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San Antonio Spurs 2020 Offseason Thread -- What is this Lottery Shit?

Patrick Bateman

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Hate

Hate 20108

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That may not be as crazy as it seems. I don’t see it happening, but Pop could hand over the reigns on the young Spurs to whomever the heir apparent is and he goes to the Nets at one last shot at some titles coaching Durant and Irving. I don’t think it will happen, but i wouldn’t put that chances at zero.

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Patrick Bateman

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43 minutes ago, dingleberryswitzer said:

What do either of those teams have that the spurs want? 

Salary relief.  Picks.  Miami has some lotto tickets like Derrick Jones (although going to be a UFA) or a rotational guy like Duncan Robinson.  Always do a 3 way trade, but we fucked our chicken when it came to maximizing value for them, although DD with an expiring and playing well in the bubble may get something of value along with a first round pick.

Portland has a guy like Nassir Little or Skal Labriesse and draft picks.   Not a lot.  But again, we're in rebuild and those guys don't fit....

 

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ztejas

ztejas 43452

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9 minutes ago, dingleberryswitzer said:

I'm not sure they want to turn over their roster for some expensive former all stars.  I dont see them being traded to those teams. 

Okay well that's not what was reported. Unless you're more in touch than someone who does this for a living. 

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Kermit

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Sure, but are LA and DeMar those pieces? Honestly, I’d love to see them back just to see what the small lineup looks like with LA at the five, but they’re not going to get anyone over the hump. We’re definitely not getting Herro, or any player worth a shit from either team. I guess if there’s a trade, the tankathon is on (a couple of years too late, but whatever).

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Patrick Bateman

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54 minutes ago, dingleberryswitzer said:

Portland and miami are playoff teams, I'm not sure they want to turn over their roster for some expensive former all stars.  I dont see them being traded to those teams.  Now a trade to someone else and buyout, sure.  Or just a plain buyout mid season.  

Portland was a sub .500 club who just went 1 and done again.  They're probably not going to be able to afford to bring back Whiteside so they could use another big man.  Not saying they'd want to bring back LMA, but they're pretty much in mediocre purgatory and Dame wants to win.... they may get a bit desperate to get someone who can help next year on an expiring rather than draft someone in the teens who may need to develop.

Miami's is different but may be Portland 2019.  A good team who's overachieving in the playoffs and not really a true contender despite some playoff success.  Miami would be one and done in the West.  Again, not saying they'd be interested but I don't think we should count them out either.

 

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BradInATX

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I'd be fine not getting anything for LA and DD just to get them off the books. Rip the band-aid off. Keep building the young core that played well in the bubble, hope we hit on our first lottery pick in two decades, and be smart in free agency. If just one of the young bucks can be developed into a true all-star type player (my money is on D White or Lonnie) this team can be back to being a playoff mainstay by 2022. The West is going to be even more difficult next year. I doubt we will make the playoffs even if we retain DD and LA. At least with them gone Pop will be forced to give the young guys some run.

I doubt we'd get Tyler Herro for DD in a trade with Miami. As someone else mentioned we'd be fortunate just to get Duncan Robinson (who actually fills a huge need). We're not going to get anyone notable in a trade for either guy. They are both overpriced, antiquated assets on the downside of their careers. What we get back for those guys is $50mm/year in salary cap relief (or whatever it is), which is more valuable than their combined basketball contributions.

I'm not even convinced the team isn't better purely as-is without the two of them. The Spurs played pretty damned well in the bubble, and played a style much more conducive to the modern NBA.

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Horn of Gabriel

Horn of Gabriel 1614

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I'd be fine not getting anything for LA and DD just to get them off the books. Rip the band-aid off. Keep building the young core that played well in the bubble, hope we hit on our first lottery pick in two decades, and be smart in free agency. If just one of the young bucks can be developed into a true all-star type player (my money is on D White or Lonnie) this team can be back to being a playoff mainstay by 2022. The West is going to be even more difficult next year. I doubt we will make the playoffs even if we retain DD and LA. At least with them gone Pop will be forced to give the young guys some run.
I doubt we'd get Tyler Herro for DD in a trade with Miami. As someone else mentioned we'd be fortunate just to get Duncan Robinson (who actually fills a huge need). We're not going to get anyone notable in a trade for either guy. They are both overpriced, antiquated assets on the downside of their careers. What we get back for those guys is $50mm/year in salary cap relief (or whatever it is), which is more valuable than their combined basketball contributions.
I'm not even convinced the team isn't better purely as-is without the two of them. The Spurs played pretty damned well in the bubble, and played a style much more conducive to the modern NBA.


