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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6576

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3 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

Stay isolated. Many of these in the high risk population are having the virus brought into the home from other family members.  However, there are some people out that look like they wanted to tempt fate. Then again, good life choices eludes many of the high risk population.

True. Stay away from those in your life that have any of the above conditions. 
 

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whithou
whithou

It has been a disheartening journey and it is only starting. I did not realize how there really is no definitive treatment for the illness until we got COVID patients. When they first come on our unit

South Austin
South Austin

He didn't get COVID.  He just ran out of immunity.

safe sex
safe sex

I cannot stress this enough for anyone who lives in Austin (although this really applies to pretty much everywhere at this point) BE SAFE. What this means is don't get on your motorcycles. D

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6576

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31 minutes ago, XYZ said:

Realistically it’s difficult to be isolated if you live with other people.

True but good example is it was my mom’s birthday yesterday. My family drove to her place and called and had her come to front door and we stayed at curb and said “hello/happy birthday”

Didn’t put her or us at risk  

 

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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I'm at surfside beach, been here all weekend. It's a crowd that uh, let's just say isn't worried about Covid. Have had nothing but pleasant interactions and found everyone respectful. Shot the shit with some Houston good old boys next to us on the beach from a distance for awhile, and they were completely fine when I asked them to give us a few more feet of space when we were talking, because the wife is pregnant. Almost 100% mask compliance in stores, with a few who only had the mouth covered.

 

The internet is like an amplifier for assholery. Real life ain't all that bad.

 

 

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Captainant

Captainant 27468

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1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

I'm at surfside beach, been here all weekend. It's a crowd that uh, let's just say isn't worried about Covid. Have had nothing but pleasant interactions and found everyone respectful. Shot the shit with some Houston good old boys next to us on the beach from a distance for awhile, and they were completely fine when I asked them to give us a few more feet of space when we were talking, because the wife is pregnant. Almost 100% mask compliance in stores, with a few who only had the mouth covered.

 

The internet is like an amplifier for assholery. Real life ain't all that bad.

 

 

Down in Port Oconnor this weekend there was a solid 50% mask usage rate from what I saw at the liquor store and speedy stop. Fewer folks wearing masks at the fishing tournament weigh in though

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fattyflattie

fattyflattie 4636

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28 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Down in Port Oconnor this weekend there was a solid 50% mask usage rate from what I saw at the liquor store and speedy stop. Fewer folks wearing masks at the fishing tournament weigh in though

I figured as much when I was down there a few weeks ago. I know the elderly keeper of Clark’s was concerned. She locked the door to the office during hours and would talk thru the door, which was fine with us. She met a few of the high risk categories.  No interactions other than that tho. 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104631

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I'm at surfside beach, been here all weekend. It's a crowd that uh, let's just say isn't worried about Covid. Have had nothing but pleasant interactions and found everyone respectful. Shot the shit with some Houston good old boys next to us on the beach from a distance for awhile, and they were completely fine when I asked them to give us a few more feet of space when we were talking, because the wife is pregnant. Almost 100% mask compliance in stores, with a few who only had the mouth covered.
 
The internet is like an amplifier for assholery. Real life ain't all that bad.
 
 

We’re in Surfside too. Had to hit HEB and Buccee’s, close to 100% mask wearing. On the beach, people aren’t right up next to us, so that’s good.

Kind of surprised, actually, because I’ve seen plenty of folks I would expect to think it’s a hoax wearing masks. Of course, the stores require them, so at some point, the social pressure is probably sufficient.
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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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We’re in Surfside too. Had to hit HEB and Buccee’s, close to 100% mask wearing. On the beach, people aren’t right up next to us, so that’s good.

 

Kind of surprised, actually, because I’ve seen plenty of folks I would expect to think it’s a hoax wearing masks. Of course, the stores require them, so at some point, the social pressure is probably sufficient.

Nice. I'm the very buzzed guy with the Academy easy up. Come find me and I'll throw you a beer.
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Trey3216

Trey3216 15325

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1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:


Heat of the day. Back up at the house. May take a short nap, then head back down. Trying not to drink too much, early wake up for fishing tomorrow.

