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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

justhookit

By justhookit
in Daily Texan

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whithou
whithou

It has been a disheartening journey and it is only starting. I did not realize how there really is no definitive treatment for the illness until we got COVID patients. When they first come on our unit

South Austin
South Austin

He didn't get COVID.  He just ran out of immunity.

safe sex
safe sex

I cannot stress this enough for anyone who lives in Austin (although this really applies to pretty much everywhere at this point) BE SAFE. What this means is don't get on your motorcycles. D

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6576

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

Maybe overlay positivity rate?

If I could find where that has been tracked daily I could. My challenge is I really think PR is a poor metric as from a public health standpoint it is easily manipulated. There have been times where people were told only go get tested if you have symptoms, so lo and behold PR rate skyrockets. Then it was messaged all should be tested, lo and behold PR rate plummets, now CDC is saying only some groups should get tested etc etc

I could see some normalized metric of positive results per 1000 people or something along that lines in order to take out the noise in the data. Need to look and see if I can dig that info out somewhere.

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kevwun

kevwun 15652

Posted
Posted (edited)

Cases are starting to creep back up in my County because of school openings.  A lady in our office just had to go pick her daughter because she was exposed at school.  I'm guessing the schools here will all be back to remote learning in 2-3 weeks.

Edited by kevwun
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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6576

Posted
Posted

7 straight days <200 cases for Travis County, with three of them being <100. This is a great trend. If this runs for one more week, I will call the "new normal" for Travis the 100-200 range vs the 200-300 range it had been living in (since the crazy later June through July peak). Yesterday only had 68 cases. I think it has been since June 16th that there were 7 straight days <200 so this trend is really positive. No real "A-has" in the daily distribution. I cannot speak for any other city/county in Texas but if Travis really has responded well since the "Bars are open - fucking A" days of craziness. Seeing videos of UT off campus parties where no one had masks so we will see what happens from that in the next week or two.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 8/28 vs 8/27 1 2 3 11 14 12 13 11 0 1 68
% of Daily Change 1.47% 2.94% 4.41% 16.18% 20.59% 17.65% 19.12% 16.18% 0.00% 1.47%  
% of Total Cases 0.49% 2.95% 8.08% 26.75% 21.52% 16.39% 11.52% 6.60% 3.27% 2.44%   26,307
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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted

Good news is you'll only to wait about three weeks.  It's coming.  We'll have a bit of reprieve again in October.  Then the shit hits the fan in November and America goes into her 90-day dark period from which I can only hope we emerge.  

Good news though is instead of stocking up on ammo, canned food, and sanitizer...I went out and hired somebody new for our company yesterday, brand spanking new job that didn't exist until we created it specifically for this guy.  Also had my first mentor/mentee sessions with several UT students this week.  So while I expect the worst from 2020, I'm doing what I can to lift up the future of Texas.  It ain't much, and I'd probably get out and protest on one side or the other...but it's so fucking hot. 

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Telegraph_it

Telegraph_it 3354

Posted
Posted

I traveled to Nashville for work on Thursday and came back on Friday. 
 

Inside Nashville city limits all liquor and beer sales are stopped at 10:30 PM. This was done to stop the bars which they could not close apparently. 
 

This means you could not even buy a beer in the hotel and take it to you room after 10:30. Kind of lame. Thankfully upgrades on United are easy to come by and they are serving again. 
 

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dcar00

dcar00 14035

Posted
Posted

sweden is interesting because they didnt do masks or shutdown.  they basically had a 4 month "wave" of cases and deaths.  

initial smaller wave, plateau, big wave, then precipitous drop

their initial smaller wave was larger than Texas' but our drop from the peak is slower(this could be the case data screwup).

shutdown with people not moving around certainly did work but didn't need to go as long as it did.  I think masks may help flatten the curve a little but I think the amount it does is overblown given the sweden data.  probably best bet in hindsight was shutdown for 2-3 weeks max and then open with masks without large gathering potential superspreader events.

 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89447

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

It’s early, but I believe the masks are working 

I think so too.  At least until...

2 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

I fully trust everyone to drop their guard and have a resurgence in about a month.  Feels like the furk aggy rollercoaster.

Furk.

And I have been seeing more people without masks around Austin.  Still most are wearing them when around others, but plenty of times it's clear they are in the "fuck it" camp.

Labor Day is going to really fuck things up.

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J.R. Juniors Junior Jr.

J.R. Juniors Junior Jr. 1084

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, dcar00 said:

sweden is interesting because they didnt do masks or shutdown.  they basically had a 4 month "wave" of cases and deaths.  

initial smaller wave, plateau, big wave, then precipitous drop

their initial smaller wave was larger than Texas' but our drop from the peak is slower(this could be the case data screwup).

shutdown with people not moving around certainly did work but didn't need to go as long as it did.  I think masks may help flatten the curve a little but I think the amount it does is overblown given the sweden data.  probably best bet in hindsight was shutdown for 2-3 weeks max and then open with masks without large gathering potential superspreader events.

