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So, am I getting another $3900 check? Should I?


Wulaw Horn

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1 minute ago, Captainant said:

Yes, but what if we have been brrrrrting since last year? The economy has had a fluffer for the last fiscal year and a half when you consider the corporate socialism and free taxpayer monies doled out

There is a lot of room in pipeline. The Phillips Curve is not working as expected. brrrrting not causing inflation. We need starter fluid in the carb, not more gas in the tank. Most Americans reside in the carburetor. When that engine is running smooth, the carburetor works like a champ. Rocket fuel. 

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Haven't read the thread. Lazy. Also kinda drunk.

If we can spend a trillion dollars on a fighter jet that doesn't work, maybe just maybe we can spend money to keep Americans afloat and keep the economy from collapsing. The issue isn't that we can't afford this. I mean that's true. We shouldn't be doing this.

But the issue is that we should be able to afford to do this because this is the rainy day we should have been saving for. We shouldn't have been spending TRILLIONS of dollars on unnecessary military expenses, etc.

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6 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Haven't read the thread. Lazy. Also kinda drunk.

If we can spend a trillion dollars on a fighter jet that doesn't work, maybe just maybe we can spend money to keep Americans afloat and keep the economy from collapsing. The issue isn't that we can't afford this. I mean that's true. We shouldn't be doing this.

But the issue is that we should be able to afford to do this because this is the rainy day we should have been saving for. We shouldn't have been spending TRILLIONS of dollars on unnecessary military expenses, etc.

Well, that's just crazy talk.  I mean, if we can't goose corporate payouts during a pandemic but never balance the budget, what the hell are we doing?

I'll have what you're having.

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This question is in essence, addressed previously on another thread, why I rejected the Republican Party decades ago. I try hard to live based on principles, and the principles I've chosen are liberty and limited government interference. That means limited government in all aspects. The GOP gives lip service to that but they spend like madmen while also working to limit civil liberties. The Democratic Party spends like madmen but they more frequently try to (admittedly partially) cover that spending with revenue and they also are more likely to fight for civil liberties.

Helping people is more important than helping bank accounts.

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We have been on the inflate or die model since the 1970's. The end of the neoliberal era was long overdue. It came down to that fundamental promise - those trillions would trickle down. 

Welcome to MMT - the economic system of oligarchs. Now everyone will share in the riches of an economy that makes money because Americans spend money. 

New economic ride. Should be smooth as silk. Bullet Train on overdrive. 

Edited by washparkhorn
It makes no damn sense, but MMT stumbled on to something that actually checks out as valid in terms of wealth transfer to the moneyed class. Does it apply to the masses? It should if we have full employment.
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then he's not paying enough.
 

Back when the additional money was first added to unemployment, we had contract electricians (journeymen and helpers) that were begging to be RIF’ed so they could get unemployment. The grocery store owners hourly pay rate has shit to do with some people’s desire to work if they can make it on what they get in the mailbox.
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They’ve been saying this for months and now it’s 7/31. Didn’t get a check last round, won’t get a check this round with either partisan plan. Makes zero sense to give a one time check to stimulate the economy with such a high unemployment rate. Those that need it the most will need to save it for expenses, not buy a new washer and dryer. The parameters are also fucked up. If you made $200K+ in 2019, but got furloughed/laid off due to COVID in 2020, you’re fucked.


Yeah, more or less this. You can't stimulate your way out of this, it's not a conventional downturn. And the problem of layoffs is real. Rent/mortgage relief program would've been a much better use of the money. If I get another check I'll split it between liquid savings and charity, as I'm fortunate enough to be employed.

Letting enhanced unemployment lapse was criminal negligence though. I don't care if some restaurant or retail employees were making more to stay home. That's good policy right now. We don't need people going out to work in customer facing roles, especially when that group of customers self selects for the people most likely to spread COVID. Now a lot of people are really fucked.
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7 hours ago, Captainant said:

Yes, but what if we have been brrrrrting since last year? The economy has had a fluffer for the last fiscal year and a half when you consider the corporate socialism and free taxpayer monies doled out

Well that was somewhat implicit in my post.  I'm not so sure about the other brrrrting.  And that's putting it mildly.

I should also clarify that the "stimulus," other than PPP in concept (as opposed perhaps to execution), seems stingy and haphazard.