Just get drunk and then eat some sashimi for breakfast prior to fishing.  Works every time.  

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GreenspointTexas

GreenspointTexas 9568

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5 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

Another data point I have been tracking is the 7 day average of patients on a ventilator. It is absolutely going the wrong direction. So while total hospitalizations are moving downwards (high of 480 on July 20th to now 222 on Aug 1st) the % of those hospitalized on a ventilator has increased steadily.

W/E June 21st - 15.87%

W/E June 28th - 16.82%

W/E July 3rd - 16.78%

W/E July 10th - 18.52%

W/E July 17th - 20.20%

W/E July 24th - 23.57%

W/E July 31st - 25.05%

You do not see a corresponding increase in the % of those hospitalized in ICU however. Data here actually shows a decline from the low 40% of people hospitalized requiring ICU to the low 30s from late June to Aug 1st. What I can tell is that for last month ~63% of all ICU patients end up on ventilation.

So figure a little over of third of all patients end up in ICU and of those around two thirds on ventilation.

Again if you are old, obese or have significant underlying auto immune/respiratory conditions stay home.

Lol thats last sentence is literally covers like 75% of americans

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6576

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9 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Lol thats last sentence is literally covers like 75% of americans

Yep - and that is why CV19 will keep running through the US like a hot knife through butter.

Main thing IMO helping Travis county is keeping bars closed. Not sure how long that will stay in place but I see this being a series of fits and starts along the way.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89452

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This is the concern with kids, and we saw it with camps here in Texas

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/31/health/georgia-camp-coronavirus-outbreak-cdc-trnd/?iid=ob_lockedrail_topeditorial

Quote

A Covid-19 outbreak at a Georgia sleep away camp this June could have implications for school reopening, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said. 

The camp had followed some but not all of the CDC mitigation steps against the spread of the new coronavirus -- but was not enough to keep campers and staff free of illness.

One advantage, we are a little smarter:

Quote

According to the study, published Friday in the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, the camp adopted most of the components outlined in the CDC document "Suggestions for Youth and Summer Camps," but it did not make campers wear cloth face masks -- only the staff. 

Nor did the camp open windows and doors for increased ventilation In buildings.

Quote

Additionally, camp attendees engaged in "daily vigorous singing and cheering," which might have contributed to transmission.

But it spread fast, or was already everywhere

Quote

The study breaks down what happened at the camp when it opened its doors in mid-June to more than 600 campers and more than 120 staffers. 

Five days after the start of orientation and two days after the start of the camp session, a teenage staff member fell ill and left camp; the next day that person was confirmed to have Covid-19. Officials began sending campers home that day and closed the camp three days later.

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All in all, test results were available for 344 (58%) of the 597 attendees from Georgia; among these, 260 (76%) were positive. At least 44% -- 260 of 597 -- got infected, although the researchers say not everyone was tested so the rate could be even higher. 

Quote

Asymptomatic infection was common and may have played a role in the spread, the study authors said. Among 136 cases with available information on symptoms, 36 patients -- 26% -- reported no symptoms. Of the 100 who reported symptoms, those most commonly reported were subjective or documented fever, headache and sore throat.

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Interestingly, a higher percentage of the youngest children tested positive: 51% among those age 6-10 years, 44% among those age 11-17 years, and 33% among those aged 18-21 years tested positive.

"This investigation adds to the body of evidence demonstrating that children of all ages are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection and, contrary to early reports, might play an important role in transmission," the study authors wrote.

 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89452

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This seems interesting.

https://www.kvue.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/covid-tests-fbi/273-c2178109-d502-414c-8033-6efb72252ba5

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The FBI on Saturday posted a warning on social media to Texans who may have gone to a holistic healthcare practitioner in New Braunfels to get tested for the novel coronavirus: Those tests "should not have been used" in the first place.

