Jimbo 2023: Watch.The.Tape.

[closetojumping 62132]

8 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

The disappointing thing to me here is that they were able to keep him by simply matching.  I’d have liked to believe that there was a 20% nuisance fee over and above market to stay there. 

It's easier to stay and not change anything than pack up and head elsewhere.

[HtownHorn 14446]

1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

Whoever is proven and talented will be needing a metric fuckton of NIL money from CU to go there, or they'll be going there out of the sheer kindness of their hearts. A school, not Texas, went after Chappell at ATM and ATM matched for a ridiculous sum. That dude projects as a day one pick apparently.

The other school might be one of the most well-heeled, but the true ballers will be getting 6 figures. CU has zero NIL infrastructure. So either Deion has already found a benevolent Daddy Warbucks CU backer, or things are going to be harder than everyone else is thinking. I'm interested to see if Hunter follows him to CU because he could land $250k+ anywhere else.

I thought Chappell played well last year for them. Based on them losing almost every other CB on their roster he's not going to have a lot of competition for a starting spot. Shit, the 2 2023 CBs are already on the 2 deep.

[Pato del Muerto 52322]

3 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

It's easier to stay and not change anything than pack up and head elsewhere.

I get that.  But I was hoping that they wanted to leave and had to be moneywhipped into staying.  Case by case, I’m sure but since this is the first anecdote and it doesn’t reflect what I wish to be true, it’s disappointing. 

[Dr. Teeth 5813]

Owens just needs to be able to fill in the blank. “I am attending A&M because of the wonderful new OC hire, ______________.”  Less sketchy that way. 

[texifornia 56434]

 

[Tex-19 2869]

Nick Harris just put in a flip pick for Owens to ATM. Not real surprising. The bags are back

[Tex-19 2869]

Aaand Owens Fongd to atm

[texifornia 56434]

If you were in this situation: "the NIL structure is shit and we all hate the coach, but we need to throw a duffel bag at somebody or we won't have a football team anymore"

and you needed one big name recruit this cycle that would leap at the bag, it was going to be Owens.

[Yesh 904]

Longo is out, he is going to Wisconsin 

[Hank_Hill 18457]

Man dropping bags just to settle for the #2 back in the country? Couldn’t be us.

[Gil Bang 25865]

23 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

It's easier to stay and not change anything than pack up and head elsewhere.

Plus, Prairie View pussy

[Deej 76511]

At some point, aggy being over the top obvious with what they are doing is going to bite them in the ass. Saban was just setting it up last offseason. 

[closetojumping 62132]

21 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I get that.  But I was hoping that they wanted to leave and had to be moneywhipped into staying.  Case by case, I’m sure but since this is the first anecdote and it doesn’t reflect what I wish to be true, it’s disappointing. 

They have guys that are leaving after the semester is finished. Apparently Chappell simply isn't one of them.

[closetojumping 62132]

9 minutes ago, texifornia said:

If you were in this situation: "the NIL structure is shit and we all hate the coach, but we need to throw a duffel bag at somebody or we won't have a football team anymore"

and you needed one big name recruit this cycle that would leap at the bag, it was going to be Owens.

He's not the only guy they're about to be getting, it sounds like.

[fattyflattie 4636]

6 minutes ago, Deej said:

At some point, aggy being over the top obvious with what they are doing is going to bite them in the ass. Saban was just setting it up last offseason. 

Can’t happen soon enough.  I had a feeling they’d always end up with Owens, but it would be nice for them to get a #25 back instead of #2. 

[Tex-19 2869]

1 minute ago, closetojumping said:

He's not the only guy they're about to be getting, it sounds like.

Any guesses on others? Have seen some Tony Mitchell talk, obviously Hill. Hope MM isn't listening to them

[MH BEVO 1264]

2022 - DC leaves and the recruits keep coming.  
 

2023 - fire the OC and open up the flood gates. 

[Fud 9543]

1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

Whoever is proven and talented will be needing a metric fuckton of NIL money from CU to go there, or they'll be going there out of the sheer kindness of their hearts. A school, not Texas, went after Chappell at ATM and ATM matched for a ridiculous sum. That dude projects as a day one pick apparently.

