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Flipping the Texas State House 2020: 17<10

StassneyHorn

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Hank Scorpio

Hank Scorpio 17,731

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Went to a PAC fundraiser for a group that supports Texas Democrats in local and statewide elections and I am now drinking all of the fucking kool aid. We’re going to flip the house for sure and then the senate and then Biden will win Texas and then Abbott and Patrick and Paxton and all their cronies will be run out of office and there is nothing they can do to stop it! 
 

tenor.gif?itemid=4925611

 

 

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6,699

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Polling from TX Data for Progress divided their results from 34 State House districts Targeted by Democrats and Republicans. Page 3 of link below.

In those districts Biden led Trump 49-42, but Cornyn led Hegar 43-41. When asked about the State House candidate, Democratic candidate beat Republican candidate 45-42.


https://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2020/9/dfp_tx_survey_key_findings_sept4.pdf

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6,699

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National Democratic group to spend $6.2 million in effort to flip the Texas House

 

The super PAC, Forward Majority, is pouring the money into 18 races that will likely determine which party controls the lower chamber in January.
 

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/09/08/forward-majority-texas-house/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
 

 

 

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48,315

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Not sure if this is the best place, or voter suppression. That being said, I read up this morning on the redistricting potential. Can someone (Stassney, anyone) with more knowledge explain to me the process of redistricting? I know flipping the house is a big deal. But I also saw that the Governor has the power to veto, and if that happens, ballotpedia says the following:

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In Texas, both congressional and state legislative district boundaries are drawn by the Texas State Legislature. These lines are subject to veto by the governor.[34]

If the state legislature is unable to approve a state legislative redistricting plan, a backup commission must draw the lines (the backup commission is not involved in congressional redistricting). This backup commission, established in 1948, comprises the following members:[34]

  1. Lieutenant governor
  2. Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives
  3. Attorney general
  4. State comptroller
  5. Commissioner of the General Land Office

The Texas Constitution requires that state legislative districts be contiguous and "that they preserve whole counties when population mandates permit."[34]

So, first, can someone explain to me the process that is supposed to work between the Texas house and Texas senate? Second, what stops Abbot from vetoing it no matter what and then basically having that clownshow of pieces of shit just draw an even more absurd set of districts than what we already have? Because every one of those motherfuckers are varying pieces of fucking shit, from the worst Dan Patrick all the way down to right wing bootlicker Prescott Bush, who seems to have no problems sucking any indiscriminate dick he needs to get along. 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15,605

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11 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Not sure if this is the best place, or voter suppression. That being said, I read up this morning on the redistricting potential. Can someone (Stassney, anyone) with more knowledge explain to me the process of redistricting? I know flipping the house is a big deal. But I also saw that the Governor has the power to veto, and if that happens, ballotpedia says the following:

So, first, can someone explain to me the process that is supposed to work between the Texas house and Texas senate? Second, what stops Abbot from vetoing it no matter what and then basically having that clownshow of pieces of shit just draw an even more absurd set of districts than what we already have? Because every one of those motherfuckers are varying pieces of fucking shit, from the worst Dan Patrick all the way down to right wing bootlicker Prescott Bush, who seems to have no problems sucking any indiscriminate dick he needs to get along. 

Presumably, the Speaker would be a Democrat if the Democrats have a majority in the House.  So at least one of the five members of the commission would be a Democrat.

But it's all going to end up in court anyway.

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48,315

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Just now, Ghost of LL said:

Presumably, the Speaker would be a Democrat if the Democrats have a majority in the House.  So at least one of the five members of the commission would be a Democrat.

But it's all going to end up in court anyway.

Well, I forgot that important part. Still 1 out of 5 isn't great.

What do you mean it's going to end up in court anyway?

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6,699

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So HD-28 is the Fort Bend County race Beto got involved with for Eliz Markowitz after dropping out of his presidential run.Did a ton of block walking and the race was nationalized. Markowitz lost by a good margin but it had the highest participation rate for any special election Lege seat if I’m not mistaken. Best opportunity for pickup was always in the general for 2020, not the special.

Well the guy she lost to, perennial candidate slumlord Gary Gates, has evicted 104 people in 34 low income apartment complexes during the pandemic. To be fair, this pace is much slower than the year before and he claims to be offering a good bit of help. But that is a headline that can wreck a candidate if utilized.

Fort Bend Rep. Gary Gates evicted over 100 tenants during the pandemic

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Fort-Bend-Rep-Gary-Gates-evicted-over-100-15568074.php?utm_campaign=CMS Sharing Tools (Premium)&utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6,699

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House will flip, it’s got sustained attention from national groups this cycle

Democratic allies fighting to flip Texas House join forces for $1.1 million digital ad campaign

 

The campaign will benefit 11 candidates in some of the most pivotal races to take control of the lower chamber.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/09/17/democrat-texas-legislature-campaign/

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elfenix

elfenix 34,387

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chron endorsed sarah davis:

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/opinion/editorials/article/Editorial-We-recommend-Sarah-Davis-for-State-15585282.php

all of this would be great for someone representing kingwood.  completely ignores that the biggest issue next session is redistricting, and that sarah davis will almost certainly be voting with dan patrick/empower texas/eric opiela.

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Gerrymandering looks like attorney and Republican operative Eric Opiela emailing about “OHRVS,” short for “Optimal Hispanic Republican Voting Strength.”

