COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[Chewbacca 7827]

1 minute ago, Johnny Sack said:

Another straw man.  I’ve not once said it was equivalent to the flu.  Not once.  And I’ve worn a mask in public indoor spaces since March.  I have said it’s a nothingburger for kids and teens.  And that is true.  
 

You aren’t interested in an honest discussion because you and Hollywood only misrepresent what I have said and then knock down easy straw mans.  Neither of you are particularly bright.  But at least be honest.  

Sure, it's a nothingburger for kids and teens until they pass it on to an older (or elderly) relative.  Or do you think kids live in bubbles and only interact with other kids?  How about teachers?  Are they people in your world?

[gmr548 16681]

will be a test case
 

Oh there will be several test cases

[Chewbacca 7827]

2 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

Congrats on that accomplishment.  Go fuck yourself.  

If you didn't want the answer, you shouldn't have asked.  How is grandma's mountain house, anyway?

[hayden_horn 11401]

1 minute ago, Chewbacca said:

Sure, it's a nothingburger for kids and teens until they pass it on to an older (or elderly) relative.  Or do you think kids live in bubbles and only interact with other kids?  How about teachers?  Are they people in your world?

also, it's not like kids are out and about over the course of the summer as though things are normal. my kids have left the house for dental and ortho appointments, and to go to the creek behind our neighborhood. they are stuck together. they aren't exposed to this thing, and really haven't been since march when the schools closed.

i really do not understand how this is not part of the "kids don't get sick" analysis.

[Dnaguy 12572]

3 hours ago, gmr548 said:

4 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11566015/

It'd be pretty 2020 for an ED drug to be a big breakthrough. Except we'd all be walking around with permanent boners, bc 2020.

[utee94 16065]

Colorado talk on the Texas thread not going away.  Will you two get a room and STFU? 

[Johnny Sack 8397]

16 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

Sure, it's a nothingburger for kids and teens until they pass it on to an older (or elderly) relative.  Or do you think kids live in bubbles and only interact with other kids?  How about teachers?  Are they people in your world?

Older and high risk people should stay at home.  I’ve said that plenty.  
 

Shooter said his 18 old granddaughter had it.  I posted she would be fine and contracting the flu would be more dangerous than that to her.  
 

Nowhere did I suggest she wasn’t a risk to others like elderly. I simply said she would be fine.  And she will.  
 

Keep up the straw man.  

Edited August 5, 2020 by Johnny Sack

[Chewbacca 7827]

19 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

Older and high risk people should stay at home.  I’ve said that plenty.  
 

Shooter said his 18 old granddaughter had it.  I posted she would be fine and contracting the flu would be more dangerous than that to her.  
 

Nowhere did I suggest she wasn’t a risk to others like elderly. I simply said she would be fine.  And she will.  
 

Keep up the straw man.  

Great, so Grandma, who lives with her daugher's family, stays home.  Daughter's kids go to school and get COVID.  Grandma gets it and dies.  Or maybe it's dad, who is in poor health, that gets it.

 

You can't separate kids from the rest of society.  If they get it, they will pass it on.

[smoky 842]

 
You can't separate kids from the rest of society.  If they get it, they will pass it on.

Isn't that what we've been doing since mid March?

[Johnny Sack 8397]

31 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

Great, so Grandma, who lives with her daugher's family, stays home.  Daughter's kids go to school and get COVID.  Grandma gets it and dies.  Or maybe it's dad, who is in poor health, that gets it.

 

You can't separate kids from the rest of society.  If they get it, they will pass it on.

What part of high risk people should stay away from everyone are you struggling with?

[Chewbacca 7827]

1 minute ago, Johnny Sack said:

What part of high risk people should stay away from everyone are you struggling with?

What part of everyone needs to be staying away from others not in their immediate family are you struggling with?  Don't answer - we know you're not abiding by that one (open the back door and let all the kids play together, right?).

 

How does dad stay away from his kid assuming they live in the same house?

