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Jeter giving the gift of disease is one of those MLB traditions. 

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Am i the only one that feels like clicking on the astros thread is a wormhole to texags?

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

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I have to say, I like this year. The short season. The neutral site playoffs, the no rest days in the DS and CS. Its different. And it's not all bad different. The only thing I have really hated is the regular season extra innings man on second. 

There are some things that should be carried over. The 8 team playoff is more exciting but expansion is needed to make it permanent.  4 divisions of 5 teams in each league would work, so add some teams.  To add value to home field advantage, play the entire WC and DS in the higher seeds stadium.  No days off. For CS and WS, keep the traditional formats.  Keep the traditional extra innings format. To shorten games, keep the 3 batter rule for pitchers, and enforce the damn pitch clock finally, but give it more teeth. If you don't throw a pitch in time, it's an automatic ball. The batter only gets one time out during the at bat, so he should use it sparingly. If he used it up, if the pitcher throws a strike while the batter is walking around its a strike. 

I do really like the neutral site playoffs, but not only is it an impossibility in the future, I also dont want it for the future. 

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htown85

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6 hours ago, FondrenRoad said:

I have to say, I like this year. The short season. The neutral site playoffs, the no rest days in the DS and CS. Its different. And it's not all bad different. The only thing I have really hated is the regular season extra innings man on second. 

There are some things that should be carried over. The 8 team playoff is more exciting but expansion is needed to make it permanent.  4 divisions of 5 teams in each league would work, so add some teams.  To add value to home field advantage, play the entire WC and DS in the higher seeds stadium.  No days off. For CS and WS, keep the traditional formats.  Keep the traditional extra innings format. To shorten games, keep the 3 batter rule for pitchers, and enforce the damn pitch clock finally, but give it more teeth. If you don't throw a pitch in time, it's an automatic ball. The batter only gets one time out during the at bat, so he should use it sparingly. If he used it up, if the pitcher throws a strike while the batter is walking around its a strike. 

I do really like the neutral site playoffs, but not only is it an impossibility in the future, I also dont want it for the future. 

I love the 3 batter rule but that was going to happen with or without COVID.  100p agree on pitch clock, and stop granting batters timeouts (only 1 per AB).

 

I think they should keep the no off days in the DS. Game 1 is a night game, game 2 is a day game to allow travel that night, game 3 is a night game, game 4 a day game for travel, game 5 a night game.

 

Only 1 off day in the CS and WS after game 5.

 

Neutral site is kind of fun but I don’t see how it practically makes sense in the future. Just leave that for the WBC.


Hate the expanded postseason field so we disagree there.

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MC Fresh Breath

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Keith Law’s Top 40 free agents of the MLB offseason

Keith Law 6h ago 180 
MLB is entering an offseason like no other in its history, coming off a successfully completed mini-season — unlike 1994, where the long cold winter was spawned by labor strife — but where the economic outlooks for the industry and the United States are both extremely uncertain, to be kind. Owners are shedding personnel to save a few pennies, savings that seem miserly in this climate and often involve letting go of hundreds of years of institutional knowledge. Will those same owners be willing to spend on free agents the way they have in previous winters? Will some free agents choose one-year deals in the hopes that they’ll find greater demand or looser purse strings next offseason?

I’ve ranked the top 40 players who we know will be available as free agents this winter, including one player from Korea’s KBO whose team has indicated that they will post him for MLB teams to sign. This list doesn’t include potential non-tenders, or other international free agents whose status isn’t yet clear. My ranking considers what these players are likely to produce going forward, considering their past production, scouting reports, durability, and other variables that any general manager might weigh in deciding how much to pay the player, or how many years to offer.

All ages are seasonal ages for 2021 (that is, the player’s age as of June 30, 2021).

1. George Springer, OF, age 31
In a year without a Bryce Harper or Manny Machado (or, as it turns out, Mookie Betts) in free agency, Springer looks like the best long-term bet among position players to perform like a star now and still hold value well into his 30s. He’s the best athlete in the class and has a strong history of performance at the plate, with the second-best wOBA and wRC+ among free-agent hitters this year, behind only 40-year-old Nelson Cruz. Springer has strong plate discipline, posting the lowest strikeout rate of his career in the truncated 2020 season, and has shown he can hit velocity as well as offspeed stuff, with five of his 14 homers this year coming on fastballs 95 mph or more. He’s regularly among the league leaders in exit velocity and barrels per PA or per batted-ball event, slipping slightly this past year after finishing in the top 20 in those categories in the full season of 2019. He was a little more pull-conscious in 2020, although the season was so short it could easily just be noise.

He’s an above-average defender in center field with the speed and instincts to stay up the middle for several more years, at the least, and has the potential to move to right field and be above-average there if and when he has to move out of center. While not much of a base stealer, he’s still a good enough runner to add a little value on the bases and to give the signing team confidence that he’ll have value on defense for the life of the contract. The defensive and positional value plus his history of power and strong on-base percentages make him the best free agent on the market, and he’s one of the only free agents this year who has the kind of 7-win upside that could make him an MVP candidate and an immediate difference-maker to a contender.

