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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

justhookit

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Skipper

Skipper 6103

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1 hour ago, babysdaddy said:

I thought that however I see daily tweets from Clay Jenkins telling people there are no lines at testing sites.  Anecdotally it seems people are not going to get tested, not that there is a shortage. 

I'm wondering how much of it is related to increased availability of 'rapid testing' (some of which I believe aren't very accurate and are not counted in official results) combined with the prior media coverage of long testing lines/long delays in getting results.  Clay Jenkins said "demand" was down significantly so at least in Dallas it's not like testing isn't available.

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whithou
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It has been a disheartening journey and it is only starting. I did not realize how there really is no definitive treatment for the illness until we got COVID patients. When they first come on our unit

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He didn't get COVID.  He just ran out of immunity.

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I cannot stress this enough for anyone who lives in Austin (although this really applies to pretty much everywhere at this point) BE SAFE. What this means is don't get on your motorcycles. D

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kevwun

kevwun 15653

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Posted (edited)

The infections are going down, but not at the rate tests are dropping.  From the Cloak Room thread, I think the answer has been hit upon.  It is a combination of tests results taking so long that they are pretty much worthless and people just being tired of dealing with the virus. If someone gets exposed, they stay home for 14 days and then go back to work.  If they develop symptoms they may get tested, but if the results take 10 days, it's not worth getting a swab stuck in your brain to a lot of people.

Edited by kevwun
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Skipper

Skipper 6103

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5 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

Maybe (and I realize this is crazy talk) infections are actually going down and only individuals who feel they may be infected are getting tested?

Definitely the case in Dallas.  Hospitalization is low and Dallas hospital lab test positivity rate is lowest it has been since first week of June.  But it is very odd that the overall positivity rate in the state remains high.

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Message Board User

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22 minutes ago, kevwun said:

The infections are going down, but not at the rate tests are dropping.  From the Cloak Room thread, I think the answer has been hit upon.  It is a combination of tests results taking so long that they are pretty much worthless and people just being tired of dealing with the virus. If someone gets exposed, they stay home for 14 days and then go back to work.  If they develop symptoms they may get tested, but if the results take 10 days, it's not worth getting a swab stuck in your brain to a lot of people.

That wouldn’t explain the steady decrease in hospitalizations, even if people are tired of the virus and tired of the testing.

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kevwun

kevwun 15653

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The virus is spreading slower than it was at it's peak.  I think mask usage has firmly kicked in in helping slow it.  We're just not back down to the levels were were at before the opening spike.  This is the same place we were at when we rushed re-opening.

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UT_OB1

UT_OB1 2200

Posted
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33 minutes ago, kevwun said:

The infections are going down, but not at the rate tests are dropping.  From the Cloak Room thread, I think the answer has been hit upon.  It is a combination of tests results taking so long that they are pretty much worthless and people just being tired of dealing with the virus. If someone gets exposed, they stay home for 14 days and then go back to work.  If they develop symptoms they may get tested, but if the results take 10 days, it's not worth getting a swab stuck in your brain to a lot of people.

We've rolled dozens through the clinic at this point as we test now if someone has the sniffles.  It hasn't taken 10 days once.  

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Chewbacca

Chewbacca 7730

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The virus is spreading slower than it was at it's peak.  I think mask usage has firmly kicked in in helping slow it.  We're just not back down to the levels were were at before the opening spike.  This is the same place we were at when we rushed re-opening.
Positivity rate should be dropping as well. That's the strange part.
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Message Board User

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28 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Could be a different, lesser strain going around.

Recent article I’ve read suggests as many as 6 different strains, so there may be some troof in what you said.  @ChiTownDoc has also been saying that the lethality of the virus will eventually lessen, if I’m recalling his argument correctly.

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ChiTownDoc

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36 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

Recent article I’ve read suggests as many as 6 different strains, so there may be some troof in what you said.  @ChiTownDoc has also been saying that the lethality of the virus will eventually lessen, if I’m recalling his argument correctly.

Yep, theoretically virus's want to spread more and be less deadly - does no good to kill your host...not that they actively think but it just makes sense the less deadly strain will spread more than the deadly one.  If you don't understand that, I can't help.  

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Ten Bears

Ten Bears 2479

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Yikes.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/investigations/article/covid-death-toll-houston-tx-texas-higher-data-15478269.php

Quote

Between the beginning of the local pandemic and the end of July, 95,000 deaths were reported in Texas, according to U.S. Centers for Disease Control data. Based on historical mortality records and predictive modeling, government epidemiologists would have expected to see about 82,500 deaths during that time.

The CDC attributed more than 7,100 deaths to COVID-19, but that leaves roughly 5,500 more than expected and with no identified tie to the pandemic. The CDC’s chief of mortality, Dr. Bob Anderson, said these “excess deaths” are likely from a range of pandemic-related problems, including misclassifications because doctors did not initially understand the many ways that COVID-19 affects the circulatory system and results in a stroke or a heart attack.

