COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[kevwun 15652]

I'd rather err on the side of caution when lives are at stake.

[Message Board User 12389]

30 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Schools opening and labor day are going to lead to a bigger spike than last time.  They city is being sensible.  Or they can wait until the hospitals fill back up and lots more folks have died.

There will almost assuredly NOT be a bigger spike than last time.

We’ll see in a few weeks I guess.

[Bevo 13527]

3 minutes ago, kevwun said:

I'd rather err on the side of caution when lives are at stake.

That's fine but let's not make declarative statements that are pure guesses.

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

8 minutes ago, kevwun said:

I'd rather err on the side of caution when lives are at stake.

Good thing you've never driven a car. Those things are killer!

[BrazilHorn 6576]

17 minutes ago, kevwun said:

I'd rather err on the side of caution when lives are at stake.

I don't disagree but after 6 months of this at one point we need to hit what I would call the "Nut Allergy" stage of this disease.

Here is what I mean by that: Given that 82% of all deaths are from 60 years old or greater, and if you are under 60 studies show that deaths are highly attributed to severe obesity (40+ BMI) or significant underlying health issues then people in these buckets should start to act like they have a peanut allergy.

When you have a Nut allergy you don't eat things from places that also cook with nuts. You ask the waiter if there are nuts in the dish, you let the airline know you are traveling etc etc. The onus is on you to prepare and avoid encounters with nuts. Other folks can help, eg if you come to my house for dinner, I can ensure I have washed counters a lot, not prepared anything that could trigger an reaction etc etc

In terms of CV19 if you are old or fat or have significant autoimmune/respiratory issues, you need to be responsible and not put yourself in situations where you can be compromised. This may mean not seeing your grand-kids, or going out to eat  in a restaurant etc. Ultimately you need to bear some responsibility for what you allow yourself to be exposed to.

I agree waiting post labor day isn't a bad approach, but I think Stage 2 will be a nearly impossible standard to hit now that CV19 is more pervasive across Travis County

Edited August 31, 2020 by BrazilHorn

[CowboyFred 1151]

22 minutes ago, bolverk said:

June 8 was about one week before all hell broke loose on our local caseload. Given Labor Day and back-to-school, I can see the rationale for some hesitation since we've already set the precedent for a huge leap from such a small number if we get sloppy.

From what I saw on social media, bars in San Antonio and Austin were already open and let’s just say social distancing was not in effect.  We’re fucked(again).

[South Austin 52144]

19 minutes ago, Bevo said:

That's fine but let's not make declarative statements that are pure guesses.

Do you not understand what we do here?

[kevwun 15652]

At every stage of this thing, people have screamed that some aspect of our response was going overboard.  And at every stage they have ended up being wrong and we got to live with the consequences.  Personally, I'm tired of finding everything out in the hardest way possible.  It kind of fucking sucks.

Edited August 31, 2020 by kevwun

[Bevo 13527]

3 minutes ago, CowboyFred said:

From what I saw on social media, bars in San Antonio and Austin were already open and let’s just say social distancing was not in effect.  We’re fucked(again).

I went to Ranch 616 on Saturday night and everything around it was dead. Social distancing was working and was pretty much a non-issue.

[Bevo 13527]

6 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Do you not understand what we do here?

Your mom?

[Bevo 13527]

11 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Do you not understand what we do here?

Sorry about the mom joke. I feel bad.

[Texas_Rocks 346]

AUSTIN (KXAN) — With active cases of COVID-19 in slight decline around Texas, a projection by modelers at the University of Texas at Austin raises new concerns. It suggests there will be 15,000 more deaths in Texas over the next three weeks.

The model by UT’s College of Natural Sciences predicts that more than 23,000 Texans will die as a result of COVID-19 by Aug. 31. Currently 8,459 Texans have died since the pandemic began. The predicted escalation would represent a 177% increase by Aug. 31.

 

 

Haven’t been paying attention to the COVID situation for a few weeks and this was the first post I landed on. Since we’re now at “Aug 31” it seems like a good time to reconcile UT’s prediction with the present numbers. Not a “gotcha” question because I honestly have no idea. Just hoping someone with a good grasp on the numbers can chime in with a reasonable comparison.

[atomheartbevo 89447]

42 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

When you have a Nut allergy you don't eat things from places that also cook with nuts. You ask the waiter if there are nuts in the dish, you let the airline know you are traveling etc etc. The onus is on you to prepare and avoid encounters with nuts. Other folks can help, eg if you come to my house for dinner, I can ensure I have washed counters a lot, not prepared anything that could trigger an reaction etc etc

Or in this case, wash our hands and wear masks when we are out and about.  Repeating what's been said hundreds of times in this thread, ff we would all do these simple things, we wouldn't need lockdowns.

We don't need to be the Alaskan dipshit that thinks God ordained that we shouldn't wear masks or something.

