Texas Runoff Election - starts 6/29

[StassneyHorn 6776]

Creating thread for visibility. If you voted in the primary, you can only vote in the same party’s runoff. If you did not vote in the primary, you can vote in either party’s runoff. Early voting starts Monday June 29th and ends July 10th. Election Day is July 14th.

Won’t get into specific US House Seats cause I think there are 14, none of which are my district so I don’t have much to include. I’ll leave that up to anyone who wants to discuss. I believe two Austin area Dems have runoffs in 10 and 31. Not including 17. Ronny Jackson and Josh Winegarner primary has gotten pretty ugly in Amarillo. Kathleen Wall and Troy Nehls in Fort Bend will be interesting. The State House seats arent too exciting. In the State Senate, there is a chance to see if Eddie Lucio gets knocked out and to see just how close younger, more Progressive Latino/a voters are becoming in the Valley after Henry Cuellar barely hung on against Jessica Cisneros. 
 

Everyone’s favorite clown Robert Morrow is in the Republican runoff for State Board of Education. Google him if you haven’t before. Vote for him if you want to make Matt Mackowiak’s head explode.

Statewide- Royce West vs MJ Hegar in the Dem runoff for US Senate. Royce has been a Democrat in the Texas Lege for close to 27 years, MJ is known for her military service where she received a Purple Heart and joined with ACLU to apply pressure to get rid of the Combat Exclusion Act. Her viral ad got her a lot of attention in 2018, but fell just short in her district north of Austin.  Royce has gotten the bulk of endorsements from previous candidates who dropped out including third place finisher and the progressive in the race Cristina Tzintzun Ramirez. Hegar skipped a good number of candidate forums and was not well received by most the other candidates and got some heat for voting for Carly Fiorina in 2016. It seems to be a main part of Royce’s foil against her, he is a lifelong Democrat. I think the dynamics of the BLM movement taking off now helps Royce whereas MJ represents the suburban moms who are done with the GOP. Should be fun to watch.

For Railroad Commissioner it’s Roberto Alonzo and Chrysta Castaneda. Roberto spent enough money for an intern to make him a 2000s Clip Art website. Because of that, I’m voting for Castaneda. Anyone who knows them better, please post.

Edited June 27, 2020 by StassneyHorn

[Larry T. Spider 1747]

I’m still thinking about Royce vs MJ. I will say that MJ was the second politician I ever donated to and she did really well against Carter. I live in that district and she worked her ass off. It seems like the stage might be too big too fast and she has lost some momentum. She was a great fit for 31 because she understood the demographics so well. This is a different game but I don’t know much about Royce yet. 

Im also still contemplating Imam vs Mann. Imam is clearly smart and has been extremely visible. When I have heard her speak, it’s been less than inspiring though. I’m willing to forgive that as she’s new to this and has other strengths. Still need to research Mann and would like thoughts y’all have. I think one poster on here knows Imam.

[Voldemort86 2259]

I still can’t believe tzintzun Ramirez got so close to making the run off. 
 

Those types of candidates can’t win in a state like Texas. 

[Biff Tannen 46170]

2 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

Vote for him if you want to make Matt Mackowiak’s head explode.

That’s reason enough for me. 

[StassneyHorn 6776]

20 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I still can’t believe tzintzun Ramirez got so close to making the run off. 
 

Those types of candidates can’t win in a state like Texas. 

This year, IMO, was a case where the amount of Hispanic surnames diluted what could’ve been more concentrated support especially in the valley where people could have voted based solely on being female and Hispanic. You had one lady named Annie “Mama” Garcia on the ballot who was a white woman born in Minnesota who married a Spaniard while living abroad, an actual socialist/grifter in Sema Hernandez, and Cristina Tzintzun Ramirez who apologized for saying her name was more “Mexican” than Garcia or Lopez. Primary had wild stories that didn’t seem to catch on much cause there’s hardly any coverage.

Edited June 27, 2020 by StassneyHorn

[Texas73 422]

I still can’t believe tzintzun Ramirez got so close to making the run off. 
 