Some teams may wonder about Astros hitters who were there in 2017, during the sign-stealing period, but Springer’s best year came after that. He set career highs in AVG/OBP/SLG, wOBA, wRC+ and WAR in 2019, and he struck out at one of the lowest rates of his career in 2020, so there should be no concerns about whether his performance is sustainable. He’s the player most deserving of a contract of six years or longer in this market, a potential 25-win player over a deal of that length even with some offensive decline in his mid-30s.

2. J.T. Realmuto, C, age 30
Realmuto might be the most coveted free agent on the market because he plays a position of permanent scarcity and plays it quite well, improving substantially on defense since he first reached the majors. Realmuto was 19 when the Marlins took him in the third round in 2010 out of an Oklahoma high school, betting on the quarterback’s athleticism; the team converted him from shortstop to catcher right after he signed. He was still a below-average framer and receiver when he reached the majors, but he has worked to become above-average at the former and average at the latter, and his bat ranks among the best for current big-league catchers: Since the start of 2018, he leads all catchers in Batting Runs and is third in wOBA and wRC+ (minimum 500 PA), and he’s third in homers behind Yasmani Grandal and Gary Sánchez. That said, he’s already in his 30s, with over 5,600 innings caught in the majors and 3,000 more in the minors, so any long-term projections for him have to consider the risk of injury or the odds that he has to rest more often, putting him behind Springer in these rankings. I’d still give him four years on the assumption that he’ll catch around 480-500 games in that span, especially if the DH lets him stay in the lineup while catching a little less.

3. Trevor Bauer, RHP, age 30
Bauer was one of the best starting pitchers in baseball in 2020, the second time in three seasons he has put up a performance like that, sandwiched around a 2019 season when he walked more batters and gave up more home runs.

Bauer has always tinkered with his pitches and pitch mix, telling a reporter back in the spring of 2012 that he had nine distinct pitches, including a “reverse slider” that bore a strong resemblance to a screwball; Statcast credits him with six for 2020, including a scarcely used changeup. He ramped up the use of his cutter this year and it was his best pitch, with hitters missing more than 42 percent of the time they swung at it. What’s so exceptional about the pitch is that it spins as quickly as his slider and knuckle-curve, but comes in at about 5 mph faster than the slider does, so he can keep hitters off balance with just those two options. What Bauer has lacked in his career is consistency, even in something as simple as throwing strikes; his two best years were his only seasons where he threw even 63 percent of his pitches for strikes, which is about the major-league average. He’s also been homer-prone at various points in his career, but not in 2020 or his peak 2018 season.

He’s a polarizing figure even to the clubs that have employed him, which is one reason he has changed addresses a few times. Arizona couldn’t get rid of him fast enough, and while he fared much better in Cleveland, he was traded last summer right after an incident where he threw a ball into center field in a fit of frustration. That’s not an argument against signing him, but it’s going to be in general managers’ minds as they consider how to value him on a possible long-term deal. Bauer has shown twice now that he has the potential to be the best pitcher on a championship staff, but not over a period of multiple seasons. A long-term deal of four or five years, assuming he deviates from his long-stated preference for one-year contracts, in a regular market would probably get him close to No. 1 starter money.

4. Marcus Stroman, RHP, age 30
Stroman is the only other pitcher in this year’s class with a strong claim to No. 1 starter potential besides Bauer, but while Bauer had one of his best seasons in 2020, Stroman hasn’t pitched since 2019 after tearing a calf muscle in July and then opting out of the 2020 season due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

When healthy, Stroman is a dominant groundball pitcher with solid-average command and control, keeping the ball in the park by keeping it out of the air. He’s an actual sinker/slider guy — not a four-seamer/slider guy who gets called a sinker/slider guy despite, you know, not sinking the ball — with a cutter and changeup to round out his mix, a big shift from the four-seamer/curveball guy he was at Duke. Against right-handers, he’s actually more slider/sinker, getting swings and misses with the former, while against lefties he’s more sinker/cutter/slider, as the cut fastball misses more left-handed bats and works in lieu of a changeup. He’s had three full seasons of 30+ starts in the majors, missing most of 2015 after tearing his ACL (returning in unheard-of time to pitch in the postseason that year) and parts of 2018 with shoulder fatigue and a blister, as well as the calf injury that affected his 2020 season. So while he should be looking at four- or five-year offers, I might project him for something more like 100 starts in 4 years rather than 120 or more. He’s still a clear $20-million-a-year pitcher and should be the second-highest-paid starter this winter after Bauer.

5. Marcell Ozuna, OF, age 30
Ozuna’s one-year, $18-million deal went extremely well for Atlanta. Ozuna had the best season of his career by a huge margin, and it should pay off for him this winter in a market where there aren’t a ton of pure-power bats available. Some of his performance in 2020 isn’t sustainable — a .391 BABIP, for example — but the way he improved on his walk and power rates from his very strong 2019 figures should give teams more confidence that he can be a high-walk, high-power guy who has value even when his batting average dips. He also hit the ball harder than he had in previous years, although his swing doesn’t look substantially different other than maybe keeping his weight back slightly longer. I’m buying Ozuna’s bat, and see his true level somewhere in the middle of 2019’s hard-luck BABIP and 2020’s inflated one, which would make him a 5-win player even with his below-average defense in left.

