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Texas Rangers 2020

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shadow_operative2.0

shadow_operative2.0 15984

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Read this if you feel like a Ranger kick in the dick today. From Kiley McDaniel of ESPN+... 

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Texas Rangers

The most active team in baseball this week hired a new GM in Chris Young -- a former big league pitcher and most recently a VP in the commissioner's office, traded Lance Lynn to the White Sox for Dane Dunning and a prospect, and also traded for 1B Nate Lowe (plus a prospect and player to be named) for three prospects in a deal with the Tampa Bay Rays.

For context, the Rangers and Rockies have been my two designated "what are they doing?" teams in baseball for the last season-plus. The Rangers, in my view, need to do a full teardown and rebuild, and shift into asset collection mode, likely for a few years, before competing earnestly. Until recently, they hadn't committed to this at all, but also didn't make any real move toward competition, or cutting payroll, or changing up player evaluation and development in a meaningful way. I'd love it if they could pursue the rebuild without minimizing payroll to the basement like Baltimore is doing now and Houston did in the past, but I get that this often happens when that strategy is pursued. Plus, the Rangers just opened a new stadium, so there are some cash-flow issues. Texas doesn't have a good enough farm system, big league base of talent, or payroll space to compete for the playoffs without a full organizational makeover.

A week ago, the Rangers hired Young to work under Jon Daniels, who has run the Rangers' baseball operations department since 2005. Daniels doesn't need Young around to start making moves, but it made some sense to make the hire before expected offseason moves were made. The Lynn trade was a move in the right direction. As a veteran righty on a short but cheap contract who has morphed into a frontline starter, he absolutely should've been dealt last year, but recent reports indicate Lynn told Texas he'd opt out if traded last year to a team he didn't want to play for, limiting Texas' options. Dunning is a solid return, six cost-controlled years of a roughly league-average young starter with big league experience, though he comes with some risk given a spike in his value in 2020, a limited further upside, and a Tommy John surgery in the past.

The Lowe trade, on its face, seems to make sense. The lineup is littered with replacement-level players. Lowe easily upgrades one of those spots, and Tampa Bay needed to move him due to a glut at the position. Texas turned some prospects from the lower levels into immediate big league help that also has a chance to grow into a long-term keeper.

Take a step back, and this deal fits with the Dunning trade as a strategy, and one that, once again, doesn't make that much sense, relative to how successful rebuilds have been handled. As we've seen with the aggressive way that MLB teams approach non-tenders, the most common surprise non-tender (to fans) is the accomplished one-dimensional slugger with name recognition and counting stats. The Rangers are terrible now and will probably be terrible in 2022, and probably won't even be real contenders in 2023: this appears to be the early stages of stripping the big league team for parts. Lowe is 25 years old and has played 71 big league games. Both eyeball scouting and analytics point to him being a fringe regular or platoon guy right now, probably a one- to two-win player over a full season. Given his history, age, position, and that the best-run team in baseball can't find a spot for him to play amid the likes of Yandy Diaz, Mike Brosseau, Ji-Man Choi, and Yoshi Tsutugo, it's fair to say he's merely a solid player now and his upside isn't much above average, if at all.

If the Rangers get a solid outcome with Lowe from this trade, once they're looking solid in 2024, Lowe will be 28 and in his second year of arbitration, as a solid everyday first baseman, almost fitting recent high-profile non-tenders Eddie Rosario and Kyle Schwarber to a T. That's a little unfair since those non-tenders happened in a historically down free-agent market during a pandemic, but you can also take this in a sense of degrees: even if he's playing well, Lowe has little upside and little trade value. C.J. Cron has occupied this space in the recent past and is a free agent right now at age 30, likely signing for a couple million guaranteed. He probably won't be as good as Lowe the next couple years, but he'll be reasonably close and cost only money; he's the basic substitute to compare to Lowe.

I like Lowe as a player, but giving up real value for a first baseman during the down times in a rebuild is prioritizing what should be a luxury buy, the easiest spot to fill for cheap every offseason, at the end of the positional spectrum, where solid players are often discarded. Looking back at the Dunning trade, another solid young player and a move that's lower variance/upside but also comes with some risk, suggests the Rangers aren't prioritizing risk/variance/upside as a virtue thus far in a rebuild, which it has to be at some point.

