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Movie theaters officially dead

Michael Knight

By Michael Knight
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PilotsError

PilotsError 2286

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If you make a $50mm movie and then spend the industry standard of 20% on top of that marketing that.  Then you find out you don't have to spend 20% marketing that, but rather less than 5%, and maybe even save 5% on the actual production because you don't have to worry about it meeting all types of projection/audio requirements.  If they just back out the model and figure out how many viewers they need to buy the rental/permanent copy at which prices for which duration, and then maybe cut another deal where somebody gets to place an ad at the start and halfway thru while you piss/refill your wine...that's a whole different model they can make work toot-sweet.  But as usual, dying models need to be pissed on before they rise from the dead.  
Makes sense except for the mod movie ad. Fuck that.
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ztejas
ztejas

I fucked my girlfriend in high school plenty in the back of my car with the car turned off. Yes it gets hot as fuck. But you tend to not mind as much when you're... fucking.

mdleast
mdleast

EVERYONE'S fucking hyperbole ALL the god damned time?!?

mchookem
mchookem

somehow, this is the most depressing thread on surly to me right now... a ~hundred year old industry gone. so many dates, so many afternoon matinees... so many hot summer 'date nights' with husba

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Tom

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I went to the movies about once a month before all this.  I would do matinees around lunch time on weekends so it wouldn't be packed and I wouldn't have to sit next to someone, but even that wasn't guaranteed if it was a big enough movie release.  

I just don't buy theaters can't come back once this is all over.  Way too many people enjoy going to them, despite the opinions in this thread.  

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Stella Link

Stella Link 534

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21 minutes ago, Tom said:

I went to the movies about once a month before all this.  I would do matinees around lunch time on weekends so it wouldn't be packed and I wouldn't have to sit next to someone, but even that wasn't guaranteed if it was a big enough movie release.  

I just don't buy theaters can't come back once this is all over.  Way too many people enjoy going to them, despite the opinions in this thread.  

Love the theater experience (once you get to the theater).  Hate having to reserve your seat and pay in advance online now (and pay the extra fees).  But would rather see new films in the theater.

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Guest Lobo

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Divorced Dads and their kids still need something to do on Wednesday nights to avoid interacting.  So some theaters will survive.

I say that as a proud son of divorce who spent 4 hours each Wednesday night doing dinner and a movie with Dad from 1985-1991.  Had Alamo Drafthouse existed in Chicago in the late 80's...I think I would have had a much better childhood.  

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34 minutes ago, Continental Op said:

Movie theaters are clearly going to die because the #1 thing people are going to want to do once we have this COVID thing under wraps is sit around their fucking house some more! 

And yes, that urge to get out of the house for that first 6 months is certainly going to justify the excess square footage for a 20-year legacy lease, and sustain the moronic Cap Rate model of get in a 3 and get out a 7.  Works incredibly well for the funds behind them. 

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Sbbruin

Sbbruin 21829

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2 hours ago, Stella Link said:

Love the theater experience (once you get to the theater).  Hate having to reserve your seat and pay in advance online now (and pay the extra fees).  But would rather see new films in the theater.

I won't go to a movie where I can't reserve my seat in advance.

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Chet Steadman

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1 hour ago, Continental Op said:

Movie theaters are clearly going to die because the #1 thing people are going to want to do once we have this COVID thing under wraps is sit around their fucking house some more! 

Movie theater are clearly going to survive because the #1 thing people are going to want to do once we have this COVID thing under wraps is sit inside a fucking confined room with 250 strangers for three+ hours!

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Continental Op

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43 minutes ago, Lobo said:

And yes, that urge to get out of the house for that first 6 months is certainly going to justify the excess square footage for a 20-year legacy lease, and sustain the moronic Cap Rate model of get in a 3 and get out a 7.  Works incredibly well for the funds behind them. 

Yes we know.  Every post you make that doesn't contain a reference to an old tv show that is so labored that Bill Simmons would be embarrassed to make it is about your thoughts on commercial real estate. 

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Guest

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

I went to the movies about once a month before all this.  I would do matinees around lunch time on weekends so it wouldn't be packed and I wouldn't have to sit next to someone, but even that wasn't guaranteed if it was a big enough movie release.  

I just don't buy theaters can't come back once this is all over.  Way too many people enjoy going to them, despite the opinions in this thread.  

Yep.  the wife goes(went) to a movie at least every other week and can't wait for the theaters to re-open.  If reasonable access and prices exist, she'll fucking be there.