6. Marcus Semien, SS, age 30
Semien was one of the most valuable players in the American League in 2019 — by FanGraphs’ WAR, he leads all free agents in this class since the start of that season — but struggled in the short 2020 season and might have sowed some doubt in would-be suitors heading into this winter. All of his indicators for 2020 went the wrong way: He hit the ball far less hard than the previous year, popped the ball up far more often, and was atrocious against all non-fastballs. While he has improved on defense since he first reached the majors, he has been a below-average shortstop by Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric for the last three seasons, ranking 33rd among qualified shortstops in 2020. His 2019 season, when he hit 33 homers and posted a wRC+ over 100 for the first time in his career, looks like a screaming outlier, but he’s almost certainly a better player than he showed in less than half of a full season in 2020. His 2016-18 production still speaks to his being capable of playing shortstop regularly for several more years.

7. DJ LeMahieu, 2B, age 32
A baseball paradox in human form, LeMahieu has been a completely different hitter since leaving the Rockies, hitting for far more power since his departure (one homer every 24 PA) than he did while there (one homer every 76 PA). Yankee Stadium is a large part of what has changed; he has hit three-fourths of his homers at home since joining the Yankees, and 18 of those 27 were to right field, often barely clearing the fence. He was above the major-league median in barrel rates in 2019 but slipped below in 2020. LeMahieu’s secret is that he puts the ball on the ground often and seldom strikes out. He had the third-highest groundball rate in the majors in 2020, and the second-lowest strikeout rate. That could work for a long time, especially with solid-average defense at second, although no buyer should bank on his repeating that power outside of Yankee Stadium.

8. Didi Gregorius, SS, age 31
Gregorius’ one-year, $14-million deal was one of the biggest bargains of last offseason and one of the best moves of Matt Klentak’s tenure as Phillies’ GM, as the shortstop bounced all the way back from an injury-shortened 2019 when he posted a career-worst OBP. His 2020 line looks a lot like his 2018 line, and he showed he could hit for power outside of Yankee Stadium while playing at least solid-average defense at short. I wrote last October that Gregorius should get $20 million per year on a four-year deal, and had any team given him that at the time, they’d be happy with the investment. The one downside for Gregorius this winter is that there are several other shortstop options available, so while his platform year is far more indicative of his present level of ability, competition might keep his salary below that mark.

9. Kolten Wong, 2B, age 30
The Cardinals made a shocking choice by declining Wong’s $12.5 million option for 2021, making him a free agent just one year after he posted a 3.7 fWAR/5.2 bWAR, which puts him among the 10 most valuable free agents by total value in 2019-20. He’s a high-contact, low-exit velocity hitter who gets on base at an above-median clip for a second baseman, and after some ups and downs under Mike Matheny — who, for whatever reason, never seemed to warm to Wong as a regular — has hit .285/.362/.403 in the year-plus since Matheny was fired, with plus defense since he reached the majors. He was second among all second basemen in Outs Above Average in 2019, and led in both dRS and UZR. Wong does have a platoon split, but he’s become capable enough against lefties that he doesn’t have to sit against them. He doesn’t have much power, and shouldn’t really try to pull the ball too much, as he’s better when he uses the whole field and goes for contact. He’s an above-average regular right now, an asset to almost any contender, and should be for the length of a four- or five-year deal.

10. Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, age 31
JBJ has always teased with the potential of his bat, but at some point he made the decision to sell out for more power — probably in his breakout 2016 season — and it has made him a worse overall hitter since. If you want a reason for optimism, though, in 2020 he flattened his swing and used the whole field better than he has in any other big-league season, going the other way at the highest rate of his career. That’s who he needs to be, because he doesn’t make the kind of high-quality contact that you usually see on true power hitters. He’s still an elite defender in center, and if he keeps putting the ball in play (he had a career-low strikeout rate in 2020) and worries less about putting it in the seats, he has All-Star, 4-win upside.

11. Michael Brantley, OF, age 34
Brantley’s career was interrupted by injuries that limited him to 101 games total in 2016-17, but around that, he’s been very consistent: In the five years when he was healthy since 2013, he posted OBPs between .364 and .385 and slugging percentages between .468 and .506. He’s a disciplined hitter who rarely swings and misses in the zone, less than 10 percent of the time in five straight years until he got to 10.2 percent in 2020, and he doesn’t chase pitches out of the zone very often. He’s capable in left field but not much more than that. Brantley played 140 games in each of the last two regular seasons prior to 2020, although given his age it would probably make sense to project that to taper off. His bat is productive enough to make him an above-average regular in left for a couple more years, and a two-year deal like the one the Astros gave him would make sense for both team and player.


