COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[Js1 86,938]

5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yeah, we briefly considered it, but decided we'd rather spend the money and go to Colorado.

[atomheartbevo 90,545]

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/nursing-home-investigations/errors-discrepancies-found-between-state-and-federal-covid-19-data-for-texas-nursing-homes/

Quote

— Christie Schultz used to be able to visit her mom through the window of her Austin nursing home, but she said her mom was recently moved. Now, she hasn’t seen her face in days. 

“You’re literally kind of banging on the doors, trying to get information,” Schultz said. 

She said one staff member at Windsor Nursing and Rehabilitation Center of Duval told her father there were more than 20 confirmed cases of COVID-19. Meanwhile, she said the state’s Office of the Long Term Care Ombudsman told her there were as many as 55 positive cases at one point.

Quote

KXAN Investigators found hundreds of discrepancies between state data reported by the Texas Health and Human Services Commission and federal data reported by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid.

For instance, state data has 2,063 more nursing home residents testing positive than federal data from the same week. The state also reported 219 more deaths in these facilities than the federal report.

 

[mchookem 16,728]

4 hours ago, Bartles said:

Agree with this. No place in the US has the discipline and cohesiveness seen overseas to hammer the numbers down to where every outbreak can be traced and cut off before it's in the community. Besides our basic behavior, people move around too much so even a smallish town can't prevent new cases from being brought in almost daily.

America will simply be a dangerous place for an indeterminate amount of time. Best we can hope for is the future waves are short-term bumps and no more surges that look like the Titan rollercoaster climb.

we are in general unruly and ungovernable and it's bred into our DNA that we have the right to do anything we want and nobody is going to tell us what to do. this is a uniquely American trait.

[Samson's Wig 3,222]

3 hours ago, BradInATX said:

 

I went to Great Wolf Lodge in March so  I'm pretty sure I'm now immune to Covid, all of the Hepatitises, and AIDS.

Or just slowly dying of a heretofore unknown disease.  That place is nasty.

[Samson's Wig 3,222]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

This will complicate things

https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/a-slap-in-the-face-educators-association-says-of-ag-paxtons-limits-on-local-health-officials-power-to-close-schools/

  Quote

But Attorney General Ken Paxton’s announcement on Tuesday — that local health officials don’t have the power to keep schools closed — is causing confusion and fear about the rest of the semester.

  Quote

But the Attorney General is now saying local health authorities can’t order closures like that.

In response, the Texas Education Agency announced districts that remain closed solely based on local health authorities’ orders will risk losing state funding.

  Quote

The TEA’s guidance still includes, though, a section that says schools can use the first four weeks as a transition period and do remote learning. A board vote can lead to four additional weeks of that “transition period.”

You would think TEA wouldn't want to see public schools fail.  Paxton I get. 

[williemackgarza 1,826]

What a clusterfuck

[atomheartbevo 90,545]

2 hours ago, williemackgarza said:

What a clusterfuck

Let's talk clusterfuck.

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/14-dallas-family-members-get-covid-19-after-virus-deniers-party-1-dead-and-another-on-life-support/

Quote

A Dallas man who hosted family members in June, under the thought COVID-19 was a hoax, now regrets that after one member died and 13 others tested positive for the virus, with one on life support.

According the a report by NBC, Tony Green invited his partner’s parents over to his house for a party June 13. Green admitted no one wore masks, as he thought “(AHB Note: He got into conspiracy theories/political bullshit about it being a hoax by one party to hurt another party - read the article yourself).”

Quote

The next day, Green felt sick. Two days later, his partner of nine years and parents felt sick. However, his partner’s parents, whom Green considers his in-laws even though he and his partner aren’t married, still went to Austin for the birth of their first grandchild, the report says. 

Two other family members went to Austin with the in-laws. Both got sick. The parents of the newborn also got sick. The newborn didn’t, Green said.