The other school might be one of the most well-heeled, but the true ballers will be getting 6 figures. CU has zero NIL infrastructure. So either Deion has already found a benevolent Daddy Warbucks CU backer, or things are going to be harder than everyone else is thinking. I'm interested to see if Hunter follows him to CU because he could land $250k+ anywhere else.

I’ve seen rumors that a Colorado alumn billionaire is going to become involved now in NIL. I don’t have his name on hand, but I’m sure somewhere here knows if 

[closetojumping 62132]

2 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

Can’t happen soon enough.  I had a feeling they’d always end up with Owens, but it would be nice for them to get a #25 back instead of #2. 

I have been telling this board for months that they were highly likely to capitulate and pay Owens' dad what he was demanding. This is pure mercenary stuff. There will always be a few in each cycle. The money simply no longer jiggles, it folds. 

2 minutes ago, Tex-19 said:

Any guesses on others? Have seen some Tony Mitchell talk, obviously Hill. Hope MM isn't listening to them

MM would be a surprise to everyone. It isn't like he's walking into a setting in which he's not going to do very well with NIL. I don't think he's a pure mercenary. 

Who knows, though, really? Ritz Bitz has negotiated some sort of new stack for the portal, the staff, and to close the recruiting class. At least, that's what some chest beaters are saying. I'd say it pure mercenary stuff, but if the stack piles high enough for a given person, we can all be mercenaries, I guess. 

[closetojumping 62132]

4 minutes ago, Fud said:

I’ve seen rumors that a Colorado alumn billionaire is going to become involved now in NIL. I don’t have his name on hand, but I’m sure somewhere here knows if 

That's great and all, but I will believe it when I see it. I believe it with Oregon. I believe it with ATM. I've witnessed closely that there also billionaires, many, that will look into the abyss of NIL and realize that they do not currently have the stomach for it. If a man is worth $1B, $15M is 1.5% of his net worth. Give that away every year, and you're never getting a return for it, and you don't remain a billionaire for long. 

[fattyflattie 4636]

2 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I have been telling this board for months that they were highly likely to capitulate and pay Owens' dad what he was demanding. This is pure mercenary stuff. There will always be a few in each cycle. The money simply no longer jiggles, it folds. 

Yeah I know.  I’m not plugged in at all, and always kind of had that feeling. I just wish they’d take a legit step back with this class to take some of the polish off the last one.  Talent eventually overshadows shitty coaching.  

[Pato del Muerto 52322]

If you are worth 1B and you give away 15M, you are immediately no longer a billionaire. 

Edited December 7, 2022 by Pato del Muerto
Her der funny

[closetojumping 62132]

Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

If you are worth 1B and you give away 15M, you are immediately no longer a billionaire. 

In that flash of a moment, but it's all moot if you're getting a return of 4-6%. Or if you're on a beach somewhere, earning 20%.

[Tex-19 2869]

I can't fathom who the people are that are still giving so much money to Jimbo's cause. Dude would've been fired if not for his stupid contract.

It's a shame we can't see how much programs are spending bc it'd be funny to see for them

[pacman 7309]

 

 

[BornAndRaised 12223]

10 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I have been telling this board for months that they were highly likely to capitulate and pay Owens' dad what he was demanding. This is pure mercenary stuff. There will always be a few in each cycle. The money simply no longer jiggles, it folds. 

MM would be a surprise to everyone. It isn't like he's walking into a setting in which he's not going to do very well with NIL. I don't think he's a pure mercenary. 

Who knows, though, really? Ritz Bitz has negotiated some sort of new stack for the portal, the staff, and to close the recruiting class. At least, that's what some chest beaters are saying. I'd say it pure mercenary stuff, but if the stack piles high enough for a given person, we can all be mercenaries, I guess. 

I'll go ahead and pre-emptively ask for the bleeding vaginas. Does the new round of funding for them cause concern with our side for Hill? I'm of the opinion that if a kid decomitted once. that they likely dont end up with that team again, but anything can happen.

