COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[JBJ 3648]

I plugged TX nunbers into my national model (same assumptions).

I we saw an uptick in transmitivity (0.09 to 0.12) starting around May 22-26, which coincides pretty well with Memorial Weekend and second reopening.  This held flat/slightly declined the rest of that week.

The current surge of cases come from June 5 onward with around 0.20 transmissivity.  Conincides pretty well with mass public gatherings.  June 11th is the last day with full hindcasting as of yesterday's numbers, so we are still seeing "protest surge" right now - if that's what this is.

For perspective: the national average was steady at 0.10 for two months and has grown to 0.13 since start of June.

 

[B00M 6280]

27 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

They already killed off a lot of the vulnerable olds that die from this.

Hospitalizations are all I care about, and plenty of non-olds have to go to the hospital for this shit.

[B00M 6280]

2 minutes ago, JBJ said:

I plugged TX nunbers into my national model (same assumptions).

I we saw an uptick in transmitivity (0.09 to 0.12) starting around May 22-26, which coincides pretty well with Memorial Weekend and second reopening.  This held flat/slightly declined the rest of that week.

The current surge of cases come from June 5 onward with around 0.20 transmissivity.  Conincides pretty well with mass public gatherings.  June 11th is the last day with full hindcasting as of yesterday's numbers, so we are still seeing "protest surge" right now - if that's what this is.

For perspective: the national average was steady at 0.10 for two months and has grown to 0.13 since start of June.

 

Stupid Q: how do your transmissivity values relate to R? Or can you mathematically define transmissivity to give those values a bit more meaning?

[Post Oak 20184]

19 minutes ago, SHOOTER12 said:

I don't understand how one particular area can do great as far as PPE goes and then the next week go completely to hell.

While Waco made masks mandatory last Saturday, small incorporated around Waco have not. The small town of Belmeade was awesome last week as far as PPE goes, and this week (so far) it seems only about 10-15% are wearing masks.  WTH?

I read in the Trib that Hewitt, Woodway and maybe Robinson were waiting for Waco to make the call and then they would.  I think that's now been enacted.  I've been pleasantly surprised with Deaver and Felton during this whole ordeal.  It seems like they've been out in front of it as much as possible while being anchored by Abbott's cowardice.

Also Bellmead is the Florida of Waco  

[justhookit 4178]

12 minutes ago, JBJ said:

I plugged TX nunbers into my national model (same assumptions).

I we saw an uptick in transmitivity (0.09 to 0.12) starting around May 22-26, which coincides pretty well with Memorial Weekend and second reopening.  This held flat/slightly declined the rest of that week.

The current surge of cases come from June 5 onward with around 0.20 transmissivity.  Conincides pretty well with mass public gatherings.  June 11th is the last day with full hindcasting as of yesterday's numbers, so we are still seeing "protest surge" right now - if that's what this is.

For perspective: the national average was steady at 0.10 for two months and has grown to 0.13 since start of June.

 

Again though, if the protests were causing this spike we should be seeing huge spikes in other areas of the country that had even more massive protests than Texas did. We aren’t seeing that though or have I missed that? Honestly asking.

As to the bolded part I expect that increase to continue as we see reopening all over the country. Shit, I’d be fucking thrilled if the protests were causing this. Hell im hoping for it. But everything I’m seeing is telling me that’s not the issue.

 

[JBJ 3648]

1 minute ago, justhookit said:

Again though, if the protests were causing this spike we should be seeing huge spikes in other areas of the country that had even more massive protests than Texas did. We aren’t seeing that though or have I missed that? Honestly asking.

As to the bolded part I expect that increase to continue as we see reopening all over the country. Shit, I’d be fucking thrilled if the protests were causing this. Hell im hoping for it. But everything I’m seeing is telling me that’s not the issue.

 

The national numbers are spiking after 2 months of flatline.  I'm not sure about any other localities.

[Johnny Sack 8397]

2 minutes ago, justhookit said:

Again though, if the protests were causing this spike we should be seeing huge spikes in other areas of the country that had even more massive protests than Texas did. We aren’t seeing that though or have I missed that? Honestly asking.

