 bracket just started to show the past two days (waiting to get more info on it to add to dailies, but there are also 103 kids <1 year that have tested positive)

[Walte464 450]

RGV is going to be in a very very very bad place in 2-3 weeks with hurricane Hanna tracking this way. There is going to be major flooding and random people helping others in the flood without mask.

 

was busy with Hanna to post this last night, Hidalgo doesn’t post on saturdays. 341 people tested positive in Cameron with 8 deaths.

[Guest]

49 minutes ago, smoky said:

Is it possible to break up the teenage bracket?

There's a world of difference between a 10 year old and a 19 year old.

[GreenspointTexas 9,933]

After looking good for the last 7-8 days, Houston just had their single highest increase in ventilated patients over the past 24 hrs. Largest increase since the start of the pandemic.

 Also, we still have lots of vents, but are down to the lowest supply since the pandemic began.
 

Based on timing, most of these are 4th of july patients