If Trump Wins and the Senate stays red?

[jimmyjazz 46,479]

Let's play the "what if" game:  what is the range of outcomes we will see here in the US should Trump win and the Senate retain a majority?

One thing is clear:  SCOTUS will surely gain another conservative justice, as there is no reason to believe RBG will hang on until 2024.

 

So, given that, what else?  How far can we slide and still stand a chance of slowing or stopping course in 2022/2024?

I'd like to see more than pure doomsday scenarios.  I'd like to see predictions on actions taken by the 3 branches and how they might be contested, etc.  Thoughts?

[David Dennison 19,121]

If Trump wins, the streets will erupt.

[Fletch 5,802]

I’d guess civil war. We’re definitely stupid enough 

[henrygandorf 29,199]

[ulukinatme 1,765]

I'd expect we'd get a corona-virus vaccine in the next year or so, economy would recover to pre-pandemic levels, all while media and celebrities try to convince us that the country is still falling into pieces.  Trump sustained everything that was thrown at him the first few years, it took a major pandemic to really make him falter.  I expect he'll lose in November though, no President would have come out of this unscathed.  You can't stop a pandemic like this, you can only slow it till a vaccine comes or you achieve herd immunity if possible.     

[ztejas 43,746]

43 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

If Trump wins, the streets will erupt.

Sure they will.

[Buck Strickland 380]

The BLM protests will look like an after church Sunday picnic compared to what will happen if he steals the election

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[TexArcher 38,423]

49 minutes ago, ulukinatme said:

I'd expect we'd get a corona-virus vaccine in the next year or so, economy would recover to pre-pandemic levels, all while media and celebrities try to convince us that the country is still falling into pieces.  Trump sustained everything that was thrown at him the first few years, it took a major pandemic to really make him falter.  I expect he'll lose in November though, no President would have come out of this unscathed.  You can't stop a pandemic like this, you can only slow it till a vaccine comes or you achieve herd immunity if possible.     

Those things will or won't happen regardless of who is in the White House.

[ulukinatme 1,765]

Just now, TexArcher said:

Those things will or won't happen regardless of who is in the White House.

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss....just Tweets less.

[TexArcher 38,423]

25 minutes ago, Buck Strickland said:

The BLM protests will look like an after church Sunday picnic compared to what will happen if he steals the election

Agreed.  If he "wins" again while losing the popular vote or he loses and refuses to leave office (and I can't imagine any other possibility than these two), we're going to a dark place.  Riots in the street escalate and the response is more jackbooted thugs and probably NRA Trumpkins get involved.  I don't even want to think about it.

[GRHorn 105]

They’ll try to find something else to impeach Trump on. Keep people engaged and enraged that way. 

[DaysOff 8,005]

Good luck West Hollywood and Silver Lake. And if it happens I may bid LAX and join you.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

1 hour ago, ulukinatme said:

I'd expect we'd get a corona-virus vaccine in the next year or so, economy would recover to pre-pandemic levels, all while media and celebrities try to convince us that the country is still falling into pieces.  Trump sustained everything that was thrown at him the first few years, it took a major pandemic to really make him falter.  I expect he'll lose in November though, no President would have come out of this unscathed.  You can't stop a pandemic like this, you can only slow it till a vaccine comes or you achieve herd immunity if possible.     

Trump had a very easy 3 years before corona.  He didn’t really have any major crises to deal with and Obama left him an economy with roughly 60-70 months straight of growth.

you could find some guy off the street and make him president and even he would’ve done a good job from 2017-2019. Easiest point in time to lead our country in a very long time.

Edited August 24, 2020 by Voldemort86

[Celery Man 21,027]

1 hour ago, ulukinatme said:

I'd expect we'd get a corona-virus vaccine in the next year or so, economy would recover to pre-pandemic levels, all while media and celebrities try to convince us that the country is still falling into pieces.  Trump sustained everything that was thrown at him the first few years, it took a major pandemic to really make him falter.  I expect he'll lose in November though, no President would have come out of this unscathed.  You can't stop a pandemic like this, you can only slow it till a vaccine comes or you achieve herd immunity if possible.     

Trump had an easy first three years, apart from self inflicted wounds, and it remains to be seen if our country can be repaired. Another 4 years and we're headed toward a "Biff Tannen's Gilead" alt future timeline.

[Doc Sam Beckett 5,807]

11 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

Good luck West Hollywood and Silver Lake. And if it happens I may bid LAX and join you.

Nice try pal, this shit is just like Europe. It's gonna take a large capital investment for California citizenship.....and a quiz! 

[Mrs Whiggins 13,050]

2 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Let's play the "what if" game:  what is the range of outcomes we will see here in the US should Trump win and the Senate retain a majority?

One thing is clear:  SCOTUS will surely gain another conservative justice, as there is no reason to believe RBG will hang on until 2024.

 

So, given that, what else?  How far can we slide and still stand a chance of slowing or stopping course in 2022/2024?

I'd like to see more than pure doomsday scenarios.  I'd like to see predictions on actions taken by the 3 branches and how they might be contested, etc.  Thoughts?

 

Not sure if this is what you had in mind but based on some of the RNC Rules that they adopted this summer (posted by @Francisco 2.0) I think there will be redundancies. The purity test that Trump's people (are you a loyal Trumper) will see more people let go as the administration pushes to consolidate and reduce the 3 letter agencies. Some will cheer this, figuring that is draining the swamp, but I would wager that it's really just making the swamp a sinkhole because any transparency and accountability will be gone baby gone. It's already been placed in the dumpster, but now the truck is coming. Not sure how one would rectify that.