[Dr. Teeth 5813]

5 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

If you are worth 1B and you give away 15M, you are immediately no longer a billionaire. 

If you round down, it is zero billion. Financial ruin. Two commas club. 

[Pato del Muerto 52322]

In for a penny, in for a pound. 

[MonkeyDoughnut 10134]

16 minutes ago, MH BEVO said:

2022 - DC leaves and the recruits keep coming.  
 

2023 - fire the OC and open up the flood gates. 

This. If Owens commits before aggy announces an OC... enough said.

[texifornia 56434]

2 minutes ago, pacman said:

 

 

Wrong year

[FreeHorn 1307]

1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

Whoever is proven and talented will be needing a metric fuckton of NIL money from CU to go there, or they'll be going there out of the sheer kindness of their hearts. A school, not Texas, went after Chappell at ATM and ATM matched for a ridiculous sum. That dude projects as a day one pick apparently.

The other school might be one of the most well-heeled, but the true ballers will be getting 6 figures. CU has zero NIL infrastructure. So either Deion has already found a benevolent Daddy Warbucks CU backer, or things are going to be harder than everyone else is thinking. I'm interested to see if Hunter follows him to CU because he could land $250k+ anywhere else.

I’ll say this:

Two of my old kids have plans to transfer/attempt to transfer to Colorado. Both power five players. There are inner city parents who are absolutely enamored with Coach Prime. Parents seem to be more enamored than the kids.
 

The word is Hunter has already been taken care of and that was taken care of before Deion took the job. But like everybody has said plenty of times, when it gets down to crunch time let’s see if the money is actually there and how much money you’re willing to turn down. 
 

more than likely Colorado is about to take a lot of highly ranked high school prospects who flamed out and feel like a change in scenery is going to help them. People will see their high school rankings and swear Deion is putting together a talented squad. 

[Cairn Horn88 8148]

2 hours ago, Revolution512 said:

Is Deion in the business of recruiting shitty CBs? What the fuck would he want with Taylor?

Just not buying in on Deion...just yet...TBD.

[Tex-19 2869]

ATM is an interesting early case study on what matters to recruits in the NIL era. Coming off a 5-7 season in year 5, downward trajectory, guys seemingly unhappy there..yet they still land multiple 5 stars.  New era..

[texifornia 56434]

3 minutes ago, Tex-19 said:

ATM is an interesting early case study on what matters to recruits in the NIL era. Coming off a 5-7 season in year 5, downward trajectory, guys seemingly unhappy there..yet they still land multiple 5 stars.  New era..

This has nothing to do with the NIL era

[MichaelDicksonFanClub 2861]

[Sabalo 994]

8 hours ago, texifornia said:

 

6th reply on that thread has one of the best twitter handles I've seen.

 

 

[Fud 9543]

27 minutes ago, Fud said:

I’ve seen rumors that a Colorado alumn billionaire is going to become involved now in NIL. I don’t have his name on hand, but I’m sure somewhere here knows if 

Dug up his name; Christian anschutz

[closetojumping 62132]

3 minutes ago, BornAndRaised said:

I'll go ahead and pre-emptively ask for the bleeding vaginas. Does the new round of funding for them cause concern with our side for Hill? I'm of the opinion that if a kid decomitted once. that they likely dont end up with that team again, but anything can happen.

No clue. Watch Gerry, Bobby and the IT guys. GH and BB will flat out know what's happening and the other guys will mouthpiece it if they're busy or whatever. 

That considered, take yourself through the exercise and see where you end up:

I offer to pay you $500k/year for 3 years. You accept. You soon realize that I am Mr. Tarkanian and you don't wish to become Scott Jurgenson, so you rescind your acceptance of my offer. But I can't live with that, so I continue to come after you with guns blazing and promises being upped daily. What would be the number required in order for you to look past the possibility that I might straight-up murder you, or at least your career? 

 

[BurntOrange&White 39486]

19 minutes ago, FreeHorn said:

Two of my old kids have plans to transfer/attempt to transfer to Colorado

Blake?