As to the bolded part I expect that increase to continue as we see reopening all over the country. Shit, I’d be fucking thrilled if the protests were causing this. Hell im hoping for it. But everything I’m seeing is telling me that’s not the issue.

 

California cases are spiking.  5,500+ new cases yesterday.

[justhookit 4178]

1 minute ago, JBJ said:

The national numbers are spiking after 2 months of flatline.  I'm not sure about any other localities.

Ok, let me rephrase that then. The numbers are also spiking in places that didn’t have protests.

i guess my concern is blaming the protests is giving yet another excuse to people that think this is going away, when the reality (to me) appears to be that our return to “normal” is driving this and it’s only going to get worse.

[justhookit 4178]

2 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

California cases are spiking.  5,500+ new cases yesterday.

Minnesota? DC? Pennsylvania? Look I’m not discounting the protests are having an impact. But it’s not driving this thing from what I can observe. Corpus and Port A have more than doubled the total number of cases in 10 days. We had no protests and I can conclude from that, here at minimum, that something else is driving it.

California has been reopening too.

[BradInATX 9208]

5 minutes ago, justhookit said:

Minnesota? DC? Pennsylvania? Look I’m not discounting the protests are having an impact. But it’s not driving this thing from what I can observe. Corpus and Port A have more than doubled the total number of cases in 10 days. We had no protests and I can conclude from that, here at minimum, that something else is driving it.

California has been reopening too.

He's not going to respond. His entire purpose here is to make hyper-partisan drive-by posts then slink away when called out with facts. Rinse, repeat.

Still waiting on him to address this absolute destruction of a stupid point he attempted to make 18 hours ago that "We have plenty of Texas doctors and nurses"

 

 

Edited June 23, 2020 by BradInATX

[JBJ 3648]

48 minutes ago, B00M said:

Stupid Q: how do your transmissivity values relate to R? Or can you mathematically define transmissivity to give those values a bit more meaning?

Simplified: R = transmissivity * infectious period

More precise: R = transmissivity calculated over the infectious period / infectious period * serial interval.

Basically, any change in one has a roughly equivalent change in the other.

Edited June 23, 2020 by JBJ

[C-Man 27041]

10 minutes ago, justhookit said:

Minnesota? DC? Pennsylvania? Look I’m not discounting the protests are having an impact. But it’s not driving this thing from what I can observe. Corpus and Port A have more than doubled the total number of cases in 10 days. We had no protests and I can conclude from that, here at minimum, that something else is driving it.

California has been reopening too.

Has nothing to do with protesters, at least in Texas. We had thousands of protesters at most over a period of a few days. However, we've had millions out and about as restrictions have been lifted, going to restaurants, going to bars, acting like it's all over. It ain't.

[B00M 6280]

3 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Simplified: R = transmissivity * infectious period

More precise: R = transmissivity calculated over the serial interval.

Basically, any change in one has a roughly equivalent change in the other.

Thanks. How long are you assuming for an infectious period? 

[Bevo 13525]

Is this the no politics thread?

[WBT 20415]

I'm sure the protests didn't help but there's not going to be a 1:1 correlation with any one thing.  Reopening, protests, complacency/boredom with staying home and wearing mask, and countless other things have probably contributed.

[Hate 20103]

Minnesota? DC? Pennsylvania? Look I’m not discounting the protests are having an impact. But it’s not driving this thing from what I can observe. Corpus and Port A have more than doubled the total number of cases in 10 days. We had no protests and I can conclude from that, here at minimum, that something else is driving it.
California has been reopening too.

I think that the message is that wherever, whenever, and for whatever reason people get together in close spaces the virus is going to be transmitted fairly easily. That goes for restaurants, bars, and crowded public streets. I think it is wise to avoid any place where there are more than just a few people gathering.

[JBJ 3648]

4 minutes ago, B00M said:

Thanks. How long are you assuming for an infectious period? 

Transmissivity is calculated directly, which is why I chose it.

Average Infectious period estimates range from 4-12 days. Average serial intervals 5-11 days.  My model is on the higher end of both (~11 days).