 

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Saturday in Austin gonna be 108 degrees, pushing 120 with the heat index.  Covid-19 gonna go bye-bye with that kinda heat.  We are truly blessed.  I mean, if you count your lawn starting on fire to spit the sprinkler system.  It was a decent summer overall, given rainfall...but yeah---we about to get fucked.  But at least the virus can't withstand the heat.  

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6576

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Bad day yesterday for the >60 age groups and as death lags infection we should see this manifest itself in those numbers in a couple of weeks. Large day for cases but still in the 200-300 "new normal" that Travis County has been living in with 297.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 8/13 vs 8/12 0 7 19 59 73 42 32 30 13 22 297
% of Daily Change 0.00% 2.36% 6.40% 19.87% 24.58% 14.14% 10.77% 10.10% 4.38% 7.41%  
% of Total Cases 0.49% 2.93% 8.05% 26.50% 21.52% 16.33% 11.61% 6.65% 3.36% 2.56%   23,718
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89449

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Win?

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/what-we-know-about-the-36-coronavirus-patients-in-texas/

Quote

Texas discloses 95,000 previously-unreported COVID-19 tests; positive rate drops 8% as a result

Quote

The state’s first case of COVID-19 was reported March 4 in Fort Bend County. As of August 13, Texas has officially reported 513,575 cases of COVID-19 in the state.

 

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Chewbacca

Chewbacca 7730

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29 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Is there any theories on why it drops? Just behavioral?  There is no indication that we will be doing anything other than a roller coaster of up and down indefinitely imo because we can’t keep R < 1 long enough to wipe it out. 

I think it's 100% behavioral.  People see numbers going down and they let down their guard.  Then it comes back and they get serious about it again.  

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89449

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1 hour ago, gmr548 said:
1 hour ago, Anastasis said:
That's a good trend.  Wish the drop was steeper. 

"Just wait for October" - aggy

Is that when aggy is rolling out their vaccine that the feds gave them $265 million for?

Pretty lucrative work for a bunch of folks who are expert in transmission of diseases between animals and humans.

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utee94

utee94 15746

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1 hour ago, strangulation! said:

spot on. i think this cycle will repeat until the vaccine outcome is certain

Since I don't believe we'll ever have an effective vaccine, I think this cycle will repeat until the virus burns itself out/we reach herd immunity.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89449

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Furk.  Aggy rollercoaster time.

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/austin-public-health-releases-guidelines-for-schools-as-mayor-extends-mask-order/

Quote

 On Friday, Mayor Steve Adler extended the mandatory mask order for the city through Dec. 15.

The order, set to go into effect Sunday, included new guidelines by Austin Public Health for schools.

This comes as Travis County also renewed its mask order the same day.

Quote

The city’s order also extends other COVID-19 rules already in place. It says social gatherings of any size should be avoided or kept to a minimum. Gatherings of more than 10 people are still prohibited.

Quote

The Austin order also says schools must follow a phased-in approach if they teach more than one grade, unless it jeopardizes their funding from the Texas Education Agency.

Austin Public Health released those guidelines for Austin and Travis County schools Friday.

Quote

Right now, we’re in Stage Four, so APH recommends no more than 25% capacity at schools. 

They also say schools should follow a phased-in reopening strategy and should stay at each stage for a minimum of two weeks before moving up to the next level.

 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89449

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1 hour ago, Message Board User said:

Blog post on the general fuckery that's going on with the Texas positivity rate (which remains relatively high despite hospitalizations falling).

 I think this is what KXAN and Texas Tribune was discussing - KXAN had Texas adding 95,000 tests, Texas Tribune had 95,000 tests for just hospitals, for a total of 124,000 previously unreported tests.

Long article, plenty of graphs:

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/08/14/texas-coronavirus-testing-dshs/

Quote

Earlier this week, Texas disclosed more than 124,000 previously unreported COVID-19 tests, at a time when the proportion of positive tests results was drawing attention.

Quote

After plummeting for days, the number of COVID-19 tests reported in Texas suddenly jumped by 124,693 on Thursday, which state health officials said was a result of coding errors and a system upgrade.

Backlogs at a hospital lab and a commercial lab accounted for most of the tests, which could not be added to the state’s official tally until the coding errors had been fixed, said Lara Anton, spokesperson for the Texas Department of State Health Services.

Quote

Of the 124,000 tests reported on Thursday, approximately 95,000 were from a lab that served several hospitals, Anton said, adding that the lab sent files containing an error in one of the data fields, which DSHS' electronic system could not read.

DSHS doesn’t know when the tests were actually conducted and is working with local health departments to find out, she said.