The warning applies to those who went to get tested at Living Health Holistic Healthcare in the Hill Country community. According to a tweet from local FBI authorities, law enforcement have "reason to suspect the COVID-19 tests administered at the facility should not have been used to diagnose or rule out an active COVID-19 infection." 

Yeah.....I'm not going to get tested for anything at a clinic with the word "holistic" in its name.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89452

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It would be nice if this kind of stuff got more people to wear masks

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/31/tony-tinderholdt-texas-coronavirus/

Quote

State Rep. Tony Tinderholt told The Texas Tribune he is recovering from a serious case of COVID-19, which he thought last week might kill him. His wife and two of his children also tested positive.

Quote

State Rep. Tony Tinderholt was hospitalized last week after testing positive for the novel coronavirus, the lawmaker confirmed Friday to The Texas Tribune, marking the first known case involving a member of the Texas Legislature.

"I truly thought last Friday was gonna be my last," Tinderholt, an Arlington Republican, said in a text message to the Tribune. Tinderholt said his wife and two of his children also tested positive for the virus, though their symptoms were less severe.

Quote

Tinderholt said he is recovering after receiving medical treatment from a North Texas doctor. He said he spent several hours in the hospital and received an IV and medication there. He and his family wore masks every time they went out in public because they felt it was the right thing to do, he said.

Quote

Tinderholt said he was considered at risk for the virus due to his titanium aortic heart valve.

Quote

Tinderholt's first day of symptoms, he said, consisted of mild joint pain that soon turned into severe pain accompanied by bad headaches and a loss of taste and smell. Now, in recovery, he said he has nausea and a cough with slight breathing difficulties. He said he does not know how he caught it.

 

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6576

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Travis County hitting a 200-300 daily case kind of buoyancy since July 17th (minus one day (which seemed to be a data dump)). Obviously back to school is a looming change to current state.

 

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 8/2 vs 8/1 1 7 15 74 64 42 32 9 1 2 247
% of Daily Change 0.40% 2.83% 6.07% 29.96% 25.91% 17.00% 12.96% 3.64% 0.40% 0.81%  
% of Total Cases 0.51% 2.75% 7.69% 27.01% 21.77% 16.43% 11.67% 6.38% 3.21% 2.58%   21,214
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UT_OB1

UT_OB1 2200

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41 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

Harris County not increasing or decreasing really since June 15 - just bouncing around in the 1500-2000 per day range.

 

image.thumb.png.b23f0d9d348b61265933bdb834710e1f.png

On a positive note though, hospitalizations per day have decreased week over week after peaking the week of 6/29 per TCM.  Their case growth from the same page shows a 7 day avg peak around 7/15 and then started decreasing, but there is a small uptick the past few days.  Hopefully that doesn't turn around the hospitalizations.  

spacer.png

 

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Liquor and Poker

Liquor and Poker 3659

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Can someone explain this graph to me - looks good but the explanation could be less opaque and seemingly contradictory to the one I posted above (both from the same site):

Yellow Graph – Epi Curve of Cases Over Time

The Epi Curve provides an accurate picture of the level of community spread and infection rates.  This graph shows the final number of positive lab-confirmed cases on each date. Epi curve of cases over time is the date the sample was tested and confirmed positive by the lab. When HCPH receives the positive-lab confirmed case, our epidemiologists review and assign each case based on the date of the laboratory results.

 

More here, I still don't get it:

 

The Epi Curve shows the COVID-19 disease trend based on information collected by epidemiologists when they investigate a lab-confirmed positive case.   Epidemiologists collect information in the following order:

  • Date of disease onset:  The date symptoms began, as reported by the individual.  This date may fall before date of diagnosis.
  • Date of diagnosis:  The date of initial diagnosis by a medical professional.
  • Date of laboratory result:  The date the laboratory confirms the positive test result.
  • Date of first report to the public health system:  The date the public health department receives the positive lab-confirmed result.

image.png

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Mitch Cumsteen

Mitch Cumsteen 18523

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21 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

Can someone explain this graph to me - looks good but the explanation could be less opaque and seemingly contradictory to the one I posted above (both from the same site):

Here... I re-positioned the bar graph you posted onto another format. This should make it much easier to understand. Hope this helps.

missle covid.png

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UT_OB1

UT_OB1 2200

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

no sure i agree 100% with your graph analysis there lou.  i think a running average would pretty clearly show a substantial increase.