 

If Sweden were the same population as Texas, they would have around 5,000 more deaths than Texas, so not very impressive, IMO.  

Sweden has 5,821 deaths for 10 million people, Texas has 30 million people and and 12,266 deaths.

It doesn't necessarily sound like you're  100% repping the Swedish approach, just throwing this out there for those who are.

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dcar00

dcar00 14035

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, J.R. Juniors Junior Jr. said:

If Sweden were the same population as Texas, they would have around 5,000 more deaths than Texas, so not very impressive, IMO.  

Sweden has 5,821 deaths for 10 million people, Texas has 30 million people and and 12,266 deaths.

It doesn't necessarily sound like you're  100% repping the Swedish approach, just throwing this out there for those who are.

yes, assuming their numbers and the numbers of the countries near them are accurate their approach resulted in more deaths per capita.  I am not anti shutdown or anti mask.  I wear one when required. the shutdown was to stop the hospital overrun not to stop the virus.  IMO, we did that but I think longer than 2-3 weeks was a serious law of diminishing returns(especially when you consider the economy and other health consequences of a shutdown).  IMO, masks don't do a lot to stop the spread but its certainly not zero and if a private business or govt facility says I have to wear one then fine.

I think Texas and other states did a better job of protecting the elderly which keeps out deaths down per case/capita.

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J.R. Juniors Junior Jr.

J.R. Juniors Junior Jr. 1084

Posted
Posted
Just now, dcar00 said:

yes, assuming their numbers and the numbers of the countries near them are accurate their approach resulted in more deaths per capita.  I am not anti shutdown or anti mask.  I wear one when required. the shutdown was to stop the hospital overrun not to stop the virus.  IMO, we did that but I think longer than 2-3 weeks was a serious law of diminishing returns(especially when you consider the economy and other health consequences of a shutdown).  IMO, masks don't do a lot to stop the spread but its certainly not zero and if a private business or govt facility says I have to wear one then fine.

I think Texas and other states did a better job of protecting the elderly which keeps out deaths down per case/capita.

Families of people in Comal County nursing homes may have issues with our success in protecting the elderly.

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dcar00

dcar00 14035

Posted
Posted
Just now, J.R. Juniors Junior Jr. said:

Families of people in Comal County nursing homes may have issues with our success in protecting the elderly.

i'm talking about overall. but certainly there will be cases where it didn't work.  the virus is certainly very efficient.

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Helobious

Helobious 9481

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, XYZ said:

...unless we are getting close to heard immunity.

I don’t know that that’s anywhere close to happening. Take the RGV, an area of the state hit particularly hard. 4 counties, little over 1 million people, almost 50,000 positive cases and more than 2,000 deaths. Very generous extrapolation might put the total number of people that have been infected down there at near 100,000. In other words not even 10% of people in one of the hardest hit areas have caught it. 

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bluto

bluto 4893

Posted
Posted

The Sweden approach and results thus far are encouraging but comparing them to US requires significant adjustments. For starters our obesity rate is 3x and that over half their population lives solo. Not intended as commentary but mere fact in this thread... Swedes have govt mandated sick pay and universal healthcare as well, so, theoretically at least, they are more likely to seek care and treatment before it’s symptoms become dire

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XYZ

XYZ 2154

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Hate said:

Judging by the amount of traffic I’ve seen lately, things are opening back up even if not officially. At least it seems like there are a lot more people than there were just a month ago.

Gagree. Maybe 75% of normal traffic. Is there any objective measurement of traffic in the Austin area (HOVs excluded)?

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted

Holy shit, down to they keychain and bottle opener.  And he wears longhorn gloves in August but won’t be troubled to wear a flimsy mask?   Not a good look for us.  This could be any one of a dozen posters on here.  

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89447

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Lobo said:

Holy shit, down to they keychain and bottle opener.  And he wears longhorn gloves in August but won’t be troubled to wear a flimsy mask?   Not a good look for us.  This could be any one of a dozen posters on here.  

Well, we know it's not armybrat, because armybrat is not an asshole, and because the guy in the video is way, way too young to be armybrat.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted

Several people are dressed for cooler weather but their accents still say some place hot.  Weird.  That guy will be outed by monday morning.  Poor bastard.  

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89447

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Several people are dressed for cooler weather but their accents still say some place hot.  Weird.  That guy will be outed by monday morning.  Poor bastard.  

What if he's a Texan vacationing in Colorado?  Because apparently 75% of us vacation there every year.  The 60s would be downright chilly for a Texan.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

Alaska

Winner.  Winner.  That explains the attire and femAle girth.  Guy lions like he walked out the co-op clearance section though.  Dammit.  This’ll get play for a week considering the physical threats made.  What a fucking asshole.  
please don’t let us find out he’s the Anchorage chapter president of Texas Exes 

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