Those types of candidates can’t win in a state like Texas. 

 

How about the democrat for governor in the last election? I'm a yellow dog democrat but geesh Texas isn't ready for a candidate like her. 

Edited June 27, 2020 by Texas73

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, Texas73 said:

I still can’t believe tzintzun Ramirez got so close to making the run off. 
 

Those types of candidates can’t win in a state like Texas. 

 

How about the democrat for governor in the last election? I'm a yellow dog democrat but geesh Texas isn't ready for a candidate like her. 

Lupe Valdez was so bad that I voted for Abbott.

Texas Democrats need to improve their candidate quality across the board if they want to flip the state. I liked Beto and I like Hegar tho.

[Texas73 422]

1 minute ago, Voldemort86 said:

Lupe Valdez was so bad that I voted for Abbott.

Texas Democrats need to improve their candidate quality across the board if they want to flip the state. I liked Beto and I like Hegar tho.

The night she won she was smacking gum while at the podium and didn't give a good victory speech either. The gum smacking drove me crazy!

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, Texas73 said:

The night she won she was smacking gum while at the podium and didn't give a good victory speech either. The gum smacking drove me crazy!

Lupe could barely put a coherent sentence together. She was bad.

even Beto knew to stay away from her. It’s a shame we didn’t have a good governor candidate to help the ticket, but we would’ve still lost in last year anyway.

[mchookem 16771]

is there any polling of West and Hegar v. Cornyn? i.e. who polls better? bc that's what i'm basing my decision on 😐

[SydneyCarton 49510]

So I’m in Houston. Who should I be looking at or is there no action for me?

[cactusflinthead 27628]

26 minutes ago, mchookem said:

is there any polling of West and Hegar v. Cornyn? i.e. who polls better? bc that's what i'm basing my decision on 😐

Three-term incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn enjoys leads in the low double digits over both Democrats, the poll by The News and UT Tyler found. If the general election were held today, he’d run ahead of West, 35% to 24%; and Hegar, 37% to 24%.

pretty stale poll though May 7

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2020/05/07/support-among-whites-independents-older-texans-fuels-mj-hegar-lead-over-royce-west-in-texas-senate-runoff/

24 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

So I’m in Houston. Who should I be looking at or is there no action for me?

I checked the local party website. Denton county has one small area in TX 24. Other than that it's a railroad commish and the Senate.

[StassneyHorn 6776]

Fox News polled the race when they released the Biden numbers a few days back. Cornyn had a ten point lead over both of them. I’d expect that to tighten up significantly once there is an actual declared winner.

[Voldemort86 2259]

Cornyn has been going after trump lately.

Cornyn seems to be genuinely worried about Trump moving his seat to lean republican or hopefully tossup category.

trumps polling numbers are in free fall.

Edited June 27, 2020 by Voldemort86

[Guest Lobo]

Cornyn had been told in no uncertain terms by McConnell that he needed to continue to support Trump publicly and privately so Mitch could keep his puppet in the Oval Office.  If he did that, he could get back into Senate leadership (RCC, Policy Chairman, et. al.) and retain his coveted spot on Senate Judiciary.  

I think ole' John has finally realized, he can't have any of that shit if he's no longer a U.S. Senator.  

Also keep in mind when early voting starts tomorrow, there's also a special election on your ballot (not a run-off) for Texas SD-14 (Kirk Watson's old gig).  

PLEASE VOTE EDDIE RODRIGUEZ!!!  It's a special election so you can vote in it no matter which party's ballot you pull for the other run-off races.  

[Dnaguy 12632]

15 hours ago, mchookem said:

is there any polling of West and Hegar v. Cornyn? i.e. who polls better? bc that's what i'm basing my decision on 😐

 

West is black and can possibly tap into the BLM energy

Hegar is a white lady veteran. Suburbs / new transplant Texans written all over her.

 

Not one is particularly strong w/ Latinos and that’s a huge weakness of both.