Just not sure I get the logic...we dump DD and LMA for ...not much....on the long shot roll of the dice on a low lottery pick, and hope to develop White and Lonnie into...something as good or better than DD/LMA? I’m not sure their ceilings are much higher than what we’ve got.

The biggest problem Spurs have right now is not who to trade where. It’s unrealistic fan expectations. We are in NBA purgatory and will be for years. Just good enough to occasionally edge a low playoff seed and round 1 exit, not bad enough to get an impactful lottery pick. And not enough intangibles to attract free agents like in Los Angeles.

We need to change our expectations. Spurs will be a mid to bottom of the West team for 5-7 years minimum. Or go full Process and tank, which means Pop is out.

It ain’t pretty what it is what it is. Watch the Spurs for nostalgia and remember our rings fondly. I doubt we will see more soon.
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BradInATX

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16 hours ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

 


Just not sure I get the logic...we dump DD and LMA for ...not much....on the long shot roll of the dice on a low lottery pick, and hope to develop White and Lonnie into...something as good or better than DD/LMA? I’m not sure their ceilings are much higher than what we’ve got.

The biggest problem Spurs have right now is not who to trade where. It’s unrealistic fan expectations. We are in NBA purgatory and will be for years. Just good enough to occasionally edge a low playoff seed and round 1 exit, not bad enough to get an impactful lottery pick. And not enough intangibles to attract free agents like in Los Angeles.

We need to change our expectations. Spurs will be a mid to bottom of the West team for 5-7 years minimum. Or go full Process and tank, which means Pop is out.

It ain’t pretty what it is what it is. Watch the Spurs for nostalgia and remember our rings fondly. I doubt we will see more soon.

 

You dump LMA and DD for cap space to re-sign whichever of the young guys shows out, and to sign a max free agent or a couple of upper-mid level guys. I guess if you believe that LA and DD are actually significant net positives to the team, then what I'm saying makes no sense. But I think the team is probably as good, if not better, without them. They are both terrible fits for the modern NBA.

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Horn of Gabriel

Horn of Gabriel 1614

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1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

You dump LMA and DD for cap space to re-sign whichever of the young guys shows out, and to sign a max free agent or a couple of upper-mid level guys. I guess if you believe that LA and DD are actually significant net positives to the team, then what I'm saying makes no sense. But I think the team is probably as good, if not better, without them. They are both terrible fits for the modern NBA.

I just see a max FA as a route to forever purgatory.  Today's NBA you need several legit all-stars to compete.  We get a FA all-star and maybe DeJonte?  He'd have to play at a much higher level than he showed in the bubble.  White and Lonnie are marginal all-stars at best IMO.  I'd rather go full Process at this point, keep DeJonte, dump LMA and DD, trade one of Lonnie or White (probably Lonnie), retire Pop and he can do front office if he wants or go drink wine all day.  Then shoot for bottom of the West and get a lottery pick that's actually useful.  Better to eat a shit sandwich for several years than to drink sewer water for a decade or more.  My $0.02

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BradInATX

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22 minutes ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

I just see a max FA as a route to forever purgatory.  Today's NBA you need several legit all-stars to compete.  We get a FA all-star and maybe DeJonte?  He'd have to play at a much higher level than he showed in the bubble.  White and Lonnie are marginal all-stars at best IMO.  I'd rather go full Process at this point, keep DeJonte, dump LMA and DD, trade one of Lonnie or White (probably Lonnie), retire Pop and he can do front office if he wants or go drink wine all day.  Then shoot for bottom of the West and get a lottery pick that's actually useful.  Better to eat a shit sandwich for several years than to drink sewer water for a decade or more.  My $0.02

Well, yeah, and that's fair. Especially after watching what the team looks like with two max FAs and also with the understanding that we'll probably never win one of those gaudy free agent "competitions" for the top, top tier guys like LeBron and KD have gotten and like Giannis will get next year. I'm not really married any specific vision of what life after DD/LA looks like, I just think it's a waste of time to keep this version of the Spurs going. I also think DD/LA are holding the young guys back and I'd rather watch them win 35 games and develop and play exciting athletic basketball than watch another game of slow, plodding antiquated midrange ball.

