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Flipping the Texas State House 2020: 17<10

StassneyHorn

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6540

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Was waiting for after the runoff to make this, but by popular demand of 2-4 posters I'm doing it now. Will update this list once runoffs are complete. If someone wants to trade some rep points for a sticky thread, have at it.

Why is flipping the Texas State House important? Republicans currently control the State House and State Senate and as the decade comes to a close the next legislative session will cover redistricting. Redistricting is an event where elected officials draw their new districts for the next ten years. State House seats, State Senate seats, State Board of Education seats, US House seats etc.. With no Democratic majority in the State House, Republicans will have total power of the process and have unchecked control of their self-preservation. They had this in 2010, but their gerrymander has broken big time with the suburbs turning their back on the party recently.

Is this realistically possible? Texas Democrats need to pick up nine seats in the Texas State House to gain a majority. This is doable. If everyone who voted for Beto in 2018 voted for Democratic candidates down ballot, they would have the majority now. Beto's statewide results extrapolated to the State House map was a 76-74 advantage. The Texas State Senate is a more uphill climb and only half the senators are facing an election this cycle. These are mostly comfortable seats although one should flip for certain in West Texas against Pete Flores, and Jane Nelson's could be interesting to watch in the Fort Worth area. They are currently down 19-12. Beto's 2018 results extrapolated to the State Senate map would have been a 15-16 deficit coming up 3000 votes short of a majority. Most of these state house seats will overlap with competitive US House seats,  so you get a better value giving 20 dollars to them instead of a Congressional candidate.

How can I figure out how to donate to?   https://secure.actblue.com/donate/bluewavetx2020   FlipTheTXHouse is a project from Texas Blue Action Dems which I believe started with the SW Austin chapter. ActBlue has a donation page where you can allocate to multiple candidates from the 17 listed as well as 10 more candidates. If you want to help volunteer their website shows opportunities across Texas in the Events section. Powered by People is Beto's PAC if you trust their judgement better, https://poweredxpeople.org/

Feel free to use this thread to discuss candidates, one-up or poor shame people by posting pictures of your contributions, sick brag about volunteering, show off hot sounding girls or guys you phonebanked/ textbanked with, or any available polling (probably wont see much of that).

17<10_Map_static_2020_full.jpg

 

 

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27594

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Some Republicans, however, acknowledge the party faces a genuine threat in longtime conservative bastions like Texas.

“The switch was flipped on in the November 2018 midterm elections. It was, 'Oh boy, this is real, we better get our act together,” said Brendan Steinhauser, a Republican strategist in Texas. “But I’m also not sure the party has figured it out.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/06/democrats-trump-rout-redistricting-349053

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YChang

YChang 3430

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12 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

“The switch was flipped on in the November 2018 midterm elections. It was, 'Oh boy, this is real, we better get our act together,” said Brendan Steinhauser, a Republican strategist in Texas. “But I’m also not sure the party has figured it out.”

Wonder what his playbook says on how to stop catering and enabling bigots (or worse). 

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27594

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HD 64 is mine. 5700 votes is a lot to make up. It's likely to be a better turn out, but with the virus can we be sure of that? 

I'm going to fucking be there and Angela Brewer will get some dollars from me, but she's got a hill to climb. Stucky is not the most objectionable. It's going to take a strong turnout and an overwhelming desire to punish Rs no matter what office to get some of these.

There's your counter to the sunshine, a nice gray cloud. I didn't think Beckley was going to win in 2018 in HD 65 either so what do I know?

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6540

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Sarah DeMerchant, Lorenzo Sanchez, and Akilah Bacy won their runoffs from the OG Map post. If you feel good, donate. 10 dollars at this level is more effective than giving to US House candidates or Lincoln Project.

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/bluewavetx2020

 

paystubs

 

3A06A2AC-B1A1-46DF-BD27-25DC04C9D348.jpeg

Edited by StassneyHorn
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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104624

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On 7/6/2020 at 9:22 AM, YChang said:

Wonder what his playbook says on how to stop catering and enabling bigots (or worse). 