 

So what’s the race look like in November? Is BLM / police violence protesting going to turn off suburban votes or do people still line up w/ their cause? Is the woman thing going to be in play? Now healthcare seems to be an issue w/ the ACA repeal talk, so who is best on healthcare?

I think that Hagar may have a little more upside and has less of a record to go after. West has been in politics for over 20+ years. That being said, his experience / network within Texas politics is a big asset.

 

Soo.....

 

IDK.

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13736]

Cornyn is helped by the removal of the straight ticket option. There would be a few lazy, normally-gop voters that would have checked that box to get rid of trump and throw the bums out attitude. Now they actually have to check every race which helps John break away somewhat from trump.

[Guest Lobo]

59 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

 

West is black and can possibly tap into the BLM energy

Hegar is a white lady veteran. Suburbs / new transplant Texans written all over her.

 

Not one is particularly strong w/ Latinos and that’s a huge weakness of both.

 

So what’s the race look like in November? Is BLM / police violence protesting going to turn off suburban votes or do people still line up w/ their cause? Is the woman thing going to be in play? Now healthcare seems to be an issue w/ the ACA repeal talk, so who is best on healthcare?

I think that Hagar may have a little more upside and has less of a record to go after. West has been in politics for over 20+ years. That being said, his experience / network within Texas politics is a big asset.

 

Soo.....

 

IDK.

 

Good take.  People forget that Gen. Noriega garnered 3.4mm votes against Cornyn in 2008.  Impressive when you consider that while O'Rourke bumped all the way up to 4.0mm votes ten years later, he did so with 4x spending that Noriega did and a much larger tidal shift in demography.  Cornyn is much more vulnerable against a "D" if that person can tap into the Hispanic vote.  It's there in the most non-talked about race in Texas Senate races of the last generation.  People couldn't shut the fuck up about Beto, but he had massive demographic favorables, got overly-funded from out of state, and was a media darling and he only gained 600,000 more votes than Noriega got a full decade earlier.  I know y'all get butthurt when I discount O'Rourke, so let me just add---Noriega had the quietest 3.4mm Senate votes you're gonna see in Texas for awhile.  It'll take a million more than that to usurp an incumbent Cornyn.  But he did with no national media exposure, a huge deficit on fundraising, and basically ran a simple platform, "I'm a veteran with Mexican roots who believes in education."  Pretty simple.  You get a "D" to tap into just a portion of that and coalesce some fundraising at the national level, and tie Cornyn to Trump, and tap into Hispanic voting turnout and Cornyn is fucked.  You just reboot the O'Rourke v. Cruz playbook and you lose while burning cash that so many other candidates could have benefited from.  You're being baited/beto'ed and you don't even know it.  And I say this as someone proudly supporting a half dozen Democrats this cycle.

[StassneyHorn 6776]

Yea the Texas Tribune somewhat covered this when it came up last cycle. The Valley largely wants a Hispanic candidate as their nominee, plain and simple. Beto only received 62% of the primary vote in 2018 despite his massive fundraising.

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/03/08/texas-primary-democrat-beto-orourke-confronts-hispanic-surname-advanta/

 

[StassneyHorn 6776]

There will be a second Dem Senate debate between MJ and Royce tomorrow evening on KVUE at 630 and across their social media streams. The Houston Chronicle and Dallas Morning News both endorsed Royce for the runoff this weekend.

https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/editorials/2020/06/28/heres-our-recommendation-in-the-democratic-primary-runoff-for-us-senate/?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true
 

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/opinion/editorials/article/Editorial-We-recommend-Royce-West-in-the-15370466.php

 

[mchookem 16771]

2 hours ago, Dnaguy said:

 

West is black and can possibly tap into the BLM energy

Hegar is a white lady veteran. Suburbs / new transplant Texans written all over her.

 

Not one is particularly strong w/ Latinos and that’s a huge weakness of both.

 

So what’s the race look like in November? Is BLM / police violence protesting going to turn off suburban votes or do people still line up w/ their cause? Is the woman thing going to be in play? Now healthcare seems to be an issue w/ the ACA repeal talk, so who is best on healthcare?

