COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[Surly Bevo 25655]

I'm going to be interested in what the metric is for "all-clear". As much as we have a shitshow of a metric/common understanding of what should drive activities and reductions (certain closures, masks, virtual school, etc) the lack of clarity there means going to be just as much an issue on getting agreement on the "all is well" front.  What a mess.

[heinhorn 16]

I have two nephews at aggy.  Both have Covid now.  Virtually everyone they know has symptoms.  They had rush week last week and there was no social distancing, no masks worn.  1000's of dumb kids partying and going from house to house to house.  They are going to fuck up college football for all of us.  

[Surly Bevo 25655]

You should disown them....probably already should have done that.

[bschoolprof 6335]

All clear is when we have a vaccine, everyone takes it, and there is no panicking on twitter. 

[kevwun 16269]

I would clarify that when everyone who wants it has it.  There will be some push back on the vaccine.

[ChickenSandwich 9918]

1 hour ago, heinhorn said:

I have two nephews at aggy.  Both have Covid now.  Virtually everyone they know has symptoms.  They had rush week last week and there was no social distancing, no masks worn.  1000's of dumb kids partying and going from house to house to house.  They are going to fuck up college football for all of us.  

West Campus was in full swing last week.  Huge sorority parties with food trucks, pool parties etc.  Not a mask in sight.

 

[ABSR 5357]

On 8/19/2020 at 3:50 PM, Texas Jeff said:

7 day moving average of hospital admissions.  Check out their dashboard here:

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0ad7fa50ba504e73be9945ec2a7841cb

Is there somewhere on that site (or elsewhere) that compares that to the hospital and ICU capacity?  I would hope so, as without context we can't tell if this is significant (good or bad).

Edited August 21, 2020 by ABSR

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

1 hour ago, bschoolprof said:

there is no panicking on twitter. 

So...when the world ends?

[smoky 842]

7 day moving average of hospital admissions.  Check out their dashboard here:
https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0ad7fa50ba504e73be9945ec2a7841cb

According to the graph, we should be in stage 3.

I get that we have to be under a threshold for a good period of time. But we've been under 40 new admissions since the start of August and trending downward.

Or am I missing how to interpret that graph?

[smoky 842]

Is there somewhere on that site (or elsewhere) that compares that to the hospital and ICU capacity?  I would hope so, as without context we can't tell if this is significant (good or bad).

Texas Tribune has that for the state.

 

https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronavirus-cases-map/?_ga=2.228915034.775902359.1598031928-1390640648.1598031928

 

[justhookit 4205]

On 8/20/2020 at 12:14 PM, Liquor and Poker said:

Does anyone know when the majority of schools having in-person classes will start/have started?  I’d like to set my surge timer and see how it plays out.  

No need for that. When the number of posts per day on this this thread drops to about 3, look for the surge 2-3 weeks after that. Or about 3 weeks after Labor Day.

locally mask usage was really good lately, but I’m already seeing signs of people getting bored with it.

[Texas Jeff 1998]

1 hour ago, ABSR said:

Is there somewhere on that site (or elsewhere) that compares that to the hospital and ICU capacity?  I would hope so, as without context we can't tell if this is significant (good or bad).

Head on over to their other dashboard:

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984

In the panel "Weekly Hospitalizations by Race & Ethnicity - MSA", click on the tab "MSA ICU and Vent 7d Mov. Avg."

Edited August 21, 2020 by Texas Jeff

[Bevo 13825]

2 hours ago, ChickenSandwich said:

West Campus was in full swing last week.  Huge sorority parties with food trucks, pool parties etc.  Not a mask in sight.

 

Pics or I don't believe you.

[dcar00 14902]

3 hours ago, ChickenSandwich said:

West Campus was in full swing last week.  Huge sorority parties with food trucks, pool parties etc.  Not a mask in sight.

 

no pics?  this site has rules ya know...

[Message Board User 12405]

 

[Hefeweizen 5416]

On 8/20/2020 at 11:54 AM, South Austin said:

He didn't get COVID.  He just ran out of immunity.

Holy shit.  This may be top 10 Surly worthy material.

[WBT 20884]

8 hours ago, ChickenSandwich said:

West Campus was in full swing last week.  Huge sorority parties with food trucks, pool parties etc.  Not a mask in sight.