It just fucking pisses me off that people want to bitch about the state of the economy and what level we are at, but they don't want to wear masks into stores/offices/public spaces where other people are around.

[BrazilHorn 6576]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Or in this case, wash our hands and wear masks when we are out and about.  Repeating what's been said hundreds of times in this thread, ff we would all do these simple things, we wouldn't need lockdowns.

We don't need to be the Alaskan dipshit that thinks God ordained that we shouldn't wear masks or something.

It just fucking pisses me off that people want to bitch about the state of the economy and what level we are at, but they don't want to wear masks into stores/offices/public spaces where other people are around.

No doubt. Wear masks, wash your hands and avoid situations (asshole to elbows in a bar eg) where you could contribute to spread of CV19. It is not that hard.

[BrazilHorn 6576]

17 minutes ago, Texas_Rocks said:

Haven’t been paying attention to the COVID situation for a few weeks and this was the first post I landed on. Since we’re now at “Aug 31” it seems like a good time to reconcile UT’s prediction with the present numbers. Not a “gotcha” question because I honestly have no idea. Just hoping someone with a good grasp on the numbers can chime in with a reasonable comparison.

We are about half that with 12, 807 deaths around a 50% increase from where Texas was at when this estimate was made. Not going to judge UT's model and at times if you ran a straight linear forecast (especially when shit was really getting bad in early July) you could easily have made this estimate.

However we are well below the number UT estimated Texas to be. Texas overall sitting around a 2.1% mortality rate across 637k cases.

 

[South Austin 52144]

31 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Sorry about the mom joke. I feel bad.

No way you typed that with a straight face.

[Hpara759 1777]

3 hours ago, DalTxHornFan said:

 Yet, somehow our betters at City of Austin and Travis County have determined that we all need to "Stay Home. Work Safe." until December 15, 2020?  I don't get it. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/texas/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travis_County,_Texas

November 4th depending on outcome

[Texas_Rocks 346]

Thanks, BrazilHorn

[B00M 6280]

34 minutes ago, Texas_Rocks said:

Haven’t been paying attention to the COVID situation for a few weeks and this was the first post I landed on. Since we’re now at “Aug 31” it seems like a good time to reconcile UT’s prediction with the present numbers. Not a “gotcha” question because I honestly have no idea. Just hoping someone with a good grasp on the numbers can chime in with a reasonable comparison.

Been wondering the same, thanks to BH for doing the math. UT did back track the claim later the same day the news broke (Editor's note) saying it was "heavily influenced by a late July data point"...

https://www.kvue.com/mobile/article/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-ut-deaths-prediction-model-texas-austin-august-cases-update/269-f3523a4a-658f-460a-aff7-5bfa369d7067

Edited August 31, 2020 by B00M

[BrazilHorn 6576]

One other interesting fact from the Texas Department of Health site is that through 8/14 (most recent day they posted nursing home & assisted living date) there were:

11,818 total deaths in Texas on 8/14

of those

2,793 were from nursing homes & 366 were from assisted living facilities for a total of 3,159 or 26.73% of all deaths in Texas. So a little over 1 in 4 deaths as of 8/14 were from nursing homes and assisted living facilities. These are self reported numbers so I wouldn't be shocked to see them actually be potentially under-reporting these.

Just crazy to imagine this.

[Helobious 9481]

9 minutes ago, Hpara759 said:

November 4th depending on outcome

I don’t know why people still cry that this is some liberal conspiracy. The economy has already made a full recovery. Take a look at the stock market sometime. 

[BrazilHorn 6576]

OK, just because I am between some meetings and have been going down the rabbit hole I decided to look at nursing home/assisted living as % of age group deaths in Travis County.

So as noted above as of 8/14 Nursing Home & Assisted Living Facilities accounted for 26.73% of all deaths in Texas.

For Travis County as of 8/14 we have had 95 deaths in Nursing Homes & 18 deaths in Assisted Living, for a total of 113. This is out of (as of 8/15 deaths) 336.

This is 29.27% of total deaths or a slightly higher rate than the overall state average. If I make a blanket assumption (always dangerous) that everyone who died in one of these places is 60 years old or older, then this becomes 113 deaths out 275 Travis county deaths (as of 8/15 from 60 years old +) or 41%.

Interesting to note that the vast majority of deaths as of 8/15 (81.8%) were from 60 year old + individuals and of those 41% were in nursing homes/assisted living.

 

[BradInATX 9208]

25 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

OK, just because I am between some meetings and have been going down the rabbit hole I decided to look at nursing home/assisted living as % of age group deaths in Travis County.

So as noted above as of 8/14 Nursing Home & Assisted Living Facilities accounted for 26.73% of all deaths in Texas.