I think that Hagar may have a little more upside and has less of a record to go after. West has been in politics for over 20+ years. That being said, his experience / network within Texas politics is a big asset.

 

Soo.....

 

IDK.

 

well...tanks for nuffin 😋

[Pescado_Rojo 19590]

23 hours ago, Larry T. Spider said:

I’m still thinking about Royce vs MJ. I will say that MJ was the second politician I ever donated to and she did really well against Carter. I live in that district and she worked her ass off. It seems like the stage might be too big too fast and she has lost some momentum. She was a great fit for 31 because she understood the demographics so well. This is a different game but I don’t know much about Royce yet. 

Im also still contemplating Imam vs Mann. Imam is clearly smart and has been extremely visible. When I have heard her speak, it’s been less than inspiring though. I’m willing to forgive that as she’s new to this and has other strengths. Still need to research Mann and would like thoughts y’all have. I think one poster on here knows Imam.

I live in Tx31 as well, and I wish MJ had run for this seat again. Agree totally about the too big too fast thing. She got close...really, really close last time, in a wave election in maybe the fastest "purpling" district in Texas and somehow convinced herself that she needed to jump up to a statewide race from there. I think she'd be a better candidate than either Imam or Mann, and because of that I think Carter probably hangs onto what should probably be a Blue pick up. 

[tx 3 putt 78707]

Please DO NOT VOTE for Robert Morrow !!!!!

[gmr548 16702]

On 6/27/2020 at 4:34 PM, mchookem said:

is there any polling of West and Hegar v. Cornyn? i.e. who polls better? bc that's what i'm basing my decision on 😐

They both have roughly equal 0.1 percent chances of winning. Hegar will get more national coverage/money, FWIW.

[StassneyHorn 6776]

35% of Harris County Mail in ballots have already been received by 3 o’clock on day one, 42k out of 120k. Texas Secretary of State office updated the totals every day of the primary, if they do it for the runoff I will try to post when available. I usually type the largest counties Elections office for Twitter to look for updates before then (e.g Twitter Harris County Elections, Twitter Dallas County Elections, Twitter Travis County elections etc if you want to search yourself)

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

 Both of my parents are over 65. I’m trying to get them to vote by mail this year.

how difficult does Texas make the process to sign up? How long does it take?
 

nobody in my family votes in the run offs. Just the primary and the general.

[Biff Tannen 46170]

3 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

 Both of my parents are over 65. I’m trying to get them to vote by mail this year.

how difficult does Texas make the process to sign up? How long does it take?
 

nobody in my family votes in the run offs. Just the primary and the general.

@StassneyHorn

[Ghost of LL 15698]

15 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

 Both of my parents are over 65. I’m trying to get them to vote by mail this year.

how difficult does Texas make the process to sign up? How long does it take?
 

nobody in my family votes in the run offs. Just the primary and the general.

It takes about 30 seconds to fill out the form.  It can be printed off from their local district clerk's website.  People over 65 can vote by mail as a matter of right.  People who are disabled* can vote by mail as a matter of right.

As to the Senate run-off, I think M.J. is probably a better candidate.  Depending on what you want in an officeholder, Royce may be a better senator.

Royce West runs the Dallas Democratic machine.  He's very good at it.  He holds power and is able to funnel stuff to his friends and hurt his enemies.  And that is really kind of an impressive accomplishment from a state senate seat, which generally isn't all that powerful a position.  It's surprising that he is able to control the county judge; structurally, it should be the other way around.

So if you're a person who likes LBJ--and I like LBJ--then you should be on board with Royce West.  There is no such thing as a Texas Democratic Party.  And having Royce West as a senator will instantly create a Democratic Party in this state.  He'll build a structure very quickly, and it will quickly rival the Trumpublican structure in this state.