The best example of the risk/upside type is in the centerpiece that Tampa Bay received in the Lowe trade, LF Heriberto Hernandez. He's in the lower levels of the minors and may be a Schwarber-type left field/first base/emergency catcher type, but he has bonkers surface numbers and underlying stats to match. The other two players the Rays got are interesting as well: a hit-first, speedy up-the-middle prospect (Osleivis Basabe) and another corner type with real hit/power tools (Alexander Ovalles). The Rangers have some depth in the lower minors, but these are the types you hold when at this point in the competitive cycle. You may point out that Hernandez and Ovalles may just turn into Lowe-types, but the Rangers need the high-variance lottery-ticket types of this skill set more than the lower- variance ones.

To come out of this on the other side and for the rebuild to work, the Rangers need to acquire, in whatever way, a bunch of well-above-average big leaguers. The Tigers' rebuild is going OK because Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene, Casey Mize and Matt Manning all have this potential and all are on the fast track to the big leagues. All of the other young players they have are nice, but with none of those aforementioned four, their rebuild would be in serious jeopardy on multiple fronts. Texas is still in the early stages of their transition, but they'll have to be OK with taking on some real risk -- they've leaned to safety with college bats in their recent top draft picks, as well -- to get the reward essential to producing top-tier big league talent. These are just a few moves, and by no means a final stance on how they will approach the next few years, but this indicates not much has changed in regard to their main issue: boldly making moves toward future contention.

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Pato del Muerto
Pato del Muerto

Davis will lose 10-15 hr this season just from not facing Texas 20 times. 

idigTexas
idigTexas

Hmmmm, it's a damn shame when a phrase takes on new meaning to the point that using it sincerely causes confusion.

LTtxfan
LTtxfan

HaHaHaHa....  

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DougO

DougO 5249

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Fits the pattern of the JD injury discount guy, which sometimes pays off. Cheap and low current market, but has shown talent with a high ceiling. Reading mediocre at best defender and weak arm, which also fits the JD pattern. So maybe the new guy hasn't quite kicked in yet.

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Elmer_Fudd

Elmer_Fudd 22231

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1 hour ago, DougO said:

Fits the pattern of the JD injury discount guy, which sometimes pays off. Cheap and low current market, but has shown talent with a high ceiling. Reading mediocre at best defender and weak arm, which also fits the JD pattern. So maybe the new guy hasn't quite kicked in yet.

Also appears to strikeout a bunch.  

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shadow_operative2.0

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Another move. 

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The Texas Rangers are trading right-handed reliever Rafael Montero to the Seattle Mariners in exchange for a pitching prospect and a player to be named later, sources told ESPN's Jeff Passan on Tuesday.

Montero, 30, appeared in 17 games this past season for Texas, compiling a 4.08 ERA to go with 8 saves.

The Rangers will receive 17-year-old Jose Corniell, a right-handed pitcher whom Seattle gave a $630,000 bonus in the last international signing period. The 6-3, 170-pound Corniell has a fastball that reaches the mid-90s and could bump even higher as his body fills out.

Montero suffered a complete tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow in March 2018 while with the New York Mets. He underwent Tommy John surgery and missed that season.

In six major league seasons, Montero is 8-17 with 242 strikeouts, a 4.93 ERA and 8 saves.

 

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DougO

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Rotoworld:

Rangers acquired RHP Ryder Ryan from the Mets to complete the Todd Frazier trade.

Ryan was acquired from the Indians in the Jay Bruce trade back in 2017 and now he's on the move again. The 25-year-old reliever held a 3.05 ERA and 40/23 K/BB ratio over 44 1/3 innings at the Double-A level in 2019.

Dec 18, 2020, 12:27 PM ET
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shadow_operative2.0

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Brief write-up on him. 

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A decision on Japanese right-hander Kohei Arihara is due by Saturday at 5 p.m. ET, after he was posted on Nov. 26, and MLB Network insider Ken Rosenthal reports that he has selected the Rangers.

The Rangers had a 5.32 starters' ERA in 2020, which ranked seventh-worst in the Majors. The team traded its best starter, Lance Lynn, to the White Sox on Dec. 8.

By the MLB-NPB posting system, there is a 30-day window for all 30 Major League clubs to negotiate with the 28-year-old starter, who has spent his professional career with Nippon Professional Baseball’s Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters.

If Arihara does indeed sign with a Major League club, that team will pay a posting fee to the Fighters. If he does not sign, he’ll remain with the Fighters and cannot be posted again until next offseason.