Edited June 23, 2020 by JBJ

[BrazilHorn 6576]

ok so after the crazy 506 new cases on 6/21 there were only 129 new cases on 6/22. So hopefully that trend will continue.

21 new admits 6/22 with a total of 181 hospitalized currently. ICU use has jumped up big with 84 on 6/21 & 86 on 6/22.

The real interesting piece will be to track the demographic data. The main group (data only shown through 6/16) that has been rising has been Hispanic (non-white).

Curious to see breakdown by age and race in coming weeks.

 

Edited June 23, 2020 by BrazilHorn

[SHOOTER12 8788]

49 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

I read in the Trib that Hewitt, Woodway and maybe Robinson were waiting for Waco to make the call and then they would.  I think that's now been enacted.  I've been pleasantly surprised with Deaver and Felton during this whole ordeal.  It seems like they've been out in front of it as much as possible while being anchored by Abbott's cowardice.

Also Bellmead is the Florida of Waco  

I'm pretty sure that Hewitt and Woodway pulled the trigger immediately after Waco.  Bellmead is pretty bad.  I'm sure Waco has some "good" areas, but I've yet to see any.

[LurkingHorn 1044]

 

[Captainant 27442]

Shot

4 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

ok so after the crazy 506 new cases on 6/21 there were only 129 new cases on 6/22. So hopefully that trend will continue.

Chaser

1 minute ago, LurkingHorn said:

 

Tuesday is always a bad day because it's the numbers from the weekend catching up

[JBJ 3648]

40 minutes ago, justhookit said:

Ok, let me rephrase that then. The numbers are also spiking in places that didn’t have protests.

i guess my concern is blaming the protests is giving yet another excuse to people that think this is going away, when the reality (to me) appears to be that our return to “normal” is driving this and it’s only going to get worse.

Could be.  If it's protests in isolation, then B should steadily decrease.  If it's all part of a trend of returning to normal, then it will continue to grow or hold steady at the higher rate.

Wait two weeks and ask me again.

[bolverk 29397]

17 minutes ago, WBT said:

I'm sure the protests didn't help but there's not going to be a 1:1 correlation with any one thing.  Reopening, protests, complacency/boredom with staying home and wearing mask, and countless other things have probably contributed.

One role the protests may have had in a rise in cases indirectly is that it possibly normalized the notion that it's safe to go out and about. I dunno. That's just sheer speculation on my part.

[Skipper 6103]

8 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Shot

Chaser

Tuesday is always a bad day because it's the numbers from the weekend catching up

Right.  It's certainly played out that way in Dallas.  So I'm especially interested in today's data considering Sunday was pretty high and Monday set a record.  If today is a 'catch up' day it could be ugly.  Of course, it could be that we are finally getting better data reporting.  Guess we'll see.

[justhookit 4178]

19 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Is this the no politics thread?

While I realize the protests are a political issue, it’s also possible to discuss the protests relative impact on new case numbers without turning that discussion into a political argument. So far so good.

[justhookit 4178]

2 hours ago, justhookit said:

At this point I’m actually ok with the message coming just from the city/county level. We seem to be trending that direction and so far I’m liking what I am seeing.

Oops. Wtf?

“Port Aransas Mayor Charles Bujan has rescinded his order to require  employees and customers at Port Aransas businesses to wear face masks when social distancing is not feasible.

Bujan announced the face masks requirement on Friday, June 19, and he rescinded the order today, Tuesday, June 23.

The news about Bujan’s order being rescinded comes at the heels of a new order that was signed by Nueces County Judge Barbara Canales on Monday, June 22.

Canales’ order “does the same thing as mine,” Bujan said.

However, Bujan’s order was slated to go into effect at 12:01 p.m. on Wednesday, June 24, and it was to end on July 1. The new county order requiring masks goes into effect at midnight on Friday, June 26, and it will end on Friday, July 10, unless it is extended or modified by Canales.

Face masks will be required in commercial “big box” businesses or in county- or city-operated facilities. Masks are recommended to be worn inside all other “commercial entities.” Children under the age of 10 aren’t required to wear masks.