Now, if you're a good-government type--and I'm a good-government guy--you should hate Royce West.  It's like the stupid Interstate 345 deal in Dallas.  A bunch of people want to tear down I-345 for a bunch of very good reasons.  I don't think Royce actually cares.  But there's some financial opportunity in it.  So he finagles it so that they're not going to tear it down and they're instead going to put a bunch of soccer fields under the elevated freeway (because what could be healthier while running around playing soccer than breathing in exhaust).  And who gets the contract--Royce West's son.

 

 

 

* The voter is the sole determiner as to whether s/he is "disabled."  The voter does not need to identify the disability on the form, and the district clerk cannot challenge the claim of disability.

[StassneyHorn 6776]

17 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

 Both of my parents are over 65. I’m trying to get them to vote by mail this year.

how difficult does Texas make the process to sign up? How long does it take?
 

nobody in my family votes in the run offs. Just the primary and the general.

They’d be on a time crunch for vote by mail ballots for the runoff, but if their intentions are primaries and generals the application to vote by mail is below. Being 65, they just need to check that. If they want to vote by mail in all future elections have them check Annual in 6A as well as any resulting runoff to cover all bases. They’ll get an application to vote by mail for every single election after that, including runoffs. If they want to go in person, they can bring the mail in ballot with them and rip it up there in front of the people.
 

https://webservices.sos.state.tx.us/forms/5-15f.pdf

 

[Guest Lobo]

If you're anal retentive about the rules like a lot of people I know, just know that if you left your house at all today.  Or any point this weekend, you're in a 14-day infection window.  That just so happens to overlap with early voting.  So you are not able, "disabled" if you will, from going out to tight quarters voting locations for the next two weeks.  Damn shame.  So you're certainly doing a public health good by sending in your vote via mail. Thank you for your concern for your fellow citizens. 

[Biff Tannen 46170]

Also, since the address is nowhere on the application, here's where you mail it to if you're in Travis:

 

Dana DeBeauvoir, Travis County Clerk

Elections Division

PO Box 149325

Austin, TX 78714-9325

[StassneyHorn 6776]

Also GoLL has a great breakdown, I fall into the Royce camp though. Some may argue he’d be better to stay in the State Senate to navigate redistricting if they’re still a minority party without the State House. While I think Beto did great in 2018 and has a roadmap to building infrastructure in the state, I don’t trust either Castro twin to be worth a damn in doing any legwork and pushing candidates forward. They give off wolf in the waiting vibes IMO. MJ Hegar is new and has no skins on the wall, but could possibly do some hard work if needed, but passed up what many think would be a slam dunk victory in 31 this time around. Wendy Davis ran into a buzz saw after a feelgood moment in 2014 and left no work to advance on, so I would want Royce and Beto working in some kind of operation or build.

Edited June 29, 2020 by StassneyHorn

[Pescado_Rojo 19590]

Early voted today. FYI, if you're in WilCo and you look up Democratic Primary voting locations on the SOS website, they're likely wrong. The site said the CP library on Discovery was open for early voting, and when I got there it wasn't and I ended up at a Randall's on Cedar Creek, way over by Milburn Park. Call the place you plan to vote and make sure they're the right place before you get in your car and head over. On the bright side, it gave me an excuse to eat a late lunch at Levant Cafe. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

Thanks for all the help guys. Appreciate it.

lets get that racist out of the White House this year, assuming he doesn’t quit like a baby first.

Edited June 29, 2020 by Voldemort86

[Biff Tannen 46170]

I have a polling location for the runoff literally within a 1 minute walk from my house.  This has never been a polling location before.  Would be great if they would do it again for November.  How does that get decided?

[Voldemort86 2259]

16 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I have a polling location for the runoff literally within a 1 minute walk from my house.  This has never been a polling location before.  Would be great if they would do it again for November.  How does that get decided?

Do you live in an urban location?
 

abbott and indictment Paxton are probably doing all they possibly can to consolidate and close polling locations in the major counties. The less convenient the better for those crooked fucks.

[StassneyHorn 6776]

A lot of the voting locations that used to be at grocery stores aren’t open for early voting in Travis county if I remember right. Not sure how they decide on it.