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5 hours ago, Ted Lange said:

Are we on the verge of the New Deal part II? 

We have bailed out everyone except the American workers.

 

Even if the US were.....the very people that this would be aimed at helping (#MAGA) would be the most vocal about how this is the worst idea ever.

Since the GOP is openly grumbling about costs 4 months prior to a presumed Presidential change, you know what kind of hell they are going to raise if Biden does actually get to move into the Oval next January.

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6 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I don't think we could cause inflation if we actually tried harder, which is hard to even imagine.  The cause and effect are broken.

Yeah, that’s my thought process on being ok with the helicopter money. I wouldn’t have been say 5 years ago, but it has become exceedingly obvious that there is no way inflation is going to hit in the United States in this environment. Interest rates have been falling since what- 1980 and we are looking at free money, everywhere, with no consequences. Shrugs shoulders and says- let’s go ahead and do what we have to do. 
As far as the other stuff I talked about goes- employment and jobs are pretty cool.   You have a job and your life is generally decent. Everyone in the country has a job and things are generally pretty good. 
I’m like president Dave I guess- everybody get to work. 
The proposal to a giveaway to the heb workout of McDonald’s worker is just common decency. Those people showed up to work without bitching and didn’t get paid shit from the word go. I’ve been tipping them $5 or $10 if I have it every time I go to the store, or fast food (rare now) during three time of the pandemic. Government giving them a hardship bump just seems like common decency. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
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19 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


 

 


Yeah, more or less this. You can't stimulate your way out of this, it's not a conventional downturn. And the problem of layoffs is real. Rent/mortgage relief program would've been a much better use of the money. If I get another check I'll split it between liquid savings and charity, as I'm fortunate enough to be employed.

Letting enhanced unemployment lapse was criminal negligence though. I don't care if some restaurant or retail employees were making more to stay home. That's good policy right now. We don't need people going out to work in customer facing roles, especially when that group of customers self selects for the people most likely to spread COVID. Now a lot of people are really fucked.

 

Yeah- this was my concern the first time around- stimulus checks help create demand during economic downturn, this is a supply based problem (then) that w on become a demand based problem till we are all unemployed (now). 
Agreed completely on the unemployment not being allowed to expire and the shoulder shrug on the disincentive to work. That’s why I like the implicit understanding of “we ain’t changing this but it’s not a big enough problem to care about- lets just incentivize some to go to work because that’s a long term winner for us. That’s smart policy imo. Hope it makes it in. 

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11 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Looks like we might be getting ready for round 2 if the stimulus.  What say you Surly?

Will we have it?

 Should we have it?

How would you do it?

I think we will get another one. my guess is it gets done after some bitching and whining sometime next week  


should we have it?  I think you pretty much have to do something.  The helicopter money seems to make sense as I guess there’s no way inflation happens in my lifetime (I’m a man! I’m 42!) as everyone is scared of deflation (and boy- that shit sounds nasty if that ever came to be) and that money might be what kept blood from running through the streets earlier during the time of the protests.  Also- unemployment benefits got super generous (maybe too generous) compared to normal and That made things workable  

What would you like to see some?  I saw as part of the GOP proposal they wanted to give a $450 weekly bonus (not sure how long that lasts) to everyone that gets a job- I thought that was a good idea.  There’s value and dignity in work that goes beyond the money- so I think it’s good for people to work- if government incentives can help that along- cool.  Anecdotally I talked to the owner of a campsite on my trip and he says he can’t hire anyone because they are making too much to sit home.  
I saw like 5 now hiring signs up here in Maine, in a row, at grocery, fast food and somewhere else- and saw a guy putting Now hiring flyers on the cars- return to work bonus for shitty paying jobs on the frontline of what everyone needs open as essential businesses seems cool.

To that end a thank you from the government to heros might be cool- maybe nurses, fast food workers, grocery store guy, gas station guy, transportation guy that have been deemed essential and faced a lot of fear for low wages could get a thank you/hardship bonus and I wouldn’t be opposed  

also- we need $1 billion for tribal schools.  Just kidding- I have no idea if we need that but I saw the GOP had it in their bill and for the life of me I couldn’t figure out who that’s supposed to benefit politically- seriously that seems out of the blue- anyone got any idea what that’s about? 

 

You should stop being poor and free-loading off the backs of hard working Americans like myself.