Justin Turner. (Gary A. Vasquez / USA Today)
12. Justin Turner, 3B, age 36
Turner just keeps on hitting, making high-quality contact, rarely striking out and walking at an above-average rate, despite his age. He’s consistently in the top quartile of major-league hitters in average exit velocity and Barrel rates, even in 2020, a year when he was both injured and playing at age 35. His defense has certainly slipped to the point where he’s below-average at third base, and if you give him three years you’re probably doing so in the expectation that he’ll move to another position or end up splitting time before the deal is up. He’s still productive enough as a hitter to profile even at other positions and generate 3+ WAR in a full season. Age, and the injuries that can come with it, seem to be the only things that can stop him — though it’s also possible there will be consequences for Turner’s violation of the league’s COVID-19 protocols, some of which might impact his playing time in 2021.

13. James Paxton, LHP, age 32
Paxton’s 2020 marked a disastrous ending to his brief time in New York, as he made just five ineffective starts after back surgery and before his season ended due to a strained flexor tendon in his left arm. He also missed time in 2019 with a sore knee, and he has previously missed time with a similar strain in his elbow and other muscle strains. When he’s healthy, though, it’s premium stuff, and there’s no lefty on the market to compare to him. He used to hit 100 mph somewhat regularly and still tops out around 98. He works with a cutter in the upper 80s that misses a ton of bats — when hitters swung at his cutter in 2019-20, they missed it 43 percent of the time — and his barely used changeup is even more effective: He has thrown 77 since the start of 2019, giving up 0 hits, with batters whiffing on 63 percent of the ones at which they swung (20 of 32). He walks a few too many batters and the way his arm works he’s never going to have great command, so he has ace stuff but pitches more like a No. 2 starter. He might be a candidate for a one-year, high-dollar deal to prove his elbow is healthy; if it is, he’s a four-win starter.

14. Andrelton Simmons, SS, age 31
Simmons is the best defensive player in baseball, and one of the best defensive players in MLB history, but he comes to free agency with a weaker offensive resume than he would have had two years ago. By TotalZone, the historical defensive metric Baseball-Reference uses to cover players from before play-by-play data was available, he’s eighth all-time among shortstops, and everyone ahead of him has a playing time lead of at least four full seasons. He is the all-time leader in Defensive Runs Saved at shortstop by a hilarious margin, and is second in Ultimate Zone Rating by just 3 runs, a deficit he’ll eliminate in 2021.

Simmons had his two best years at the plate in 2017-18, with league-average offense coupled with his immaculate defense, and was off to a similar start in 2019 when he suffered a grade 3 ankle sprain and went on the injured list. After he returned, he hit just .233/.297/.319, going to the IL once more in August for the ankle, losing power and BABIP. He rolled the same ankle in the first week of 2020 and didn’t hit for any power at all when he returned, opting out for the last week of the season. Since that injury, his exit velocity has been just 86.2 mph, two full mph below where it was in 2018, and he has had just two Barrels in that span in over 350 PA after he had four Barrels in April 2019 alone. That’s a long way of saying maybe he’s a below-average hitter again, or maybe once the ankle heals completely he’ll be closer to the hitter he was before he got hurt, which made him a 5-7 win player. He could be this year’s Didi Gregorius, an everyday shortstop who gets a one-year deal to prove he’s over an injury that affected his performance at the plate.

15. Masahiro Tanaka, RHP, age 32
Tanaka has been pitching with a partial tear in his elbow for seven years now, yet since he came to the United States he’s been both durable and effective, making 30-plus starts in three of the last four full seasons and 10 more starts in 2020. His splitter is no longer the out pitch it once was, however, with his slider taking its place as his primary swing-and-miss offering — and his primary pitch, period, as he threw more sliders than any other single pitch in every season from 2017 to 2020. His four-seamer has become something of a liability; it still misses bats, but he gives up more homers on it than any other pitch even though he throws the slider and splitter more. He has a formula that has worked for him, going heavy on those two off-speed pitches and mixing in an occasional sinker, and throwing a ton of strikes, with no walk rate over 5.5 percent in any of his MLB seasons. He might not be a great bet for a long-term deal given his age and that wonky elbow, but I’d pay him to be a league-average starter in 2021.

16. Kevin Gausman, RHP, age 30
Gausman was so screwed up while he was in Baltimore, including the inexplicable decision by the coaching staff to move him to the extreme third-base side of the rubber, that it seemed likely he’d never justify being the fourth overall pick in the draft back in 2012. He got out of Baltimore and went to a good pitchers’ park in 2020, signing a one-year deal with the Giants that resulted in the best strikeout and walk rates and lowest FIP of his career. I think it’s real and sustainable. He has always had the plus velocity and plus split-change to be an effective big-league pitcher, and this year the Giants largely just let him pitch instead of trying to make him fit some predetermined template. His splitter was filthy, with hitters missing nearly half the time they swung at it, and he threw it more than ever. He could still use a better breaking pitch, as his slider doesn’t miss bats in the zone and he’s really never had much of a slider or curveball. But with those two pitches and the command and control he showed last year, he could be a good fourth starter for almost any club.