[Hefeweizen 5416]

The problem is people have proven their stupidity on this.  155k dead is all the proof you need.  So opening schools when the disease is rampant is at best premature.  Even if the kids are fine, the custodians, parents, teachers, corches, are all going to get enhanced exposure.  
 

But hey, as long as the 18 and under cohort is healthy we’re good.

[Js1 86934]

38 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

Great, so Grandma, who lives with her daugher's family, stays home.  Daughter's kids go to school and get COVID.  Grandma gets it and dies.  Or maybe it's dad, who is in poor health, that gets it.

 

You can't separate kids from the rest of society.  If they get it, they will pass it on.

What if you just quarantine them in the servant quarters?  Maybe an empty East wing in your mansion. 

[Johnny Sack 8397]

4 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

What part of everyone needs to be staying away from others not in their immediate family are you struggling with?  Don't answer - we know you're not abiding by that one (open the back door and let all the kids play together, right?).

 

How does dad stay away from his kid assuming they live in the same house?

Quarantining those who are high risk is a fraction of the cost of putting tens of millions out of work and crashing our GDP.  
 

Is finding another place to live for high risk a bigger burden than taking the income from tens of millions.  
 

High risk should quarantine until this is over.  Everyone else should get on with life.  

[Johnny Sack 8397]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

What if you just quarantine them in the servant quarters?  Maybe an empty East wing in your mansion. 

Nah.  It’s better for mom and dad to shelter in place and not work.  That’s cheaper than getting the small percentage of multi generation households to rent an apartment somewhere.  

[Chewbacca 7827]

1 minute ago, Johnny Sack said:

Quarantining those who are high risk is a fraction of the cost of putting tens of millions out of work and crashing our GDP.  
 

Is finding another place to live for high risk a bigger burden than taking the income from tens of millions.  
 

High risk should quarantine until this is over.  Everyone else should get on with life.  

If grandma is already living with one of her children, I think it's a safe bet that they don't have the money to quarantine her somewhere else for the next 6 months.  And if it's dad who is high risk, who moves out?  Him or the kids?

 

Not everyone was born into generational wealth.  Lots of people are struggling just to get by.

[Johnny Sack 8397]

9 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

If grandma is already living with one of her children, I think it's a safe bet that they don't have the money to quarantine her somewhere else for the next 6 months.  And if it's dad who is high risk, who moves out?  Him or the kids?

 

Not everyone was born into generational wealth.  Lots of people are struggling just to get by.

But they do have the money not to work and to have their small businesses shut down?  That cheaper than finding a room for grandma?

[safe sex 11913]

Most teens will be fine. Most isn't all, especially when it's your family member that is the exception. I don't have links to any science of a high level of evidence for my feelings on this, just a lot of personal experience and anecdotal evidence from other nurses and former patients who have kept in touch with our COVID unit. I will also say that I have not had a COVID patient in their teens yet (most go to DCMC), but I have taken care of patients in their early-mid twenties with no pre-existing medical issues that would normally hamper their bodies' ability to heal. 

The amount of damage and that COVID does to your lungs and the time it takes for a healthy person to recuperate seems to be closely correlated with how much oxygen support you require, and how early you started receiving oxygen therapy. There are many different methods for use to give you oxygen, but after the first one (nasal cannula, what you've all seen in medical TV shows/movies), they become quickly and increasingly uncomfortable to cooperate with. 

