COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[BrazilHorn 6576]

Travis County CV19 Hospitalizations down to lowest number since 6/22. Sitting at 230 right now.

CV19 ICU numbers down to lowest level since 6/21 at 79 currently

Good to see this heading to lower thresholds.

[GreenspointTexas 9567]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/19/us/sturgis-south-dakota-rally-coronavirus-trnd/index.html

[Armybrat 40744]

5 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/19/us/sturgis-south-dakota-rally-coronavirus-trnd/index.html

Well, Darwin applauds the Boomer Remover disease.

[Texas Jeff 1932]

On 8/17/2020 at 6:59 PM, smoky said:

What metric is the city of Austin/ Travis county using to determine the stage that we're in?

7 day moving average of hospital admissions.  Check out their dashboard here:

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0ad7fa50ba504e73be9945ec2a7841cb

[BrazilHorn 6576]

3 hours ago, Armybrat said:

Well, Darwin applauds the Boomer Remover disease.

This. Any dipshit who attended Sturgis this year gets ZERO pity from me if they get CV19. I only feel bad for any of the people that unwittingly infect on the way home at gas stations, restaurants, hotels etc

Just nuts this event was allowed to happen

[Message Board User 12389]

 

[Message Board User 12389]

4 hours ago, GreenspointTexas said:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/19/us/sturgis-south-dakota-rally-coronavirus-trnd/index.html

But if it was a protest it'd be OK.

[gmr548 16514]

But if it was a protest it'd be OK.

One could consider a bunch of olds traveling hundreds or thousands of miles to congregate in bars in the current circumstances a protest against intelligence, so I think that makes them good.

[Anastasis 23394]

ATX hospitalization data looks to be legging down, but the COVID cases are back to 300 or so per day last few days.  I was hoping that we would stick in the 100-200 range. 

[Guest Lobo]

What's our positivity rate course-corrected to?  I think much of the backlog has been taken care of, so we're getting back to pure community infection numbers but they were still north of 20%, which ain't no good.  

[Js1 85110]

1 hour ago, Message Board User said:

But if it was a protest it'd be OK.

Mister “public discourse is just people yelling past in each other and no one engaging in meaningful discussion” with the drive by right wing talking point 

[GRHorn 105]

San Antonio now well under 600 hospitalized patients. Down from a peak of about 1400. 

[dcbc 14409]

On 8/12/2020 at 9:36 PM, atomheartbevo said:

Crossposting, but this should help them understand it.  That high school in Georgia, where this photo was taken last week.

They decided to go online for a couple of days this week, because they were waiting on test results and contact tracing.  Well, things went south for that district and school.

https://www.ajc.com/education/update-826-students-under-quarantine-in-cherokee-after-covid-19-exposures/5HAASRHSRFBMHIQSUT5ABNEZIY/ 

And this is that high school in the photo above:

826 students, 42 teachers, and counting, are going to be riding out 2-week quarantines at home.

Just got the email from the high school that they already have had a positive case (Day 1).  They caught it with a temperature check before he got into the building.  No students exposed (according to them), but several staff members exposed.  High schooler said, "At least they caught it before he came in."  I responded, "Yeah, but think about how many asymptomatic and presymptomatic kids got in." 

Also, remote learning was pretty much an unorganized shitshow.  We will survive, and it will get better.  But in any event, it beats the alternative for now.

Edited August 19, 2020 by dcbc

[ChickenSandwich 9798]

56 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Mister “public discourse is just people yelling past in each other and no one engaging in meaningful discussion” with the drive by right wing talking point 

Reality is not “right wing”. He was simply addressing the hypocrisy. One large group gathering is acceptable to you while the other is not. The only difference between the two is the reason for gathering. 

[GRHorn 105]

52 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Reality is not “right wing”. He was simply addressing the hypocrisy. One large group gathering is acceptable to you while the other is not. The only difference between the two is the reason for gathering. 

But sir, you forget. With the protests and rioting regular people stayed home more than usual so it actually HELPED Covid spread. I mean they broke and destroyed things, but they were helpful overall. 

[BradInATX 9208]

1 hour ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Reality is not “right wing”. He was simply addressing the hypocrisy. One large group gathering is acceptable to you while the other is not. The only difference between the two is the reason for gathering. 

