COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[Brisketexan 106945]

6 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

We were staying at a big house with two other families. One member of the other families was exposed to somebody who now has a fever of unknown origin. We are in a window of uncertainty so we just cancelled. Got a 100% refund so they must have a waitlist a mile long.

 So the reasoning was not cases or trends or anything. I think you can definitely do the beach  safely by packing in most of what you need and avoiding the crowds. Our situation was very different. 

Cool, thanks for sharing.  Yeah, we're balancing the fact that yes, any movement increases risk, but goddamned, our mental health.....so, going a route that keeps risk low, but allows us to have a week off, and be together outside, is something we're really leaning towards doing.

[BrazilHorn 6852]

13 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

How do you see that data over time?  I can just see the current breakdown, not any trends looking at past numbers.

look at the chart and it shows by race since early march.

there are a couple of charts you can pick from.

[Brisketexan 106945]

11 minutes ago, XYZ said:

it’s the chart in the middle. Click on top right corner to enlarge

Very cool, thanks. 

And holy crap....what does that tell us?  The growing hospitalization isn't white college kids.  It isn't black protesters, or white liberal allies protesting with them.  The growth is entirely among the hispanic population.  And yeah, all of those demographics have had backyard barbecues and such, but hispanics stand out.

That population is heavily represented in the working class: construction, back of house in restaurants, stores, warehouses, etc.  I'm going to GUESS that there's transmission happening due to workplace proximity?  

[Anastasis 23723]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Cool, thanks for sharing.  Yeah, we're balancing the fact that yes, any movement increases risk, but goddamned, our mental health.....so, going a route that keeps risk low, but allows us to have a week off, and be together outside, is something we're really leaning towards doing.

Yeah. I get it. We made these reservations back in Jan. 

[Surly Bevo 25757]

Case Data in Tarrant County.  Hispanics leading the pack in cases by a fairly substantial margin.  Large number unreported but assuming that could be distributed across the existing distribution that group would be the one far outpacing their overall makeup of the county.

 

http://www.tarrantcounty.com/content/main/en/public-health/disease-control---prevention/coronaviruas.html

[babysdaddy 2731]

this is for dallas and has a heat map of where cases have been increasing.  Looks like the Black and hispanic community

https://covid-analytics-pccinnovation.hub.arcgis.com/

[BrazilHorn 6852]

13 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Very cool, thanks. 

And holy crap....what does that tell us?  The growing hospitalization isn't white college kids.  It isn't black protesters, or white liberal allies protesting with them.  The growth is entirely among the hispanic population.  And yeah, all of those demographics have had backyard barbecues and such, but hispanics stand out.

That population is heavily represented in the working class: construction, back of house in restaurants, stores, warehouses, etc.  I'm going to GUESS that there's transmission happening due to workplace proximity?  

yep. Will be interesting to see data from 6/16 to 6/23. This will be the hospitalizations from reopening, memorial day, protests etc. Curious to see if demographics change in next week or so.

[justhookit 4206]

That’s interesting. I’m trying to find the source data on this but I just read an article from a local tv station saying the highest new numbers are (in order) San Antonio, Brownsville, McAllen, Laredo, Corpus. https://www.kiiitv.com/article/news/local/nueces-county-leaders-tamucc-coronavirus-task-force-discuss-the-latest-surge-in-coronavirus-cases/503-7aaf068b-a8a9-411a-9e53-500d9198cdad

Also I’m trying to find Nueces county breakdown by race and not having luck.

 

Edited June 23, 2020 by justhookit
Added link

[Dahobbs 18333]

57 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

No idea about any of that. I just know from looking at Austin's cases since mid April that in terms of hospitalizations, people who identify as Hispanic are increasing while pretty much every other demographic has seen a decline. This data is through 6/16 so a lot can change in a week.

 

52 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Where do you see that data broken down?  That's interesting.

