Gold

[Horn_Spanker 524]

Getting damn close to the magical $2,000!  Time to be weighing the scrap.

[Doc Reeves 6434]

[Armybrat 40847]

Thanks Mom.

[workswithseed 2108]

Paging @bernorange to the golden courtesy phone line.

[Sbbruin 21853]

 

Edited July 29, 2020 by Sbbruin

[AUS-97HORN 11763]

does the UT endowment still own the 6,643 gold bars?    all I can find is an article from 2018 where the endowment said they want to slowly move away from physical gold. 

[Blotto 23512]

53 minutes ago, Horn_Spanker said:

Getting damn close to the magical $2,000!  Time to be weighing the scrap.

Are you suggesting that now would be a good time to invest in precious metals?

[jeevsie 3734]

Who do we send money to? Billy, Sam, or April? I forget. #psig

[Armybrat 40847]

1 hour ago, AUS-97HORN said:

does the UT endowment still own the 6,643 gold bars?    all I can find is an article from 2018 where the endowment said they want to slowly move away from physical gold. 

I thought they just finished building that new repository in Cedar Park?

[Continental Op 3934]

1 hour ago, Blotto said:

Are you suggesting that now would be a good time to invest in precious metals?

Or, failing that, a competition bbq food truck. 

[atomheartbevo 89670]

2 hours ago, Armybrat said:

Thanks Mom.

I knew your mom was long-lived, but 1821-1947???  

And I'm assuming that no matter how much of an angel she was, she didn't actually have wings.

[dingleberryswitzer 2724]

1 hour ago, jeevsie said:

Who do we send money to? Billy, Sam, or April? I forget. #psig

Louie Anderson, duh 

[BNB 100]

Yeah, after years of radio ads, missing out, I'm thinking about Gold now.

 

[jimmyjazz 45957]

Yeah, I can't think of a better time to invest in a commodity than at an all-time high.

[Lerka Lerka 1087]

1 hour ago, Armybrat said:

I thought they just finished building that new repository in Cedar Park?

Leander

[Rip76 4928]

3 hours ago, Sbbruin said:

 

Lindsey and Stevie on backups.

[XYZ 2154]

There’s nothing to see here. Go back to your stocks and shitcoin.

[ztejas 43450]

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

Yeah, I can't think of a better time to invest in a commodity than at an all-time high.

First, that has very little to nothing to do with whether something is a good investment or not. 

Second, gold is nowhere near an all-time high. It's actually very close to an all-time low if you adjust for inflation (which you should - I don't understand why you wouldn't). 

[jimmyjazz 45957]

12 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Second, gold is nowhere near an all-time high. It's actually very close to an all-time low if you adjust for inflation (which you should - I don't understand why you wouldn't). 

Wow, inflation must have been screaming high over the past 20 months or so.

[clapclapclap 9000]

4 hours ago, Blotto said:

Are you suggesting that now would be a good time to invest in precious metals?

Only if it is physical possession.

[ztejas 43450]

9 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Wow, inflation must have been screaming high over the past 20 months or so.

I was looking at some bad sources for my second point. I should have dug a little deeper (no pun intended) for a more accurate picture. On review it seems like it is expensive right now but there were similar peaks around 2012 and in the early 80s.

[Fudge Nuggets 19190]

6 hours ago, ztejas said:

On review it seems like it is expensive right now but there were similar peaks around 2012 and in the early 80s.

Right before it shit the bed both times.  

[hornian 5219]

It’s gold, Jerry!

[Underdog 28639]

Gold?

[ztejas 43450]

1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Right before it shit the bed both times.  

Due to very different circumstances.

[Fudge Nuggets 19190]

The 1980's rampant inflation led to a speculative bubble in gold.

2012, fears of a Eurozone collapse due to the debt loads of the shitty PIGS led to a speculative bubble in gold.

2020, pandemic leads to printing dollars like crazy, leads to fears of future inflation, leads to a speculative bubble in gold.

Yep, totally different.

[ztejas 43450]

13 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

The 1980's rampant inflation led to a speculative bubble in gold.

2012, fears of a Eurozone collapse due to the debt loads of the shitty PIGS led to a speculative bubble in gold.

2020, pandemic leads to printing dollars like crazy, leads to fears of future inflation, leads to a speculative bubble in gold.

Yep, totally different.

It sounds like you have it all figured out so why are you talking to me? Is your money where your mouth is? If so I hope you're right. 

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

The peaks in '80 and '11 also came after a 10+ years of mega return; and just like stonks or RE, FOMO kicked in and gold overshot. 

Looks to me like we are still in year 1 of a gold bull market, not saying it will run for 10 more years, but it's a little early to call it a bubble.

[Armybrat 40847]

Are you sure?

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

[Harrison Stafford 3335]

The gold silver ratio hit a historic high going back against every century of recorded history and now the spread is collapsing back to normal ranges, which entails silver skyrocketing.  That's the silver lining in your precious metals play.

[ztejas 43450]

4 hours ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

Why logarithmic though? 