Max rate for a basic nasal cannula is 6L/min. After that, we may try a simple mask, or a non-rebreather mask (depending on your respiratory rate) to increase that to 10L/min. If you still can't maintain your oxygen saturation but your breathing pattern is acceptable, we'll put you on what's called high-flow nasal cannula. This lets us push up to 60L/min of up to 100% FiO2 through your nostrils. We heat and moisturize the oxygen, but it's still dries the fuck out of your nostril mucosa, is loud, and limits your movement. If all of that doesn't start to help, we may try BiPAP, which is a full face mask that forces air into your lungs at high pressure. Some people can tolerate it okay, some can't. There's also evidence that BiPAP should be contraindicated in COVID patients. I haven't seen a COVID pt on BiPAP in a long while. Failing all of those options, you will be intubated, and with COVID there's a good chance you will not be coming off of that ventilator with our current treatment standards. You might, but we will do our best to arrange virtual communications with family members before we tube you, because there's a significant chance it will be the last time you see or speak with them. We might not be able to do so, because you might be decompensating too quickly. If we are unable to get you off of the ventilator, you will receive a tracheostomy (and possibly a PEG tube) as an additional step to help that process. If you have made it this far, your kidneys are almost certainly failing. Your skin is swollen with extravascular fluid, leading to your skin tearing and sores forming in places where skin is stretched tightly over bony parts of your body. We try our best, but they are not 100% preventable. Your blood looks almost black and is quite thick. You might throw a clot and it might give you a stroke or end up being a PE, both of which, when you're a COVID patient, will result in either death or even more serious impairment because we cannot treat you as quickly as we otherwise would. There is no emergency in a pandemic. Not even for CPR. You are stuck in a nightmare of delirium (and possibly chemically paralyzed), where maybe every time we have to catheterize you (if you aren't on dialysis already) your mind compensates for the sedated experience in your brain and tells you you are being raped. Or that we're skinning you while bathing you. 

Your lungs probably look like rotting raisins at this point.

Most teens will not require intubation. Most isn't all. Some will require just nasal cannula, and some will require every intervention up to a vent and trach/PEG. From what patients and nurses have told me, even having minor respiratory issues (requiring no oxygen or just a spit of it) has left them unable to function at their previous levels. One of my close friends at one of my gigs is a long-distance runner, and following her minor case of COVID (no O2 required), she is no longer able to jog more than a block at a time. She can no longer work three shifts in a row. She is in her mid twenties and the (formerly) healthiest person I know. Imagine what is being done to your lungs by the disease when you require 60L/min of oxygen at 30% FiO2, much less 100%. Everyone will be affected by COVID in some way, but there will be a generation of young people with complicated respiratory issues as they age.

A minor symptomatic case of COVID is much more dangerous for anyone than a minor case of the flu.

 

 

[Johnny Sack 8397]

19 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

What part of everyone needs to be staying away from others not in their immediate family are you struggling with?  Don't answer - we know you're not abiding by that one (open the back door and let all the kids play together, right?).

 

How does dad stay away from his kid assuming they live in the same house?

The vast, vast majority of people with kids are young enough to not be high risk.  If they are high risk, stay somewhere else.  Or quarantine in a room in the house at least 6 feet away until cleared.  

[Chewbacca 7827]

1 minute ago, Johnny Sack said:

The vast, vast majority of people with kids are young enough to not be high risk.  If they are high risk, stay somewhere else.  Or quarantine in a room in the house at least 6 feet away until cleared.  

People who do not live together should not be socializing together right now unless you are outside and keeping your distance from each other. Especially kids since they won't wear masks or social distance.  

And yes, opening in person school is a terrible idea right now.

[Hefeweizen 5416]

17 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

The vast, vast majority of people with kids are young enough to not be high risk.  If they are high risk, stay somewhere else.  Or quarantine in a room in the house at least 6 feet away until cleared.  

So now people in their 40s are cool too?  They will just have a little worse flu when their kid brings it home?

 

Cool, cool.  No way this is going to go badly.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8963]

The problem is people have proven their stupidity on this.  155k dead is all the proof you need.  So opening schools when the disease is rampant is at best premature.  Even if the kids are fine, the custodians, parents, teachers, corches, are all going to get enhanced exposure.  

 

But hey, as long as the 18 and under cohort is healthy we’re good.

Well let’s not rake under the rug the fact that a healthy %age of that 155k were likely going to be dead sometime between March and present time if covid didn’t exist. Whether covid accelerated things and they died from it or they died with it are stats we will likely never know.