[closetojumping 62132]

10 minutes ago, Fud said:

Dug up his name; Christian anschutz

His dad is worth over $10B, so they've got plenty of jack. They also have a fuckton of mouths to feed in the charity realm. The dad isn't affiliated with CU that I know of, so I am interested to see if the family is going to be cool with $10-$15M a year being funneled to 18-24 year old ballplayers while never seeing a dollar returned in monetary value.

[Sejjr 3246]

Surely aggy is smart enough to tell Owens to wait to announce until the OC is hired....right? 

 

Right?

[GlenFromTheMailRoom 1600]

 

11 minutes ago, Fud said:

Dug up his name; Christian anschutz

He's not the billionaire.  His dad is.  Worth $10bn but is a Kansas alum.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_Anschutz

[JesusSweatDuck 17780]

34 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

That's great and all, but I will believe it when I see it. I believe it with Oregon. I believe it with ATM. I've witnessed closely that there also billionaires, many, that will look into the abyss of NIL and realize that they do not currently have the stomach for it. If a man is worth $1B, $15M is 1.5% of his net worth. Give that away every year, and you're never getting a return for it, and you don't remain a billionaire for long. 

 

 

 

[closetojumping 62132]

Just now, Sejjr said:

Surely aggy is smart enough to tell Owens to wait to announce until the OC is hired....right? 

 

Right?

I'm sure he'll show up for their big recruiting/portal event this weekend as a "surprise visitor" and be overwhelmed with the experience immediately, thus committing almost on the spot. 

If they handle things true to form, that's what happens at least. I think Hill announced his undying commitment at the pool party about 15 minutes after arriving and sitting down with Ritz Bitz. 

[satyanash 14276]

24 minutes ago, Tex-19 said:

ATM is an interesting early case study on what matters to recruits in the NIL era. Coming off a 5-7 season in year 5, downward trajectory, guys seemingly unhappy there..yet they still land multiple 5 stars.  New era..

It's interesting to contrast this with how Herman's recruiting and support flat-out died on the vine after the disappointment of the 2019 season and the Ewers fiasco. NIL (on in this case, lots of plain ol' $$$) really does change everything.

Goes back to how A&M is willing to get dirty in ways other schools won't touch with a ten-foot pole.

Edited December 7, 2022 by satyanash

[Wulaw Horn 18963]

1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

One thing I am discovering in the world of NIL is that no one has money to burn. Maybe Oregon, I guess. We are in an ongoing street fight to keep up with everything and it is hard as hell. Does Barstool have $12-$15M per year to support Deion's program? That's where we're at in terms of the top tier. That is a lot of fucking money to just be handing over to guys in the portal, to keep guys out of the portal, and to 17-19 year old recruits. 

That’s 175k per player.  Not everyone is getting paid, obviously. That seems ambitious but doable. I wasn’t sure if the number didn’t get up to approaching 20M or something with the talk of what some of these guys are getting. That must be somewhat overblown. If you only paid guys on the 2 deep that’s 300k per dude. 250k for a run of the mill starter, 500k for an all conference type, 1M for an AA type, and 200k for key backups seems logical maybe, with depth guys and specialists getting 50k or so?  That’s about a 14 or 15M payroll if you figure a national title winning roster would probably have 2 or 3 AA types and 8 or so all conference types. 

[ArchManning 291]

20 minutes ago, Sejjr said:

Surely aggy is smart enough to tell Owens to wait to announce until the OC is hired....right? 

 

Right?

Nope, committing at 8 tonight. 

[immamac 42492]

4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That’s 175k per player.  Not everyone is getting paid, obviously. That seems ambitious but doable. I wasn’t sure if the number didn’t get up to approaching 20M or something with the talk of what some of these guys are getting. That must be somewhat overblown. If you only paid guys on the 2 deep that’s 300k per dude. 250k for a run of the mill starter, 500k for an all conference type, 1M for an AA type, and 200k for key backups seems logical maybe, with depth guys and specialists getting 50k or so?  That’s about a 14 or 15M payroll if you figure a national title winning roster would probably have 2 or 3 AA types and 8 or so all conference types. 