 

36 minutes ago, XYZ said:

it’s the chart in the middle. Click on top right corner to enlarge

That isn't what that chart is showing. It is documenting the relative percent of total hospitalizations by race/ethnicity. But it cannot tell us whether total hospitalizations among any one grouping is increasing or decreasing. For instance, hospitalizations among all groups could be increasing, but with Hispanic hospitalizations increasing a greater rate. Also, the data on the chart is fairly suspicious. Hispanics go from 0 percent to 50 percent in one data point (between March 9 and March 16). Other non-Hispanic goes from 50 percent to 0 percent over the same time. Something is clearly off about the data as it looks like one is just replacing the other. I assume it has something to do with a change in how the hospitalizations were categorized (e.g., originally the only categories were white non-Hispanic and other non-Hispanic, each accounting for 50% of the hospitalizations). 

Edited June 23, 2020 by Dahobbs

[XYZ 2154]

8 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

That isn't what that chart is showing. It is documenting the relative percent of hospitalizations by race/ethnicity. But it cannot tell us whether total hospitalizations among any one grouping is increasing or decreasing. For instance, hospitalizations among all groups could be increasing, but with Hispanic hospitalizations increasing a greater rate. Also, the data on the chart is fairly suspicious. Hispanics go from 0 percent to 50 percent in one data point (between March 9 and March 16). Other non-Hispanic goes from 50 percent to 0 percent over the same time. Something is clearly off about the data as it looks like one is just replacing the other. I assume it has something to do with a change in how the hospitalizations were categorized (e.g., originally the only categories were white non-Hispanic and other non-Hispanic, each accounting for 50% of the hospitalizations). 

Holy fuck, everything that you don’t like is “fairly suspicious”.

[BrazilHorn 6852]

9 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

 

 

That isn't what that chart is showing. It is documenting the relative percent of total hospitalizations by race/ethnicity. But it cannot tell us whether total hospitalizations among any one grouping is increasing or decreasing. For instance, hospitalizations among all groups could be increasing, but with Hispanic hospitalizations increasing a greater rate. Also, the data on the chart is fairly suspicious. Hispanics go from 0 percent to 50 percent in one data point (between March 9 and March 16). Other non-Hispanic goes from 50 percent to 0 percent over the same time. Something is clearly off about the data as it looks like one is just replacing the other. I assume it has something to do with a change in how the hospitalizations were categorized (e.g., originally the only categories were white non-Hispanic and other non-Hispanic, each accounting for 50% of the hospitalizations). 

True it is the % of population, bounce it off of the total hospitalized and you can get the relative numbers. I can do that later. I have all of the data, just need to add these % to it. Hispanics being 65% of hospitalizations however as of 6/16 is telling though in and of itself. That would be ~70 people hospitalized that were Hispanic on 6/16 vs ~13 Hispanics hospitalized on April 12th when the run up of % Hispanics started. Compare that to Whites on April 12 were ~13 and on 6/16 are ~24 hospitalized on 6/16.

So Since April 12th 2x increase in number hospitalized for Whites and ~6x increase in number hospitalized for Hispanics

[hayden_horn 11402]

38 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Very cool, thanks. 

And holy crap....what does that tell us?  The growing hospitalization isn't white college kids.  It isn't black protesters, or white liberal allies protesting with them.  The growth is entirely among the hispanic population.  And yeah, all of those demographics have had backyard barbecues and such, but hispanics stand out.

That population is heavily represented in the working class: construction, back of house in restaurants, stores, warehouses, etc.  I'm going to GUESS that there's transmission happening due to workplace proximity?  

yeah, and we've talked about this, but hispanics in that working class don't wear masks. there was a crew down the street repairing an irrigation system, and they were practically on top of each other with no mask, breathing heavily in the summer heat while working hard. there's also a corner store where a lot of hispanic construction guys shop at the front of the hood. seen multiple times, a full truckload of five dudes getting out of the truck, no mask, nothing. 

[CHIEF 5228]

Being in construction, I have a lot of Hispanic friends. Many of them went back to Mexico for the 3 day weekend at Memorial Day. In all of the pictures I've seen from Mexico, not one was masked up. I imagine it is next to impossible to get good PPE gear. 