For Travis County as of 8/14 we have had 95 deaths in Nursing Homes & 18 deaths in Assisted Living, for a total of 113. This is out of (as of 8/15 deaths) 336.

This is 29.27% of total deaths or a slightly higher rate than the overall state average. If I make a blanket assumption (always dangerous) that everyone who died in one of these places is 60 years old or older, then this becomes 113 deaths out 275 Travis county deaths (as of 8/15 from 60 years old +) or 41%.

Interesting to note that the vast majority of deaths as of 8/15 (81.8%) were from 60 year old + individuals and of those 41% were in nursing homes/assisted living.

 

That's actually a much lower rate than we saw early on. I think NYC was something like half of the deaths at nursing homes. Which either means we've learned better how to keep it out of nursing homes, or it's just been changing demographics on cases. Or both. 

I can't wait to read the Freakonomics-style book that whoever writes about Covid in a few years. It's going to be fascinating.

Edited August 31, 2020 by BradInATX

[BrazilHorn 6576]

Just now, BradInATX said:

That's actually a much lower rate than we saw early on. I think NYC was something like half of the deaths at nursing homes. Which either means we've learned better how to keep it out of nursing homes, or it's just been changing demographics on cases. Or both. 

Yep was in mid 50's I believe. I think Texas did a better job of managing this in senior facilities as a result of what was coming out of Washington State, NY and others.

I also would imagine the change in demographics takes effect as there is a finite list of senior care locations for CV19 to run through.

It should also drive a reduced mortality rate overall as these demographic changes take place (which it is).

[atomheartbevo 89447]

At some point, students will be allowed back in the UT dorms, and I'm not talking about athletes that are being closely monitored.  Unless they are testing them in some capacity, we are liable to eventually see cases in the dorms.  That will be fun, especially since they may not even mass test until multiple cases are discovered.

That will skew our numbers, because those kids will be from all over Texas, but they will be within Austin city limits, so...

Edited August 31, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[Trey3216 15325]

20 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

That's actually a much lower rate than we saw early on. I think NYC was something like half of the deaths at nursing homes. Which either means we've learned better how to keep it out of nursing homes, or it's just been changing demographics on cases. Or both. 

I can't wait to read the Freakonomics-style book that whoever writes about Covid in a few years. It's going to be fascinating.

Yep, it's going to be a fascinating study.  I can't wait either.  

[UnivTex34 1763]

16 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

At some point, students will be allowed back in the UT dorms, and I'm not talking about athletes that are being closely monitored.  Unless they are testing them in some capacity, we are liable to eventually see cases in the dorms.  That will be fun, especially since they may not even mass test until multiple cases are discovered.

That will skew our numbers, because those kids will be from all over Texas, but they will be within Austin city limits, so...

This has already happened. I don't mean the skew, I mean the dorms are occupied already with normal students. Have 1 positive case in Jester, and 1 in SanJac.

 

https://thedailytexan.com/2020/08/31/two-ut-austin-dorm-residents-test-positive-for-covid-19

Edited August 31, 2020 by UnivTex34

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

It just fucking pisses me off that people want to bitch about the state of the economy and what level we are at, but they don't want to wear masks into stores/offices/public spaces where other people are around.

[Bevo 13527]

1 hour ago, South Austin said:

No way you typed that with a straight face.

You've had a rough week.

[crash_davis 23084]

34 minutes ago, UnivTex34 said:

This has already happened. I don't mean the skew, I mean the dorms are occupied already with normal students. Have 1 positive case in Jester, and 1 in SanJac.

 

https://thedailytexan.com/2020/08/31/two-ut-austin-dorm-residents-test-positive-for-covid-19

expect numbers to significantly increase. my freshman daughter knows of at least 3 others.

[Deej 76568]

3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Longer version

 

How pissed off did he get at Patterson's 6% blended increase?

[Newdoc 3433]

8 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

expect numbers to significantly increase. my freshman daughter knows of at least 3 others.

This is likely happening on every campus with high density communal living. This and irresponsible off campus parties is where the spread will happen. Very little will happen in classes where students are directly monitored.

[crash_davis 23084]

Just now, Newdoc said:

This is likely happening on every campus with high density communal living. This and irresponsible off campus parties is where the spread will happen. Very little will happen in classes where students are directly monitored.

i don't blame the kids. it's fucking college. partying is a god given right. and they only have online classes. as long as they are keeping to themselves and infecting themselves...ehh.

btw, the school is prepared. they will place covid kids into seclusion for at least 10 days and will feed the kids. i don't know if it's another dorm or hotel or what.

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

6 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

partying is a god given right

[BrazilHorn 6576]

57 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Yep, it's going to be a fascinating study.  I can't wait either.  