This is all such a dumb way to think about things. There is no way starters in college are making 250k in NIL without some type of commercial tie in.

As has been said ad nauseum there isn't a lot of people that want to spend insane amounts of money with no return. Even if there is significant emotional return there still has to be a way for their involvement with the player to actually drive something forward with purpose. 

Bijan has had a ton of NIL but also driven a significant amount of revenue associate with his name image and likeness. He didn't get paid cuz he was just good at football. Quinn Ewers has also done some really big promotions in and around the Austin area that generated incredible buzz that would have been hard to get in the Austin area without it being the highly touted starting QB of the longhorns. 

The BIG money NIL is always going to be commercially driven. The BAG money NIL and the xfer portal hostage situation stuff is going to play out real quick once people find out that it's never worth it without a commercial return. 

I have a strong suspicion that this is all going to normalize with baselines and commercial opportunities linked to either the fan base or the geographic area of the team. This year will be one of the last with just insanity in the portal. No ones $$ paid off last year, not a single player that xferred for $ made the splash equivalent to their rumored or actual $ in pure on field production. Which is why that kind of NIL will soon die. 

[closetojumping 62132]

6 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That’s 175k per player.  Not everyone is getting paid, obviously. That seems ambitious but doable. I wasn’t sure if the number didn’t get up to approaching 20M or something with the talk of what some of these guys are getting. That must be somewhat overblown. If you only paid guys on the 2 deep that’s 300k per dude. 250k for a run of the mill starter, 500k for an all conference type, 1M for an AA type, and 200k for key backups seems logical maybe, with depth guys and specialists getting 50k or so?  That’s about a 14 or 15M payroll if you figure a national title winning roster would probably have 2 or 3 AA types and 8 or so all conference types. 

Don't overcomplicate it and don't turn this into a pseudo-GM thread as you overcomplicate it, you actuarial lunatic. That said, I'll give you some color from the UT end if it helps:

Set a floor for every spot on every roster. For football, that's 85. No, not walk-ons. I said 85. So whether you are a back-up long snapper on scholarship or an AA WR, you are assured that floor. Call it $50k. This immediately prevents churn and completely dims down disunion within the ranks. Players are young but they aren't stupid. Virtually no one in the locker room is stewing if a Bijan Robinson is making $2million and they're making $50k.

Then, you have to account for premiums. Premiums in retention and premiums in acquisition. That is set at the market level. Corporate helps here because a lot of this can be superstar related. Austin's corporate density matters on this front specifically. Assume this is the remaining $5-$10M beyond the floor. This is where shit could get crazy if no one playing in this space gives a fuck about ROI or if corporate realizes "hey, these sponsorship deals are great, let's up the ante in the next cycle!"

 

[Wulaw Horn 18963]

1 minute ago, immamac said:

This is all such a dumb way to think about things. There is no way starters in college are making 250k in NIL without some type of commercial tie in.

As has been said ad nauseum there isn't a lot of people that want to spend insane amounts of money with no return. Even if there is significant emotional return there still has to be a way for their involvement with the player to actually drive something forward with purpose. 

Bijan has had a ton of NIL but also driven a significant amount of revenue associate with his name image and likeness. He didn't get paid cuz he was just good at football. Quinn Ewers has also done some really big promotions in and around the Austin area that generated incredible buzz that would have been hard to get in the Austin area without it being the highly touted starting QB of the longhorns. 

The BIG money NIL is always going to be commercially driven. The BAG money NIL and the xfer portal hostage situation stuff is going to play out real quick once people find out that it's never worth it without a commercial return. 

I have a strong suspicion that this is all going to normalize with baselines and commercial opportunities linked to either the fan base or the geographic area of the team. This year will be one of the last with just insanity in the portal. No ones $$ paid off last year, not a single player that xferred for $ made the splash equivalent to their rumored or actual $ in pure on field production. Which is why that kind of NIL will soon die. 

I actually agree with you and have been saying this for some time- that I think there’s not all that much money there for no return for the NiL donor.  I guess what I would say that says that might not be right is if you are rich enough and motivated enough you could look at it as the equivalent of owning a pro team on the cheap.