The short version of the GOP strategist long-term nightmare: can't win with 'em, can't win without 'em.

Idiocy, racism, and hatred are the foundation of the GOP base.  They can't jettison them -- without them, they have no base.  But if they keep them, they can't expand beyond their base (which, while it will still get them a majority in some locations, that number of locations is ever-shrinking).  Knowing those two facts, what is the only path for the GOP to hold onto power?

That's right -- vote suppression, voter fraud, and any other dirty fucking trick they can think of.  They've lost on ideas, they've lost on talent.  So now, their only path forward is to just destroy the Republic.  If they can't have it, nobody can.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13414

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HD 138 (west houston) would seem to be strongly in play for the Dems. They only lost to a long term incumbent last election by 47 votes. He's retiring so the race would seem to up for grabs.

In the March primary for this seat, there were 9300 Dems voters and 9100 GOP voters. Obviously primary voter count has many factors but this district is about as evenly split as possible. About 1/3 white, and 1/2 Hispanic.

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6540

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Lorenzo Sanchez won the runoff but was severely depleted of money. He could use help if you got it.


Don’t wait for it to be 30 or 60 days out, donate today. Name recognition does not occur the last week or two before an election, it starts before. You heard of Beto and MJ Hegar months out, do the same with these candidates. They have a much larger say in your everyday life in TX and a bigger upballot effect than donating at a federal level.

This is a shameless plea to donate if you are able to.

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/bluewavetx2020

 

17<10_Map_static_2020-final.jpg
 

Edited by StassneyHorn
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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45495

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1 hour ago, StassneyHorn said:

Lorenzo Sanchez won the runoff but was severely depleted of money. He could use help if you got it.


Don’t wait for it to be 30 or 60 days out, donate today. Name recognition does not occur the last week or two before an election, it starts before. You heard of Beto and MJ Hegar months out, do the same with these candidates. They have a much larger say in your everyday life in TX and a bigger upballot effect than donating at a federal level.

This is a shameless plea to donate if you are able to.

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/bluewavetx2020

 

17<10_Map_static_2020-final.jpg
 

Done

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gmr548

gmr548 16513

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Also, if you got questions about the map, post them. It’s mostly Houston and the Metroplex for pickup spots.
if you want to drink some kool aid, here ya go. They forecasted 11 flipped seats last year and got 12. They’re now saying 17.
https://capitolinside.com/watch2020-housegen-aug3.html
Lol jfc. Nine seats is the worst case scenario, a vaccine before the election is more likely than the GOP retaining the House. That's not kool aid, that's straight trolling.
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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6540

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2 hours ago, gmr548 said:
3 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:
Also, if you got questions about the map, post them. It’s mostly Houston and the Metroplex for pickup spots.
if you want to drink some kool aid, here ya go. They forecasted 11 flipped seats last year and got 12. They’re now saying 17.
https://capitolinside.com/watch2020-housegen-aug3.html

Lol jfc. Nine seats is the worst case scenario, a vaccine before the election is more likely than the GOP retaining the House. That's not kool aid, that's straight trolling.

Making sure I’m reading this right. You think it’s definitely flipping with 9+, but not 17 (crazy high, the actual number of targeted seats from the thread)?

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27594

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Just sent some dollars to Angela Brewer again. 

Not hot. Don't care. I don't give a damn if she's uglier than a mud fence. Can she do a good job? Is she in possession of something resembling a clue?

And the most important question, can she win?

Shrug. I don't know, but it's a better chance than we've had. 

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6540

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Whoops AND yay. There should be a customize amount link on the mobile link where you can split your amount for any contribution. 2 dollars is enough to have a voter registration mailer sent to an individual that has been identified through moving data in a district, so yes 1 dollar does make a difference 

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gmr548

gmr548 16513

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Making sure I’m reading this right. You think it’s definitely flipping with 9+, but not 17 (crazy high, the actual number of targeted seats from the thread)?
No, those are direct quotes from that article. They called nine flips the worst case scenario and said a vaccine before November is more likely than the GOP retaining the house.

