COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[Judge Roybeanbag 11810]

11 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

How are zoom calls with Jimmy going?

[bschoolprof 6232]

Oh noes. Rip jimmy.

[CooterBrown 17914]

How are zoom calls with Jimmy going?

He was let go a while back for drunk calling the wrong coworkers late at night plus some other stuff I’m not privy to.

[Trey3216 15325]

58 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

He was let go a while back for drunk calling the wrong coworkers late at night plus some other stuff I’m not privy to.

And in the process ruined one of the greatest running threads in the history of the interwebs.  

[Anastasis 23394]

1 hour ago, dcar00 said:

interesting, with no real mask use and crazy house parties?  masks and other mitigation effots help flatten the curve but once it gets into a population the curve seems to have a rise and fall timeline of 8 weeks or so.  doesn't mean it goes away but it is interesting to me at least.

The pattern being observed in Spain France Germany etc is kinda worrying. 

[Deej 76568]

Lady at work who can't come to the office for fear of COVID just posted video on Facebook of her and about 75 people partying and getting their drink on. Nobody wearing a mask. 

 

 

[Anastasis 23394]

On 7/28/2020 at 6:45 PM, Anastasis said:

New admissions down to 38, basically half of the highs back in early July. Pretty great progress over three weeks imo. Hospital, ICU and vent census all also headed in the right direction.

Today's numbers did their job.  Let's keep on top of the bitch. One more day with similar numbers and we can break into stage 3. 

[Anastasis 23394]

6/8, 7/8, 7/29

[SHOOTER12 8789]

9 hours ago, Johnny Sack said:

The test does make your eyes water.  I had a minor surgery two weeks ago at Methodist.  Was tested three times (pre op, op and post op).  PCR tests.  I will say this for Methodist, they must have their own lab because I got results back within 12 hours for all three tests.

Also, the hospital wing I was in, the main hospital, was spooky empty.  Felt like Halloween II.

Screw that, it's the maniacal sneezing that I hate 

[SHOOTER12 8789]

3 hours ago, South Austin said:

That's an old wives' tale Clark!

But your mom ain't....

[Bama Chick 28596]

Here is a chart that shows over the last 2 weeks the daily change in case count by age cohort. Basically taking the daily views I have been sending and putting them in chart form in stack bar with connectors. If you see the connectors open the cohorts share of a given day is increasing (opposite if lines close). You can see some interesting trends pop within certain date ranges. 10-19 this past week eg. I Set as a 100% stack bar as that allows you to more easily see the variance between the age cohorts vs a regular stack bar. Each age cohort's daily case count is labeled.

Is the state of Texas requiring all college students to be tested before arriving on campus?

Our governor ordered all college students for all universities in Alabama to provide test results within 14 days of returning to campus so we’ve seen a big jump in testing and positives in the 18-23 age group.

It’s a good policy (ignoring that a student could test negative 14 days out and catch it 5 days out and they’d still be allowed on campus) but it’s definitely skewed the state’s numbers over the last part of July and beginning of August.

[Js1 85115]

7 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Is the state of Texas requiring all college students to be tested before arriving on campus?

Our governor ordered all college students for all universities in Alabama to provide test results within 14 days of returning to campus so we’ve seen a big jump in testing and positives in the 18-23 age group.

It’s a good policy (ignoring that a student could test negative 14 days out and catch it 5 days out and they’d still be allowed on campus) but it’s definitely skewed the state’s numbers over the last part of July and beginning of August.

I saw Baylor sent everyone a test 

[Deej 76568]

9 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I saw Baylor sent everyone a test 

Unfortunately,  they'll shelve the results with the rape kits. 

[dcar00 14036]

2 hours ago, Anastasis said:

The pattern being observed in Spain France Germany etc is kinda worrying. 

agreed.

[BradInATX 9208]

2 hours ago, Anastasis said:

The pattern being observed in Spain France Germany etc is kinda worrying. 

What pattern is that?

[washparkhorn 9935]

Spain, France and Germany appear to be experiencing a second wave. They loosened, they are seeing an increase in numbers, and GB is considering shutting them out again. 

Rinse and repeat will continue - hopefully with muted numbers this time around - and repeatedly becoming more easily managed over time. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlieporterfield/2020/07/25/france-spain-germany-suddenly-facing-new-coronavirus-surge/#cd623985bad1

 

Edited July 30, 2020 by washparkhorn
link

[Anastasis 23394]

13 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

What pattern is that?

resurgence of new cases. 

Spain being the clearest example.

 

[BradInATX 9208]

Just now, Anastasis said:

resurgence of new cases. 