CHIEF

[Dahobbs 18333]

25 minutes ago, XYZ said:

Holy fuck, everything that you don’t like is “fairly suspicious”.

Don't like? I don't care what the data shows. I just had to point out that strange bit in the data. You'd agree there has to be something else going on there, right? We don't really think that one week Hispanics made up 0% of hospitalizations and the next week 50%, do we? Surely that screams there is a problem with the data, at least for those initial entries? 

20 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

True it is the % of population, bounce it off of the total hospitalized and you can get the relative numbers. I can do that later. I have all of the data, just need to add these % to it. Hispanics being 65% of hospitalizations however as of 6/16 is telling though in and of itself. That would be ~70 people hospitalized that were Hispanic on 6/16 vs ~13 Hispanics hospitalized on April 12th when the run up of % Hispanics started. Compare that to Whites on April 12 were ~13 and on 6/16 are ~24 hospitalized on 6/16.

So Since April 12th 2x increase in number hospitalized for Whites and ~6x increase in number hospitalized for Hispanics

Yeah, using the information combined would give us a much better feel for what the data is really showing. It is interesting that Hispanics for the entire time period of this chart save the first data point are way over-represented in the hospitalizations. I assume, without knowing more, that this may be just an ongoing issue as opposed to one specific to Covid-19. The relative increase is certainly concerning, but I think it is important to put it in full perspective. Hispanics may just be more likely to go the hospital for injuries and illnesses (e.g., ER care). So, the relative change may be much more important (and less dramatic) than the absolute numbers show. 

Edited June 23, 2020 by Dahobbs

[Stella Link 535]

With shutdown success evaporated, model suggests mid-July peak for COVID-19 in Houston

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/With-shutdown-success-evaporated-model-suggests-15358664.php

 

 

[J.R. Juniors Junior Jr. 1113]

2 hours ago, BTW said:

95 new cases in Midland County yesterday up from a previous high of 35 new cases.  The graph looks similar to the Aggy football enthusiasm meter as they run through their non conference schedule each year:

 

 

 

It's like a reverse aggy rollercoaster

[Wulaw Horn 19597]

2 hours ago, BTW said:

95 new cases in Midland County yesterday up from a previous high of 35 new cases.  The graph looks similar to the Aggy football enthusiasm meter as they run through their non conference schedule each year:

 

 

Fortunately, it looks like most of the current cases are the relatively lower risk 'under 40' crowd:

What is the general consensus here regarding the idea that these younger (and in theory) healthier folks getting it is a good thing to start building the herd immunity?  The presupposition being that like the flu, most of us will get it eventually.

This has always been my contention as to how it should go. Have the kids under 20 lick a corona spoon. Have their parents 50 or under get it from them. Isolate the olds. Develop herd immunity. Profit. 

[Captain Ron 13133]

2 hours ago, Surly Bevo said:

Is Texas still reporting positives from both the nasal swab active infection test as well as the antibody test?  I may be mistaken but at some point I seem to be remember that being the case (and there being some ridicule for that). 

No, after being called out for it, they stopped doing it and corrected some back data too. That ended mid May.

[Pato del Muerto 53540]

So we have the mexican guys going back and forth, we have the Mexican Americans that I assume socially interact with the Mexicans that are going back and forth, and are going back and forth themselves. 
I assume there’s some overlap with illegals, and I assume the illegals wont seek medical help, possibly exacerbating the issue. So I can see how it goes up in that community. 
but how is it not being spread to other ethnicities?  It’s not like there’s no interaction with non-Hispanics. 

[Wulaw Horn 19597]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Very cool, thanks. 

And holy crap....what does that tell us?  The growing hospitalization isn't white college kids.  It isn't black protesters, or white liberal allies protesting with them.  The growth is entirely among the hispanic population.  And yeah, all of those demographics have had backyard barbecues and such, but hispanics stand out.

That population is heavily represented in the working class: construction, back of house in restaurants, stores, warehouses, etc.  I'm going to GUESS that there's transmission happening due to workplace proximity?  