From TMC hospital systems, which is for the greater Houston area.  Not exactly Harris county, but a large chunk of the population and they do a pretty good job with presentation.  

spacer.png

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Liquor and Poker

Liquor and Poker 3659

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

no sure i agree 100% with your graph analysis there lou.  i think a running average would pretty clearly show a substantial increase.

Yes - the point I was making was that there was no decrease.  But there's also no clear "jump" like there was from May to those numbers.  I think the best read is an increase but not "exponential" (to use a word that is used too much lately).

What I'm trying to understand is how to square that graph with the yellow one.  Harris County puts both out and one looks like things are really getting better, and the other doesn't.   The explanation for the "good" one seems to contradict the "bad" one.

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elfenix

elfenix 34172

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Posted
On 7/31/2020 at 9:16 AM, Neonmoon said:

Yeah, other countries can do things the US won't/can't. Look at China, (not that I agree with their bullshit numbers), but they were literally locking people in their own homes. They weren't having debates about a mask. The US can't do what they did. The controlled their outbreak through totalitarian measures. Places like South Korea, Taiwan, Japan used a few measures that the US doesn't have. Culturally, they already are anti-germ, they all believe in masks, already wore them regularly. They had hard lockdowns, some more than other, but they followed social distancing, masks, etc back in January and February. They had big data tracking people phones, and social shame people who didn't follow the rules. They weren't having people living their best lives in March and trying to reopen a month later. Again, the US is culturally opposite. They don't give a fuck, and half the country thinks it's not real.

afaik south korea didn't have a hard lockdown. 

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SHOOTER12

SHOOTER12 8789

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On 7/29/2020 at 10:02 PM, atomheartbevo said:

Louie Gohmert, a Representative from Texas who is known to eschew the wearing of a mask, and has even mocked the idea, and said he would only wear a mask if he was ever infected.  This morning, he was tested before making a fundraising trip to Texas, and well....

spacer.png

 

Being a highly educated disaster scientist (I'm guessing, I don't know his background), he had this to say on the matter:

"I can't help but wonder if by keeping a mask on and keeping it in place, I might have put some germs - some virus - on to the mask and breathed it in," he told Texas station KETK.

He respects his staff enough that he put on a mask and returned to his office, where he informed them in-person that he had it. 

...and we wonder why the state and nation are going to shit.  Let's rationalize everything.

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SHOOTER12

SHOOTER12 8789

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On 8/2/2020 at 2:29 PM, BradInATX said:
On 8/2/2020 at 2:24 PM, bad_teammate said:
Stop posting and enjoy the beach you fuckin' nerds lol

Wife and toddler are napping. I'm drinking with the dog on the beach. It's glorious

You better have had a mask on that mutt son, lol

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Stella Link

Stella Link 534

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Posted
2 hours ago, Newdoc said:

Karen on FB told me they didn't so there's that. Plus if we just hang on for 3 more months this thing will go away immediately after the election.

Plus, it's August, and the real summer heat is now starting to kick in.  This COVID thing should be mostly gone by the first kick-off....

(Right??.... Right??)

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StruggleBus

StruggleBus 3922

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Posted
On 8/2/2020 at 1:36 PM, BradInATX said:

I'm at surfside beach, been here all weekend. It's a crowd that uh, let's just say isn't worried about Covid. Have had nothing but pleasant interactions and found everyone respectful. Shot the shit with some Houston good old boys next to us on the beach from a distance for awhile, and they were completely fine when I asked them to give us a few more feet of space when we were talking, because the wife is pregnant. Almost 100% mask compliance in stores, with a few who only had the mouth covered.

 

The internet is like an amplifier for assholery. Real life ain't all that bad.

 

 

You have a wife?

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