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2 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

You should stop being poor and free-loading off the backs of hard working Americans like myself.

Eh, not freeloading. Even with $7800 paid out (if it gets there) I will still be a net tax payer for the year. During 2020 between my portion of SS for myself, employer portion for my employees, and my personal federal taxes I will send 6 figures (barely) up to DC. I look at this as my past and future selves chipping in to help out my present self. 
2018 and 2019 represented my lowest and third lowest earning years of my career. 2020 should be the highest or second highest of my career. Changing careers and going commission and starting a business all takes some time to get traction. 
I can say this- I’m incredibly grateful for the money if it shows up in my account. 

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We should be disincentivizing work that pays less than $600 a week right now anyway. Restaurants, water parks, concert halls, arenas, bars, all non-essential office buildings, etc. should be closed right now.

And it’s not that big a disincentive anyway. A couple of my staff could see it that way, but don’t. Of course, unlike a lot of small businesses we provide health insurance.

It’s been obvious for over a decade that we couldn’t create significant inflation if we tried ... because we’ve tried. That’s because all economic gains continue to go to the wealthy and higher earners, and foreign slave labor keeps shit we buy cheap. Have to change one of those factors before this ship gets righted. Well, that and a vaccine for SARS-Dotus-2. 

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16 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Eh, not freeloading. Even with $7800 paid out (if it gets there) I will still be a net tax payer for the year. During 2020 between my portion of SS for myself, employer portion for my employees, and my personal federal taxes I will send 6 figures (barely) up to DC. I look at this as my past and future selves chipping in to help out my present self. 
2018 and 2019 represented my lowest and third lowest earning years of my career. 2020 should be the highest or second highest of my career. Changing careers and going commission and starting a business all takes some time to get traction. 
I can say this- I’m incredibly grateful for the money if it shows up in my account. 

So to answer your original question; no, you should not get a $3,900 check.  Just like olds that are collecting SS which hasn’t been reduced shouldn’t get a check either.

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18 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

People aren't spending because they have no money and shit's too expensive for them.  So obviously the answer is to make shit more expensive?

Fuck out of here.

How do you think we are making shit more expensive?  Genuine question, I don’t understand your argument. 

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22 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

are you Thomas Friedman?

No, but I stayed in a KOA campground last nigh (last month anyway). That’s where we had that conversation. 
I don’t do a lot of surface conversations. I dig in and ask strangers questions. Combination of intellectual curiosity and being adjacent to the spectrum (and being pretty radically transparent in my own life). 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
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17 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

How do you think we are making shit more expensive?  Genuine question, I don’t understand your argument. 

We haven't yet (except for stupid stuff like food) but the goal for some reason is to inflate which will lead to higher prices.  That sounds like a really stupid idea when 30% of the country missed or is late on another stupid thing called rent and unemployment is in uncharted territory.

If we throw trillions of $'s into the economy and things stay flat or have a slight uptick, maybe we should throw a slightly less amount into the economy to prevent a collapse yet allow prices to come down a manageable amount.  Perhaps that may alleviate a bit of the burden on regular people.

Allow prices to drop a bit until this pandemic thing is done then worry about inflating things.  In other words, go with some stimulus to prevent all out collapse but don't freak out if CPI comes down from current levels because it probably needs to.

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1 hour ago, softlynow said:

We should be disincentivizing work that pays less than $600 a week right now anyway. Restaurants, water parks, concert halls, arenas, bars, all non-essential office buildings, etc. should be closed right now.

And it’s not that big a disincentive anyway. A couple of my staff could see it that way, but don’t. Of course, unlike a lot of small businesses we provide health insurance.

It’s been obvious for over a decade that we couldn’t create significant inflation if we tried ... because we’ve tried. That’s because all economic gains continue to go to the wealthy and higher earners, and foreign slave labor keeps shit we buy cheap. Have to change one of those factors before this ship gets righted. Well, that and a vaccine for SARS-Dotus-2. 

That's about where I'm at too... People shouldn't be putting their lives at risk for peanuts, in addition to facilitating a more hospitable environment for the spread of COVID.

If giving workers $600/wk is socialism, then what the fuck is giving billions to corporations in an ongoing basis?

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9 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

What makes a 17 year old different than a 16 year old who is being claimed as a dependent?  Both are still in HS full time.  It's an arbitrary cutoff that really makes no sense whatsoever.