Spain being the clearest example.

 

 

Ah alright. I actually looked at France and Germany, both of which look fine. Yeah, a tiny little upward tick, but it barely even registers.

Spain above is a bit concerning. It'll be interesting to see if the countries who actually got the cases to a manageable level have the stamina to keep them down.

[Anastasis 23394]

13 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Spain, France and Germany appear to be experiencing a second wave. They loosened, they are seeing an increase in numbers, and GB is considering shutting them out again. 

Rinse and repeat will continue - hopefully with muted numbers this time around - and repeatedly becoming more easily managed over time. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlieporterfield/2020/07/25/france-spain-germany-suddenly-facing-new-coronavirus-surge/#cd623985bad1

 

Right.  If ATX follows similar path, that eight week lag till resurgence puts us in October maybe (lots of assumptions baked in here admitedly).  That is the concerning signal imo. 

[Anastasis 23394]

Just now, BradInATX said:

It'll be interesting to see if the countries who actually got the cases to a manageable level have the stamina to keep them down.

Meanwhile, in ATX the clamoring for schools opening up and lifting the other measures that have had a demonstrable impact will ramp up over the next 4 or so weeks as we get things under control.

Rinse. Repeat. 

[staboner 4959]

6 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Spain, France and Germany appear to be experiencing a second wave. They loosened, they are seeing an increase in numbers, and GB is considering shutting them out again. 

Rinse and repeat will continue - hopefully with muted numbers this time around - and repeatedly becoming more easily managed over time. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlieporterfield/2020/07/25/france-spain-germany-suddenly-facing-new-coronavirus-surge/#cd623985bad1

 

Australia too. Mostly Melbourne. but don't worry it will come back elsewhere in the country too, just a matter of time.

in a self reporting study in Australia in mid July - 9 out of 10 did not isolate once they had symptoms and 5 of 10 did not isolate after getting tested. this is self reported. 

!!

just last week - in the midst of the "lockdown boogaloo take 2" we decided to try and do a better job at nursing homes by getting some PPE for workers. oh how thoughtful! 

its obvious to anyone paying attention how/where the fucking virus will get on your ass. and we just kinda hang back and wait for .... it to happen. 

if the job of this virus is to disrupt mankind best it can - it gets an A+. if it was more deadly, or spread slower, or wasn't so frequently asymptomatic it wouldn't be doing half this shit. 

i mean look - have a happy on 400/day to 100/day. but this is a long motherfucking game. hang in there peeps and lets all stay away from the red button. 

 

[BradInATX 9208]

3 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Meanwhile, in ATX the clamoring for schools opening up and lifting the other measures that have had a demonstrable impact will ramp up over the next 4 or so weeks as we get things under control.

Rinse. Repeat. 

Yup.

And your 8 week October spike projection lines up nicely for Labor Day weekend, and (supposedly) NFL/college kickoff weekends. Fall/winter is gonna suck.

[BradInATX 9208]

4 minutes ago, staboner said:

Australia too. Mostly Melbourne. but don't worry it will come back elsewhere in the country too, just a matter of time.

in a self reporting study in Australia in mid July - 9 out of 10 did not isolate once they had symptoms and 5 of 10 did not isolate after getting tested. this is self reported. 

!!

just last week - in the midst of the "lockdown boogaloo take 2" we decided to try and do a better job at nursing homes by getting some PPE for workers. oh how thoughtful! 

its obvious to anyone paying attention how/where the fucking virus will get on your ass. and we just kinda hang back and wait for .... it to happen. 

if the job of this virus is to disrupt mankind best it can - it gets an A+. if it was more deadly, or spread slower, or wasn't so frequently asymptomatic it wouldn't be doing half this shit. 

i mean look - have a happy on 400/day to 100/day. but this is a long motherfucking game. hang in there peeps and lets all stay away from the red button. 

 

 

Australia is basically America where you drive on the wrong side of the road and their deer jump around on two legs and have pockets. I hadn't looked at their cases chart but was wholly unsurprised to see what I did when I pulled it up. I fully expect them to align much more closely with us when it comes to patience and discipline around the virus than with Europe or the rest of APAC.

Edited July 30, 2020 by BradInATX

[atomheartbevo 89452]

2 hours ago, Deej said:

Lady at work who can't come to the office for fear of COVID just posted video on Facebook of her and about 75 people partying and getting their drink on. Nobody wearing a mask. 

Do you work with Fitlump?

[atomheartbevo 89452]

11 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Right.  If ATX follows similar path, that eight week lag till resurgence puts us in October maybe (lots of assumptions baked in here admitedly).  That is the concerning signal imo. 