[Message Board User 12405]

 

[Judge Roybeanbag 11856]

5 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Well let’s not rake under the rug the fact that a healthy %age of that 155k were likely going to be dead sometime between March and present time if covid didn’t exist. Whether covid accelerated things and they died from it or they died with it are stats we will likely never know.

Sorry you killed Gramma, Timmy, she probably would have died at some point anyway, but we’ll likely  never know.

 

Edited August 5, 2020 by Judge Roybeanbag

[MNLonghornFUKM 8963]

Sorry you killed Gramma, Timmy, she probably would have died at some anyway, but we’ll likely  never know.
 

You act like death was going to pause for a lot of these unhealthy people. And if grandmas living with their kids, grandma isn’t in LTC. So grandma must be in pretty good shape. So grandma must have good odds of beating covid.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11856]

6 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

You act like death was going to pause for a lot of these unhealthy people. And if grandmas living with their kids, grandma isn’t in LTC. So grandma must be in pretty good shape. So grandma must have good odds of beating covid.

Ok.  Was just pointing out you’re kinda cavalier with your “oh well they’d die at some point” attitude.  Actually let me rephrase that.  It was a stupid thing for you to say and if you meant something different, you should clarify.

Edited August 5, 2020 by Judge Roybeanbag

[Message Board User 12405]

 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8963]

Ok.  Was just pointing out you’re kinda cavalier with your “oh well they’d die at some point” attitude.  Actually let me rephrase that.  It was a stupid thing for you to say and if you meant something different, you should clarify.

Is it stupid? LTC people have a life span of 12 months once they’re checked in. Who the fuck knows if these deaths in NY/NJ/MA etc were on their way out. It’s obviously no secret those states first hit have by far the most deaths and a good% are from LTC. Hell even about 80% of my states deaths are LTC.

If you’re going to say 155k people would be alive today if it wasn’t for covid, then this is all pointless and your take is stupid

[Judge Roybeanbag 11856]

2 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Is it stupid? LTC people have a life span of 12 months once they’re checked in. Who the fuck knows if these deaths in NY/NJ/MA etc were on their way out. It’s obviously no secret those states first hit have by far the most deaths and a good% are from LTC. Hell even about 80% of my states deaths are LTC.

If you’re going to say 155k people would be alive today if it wasn’t for covid, then this is all pointless and your take is stupid

Ok.  I wasn’t going to say that, but you go right on.  All lives matter, right?

[GreenspointTexas 9933]

Jesus, almost 9k new cases and positivity rate jumps over 2% in 2 days

[Judge Roybeanbag 11856]

Just now, GreenspointTexas said:

Jesus, almost 9k new cases and positivity rate jumps over 2% in 2 days

Where and what?  Don’t just post shit without context.  Jeezus.

[NAVY 6910]

Travis County 202 today. Keep wearing those masks folks. 

https://www.traviscountytx.gov/news/2020/1945-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-information

[MNLonghornFUKM 8963]

Ok.  I wasn’t going to say that, but you go right on.  All lives matter, right?

Hahaha.i mean I wouldn’t mind dying to covid if I couldn’t have visitors, I sat in my room all day waiting to die.

[South Austin 53153]

41 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

Sorry you killed Gramma, Timmy, she probably would have died at some point anyway, but we’ll likely  never know.

 

If she dies, she dies.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11856]

7 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Hahaha.i mean I wouldn’t mind dying to covid if I couldn’t have visitors, I sat in my room all day waiting to die.

I get that, the way you typed it sounded callous, and I took issue with it.  I’ve said a lot of dumb shit here over the years, so I don’t fault you for that.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

1 hour ago, trauma babe said:

Most teens will be fine. Most isn't all, especially when it's your family member that is the exception. I don't have links to any science of a high level of evidence for my feelings on this, just a lot of personal experience and anecdotal evidence from other nurses and former patients who have kept in touch with our COVID unit. I will also say that I have not had a COVID patient in their teens yet (most go to DCMC), but I have taken care of patients in their early-mid twenties with no pre-existing medical issues that would normally hamper their bodies' ability to heal. 

