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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

justhookit

By justhookit
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whithou
whithou

It has been a disheartening journey and it is only starting. I did not realize how there really is no definitive treatment for the illness until we got COVID patients. When they first come on our unit

South Austin
South Austin

He didn't get COVID.  He just ran out of immunity.

safe sex
safe sex

I cannot stress this enough for anyone who lives in Austin (although this really applies to pretty much everywhere at this point) BE SAFE. What this means is don't get on your motorcycles. D

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Rougarou

Rougarou 594

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I forget which poster it was, so forgive me for not giving you the credit, but I agree that the playbook has been written. Virus is out of control; everyone pull it back in and masks and closures, etc. It starts to get better, people get more lax and it gets bad again. This will be the cycle until Feb/March when a non-Chinese vaccine is ready.

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bluto

bluto 4894

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Been to the gym during non peak times a few times over the last month or two. Once mask ban hit everybody was good, only a couple noses exposed. Now it’s 50/50 on ppl wearing them at all. Rare occasion an employee will make the rounds as a reminder.

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9935

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There is an ebb and flow to this virus. It repeats a pattern. Looks like head and shoulders pattern on a stock chart. I hope this is the head for the West and Southwest. Second wave. Slow it down, then test loosening, another flare and then hopefully stabilized - with only community outbreaks. We need this wave to plateau. Hold the Door Texas. God speed. 

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TexasEd

TexasEd 8064

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On 7/25/2020 at 4:33 PM, bschoolprof said:

I can’t see anything really because I pull my mask over above my eyes to protect from the rona. I have to feel my way around, like a blind man at a gang bang.

Just wear glasses and breathing in the mask will fog them up.  Same effect.

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gmr548

gmr548 16517

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Saw a hot chick with a "Keep Your Distance and Smile" shirt on at the 620/Anderson Mill HEB. Tried tripping my son so he would bump into her, but they had those 6ft separation lines so he just fell to the ground. She did look my way though.
A worthy sacrifice
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MNLonghornFUKM

MNLonghornFUKM 8799

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I forget which poster it was, so forgive me for not giving you the credit, but I agree that the playbook has been written. Virus is out of control; everyone pull it back in and masks and closures, etc. It starts to get better, people get more lax and it gets bad again. This will be the cycle until Feb/March when a non-Chinese vaccine is ready.

What happens when Texas/California & Florida cool their tits? Nobody in the country comes close to being able to produce 10k cases a day
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Rougarou

Rougarou 594

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22 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

There is an ebb and flow to this virus. It repeats a pattern. Looks like head and shoulders pattern on a stock chart. I hope this is the head for the West and Southwest. Second wave. Slow it down, then test loosening, another flare and then hopefully stabilized - with only community outbreaks. We need this wave to plateau. Hold the Door Texas. God speed. 

Agree.

We need our leaders to reverse engineer a strategy by going backwards from March 2021 to October 2020 (realistic timeline for implementing any strategy). That's the 6 month, last mile, of this thing (if vaccine news is to be trusted) and you get people singing off the same sheet of music as we head into holiday season where there will not be social distancing from November-January 2nd.

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6576

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Added in the <1 year old age bracket as I now have a couple of days to compare it (and to make sure TCAD didn't pull it). Very low daily case increase. Tuesdays are the normal big dump day so we will see what happens. ~120 fewer cases vs this day last week so that is good movement. Only noticeable outlier for the day is in the 70-79 year old bracket with 8 cases (~10% of daily total - this is 3x this brackets normal showing). Area of concern given high death numbers for this bracket. (24% of all deaths in Travis County are from 70-79 bracket vs 3.3% of cases)

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 7/26 vs 7/25 0 3 5 24 14 12 7 3 8 3 79
% of Daily Change 0.00% 3.80% 6.33% 30.38% 17.72% 15.19% 8.86% 3.80% 10.13% 3.80%  
% of Total Cases 0.53% 2.74% 7.82% 27.23% 21.62% 16.31% 11.46% 6.37% 3.32% 2.60% 19,478
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justhookit

justhookit 4182

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4 hours ago, gmr548 said:
13 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

What happens when Texas/California & Florida cool their tits? Nobody in the country comes close to being able to produce 10k cases a day

They probably reopen and start doing it again

This. And I have a feeling a bunch of states will take our place by mid-August and September. Look for the next Texas spike in October.