It's what some people enjoy as their "me-time."

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Continental Op

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13 minutes ago, Chet Steadman said:

Movie theater are clearly going to survive because the #1 thing people are going to want to do once we have this COVID thing under wraps is sit inside a fucking confined room with 250 strangers for three+ hours!

Do you think people aren't going to go back to doing exactly what they were doing once we have a vaccine and things are under control?  Hell, we can barely keep people from doing it right now. 

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Guest Lobo

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9 minutes ago, Continental Op said:

Yes we know.  Every post you make that doesn't contain a reference to an old tv show that is so labored that Bill Simmons would be embarrassed to make it is about your thoughts on commercial real estate. 

Well, that's just not fair.  I also shit completely on people that are idiotically aligned with moronic elected officials.  I'm very well-rounded ;)

But seriously...there's some interesting short-public REIT's on theaters and pad/end-cap bank sites.  The fun experience inside the building of a big-screen/big-audio movie...you've hit the nail on the head.  But if you want to discuss the realistic real estate/financial discussion of these places and how the model was already dying...then I'll shred the sarcasm and would love to engage in a dialogue with you.  I know my position is a "tad" binary.  I want dying business models that take up physical space in the world in which we live to hurry up and die so I can watch short funds put two rounds in the backs of their head so we either repurpose them or tear them down and teach our kids about trees.  I admit, it's a redundant message.  But how about you tell me what else we can do and maybe we can sort something out?  A  lot of these real estate models should know they're dead already and I want them dead and buried after Covid-19.  I am tired of plowing over nature being considered "conservatism"  

Sarcasm aside, I am all fucking ears.  

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8 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Well, that's just not fair.  I also shit completely on people that are idiotically aligned with moronic elected officials.  I'm very well-rounded ;)

But seriously...there's some interesting short-public REIT's on theaters and pad/end-cap bank sites.  The fun experience inside the building of a big-screen/big-audio movie...you've hit the nail on the head.  But if you want to discuss the realistic real estate/financial discussion of these places and how the model was already dying...then I'll shred the sarcasm and would love to engage in a dialogue with you.  I know my position is a "tad" binary.  I want dying business models that take up physical space in the world in which we live to hurry up and die so I can watch short funds put two rounds in the backs of their head so we either repurpose them or tear them down and teach our kids about trees.  I admit, it's a redundant message.  But how about you tell me what else we can do and maybe we can sort something out?  A  lot of these real estate models should know they're dead already and I want them dead and buried after Covid-19.  I am tired of plowing over nature being considered "conservatism"  

Sarcasm aside, I am all fucking ears.  

If it's a bad decision financially, then let them die.

 

and LOfuckingL  at the eco-reasons for your post.

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Guest Lobo

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I don't want them empty.  My posit is, when (not if) movie theaters die off (not all, but most)...what do we do with those structures?  We can't fill them all up with ACC or IDEA campuses.  I guess I';m wondering where you're not understanding my point is.  They already are built.  many of them won't be filled with packed theater audiences.  They'll go under financially.  So what do you suggest we do with them?  Some will come back, but most will not (most are already bleeding cash). There's 6,000 theaters in the U.S.  Not screens, but total theaters.  At least 3,000 won't be around in 24 months.  But their buildings will be.  I am all fucking ears.  Tell me what happens to them.  Honestly, what do we convert to?  

Or not either way, my point was we don't have a restructure/exit plan for these eyesores for when (NOT IF) they go under.  But people need places to give handjobs to strangers.  forget I brought anything up.  Everybody will get back to the movies soon and those buildings will continue to be inspiring to us all.  

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Michael Knight

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“Tenet” may still be able to salvage a summer release after all — at least outside of the United States. Christopher Nolan’s sci-fi thriller, from Warner Bros., will debut internationally starting on Aug. 26 before opening in select cities in the U.S. over Labor Day weekend on Sept. 3.

 

https://variety.com/2020/film/box-office/tenet-release-date-international-movie-theaters-1234717187/

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Lidig8r

Lidig8r 1870

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On 7/24/2020 at 8:36 PM, Lidig8r said:

So, I broke down and took up Cinemark on their "Private Party" screenings.

You rent a theater for $100. Can invite up to 20 friends.

We are seeing Jurassic Park this Sunday at 5:15.

Will be sneaking in some Woodford Reserve.

Will let you know how it goes.

Was really happy with the day. We only took 12 people. Cinemark was only serving popcorn, hot dogs and cokes are reduced rates. (snuck in some Dripping Springs vodka).