 

I was told parties were outlawed this year

[Deej 77671]

9 hours ago, heinhorn said:

I have two nephews at aggy.  Both have Covid now.  Virtually everyone they know has symptoms.  They had rush week last week and there was no social distancing, no masks worn.  1000's of dumb kids partying and going from house to house to house.  They are going to fuck up college football for all of us.  

2020 COVID Champs. Put it on the wall.

[Message Board User 12405]

 

[Walte464 450]

On 8/20/2020 at 5:29 PM, Message Board User said:

 

I know this may different aspect for the valley, but are the discharged patients from icu going to the McAllen convention center or other off premise centers considered being released from the hospital?

[BrazilHorn 6792]

Travis County finally at the low end of their "new normal" 200-300 cases/day range with 206 yesterday.

Fairly normal distribution with exception being 40-49 bracket. Although these were offset by reductions vs norm in the 60+ brackets so I will take that trade

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 8/21 vs 8/20	2	5	16	56	42	49	18	8	7	3	206
% of Daily Change	0.97%	2.43%	7.77%	27.18%	20.39%	23.79%	8.74%	3.88%	3.40%	1.46%
% of Total Cases	0.49%	2.97%	8.07%	26.66%	21.56%	16.33%	11.55%	6.61%	3.30%	2.47%	25,559

[Message Board User 12405]

 

[Pato del Muerto 53332]

I’ll be interested in any lessons learned once this thing is over one way or another, but for this particular bug I’m tempted to say that the thing to do would be have all the 25 and under get it ASAP while isolating from others. You take the occasional unlucky death and a month later 1/3 of the country has immunity.  Can’t imagine such a plan being feasible though, even if it was the correct course of action. 

[South Austin 53154]

9 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I’ll be interested in any lessons learned once this thing is over one way or another, but for this particular bug I’m tempted to say that the thing to do would be have all the 25 and under get it ASAP while isolating from others. You take the occasional unlucky death and a month later 1/3 of the country has immunity.  Can’t imagine such a plan being feasible though, even if it was the correct course of action. 

I have a modest proposal . . . .

[Brisketexan 106625]

6 minutes ago, South Austin said:

I have a modest proposal . . . .

I have an immodest proposal.  It's just like yours, but we all do it with our junk hanging out.

I mean, unless that was your proposal.  I don't wanna steal your idea.

[Message Board User 12405]

1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I’ll be interested in any lessons learned once this thing is over one way or another, but for this particular bug I’m tempted to say that the thing to do would be have all the 25 and under get it ASAP while isolating from others. You take the occasional unlucky death and a month later 1/3 of the country has immunity.  Can’t imagine such a plan being feasible though, even if it was the correct course of action. 

Sweden basically said "fuck it" and there's some evidence that their way worked.

 

[Skipper 6406]

Latest Dallas data shows that week ending 8/8 hospitalizations are back down to what they were on 5/30. So we've basically fallen all the way back to what it was when this summer ramp up started.   Pretty impressive.  I wasn't sure we would see it this low again absent a vaccine.

[Message Board User 12405]

 

[mchookem 16729]

all good news! 🙂

[atomheartbevo 90548]

21 minutes ago, mchookem said:

all good news! 🙂

This means we can take off our masks and open up the bars to full capacity again?

[mchookem 16729]

🙄

i would suggest we are seeing the results of those actions in the numbers. which is positive.

[Deej 77671]

21 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

This means we can take off our masks and open up the bars to full capacity again?

Of course. Let's fuck this up again. 

[Bevo 13825]

For justhookit:

Travelers from New York, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Vermont, Maine, or Connecticut who present a negative coronavirus test will be able to fly to Costa Rica starting next month.

[Message Board User 12405]

 

[B00M 6725]

As has been noticed in NY, etc., the hospitalizations curve accelerates much more quickly than it decelerates. Thanks @Message Board User for bringing useful content on the reg

[Message Board User 12405]

20 minutes ago, B00M said:

As has been noticed in NY, etc., the hospitalizations curve accelerates much more quickly than it decelerates. Thanks @Message Board User for bringing useful content on the reg

No problem.  

I've had to seek this information out on my own because the media (sadly but expectedly) isn't mentioning one word about this. 