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

Why logarithmic though? 

Because of the long time scale, I would look at the stock market logarithmically too over that amount of time

[ztejas 43450]

5 minutes ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

Because of the long time scale, I would look at the stock market logarithmically too over that amount of time

Fair point. I guess it kind of adjusts for inflation on it's own.

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

ehh, not really, but here's the regular scale if you prefer

[Orange&White 5528]

nm...just saw dingleberryswitzer beat me to it.

Edited July 29, 2020 by Orange&White

[bernorange 8361]

19 hours ago, workswithseed said:

Paging @bernorange to the golden courtesy phone line.

yo

18 hours ago, AUS-97HORN said:

does the UT endowment still own the 6,643 gold bars?    all I can find is an article from 2018 where the endowment said they want to slowly move away from physical gold. 

UTIMCO's 2019 financial statement shows that they owned slightly more than $300 million worth of gold circa August 31, 2019.  They haven't posted a 2020 statement yet.

17 hours ago, Armybrat said:

I thought they just finished building that new repository in Cedar Park?

The Texas Bullion Repository in Leander is an agency of the State of Texas and separate from UTIMCO.  I don't know where UTIMCO is currently vaulting their gold.

IMO, Rusty is correct - gold is just getting started (not peaked yet).  Last market analysis I read claimed:

Quote

...
“Looking at open interest in the futures markets, there does not seem to be excessive speculative positioning. This suggests physical buying and exchange traded funds are currently the key factors driving the price, which means a break above $2,000 will likely lead to increased speculative positioning that could push prices even higher,” said Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist at FXTM in a report Monday.

Analysts at Commerzbank also said that gold has plenty of upside when looking at speculative interest.

“The fact that the rise in the gold price has been hardly driven by speculation at all argues against any excessive correction,” the analysts said in a report Monday. “Net long positions held by speculative financial investors increased only slightly in the last reporting week, and still remain significantly short of their early-March level.”
...

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-07-27/Hedge-funds-continue-to-bet-on-gold-prices-have-room-to-move-higher.html

Edited July 29, 2020 by bernorange

[ztejas 43450]

34 minutes ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

ehh, not really, but here's the regular scale if you prefer

I just mean it levels it out a bit.

Here's CPI-U adjusted non linear. 

28 minutes ago, bernorange said:

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-07-27/Hedge-funds-continue-to-bet-on-gold-prices-have-room-to-move-higher.html

https://www.google.com/amp/s/markets.businessinsider.com/amp/news/goldman-sachs-raises-12-month-gold-forecast-2300-per-ounce-2020-7-1029437936

Goldman's 12 month target is 2300

[Superhero 8830]

10 hours ago, Harrison Stafford said:

The gold silver ratio hit a historic high going back against every century of recorded history and now the spread is collapsing back to normal ranges, which entails silver skyrocketing.  That's the silver lining in your precious metals play.

I'm onboard with this. I bought a bunch of physical silver around 2012 - 2013 and watched it drop like a rock. I was down about 40% at one time. Just waiting for it to break even and then I'm liquidating most of my silver and buying more gold.

[clapclapclap 9000]

This post was written in a hotel room in New York City
Right about the time a friend of ours, Little Steven
Was putting together a record of artists against apartheids
It's a song written about a man in a shanty town outside of Johannesburg
A man who's sick of looking down the barrel of white South Africa
A man who is at the point where he is ready to take up arms against his oppressor
A man who has lost faith in the peace makers of the West
While they argue and while they fail to support a man like Bishop Tutu
And his request for economic sanctions against South Africa
Am I bugging you?
Don't mean to BUG! ya
Ok Edge, play the blues

[RDCanecutter 26443]

22 hours ago, Superhero said:

I'm onboard with this. I bought a bunch of physical silver around 2012 - 2013 and watched it drop like a rock. I was down about 40% at one time. Just waiting for it to break even and then I'm liquidating most of my silver and buying more gold.

I get why you might want to free up the $ by selling the silver, but I don't understand why people are choosing to buy gold right now.

Of course, I am usually wrong. Just seems like there might be other things not currently maxed out in price that you could get instead.

(When gold shoots up to $4K/oz, I will be honored to have this post resurrected and mocked.)

[Superhero 8830]

8 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

I get why you might want to free up the $ by selling the silver, but I don't understand why people are choosing to buy gold right now.

Of course, I am usually wrong. Just seems like there might be other things not currently maxed out in price that you could get instead.

(When gold shoots up to $4K/oz, I will be honored to have this post resurrected and mocked.)

It's more about selling my silver. I have a lot of silver, and even though it's fun to roll around in silver coins, a lot of silver = a lot of weight.

The gold/silver price ratio is 87:1 now. Which suggests I should be hoarding more silver.  But carrying 1 oz of gold is easier than lugging around 5.5 pounds of silver.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/658611-precious-metals-are-on-sale-or-are-they

[RDCanecutter 26443]

1 minute ago, Superhero said:

It's more about selling my silver. I have a lot of silver, and even though it's fun to roll around in silver coins, a lot of silver = a lot of weight.