I have no idea what's going to happen, as data on these races is extremely limited. I do know that flipping the house with nine pickups is not the worst case scenario - that'd be a monumental achievement. Those statements go beyond bold predictions into straight fan fiction territory.
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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6540

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Elusive state house polling has been made available for HD108. Cattanach released her internal polling showing up 48-43. This was a seat thought of as one of the most very likely to flip, she lost by 220 votes last time. Seems like the bottom fell out for Trump there as well, Biden up 59-36 if it’s to be believed.
 

https://static.texastribune.org/media/files/d894da14c5fd393dcb3c0d44ffc9582b/hd108poll.pdf

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StassneyHorn

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More State House polling, albeit an internal. HD112, Brandy Chambers up two points, 48-46 over the incumbent Chen. Crazy spread from 2016 to now. HRC carried by one point, 2 years later Beto carried by 9, now Biden shows a 21 point lead.

TX_HD_112_Brandy_Chambers_interested_par

Reinforces my opinion that Texas was not a true 9 point difference in 2016 and HRC was just that detested outside the coasts. 20 point differential between HRC and Biden in 4 years.

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elfenix

elfenix 34171

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i've been surveyed twice this week, once by text and once phone, in HD 134.  text seemed to be trying out ads for ann johnson, phone seemed to be trying out ads for sarah davis.  although the phone poll was probably about the two wacky consumer knowledge questions tossed in so that both my and the interviewer thought it was a political poll but it was actually about toothpaste. double blind motherfucker!

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gmr548

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Reinforces my opinion that Texas was not a true 9 point difference in 2016 and HRC was just that detested outside the coasts. 20 point differential between HRC and Biden in 4 years.


Sure it was. Clinton ran ahead of the only other statewide Democrat and Trump ran behind the other statewide Republican.

The range of possible outcomes moves slighly leftward each cycle. Trump just helped Democrats skip a decade plus worth of demographic shifts and building organization/enthusiasm by realigning educated white voters, especially women, once he took office.

We saw the possible outcomes ranged from R+2 to R+ whatever eleventy billion number Abbott won by in 2018. That looks to have shifted to even or even D+ 1-2 on the left end of the range this go 'round.

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StassneyHorn

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Are any of you data guys/GIS guys able to make a map of Texas State Senate District 30 with the State House districts that overlap? I saw a tweet from Scott Braddock that says with Pat Fallon taking over TX-04, if a current Republican State House rep runs from that map for his State Senate seat, it could be open an opportunity to take over one of the 9 needed house seats just to take over a safe State Senate seat.

I would think 64,66,67, and 112 would overlap but I’ve been drinking and can’t find street level deets.

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gmr548

gmr548 16513

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Are any of you data guys/GIS guys able to make a map of Texas State Senate District 30 with the State House districts that overlap? I saw a tweet from Scott Braddock that says with Pat Fallon taking over TX-04, if a current Republican State House rep runs from that map for his State Senate seat, it could be open an opportunity to take over one of the 9 needed house seats just to take over a safe State Senate seat.

I would think 64,66,67, and 112 would overlap but I’ve been drinking and can’t find street level deets.

 

64, mostly yes with the liberal center of Denton included. 66, 67, and 112 no.

 

Sorry for shitty photo of monitor presentation, just pulled into Google Earth real quick.

 

Edit: I said mostly yes but actually looking at it, most of the population of 64 is along the 35 corridor, a lot of which is not included. So some overlap, probably like half tops.

 

24cc7c582b43b191771941e45f2395f4.jpg

 

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6540

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On 8/8/2020 at 6:17 PM, elfenix said:

i've been surveyed twice this week, once by text and once phone, in HD 134.  text seemed to be trying out ads for ann johnson, phone seemed to be trying out ads for sarah davis.  although the phone poll was probably about the two wacky consumer knowledge questions tossed in so that both my and the interviewer thought it was a political poll but it was actually about toothpaste. double blind motherfucker!

sounds like it was these guys. Congrats on being more important than other posters

HD134 polling Ann Johnson 44% (D) Sarah Davis 42 (R-Inc)

 

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gmr548

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If Biden is flirting with winning Klein/Jersey Village, he might fuck around and win the the state. And similarly, if Denocrats are actually only down four there, they could flip the house. That suburban belt north of Houston from Cypress to The Woodlands is as trump aggy is it gets in any major metro area.