The order also insists that folks should reserve surgical and N-95 masks for healthcare workers and first responders.”

https://www.portasouthjetty.com/articles/mayor-rescinds-order-requiring-face-masks-county-judge-signs-new-order/

 

[Surly Bevo 24695]

Is Texas still reporting positives from both the nasal swab active infection test as well as the antibody test?  I may be mistaken but at some point I seem to be remember that being the case (and there being some ridicule for that). 

[Scary Stranger 1712]

41 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

ok so after the crazy 506 new cases on 6/21 there were only 129 new cases on 6/22. So hopefully that trend will continue.

21 new admits 6/22 with a total of 181 hospitalized currently. ICU use has jumped up big with 84 on 6/21 & 86 on 6/22.

The real interesting piece will be to track the demographic data. The main group (data only shown through 6/16) that has been rising has been Hispanic (non-white).

Curious to see breakdown by age and race in coming weeks.

 

I've heard from a Dr. friend in Dallas that a lot of the new cases are people coming back from Mexico and bringing the virus along. 

[Viper 12025]

12 minutes ago, justhookit said:

Oops. Wtf?

“Port Aransas Mayor Charles Bujan has rescinded his order to require  employees and customers at Port Aransas businesses to wear face masks when social distancing is not feasible.

Bujan announced the face masks requirement on Friday, June 19, and he rescinded the order today, Tuesday, June 23.

The news about Bujan’s order being rescinded comes at the heels of a new order that was signed by Nueces County Judge Barbara Canales on Monday, June 22.

Canales’ order “does the same thing as mine,” Bujan said.

However, Bujan’s order was slated to go into effect at 12:01 p.m. on Wednesday, June 24, and it was to end on July 1. The new county order requiring masks goes into effect at midnight on Friday, June 26, and it will end on Friday, July 10, unless it is extended or modified by Canales.

Face masks will be required in commercial “big box” businesses or in county- or city-operated facilities. Masks are recommended to be worn inside all other “commercial entities.” Children under the age of 10 aren’t required to wear masks.

The order also insists that folks should reserve surgical and N-95 masks for healthcare workers and first responders.”

https://www.portasouthjetty.com/articles/mayor-rescinds-order-requiring-face-masks-county-judge-signs-new-order/

 

i don't get it, what's wrong with this? 

[justhookit 4178]

13 minutes ago, Viper said:

i don't get it, what's wrong with this? 

Well, if the mayor was worried about his order conflicting with the county order, the logical thing to do would be to rescind it once the county order goes into effect. Instead he’s letting 2 more days go by without masks. Likely what is really going on is a lot of businesses were complaining so he’s just placing the blame on someone else. It’s politics.

More broadly it’s just another example of our politicians at all levels not being on the same page.

edit- the county order is also much less restrictive than the city one. This will basically do nothing.

Edited June 23, 2020 by justhookit

[BTW 370]

95 new cases in Midland County yesterday up from a previous high of 35 new cases.  The graph looks similar to the Aggy football enthusiasm meter as they run through their non conference schedule each year:

 

 

Fortunately, it looks like most of the current cases are the relatively lower risk 'under 40' crowd:

What is the general consensus here regarding the idea that these younger (and in theory) healthier folks getting it is a good thing to start building the herd immunity?  The presupposition being that like the flu, most of us will get it eventually.

Edited June 23, 2020 by BTW

[Bartles 769]

Fuck that is my consensus. Younger people are already being hospitalized more, and the long term effects can be nasty even if their immediate health isn't that bad. And maybe most importantly, they keep spreading it to more vulnerable groups like me.

[atomheartbevo 89409]

4 hours ago, BradInATX said:

To be fair, once you get a whiff of second hand smoke it acts just like Covid and you instantly become a smoker.

Next up let's tackle the bro country music epidemic. I hear that if you catch an earful of it from walking by a honky tonk, you run to the nearest Walmart to buy a Luke Bryan shirt. It's that contagious.

We should give Ken Burns a National Congressional Medal of Appreciation for cutting off his Country Music PBS series before it went too much into the Bro era.