Quote

But DSHS' system wasn’t set up to handle the massive volume of test results it’s receiving during the pandemic, Anton said, adding that it would typically receive about 1,200 reports a day from labs across Texas before the pandemic.

The state’s maximum capacity for processing electronic lab reports was 48,000 a day, but at the height of the pandemic in July, it frequently received more than that, Anton said.

Quote

When DSHS upgraded its lab reporting system on Aug. 1, giving it the capacity to process more than 100,000 electronically-submitted test results per day, some of those backlogged tests also were counted for the first time, Anton said.

Quote

The sudden increase in the number of tests made Texas’ seven-day positivity rate drop from a record-high 24.5% to 16%. The positivity rate is the ratio of positive cases to the number of tests conducted, a metric that Gov. Greg Abbott has been watching closely. In May, Abbott said that if it went over 10%, it would be considered a red flag; the state has exceeded that mark every day since June 22.

I don't think it's necessarily nefarious or anything, although I'm sure the conspiracy theorists are flipping out, or at least they should be, but I think that they should have been forthcoming with the fact that they had a massive backlog.

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williemackgarza

williemackgarza 1826

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Is that when aggy is rolling out their vaccine that the feds gave them $265 million for?
Pretty lucrative work for a bunch of folks who are expert in transmission of diseases between animals and humans.

Point of order.
Aggy expertise is in human to animal transmission. Not animal to human as in chinese flu pandemic.
Sheep lives matter!!
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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19151

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11 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

They also say schools should follow a phased-in reopening strategy and should stay at each stage for a minimum of two weeks before moving up to the next level.

Will the phase in move from one level to the next after meeting clearly defined metrics?  Or will this be like reopening where the only criteria is waiting two weeks no matter how much the situation is falling off the rails at the end of the two weeks?

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89449

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3 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

COA still has to defer to TEA. Schools are in hard place as if a child doesn’t have WiFi or a safe space to learn they have to let then come to class. 
Just a cluster fuck

TEA has to defer to Abbott, who has been making it clear that schools will have a lot more of a choice about when to start back up, after the backlash he received.   He also just extended the state of emergency declaration or whatever.    And he and the TEA don't want to end up in court over this.

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drt

drt 637

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7 hours ago, scottsins said:


Define “effective vaccine” and why don’t you think we will have one for this virus?

Not UTee but I’ll give some of the points.
Other coronaviruses haven’t led themselves well to vaccines in the past, so it’s possible all of the ones in development flop. 


Due to the endemic and highly contagious nature of the virus, it’s possible vaccine rates would have to be almost 100% worldwide in less than a years timeframe. This is due to the likelihood of the protective window being 12-18 months. 

Could be that the virus does what viruses do and mutates. Usually to a more contagious and less lethal form. And then the vaccines don’t work. 
 

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bschoolprof

bschoolprof 6232

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On 8/14/2020 at 10:19 PM, Message Board User said:

Blog post on the general fuckery that's going on with the Texas positivity rate (which remains relatively high despite hospitalizations falling).

 

This is what I was referring to upthread.  I would heavily discount the positivity rate coming from the state dashboard.  They are not clearly not picking up all tests, and the positivity rates fluctuates wildly due to an inaccurate denominator.  

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bschoolprof

bschoolprof 6232

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On 8/14/2020 at 4:40 PM, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Is there any theories on why it drops? Just behavioral?  There is no indication that we will be doing anything other than a roller coaster of up and down indefinitely imo because we can’t keep R < 1 long enough to wipe it out. 

No one really knows for sure.  It's definitely partly behavioral.  But it could also partly be that far less than 60-80% of the population needs to be infected for herd immunity to be achieved.  How else can one explain Sweden?  No hard lockdown, almost no masks.  Crowds everywhere now, and they have almost no cases, after the virus swept through the country earlier in the year.  

 

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Surly Bevo

Surly Bevo 24696

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So let’s say there is no good vaccine solution by say March 2021. What then. At some point behind the scenes do we start prepping for full blown reopening and letting it roll (ie creating massive increase in ability to deal with sick and very sick while at the same time prepping the country for the idea that a terrible death toll will be part of the equation). I say all that under the thought that we have zero ability to maintain current state past that time frame (economically, psychologically, emotionally, personal responsibility etc etc etc). We can barely do it as a society now.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23394

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1 minute ago, Surly Bevo said:

So let’s say there is no good vaccine solution by say March 2021. What then. At some point behind the scenes do we start prepping for full blown reopening and letting it roll (ie creating massive increase in ability to deal with sick and very sick while at the same time prepping the country for the idea that a terrible death toll will be part of the equation). I say all that under the thought that we have zero ability to maintain current state past that time frame (economically, psychologically, emotionally, personal responsibility etc etc etc). We can barely do it as a society now.

We will have a vaccine by 1Q2021.  If not, we get on the sweden program.

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