Yep - I am really curious to see:

A) effect on Social Security payments - Given how vast majority of deaths are from those that either could be or are close to SS eligibility

B) effect on health care costs given deaths of younger, obese individuals, those with multiple preexisting conditions & senior citizens

C) economic fallout from job losses

D) impact on commercial real estate from companies saying "fuck it we can all WFH"

E) impact on corporate recruiting as companies say "fuck it, employees can Work anywhere and WFH"

F) impact on residential real estate in high cost locales due to point E

G) studies on academic fallout & success/lack thereof from the loss of in school time

etc etc etc - It is going to be an amazingly fertile opportunity for some pretty cool research

[gmr548 16513]

November 4th depending on outcome

Take the whining to the CR aggy boi

[dcar00 14035]

16 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

i don't blame the kids. it's fucking college. partying is a god given right. and they only have online classes. as long as they are keeping to themselves and infecting themselves...ehh.

btw, the school is prepared. they will place covid kids into seclusion for at least 10 days and will feed the kids. i don't know if it's another dorm or hotel or what.

[Hate 20103]

Is the virus burning through college campuses really that bad as long as the kids stay on campus? Chances are most of them won’t even know they have and the one who do get sick are most likely the ones that should have stayed remote anyway. I know you have to worry about faculty and support staff, but it seems like they can be protected fairly well with distancing and masks. I could be very wrong about this and admit to such.

[Newdoc 3433]

23 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

btw, the school is prepared. they will place covid kids into seclusion for at least 10 days and will feed the kids. i don't know if it's another dorm or hotel or what.

None of this is surprising and as uou said, I don’t think you can take 18 to 22-year-olds and expect them to behave that much differently. I just think that there’s going to be some pretty quick spread that will be hard to put a cap on. Fortunately, the vast majority of these cases will be mild and students should get over it relatively quickly.

[Pimphand 5597]

On 8/10/2020 at 12:04 PM, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Do we really need to explain this again? Fuck.

Some fucking deathwave you got there nostradamus.

[Guest Lobo]

1 hour ago, Hate said:

Is the virus burning through college campuses really that bad as long as the kids stay on campus? Chances are most of them won’t even know they have and the one who do get sick are most likely the ones that should have stayed remote anyway. I know you have to worry about faculty and support staff, but it seems like they can be protected fairly well with distancing and masks. I could be very wrong about this and admit to such.

Do you even Townie, bro?  

[Ignatius 4002]

3 hours ago, Helobious said:The economy has already made a full recovery. Take a look at the stock market sometime. 

Sarcasm, right?

[Chopper 17169]

5 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

Given that 82% of all deaths are from 60 years old or greater,

Do you understand that more elderly have died in the US because of government failure, not because it's a feature of the virus? Your assumption is wrong; your conclusion is even more wrong. 

Edited August 31, 2020 by Chopper

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

56 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

Some fucking deathwave you got there nostradamus.

are you retarded? i went back to see this awesome gotcha...surely you're not so stupid to think i was arguing that a massive death wave was going to follow a steady decline in hospitalizations? i'm not sure you have any clue what's going on any given minute of the day. good luck with that man.

 

[Message Board User 12389]

Welp - if you're going to report the good, gotta report the bad.  Hospitalizations up 32 statewide from yesterday.

 

[Guest Lobo]

No good data sets on this yet, but I wonder how many parents are in a situation where they have to go into work (either the single mom/dad or both) and as such...with the kids remote learning at home, they've asked one of the kids' grandparents to come and watch the kid during the digital schoolday while at work?  And then between learning pods, activities, and sports leagues...the kids will pick it up this Autumn/Winter and transfer it to a vulnerable grandparent who is at the house either part-time or full-on living there during remote school?  I realize that scenario has a lot of "ifs", but I'd bet a good amount that there are households like this now numbering in the millions nationwide.  

Not being alarmist, just wondering if/when the next uptick will occur and why it will occur.  If I could fly my mother down here right now to help out with Spanish immersion pod and give my wife a break, I absolutely would.  But if she gets the virus, with her pre-existing conditions, she's likely dead.  My wife's parents are in decent health for their age and they think this virus is bullshit, but yet---they think Austin is too much of a hotspot and it could compromise their health.  I dunno.  

All I know is tomorrow's heat index is going to flirt with 115 degrees.  So if you wake up with the chills, walk outside. 

[gmr548 16513]

are you retarded?

Look who you're talking to

[Texas Jeff 1932]

UT has a pretty good dashboard here:

https://coronavirus.utexas.edu/ut-austin-covid-19-dashboard

They are doing "proactive community testing", whatever that means.  Last week they did 678 tests and had one positive.

[Neonmoon 38127]

It means they are testing large groups of random people to detect clusters before they spread. It’s very smart

[Dbeasy 14969]

Message Board User - how many online forums do you post at? How do you get paid? By the site, flat rate? How do I get in touch with your employer? I have some social media marketing I want to do. DM me details.