17. Ha-Seong Kim, SS, age 25
Kim might be the only major free agent to come to Major League Baseball from either the KBO League or Nippon Professional Baseball this winter, and he gets to come as a true free agent because he turned 25 in October, thus avoiding the restrictions placed on so-called “amateur” international free agents based solely on their ages. He has been one of the better hitters in Korea’s major league for several years now, ranking seventh in OBP and 11th in slugging percentage in 2020 (as of Oct. 18). He has split time between shortstop and third base for Kiwoom the last two years, and scouts think he’s not a lock to be able to stay at short in MLB, possibly moving to third or second or just becoming a utility infielder who moves between all three. At the plate, he has good hand-eye coordination and some power, but he gets long and his front side goes very soft in his swing, so hitting MLB velocity consistently could be a real problem. The possibility of shortstop with some power could get him offers as a regular, but I think a more suitable projection would have him as a super-utility guy who gets 400+ at-bats.

18. José Quintana, LHP, age 32
Quintana has the most WAR of any pitcher born in Colombia, and the second-most of any player born there after Edgar Rentería, which is pretty good for a player who was released in the minors by the Mets, signed by the Yankees but later left off their 40-man roster (by the Yankees), making him a free agent who could sign with the White Sox. He hasn’t been quite the same since the trade that sent him to the Cubs, but he has been a league-average starter for them and his stuff held steady the last few years, including the four appearances he made in 2020 around a cut finger and a lat strain. Because he doesn’t rely on big velocity, he could probably hold this level of effectiveness for several more years as long as he keeps his walk rate down below about 8 percent. That would still make him a good fourth starter worth a multi-year deal.

19. Taijuan Walker, RHP, age 28
Walker had a big comeback season in 2020, his first healthy campaign since 2017, taking the ball 11 times and posting peripheral stats in line with his pre-Tommy John surgery self, even though he’s down about 1.5 mph from those days. Walker works with four pitches, none of which is really an out pitch, although his curveball could still be that for him. Showing he could stay healthy and hold his stuff even in this short season was a positive step; now he needs to show that he can pitch with the above-average or better control he’ll need (and that he flashes) to pitch effectively with a bucket of grade-50 or -55 pitches. He’s a back-end starter now but has some upside potential to be a league-average guy if his control ticks up or he uses the curveball more often or he regains a little velocity with more time away from surgery. Because of his youth and athleticism, he’ll probably find a lot of interest from teams hoping to score a bargain on a two-year deal.


Nelson Cruz. (Peter Aiken /  USA Today)
20. Nelson Cruz, DH, age 40
Cruz just keeps right on hitting, with the two best seasons of his career by rate stats coming in 2019 and 2020, when he was at an age when most hitters have retired, voluntarily or by ravages of Father Time. He has ranked in the top 10 in the American League in slugging percentage in six of the last seven seasons, and in the top 10 in OBP four times in the same span, including top-five finishes in the last two years. His average exit velocity did slip last year, and by any other measure he hit the ball less hard, less often than he did in his career year of 2019. He’s a DH only, of course, and carries the risk of injuries and of sudden decline, but on a one-year deal he’s probably a good bet for a 3-win season after accounting for the drop in his batted-ball data in 2020.

21. Liam Hendriks, RHP, age 32
Hendriks’ transition from a control-artist starter with average velocity to a power reliever has been remarkable. He has gained about 5 mph on his fastball over the last seven years, and since the start of 2019 has been the most valuable reliever in baseball by fWAR. His approach is simple — he starts off with fastballs, leaning on it when he’s behind in the count, and goes to either his slider or curve, both of which are put-away pitches, more often when he’s ahead. Pitching is easy when you throw strikes and can hit 98 mph. He’s a little vulnerable against lefties, and of course long-term deals for relievers have an awful track record, but Hendriks is the best available this winter and I’d give him a high-dollar two-year deal.

22. Mike Minor, LHP, age 33
Minor’s successful return to the rotation after two years lost to injury and a year working in relief didn’t last, as he lost 2 mph off his fastball in 2020 and about 1 mph off his slider and changeup. As a result, he gave up much more hard contact than he had since he returned from injury. He actually threw harder with men on base and with more spin on the four-seamer, yet had far worse results because of location and bad luck. He hasn’t previously had trouble pitching from the stretch, so at least some of what went wrong for him in 2020 was flukish. If you think his velocity dip was temporary, or are willing to bet on him still pitching effectively with the lower velocity, he could be a fourth starter or even get to league-average and would be worth a one- or two-year flier.

23. Jake Odorizzi, RHP, age 31
Odorizzi’s 2020 season was a washout, as he started late after suffering an intercostal muscle strain, was hit by a comebacker in his third start and made one more start four weeks later before leaving that one early with a blister. It was unfortunate for him as he headed into free agency, although he should see some solid interest based on his previous work; in his first two years in Minnesota, 2018 and 2019, he threw 323 1/3 innings of above-average ball, averaging barely over five innings a start. Not one of his pitches is plus, but he has found some success with four-seamers up above the midpoint of the zone. Without a real knockout offering, though, he has to pitch at the top end of his command and control range, which he did in 2019. He’s so athletic and his delivery is so easy that it’s perplexing that he hasn’t done it more often; he almost certainly is what he is at this point, though, and should see one-year offers in the mid-teens.