Or, as he wrote in 2011 in a now infamous email, “a measure of how Hispanic, and Republican at the same time, we can make a particular census block.”

Got it? Making a census block look Hispanic enough to make potential legal challengers (which used to include the U.S. Justice Department) look away while still helping a GOP candidate win.

https://www.mysanantonio.com/opinion/columnists/josh_brodesky/article/Texas-gerrymandering-transparent-and-ugly-11273599.php

 

 

also, got surveyed again by text for HD134.  not random, same survey company as one of the priors, text asked that since i'd participated before would i participate again

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Tom

Tom 2,960

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Oddly I don't see a lot of Biden yard signs in my area, but I am seeing a shit ton of Jeff Whitfield signs.  As many or more than Cason all over my normally super red suburbs.  It's difficult to not notice even if you're not looking for it.  

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15,605

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On 9/28/2020 at 12:03 PM, StassneyHorn said:

No, fuck that. Until they slap it down or go against the Governor, don’t fiddle around.

That stupid-ass lawsuit isn't going anywhere.  Every judge in Travis County is a Dem.  And then it goes up to the Austin Court of Appeals, where four of the six justices are Dems.  They'll bottle it up so bad it'll never see the light of day.

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Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19,454

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12 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

That stupid-ass lawsuit isn't going anywhere.  Every judge in Travis County is a Dem.  And then it goes up to the Austin Court of Appeals, where four of the six justices are Dems.  They'll bottle it up so bad it'll never see the light of day.

They should offer to get to it right after Collin County gets to Ken Paxton's Securities Fraud case. 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15,605

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7 minutes ago, Bookman said:

It was filed at midnight, mandamus directly with the Texas Supreme Court.

http://www.search.txcourts.gov/Case.aspx?cn=20-0751&coa=cossup

Yeah--and they really don't like those.  A Realtor did exactly the same thing about some Covid thing earlier this year out of Harris County and they kicked it out.  I don't see why this will be any different.

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48,315

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6 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Sarah Davis, continuing to thread the needle with her house district in Houston, tells Paxton to fuck off.

 

Honestly, based on her record on the past she’s been a pretty good rep, from what I can tell. She’s got a very “liberal” set of commercials in Houston, taking about wearing masks and science and shit. She’s been very lgbq friendly. If she wasn’t a Republican I’d be fine voting for her. But I told her text bank to pound fucking sand a few weeks back. Sorry not sorry Sarah. 

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6,699

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4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Honestly, based on her record on the past she’s been a pretty good rep, from what I can tell. She’s got a very “liberal” set of commercials in Houston, taking about wearing masks and science and shit. She’s been very lgbq friendly. If she wasn’t a Republican I’d be fine voting for her. But I told her text bank to pound fucking sand a few weeks back. Sorry not sorry Sarah. 

Co-Sponsored SB4, the “papers please” bill if you need a reason to hate.

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6,699

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Allison Sawyer lost by 6.4% or 5678 votes in 2018. Ann Johnson is one of the 17 candidates looking to break through. Davis knows what matters in her district though and understands she has more medical professionals in her district than any part of the country in all likelihood (felt like I read that a few times). Hillary won by 16% in 2016 in the district.

 

 

17<10_Map_static_2020-final.jpg
 

 

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TexEx15

TexEx15 17,815

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On 8/9/2020 at 10:34 PM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I’m not really sure what a gop state rep candidate can really do except appeal to trump supporters publicly but privately convince never trumpeters to vote for them. 

They are definitely leery of attaching themselves to Trump.  Never did get an answer.

 

252BD803-42B1-418D-B199-C554D6A70AA0.jpeg

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kevwun

kevwun 15,943

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My aunt and uncle lives in Davis' district and they really like her and are still going to vote for her.  My aunt was complaining that they might lose a good rep.  If Sarah Davis was smart, she would have switched parties.

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Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19,454

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Karl Rove's PAC just dropped ~ $120K on Lucio Valdez, who is trying to take back HD 52 from James Talarico, who flipped the district in 2018. Q3 numbers for Valdez are $157,000 (Including Rove's money) Talarico brought in $147K in small dollar donations. This is one of the house districts in Wilco that covers Round Rock and part of Cedar Park and Leander. Valdez had 36 donors, Talarico had 1,014. 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17,812

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On 10/6/2020 at 12:55 PM, kevwun said:

My aunt and uncle lives in Davis' district and they really like her and are still going to vote for her.  My aunt was complaining that they might lose a good rep.  If Sarah Davis was smart, she would have switched parties.

Or just gone independent. Her district likes her (I'm in it). She would have won easily as independent.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,549

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recent 538 podcast had a commentator questioning why Biden was spending money in Texas when 1) Texas is an uphill battle for Biden,  2) even if Biden wins Texas, it would not have been the state that put Biden over the top.  In some respects, the Maine and NE 1-EC vote districts may be more important for Biden. 

The commentator was corrected in that flipping the Texas House was/is a key battle for the national Democratic party given redistricting next year. 

Besides they mentioned that Biden and the DNC basically have a problem of too much money and buying ads in Texas isn't taking away from any other state.

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gmr548

gmr548 16,641

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If Sarah Davis was smart, she would have switched parties.


This. It's why I don't/didn't lament the loss of Ed Emmett or any other supposedly solid Republican official or judge in 2018. No one's making you stay in the party of Trump. You're either loyal to it or too scared/stupid to read the tea leaves and make the change. Either option is disqualifying.
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