Well, except that large portions, probably a majority of people at the Floyd protests were wearing masks, and literally zero percent mask usage at Sturgis.

So let's just ignore that one tiny difference and you've got a great point and are not at all a partisan hack.

 

Edited August 20, 2020 by BradInATX

[dcar00 14035]

3 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

This. Any dipshit who attended Sturgis this year gets ZERO pity from me if they get CV19. I only feel bad for any of the people that unwittingly infect on the way home at gas stations, restaurants, hotels etc

Just nuts this event was allowed to happen

for some reason I don't think the sturgis attendees will worry too much about your pity...

[dcar00 14035]

1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

Well, except that large portions, probably a majority of people at the Floyd protests were wearing masks, and literally zero percent mask usage at Sturgis.

So let's just ignore that one tiny difference and you've got a great point and are not at all an idiot or a partisan hick.

 

you really have no idea what portions of people at the floyd protest/riots were wearing masks...no one does.

[BradInATX 9208]

5 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

you really have no idea what portions of people at the floyd protest/riots were wearing masks...no one does.

Yes. If only there were some way that someone could capture a visual representation of a moment in time and share it across the world so that we could look at the crowds and ascertain a general sense of mask usage. I guess we'll never know. Maybe we can dispatch the Pony Express to Minneapolis to ask bystanders if people were wearing masks or not, since we have no way to re-capture or look at visuals from those moments.

Edited August 20, 2020 by BradInATX

[hornmpa96 2598]

Also I wasn’t aware of the protesters gathering in bars after the protests or going to concerts. I guess I missed that.

[dcar00 14035]

3 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

Also I wasn’t aware of the protesters gathering in bars after the protests or going to concerts. I guess I missed that.

they went to macy's and 5th ave for some giveaways.

[BrazilHorn 6576]

33 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

for some reason I don't think the sturgis attendees will worry too much about your pity...

You say that but I’m waiting for the inevitable “Gofundme” pages that sprout as these folks ask for money stemming from the effects of exercising “their freedom”

 

[Hate 20103]

If you are into Harley’s there may be a buyer’s market in a few weeks.

[dcar00 14035]

52 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

You say that but I’m waiting for the inevitable “Gofundme” pages that sprout as these folks ask for money stemming from the effects of exercising “their freedom”

 

they should just do that regardless if they get it or not.  PT Barnum and all that.

[ChickenSandwich 9798]

11 hours ago, hornmpa96 said:

Also I wasn’t aware of the protesters gathering in bars after the protests or going to concerts. I guess I missed that.

Actually many on here surmised the protesters did just that as it was a holiday weekend and the bars and restaurants were just opened. 

[BrazilHorn 6576]

2nd straight day over 300 (306). Austin had been showing a nice trend in the 200-300 range with dips into the mid 100s but the past two days aren't great. A week ago was 172 cases so this is a pretty good WoW jump as well. Big spike in the 20-29 grouping with it being ~8pts higher than the normal share of cases they represent.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 8/19 vs 8/18	0	9	28	105	60	31	32	24	13	4	306
% of Daily Change	0.00%	2.94%	9.15%	34.31%	19.61%	10.13%	10.46%	7.84%	4.25%	1.31%
% of Total Cases	0.48%	2.97%	8.08%	26.66%	21.59%	16.24%	11.54%	6.65%	3.30%	2.48%	25,062

[ChickenSandwich 9798]

Some good news, Austin Hospitalizations keep falling

 

 

Edited August 20, 2020 by ChickenSandwich

[dcar00 14035]

43 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

2nd straight day over 300 (306). Austin had been showing a nice trend in the 200-300 range with dips into the mid 100s but the past two days aren't great. A week ago was 172 cases so this is a pretty good WoW jump as well. Big spike in the 20-29 grouping with it being ~8pts higher than the normal share of cases they represent.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 8/19 vs 8/18	0	9	28	105	60	31	32	24	13	4	306
% of Daily Change	0.00%	2.94%	9.15%	34.31%	19.61%	10.13%	10.46%	7.84%	4.25%	1.31%
% of Total Cases	0.48%	2.97%	8.08%	26.66%	21.59%	16.24%	11.54%	6.65%	3.30%	2.48%	25,062

I know multiple families who had to have their college aged kids get tested before heading out.  none had it but that may be some of the spike on the 10-19/20-29. 