24. José Iglesias, SS, age 31
Iglesias is still a plus defender at short who can hit for a solid but empty batting average, and I think he has done this long enough that his outlier 2020 season — buoyed almost entirely by a .407 BABIP — isn’t going to change anyone’s mind about what sort of player he is. To his credit, he made harder contact this past season than he had in any previous year, but that BABIP isn’t sustainable for any hitter and his walk and power rates remain extremely low. (His one-year home run spike in 2019 came thanks to Cincinnati’s homer-friendly park.) He’s a solid everyday option at shortstop thanks to his glove and high contact rates, maybe a two-win player if he holds on to some of that extra hard contact, but if you’re a contender you’re probably looking for a little bit more.

25. Joc Pederson, OF, age 29
Pederson’s 2020 was a big dropoff from the level he’d established in 2018-19, although even in those two peak years, the Dodgers were careful to protect him from left-handed pitching, giving him just 107 PA against southpaws in those seasons combined. He has power against righties and can play solid-average defense in either outfield corner, but he’s about to turn 29 and has a career line against lefties of .191/.266/.310 with no signs of improvement in that department in recent years, making him a valuable platoon player but not a regular.

26. Tommy La Stella, IF, age 32
La Stella was a classic Twerpy McSlapperson sort of ballplayer until he got to the Angels in 2019, when he went back to the approach and stance he had in college. He started to pull the ball more and regained the loft in his swing that he’d had in his first few years in the majors, tapping into power he’d never shown before. He’s a dead-pull guy now, and despite the low strikeout rate he has some clear vulnerabilities, like velocity up and off-speed stuff down and away, as well as the platoon split you’d expect from a left-handed batter. He’s a below-average defender at second or third but playable at either spot. Even with the big breakout in the last two seasons, he’s more of a backup than a regular, or perhaps the strong side of a platoon solution at second or third base.

27. Jurickson Profar, 2B/OF, age 28
Profar was the best prospect in baseball before losing two years to a shoulder injury, and he has never really been the same hitter since because he doesn’t make the same sort of quality contact. He was better in 2020, notably against fastballs, and struck out at the lowest rate of his career, producing his best batting average and OBP to date. He has very good bat control and doesn’t swing and miss much, even when he goes after stuff out of the zone, although he is relatively vulnerable to off-speed stuff below his knees. He can play second, but not especially well, and is above-average in left field, where his bat doesn’t quite profile. Because he’s a switch-hitter with some on-base skills, he’s more valuable than just a bench piece, and probably deserves everyday at-bats on a club that can make use of his limited defensive versatility.

28. Robbie Ray, LHP, age 30
Ray has always been a little wild, but 2020 was another level entirely, as he literally walked a man an inning for Arizona and “improved” to 14 walks in 20 innings after a trade-deadline move to Toronto. His strike percentage actually jumped quite a bit, from 55 percent with the D-Backs to 60.5 percent with the Jays, not quite where it was before 2020 but closer. His stuff itself was intact — he regained the little bit of velocity he’d lost in 2019 — but he barely used his changeup against right-handers, and they didn’t swing and miss at any of the 27 he threw to them. If he gets to even a 62 percent strike rate and ramps up the use of his changeup against righties, he could still be a useful starter, maybe even approaching league average, for a team willing to stomach that risk.

29. Shane Greene, RHP, age 32
Greene is a great example of the failed-starter-turned-good-reliever phenomenon, and in 2020 he added (or re-added) a changeup that he used almost exclusively against lefties, with enough success that he should probably use it more in 2021. He has always had plus control, and if that changeup helps him close his platoon split he should have a few more years as a good setup man ahead of him, even if he lacks the swing-and-miss pitch for the highest-leverage work.

30. Carlos Santana, 1B, age 35
Santana posted a .212 BABIP in 2020, driving his batting average below .200. Some of that was bad luck, but he also wasn’t hitting the ball as hard as often as he did in previous years, so this could be a sign that the end is nigh. This year, Santana posted his lowest average exit velocity since Statcast began, and his lowest hard-hit rate, and his lowest rate of Barrels … which could simply be a function of the small sample of a short season, too. If he were 28, I’d brush off the low numbers as a fluke, and even though he’s in his mid-30s, there’s still some randomness at play here — his batted-ball data wasn’t as bad as a .199 batting average might imply. He’s a good candidate for a one-year, bounceback deal to be someone’s regular DH or first baseman.

31. Adam Eaton, OF, age 32
The Nats declined Eaton’s $10.5 million option for 2021, paying his $1.5 million buyout, which may reflect their belief in internal options — perhaps even a move for Carter Kieboom to the outfield — rather than an overreaction to a bad 2020 for Eaton. He posted OBPs above .360 in every year from 2014 through 2019, even his injury-wrecked 2017 and 2018, but he’s a liability in right field and does have that injury history. He gets on base well against lefties, so he’s better than a platoon guy, and could be someone’s regular in left field or a great fourth outfielder if you think you’ll have 400-500 at-bats to give him.