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Patrick Bateman

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3 hours ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

I just see a max FA as a route to forever purgatory.  Today's NBA you need several legit all-stars to compete.  We get a FA all-star and maybe DeJonte?  He'd have to play at a much higher level than he showed in the bubble.  White and Lonnie are marginal all-stars at best IMO.  I'd rather go full Process at this point, keep DeJonte, dump LMA and DD, trade one of Lonnie or White (probably Lonnie), retire Pop and he can do front office if he wants or go drink wine all day.  Then shoot for bottom of the West and get a lottery pick that's actually useful.  Better to eat a shit sandwich for several years than to drink sewer water for a decade or more.  My $0.02

Just trying to understand your rationale.  I think I get it, but just clarifying.  You're saying the Spurs need to draft the next foundational star of the franchise, not sign one in UFA or trade for one in an expiring like say Miami just did with Jimmy Butler or Houston did with Harden, correct?  Basically, draft not free agency.  Only use free agency to build around a drafted superstar, right?  If so, I think there's a lot of validity to the strategy for small market teams.  It's very difficult to find a case of a small market team, beyond Cleveland who had a hometown boy, who were able to build via free agency.  Counter argument is UFA is so new that teams haven't fully fleshed out how to build a winning franchise beyond the Lebron method.  There are alternative directions in which to use it, but it is harder, because the mistakes are so amplified and can stay with an organization for years. Then again so can a missed top 3 pick.  In the end, I tend to agree that the Spurs are going to have to hit on the next foundational star in the draft..... we can try UFA, but for a small market, it's much tougher.

 

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Horn of Gabriel

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13 hours ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Just trying to understand your rationale.  I think I get it, but just clarifying.  You're saying the Spurs need to draft the next foundational star of the franchise, not sign one in UFA or trade for one in an expiring like say Miami just did with Jimmy Butler or Houston did with Harden, correct?  Basically, draft not free agency.  Only use free agency to build around a drafted superstar, right?  If so, I think there's a lot of validity to the strategy for small market teams.  It's very difficult to find a case of a small market team, beyond Cleveland who had a hometown boy, who were able to build via free agency.  Counter argument is UFA is so new that teams haven't fully fleshed out how to build a winning franchise beyond the Lebron method.  There are alternative directions in which to use it, but it is harder, because the mistakes are so amplified and can stay with an organization for years. Then again so can a missed top 3 pick.  In the end, I tend to agree that the Spurs are going to have to hit on the next foundational star in the draft..... we can try UFA, but for a small market, it's much tougher.

 

Right - you said it better than I did.  The UFA game is tilted against the Spurs b/c of the media market and other endorsement opportunities available in bigger markets.  Even if we max cap space, if it's a choice between Brooklyn/NYK/LAL/LAC/Miami/Chicago or the Spurs...we lose, and end up holding the bag like we did w/ fucking Morris.  All the evidence from the past decades shows this - we don't get good FA's.  We get back-half-of-his-career LMA, Malik Rose, and Michael Finley.  Now one could argue that we haven't had to compete for FA's at the highest level because we had the core in place, and that's fair.  But looking @ all the small market teams in the NBA, it's a pretty clear trend.  You might get a single diamond who grows into an all star, but it seems like the trend now is that the biggest star FAs have figured out the power they hold and are looking to move in pairs or triplets.  We've never shown the ability to pull that off - no small market has (Cleveland, maybe? If you count Kevin Love?).

What we have shown is the ability to execute the Spurs system and grow talent within it - at least for the bench players and solid one-step-below-All-Star rotational talent.  We have N=1 datapoint of growing talent to All-Star level in Kawhi, I think it's fair to say Pop and team developed him and raised his ceiling far beyond what was foreseen when we was drafted, whereas Duncan was always going to be All-Star talent and I'd argue the same for Manu and Tony.  So we know we can grow up the peripheral players, the question is how do we find the core 2-3 top players.  Trade, FA, or Draft?

Trade - first we don't have anything worth trading. Our top assets are either at the end of their careers (LMA), not a good fit for the modern NBA style (DD), or too early in their career or we can exploit too much potential that we wouldn't get appropriate value back (DeJonte, White, maybe Lonnie).  I see this as zero sum in terms of assets received back, unless we consider it addition by subtraction and are able to dump DD/LMA to free space for...