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justhookit

justhookit 4182

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19 hours ago, NAVY said:

I realize it’s Sunday and everything, but Austin/Travis sub-100. Hell yeah! 
 

https://www.traviscountytx.gov/news/2020/1945-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-information

 

85B2E89A-F8E1-43E2-BB65-AB2F0B0CBF53.jpeg

Yup, Corpus went sub 100 for the first time in about a month. Only the 3rd time below 200 in 3 weeks. Curious about today and the rest of the week but we are definitely headed the right direction. Finally.

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elfenix

elfenix 34172

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Posted (edited)
On 7/24/2020 at 3:08 PM, Johnny Sack said:

I am not saying don't count illegals who live here.  I am saying don't count Mexican residents who just came over for treatment.  I have no idea how many are doing so.  I know it is greater than zero.  We might find out it is only a small percentage of our border county deaths.  Or it could be half of them.  I would like to know.

hildalgo county's chief admin officer for health & human services said they haven't seen an influx in people coming over on houston matters on friday.  it's the first interview on the show, question is about 10 minutes in.   the valley is bad because people haven't been masking/distancing and have had social gatherings with extended family, also it's a poor and un/underinsured area.

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Pimphand

Pimphand 5599

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2 hours ago, justhookit said:

Nah, whoever spikes in August and September will “lock back down” and have it back under control in October. We are in the lather, rinse, repeat cycle of covid now with each state on its own timeline.

That has always been my point once TX started blowing up.  We'd have it burn through the state like it did NY/NJ in March/April then it would start trending down.  Of course I was neg bombed for the insinuation that it needed to burn through the populace at this juncture.  Thankfully TX hospitals have proven to be orders of magnitude better at managing care than the northeastern counterparts.

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justhookit

justhookit 4182

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15 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

That has always been my point once TX started blowing up.  We'd have it burn through the state like it did NY/NJ in March/April then it would start trending down.  Of course I was neg bombed for the insinuation that it needed to burn through the populace at this juncture.  Thankfully TX hospitals have proven to be orders of magnitude better at managing care than the northeastern counterparts.

That not at all what I am saying. I’m not surprised you were neg-bombed

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SHOOTER12

SHOOTER12 8789

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On 7/20/2020 at 12:27 PM, BonzoMontreaux said:

Son-in-law was positive a couple of weeks back.  He has to have two negative results before going back to work.  Still waiting on second negative result.  I am just glad he is getting paid on his time off.  On a side note, because of contact with SIL and daughter and grand kids, we have been locked down during that time as well.  Wife got tested - negative.  She was running low grade fever and dealing with allergies but didn't want to just assume that's what it was.  We were actually wanting a positive result if her mild allergy symptoms were indeed from Covid-19. 

 

 

 

Good luck.  I just found out today that we still have 2 employees out for extended periods of time, both still testing positive.  One has been out 12 weeks, the other 16 weeks.  I think there are still a lot of unknowns when it comes to the sneaky little bastard known as Covid19.

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Telegraph_it

Telegraph_it 3354

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27 minutes ago, SHOOTER12 said:

Good luck.  I just found out today that we still have 2 employees out for extended periods of time, both still testing positive.  One has been out 12 weeks, the other 16 weeks.  I think there are still a lot of unknowns when it comes to the sneaky little bastard known as Covid19.

Damn. My grandfather tested positive for 9.5 weeks without symptoms before he got three negative tests in 48 hours and was admitted back into assisted living. 

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26286

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1 hour ago, SHOOTER12 said:

Good luck.  I just found out today that we still have 2 employees out for extended periods of time, both still testing positive.  One has been out 12 weeks, the other 16 weeks.  I think there are still a lot of unknowns when it comes to the sneaky little bastard known as Covid19.

Man, this fucking thing. 

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25524

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1 hour ago, LebongJames said:

Another good day in Austin. 240 cases finally dropped below 100 on vents down to 140 in ICU and 390 hospitalizations 

love the good news. But just sound of Travis our numbers are way off. We went from 100+ a day to about 40-45, and then today rebounded back up to 70+. 

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Texas Jeff

Texas Jeff 1932

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Trends are good but we have a long way to go.  If you look at other examples around the world, the outbreak rise time is shorter than the fall time.  In Travis we have to eliminate 80% of the today's disease level we have now just to get back to April/May levels.  And April/May levels set us up for June when things got out of hand.

Hopefully we get back to April/May levels (about 50 cases per day for Travis Co).  Hopefully people keep their masks on and avoid crowds.  Hopefully some folks now have antibodies to help out.  Then, we have a chance to contain it and be rid of it.  Take your foot off the brake too soon and we will be right back here again.  Transmission may jump with cooler weather and there is no guarantee of a vaccine.