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11668

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11 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

If Biden is flirting with winning Klein/Jersey Village, he might fuck around and win the the state. And similarly, if Denocrats are actually only down four there, they could flip the house. That suburban belt north of Houston from Cypress to The Woodlands is as trump aggy is it gets in any major metro area.

made me curious. the 2016 and 2018 precinct maps are still available. you can see margins really tightening from 2016 to 2018 in that area. if it does that movement again that would be great.  still though, it seems like biden has to win those areas outright instead of be close.  anything urban and within commute time of downtown has to be won to give him a statewide chance.

http://swamplot.com/where-trump-lost-harris-county-mapped/2016-11-14/

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/default/item/2018-Texas-midterm-elections-Harris-County-90400.php

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Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19331

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2 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

I’m not ready to start believing a flip is possible. But I’m getting there. Fuck what would be amazing. Granted Patrick will still fuck up anything he can, but redraw those fucking districts motherfucker. 

I figure if they lose their majority in the house, he and Hot Wheels will call a lame duck special session and try to ram through all kinds of egregious shit to reduce the power of the house. 

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 47884

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16 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I figure if they lose their majority in the house, he and Hot Wheels will call a lame duck special session and try to ram through all kinds of egregious shit to reduce the power of the house. 

Can you or anyone else provide an example of what kind of things that would include, and what that would look like and require to be made into law?

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pyrohornIII

pyrohornIII 4809

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On 8/9/2020 at 10:34 PM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I’m not really sure what a gop state rep candidate can really do except appeal to trump supporters publicly but privately convince never trumpeters to vote for them. 

 

3 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

I’m not ready to start believing a flip is possible. But I’m getting there. Fuck what would be amazing. Granted Patrick will still fuck up anything he can, but redraw those fucking districts motherfucker. 

Sydney has it right Eddie.  Census year, redistricting.   

 

Just as importantly we need to flip the Courts too!

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54002

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TEXAS — Shelley Luther, the Dallas salon owner who was jailed for opening her business in defiance of a COVID-19 order, on Saturday declared she intends to run for the Texas Senate.

What You Need To Know

Dallas salon owner Shelley Luther announces she intends to run for Texas Senate seat

 

Luther briefly jailed earlier in 2020 for violating virus shutdown order

 

Governor amended order, leading to her being freed early 

 

Will likely run when special election announced 

The Denton County resident was speaking at a rally when she made the announcement. The Texas Tribune reported Luther has been considering running for the seat currently occupied by Sen. Pat Fallon, R-Prosper.

Fallon has been picked to replace U.S. Rep John Ratcliffe, R-Heath, in Congress now that Ratcliffe is the director of national intelligence. While there is a Democratic nominee for Ratcliffe’s seat, Fallon is likely to win in the red district.

A special election for Texas Senate District 30 will be announced when Fallon vacates the seat.

Luther made headlines when on April 28 she opened her salon despite an order issued by Gov. Greg Abbott, prompting a district judge to order a temporary restraining order against her business.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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4 hours ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I figure if they lose their majority in the house, he and Hot Wheels will call a lame duck special session and try to ram through all kinds of egregious shit to reduce the power of the house. 

Doubt they could get away with it.

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6540

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HD-138 showing a 6pt lead for Democratic candidate Akilah Bacy. Went Clinton +1 in 2016, Beto +6 in 2018 ( Republican incumbent in State House won by 47 votes), he has now tucked tail and retired.

https://static.texastribune.org/media/files/071f4d7dc981fd63fced492600ed393a/TX HD-138 Akilah Bacy Interested Parties Memo.pdf

 

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