In-person classes starting after Labor Day, along with high school athletics (ain't no way they'll have social distancing at a lot of those games).

Well, and Labor Day itself.

[atomheartbevo 89452]

7 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Yup.

And your 8 week October spike projection lines up nicely for Labor Day weekend, and (supposedly) NFL/college kickoff weekends. Fall/winter is gonna suck.

Aggy got over $250 million from the government to produce a vaccine.   So fall/winter is going to suck harder than you think.  Because

 

[Walte464 450]

934 new cases in Cameron and Hidalgo counties with 53 more deaths. With hotels being at capacity and an over abundance of water rescues this week. We’re going to see a spike in the next 2-3 weeks. The hot spot is going to get hotter.

[atomheartbevo 89452]

I did a quick mockup of the bottles their vaccine will come in - it's not going to be injection.

[atomheartbevo 89452]

Louie Gohmert, a Representative from Texas who is known to eschew the wearing of a mask, and has even mocked the idea, and said he would only wear a mask if he was ever infected.  This morning, he was tested before making a fundraising trip to Texas, and well....

 

Being a highly educated disaster scientist (I'm guessing, I don't know his background), he had this to say on the matter:

"I can't help but wonder if by keeping a mask on and keeping it in place, I might have put some germs - some virus - on to the mask and breathed it in," he told Texas station KETK.

He respects his staff enough that he put on a mask and returned to his office, where he informed them in-person that he had it. 

[justhookit 4182]

6 hours ago, dcar00 said:

interesting, with no real mask use and crazy house parties?  masks and other mitigation effots help flatten the curve but once it gets into a population the curve seems to have a rise and fall timeline of 8 weeks or so.  doesn't mean it goes away but it is interesting to me at least.

I’m glad you think covid has a calendar. I’m assuming you are going towards the idea that it slows naturally, something like herd immunity but not quite there. That’s not what is going on.

The pattern you keep seeing is specifically tied to the “masks and other mitigation efforts” like social distancing and closing indoor activities with crowds that a population will do on their own, regardless of what their government may be mandating.  Places spike and when they see the numbers go up they behave. It’s really fucking simple.

or, you are the first person in the history of the world to observe a virus that has a time schedule. 

 

[justhookit 4182]

Corpus new cases trending down and the better news is hospitalizations are dropping already too. I think our testing is so shitty here that we are almost seeing a direct correlation between new cases and hospital numbers. There’s almost no lag. That’s insane, wrong, and completely fucked up. October is going to be miserable.

Edited July 30, 2020 by justhookit

[justhookit 4182]

2 hours ago, BradInATX said:

 

Ah alright. I actually looked at France and Germany, both of which look fine. Yeah, a tiny little upward tick, but it barely even registers.

Spain above is a bit concerning. It'll be interesting to see if the countries who actually got the cases to a manageable level have the stamina to keep them down.

They might. Do we though? Other than N.Y./NJ we still haven’t really proven we can do that. And I’m not real sure how much longer they can hold out. I’m firmly in the camp of us hitting the lather rinse repeat stage and we are stuck here. Hope I’m wrong. 

Also I’m totally unconvinced that the numbers we are seeing in a lot of other countries are accurate. We know our numbers are wrong. A few years from now we will look at excess deaths and do the math and figure out how bad it is or isn’t and hopefully find that there aren’t bad long term effects.

[Bartles 769]

5 hours ago, justhookit said:

Other than N.Y./NJ we still haven’t really proven we can do that. And I’m not real sure how much longer they can hold out. I’m firmly in the camp of us hitting the lather rinse repeat stage and we are stuck here. Hope I’m wrong. 

Agree with this. No place in the US has the discipline and cohesiveness seen overseas to hammer the numbers down to where every outbreak can be traced and cut off before it's in the community. Besides our basic behavior, people move around too much so even a smallish town can't prevent new cases from being brought in almost daily.

America will simply be a dangerous place for an indeterminate amount of time. Best we can hope for is the future waves are short-term bumps and no more surges that look like the Titan rollercoaster climb.

[Guest Lobo]

13 hours ago, dcar00 said:

interesting, with no real mask use and crazy house parties?  masks and other mitigation effots help flatten the curve but once it gets into a population the curve seems to have a rise and fall timeline of 8 weeks or so.  doesn't mean it goes away but it is interesting to me at least.

If you talk to the virus about timelines, as it seems that you do, ask it what time 8 weeks from now.  Because I have something at 11.  