The amount of damage and that COVID does to your lungs and the time it takes for a healthy person to recuperate seems to be closely correlated with how much oxygen support you require, and how early you started receiving oxygen therapy. There are many different methods for use to give you oxygen, but after the first one (nasal cannula, what you've all seen in medical TV shows/movies), they become quickly and increasingly uncomfortable to cooperate with. 

Max rate for a basic nasal cannula is 6L/min. After that, we may try a simple mask, or a non-rebreather mask (depending on your respiratory rate) to increase that to 10L/min. If you still can't maintain your oxygen saturation but your breathing pattern is acceptable, we'll put you on what's called high-flow nasal cannula. This lets us push up to 60L/min of up to 100% FiO2 through your nostrils. We heat and moisturize the oxygen, but it's still dries the fuck out of your nostril mucosa, is loud, and limits your movement. If all of that doesn't start to help, we may try BiPAP, which is a full face mask that forces air into your lungs at high pressure. Some people can tolerate it okay, some can't. There's also evidence that BiPAP should be contraindicated in COVID patients. I haven't seen a COVID pt on BiPAP in a long while. Failing all of those options, you will be intubated, and with COVID there's a good chance you will not be coming off of that ventilator with our current treatment standards. You might, but we will do our best to arrange virtual communications with family members before we tube you, because there's a significant chance it will be the last time you see or speak with them. We might not be able to do so, because you might be decompensating too quickly. If we are unable to get you off of the ventilator, you will receive a tracheostomy (and possibly a PEG tube) as an additional step to help that process. If you have made it this far, your kidneys are almost certainly failing. Your skin is swollen with extravascular fluid, leading to your skin tearing and sores forming in places where skin is stretched tightly over bony parts of your body. We try our best, but they are not 100% preventable. Your blood looks almost black and is quite thick. You might throw a clot and it might give you a stroke or end up being a PE, both of which, when you're a COVID patient, will result in either death or even more serious impairment because we cannot treat you as quickly as we otherwise would. There is no emergency in a pandemic. Not even for CPR. You are stuck in a nightmare of delirium (and possibly chemically paralyzed), where maybe every time we have to catheterize you (if you aren't on dialysis already) your mind compensates for the sedated experience in your brain and tells you you are being raped. Or that we're skinning you while bathing you. 

Your lungs probably look like rotting raisins at this point.

Most teens will not require intubation. Most isn't all. Some will require just nasal cannula, and some will require every intervention up to a vent and trach/PEG. From what patients and nurses have told me, even having minor respiratory issues (requiring no oxygen or just a spit of it) has left them unable to function at their previous levels. One of my close friends at one of my gigs is a long-distance runner, and following her minor case of COVID (no O2 required), she is no longer able to jog more than a block at a time. She can no longer work three shifts in a row. She is in her mid twenties and the (formerly) healthiest person I know. Imagine what is being done to your lungs by the disease when you require 60L/min of oxygen at 30% FiO2, much less 100%. Everyone will be affected by COVID in some way, but there will be a generation of young people with complicated respiratory issues as they age.

A minor symptomatic case of COVID is much more dangerous for anyone than a minor case of the flu.

 

 

did you pick your username because of the trauma people get from reading your posts?

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

2 hours ago, Johnny Sack said:

Older and high risk people should stay at home.  I’ve said that plenty.  

ah yes, the old 'we need to get on with our lives and isolate the olds/infirmed.'

it's been a solid strategy so far, keep fucking that chicken, Deacon.

[South Austin 53153]

10 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

did you pick your username because of the trauma people get from reading your posts?

Username checks out.

[Chewbacca 7827]

42 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

If you’re going to say 155k people would be alive today if it wasn’t for covid, then this is all pointless and your take is stupid

A large percentage of them would still be alive, yes.  

[MNLonghornFUKM 8963]

A large percentage of them would still be alive, yes.  

How are you so sure 6 months into this?

[Chewbacca 7827]

12 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

You will never know this.