Roy Moore.

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34 minutes ago, Captainant said:

That's about where I'm at too... People shouldn't be putting their lives at risk for peanuts, in addition to facilitating a more hospitable environment for the spread of COVID.

If giving workers $600/wk is socialism, then what the fuck is giving billions to corporations in an ongoing basis?

National socialism. 

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2 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

People aren't spending because they have no money and shit's too expensive for them.  So obviously the answer is to make shit more expensive?

Fuck out of here.

Odd interpretation of what I said. They have no money because their wages are undercut. If you choose the free trade route (as I would), you aren’t fixing that part of it. So you’d need to fix the other end, which starts with tax policy that rewards companies that build middle class purchasing power and punishes (at least a bit) those who automate and outsource. We have made the worst choice. Arguably worse even than autarky. Even a true laissez faire economy would be better at this point (though it would inevitably evolve back where we are).

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13 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I take your point, but when the government distorts the market and pays people to do nothing it’s a rigged game against the small business owner. That’s not a free market problem my man, that’s a government caused problem- which I think is what the $450 for getting a job does well- it incentivized some to go back to work in a positive way. You can’t just get rid of the enhanced unemployment- because there isn’t enough of these type of jobs to employ everyone- but you don’t want to make those jobs unable to be filled if that makes sense. 
And yes- I’m still a poor. This is year 3 in my new industry new job and I’m killing it, but I imagine that qualification will be what it was before so I will slide in just barely if they use 2019 and comfortably if they use 2018. 

The modern version of the Welfare Cadillac black lady.  

Contrary to what republicans think (since they are wrong about nearly everything).  People like to work.  But working for subsistence wages is not possible for many people.   Especially if that person has kids that would require them to be placed into a daycare facility, and the pay earned from the job is not enough to offset the expenses of working at the job.   

Below is a chart from 2013.  We know this has grown more askew to the right.  Now explain to me why someone in the <70% (arbitrary) should risk their life/health and that of their family to enrich those on the right side of the graph?  Why should someone take a job that costs them money and puts them in harms way?  Why should someone take a job where they basically cannot afford the health care which is stupidly tied to employment and expensive for many, in some cases, more expensive than their wages.  

We have serious fucking flaws here.  Myths and bullshit economics shouldn't be a matter of policy.

wealthdistribution2013.jpg

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14 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

 

unemployment benefits got super generous (maybe too generous)

 

Yeah we just gave a billion dollars to Kodak but the real crime here is that some out of work bartender might get a couple extra hundred bucks a week for a little bit!  Go fuck yourself in your fat face. 

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14 minutes ago, Continental Op said:

Yeah we just gave a billion dollars to Kodak but the real crime here is that some out of work bartender might get a couple extra hundred bucks a week for a little bit!  Go fuck yourself in your fat face. 

That’s certainly the main point I’m making in what I’m saying. Astute job of reading comprehension man. As opposed to me saying- hey- lets keep all the benefits currently going on in place, but even more heavily incentivize those who can/will take one of those jobs. Interesting take man. Thanks for sharing! 

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57 minutes ago, softlynow said:

Odd interpretation of what I said. They have no money because their wages are undercut. If you choose the free trade route (as I would), you aren’t fixing that part of it. So you’d need to fix the other end, which starts with tax policy that rewards companies that build middle class purchasing power and punishes (at least a bit) those who automate and outsource. We have made the worst choice. Arguably worse even than autarky. Even a true laissez faire economy would be better at this point (though it would inevitably evolve back where we are).

I wasn’t referring to your post but rather the widespread idea that if we don’t inflate asset prices then everything is doomed.

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3 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I wasn’t referring to your post but rather the widespread idea that if we don’t inflate asset prices then everything is doomed.

Well shit. Is there a fuck me button?

Edited by softlynow
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3 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I wasn’t referring to your post but rather the widespread idea that if we don’t inflate asset prices then everything is doomed.