[BrazilHorn 6576]

11 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

Is the state of Texas requiring all college students to be tested before arriving on campus?

Our governor ordered all college students for all universities in Alabama to provide test results within 14 days of returning to campus so we’ve seen a big jump in testing and positives in the 18-23 age group.

It’s a good policy (ignoring that a student could test negative 14 days out and catch it 5 days out and they’d still be allowed on campus) but it’s definitely skewed the state’s numbers over the last part of July and beginning of August.

It is varying by school. Baylor is mandating a negative test prior to return, Rice has ordered a large number of tests and plans on doing random sampling, there has yet to be a unified state wide policy for returning college students. I actually think Rice's approach to gain a rough feel of randomized infection rate across student population is better than Baylor's one-shot "ok you were negative" approach.

[GreenspointTexas 9568]

Based on everything ive read (and experience(s) here at work in the OR), it seems as though this virus is hard to catch if you are wearing goggles, a n95, and using proper hand hygiene.

 

Almost every case ive seen (staff and patients) at the 22 facilities/hospitals we cover has not spread through staff to staff or patient to staff contact. Instead, its either a patient or staff member who has seemed to get it from somewhere in the community and brings it in that way.

 

JMO, but I think you have to have one of 3 things to really contract this:

1) Prolonged time indoors (without a mask and goggles) with another person who also isnt wearing a mask

 

2) Person has to be pretty close indoors... like less than 10 feet. Or multiple people have to be gathering indoors, with a circulating air system or someone who is coughing to sneezing or breathing hard.

 

3) Sharing surfaces that come into recent, direct contact with someone that is infected. IE - sharing a drinking cup, kissing, doorknobs, car door handles, shopping carts, etc

 

It seems that the small amount of healthcare providers that are catching it at work are either not using ppe/masks properly or work in direct contact with covid patients or in a covid unit. 
 

Just a hypothesis, but im usually wrong

[wild_turkey 3153]

Forgive me if this has been addressed but I’m out of the loop here... the Texas DSHS dashboard shows daily fatalities dropping to zero the last few days. What’s up with that? I obviously don’t believe the data, but up until this week, I had trusted that source for Texas specific COVID numbers. Is the website broken or is something else happening?

[South Austin 52148]

6 minutes ago, wild_turkey said:

Forgive me if this has been addressed but I’m out of the loop here... the Texas DSHS dashboard shows daily fatalities dropping to zero the last few days. What’s up with that? I obviously don’t believe the data, but up until this week, I had trusted that source for Texas specific COVID numbers. Is the website broken or is something else happening?

It’s over. We won!

[After irth 1243]

28 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Based on everything ive read (and experience(s) here at work in the OR), it seems as though this virus is hard to catch if you are wearing goggles, a n95, and using proper hand hygiene.

 

Almost every case ive seen (staff and patients) at the 22 facilities/hospitals we cover has not spread through staff to staff or patient to staff contact. Instead, its either a patient or staff member who has seemed to get it from somewhere in the community and brings it in that way.

 

JMO, but I think you have to have one of 3 things to really contract this:

1) Prolonged time indoors (without a mask and goggles) with another person who also isnt wearing a mask

 

2) Person has to be pretty close indoors... like less than 10 feet. Or multiple people have to be gathering indoors, with a circulating air system or someone who is coughing to sneezing or breathing hard.

 

3) Sharing surfaces that come into recent, direct contact with someone that is infected. IE - sharing a drinking cup, kissing, doorknobs, car door handles, shopping carts, etc

 

It seems that the small amount of healthcare providers that are catching it at work are either not using ppe/masks properly or work in direct contact with covid patients or in a covid unit. 
 

Just a hypothesis, but im usually wrong

Wife (no pics) has worked with Covid patients everyday, with limited PPE (meaning a lot of reusing), and...so far nothing. Ain’t no social distancing at home (wink wink, nudge nudge), but she does follow a certain protocol upon coming home. It’s gone through the out-patient personnel more than the hospital staff, although a few of her peers caught mild cases  

I have to assume we were exposed long ago, but who knows...?  It’s a shitshow all around, it seems, with little rhyme and absolutely no reason. 

[After irth 1243]

8 hours ago, justhookit said:

Corpus new cases trending down and the better news is hospitalizations are dropping already too. I think our testing is so shitty here that we are almost seeing a direct correlation between new cases and hospital numbers. There’s almost no lag. That’s insane, wrong, and completely fucked up. October is going to be miserable.

Something to look forward to!  Anticipation can be a powerful aphrodisiac, ya know?

