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Texas Runoff Election - starts 6/29

StassneyHorn

By StassneyHorn
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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6776

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8 minutes ago, LurkingHorn said:

Wow! I havenā€™t been tracking the polls but is this an upset? Last I saw Hegar had raised way more than West.Ā 

Hegar has the recencyĀ bias of a viral campaign in 2018 and DSCC support. She could fundraise well (somewhat) but was way better than Royceā€™s. Royce has relationships in every corner of Texas after his years in the Senate and had every other candidates endorsement.

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6776

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Trump endorsed Tony Gonzales in TX-23 losing 53-47 with 72% in. Ted Cruz endorsed Raul Reyes. Reyes has 59k cash for general Election and Gina Ortiz Jones has 3+Ā million. This is Will Hurdā€™s seat.

Edited by StassneyHorn
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bolverk

bolverk 30344

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1 hour ago, MillerEP said:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/14/us/elections/results-texas-senate-democrat-primary-runoff-election.html

Ā 

Interesting map. Basically, West has Houston (barely), DFW (minus the burbs) and East Texas. Hegar has the the I-35 corridor, South and West Texas.

To me, she has surprising support in Latino dominated areas, plus most of the burbs (not surprising).

Edit: It's easier to see the significance of that pattern by clicking the "size of lead button" for that map.

Edited by bolverk
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gmr548

gmr548 16702

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Wow! I havenā€™t been tracking the polls but is this an upset? Last I saw Hegar had raised way more than West.Ā 
Hegar has the recencyĀ bias of a viral campaign in 2018 and DSCC support. She could fundraise well (somewhat) but was way better than Royceā€™s. Royce has relationships in every corner of Texas after his years in the Senate and had every other candidates endorsement.
She's polled ahead in the the two recent polls I'm aware of but with a massive number of undecideds. Like 40-50 percent. So maybe a mild upset if it holds, but the narrative has also been that West has the momentum. So not a monumental upset.
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gmr548

gmr548 16702

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Interesting map. Basically, West has Houston (barely), DFW (minus the burbs) and East Texas. Hegar has the the I-35 corridor, South and West Texas.
To me, she has surprising support in Latino dominated areas, plus most of the burbs (not surprising).
Edit: It's easier to see the significance of that pattern by clicking the "size of lead button" for that map.
Put simply, the more black voters, the better West does. If that's all it comes down to Hegar will win.

Hegar's early margins in Latino heavy areas like EP and south Texas is a bit surprising to me. She's definitely the white suburban/national Democratic candidate. South Texas didn't roll with Beto in his primary when he held that position and didn't go with Hegar theb first time either. I thought endorsements from Castro, CTR, Sema Hernandez, and local legislators might really help West in those areas. If she continues to bring in solid leads in EP and South Texas that would likely make the difference.
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bolverk

bolverk 30344

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5 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Hegar is beating West 3-1 in Throckmorton.Ā 

Literally 3 votes to 1, but they only have 20% in. They might get all the way to triple digits between them both.

It was a landslide in Reagan County where she won 100% of the county's 2 votes (100% reporting).

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6776

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7 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Put simply, the more black voters, the better West does. If that's all it comes down to Hegar will win.

Hegar's early margins in Latino heavy areas like EP and south Texas is a bit surprising to me. She's definitely the white suburban/national Democratic candidate. South Texas didn't roll with Beto in his primary when he held that position and didn't go with Hegar theb first time either. I thought endorsements from Castro, CTR, Sema Hernandez, and local legislators might really help West in those areas. If she continues to bring in solid leads in EP and South Texas that would likely make the difference.

Early vote in San Antonio was something like 65-35 as well in her favor.Ā  Not sure how much is military service driven

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gmr548

gmr548 16702

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Ā 
Good. I get being skeptical of her industry experience given that it's a cesspool, but you need someone who knows how the game is played. The ins and outs of what these companies do. If she wins in November (she won't, but she has a better shot) and becomes a shill for industry hold her accountable in the next primary.
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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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1 hour ago, Patrick Bateman said:

For those that need a quick bio on Garza...

Ā 

I donā€™t live in his area, but Iā€™m glad he won.Ā 
Ā 

Texas needs to lose as many drug war dinosaurs as possible. Ā Locking people up and prosecuting weed possession is MORONIC in the 21st century. Much bigger problems to worry about.

Edited by Voldemort86
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ChuckNorrisActionJeans

ChuckNorrisActionJeans 2692

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Huh I didn't realize that Pete Sessions's opponent is even worse than he is? How can that be??Ā  He's a fucking unindicted co-conspirator.Ā 

I know, I know, Republican party and all..but wonder if she tried to make any hay of that. Or perhaps it's a badge of honor to stand with the Trump corruption.

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SimonBolivar

SimonBolivar 11064

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15 minutes ago, ChuckNorrisActionJeans said:

Huh I didn't realize that Pete Sessions's opponent is even worse than he is? How can that be??Ā  He's a fucking unindicted co-conspirator.Ā 

I know, I know, Republican party and all..but wonder if she tried to make any hay of that. Or perhaps it's a badge of honor to stand with the Trump corruption.

He's probably just as bad. I just happen to personally know her and how big of an asshole she is and she spent a shit ton of her own money to lose to Sessions.

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Larry T. Spider

Larry T. Spider 1747

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1 hour ago, Gourmand said:

I live in TX 31 and we had a tough choice between Donna Imam and Christine Eady Mann. Congrats to Donna and I look forward to voting for her in the general.

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Ā 

Hi neighbor. I really hope that she can pull this off in November. She has worked her ass off to get this far.

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6776

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8 minutes ago, WBT said:

11>1

And the SOS now shows Reyes lost by 7Ā votes, which will probably lead to recounts and chasing down any military/provisional. Fuck outtaā€™Ā here with ā€œ11>1.ā€ Every single vote mattered.

Edited by StassneyHorn
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