32. Brad Miller, IF/OF, age 31
Miller has bounced around the diamond and the majors for eight seasons, but in the last few years he has shown a bit more power — the Happy Fun Ball could be a factor — and when you combine that with his positional versatility as well as adequate walk and contact rates, you get a useful bench player or strong side of a platoon. Miller doesn’t hit lefties, but across the last three seasons, he has had 508 PA against right-handed pitching and batted .253/.338/.487, which is certainly good enough to get him regular duty against them on many clubs. Players like this typically get one-year deals, but I’d consider two years for him, trading some security for a lower base salary because he can fill so many niches off the bench.


Corey Kluber. (Joe Camporeale / USA Today)
33. Corey Kluber, RHP, age 35
Kluber threw just one inning in 2020 before a slight (grade 2) tear in his throwing shoulder ended his season, although it’s unclear if he will require surgery. That comes on the heels of a 2019 season lost to a broken arm after he was hit by a line drive and a lat muscle injury he suffered while rehabbing. We haven’t seen the “real” Kluber since 2018, when he led the AL in innings pitched and was third in the Cy Young voting, although his stuff was pretty close to normal when he did pitch in the last two seasons (by velocity, with slightly lower spin rates). Assuming the muscle tear has healed, I’d certainly throw him a one-year deal with incentives to see if the 2018 version — or something close to it — is still in there.

34. Robinson Chirinos, C, age 37
Chirinos’ 2020 season was a washout due to two unrelated ankle injuries, one of which delayed the start of his season, while the other took him out for two weeks in August, and his manager in Texas indicated that he wasn’t 100 percent from the first injury when he resumed playing anyway. When healthy, he’s a power-over-hit guy who tries to pull the ball, with a lot of loft in his finish. Between 2014, the first time he played regularly, and 2019, he averaged 22 homers per 500 PA, doing more damage against left-handed pitching. He’s a below-average framer and receiver, and that, along with his offensive profile (including too much swing-and-miss) means he’s not really an everyday catcher. But for a team without a true regular there, he’s a good one-year stopgap or part-time option.

35. Alex Colomé, RHP, age 32
Colomé has been a steady, capable right-handed reliever since moving to the role in mid-2015, throwing at least 56 innings in each full season, with FIPs between 2.92 and 4.08 in that span (including 2020). Hitters have a hard time squaring up his cutter; he threw 262 in 2020, more than two-thirds of all pitches, and gave up just 10 hits and only one Barrel on the pitch. As long as he stays healthy, there’s nothing here to say he can’t stay an average, one-inning reliever for many more years, although the risk of all relief pitchers says to stick with one-year deals.

36. Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, age 33
Jeffress is his own worst enemy on the mound: When he throws strikes, he’s effective because he’s so hard to square up, but in 2020 he had his lowest strike percentage since 2012, giving back a lot of the value he generated by keeping hitters from making high-quality contact. He relied more on his sinker and less on his four-seamer last year, but the biggest problem was his knuckle-curve, maybe his least effective pitch, which he threw for strikes just 54 percent of the time. His splitter is an out pitch and has helped him be almost as tough on lefties as he’s been on righties. He’s never going to fill up the zone, but he’s also been much more effective at avoiding walks than he was in 2020, at which point his ability to limit hard contact comes into play and makes him a viable setup option or just above-average middle reliever.

37. Blake Treinen, RHP, age 33
Treinen may never be the pitcher he was in 2018, when he punched out 100 men in 80 1/3 innings with just 18 unintentional walks, but he restored his sinker in 2020 and posted his best groundball rates since he left the Nationals in mid-2017. He’s a capable middle reliever, probably not worthy of high-leverage work because he doesn’t have a third pitch to neutralize lefties.

38. Josh Reddick, OF, age 34
Reddick’s WAR in this shortened season took a huge hit from an outlier defensive performance — he had been average or better for his whole career until this 50-game sample, and I’m not buying that that’s somehow indicative of his true defensive ability.

39. Chris Archer, RHP, age 32
Archer missed the 2020 season after surgery to repair thoracic outlet syndrome, and he had his worst-ever season in 2019 after a mid-season trade to the Pirates the year before. He has a great arm, with an out pitch in his slider, and he wouldn’t be the first pitcher to struggle under the previous Pirates’ coaching staff and find success elsewhere. If he’s healthy, he should have plenty of suitors on one-year deals.

40. Jon Lester, LHP, age 37
Lester might be done, but with the truncated 2020 season and loss of a typical spring training, I’m inclined to give pitchers who didn’t have their typical stuff a little more slack this winter. He was effective right up through 2019, leading with his cutter and using it to keep hitters off his gradually slowing fastball, and he still throws plenty of strikes but his average four-seam velocity was down 1 mph over 2019, when it had dropped about ¾ of a mph over 2018, which are all bad signs for a pitcher his age. If a regular offseason and spring gets him back even half of what he lost, he’d be a good fifth starter on a one-year deal.