I watched the national news tonight - nothing about the nationwide decrease in hospitalizations. 

Then I watched the local DFW news - nothing about the consistent decrease in hospitalizations here either (over 50% in 1 month!).

[Anastasis 23699]

ATX < 100 new cases and <20 new admissions. I'll fucking take it no matter what day of the week it is. 

[justhookit 4205]

6 hours ago, Bevo said:

For justhookit:

Travelers from New York, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Vermont, Maine, or Connecticut who present a negative coronavirus test will be able to fly to Costa Rica starting next month.

I’m pretty sure it’s just a ploy to infect Yankees again. But in the meantime can I borrow someones mailing address?

[BrazilHorn 6792]

Ok - Deaths slowing down for Travis County last week with 22 (vs 38 the week prior & ~32 rolling 7 week avg (how long I have been tracking age group deaths)

All deaths last week were from people 40 years old and up. 77% of deaths were from 60+

[BrazilHorn 6792]

Travis County CV19 Mortality Rates: Based on deaths by age group vs cases per age group through 8/22

<1 - (0%)

1 to 9 (0%)

10 to 19 (0.05%)

20 to 29 (0.03%)

30 to 39 (0.11%)

40 to 49 (0.33%)

50 to 59 (1.45%)

60 to 69 (4.61%)

70 to 79 (9.92%)

80 to 89 (20.63%)

81.56% of all CV19 deaths in Travis County through 8/22 have come from the age groups 60+

 

[dcar00 14902]

49 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Travis County CV19 Mortality Rates: Based on deaths by age group vs cases per age group through 8/22

<1 - (0%)

1 to 9 (0%)

10 to 19 (0.05%)

20 to 29 (0.03%)

30 to 39 (0.11%)

40 to 49 (0.33%)

50 to 59 (1.45%)

60 to 69 (4.61%)

70 to 79 (9.92%)

80 to 89 (20.63%)

81.56% of all CV19 deaths in Travis County through 8/22 have come from the age groups 60+

 

I believe that 82% number is exactly the same as CDC number for over 60.

[BrazilHorn 6792]

21 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

I believe that 82% number is exactly the same as CDC number for over 60.

Yep. This disease absolutely kills the elderly. I think I saw at some point that between 40-55% or so of ALL CV19 deaths had occurred in nursing homes/long term care/rehab facilities. Just crazy how it ran through those locations and absolutely killed senior citizens.

[Message Board User 12405]

 

[Anastasis 23699]

Another good sub 100/20 day in ATX. 

[BradInATX 9208]

Yep. Austin has been on a great trajectory. Trending pretty rapidly back towards phase 1.

I can't find any good trend data for Comal County, which as a data guy is giving me the DTs.

[Anastasis 23699]

2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Yep. Austin has been on a great trajectory. Trending pretty rapidly back towards phase 1.

I can't find any good trend data for Comal County, which as a data guy is giving me the DTs.

Keep it under 150/20 through Wednesday and I might start masturbating furiously.  

[BradInATX 9208]

1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

Keep it under 150/20 through Wednesday and I might start masturbating furiously.  

Just make sure you're not within 6 feet of anyone when you do

[Anastasis 23699]

Just now, BradInATX said:

Just make sure you're not within 6 feet of anyone when you do

I wish I had that kind of range at this point in my life. 

[South Austin 53154]

13 hours ago, Anastasis said:

I wish I had that kind of range at this point in my life. 

Yeah. I’m more a dribbler than a shooter these days.

[BrazilHorn 6792]

Two days in a row <100 cases for Travis County (to be fair they were weekend days but still) with yesterday's tally being 96. Travis Co hasn't had two days in a row <100 cases in a couple of months so I will still take it as movement in the right direction. While cases yesterday were low, there was a concentration in the 10-19 & 30-39 age brackets. (In terms of their normal share of cases)

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 8/23 vs 8/22	0	4	18	21	30	10	7	5	1	0	96
% of Daily Change	0.00%	4.17%	18.75%	21.88%	31.25%	10.42%	7.29%	5.21%	1.04%	0.00%
% of Total Cases	0.48%	2.98%	8.09%	26.67%	21.60%	16.31%	11.53%	6.59%	3.29%	2.45%	25,736