[dcar00 14035]

31 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Some good news, Austin Hospitalizations keep falling

 

 

good news.  this is really the only key trackable metric.

[Brisketexan 104626]

27 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

I know multiple families who had to have their college aged kids get tested before heading out.  none had it but that may be some of the spike on the 10-19/20-29. 

I suspect a lot of families of younger school-age kids have done the same.  But that's nothing more than my educated guess.  Wouldn't be surprised, though.  That said, that age range isn't a large number of cases.

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

Well now I know a family that sent their son back to aggy and he got Covid within 48 hours. Will be interesting to see just how lit the station gets next month. 

[South Austin 52144]

11 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Well now I know a family that sent their son back to aggy and he got Covid within 48 hours. Will be interesting to see just how lit the station gets next month. 

He didn't get COVID.  He just ran out of immunity.

[Guest Lobo]

Hi—Oh, Dr. Tucker!!!!!!!

[Deej 76568]

15 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Well now I know a family that sent their son back to aggy and he got Covid within 48 hours. Will be interesting to see just how lit the station gets next month. 

48 hours? May have had it before he even left. 

[Bevo 13527]

7 minutes ago, South Austin said:

He didn't get COVID.  He just ran out of immunity.

Are they sure it is COVID? Everything in Colleyville makes me sick.

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

Does anyone know when the majority of schools having in-person classes will start/have started?  I’d like to set my surge timer and see how it plays out.  

[Message Board User 12389]

 

[Message Board User 12389]

5 hours ago, Liquor and Poker said:

Does anyone know when the majority of schools having in-person classes will start/have started?  I’d like to set my surge timer and see how it plays out.  

No need to wait - just look at Europe where schools re-opened a month or so and results are somewhat mixed. 

There have been outbreaks (which are inevitable), but the consensus seems to be it's manageable. 

Now, this data (or is it these data?) assumes that local infection rates are low (and this article is from early July), so it's a bit of an apples and oranges comparison to communities with a high rate of community spread. 

Still, this gives a glimpse.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/school-openings-across-globe-suggest-ways-keep-coronavirus-bay-despite-outbreaks#

Do schools spread the virus to the wider community?

Because children so rarely develop severe symptoms, experts have cautioned that open schools might pose a much greater risk to teachers, family members, and the wider community than to students themselves. Many teachers and other school staff are understandably nervous about returning to the classroom. In surveys of U.S. school districts, as many as one-third of staff say they prefer to stay away. Science could find few reports of deaths or serious illnesses from COVID-19 among school staff, but information is sparse. Several teachers have died of COVID-19 complications in Sweden, where schools did not modify class sizes or make other substantive adjustments.

Early data from European countries suggest the risk to the wider community is small. At least when local infection rates are low, opening schools with some precautions does not seem to cause a significant jump in infections elsewhere.

It’s hard to be sure, because in most places, schools reopened in concert with other aspects of public life. But in Denmark, nationwide case numbers continued to decline after day care centers and elementary schools opened on 15 April, and middle and high schools followed in May. In the Netherlands, new cases stayed flat and then dropped after elementary schools opened part-time on 11 May and high schools opened on 2 June. In Finland, Belgium, and Austria, too, officials say they found no evidence of increased spread of the novel coronavirus after schools reopened.

In a broader study of COVID-19 clusters worldwide, epidemiologist Gwen Knight at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and her colleagues collected data before most school closings took effect. If schools were a major driver of viral spread, she says, “We would have expected to find more clusters linked to schools. That’s not what we found.” Still, she adds, without widespread testing of young people, who often don’t have symptoms, it’s hard to know for sure what role schools might play.

At the same time, open schools can change the overall balance of who becomes infected by adding cases among children. In Germany, the proportion of all new infections that were in children under age 19 ticked upward from about 10% in early May, when schools reopened, to nearly 20% in late June. But wider testing and a decline in cases among the elderly could also explain the increase. In Israel, infections among children increased steadily after schools opened. That paralleled a rise in cases nationwide, but it’s not clear whether the country’s rising caseload contributed to the increase within schools or vice versa.

“We try to focus the epidemiologic research and find the source but it’s hard,” Aflalo says. “We cannot say right now this is because of this or that.”