FA - this is a bad place for the Spurs based on above discussion.  At least for the top tier superstars.  The issue is if we get impatient we might land ONE...but not the 2.5 we actually need to compete in the West.  One superstar like a Giannis is enough to put us in NBA purgatory like where the Bucks are about to be: exit the playoffs early, with shit draft position, repeat.  The other place for FA is to build around the superstar, but the issue here is that you don't want to get complimentary pieces in the FA market until you have your stars in place because otherwise you bring in the wrong stuff and overspend.  Better to hold chips here IMO.

Draft - we have demonstrated success here at all levels.  We just need to get high enough in the draft to get that next star on the cheap first contract.  Once we have that,  you can make a legit play for additional FA or trade pieces to pair them up and our superior development and system can take over.

tl;dr - what you said, but with more words

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BradInATX

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On 9/10/2020 at 10:47 AM, Horn of Gabriel said:

Right - you said it better than I did.  The UFA game is tilted against the Spurs b/c of the media market and other endorsement opportunities available in bigger markets.  Even if we max cap space, if it's a choice between Brooklyn/NYK/LAL/LAC/Miami/Chicago or the Spurs...we lose, and end up holding the bag like we did w/ fucking Morris.  All the evidence from the past decades shows this - we don't get good FA's.  We get back-half-of-his-career LMA, Malik Rose, and Michael Finley.  Now one could argue that we haven't had to compete for FA's at the highest level because we had the core in place, and that's fair.  But looking @ all the small market teams in the NBA, it's a pretty clear trend.  You might get a single diamond who grows into an all star, but it seems like the trend now is that the biggest star FAs have figured out the power they hold and are looking to move in pairs or triplets.  We've never shown the ability to pull that off - no small market has (Cleveland, maybe? If you count Kevin Love?).

What we have shown is the ability to execute the Spurs system and grow talent within it - at least for the bench players and solid one-step-below-All-Star rotational talent.  We have N=1 datapoint of growing talent to All-Star level in Kawhi, I think it's fair to say Pop and team developed him and raised his ceiling far beyond what was foreseen when we was drafted, whereas Duncan was always going to be All-Star talent and I'd argue the same for Manu and Tony.  So we know we can grow up the peripheral players, the question is how do we find the core 2-3 top players.  Trade, FA, or Draft?

Trade - first we don't have anything worth trading. Our top assets are either at the end of their careers (LMA), not a good fit for the modern NBA style (DD), or too early in their career or we can exploit too much potential that we wouldn't get appropriate value back (DeJonte, White, maybe Lonnie).  I see this as zero sum in terms of assets received back, unless we consider it addition by subtraction and are able to dump DD/LMA to free space for...

FA - this is a bad place for the Spurs based on above discussion.  At least for the top tier superstars.  The issue is if we get impatient we might land ONE...but not the 2.5 we actually need to compete in the West.  One superstar like a Giannis is enough to put us in NBA purgatory like where the Bucks are about to be: exit the playoffs early, with shit draft position, repeat.  The other place for FA is to build around the superstar, but the issue here is that you don't want to get complimentary pieces in the FA market until you have your stars in place because otherwise you bring in the wrong stuff and overspend.  Better to hold chips here IMO.

Draft - we have demonstrated success here at all levels.  We just need to get high enough in the draft to get that next star on the cheap first contract.  Once we have that,  you can make a legit play for additional FA or trade pieces to pair them up and our superior development and system can take over.

tl;dr - what you said, but with more words

Great points made here. I disagree with a couple things; Parker owes much of his success to coaching. He was unbelievably raw. Had he gone to a bad franchise or situation he could have flamed out of the league. Manu, I agree with you, not so much.  And don't do my boy Finley dirty like that, he was great for us and played a big part in that title run.

I think the most likely path back to contendership in the next 4-5 years is to hit on a draft pick that turns into a superstar, then supplement with the best of our current crop as well as a couple of supporting cast free agents (the Horry, Barry, Diaw, Finley types). Which is basically what you're saying, I think.

It's a big ask but if anyone can find a superstar without being in the top 5, it's the Spurs.

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Patrick Bateman

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51 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Great points made here. I disagree with a couple things; Parker owes much of his success to coaching. He was unbelievably raw. Had he gone to a bad franchise or situation he could have flamed out of the league. Manu, I agree with you, not so much.  And don't do my boy Finley dirty like that, he was great for us and played a big part in that title run.