[Captainant 27442]

Yikes, not going to make anyone happy to not be able to take their European vacation

 

[Tailgate 3018]

Ran into a guy last night who said he had it and still couldn’t taste anything. Some weird shit.

Edited June 23, 2020 by Tailgate

[NAVY 6738]

3 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Yikes, not going to make anyone happy to not be able to take their European vacation

 

Just throw it on the pile of shit to be unhappy about. 
 

Also, it's the right thing to do. 

[BTW 370]

8 minutes ago, Bartles said:

Fuck that is my consensus. Younger people are already being hospitalized more, and the long term effects can be nasty even if their immediate health isn't that bad. And maybe most importantly, they keep spreading it to more vulnerable groups like me.

Do you have different data than I do?

[utee94 15745]

1 minute ago, NAVY said:

Just throw it on the pile of shit to be unhappy about. 
 

Also, it's the right thing to do. 

Lulz, I don't want anyone from Europe coming over here either, so I'll call it even.

[NAVY 6738]

1 minute ago, BTW said:

Do you have different data than I do?

Discretizing 18 to 49 together is removing some of the storytelling from the data. 

[BrazilHorn 6576]

26 minutes ago, Scary Stranger said:

I've heard from a Dr. friend in Dallas that a lot of the new cases are people coming back from Mexico and bringing the virus along. 

No idea about any of that. I just know from looking at Austin's cases since mid April that in terms of hospitalizations, people who identify as Hispanic are increasing while pretty much every other demographic has seen a decline. This data is through 6/16 so a lot can change in a week.

[Brisketexan 104561]

5 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

No idea about any of that. I just know from looking at Austin's cases since mid April that in terms of hospitalizations, people who identify as Hispanic are increasing while pretty much every other demographic has seen a decline. This data is through 6/16 so a lot can change in a week.

Where do you see that data broken down?  That's interesting.

[BrazilHorn 6576]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Where do you see that data broken down?  That's interesting.

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984

The demographic data lags by a week or so the aggregated data

[Anastasis 23393]

Welp. Cancelled our port a trip this morning. Sucks. Gonna try to get down there and stimulate the fuck out of the economy when this shit is over. 

[Pato del Muerto 52340]

20 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Yikes, not going to make anyone happy to not be able to take their European vacation

 

Which is what we should have done in feb or March. But we didn’t. Now they will do it to us, because it’s the right thing to do. 

[Hate 20103]

Why, unless you were in a hotel instead of a condo?

 

Edit: intended for@anastasis

[Brisketexan 104561]

3 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Welp. Cancelled our port a trip this morning. Sucks. Gonna try to get down there and stimulate the fuck out of the economy when this shit is over. 

Really?  Reasoning?  Because we're working on pivoting our planned SOCAL trip to meet up with family to go to South Padre instead.  Plan is for all get-togethers to be outside at the beach or pool, using sun and breeze to our advantage.  Will not be going to any bars or restaurants -- we'll do all meals ourselves, eaten outside.  Because sweet lord, we're all going mad.

We will be in a combo hotel/condo setup, but honestly, the only time in the hotel will be the elevator and lobby as we head to the beach or pool.  We won't be frequenting the restaurant, bar, etc.  Each family will have their own unit, and we'll try to make most time spent together outside.

Edited June 23, 2020 by Brisketexan

[Brisketexan 104561]

10 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984

The demographic data lags by a week or so the aggregated data

How do you see that data over time?  I can just see the current breakdown, not any trends looking at past numbers.

[XYZ 2154]

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

How do you see that data over time?  I can just see the current breakdown, not any trends looking at past numbers.

it’s the chart in the middle. Click on top right corner to enlarge

[Anastasis 23393]

We were staying at a big house with two other families. One member of the other families was exposed to somebody who now has a fever of unknown origin. We are in a window of uncertainty so we just cancelled. Got a 100% refund so they must have a waitlist a mile long.

 So the reasoning was not cases or trends or anything. I think you can definitely do the beach  safely by packing in most of what you need and avoiding the crowds. Our situation was very different. 

[hundredTT 576]

Edit nm

Edited June 23, 2020 by hundredTT