Edited July 30, 2020 by After irth
Stupid keyboard

[BradInATX 9208]

10 minutes ago, After irth said:

Wife (no pics) has worked with Covid patients everyday, with limited PPE (meaning a lot of reusing), and...so far nothing. Ain’t no social distancing at home (wink wink, nudge nudge), but she does follow a certain protocol upon coming home. It’s gone through the out-patient personnel more than the hospital staff, although a few of her peers caught mild cases  

I have to assume we were exposed long ago, but who knows...?  It’s a shitshow all around, it seems, with little rhyme and absolutely no reason. 

 

I went to Great Wolf Lodge in March so  I'm pretty sure I'm now immune to Covid, all of the Hepatitises, and AIDS.

[BrazilHorn 6576]

Here are the daily numbers for Travis Co by age bracket. Slight bump vs their overall for the 50-59 bracket. Nice trend over the past three days of low 200s in total case count. It is looking like the days of 400 - 600 a day are behind us (keep bars closed).

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 7/29 vs 7/28	0	6	14	52	49	46	35	21	5	9	237
% of Daily Change	0.00%	2.53%	5.91%	21.94%	20.68%	19.41%	14.77%	8.86%	2.11%	3.80%
% of Total Cases	0.53%	2.68%	7.67%	27.24%	21.68%	16.33%	11.57%	6.41%	3.27%	2.62%	20,187

[utee94 15746]

49 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

I went to Great Wolf Lodge in March so  I'm pretty sure I'm now immune to Covid, all of the Hepatitises, and AIDS.

My wife keeps mentioning going there with our kids.  Well, not now, but back in the Beforetimes.  

I just have no desire to do that to myself, or my family.  I told her, "Babe, we have a ski boat for the precise reason of not ever having to go to a water park."

[Mitch Cumsteen 18523]

The cases seem to be leveling off for now, and should drop fairly precipitously over the next month. Then they are going to open up the schools again in mid- to late-September. Victory will be declared (again) and then the shit is going to hit the fan again in October. This thing really is like the aggy rollercoaster.

[InkaUtexas 25524]

4 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

The cases seem to be leveling off for now, and should drop fairly precipitously over the next month. Then they are going to open up the schools again in mid- to late-September. Victory will be declared (again) and then the shit is going to hit the fan again in October. This thing really is like the aggy rollercoaster.

nah, cuz once it goes down it does not go back up. 

[BradInATX 9208]

4 minutes ago, utee94 said:

My wife keeps mentioning going there with our kids.  Well, not now, but back in the Beforetimes.  

I just have no desire to do that to myself, or my family.  I told her, "Babe, we have a ski boat for the precise reason of not ever having to go to a water park."

It's not terrible. I mean it's terrible, but you can make it passable. Get one of the cabanas (they're like $99 for the day), bring a big yeti full of a strong alcoholic drink in every time you go from your room to the park.. profit. You have to stay buzzed the entire time.

[utee94 15746]

1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

It's not terrible. I mean it's terrible, but you can make it passable. Get one of the cabanas (they're like $99 for the day), bring a big yeti full of a strong alcoholic drink in every time you go from your room to the park.. profit. You have to stay buzzed the entire time.

Oh yeah, we'd definitely do the cabana, if it ever happened.  Which it will not.  At least now I can blame COVID for the next 12-18 months of shutting that idea down. 

[atomheartbevo 89452]

11 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

The cases seem to be leveling off for now, and should drop fairly precipitously over the next month. Then they are going to open up the schools again in mid- to late-September. Victory will be declared (again) and then the shit is going to hit the fan again in October. This thing really is like the aggy rollercoaster.

This will complicate things

https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/a-slap-in-the-face-educators-association-says-of-ag-paxtons-limits-on-local-health-officials-power-to-close-schools/

  Quote

But Attorney General Ken Paxton’s announcement on Tuesday — that local health officials don’t have the power to keep schools closed — is causing confusion and fear about the rest of the semester.

  Quote

But the Attorney General is now saying local health authorities can’t order closures like that.

In response, the Texas Education Agency announced districts that remain closed solely based on local health authorities’ orders will risk losing state funding.

  Quote

The TEA’s guidance still includes, though, a section that says schools can use the first four weeks as a transition period and do remote learning. A board vote can lead to four additional weeks of that “transition period.”

[MillerEP 30339]

wrong thread again.

Edited July 30, 2020 by MillerEP

[atomheartbevo 89452]

19 minutes ago, utee94 said:

My wife keeps mentioning going there with our kids.  Well, not now, but back in the Beforetimes.  

Yeah, we briefly considered it, but decided we'd rather spend the money and go to Colorado.