Edited June 30, 2020 by StassneyHorn

[StassneyHorn 6776]

link for the 30 minute uninterrupted debate below. Things went smoothly first 15 minutes or so for a virtual debate. Around 16-18 minutes, in a debate, we get the classic “describe in one word” question that makes me want to cut somebody cause that’s not a debate. They then allow the candidates to ask each other a question. Hegar asked a non confrontational question. West asked about Hegar contributing to the John Cornyn campaign in the past and also voting in the 2016 Republican primary. Both legit points in my opinion. Cornyn will definitely bring up Hegar contributions to him should she make it through and dampen Dem support. From there it’s an awkward 2-3 minute “mom and dad are arguing and getting divorced” cringe because of the video lag.

Also, the contribution was 25 dollars. She said she had to in order to get a meeting. You are not getting a meeting with a US Senator for 25 dollars. She also hit Royce for being a career politician. Career politicians in Texas are part time employees and make 7200/yr and a per diem of 190/day when in session. He’s a lawyer and probably used his office to get the school district clients he has, but he’s more a career lawyer and not politician. 
 

 

[Biff Tannen 46170]

3 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Do you live in an urban location?
 

abbott and indictment Paxton are probably doing all they possibly can to consolidate and close polling locations in the major counties. The less convenient the better for those crooked fucks.

Yep. Hyde Park in Austin. Polling site is at Ridgetop Elementary. 

[StassneyHorn 6776]

Approx 156k cumulative votes cast yesterday. 123.5k mail in ballots, 32.4k in person. Frio County has highest percentage of registered voters participate at 5.18%, Harris County with highest raw total of 31.2k votes

https://earlyvoting.texas-election.com/Elections/getEVDetails.do

[Bookman 4764]

I met Royce West about 15 years ago and in my conversation with him it seemed to me like he wasn't that smart.

[StassneyHorn 6776]

Because it’s the world we live in, Tina Knowles, Beyoncé’s mom, just posted on Instagram to her 2.5 million followers support for Royce West. Mix that with BLM protest energy it could have the potential to move the needle especially if her daughter gets involved (she’s got 140M).

Edited July 1, 2020 by StassneyHorn

[Firemans4Horn 18533]

West is too corrupt in my opinion. Made millions in partnership with Trump mega-donor G Brint Ryan

https://www.keranews.org/post/new-disclosures-show-texas-sen-royce-west-making-big-bucks-government-contracts

 

and him and his son are completely fucking over the I-345 highway removal in Dallas to line their own pockets. I think Cornyn is vulnerable but neither one of these candidates look very strong. But I’m staying far away from west. 

[Bruh Man 3160]

On 6/28/2020 at 9:18 AM, StassneyHorn said:

Yea the Texas Tribune somewhat covered this when it came up last cycle. The Valley largely wants a Hispanic candidate as their nominee, plain and simple. Beto only received 62% of the primary vote in 2018 despite his massive fundraising.

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/03/08/texas-primary-democrat-beto-orourke-confronts-hispanic-surname-advanta/

 

Soon.

[Voldemort86 2259]

Staying out of the run off, but I’ll vote for either west or Hegar over cornyn. Not like it will do any good, but let’s try to narrow his margin of victory as much as possible.

[StassneyHorn 6776]

TRIGGER WARNING NUMBERS

-Two days through the 2020 Democratic Runoff, there have been 207,854 cumulative votes. 110,952 from five largest counties. 139,482 in 10 largest. 157,212 from the 15 largest.

-In 2016 Democratic runoff through two days, I could not find the overall total on the SOS website, so fuck me. There were 33,102 from five largest counties, 48,034 in 10 largest, 53,011 from 15 largest and that's where the numbers end for counties. 

-Looks to be consistently 3x as many voters in the 5, 10, and 15 largest counties overall totals in 2020 compared to 2016.