How much is direct import from Mexico and/or Contact with someone from there?  Or even people from Mexico sick and showing up here for treatment?  I say that in no way judging as, it’s literally, exactly what I would do. 

[Dahobbs 18333]

1 hour ago, XYZ said:

Holy fuck, everything that you don’t like is “fairly suspicious”.

Here is another response: stop misinterpreting data and I'll stop correcting you. 

[Brisketexan 106945]

3 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

How much is direct import from Mexico and/or Contact with someone from there?  Or even people from Mexico sick and showing up here for treatment?  I say that in no way judging as, it’s literally, exactly what I would do. 

Yeah, solid questions.  No idea.  And it frustrates me that we apparently don't even bother to find out.

I wouldn't be surprised if some of it is due to cross border traffic, but hell if I know.

[Eastwood 4394]

Very cool, thanks. 
And holy crap....what does that tell us?  The growing hospitalization isn't white college kids.  It isn't black protesters, or white liberal allies protesting with them.  The growth is entirely among the hispanic population.  And yeah, all of those demographics have had backyard barbecues and such, but hispanics stand out.
That population is heavily represented in the working class: construction, back of house in restaurants, stores, warehouses, etc.  I'm going to GUESS that there's transmission happening due to workplace proximity?  

Dr. Fauci fielded a question on this area this morning. Essentially confirmed that the socioeconomic reality is that Hispanic and Black people are more likely to work a job that does not allow telecommuting or working from home, and are therefore more susceptible to exposure to the virus.

[Captain Ron 13133]

3 hours ago, LurkingHorn said:

 

5,489

[elfenix 34754]

44 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

This has always been my contention as to how it should go. Have the kids under 20 lick a corona spoon. Have their parents 50 or under get it from them. Isolate the olds. Develop herd immunity. Profit. 

 

[NAVY 6970]

There is no hiding from this, son. 

[Captain Ron 13133]

At the current rate of spread, Texas will likely pass Illinois by the end of the week.

[bschoolprof 6344]

The Texas med center (Houston area) has been posting lots of data on their hospitalizations, ICU occupancy, etc that we've all probably seen.  Here's a not great looking trend:

They also give you a snapshot in time at what total (covid and non-covid) ICU occupancy looks like:

 

However, one thing they don't indicate (or at least I couldn't find) was what total ICU occupancy has looked like over time.  So I went to the wayback machine and pulled snapshots  of the 2nd picture at 5/5, 5/13, 5/31, 6/7, and 6/19 (the only dates I could find).  Here's the total occupancy on those dates:

5/5: 1056

5/13: 1070

5/31: 1152

6/7: 1268

6/19: 1235

6/22: 1207

Interestingly, despite covid patients increasing from about 15% of ICU patients around 6/7 to about 25% now, the total number of people in the ICU has actually fallen by about 60 patients.   What does this all mean?  I have no idea.  An artifact of more testing/classification of sick people as covid cases? Or, we are pushing out non-covid pateints to accommodate more covid patients? Or, the Russians?  

[B00M 6735]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

This has always been my contention as to how it should go. Have the kids under 20 lick a corona spoon. Have their parents 50 or under get it from them. Isolate the olds. Develop herd immunity. Profit. 

So what if immunity only last for 3-6 months? Profit?

 

[Wulaw Horn 19597]

12 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

The Texas med center (Houston area) has been posting lots of data on their hospitalizations, ICU occupancy, etc that we've all probably seen.  Here's a not great looking trend:

They also give you a snapshot in time at what total (covid and non-covid) ICU occupancy looks like:

 

However, one thing they don't indicate (or at least I couldn't find) was what total ICU occupancy has looked like over time.  So I went to the wayback machine and pulled snapshots  of the 2nd picture at 5/5, 5/13, 5/31, 6/7, and 6/19 (the only dates I could find).  Here's the total occupancy on those dates:

5/5: 1056

5/13: 1070

5/31: 1152

6/7: 1268

6/19: 1235

6/22: 1207

Interestingly, despite covid patients increasing from about 15% of ICU patients around 6/7 to about 25% now, the total number of people in the ICU has actually fallen by about 60 patients.   What does this all mean?  I have no idea.  An artifact of more testing/classification of sick people as covid cases? Or, we are pushing out non-covid pateints to accommodate more covid patients? Or, the Russians?  

