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2020 Astros Season Thread

Jshep34

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Gourmand
Gourmand

Tucker's going to hit a walkoff hr. Sent from my Pixel 3a using Tapatalk

Jshep34
Jshep34

It's astros baseball time! Let's go astros!! Started by lilshep   Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk    

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Jshep34

The man!!! Baseball is signed on sweet spot Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

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The Earl of Texas

The Earl of Texas 3132

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Gourmand said:

so who's got the social media dirt on Framber and Yandy Diaz? gotta be about pussy no?

They’re in a heated situation with a lot of money and glory on the line. And the Rays are feeling historic pressure.

With that said, yeah, it’s probably about Yandy being a pussy.

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wood

wood 11225

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, WBT said:

Interesting, Machete says the bunt was his idea.  There will probably still be lots of articles about how old school Dusty is for putting it on.

Yeah I get analytics and understand why bunting has decreased overall, but Got dammit, there are still certain situations that just beg for a bunt, and people are crazy to not be doing it in those circumstances. 

I heard in one of  the games the other day that some managers would like to bunt more, but "nobody does it any more, so nobody's good at it". Lamest, weakest excuse ever.

Edited by wood
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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Posted
1 hour ago, runthebone said:

In 2004, the Red Sox exploded in Game 7 and made it a laugher.  It'd be nice if we do that today.

Ben Harper wrote a song about it.  Obviously it's hindsight, but the moment that Damon grand-slam stayed left of the foul pole, you knew they'd take Flag, and the World Series too.  The post-season effectively ended half-way through the top half of the 2nd inning of an ALCS game.  

Hope the Astros can pull off something similar.  Been quite a ride for y'all...keep it going and on Texas soil no less.  

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VirginiaLonghorn

VirginiaLonghorn 4771

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1 hour ago, UTHornFan014 said:

Reading an ESPN article and it said that the bunt actually reduced our winning percentage from ~49% to ~48%. I still think it was the right call in that situation (with Maldonado being a big DP or K candidate)

Not sure how ESPiN spun that number because, as you note, the SAC got two in scoring position and reduced the odds of a DP by Maldonado ... and Springer, too, with 1B open.

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Mack Tripper

Mack Tripper 696

Posted
Posted
Not sure how ESPiN spun that number because, as you note, the SAC got two in scoring position and reduced the odds of a DP by Maldonado ... and Springer, too, with 1B open.

Because analytics views all 27 outs as equal and extremely valuable like possessions in the NBA. That’s in part why the Rays don’t care about starting a game with a relief pitcher. The only productive outs are those that score a runner from third. Not saying I agree but that’s how a lot of these front offices see the game.
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VirginiaLonghorn

VirginiaLonghorn 4771

Posted
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8 minutes ago, Mack Tripper said:


Because analytics views all 27 outs as equal and extremely valuable like possessions in the NBA. That’s in part why the Rays don’t care about starting a game with a relief pitcher. The only productive outs are those that score a runner from third. Not saying I agree but that’s how a lot of these front offices see the game.

Appreciate the feedback.  I guess I'd be better informed had I taken my slide rule to games as a kid ...

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WBT

WBT 20564

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, UTHornFan014 said:

Reading an ESPN article and it said that the bunt actually reduced our winning percentage from ~49% to ~48%. I still think it was the right call in that situation (with Maldonado being a big DP or K candidate)

I don't know what that article was using but most of those winning percentage estimates are based on run expectancy tables for a given state of outs and men on base averaged over an entire season or several seasons (ie with runners on 1st and 2nd and no outs, team average x additional runs per inning but with runners on 2nd and 3rd and 1 out, they average y additional runs per inning).  But when it's close, like in this case, you have to consider the matchups.  Like was said, how likely is Machete to strike out or gidp?  And how likely is he to get the bunt down?  He's actually a pretty good bunter from what I've seen.  And in this case, the bunt was to move 2 runners into scoring position for Springer and Altuve, better than average hitters.  

I think in general analytics has it right that there was way too much bunting in the old days.  And Alex Rodriguez whining about the lack of bunting every time a runner is on gets old.  But in this case, I think it was a justifiable play.

Edited by WBT
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Rockethorn1978

Rockethorn1978 6077

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I really want to see us blow this open early but I think this is just how we win or lose games. All have been pretty close so I’m hoping for a win tonight. I remember last year game 7 hoping to see us explode and win and by inning 3 I realized this is just how we were playing and it was gonna be a close game. 
 

We are definitely due a 10-12 run game though.

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wood

wood 11225

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Mack Tripper said:


Because analytics views all 27 outs as equal and extremely valuable like possessions in the NBA. That’s in part why the Rays don’t care about starting a game with a relief pitcher. The only productive outs are those that score a runner from third. Not saying I agree but that’s how a lot of these front offices see the game.

I guess analytics do not take into consideration who the batter is, who the runners are, the increased likelihood of runners scoring from scoring position, or myriad other variables. Certainly without the bunt a grounder like Springer's  doesn't score 2 even if it gets through, and I can't remember what kind of D shift the Rays use on Maldonado. That all factors in as well. He could easily hit into a DP, or he doesn't bunt, then strikes out.

These are reasons why I think at times the manager should go against analytics. There's only so much it can account for. IMHO it should be used as a guiding principle - a major tool, but not the only tool in the manager's tool box.

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wood

wood 11225

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, WBT said:

I don't know what that article was using but most of those winning percentage estimates are based on run expectancy tables for a given state of outs and men on base averaged over an entire season or several seasons (ie with runners on 1st and 2nd and no outs, team average x additional runs per inning but with runners on 2nd and 3rd and 1 out, they average y additional runs per inning).  But when it's close, like in this case, you have to consider the matchups.  Like was said, how likely is Machete to strike out or gidp?  And how likely is he to get the bunt down?  He's actually a pretty good bunter from what I've seen.  And in this case, the bunt was to move 2 runners into scoring position for Springer and Altuve, better than average hitters.  

I think in general analytics has it right that there was way too much bunting in the old days.  And Alex Rodriguez whining about the lack of bunting every time a runner is on gets old.  But in this case, I think it was a justifiable play.

Exactly, and Springer and Altuve are not just better than avg hitters ... they're better than average hitters who are hot. It was a no-brainer to bunt there, imho.

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14678

Posted
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1 hour ago, VirginiaLonghorn said:

Not sure how ESPiN spun that number because, as you note, the SAC got two in scoring position and reduced the odds of a DP by Maldonado ... and Springer, too, with 1B open.

It doesn't account for Cash over managing with the drawn in infield + the shift. I still can't believe he did that.

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Js1

Js1 85321

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38 minutes ago, wood said:

Exactly, and Springer and Altuve are not just better than avg hitters ... they're better than average hitters who are hot. It was a no-brainer to bunt there, imho.

Augie would have been so proud.  Down 1-0, you gotta get at least 1 run on the board.  

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19069

Posted
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15 minutes ago, elfenix said:

18 sides come up to bat, 18 shiners in a box. Coincidence?
8de0d04d5e84fdd13685dc052e580e15.jpg

4 quarters in a football game. 4 beers per quarter. 16 beers I drank during Texas OU. Didn’t work out very well for me last weekend. Spent 3 days in the doghouse. My kids kept asking me why daddy got so drunk. I’m not saying don’t do this- I’m just saying be careful. 

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