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2020 Astros Season Thread

Jshep34

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19600

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Just now, Guadaloopy said:

I was on the “end of an era” bus after the JV TJ news, but the youngsters on the staff have really stepped up.  We are one or two pieces away from being right back in it next year.  I think Crane might push for at least one more year.   But if the team stumbles early next year, Correa will be a mid-season trade.   I don’t think he’ll be traded this off-season when there’s a chance the team could be good next year.  

Probably not. But I guarantee they kick the tires. 

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

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7 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Is JV’s contract insured? 

It has to be, no?  Sucks it still counts against the cap, either way. 

Also, a lot of yall seem to think the Astros are the Marlins or Rays. The Astros had the 6th highest revenue in 2019. The Houston Metro area is no longer mid market either. They can maintain an expensive roster. The main difference between the Astros and LA/NY teams is that the Astros need to be above average to maintain revenue while the Mets can suck and still hang around the top 10 in revenue.  The Rays couldn't sniff the top 10 even if they win the next 2 world series. 

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htown85

htown85 159

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51 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

It has to be, no?  Sucks it still counts against the cap, either way. 

Also, a lot of yall seem to think the Astros are the Marlins or Rays. The Astros had the 6th highest revenue in 2019. The Houston Metro area is no longer mid market either. They can maintain an expensive roster. The main difference between the Astros and LA/NY teams is that the Astros need to be above average to maintain revenue while the Mets can suck and still hang around the top 10 in revenue.  The Rays couldn't sniff the top 10 even if they win the next 2 world series. 

I think more importantly the farm system needs to always produce new talent.  Hopefully Click can make that happen even with the draft penalties.

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6363

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2 minutes ago, htown85 said:

I think more importantly the farm system needs to always produce new talent.  Hopefully Click can make that happen even with the draft penalties.

This is the priority. The farm depth isn't close to what was during the early Lunhow era. That's mostly the price you pay for being a contender for 6 years, but it is now a problem and needs to be addressed. Losing the draft picks complicates this, obviously. I imagine that there is a strategy around international FAs to compensate for that a bit. 

With Correa and Yuli back next year, there will be a good deal on continuity (outside of the OF). 

Beyond 2021, you have a core of Altuve, Bregman, Tucker, Alvarez, Valdez, Urquidy going forward, and question marks elsewhere. That core should remain competitive, but the farm system needs a boost to fill in around these guys. 

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VirginiaLonghorn

VirginiaLonghorn 4921

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59 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

It has to be, no?  Sucks it still counts against the cap, either way. 

Also, a lot of yall seem to think the Astros are the Marlins or Rays. The Astros had the 6th highest revenue in 2019. The Houston Metro area is no longer mid market either. They can maintain an expensive roster. The main difference between the Astros and LA/NY teams is that the Astros need to be above average to maintain revenue while the Mets can suck and still hang around the top 10 in revenue.  The Rays couldn't sniff the top 10 even if they win the next 2 world series. 

I preface my comment by admitting I didn’t check to see if MLB has revenue sharing.  I don’t think they do.  So ...

While I agree with the central theme that Houston is no longer a revenue producing bottom feeder, I believe TV/radio money is what sets NYY, LAD, and Boston apart, giving them a resource stream well above everyone else.  The salary cap “constraint” is moot to those guys if they really want to buy talent.

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6 minutes ago, VirginiaLonghorn said:

I preface my comment by admitting I didn’t check to see if MLB has revenue sharing.  I don’t think they do.  So ...

While I agree with the central theme that Houston is no longer a revenue producing bottom feeder, I believe TV/radio money is what sets NYY, LAD, and Boston apart, giving them a resource stream well above everyone else.  The salary cap “constraint” is moot to those guys if they really want to buy talent.

Not aimed at you, but the notion Houston is just barely afloat financially and doesn't have resources for salary investment might be a bit pessimistic, as well.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19600

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4 minutes ago, slorch said:

Not aimed at you, but the notion Houston is just barely afloat financially and doesn't have resources for salary investment might be a bit pessimistic, as well.

Eh- 1/2 right. We aren’t bottom feeders. We also aren’t going to win the bidding on the top player on the game in FA. So that means we can afford a win win extension for a guy like Bregman to buy out years at a generous rate- but if a guy like Springer or Correa are he’ll bent on testing the market and are the premium FA we ain’t winning that bidding. 
we can afford to buy 2-4 win talent on the open market- which translates to quality regular to low end all star- but the 6-9 win guys, which are mvp level talent- are above our means imo. 

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IDIOTsavant

IDIOTsavant 8690

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14 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Beyond 2021, you have a core of Altuve, Bregman, Tucker, Alvarez, Valdez, Urquidy going forward, and question marks elsewhere. That core should remain competitive, but the farm system needs a boost to fill in around these guys. 

