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Movie theaters officially dead


Michael Knight

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somehow, this is the most depressing thread on surly to me right now...

a ~hundred year old industry gone. so many dates, so many afternoon matinees... so many hot summer 'date nights' with husband, hiding for a few hours in an ice cold theater.

sure, i'm not a comic book fan and skip most of those...but just this past year, ...we saw several excellent movies...

i know a lot of movies translate well to home theaters...but not being able to watch something like Star Wars or Raiders of the Lost Ark or the next Tarantino or Nolan flick or MI/Bond blockbuster on a giant screen in a dark theater with a sound system that vibrates your seat...i will miss that so much...or watching an independent art film nobody ever heard of over at the Arbor.

i remember my parents taking me to see the original Midway as a child. i remember a midnight showing of Aliens in high school that terrified us. i saw Return of the Jedi an embarrassing number of times in theater.

movies have always been one of my favorite things ever. and i love going to theaters.

we saw The Invisible Man with Elizabeth Moss just a few weeks before the shutdown. it was pretty good at least, since it appears that was the last movie we'll see in a theater.

new bars/restaurants will open to replace lost ones. nothing will replace movie theaters. 😞

Edited by mchookem
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Some of you seem to be rooting for the theaters to fail. I don't really understand why there is so much hate directed towards them.

Of course it costs more money to go to the theater and of course the food and drinks are marked up. Isn't that true with everything in life? Do you expect to attend a UT football game for the same price you pay at home? Do you expect to order a bottle of wine in a restaurant for the same price you pay in the grocery store?

I've always liked seeing movies in the theaters. When my wife and I were dating at UT and poor af, we would get the discount movie tickets from the counter in the basement of the Co-op and have a $12 date night. We probably did that 10-15 times a year. When we got older and had more money and could actually drink alcohol, we upgraded to Alamo Drafthouse but would still go fairly regularly. Currently, the best theater near us is a fairly new AMC, which I know gets a lot of hate on here, but it's actually a really nice theater with nice seats, nice screens and sound, and good beverage options.

I'm not much into superhero movies or Star Wars, which comprise a lot of the blockbusters these days, so we go less often. But I still get really excited about the release of a new Bond movie, Christopher Nolan film, Mission Impossible, or a one-off war movie like 1917. I have a nice home theater setup at home but it would suck if the only option was to watch these types of movies in my living room.

And as for the quality of direct-to-streaming movies, what are the best movies that were actually produced with this plan in mind? At least in the realm of big blockbuster action movies, the ones I've seen are definitely a caliber below the traditional box office film. I know TV series have improved significantly and I agree with the comments on things like Game of Thrones being movie quality production, but I also saw comments about The Expanse which I feel has embarrassingly poor CGI and acting at times. I love TV as well and appreciate the full range of streaming TV options, but it's just a different product that delivers a different form of entertainment.

I hope they figure this shit out but agree the outlook is bleak at this point. I would personally be pretty bummed to lose the option of seeing a great new release in the theaters.

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You are right, shit outside the house cost more than shit inside the house.  Except taking an actual shit.  My plumbing has issues.

We've been adamant supporters of Alamo Drafthouse and other indie theaters for decades.  Some of my wife's very first dates were special event screenings at Alamo downtown like the cast of "Melvin Goes to Dinner" and Michael Cera and "Ann" came to screen "Arrested Development" episodes.  Watched a bunch of UT games down there as well.  All this was 2000-03.  

I don't think anybody is rooting for them to fail.  Again, lots of folks on here that understand the distribution/finance/streaming model way better than I do.  I just pick on them because of the physical size of their mistakes.  People will judge and correct and monetize their business model mistakes.  To me though, it's another massive error that will be measured in the tens of thousands of acres and in the millions of square feet.  I hope they make it, but I am just so sick and tired of "developers" (code for assholes in visors driving Tahoes) paving over this country for shit that's not gonna last but a few more years.  Nothing against theaters in particular, big box retail, shopping malls, certain residential developments, etc.  You don't have to fall into conservationist camp, preservationist camp, or the 'fuck it all' camp.  There are pragmatic ways to do this with urban infill, repurposing, brownfield development, and towing a healthy line between conservation and preservation.  I pick on 'em all, and I work in commercial real estate part of my day.  The big pad/strip theaters are already built.  And they're already dying.  I just want to shift to a conversation about what be responsibly done with them to salvage some semblance of Earth for our children.  /endhippierant

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What's your point?