Quote

Everyone tested positive for coronavirus, Green said. He and his father-in-law, Rafael Ceja, were admitted to a hospital June 24, and then Ceja’s mother was admitted to the same hospital later on. She was one of the family members who traveled from Dallas to Austin with Green’s in-laws.

Quote

The mother died of COVID-19 complications on July 2, Green said. She was in the room next to her son, and her son didn’t even know she was there. Ceja learned later that day she died, Green said. Only 10 family members could attend her funeral two days later, Green said.

Ceja is still on life support as of July 27, according to a GoFundMe page that Green set up.

Quote

Two of Ceja’s sisters, one of his nephews and a brother-in-law had all contracted the virus bringing the total number of infected family members to 14, Green said.

Twelve family members have either recovered or are in various stages of recovery, Green said.

Quote

“I cannot help but feel responsible for convincing our families it was safe to have a get-together,” Green told NBC News in a phone interview. “There’s a lot of things that I would have done differently.”

 

 

[Guest Lobo]

No politics, because go fuck yourelf:

https://www.kvue.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/texas-coronavirus-update-austin-schools-young-population/269-7005c068-7377-4c8f-a65a-0d256acbfea4

It's gotta hurt to stick to such bullshit.  I can't wait to watch some of y'all watch some of your heroes die for no reason.  

[Telegraph_it 3,376]

Wait, what heroes!?! 

[Walte464 450]

The tides are turning in South Texas, Hidalgo is down with 271 test positive and 40 deaths and Cameron county has risen with 731 test positive and 6 deaths. Total of 1002 positive cases and 46 deaths.

[Macanudo 13,254]

12 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

nah, cuz once it goes down it does not go back up. 

That's what she said.

[Guest Lobo]

11 hours ago, Telegraph_it said:

Wait, what heroes!?! 

The ones in positions of influence that publicly state over and fucking over again that they're not sure kids can even get the virus (yeah, I consider 10-19 year olds to be kids).  And even if they get the virus (which so many assholes still believe rarely, if ever, happens), they're not sure kids can even transmit it.  There it is, substantial Travis County data that say that even though kids aren't even in school right now, they are the largest percentage increase in cases and the transmission/contact information suggests they are giving it one another, frequently outside the same family.  Presumably, this spike in kids will also mean giving it to adults in their same households.  Just imagine a month from now, when they're all indoors with each other at school.  This should end the discussion about whether or not kids can get/transmit the virus, but I know it won't.  We're gonna be stuck in this patter for a long time because of how fucking stupid we behave.  

Multiple Choice:  When deciding whether or not to send your children back to school in August/September for in-person instruction, on whom do you base your decision:

A.  Local Public Health Officials

B.  National Public Health Officials

C.  Local School District Administrators

D.  Attorneys 

[South Austin 53,154]

1 minute ago, Lobo said:

Multiple Choice:  When deciding whether or not to send your children back to school in August/September for in-person instruction, on whom do you base your decision:

A.  Local Public Health Officials

B.  National Public Health Officials

C.  Local School District Administrators

D.  Attorneys 

E.  Surly

You left out the one true authority.

[Guest Lobo]

Yeah, fair point.  My bad.  I do have to stop myself sometimes from giving some anecdote or data point to my wife about Covid-19 that I got on surly.....and quickly change up my story to "Uh, I saw on CNN this morning."  Then she looks at me like, "you haven't watched television in days."  Well, according to the correspondent from several days ago, a CDC official was being interviewed by a Mr. Jonathan Sacrimoni and he said that we can open our schools back up, dammit!  

[Liquor and Poker 3,659]

NYT-

Children May Carry Coronavirus at High Levels, Study Finds

The research does not prove that infected children are contagious, but it should influence the debate about reopening schools, some experts said.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/30/health/coronavirus-children.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20200731&instance_id=20861&nl=the-morning&regi_id=115763618&segment_id=34885&te=1&user_id=52582b04c3b92afd841aaf462e715115

[gmr548 16,681]

E.  Surly
You left out the one true authority.

D pretty much covered that

[troph 25,089]

The correct answer is:

 

F. Surly Attorneys

 

 

ps - stay home.