I think (hope?) otherwise sick people are checking in for other stuff and finding out they also have covid. 

[Wulaw Horn 19597]

5 minutes ago, B00M said:

So what if immunity only last for 3-6 months? Profit?

 

Not good bob, not good. If that’s the case this thing is gonna kill us all of its that contagious and gets a crack at us basically every 6 months to a year. 

[troph 25238]

I woke up this morning thinking life as we know it may change forever. This thread isn’t helping me thinking differently. Ugh.

[StruggleBus 3922]

15 minutes ago, troph said:

I woke up this morning thinking life as we know it may change forever. This thread isn’t helping me thinking differently. Ugh.

You could have been born a few thousand years ago and wiped your ass with a cactus after you shit. I say let’s still be grateful we’re alive now, covid pandemic or not.

[B00M 6735]

12 minutes ago, troph said:

I woke up this morning thinking life as we know it may change forever. This thread isn’t helping me thinking differently. Ugh.

This 30 minute interactive read that @elfenixshared probably won't make you feel better. But it does prepare your angus for what's probably on the horizon.

https://ncase.me/covid-19/

 

[JBJ 3828]

Here's what I'm looking at, fwiw.

It might just all be noise.  Like I said previously, ask me in a week or 2.  The data isn't exactly a nice pretty picture:

[troph 25238]

You could have been born a few thousand years ago and wiped your ass with a cactus after you shit. I say let’s still be grateful we’re alive now, covid pandemic or not.

Who said I’m not also thankful to be alive and healthy?

[Stella Link 535]

39 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

The Texas med center (Houston area) has been posting lots of data on their hospitalizations, ICU occupancy, etc that we've all probably seen.  Here's a not great looking trend:

They also give you a snapshot in time at what total (covid and non-covid) ICU occupancy looks like:

 

However, one thing they don't indicate (or at least I couldn't find) was what total ICU occupancy has looked like over time.  So I went to the wayback machine and pulled snapshots  of the 2nd picture at 5/5, 5/13, 5/31, 6/7, and 6/19 (the only dates I could find).  Here's the total occupancy on those dates:

5/5: 1056

5/13: 1070

5/31: 1152

6/7: 1268

6/19: 1235

6/22: 1207

Interestingly, despite covid patients increasing from about 15% of ICU patients around 6/7 to about 25% now, the total number of people in the ICU has actually fallen by about 60 patients.   What does this all mean?  I have no idea.  An artifact of more testing/classification of sick people as covid cases? Or, we are pushing out non-covid pateints to accommodate more covid patients? Or, the Russians?  

I read an article that suggested now, the virus is less-potent than it was earlier this spring, and could even disappear on its own.  Many of you may have read the same thing.  Not sure I'm in this camp yet.

https://en.as.com/en/2020/06/22/latest_news/1592820578_587344.html

 

 

 

 

 

[Anastasis 23723]

2 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Here's what I'm looking at, fwiw.

It might just all be noise.  Like I said previously, ask me in a week or 2.  The data isn't exactly a nice pretty picture:

[Anastasis 23723]

I don't want to jinx it, but Travis County cases came back into something that could be considered relatively controlled today. If we stick around here, 6/18-6/21 look like outlier readings. ATX made a big push to have protesters get tested whether or not they had symptoms.  That four day bump is right where you would expect it to be if it was related to either the protests directly, or an indirect result of the city making a push for testing. Might be able to tease out the secular trend of re-opening vs. an acute spike related to testing around protests just by eye balling it/ 

[BrazilHorn 6852]

Here is slice of the demographic chart with the total numbers hospitalized vs the percentages that TCAD shows.