Hopefully, Pedro Leon is the real deal and makes short work of the minors. If the front office thinks he's close, we might be able to get away with only resigning one of Springer or Brantley.

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VirginiaLonghorn

VirginiaLonghorn 4921

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6 minutes ago, htown85 said:

Basically recreate what the Cardinals have done.  Always competitive with a shot at the playoffs.  Make a deadline deal to shore up any weakness before the playoffs and you have a chance to win the whole thing.

The team about to eliminate the Astros have it figured out, too.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19600

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33 minutes ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

Just curious because I have no idea, what’s the chances whitely comes up next season and contributes? And is there anyone else that can come in and be a quality starter like Urquidy and Valdez have done?

25/75?  And sure- as long as the development staff remains as good as it is (and Click has a base that's pretty good there that he inherited and has been a part of a really good organization in Tampa), so I would be surprised if it doesn't turn out that we keep sending serviceable to above average pitchers to the majors.  Ace's?  That's a different story and going to mark how far you go in October. Along with, as we are seeing in this series, dumb ass luck.  

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19600

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1 hour ago, IDIOTsavant said:

Hopefully, Pedro Leon is the real deal and makes short work of the minors. If the front office thinks he's close, we might be able to get away with only resigning one of Springer or Brantley.

Tell me about Pedro Leon, I know nothing about him. Thanks in advance. 

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Gourmand

Gourmand 7778

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10 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Tell me about Pedro Leon, I know nothing about him. Thanks in advance. 

He was supposed to be signed this summer but Covid moved the int'l signing period so he's expected to sign with the Astros in January. Hopefully they get that deal done and he's not Ariel Ovando 2.0

https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2020/2/20/21145398/parsing-pedro-leon

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Js1

Js1 87333

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8 minutes ago, Gourmand said:

He was supposed to be signed this summer but Covid moved the int'l signing period so he's expected to sign with the Astros in January. Hopefully they get that deal done and he's not Ariel Ovando 2.0

https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2020/2/20/21145398/parsing-pedro-leon

So he's Cuban 22?  That's like, 34 in American. 

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IDIOTsavant

IDIOTsavant 8690

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1 hour ago, Gourmand said:

He was supposed to be signed this summer but Covid moved the int'l signing period so he's expected to sign with the Astros in January. Hopefully they get that deal done and he's not Ariel Ovando 2.0

https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2020/2/20/21145398/parsing-pedro-leon

Understand the hesitation, but he's already seen better in-game pitching than Ovando ever did as a 16 year old. I'd be more worried about him being Rusney Castillo 2.0 (albeit MUCH cheaper), but the Astros were the only club that got a private workout, and they captured data on his swing. He immediately got a $4M offer after the workout and shut down other visits. I'm cautiously optimistic.

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

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3 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Eh- 1/2 right. We aren’t bottom feeders. We also aren’t going to win the bidding on the top player on the game in FA. So that means we can afford a win win extension for a guy like Bregman to buy out years at a generous rate- but if a guy like Springer or Correa are he’ll bent on testing the market and are the premium FA we ain’t winning that bidding. 
we can afford to buy 2-4 win talent on the open market- which translates to quality regular to low end all star- but the 6-9 win guys, which are mvp level talent- are above our means imo. 

In 2019, the Astros were the most profitable team in baseball, and that was with one of the highest payrolls already.  Who is really in the market to pay them at that level?  It isnt like the other heavy spenders have cap room either, and even the Yankees don't like to go past the luxury tax level anymore. I guess Springer and Correa already won a title so they may be content with being the one great player on a non-playoff team like Trout. 

But even so, I dont think the Astros should get in that type of bidding war.  Not that I don't want George to get a huge payday, but I think even the Angels realize that paying one guy so much money means that they won't be able to put a winning team around him.  You could get three 10 million dollar players for 1 Trout and still have 3 million to toss around. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19600

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1 minute ago, FondrenRoad said:

In 2019, the Astros were the most profitable team in baseball, and that was with one of the highest payrolls already.  Who is really in the market to pay them at that level?  It isnt like the other heavy spenders have cap room either, and even the Yankees don't like to go past the luxury tax level anymore. I guess Springer and Correa already won a title so they may be content with being the one great player on a non-playoff team like Trout. 

But even so, I dont think the Astros should get in that type of bidding war.  Not that I don't want George to get a huge payday, but I think even the Angels realize that paying one guy so much money means that they won't be able to put a winning team around him.  You could get three 10 million dollar players for 1 Trout and still have 3 million to toss around. 

Teams that would definitely make sense to spend at the top of the market for Springer and Correa and could do so:

Anaheim (with Pujols coming off next year), San Diego (super low payroll- room to add more b/c of young talent), Chi SOX (same as San Diego- bigger market), San Francisco- these are all teams that have the juice to add that kind of payroll and should be coming into the winning part of their cycle, and/or big market teams.  

Then, of course, you have the obvious Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Miami Marlins, Cubs that are big market power teams that can always open up the check book whenever they want.