You choose between about 15 films. 

Spoke to the manager of that Cinemark. He was asking for recommendations on future films. (I don't think Blazing Saddles is going to make it.)

Would do again.

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Deej

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7 hours ago, Lobo said:

Divorced Dads and their kids still need something to do on Wednesday nights to avoid interacting.  So some theaters will survive.

I say that as a proud son of divorce who spent 4 hours each Wednesday night doing dinner and a movie with Dad from 1985-1991.  Had Alamo Drafthouse existed in Chicago in the late 80's...I think I would have had a much better childhood.  

 

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utee94

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3 hours ago, slorch said:

I don't think I've ever had anything different to eat at a theater since adulthood.

I love the full dining and booze options at places like Alamo Drafthouse.  I don't think I've had popcorn at a movie theater since adulthood. :)

 

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6 minutes ago, utee94 said:

I love the full dining and booze options at places like Alamo Drafthouse.  I don't think I've had popcorn at a movie theater since adulthood. :)

 

Enjoy your 2nd mortgage...

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freyguy

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On 7/28/2020 at 1:54 PM, Michael Knight said:

“Tenet” may still be able to salvage a summer release after all — at least outside of the United States. Christopher Nolan’s sci-fi thriller, from Warner Bros., will debut internationally starting on Aug. 26 before opening in select cities in the U.S. over Labor Day weekend on Sept. 3.

 

https://variety.com/2020/film/box-office/tenet-release-date-international-movie-theaters-1234717187/

well it's certainly nice to have goals...

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utee94

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1 hour ago, T’Boo Ted Marshall said:

I love the big talking pictures.  Only go to Alamo though because it is near the house, they have good food and booze and is normally not crowded.  

I like how, if you talk or text, they'll take your ass out.

(Even Ann Richards says so, and she's dead, so you better listen to her zombie ass)

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Hook1997

Hook1997 5351

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I love the movie theater experience.  It’s just not the same at home unless you have happen to have a actual theater room and even then I’m sure you have more distractions....   I miss previews too by streaming so much now and the guy who did the voice back in the day for all of them.

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Steamboat1874

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On 7/28/2020 at 10:46 PM, utee94 said:

I love the full dining and booze options at places like Alamo Drafthouse.  I don't think I've had popcorn at a movie theater since adulthood. :)

 

Never have understood this.

Why can't you just go to a movie for 2 hours and eat afterwards somewhere with good food?

Under normal times of course.

A movie will cost you $100 if you drink booze and eat some shitty food while there. 

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Guest Lobo

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Because the food at Alamo Drafthouse is good (for the most part).  A movie night out will still cost you $100 if you go out to eat afterwards.  

The whole industry vertical took a gamble ten years ago when home viewing/streaming options really started taking off.  The studios decided to reboot every other film, make garbage comic book movies, sequels, crap picture after crap picture.  And massive theater chains decided to take out every other row and put in recliners as if that was going to justify the shittastic pricing and lack of decent food/beverage options.  All the while overspending their over-leveraged asses on one bad real estate deal after another.  Even pre-Covid, their pro-formas had MORE people going to the theaters in ten years, not less.  That's like projecting out ten years from now that more people will use taxis, pay for parking garage spaces, or shop at Barnes & Noble.  Some Americans still like to go to big, chain theaters.  We get it.  It's still a decent and affordable form of entertainment.  The real estate model was never going to be sustainable anymore, and Covid-19 just sped that up.  

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utee94

utee94 15805

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1 hour ago, Steamboat1874 said:

Never have understood this.

Why can't you just go to a movie for 2 hours and eat afterwards somewhere with good food?

Under normal times of course.

A movie will cost you $100 if you drink booze and eat some shitty food while there. 

I like the experience, it's fun, and I don't find the food to be shitty, there are at least a couple dishes that I like.  

And I'm not overly worried about the price.

You can certainly choose not to do that, though.  Choice is a great thing in our society.

 

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Steamboat1874

Steamboat1874 4049

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57 minutes ago, utee94 said:

I like the experience, it's fun, and I don't find the food to be shitty, there are at least a couple dishes that I like.  

And I'm not overly worried about the price.

You can certainly choose not to do that, though.  Choice is a great thing in our society.

 

My other problem is the several times I have been to Alamo I get some guy right behind me with a large order of nachos and I have to listen to the fucking crunching for the first half of the movie.

I would rather they let people talk on their cell phone than serve them nachos.

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