Yes, people with money can replicate a theater experience in their home pretty well.  But, it will never be on a screen as big, or with speakers as loud as in a theater.  And most people in the country can't afford to do that.  It would be nice if the theater experience still existed in the future.

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It will exist in the future.  It's not like they're going out of business as some "fuck you" to the middle/working class.  It's going to drop off significantly though because of a confluence of three events---cost effective streaming options (even for people without massive home theaters, just people with a screen a $9/month), the Covid-19 virus which some people still think isn't anything to worry about in close dark spaces, and horrible real estate decisions on the parts of the theater owners.  It's not rocket surgery.  

This isn't a complex cast study like Sears which fucks up supply chains and appliance servicing and auto repair shops in very corner of America, nevermind the in-house finance creditors it shook up.  This was just a (pardon the pun) FFWD button on what was happening in American entertainment and real estate anyway.  

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Talked to a friend that worked at Alamo HQ. He said the rumor is that Disney is doing this to buy the big theater chains and take over their leases for pennies on the dollar in 1-2 years. As a result, Disney will not have to cut theater chains in on their films’ profits and other studios will pay Disney for screens for their films. Mouse will get a cut of every blockbuster going forward with no real risk on their end. It’s brilliant actually.

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2 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

Talked to a friend that worked at Alamo HQ. He said the rumor is that Disney is doing this to buy the big theater chains and take over their leases for pennies on the dollar in 1-2 years. As a result, Disney will not have to cut theater chains in on their films’ profits and other studios will pay Disney for screens for their films. Mouse will get a cut of every blockbuster going forward with no real risk on their end. It’s brilliant actually.

Didn't this used to be the way things were, and it was eventually stopped by the government or out of economic issues?

I vaguely remember something about that from my history of film class, something about some of the studios and theater chains were under one company, and the actors were under contract to only those studios, etc.,

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Didn't this used to be the way things were, and it was eventually stopped by the government or out of economic issues?

I vaguely remember something about that from my history of film class, something about some of the studios and theater chains were under one company, and the actors were under contract to only those studios, etc.,

There was a law passed in the 30s that prevented studios from owning theaters. Paramount owned a bunch but only showed their films. Other studios couldn’t get screens and got that law passed. It was repealed last year paving the way for this move.

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Well there’s your new model then. Your amc or cinemark or what have you die, and the production companies buy them and show their own movies. Independent theater houses spring up/survive because they get to operate under the old model, where Disney and Comcast don’t want to invest in their own, plus any Indy production houses/distributors that don’t have their own storefront. 
 

if there’s a market for the theater experience, it will be met. This is America. 

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6 minutes ago, freyguy said:

They already have it.  It's called Disney+.  Much less overhead than a movie theater run by retards.

This.

Disney is *NOT* going to buy a movie theatre chain. The friend mentioned upthread at Alamo HQ seems to be enjoying some industry-specific gossip that is undoubtedly keeping those guys entertained and busy during this very horrible time for the industry.

Disney+ is the lone bright spot in a portfolio being decimated by covid-19. Lucky it launched in 2019, really.

Edited by Rougarou
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I don’t see how Disney buying up theater chains benefits anyone except Disney.

It could give them a monopoly on distribution and make it financially more difficult for non-Disney studios to deliver high quality blockbusters to movie goers. This seems somewhat similar to the current problems surrounding Apple’s app store or Amazon’s marketplace.

I would much rather live in a world of AMC, Cinemark, Regal, Alamo Drafthouse, Movie Tavern, etc. Individual companies competing for entertainment dollars is much better than one massive company shoving their version of the ideal movie experience down our throats.

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An interesting think-tank email expounded on some very interesting (read: real, not us messagboard dorks riffing opinions) commentary around Disney+ and Soul, etc.

One of the more interesting artifacts was the actual vertical/horizontal integration map that Walt Disney himself drew which highlights his original vision:

Con los datos de Disney + decidiremos qué productos hacer” | Televisión |  EL PAÍS

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If people wanted high minded stuff Criterion Channel would have a billion subscribers.  It doesn't.  If I had to guess I would say this will lead to more giant eye-popping tentpole spectacles as the big streaming services climb all over each other for subscribers.  I'd love to be wrong though.  

Edited by Continental Op
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We checked out an EVO theater last night for the hell of it. I walked away feeling pretty bad for the employees on up the chain. That place is huge...and definitely going to have a hard time surviving this mess. I’m reasonably sure that we were the only customers in the entire building between 6:30 - 8:15. Pretty depressing atmosphere in general. The experience reminded me of a scene in an old Charlton Heston flick called the Omega Man.