Put it in a table so you can see the numbers easier. Will be curious to see what next week's data looks like. On TCAD chart all of the Races besides Hispanic are labeled "Non-Hispanic" afterwards (I shortened as just a pain to add for table)

 

	Asian	Black	White	Hispanic	Other
3/15/20	0	0	1	1	0
3/22/20	1	2	8	6	1
3/29/20	0	1	7	12	0
4/5/20	0	3	6	13	1
4/12/20	1	2	13	13	2
4/19/20	0	2	6	7	1
4/26/20	0	2	3	9	0
5/3/20	1	3	11	27	0
5/19/20	1	7	12	36	3
5/26/20	0	4	11	35	1
6/1/20	0	10	15	62	1
6/9/20	2	18	40	95	6
6/16/20	1	10	24	70	3

Edited June 23, 2020 by BrazilHorn

[Anastasis 23723]

56 new ATX MSA hospitalizations today.  FUCK EVERYTHING. 

[B00M 6735]

5 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

56 new ATX MSA hospitalizations today.  FUCK EVERYTHING. 

This supports what @trauma babe described, yeah? Or are these new admissions since she last described conditions?

 

[NotActuallyALonghorn 5004]

2 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

So we have the mexican guys going back and forth, we have the Mexican Americans that I assume socially interact with the Mexicans that are going back and forth, and are going back and forth themselves. 
I assume there’s some overlap with illegals, and I assume the illegals wont seek medical help, possibly exacerbating the issue. So I can see how it goes up in that community. 
but how is it not being spread to other ethnicities?  It’s not like there’s no interaction with non-Hispanics. 

How widely available is testing in Mexico? Could it be more widespread there than the official figures?

[Anastasis 23723]

2 minutes ago, B00M said:

This supports what @trauma babe described, yeah? Or are these new admissions since she last described conditions?

I fucking hope not. 

[troph 25238]

This supports what [mention=831]trauma babe[/mention] described, yeah? Or are these new admissions since she last described conditions?
 

What did she describe? I recall the expectation that hospitals and ICUs will be full soon. Anything else?

[elfenix 34754]

So what if immunity only last for 3-6 months? Profit?

 

You can run that scenario yourself:

 

https://ncase.me/covid-19/

 

 

Edit: I see you spotted it earlier

[atomheartbevo 90660]

2 hours ago, Stella Link said:

With shutdown success evaporated, model suggests mid-July peak for COVID-19 in Houston

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/With-shutdown-success-evaporated-model-suggests-15358664.php

Quote

A surge in COVID-19 cases since Memorial Day could set the Houston area on track for a peak of 2,000 daily hospitalizations by mid-July, according to a model from a Baylor College of Medicine epidemiologist.

The region’s intensive care units would be overwhelmed by that number of patients, a nearly 50 percent increase from current levels, though thousands of general hospital beds remain available, said Dr. Chris Amos.

City of Houston Health Authority Dr. David Persse said several area hospitals already are at or over capacity and warned that shifting patients to facilities in other cities, a common practice in natural disasters, may no longer be possible.

[atomheartbevo 90660]

51 minutes ago, troph said:

I woke up this morning thinking life as we know it may change forever. This thread isn’t helping me thinking differently. Ugh.

We are getting TV series based on The Wheel of Time and Asimov's Foundation, and G I Joe toys are about to hit the stores again pretty hard.  I expected none of these things to ever happen, so...I'm not sure where I'm going with this, but yeah, somehow covid is involved.

[Guest Lobo]

Wait, what?  We're getting G.I. Joe guys again?  I just got my old box of 'em out for my daughter because she wanted to play Star Wars and I don't have those guys anymore, just G.I. Joe but we're coming up with decent replacements.  For some reason, she has chosen Snake Eyes to play Bubba Fett. 

[B00M 6735]

25 minutes ago, troph said:

What did she describe? I recall the expectation that hospitals and ICUs will be full soon. Anything else?

What she described was full now, not soon.

 

Edited June 23, 2020 by B00M