The gold/silver price ratio is 87:1 now. Which suggests I should be hoarding more silver.  But carrying 1 oz of gold is easier than lugging around 5.5 pounds of silver.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/658611-precious-metals-are-on-sale-or-are-they

I can dig it.

Counting the mark-ups I see on my favorite dealer, the real ratio is closer to 77 to 1, taken from comparing the cheapest gold bar to the cheapest silver bullion.

Oddly, the big silver ingots are not always the best price.

[leaf 685]

I bought 100 1 oz. silver rounds at the end on March for about $17.00 each.  I don't pay much attention to the market.  For those of you that do, do you think that silver will continue to go up?

[ztejas 43450]

1 hour ago, RDCanecutter said:

I get why you might want to free up the $ by selling the silver, but I don't understand why people are choosing to buy gold right now.

Of course, I am usually wrong. Just seems like there might be other things not currently maxed out in price that you could get instead.

(When gold shoots up to $4K/oz, I will be honored to have this post resurrected and mocked.)

Gold is not maxed out. Maybe this is a peak but there is plenty of room for it to go up with the current state of affairs globally. Idk about $4k an ounce but many analysts aren't seeing 2k as particularly close to a short term ceiling. 

1 hour ago, Superhero said:

The gold/silver price ratio is 87:1 now. Which suggests I should be hoarding more silver. 

Assuming you are anticipating the ratio to decline, to hedge properly you should be shorting gold in addition to buying silver. The ratio has nothing to do with the value of silver in a vaccum. 

As for "carrying them around" most precious metals you buy will be held at your expense. It is difficult to physically obtain the metal iirc. 

[Gatorubet 30239]

On 7/28/2020 at 9:44 PM, atomheartbevo said:

I knew your mom was long-lived, but 1821-1947???  

And I'm assuming that no matter how much of an angel she was, she didn't actually have wings.

Pancho Villa had no complaints

[bernorange 8361]

10 hours ago, ztejas said:

... It is difficult to physically obtain the metal iirc. 

There are many ways to buy "gold" - ETFs, futures contracts (COMEX), allocated shares at a vault (direct claim, high storage fees), unallocated shares at a vault (no direct claim, lower fees), physical metal from a dealer or refinery.

The last option is really easy for the lay person.  You will likely only have difficulty if you are trying to buy UTIMCO sized quantities.  Most players buying on that scale are taking physical delivery on futures contracts and that's where things get murky apparently.

Also, it's possible for the gold/silver ratio to decline while both gold and silver continue going up (silver just goes up faster).  i wouldn't be shorting gold right now unless you had insider info from someone at the Fed.

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

13 hours ago, Superhero said:

It's more about selling my silver. I have a lot of silver, and even though it's fun to roll around in silver coins, a lot of silver = a lot of weight.

The gold/silver price ratio is 87:1 now. Which suggests I should be hoarding more silver.  But carrying 1 oz of gold is easier than lugging around 5.5 pounds of silver.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/658611-precious-metals-are-on-sale-or-are-they

I have some physical gold and silver and also hold gold and silver ETFs, but (mainly because of the size difference) for my future PM purchases, I have settled on buying only physical gold and only ETF silver.

[Elvis 3371]

On 7/28/2020 at 11:59 PM, clapclapclap said:

Only if it is physical possession.

I remember a story that she died from the gold paint.  Is that true?

[RDCanecutter 26443]

If anybody is thinking of buying more physical gold or silver, think for a moment about what you get when you resell it.

Commemorative/"shipwreck"/Super-duper numismatic value, those are nice to look at. The resale value might be half what you paid. Maybe you can find another collector who'll give you what you paid.

In normal times, the premium you pay for US Silver Eagles, you can probably get that back. Right now, those premiums are crazy, so who knows.

If somebody is offering you less than 95% spot value for your gold, walk away, unless you really really need that meth right now. For silver, at least spot price minus a dollar. (This was in the Before Times, actually now you can probably get at least spot price for both if you nose around.)

Think about where you'll be, and how much the average person in that area knows about gold and silver, and what they prefer. I have never been to Asia, but India is supposed to be gold-crazy. I hear that Asian buyers want more 24k stuff too, so you might want to go with something like a Buffalo instead of an Eagle.

I like Mexico, and never miss a chance to pick up a couple of gold pesos. Super common. They buy and sell them in banks there. I figure I could live like a freak in Mexico on two or three of these a month:

In the US, unless your family is really different from the norm, your relatives will have no idea what your metal is worth and will veer between thinking it's magical millionaire money, or that it's no good because it's old and maybe foreign. I suggest taking the most serpent-like of your descendants and educating him/her/it as to what the coins are, where to sell them, or else you'll keel over, and if they don't chuck the gold out along with your #1 Action Comics, then they'll roll down to the pawn shop with it and maybe get half price, which they will immediately spend on a piece of glass and plastic that goes bloop bloop bloop for a year, until they drop it.