[GreenspointTexas 9,933]

13 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Let's talk clusterfuck.

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/14-dallas-family-members-get-covid-19-after-virus-deniers-party-1-dead-and-another-on-life-support/

 

 

Fuck tony green and his family. Fucking idiots. They should be last on the list for a ventilator

 

A PT friend at Memorial Hermann popped positive earlier this week after feeling sick. Now in icu with multiple DVTs/clots. In her 20s and no underlying health conditions

[BrazilHorn 6,792]

Daily case change for Travis County. Spikes day over day (vs their respective overall share) in 10-19 bracket & 80+ bracket. The 80+ isn't good as ~19% of all 80 year old cases have resulted in deaths (through most recent data of 7/25).

Travis again staying in the 200-300 range for daily cases. Keeping bars closed I believe is may cause.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 7/30 vs 7/29	1	9	28	51	65	48	37	17	6	16	278
% of Daily Change	0.36%	3.24%	10.07%	18.35%	23.38%	17.27%	13.31%	6.12%	2.16%	5.76%
% of Total Cases	0.52%	2.69%	7.71%	27.11%	21.71%	16.34%	11.59%	6.41%	3.26%	2.66%	20,465

[South Austin 53,154]

15 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Travis again staying in the 200-300 range for daily cases. Keeping bars closed I believe is may cause

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 7/30 vs 7/29	1	9	28	51	65	48	37	17	6	16	278
% of Daily Change	0.36%	3.24%	10.07%	18.35%	23.38%	17.27%	13.31%	6.12%	2.16%	5.76%
% of Total Cases	0.52%	2.69%	7.71%	27.11%	21.71%	16.34%	11.59%	6.41%	3.26%	2.66%	20,465

I suspect you're right -- that, combined with the "get your fucking masks on" message finally getting through.  But is there any contact tracing data to support this?  I'm guessing the answer is "no," but I'm curious. 

[BrazilHorn 6,792]

3 minutes ago, South Austin said:

I suspect you're right -- that, combined with the "get your fucking masks on" message finally getting through.  But is there any contact tracing data to support this?  I'm guessing the answer is "no," but I'm curious. 

Not that I have seen. You could add in increased mask usage as well, but certainly the immediate impact to daily caseload from bar closures is pretty telling. I am sure there is some combo of the two but keeping people out of enclosed spaces where they are pulling masks down to drink (if they even left on) seems to be helping.

Curious to see what happens in a couple of weeks with back to school. We should know fairly quickly what impact of that is.

[Neonmoon 38,130]

On 7/30/2020 at 6:35 AM, Bartles said:

Agree with this. No place in the US has the discipline and cohesiveness seen overseas to hammer the numbers down to where every outbreak can be traced and cut off before it's in the community. Besides our basic behavior, people move around too much so even a smallish town can't prevent new cases from being brought in almost daily.

America will simply be a dangerous place for an indeterminate amount of time. Best we can hope for is the future waves are short-term bumps and no more surges that look like the Titan rollercoaster climb.

Yeah, other countries can do things the US won't/can't. Look at China, (not that I agree with their bullshit numbers), but they were literally locking people in their own homes. They weren't having debates about a mask. The US can't do what they did. The controlled their outbreak through totalitarian measures. Places like South Korea, Taiwan, Japan used a few measures that the US doesn't have. Culturally, they already are anti-germ, they all believe in masks, already wore them regularly. They had hard lockdowns, some more than other, but they followed social distancing, masks, etc back in January and February. They had big data tracking people phones, and social shame people who didn't follow the rules. They weren't having people living their best lives in March and trying to reopen a month later. Again, the US is culturally opposite. They don't give a fuck, and half the country thinks it's not real. 