I think the most likely path back to contendership in the next 4-5 years is to hit on a draft pick that turns into a superstar, then supplement with the best of our current crop as well as a couple of supporting cast free agents (the Horry, Barry, Diaw, Finley types). Which is basically what you're saying, I think.

It's a big ask but if anyone can find a superstar without being in the top 5, it's the Spurs.

We've done that exactly once.  And he left because we pissed him off.....

We bought Gervin but that was in the ABA.  DRob, 1.1.  Tim Duncan, 1.1.  We've been incredibly lucky because those two guys took us 25+ years back to back, but really we have found a lot of good players outside the top 5, but if the franchise was built around Manu or Tony, then we wouldn't have 5 rings.  

That written, considering where we are and with our All-Stars on the wrong side of 30 with meh contracts, I tend to think we need to draft our next foundational piece.  Yes, fantastic if it's outside the top 5, but we may have to concede that we will have to either get lucky with lottery balls or simply take a year to suck and go totally young.  Why not start now?

 

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angelfacedmongoloid

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23 hours ago, BradInATX said:

Exactly. Let's rip the band-aid off. Trade DD and LA for whatever picks we can get, and let's do the thing.

They're our biggest threat to the future of our franchise right now. Next year Golden State will be back in the playoffs, Phoenix looked like they could be a playoff contender, I don't think we move ahead of any team that was already ahead of us. Rudy Gay will be another year older, Patty will be another year older, they'll both still be here chucking up bricks.

But if we keep Aldridge and Derozan that probably puts us probably in a 30-35 win range which will probably be somewhere from 12th to 14th place in the west , which puts us around 8th in the lottery. Shit, the east had 7 sub-30 win teams this year. If we're going to draft someone to be the star we are going to have to get a higher pick than that.

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dingleberryswitzer

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4 hours ago, Hate said:


Fuck them both. I’m still waiting for the Clippers curse to get kawho. A blown Achilles or Acl will suffice.

He probably sucked in game 7 because his leg isn't used to playing 40 minutes every other day.  He really melted down against a team not known for they're defense.  

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Kermit

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44 minutes ago, Hate said:

I’m so pleased to hear it. I didn’t watch a minute of it and won’t. I’m just happy to know kawho won’t be winning a title this year.

I have a lot of hate built up inside of me with regards to Kawhi, but you take it to another level. How do I get there? 

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Being a Spurs fan for nearly 50 year will do it. Having gone through all of the near misses and collapses only to be rewarded with 20 years of greatness and then to have a possibly transcendent player to continue that legacy turn out to be a petulant petty piece of shit and crater any hopes of continued title chases? I hate that POS more than I have ever hated an athlete including any Texan who has ever played for ou.

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ztejas

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2 hours ago, Hate said:

I’m so pleased to hear it. I didn’t watch a minute of it and won’t. I’m just happy to know kawho won’t be winning a title this year.

It was maybe the biggest 4th quarter ass-kicking in the playoffs I've ever seen. Denver went up like 10 points with 9 minutes to play and the game was fucking over. Then they just kept running it up with their starters on the floor like Bob Stoops trying to backdoor into a BCS bowl. It made what we did to the Heat in 2014 look gentle. They got ran off the court in such embarassing fashion that I kind of felt bad. Then I remembered that Kawhi, Beverly and whichever one of the fuckhead Morris twins all play for them. 

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touchthemonolith

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3 minutes ago, angelfacedmongoloid said:

star wars hate GIF

I don't get all the Kawhi hate at this point tbh. Like it or not, we got like six or seven good years out of Kawhi, a defensive player of the year award, an NBA championship and another Finals appearance. He's a lifelong Spur in my book and I see no reason to still be bitter or laugh at his misfortu

Just kidding--can you imagine? Seriously, fuck Kawhi, fuck his uncle, fuck the city of Los Angeles and fuck the Clippers individually and as an organization.

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Hate 20108

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I don't get all the Kawhi hate at this point tbh. Like it or not, we got like six or seven good years out of Kawhi, a defensive player of the year award, an NBA championship and another Finals appearance. He's a lifelong Spur in my book and I see no reason to still be bitter or laugh at his misfortu
Just kidding--can you imagine? Seriously, fuck Kawhi, fuck his uncle, fuck the city of Los Angeles and fuck the Clippers individually and as an organization.

Man...you got me at first. I was about to neg this post...and I never neg.
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