(Illustration of Marcus Semien, Trevor Bauer and George Springer: Wes McCabe / The Athletic / USA Today)

 

https://theathletic.com/2153856/2020/10/29/keith-law-top-40-free-agents-ranking-of-the-mlb-offseason-2020/

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WBT

WBT 20564

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

This is a guy who, as president of AZ, built his analytics (sic) department (sic) by hiring his friend who was a retired veterinarian.

I wish I was making that up.

And the baseball media thinks his problem will be batflips and protests.

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shadow_operative

shadow_operative 15932

Posted
Posted

yeah, blue pinstripes.

seeiously though, here's my unbelievably uneducated proposal: KB for Lindor. Rizzo at 1B, Javy at 2B, his buddy Lindor at SS, and you can throw David Bote at 3B full time. the Cubs just won the first ever Team Gold Glove, so A)Lindor only helps there, and B)more importantly he adds a real "professional hitter" type of bat to the lineup. plus KB has fallen off of a cliff and could probably use a change of scenery. hey, i can dream, yeah?

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Guadaloopy

Guadaloopy 10962

Posted
Posted

Isn’t there a separate thread for Cubs fan-fiction?  
 
There is no way the Indians trade Lindor for someone who makes nearly twice as much and who will also be a free agent after ‘21.   The Indians will trade Lindor for prospects to try and keep a relatively cheap winning team.  Trading for Kris Bryant would be objectively worse for the Indians than keeping Lindor and losing him to free agency with the compensatory pick.  

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54215

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 11/2/2020 at 5:49 PM, shadow_operative2.0 said:

Bauer, Gausman, LeMahieu, Realmuto, Springer, Stroman get the $18.9M QO. 

Gausman??!?!?!?

How the fuck does Gausman get an $18.9M offer the same offseason that Brad Hand got cut loose because his team didn't want to pay $10M?

Edited by Beau Vine
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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10510

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Guadaloopy said:

Isn’t there a separate thread for Cubs fan-fiction?  
 
There is no way the Indians trade Lindor for someone who makes nearly twice as much and who will also be a free agent after ‘21.   The Indians will trade Lindor for prospects to try and keep a relatively cheap winning team.  Trading for Kris Bryant would be objectively worse for the Indians than keeping Lindor and losing him to free agency with the compensatory pick.  

Actually, Kris Bryant will make $900,000 less than Kindle next year. But yeah, the rest of your post is spot on.

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Guadaloopy

Guadaloopy 10962

Posted
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Actually, Kris Bryant will make $900,000 less than Kindle next year. But yeah, the rest of your post is spot on.

My bad... somehow got mixed up and compared it to Lindor’s 2019 salary.  Even with the salary being a relative wash, a Bryant/Lindor trade makes zero sense for Cleveland.  It doesn’t make sense for the Cubs either unless they are just that one piece away from World Series contention - which they aren’t.  
But if that is the piece you need - sign Semien and trade Bryant for parts.  

Edited by Guadaloopy
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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54215

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, TonyTexas said:

This should allow the White Sox to back out of a terrible hire. They will have to take some heat though because they knew about both DUIs before the hire.   Reinsdorf needs to back away and let his people do their job. 

Lulz, you don't seem familiar with Jerry Reinsdorf.

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shadow_operative

shadow_operative 15932

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, TonyTexas said:

This should allow the White Sox to back out of a terrible hire. They will have to take some heat though because they knew about both DUIs before the hire.   Reinsdorf needs to back away and let his people do their job. 

seriously- hiring the oldest, most out-of-touch, allegedly racist dude in baseball to manage the youngest, blackest, most gold-chain-wearing, bat flipping, HR-celebrating team in baseball is as blatantly moronic as it gets. 

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shadow_operative

shadow_operative 15932

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 11/9/2020 at 1:36 PM, Guadaloopy said:

Isn’t there a separate thread for Cubs fan-fiction?  
 
There is no way the Indians trade Lindor for someone who makes nearly twice as much and who will also be a free agent after ‘21.   The Indians will trade Lindor for prospects to try and keep a relatively cheap winning team.  Trading for Kris Bryant would be objectively worse for the Indians than keeping Lindor and losing him to free agency with the compensatory pick.  

at least i admitted that i had no idea what i was talking about, and to be fair, i just want KB gone. also, yes, Lindor *is* the type of piece that could get the Cubs a helluva lot closer to being an actual contender. we lose Lester who will need to be replaced, but aside from that a hitter like Lindor is exactly what our lineup needs. he'd be a huge addition to a team that's perennially in the playoffs/winning its division. but please, continue to (erroneously) rave and rant without offering any real alternatives or even getting your facts straight. 

i mean if you're gonna talk to me like i'm a stupid asshole then maybe don't crow about how KB is making TWICE AS MUCH (!!!) as Lindor and then go "oopsie" when it's pointed out to you that Lindor is actually making +
*more* than KB is. that is unless you'd prefer it if everyone around here talks to you like you're a stupid asshole. i'm cool with it either way, as i have a sneaking suspicion that i'd be pretty good at playing the holier-than-thou know-it-all who runs his mouth to people while not actually knowing what he's talking about. just a hunch. 

Edited by shadow_operative
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