Spain/Italy/France and other EU countries shut down hard and fast. They still got hit hard, but they took it seriously. They socially shamed people who didn't take it seriously. Now they are seeing spikes because they opened back up a little. That's because the virus didn't go away. It's going to flare up in places. But when you got it down to a reasonable number, you can contact trace and quarantine those people and keep it mostly down until a vaccine is available. 

The US has zero discipline. This thing is going to be here for a while. Even after we get a vaccine, how many will actually get the vaccine? How effective will the vaccine be? Dont' get me wrong, the cases and deaths will drop dramatically once it becomes widely available, but there still going to be issues in the US in communities that don't give a shit. 

[Redpuma 146]

42 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Yeah, other countries can do things the US won't/can't. Look at China, (not that I agree with their bullshit numbers), but they were literally locking people in their own homes. They weren't having debates about a mask. The US can't do what they did. The controlled their outbreak through totalitarian measures. Places like South Korea, Taiwan, Japan used a few measures that the US doesn't have. Culturally, they already are anti-germ, they all believe in masks, already wore them regularly. They had hard lockdowns, some more than other, but they followed social distancing, masks, etc back in January and February. They had big data tracking people phones, and social shame people who didn't follow the rules. They weren't having people living their best lives in March and trying to reopen a month later. Again, the US is culturally opposite. They don't give a fuck, and half the country thinks it's not real. 

Spain/Italy/France and other EU countries shut down hard and fast. They still got hit hard, but they took it seriously. They socially shamed people who didn't take it seriously. Now they are seeing spikes because they opened back up a little. That's because the virus didn't go away. It's going to flare up in places. But when you got it down to a reasonable number, you can contact trace and quarantine those people and keep it mostly down until a vaccine is available. 

The US has zero discipline. This thing is going to be here for a while. Even after we get a vaccine, how many will actually get the vaccine? How effective will the vaccine be? Dont' get me wrong, the cases and deaths will drop dramatically once it becomes widely available, but there still going to be issues in the US in communities that don't give a shit. 

We do have the ability but lack competent (political) leaders to implement sensible policies. We have come together as a nation in other national crisis but had reasonably (not even great) leaders that would make the hard decisions. 

[Brisketexan 106,618]

46 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Spain/Italy/France and other EU countries shut down hard and fast. They still got hit hard, but they took it seriously. They socially shamed people who didn't take it seriously. Now they are seeing spikes because they opened back up a little. That's because the virus didn't go away. It's going to flare up in places. But when you got it down to a reasonable number, you can contact trace and quarantine those people and keep it mostly down until a vaccine is available. 

The US has zero discipline. This thing is going to be here for a while. Even after we get a vaccine, how many will actually get the vaccine? How effective will the vaccine be? Dont' get me wrong, the cases and deaths will drop dramatically once it becomes widely available, but there still going to be issues in the US in communities that don't give a shit. 

Two things -- the "spikes" being seen in the EU right now are....a few hundred cases.  We're seeing that in one county here in the US.

Second....your second para is spot-on.  We're going to be living with this disease as endemic, and as a periodic flare-up real problem, for a LONG time.  Because we are so.  fucking.  stupid.

[atomheartbevo 90,545]

2 hours ago, troph said:

The correct answer is:

F. Surly Attorneys

ps - stay home.

G. Surly Attorneys who also went to law school.

[troph 25,089]

48 minutes ago, Redpuma said:

We do have the ability but lack competent (political) leaders to implement sensible policies. We have come together as a nation in other national crisis but had reasonably (not even great) leaders that would make the hard decisions. 

a properly functioning federal government would:

* have not eviscerated the CDC pandemic team prior to this pandemic

* put the CDC and NIH on full display

* POTUS oval office address to the nation at various times saying the patriotic thing is to stay home and wear a mask

* provide federal funding with unlimited funding for testing, and systematize testing and reporting

* census style staffing for contact tracing

* commercials on TV, radio, social media to promote COVID-19 awareness of how to respond

* work with local governments to close schools, fund remote learning, work to make sure kids get fed, laptops and smart devices are available

* extend unemployment benefits for 12-18 months

* POTUS events that lead by action with social distancing and mask wearing

* POTUS non-events that lead by action by showing POTUS staying home at the WH

* create special task force to manage all of these aspects in a cohesive manner

I'm sure there could be more, and yet NONE of this has been done.