Star Performers

• Denton County had 522 early voters through two days in 2016 runoff. Through two days in 2020, they have 4,616. 884% increase
• Colin County had 651 early voters through two days in 2016 runoff. Through two days in 2020, they have 4,528. 695% increase
• Williamson County had 1,033 early voters through two days in 2016 runoff. Through two days in 2020 they have 6,446. 624% increase
• Montgomery County had 376 early voters through two days in 2016 runoff. Through two days in 2020 they have 2,240. 596% increase
• Fort Bend County had 1,863 early voters through two days in 2016 runoff. Through two days in 2020 they have 6,798. 365% increase

To me these numbers represent energized, motivated people who quite possibly may stick with the party in the long run. Showing up the first two days of early voting in a primary runoff, either in person during a pandemic or doing the extra work to vote by mail, shows engagement. Obviously much different scenarios betweenn 2016 and 2020 but I think the reasoning holds. The suburbs are showing up in a big way. The Metroplex area (Denton and Colin), Austin suburbs (Wilco) Montgomery (getting those numbers in easily the most Aggy county lessens the deficit) and Fort Bend (the most popularly targeted "purpling" county and fastest growing) all tell good stories for Dems.

Got my numbers from here: https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2016/may17.shtml and https://earlyvoting.texas-election.com/Elections/getEVDetails.do and clicking on June 30th.

 

 

Edited July 1, 2020 by StassneyHorn

[Bruh Man 3160]

Any Collin County posters have any thoughts on the lulu seikaly vs sean mccaffity runoff? Haven't done much research yet. Initially I was going to support the "Plano girl" Lulu but McCaffity seems to be pushing the progressive envelope a bit more. I think either candidate defeats Van Taylor in Nov.

[StassneyHorn 6776]

State Senator Lucio continues to be a dinosaur. South Texas, get him out

Full video of debate

 

[Guest Lobo]

Yeah, he's old.  But he's still the best option for that district.  And he is still beloved in the Valley.  I admit, I am biased.  

[Biff Tannen 46170]

23 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

TRIGGER WARNING NUMBERS

-Two days through the 2020 Democratic Runoff, there have been 207,854 cumulative votes. 110,952 from five largest counties. 139,482 in 10 largest. 157,212 from the 15 largest.

-In 2016 Democratic runoff through two days, I could not find the overall total on the SOS website, so fuck me. There were 33,102 from five largest counties, 48,034 in 10 largest, 53,011 from 15 largest and that's where the numbers end for counties. 

-Looks to be consistently 3x as many voters in the 5, 10, and 15 largest counties overall totals in 2020 compared to 2016.

Star Performers

• Denton County had 522 early voters through two days in 2016 runoff. Through two days in 2020, they have 4,616. 884% increase
• Colin County had 651 early voters through two days in 2016 runoff. Through two days in 2020, they have 4,528. 695% increase
• Williamson County had 1,033 early voters through two days in 2016 runoff. Through two days in 2020 they have 6,446. 624% increase
• Montgomery County had 376 early voters through two days in 2016 runoff. Through two days in 2020 they have 2,240. 596% increase
• Fort Bend County had 1,863 early voters through two days in 2016 runoff. Through two days in 2020 they have 6,798. 365% increase

To me these numbers represent energized, motivated people who quite possibly may stick with the party in the long run. Showing up the first two days of early voting in a primary runoff, either in person during a pandemic or doing the extra work to vote by mail, shows engagement. Obviously much different scenarios betweenn 2016 and 2020 but I think the reasoning holds. The suburbs are showing up in a big way. The Metroplex area (Denton and Colin), Austin suburbs (Wilco) Montgomery (getting those numbers in easily the most Aggy county lessens the deficit) and Fort Bend (the most popularly targeted "purpling" county and fastest growing) all tell good stories for Dems.

Got my numbers from here: https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2016/may17.shtml and https://earlyvoting.texas-election.com/Elections/getEVDetails.do and clicking on June 30th.

 

 

Cross posting because it makes more sense here.

Voted last night in Hyde Park and 2 of the 3 volunteers running the booths were under 30 and there were at least 6 under 30 people voting.  On a Tuesday.  During early voting.  For a runoff.  That gives me some hope.