We can just look at excess deaths over normal to see how many people 'should' be alive out of that 155k.  So yes, it's something we could get close to.  We won't know exactly, but we can get close.

 

EDIT:  You changed your post.  Here's an article from a statistician who thinks 85-95% of COVID deaths would have otherwise still been alive in 12 months.  Article is a couple months old, though.

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/05/22/1590156197000/Spiegelhalter-says-vast-majority-of-Covid-deaths-would-not-have-occurred-in-coming-year-/

Edited August 6, 2020 by Chewbacca

[Huckleberry 34407]

10 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

We can just look at excess deaths over normal to see how many people 'should' be alive out of that 155k.  So yes, it's something we could get close to.  We won't know exactly, but we can get close.

Excess USA deaths since COVID started are already well over that 155k number so his theory is completely wrong. 

Edited August 6, 2020 by Huckleberry

[DaysOff 8157]

The vast, vast majority of people with kids are young enough to not be high risk.  If they are high risk, stay somewhere else.  Or quarantine in a room in the house at least 6 feet away until cleared.  

The fuck does high risk even mean anymore? Healthy athletes are having heart and lung issues. Is it permanent? Who knows; that's why it's called novel. I know of one pilot that had mild symptoms, but now has an irregular EKG, so he's out for now. Will he get his medical and career back. Unknown? Let's hope it doesn't happen to dad's Gulfstream pilot.

[Chewbacca 7827]

19 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

2 hours ago, Johnny Sack said:

The vast, vast majority of people with kids are young enough to not be high risk.  If they are high risk, stay somewhere else.  Or quarantine in a room in the house at least 6 feet away until cleared.  

The fuck does high risk even mean anymore? Healthy athletes are having heart and lung issues. Is it permanent? Who knows; that's why it's called novel. I know of one pilot that had mild symptoms, but now has an irregular EKG, so he's out for now. Will he get his medical and career back. Unknown? Let's hope it doesn't happen to dad's Gulfstream pilot.

I don't think dad has inherited the jet yet.  Grandma still owns it.  And the mountain house.  That's why he used the Royal We when discussing the mountain house ownership.  If he owned it, he would have said so.

Edited August 6, 2020 by Chewbacca

[Johnny Sack 8397]

2 hours ago, Chewbacca said:

People who do not live together should not be socializing together right now unless you are outside and keeping your distance from each other. Especially kids since they won't wear masks or social distance.  

And yes, opening in person school is a terrible idea right now.

Can we protest outside without keeping our distance from each other?

 

[Telegraph_it 3376]

31 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

I don't think dad has inherited the jet yet.  Grandma still owns it.  And the mountain house.  That's why he used the Royal We when discussing the mountain house ownership.  If he owned it, he would have said so.

If I derive income from property in another state can I technically claim I live there?

Checking with you since you seem like an authority on this. 

[BradInATX 9208]

Imagine being such a spoiled, disconnected silver spooner that you think every high-risk person on Earth can just retire to their spread in Colorado for the next 12-18 months while this blows over.

[Chewbacca 7827]

If I derive income from property in another state can I technically claim I live there?
Checking with you since you seem like an authority on this. 

Not sure why anyone would want to claim they live somewhere they don't.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8963]

We can just look at excess deaths over normal to see how many people 'should' be alive out of that 155k.  So yes, it's something we could get close to.  We won't know exactly, but we can get close.
 
EDIT:  You changed your post.  Here's an article from a statistician who thinks 85-95% of COVID deaths would have otherwise still been alive in 12 months.  Article is a couple months old, though.
https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/05/22/1590156197000/Spiegelhalter-says-vast-majority-of-Covid-deaths-would-not-have-occurred-in-coming-year-/

Thanks hard for me to believe but it may be right. A couple months seems like a lifetime ago tho

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

34 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Imagine being such a spoiled, disconnected silver spooner that you think every high-risk person on Earth can just retire to their spread in Colorado for the next 12-18 months while this blows over.

If you can’t do that, stop making poor decisions.