I look for Springer to go to the White Sox and Correa to sign with the Yankees.  The dipshit they have out there at SS isn't good enough to play SS and Correa could move him off of there in a heartbeat. 

Those would be my predictions right now.  

Also- I don't believe that 2019 thing for a second. The payroll was maxed out and their TV ideal is meh.  No way.  And it's precisely because the payroll is high that I don't see them paying either of those two top of the market.  

Look- I hope I'm wrong. And I don't think Crane is going to burn it all to the ground again. I just don't think he's going to pay top of the market to the #1 FA in that years class. George is the prime get in OF- and nobody else is even close. Correa might not be the best position player in 2021 but if he isn't he's top 2 or 3 for sure- right?

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19600

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1 hour ago, HillaryFan420 said:

The teams who do that kind of shit are teams like the Indians who want to field the cheapest team possible that can reasonably be expected to be competitive.  Crane doesn't appear to be of that sort.  

Not in a public way.  That's the Indians acting like dip shits. We won't do that publicly. But we had Springer low key ready to be moved in 2018.

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IDIOTsavant

IDIOTsavant 8690

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2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Teams that would definitely make sense to spend at the top of the market for Springer and Correa and could do so:

Anaheim (with Pujols coming off next year), San Diego (super low payroll- room to add more b/c of young talent), Chi SOX (same as San Diego- bigger market), San Francisco- these are all teams that have the juice to add that kind of payroll and should be coming into the winning part of their cycle, and/or big market teams.  

Then, of course, you have the obvious Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Miami Marlins, Cubs that are big market power teams that can always open up the check book whenever they want.

I look for Springer to go to the White Sox and Correa to sign with the Yankees.  The dipshit they have out there at SS isn't good enough to play SS and Correa could move him off of there in a heartbeat. 

Those would be my predictions right now.  

Also- I don't believe that 2019 thing for a second. The payroll was maxed out and their TV ideal is meh.  No way.  And it's precisely because the payroll is high that I don't see them paying either of those two top of the market.  

Look- I hope I'm wrong. And I don't think Crane is going to burn it all to the ground again. I just don't think he's going to pay top of the market to the #1 FA in that years class. George is the prime get in OF- and nobody else is even close. Correa might not be the best position player in 2021 but if he isn't he's top 2 or 3 for sure- right?

I think the real concern is WTF did Covid do to revenue this year? I can see this being a light year for free agents due to surprising budget constraints across the board. Selfishly hoping that Springer decides its better to sign a high value 1 year deal rather than a lower AAV longer deal and try again next offseason. Usually this is a terrible idea, but I think it's something we might see more of this offseason. I say this having not looked at the other available outfield options after 2021.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19600

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18 minutes ago, IDIOTsavant said:

I think the real concern is WTF did Covid do to revenue this year? I can see this being a light year for free agents due to surprising budget constraints across the board. Selfishly hoping that Springer decides its better to sign a high value 1 year deal rather than a lower AAV longer deal and try again next offseason. Usually this is a terrible idea, but I think it's something we might see more of this offseason. I say this having not looked at the other available outfield options after 2021.

Yeah- that's a real astute point. And it's not just about what revenue did for individual teams- it's also about what Covid did to income streams and net worths from the owners other businesses.  That might be even more important.  

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

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4 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah- that's a real astute point. And it's not just about what revenue did for individual teams- it's also about what Covid did to income streams and net worths from the owners other businesses.  That might be even more important.  

What did the TV numbers look like this year?  I think they underpriced mlb TV this year. I watched a lot more games than usual even when my favorite team was in a down year.  Although I'm probably a bad example since I always watched a lot of baseball even when I wasn't stuck at home all summer. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19600

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1 minute ago, FondrenRoad said:

What did the TV numbers look like this year?  I think they underpriced mlb TV this year. I watched a lot more games than usual even when my favorite team was in a down year.  Although I'm probably a bad example since I always watched a lot of baseball even when I wasn't stuck at home all summer. 

Heard the numbers the first month were really good. 

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WBT

WBT 21039

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Greinke doesn't tell hitters what he's throwing dipshits.

On at least 2 occasions, I've heard Smoltz complain during broadcasts about how he used to sign back to the catcher to change a pitch and that guys should do it today to help avoid cross ups and speed up the game.

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Gourmand

Gourmand 7778

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5 minutes ago, WBT said:

Greinke doesn't tell hitters what he's throwing dipshits.

On at least 2 occasions, I've heard Smoltz complain during broadcasts about how he used to sign back to the catcher to change a pitch and that guys should do it today to help avoid cross ups and speed up the game.

thinking Greinke is showing hitters his signs is as dumb as thinking that stealing signs is a singular determinative factor in winning baseball games, as opposed to situational hitting, pitching, and defensive execution. (see Rays, game 3 ALCS) 

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