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If you ever had dreams of opening up a small arthouse theater, now might be a good time to start making plans. I bet you can pick up all the equipment for cheap soon. Problem would be finding real estate that doesn't have a ton of screens, but if the location could be divided up I bet the landlord would be willing to work with you. He just needs to find a church, climbing gym, whatever you call those trampoline places, etc to fill up the rest.

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AMC giving guidance this AM that they could run out of money by early 2021 at this pace without any changes.

One thing I think is shameful is when organizations pathetically pander for money (be it banks, airlines like they are also doing now, or movies) and pout their little lips, “we are gonna go out of business and all these amazing human beings will lose their jobs if we don’t prop us up on tax payer dollars”.

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^

Good point.  And wait until American taxpayers find out that the money is just going to pay their real estate overhead, which is just lining the pockets of wealthy, environmental-destroying CRE monsters.  It's not like they're gonna give some of that money to the ticket-taker stoned kid, Jim Anchower so he can to go college and re-tool his skill set.  It's to pay a NNN monthly nut.  That's it.  And more urinal cakes maybe.  I fucking hate airline bailouts, but at least it keeps people moving around the country that need to. 

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1 hour ago, Lobo said:

^

Good point.  And wait until American taxpayers find out that the money is just going to pay their real estate overhead, which is just lining the pockets of wealthy, environmental-destroying CRE monsters.  It's not like they're gonna give some of that money to the ticket-taker stoned kid, Jim Anchower so he can to go college and re-tool his skill set.  It's to pay a NNN monthly nut.  That's it.  And more urinal cakes maybe.  I fucking hate airline bailouts, but at least it keeps people moving around the country that need to. 

Somehow, someway, Cintas and their army of door-to-door salespeople will come out of this stronger.

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1 hour ago, DonkeyCigars said:

AMC giving guidance this AM that they could run out of money by early 2021 at this pace without any changes.

One thing I think is shameful is when organizations pathetically pander for money (be it banks, airlines like they are also doing now, or movies) and pout their little lips, “we are gonna go out of business and all these amazing human beings will lose their jobs if we don’t prop us up on tax payer dollars”.

Corporate welfare is yet another way to move money from the middle class to the upper class.

Companies run razor-tight financials with almost no cash on hand to deal with an emergency, which pumps up stock prices for the rich. Shit happens, companies get in trouble because they did that, and the rest of the country bails them out. Stonks continue to rise. 

These are the same people who tell the person making minimum wage that healthcare isn't important and that they should save up 6 months work of cash in case of an emergency.

One of the most perverse things about the entire economy. 

Edited by BradInATX
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Just now, BradInATX said:

Corporate welfare is yet another way to move money from the middle class to the upper class.

Companies run razor-tight financials with almost no cash on hand to deal with an emergency, which pumps up stock prices for the rich. Shit happens, companies get in trouble because they did that, and the rest of the country bails them out. Stonks continue to rise. 

These are the same people who tell the person making minimum wage that healthcare isn't important and that they should save up 6 months work of cash in case of an emergency.

Yes!

Cash management / Cash applications and how they play into the overall risk profile of an organization is shameful these days. CFO's, Finance, MBA curriculum, etc. have all failed us in the sense that the best practice these days is to essentially run as lean a ship with cash on hand as possible and in a black swan event (though I'd argue COVID-19 is not a true black swan event by definition), the government and tax payers will bail us out. It's awful.

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6 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Oh god the last movie I saw in the theater was The Rise of Skywalker. 

Imagine 10 years from now when all the theaters are gone.  And the new drinking game is "Your porn name is the last movie you saw at a theater plus the street you grew up on....

'The Rise of Skywalker's Post Oak.'  "

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4 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Imagine 10 years from now when all the theaters are gone.  And the new drinking game is "Your porn name is the last movie you saw at a theater plus the street you grew up on....

'The Rise of Skywalker's Post Oak.'  "

Skywalker Stonebridge.

That's awesome. 

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With all due respect to the developers on this board, I can't imagine looking at the Pacific Ocean in San Clemente (love that area btw) and thinking..."This coastline needs a massive building with no windows."  Fuck 'em.  Hope they go bankrupt.  It's okay if we leave part of the Earth alone for awhile.  

It reminds me of the loading dock areas at Brodie Oaks that overlook Barton Creek & the downtown skyline.  Who thinks of this shit?  

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