[Anastasis 23394]

ATX cases still in that upper 200 range, new hospitalizations holding at lower new normal. Age distribution of cases basically unchanged since both early and late July. 

 

Edited August 21, 2020 by Anastasis

[Message Board User 12389]

Trends in hospitalizations for each metro area:

[gmr548 16514]

He didn't get COVID.  He just ran out of immunity.

[BrazilHorn 6576]

Travis County yesterday saw 291 cases (last week same day was 297) but still coming off prior two days north of 300. While Travis has been living in the 200-300 range by and large, I am not loving sitting at high end of range. No big changes in the distribution (exception being <1 yo, but case count there very small)

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 8/20 vs 8/19	2	9	21	76	59	54	40	15	9	6	291
% of Daily Change	0.69%	3.09%	7.22%	26.12%	20.27%	18.56%	13.75%	5.15%	3.09%	2.06%
% of Total Cases	0.48%	2.97%	8.07%	26.66%	21.57%	16.27%	11.57%	6.63%	3.30%	2.48%	25,353

[Skipper 6103]

I don't really understand DISD strategy as it relates to in-person school.  It was originally pushed back until 9/8.  Now pushed back until 10/6.   Based on current data in Dallas it appears the spread is as low as it has been since late May/early June when shit started cranking up post MDW.   Assuming this trend continues the next 2 weeks (and no reason to think it won't), then community spread will be about as low as it's going to get by early September.  So what do they think is going to happen between September and October?  By October you are getting closer to Flu season which is the double whammy that has the potential to really fuck everything up.   I'm not saying it's a great idea for all of DISD to go in person in September, but I can't see any way things materially improve between September and October.  Are they just going to shut down for all of 2020 but don't want the backlash of announcing that now?  That's the only thing that makes sense to me.

[mdmost 42865]

Yeah, DISD is probably going all virtual till January. I'd imagine they feel there might be a post-Labor Day infection bump just like there was back after Memorial Day. So push till October and see what the stats look like then. I'd imagine we'll get some in-person around mid to late October for those who are hard luck cases. I doubt many DISD teachers are clamouring to get back into the classroom any time soon. 

Edited August 21, 2020 by mdmost

[Skipper 6103]

4 minutes ago, mdmost said:

I doubt many DISD teachers are clamouring to get back into the classroom any time soon. 

I think that is the big issue from the little I have read about it.  So I predict regardless of what the stats look like in October they will push it out.  It just sucks regardless.  I don't know that there is a right answer.  But for a lot of DISD kids in particular, many are going to be so far behind.  Hopefully this drive to get many kids laptops has worked as I saw multiple stories of kids trying to do "school" last spring passing around their parents smart phone from kid to kid.  Just beyond sad.   Not to mention no idea what parents with jobs they can't do remotely are planning.   The macro effects of this virus are going to be felt for a long time.  It's not just the wealth gap growing (as many professionals working from home are actually coming out of this net positive given reduced spending while 30% of americans can't pay rent/mortgage) but the kids of those professionals are much more likely to continue to stay on pace school wise.   If you consider the realistic scenario of a safe return for school after spring break '21, that's an entire year many kids are missing.  Sucks.

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

22 hours ago, South Austin said:

He didn't get COVID.  He just ran out of immunity.

This should win you Mod Status for the rest of the year.

[mdmost 42865]

DISD has a big push right now giving out hardware and hotspots through the end of the month. iPads for the lower elementary kids and Chromebooks for 4th and up. Some will fall through the cracks but DISD is trying to get everyone what they need and has spent multiple millions getting ready for this. Our school's FB group did a poll and the virtual to face-to-face selections were 85-15 in favor on virtual. 

[kevwun 15653]

Opening things up when we leveled off last time is what led to the huge spike.  Schools know it's very likely the same thing will happen again when they open in mass.  Some districts are avoiding the outrage by pushing their opening back until the spikes in other districts give them cover to go virtual until January.

Edited August 21, 2020 by kevwun

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

4 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Some districts are avoiding the outrage by pushing their opening back until the spikes in other districts give them cover to go virtual until January.

Ah yes. The King's Gambit. Sacrifice those pawns!

[kevwun 15653]

I can't really blame them at this point.  I wouldn't want to get screamed at by crazy parents all day because I was doing the right thing.  DISD going about it this way keeps their teachers and kids safe while minimizing the pushback from asshole parents.