 

Edited July 31, 2020 by troph

[LTtxfan 49,909]

Texas related...

 

[atomheartbevo 90,545]

3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

G. Surly Attorneys who also went to law school.

H. Surly Attorneys who also went to law school and medical school.

I. Surly doctors

J. Surly doctors who attended medical school.

K. Surly doctors who attended medical school and law school.

That should cover all of Surly.

[Neonmoon 38,130]

L. Surly members that fucked people that went to medical school and law school

[Texas Jeff 1,998]

BTW, today is day 150 of COVID in Texas ... first case reported in Texas was March 4th.

If a vaccine is available on Jan 1, 2021, we have 154 days to go.   It is going to be a long, long fall.

[Samson's Wig 3,222]

3 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

BTW, today is day 150 of COVID in Texas ... first case reported in Texas was March 4th.

If a vaccine is available on Jan 1, 2021, we have 154 days to go.   It is going to be a long, long fall.

Why would you do this?

[Liquor and Poker 3,659]

1 hour ago, Samson's Wig said:

Why would you do this?

 

[troph 25,089]

6 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

Texas related...

 

I just want to say that's an wicked bad ass pic of the tower.  I don't think I could ever stop loving that building.  wow.

[MissingInAction 25,478]

52 minutes ago, troph said:

I just want to say that's an wicked bad ass pic of the tower.  I don't think I could ever stop loving that building.  wow.

It is definitely the greatest phallic symbol in the world.

[XYZ 2,154]

Austin MSA doing pretty OK. From 492 hospitalizations two weeks ago to 338.

[After irth 1,245]

8 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

L. Surly members that fucked people that went to medical school and law school

You rang?  Yes?  What can I do for you?

[Surly Bevo 25,654]

13 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Because we are so.  fucking.  stupid.

 

[VolenteHawk 495]

21 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Two things -- the "spikes" being seen in the EU right now are....a few hundred cases.  We're seeing that in one county here in the US.

Second....your second para is spot-on.  We're going to be living with this disease as endemic, and as a periodic flare-up real problem, for a LONG time.  Because we are so.  fucking.  stupid.

Spain crossed 3k cases yesterday and very much looks like the very early stages of a legit 2nd wave. They no doubt learned from us what not to do, but if countries like that have a legit 2nd round that will be discouraging...will feel like there is a certain inevitability to it, IMO.

[Guest Lobo]

Yep, we are doing...by far...one of the worst jobs in the world but we refuse to admit it.  Spain and Italy at least faced their ineptitude early on and tried to course-correct...we seem to be doubling down on our stupidity and selfishness.  I still think, mathematically, we get a brief reprieve in October and then have a November-February that perhaps marks the worst time in United States since 1942.  

[BrazilHorn 6,792]

Here is the updated view of the stacked bar daily case increase for Travis County with this past week's data included. I am basically taking what I send daily and putting it in this format so you can see graphically the daily movement by age cohort. Where you see connectors opening it means an increase from prior day, closing it is a decrease.

I am not adding in the <1 bracket. Frankly their numbers are so low it would for all intents and purposes just be adding a row of 0s or 1s at bottom of slide.

I will update deaths whenever TCAD does their weekly upload.

[Telegraph_it 3,376]

1 hour ago, Lobo said:

Yep, we are doing...by far...one of the worst jobs in the world but we refuse to admit it.  Spain and Italy at least faced their ineptitude early on and tried to course-correct...we seem to be doubling down on our stupidity and selfishness.  I still think, mathematically, we get a brief reprieve in October and then have a November-February that perhaps marks the worst time in United States since 1942.  