I think more pressing at this point is the need to slow the deflationary effects of horrendous unemployment. The economic system does not work with widespread unemployment 

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18 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I take your point, but when the government distorts the market and pays people to do nothing it’s a rigged game against the small business owner. That’s not a free market problem my man, that’s a government caused problem- which I think is what the $450 for getting a job does well- it incentivized some to go back to work in a positive way. You can’t just get rid of the enhanced unemployment- because there isn’t enough of these type of jobs to employ everyone- but you don’t want to make those jobs unable to be filled if that makes sense. 
And yes- I’m still a poor. This is year 3 in my new industry new job and I’m killing it, but I imagine that qualification will be what it was before so I will slide in just barely if they use 2019 and comfortably if they use 2018. 

Yeah that's not why employees get paid shit wages at entry level jobs. I mean, in theory, sure. But these are some of the same businesses that were paying minimum wage or close to it before the shit storm. What's their excuse now? 

The fact is that when you treat labor (financially speaking) as expendables, they'll constantly keep a wondering eye out like someone stuck in a bad relationship. There's no loyalty at ~$9-10. Sorry. You pay people a livable wage and you'd be surprised at how little turnover you get. 

And before anyone tries to lay into the whole "you just don't understand how..." I've already lived it owning a flooring company paying my lowest laborers $15/hr (demo crew) with all the hours they could ask for, plus gas reimbursement for jobsite travel. Never had a problem with any of my crews. Sure, my margins took a little hit but my outlook was on growth.

Worked out great if not for doing the truly stupid thing-- getting in business with and entrusting a fucking aggy. /rant

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15 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

There is a lot of room in pipeline. The Phillips Curve is not working as expected. brrrrting not causing inflation. We need starter fluid in the carb, not more gas in the tank. Most Americans reside in the carburetor. When that engine is running smooth, the carburetor works like a champ. Rocket fuel. 

demand collapsing tends to do that. 

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41 minutes ago, BigHorn'13 said:

Yeah that's not why employees get paid shit wages at entry level jobs. I mean, in theory, sure. But these are some of the same businesses that were paying minimum wage or close to it before the shit storm. What's their excuse now? 

The fact is that when you treat labor (financially speaking) as expendables, they'll constantly keep a wondering eye out like someone stuck in a bad relationship. There's no loyalty at ~$9-10. Sorry. You pay people a livable wage and you'd be surprised at how little turnover you get. 

And before anyone tries to lay into the whole "you just don't understand how..." I've already lived it owning a flooring company paying my lowest laborers $15/hr (demo crew) with all the hours they could ask for, plus gas reimbursement for jobsite travel. Never had a problem with any of my crews. Sure, my margins took a little hit but my outlook was on growth.

Worked out great if not for doing the truly stupid thing-- getting in business with and entrusting a fucking aggy. /rant

I don’t know where this is coming from as a reply to my post, It doesn’t seem topical unless you want to connect the dots for me. 
I’ve never paid anyone less than a living wage in my entire career operating a business. My entry level people (receptionist) started at 25 a year with a bump to 30k at 6 months and 36k at 12 months if they work out. 
I pay my part time 20 year old 15 an hour- as much as she wants to work. 
However- if the government is paying 30k a year to sit at home most of them are going to take that option, and I don’t blame them at all. 

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28 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I don’t know where this is coming from as a reply to my post, It doesn’t seem topical unless you want to connect the dots for me. 
I’ve never paid anyone less than a living wage in my entire career operating a business. My entry level people (receptionist) started at 25 a year with a bump to 30k at 6 months and 36k at 12 months if they work out. 
I pay my part time 20 year old 15 an hour- as much as she wants to work. 
However- if the government is paying 30k a year to sit at home most of them are going to take that option, and I don’t blame them at all. 

I was referring to your campsite guy anecdote and your subsequent reply that the government may influence people's decision to work or not (unemployment.) Wasn't meant to be a personal attack or anything, just saying you're off base. Plus, name one entry level job (one that requires no previous work history or specific education) that pays salary. It's a big difference. Those places you saw that advertised employment, I'd bet my last dollar, is one of those jobs that pays $10/hr. at best starting out. They'll continue to need help because they're too stupid to realize the need to invest in people as well as their business. 

16 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

He said living wage. A single person can live on $25K per year (not super comfortably or extravagantly, but they can live on it), depending on the locality. You can live on $25K in Omaha. You can't live on $25K in San Francisco.

This is a good point as well. My company was in Houston and served pretty much all of SE Texas. $15 an hour isn't baller status by any means, but none of my guys were on food stamps either. In California, I'd put it somewhere in the 20s depending on the area. 

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