Arihara had a 3.46 ERA in 20 games for the Fighters in 2020, notching 106 strikeouts in 132 2/3 innings. He struck out 161 batters in 164 1/3 innings in 2019, when he posted a 2.46 ERA in 24 games.

Arihara throws both a four-seamer and two-seamer, according to scouting reports from Sports Info Solutions. Those are in the low 90s, and his best strikeout pitch is his splitter. He also mixes in a slider, cutter, changeup and curveball, using the latter three primarily against lefties.

The Padres, Red Sox and Rangers had been reported as finalists for Arihara, according to the San Diego Union Tribune and Japanese media reports.

 

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Elmer_Fudd

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Rotation this upcoming season could be bad.  An unknown from Japan, that you have no idea how he'll turn out, 2 guys that are nothing special and will a have 4-5+ ERA range in Gibson and Lyles, and a promising, but not much experience guy in Dunning.  And who knows with the other spot, maybe Allard?  Gotta be someone coming off a major injury still unsigned.

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shadow_operative2.0

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Longenhagen’s take on Arihara is about what you would expect under the circumstances — inexpensive second division back-end starter without a real good fastball but whose large number of pitches and ability to command them allows him to have success. There’s not much in the way of upside — he might be a 2-3 win guy if everything goes right rather than a 1-2 win guy — but the financial commitment is small and he fills a role.

https://www.lonestarball.com/2020/12/30/22206454/fangraphs-on-kohei-arihara-signing

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cafe society

cafe society 2871

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On 12/12/2020 at 1:00 PM, DougO said:

Fits the pattern of the JD injury discount guy, which sometimes pays off. Cheap and low current market, but has shown talent with a high ceiling. Reading mediocre at best defender and weak arm, which also fits the JD pattern. So maybe the new guy hasn't quite kicked in yet.

 

On 12/12/2020 at 2:05 PM, Elmer_Fudd said:

Also appears to strikeout a bunch.  

From Keith Law in The Athletic:  I wrote more about Dahl on my list of the best free agents among players not tendered contracts earlier this month, but the short version is that I think Dahl’s a solid defender with good contact and on-base skills against right-handers, capable enough to play against lefties, and a pretty rough history of injuries.

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shadow_operative2.0

shadow_operative2.0 15984

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Yeah, I don’t live close to any of his pizza joints either. 

Here’s a scouting report on Acker after Oak drafted him. There’s also video of his no-no against LSU last March. 

https://www.athleticsnation.com/2020/6/11/21288754/mlb-draft-2020-oakland-as-dane-acker-127-overall-pick

Edited by shadow_operative2.0
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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4625

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Rangers finally making some moves that make sense.  They have a good group of young players to try to start building with.  No sure-fire cornerstone pieces but guys who are young enough and have high enough upside to generate some hope:

C Heim/Huff

1B Lowe

2B Solak

SS Falefa

3B Jung (Odor may get time until he is ready)

CF Taveras

DH Calhoun

Dahl is a decent add that might turn into a trade chip.  Gallo is a trade chip if he won’t sign a team friendly extension.

 

The Gibson and Lyles signings were puzzling as hell but those are 2 other tradable players.  Folty could be like Dahl.  Hopefully Allard and Dunning pan out.  They have enough viable young BP arms to root thru while they rebuild.

Gonna be ugly for at least the next 2 years but at least they are finally headed in the right direction.

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Hairy Biped

Hairy Biped 586

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On 2/6/2021 at 3:09 PM, shadow_operative2.0 said:

Yeah, I don’t live close to any of his pizza joints either. 

Here’s a scouting report on Acker after Oak drafted him. There’s also video of his no-no against LSU last March. 

https://www.athleticsnation.com/2020/6/11/21288754/mlb-draft-2020-oakland-as-dane-acker-127-overall-pick

Dane's dad Casey is a life long friend of mine.  I'm not really a Rangers guy, but I'm happy he might get a chance to play closer to home.

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DougO

DougO 5249

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I hate the trade of Elvis. He gets too much hate here and will be tough to replace at short, much less as a presence in the organization. And I didn't realize Davis is older than Elvis, and taking a chunk of salary. The throw-in players will have to be absolute home runs for this to work. I don't trust Falefa as a full time short, I don't care what he looked like last season. This trade doesn't look like getting something to really build with for a player that has done so much for the team and still has productivity left, and traded to a division rival.

Davis hasn't been that good in recent years, except against the Rangers, and now he doesn't even have that. LOL

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