[Guest Lobo]

So the faucet is the United States and the drips are the virus?  I think I get it, man. 

[Liquor and Poker 3,659]

1 hour ago, Lobo said:

Yep, we are doing...by far...one of the worst jobs in the world but we refuse to admit it.  Spain and Italy at least faced their ineptitude early on and tried to course-correct...we seem to be doubling down on our stupidity and selfishness.  I still think, mathematically, we get a brief reprieve in October and then have a November-February that perhaps marks the worst time in United States since 1942.  

Was it over when the Germans bomber Pearl Harbor?

[Guest Lobo]

No, it was the Italians that bombed Pearl Harbor in 1942.  Germany bombed the Aleutian Islands.  Read a fucking book, dude. 

[Walte464 450]

Fuck you covid and fuck you dumbasses in Cameron county who want to drink at fuckin chillis and Applebee’s.

[Deej 77,669]

14 hours ago, Lobo said:

Yep, we are doing...by far...one of the worst jobs in the world but we refuse to admit it.  Spain and Italy at least faced their ineptitude early on and tried to course-correct...we seem to be doubling down on our stupidity and selfishness.  I still think, mathematically, we get a brief reprieve in October and then have a November-February that perhaps marks the worst time in United States since 1942.  

Spain is just unhappy there's no New World to infect with the virus. 

[BrazilHorn 6,792]

Daily case comparison for Travis county. Uptick in the 1-9 compared to their overall share of cases (march to date). Lower number of cases overall yesterday (222) so the actual number of 1-9 cases is still relatively low to where it was trending prior.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 8/1 vs 7/31	1	19	16	51	46	41	27	14	6	1	222
% of Daily Change	0.45%	8.56%	7.21%	22.97%	20.72%	18.47%	12.16%	6.31%	2.70%	0.45%
% of Total Cases	0.52%	2.75%	7.71%	26.98%	21.72%	16.42%	11.65%	6.41%	3.25%	2.60%	20,967

Edited August 2, 2020 by BrazilHorn

[BrazilHorn 6,792]

Here is the weekly deaths for Travis County trend line. Travis County still holding at ~35 or so deaths a week the past three weeks. Still heavily concentrated in the 60 yo+ bucket.(~80%). However as of w/e Aug 1st. Slight uptick in the 50-59 year old bracket now ~13% of deaths overall. End of the day if you are old and get this you have a ~9% chance of dying (60yo +). This grows to ~19% for 80 yo+.

[BrazilHorn 6,792]

Another data point I have been tracking is the 7 day average of patients on a ventilator. It is absolutely going the wrong direction. So while total hospitalizations are moving downwards (high of 480 on July 20th to now 222 on Aug 1st) the % of those hospitalized on a ventilator has increased steadily.

W/E June 21st - 15.87%

W/E June 28th - 16.82%

W/E July 3rd - 16.78%

W/E July 10th - 18.52%

W/E July 17th - 20.20%

W/E July 24th - 23.57%

W/E July 31st - 25.05%

You do not see a corresponding increase in the % of those hospitalized in ICU however. Data here actually shows a decline from the low 40% of people hospitalized requiring ICU to the low 30s from late June to Aug 1st. What I can tell is that for last month ~63% of all ICU patients end up on ventilation.

So figure a little over of third of all patients end up in ICU and of those around two thirds on ventilation.

Again if you are old, obese or have significant underlying auto immune/respiratory conditions stay home.

[Newdoc 3,508]

12 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Again if you are old, obese or have significant underlying auto immune/respiratory conditions stay home.

Stay isolated. Many of these in the high risk population are having the virus brought into the home from other family members.  However, there are some people out that look like they wanted to tempt fate. Then again, good life choices eludes many of the high risk population.