I know that's a bunch of gloom but we do see trends turning in our direction.  We have the power to make this go away, but we need to maintain the will.

 

 

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6576

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Travis county breakout by age. 50+ brackets for yesterday has a slight uptick vs their share of total cases overall.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 7/27 vs 7/26 0 4 11 66 50 40 34 17 7 11 240
% of Daily Change 0.00% 1.67% 4.58% 27.50% 20.83% 16.67% 14.17% 7.08% 2.92% 4.58%  
% of Total Cases 0.53% 2.73% 7.78% 27.23% 21.61% 16.32% 11.50% 6.37% 3.31% 2.62%   19,718
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Skipper

Skipper 6103

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9 hours ago, Texas Jeff said:

 

Hopefully we get back to April/May levels (about 50 cases per day for Travis Co).  

How much of those early levels was due to low testing in Austin?  I know in Dallas as testing picked up end of April into May cases increased but positivity rate stayed low.  In Dallas, I think the real baseline is around 200/day.   The numbers in the low 100's we were reporting in March and April were due to slow ramp up of testing.  

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Skipper

Skipper 6103

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1 hour ago, kevwun said:

It wasn't spreading as much in March and April.  Hospitalizations would have been at the same level back then it was as widespread.

In Dallas, hospitalizations were higher in late March/early April than they were in late April/early May.  I think the hospitalization data shows Dallas was actually on the verge of a pretty widespread outbreak when we shut things down in March.  We just didn't know it because we weren't testing anyone.   There was a noticeable increase in cases once testing capacity ramped up in mid-April without a similar rise in hospitalizations.

This is highlighted by the fact that in mid April data indicated 28% of known cases were hospitalized (i.e., we were primarily testing the very sick and their known contacts).  Now that stat is down to 12%.

Edited by Skipper
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justhookit

justhookit 4182

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2 hours ago, Skipper said:

How much of those early levels was due to low testing in Austin?  I know in Dallas as testing picked up end of April into May cases increased but positivity rate stayed low.  In Dallas, I think the real baseline is around 200/day.   The numbers in the low 100's we were reporting in March and April were due to slow ramp up of testing.  

Yeah, Corpus stayed at 3% or less positive rate until June when it started creeping up. Mid July we hit 25.5% and then we stopped reporting it. Last I saw in the daily task force brief it was well over 30% but starting to drop as of about a week ago. They are now estimating 1/7 of the county population has an active infection. I can’t believe that is actually right but at this point who the fuck knows.

https://www.cctexas.com/sites/default/files/7-24-20-TAMUCC-COVID-19.pdf

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Helobious

Helobious 9481

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On 7/26/2020 at 9:58 AM, Walte464 said:

RGV is going to be in a very very very bad place in 2-3 weeks with hurricane Hanna tracking this way. There is going to be major flooding and random people helping others in the flood without mask.

 

was busy with Hanna to post this last night, Hidalgo doesn’t post on saturdays. 341 people tested positive in Cameron with 8 deaths.

0DA6209F-AB2A-4D61-8DAD-803F27121DE2.jpeg

Been talking a lot with my family down there. Hardly any flooding at all so far. Was much worse 2 summers ago.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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26 minutes ago, justhookit said:

Yeah, Corpus stayed at 3% or less positive rate until June when it started creeping up. Mid July we hit 25.5% and then we stopped reporting it. Last I saw in the daily task force brief it was well over 30% but starting to drop as of about a week ago. They are now estimating 1/7 of the county population has an active infection. I can’t believe that is actually right but at this point who the fuck knows.

https://www.cctexas.com/sites/default/files/7-24-20-TAMUCC-COVID-19.pdf

Maybe if you all get herd immunity ya'll can have the NFL bubble this season.

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relapse98

relapse98 634

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18 hours ago, Pimphand said:

Thankfully TX hospitals have proven to be orders of magnitude better at managing care than the northeastern counterparts.

You mean the states that got hit hard with a novel virus first were less capable of taking care of patients than states that got hit later?
Amazing info!

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Walte464

Walte464 450

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1 hour ago, Helobious said:

Been talking a lot with my family down there. Hardly any flooding at all so far. Was much worse 2 summers ago.

There was still major flooding, just not as bad as last June. The wind and rain collapsed the La Plaza Mall roof AEP stated today that all the power won’t be totally fixed until Friday.

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