My doomsday scenario would be that after the skirmishes and attacks are over a semblance of drab normalcy takes over and it is the American version of Russia in 2008: Restructuring Without Repopulation (link: https://web.archive.org/web/20110718225335/http://commersant.com/p891024/r_1/Prime_Minister_Vladimir_Putin_government/)

It's perhaps not identical as the governments are not identical, but something along those lines with Congress being further hampered in efforts to maintain any semblance of balance. IOW a sham government with sham elections. I'm not sure there if one can come back from that. When the corruption is throughout the halls, one is sabotaged whenever reform is attempted. And how do you recreate the USDA? The CDC? The FDA, the FCC? Once their regulations have been stripped, it's like herding cats to get that structure back in a sound efficient manner. Sounds grim, but the cynical side is winning tonight.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

More debasement of the country.  You'd have two more years of Trump doing very very unAmerican things and the Senate normalizing it, while the world turns more away from us. 

For stuff wholly within the Executive, you'd see acceleration of corruption.  DOJ attacks on a ton of orgs that seem D friendly.  More agencies working directly against their purpose like EPA turning stuff over to the oil industry and what not.

The GOP party would see there is only upside to embracing Q stuff / racism stuff / pizzagate stuff so anything left that had been acting as a governor on that behavior would be gone.

[Anastasis 23,514]

There is no way Trump wins.

 

But if he did, and dems took control of both House and Senate maybe they take some strong and long overdue measures to constrain executive power.

 

I actually thought in 2016 that the GOP House and Senate would take some moves to pull back power their direction and constrain Trump.  Yeah, that one was a little off.  

[workswithseed 2,140]

1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

There is no way Trump wins.

 

But if he did, and dems took control of both House and Senate maybe they take some strong and long overdue measures to constrain executive power.

 

I actually thought in 2016 that the GOP House and Senate would take some moves to pull back power their direction and constrain Trump.  Yeah, that one was a little off.  

If this happens, that seems like the best way way to do it. 

[Bookman 4,727]

I would support splitting the country.

[High Plains Drifter 11,057]

 

If California leaves, y'all think dOTarD and the Magat cult will sit back and do nothing? It would be a literal civil war.

Other states would follow, the country crumbles.

World wide economic collapse.

Civilization falls.

Cities burn, massive famine.

10 years out, world wide population < 1 billion, and falling.

 

Thanks Obama!

[Mrs Whiggins 13,050]

What starts with a tan suit, changes the world? That does sound like a platform the GOP would support. 

Edited August 25, 2020 by Mrs Whiggins
Edit-the assumption being that the UT motto is change the world for good, the GOP believes that tan suits and the person who wore one is an affront to the world.

[SydneyCarton 48,314]

Yeah. As fun as it is to fantasize, just like Texas seceding, The actual fight over economic resources would be a certainty. State and federal resources go into farming, so who gets the last crop? Oh, you want the National oil reserve back? Possession is 9/10ths isn’t gonna fly. 

[mchookem 16,527]

given the last week, i'm guessing we could all kiss social security goodbye for good. so that'll happen. 

[Fastbreak 3,996]

If he wins, I’m going to meet Biggs at Tosche Station and join the Rebel Alliance. 

[jimmyjazz 46,479]

1 hour ago, mchookem said:

given the last week, i'm guessing we could all kiss social security goodbye for good. so that'll happen. 

Well, the "good news" there (ha) is that SS benefits overwhelmingly flow from payroll taxes, so reversing such a stupid policy would not be impossible.

Of course, getting the people into office who would reverse it might be impossible.

The bad news is that SS isn't projected to run a surplus ever again, meaning that without the reserve fund, payroll taxes and other minor sources of income will not be sufficient to cover benefits going forward.  The implication there is that, should Trump & Co. raid the rest of the $3T reserve fund, restarting the system would force a reduction in benefits or an increase in payroll taxes compared to current standards.

['stache 21,910]

I'll seriously consider moving to Canada, if they'll have me. This country will never fully recover.

[wildcat09 29,453]

2 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I'll seriously consider moving to Canada, if they'll have me. This country will never fully recover.

Esto. If we get 4 more years of Trump, what's left of America at the end will be unrecognizable to any version of us from before 2014 or so. The courts will not save us.

[David Dennison 19,121]

3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Well, the "good news" there (ha) is that SS benefits overwhelmingly flow from payroll taxes, so reversing such a stupid policy would not be impossible.

Of course, getting the people into office who would reverse it might be impossible.

The bad news is that SS isn't projected to run a surplus ever again, meaning that without the reserve fund, payroll taxes and other minor sources of income will not be sufficient to cover benefits going forward.  The implication there is that, should Trump & Co. raid the rest of the $3T reserve fund, restarting the system would force a reduction in benefits or an increase in payroll taxes compared to current standards.

Income that is taxed for SS purposes is currently limited to the first $137,000. Eliminating the limit completely would be a good start.

[SydneyCarton 48,314]

6 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I'll seriously consider moving to Canada, if they'll have me. This country will never fully recover.

Better start that process now. Getting citizenship to Canada is a long, difficult process and generally it's pretty fucking expensive. I believe you're going to have to cut them a check for several hundred thousands right off the bat. 

[FondrenRoad 4,378]

On 8/23/2020 at 7:46 PM, Buck Strickland said:

The BLM protests will look like an after church Sunday picnic compared to what will happen if he steals the election

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This, but also states, starting with California, will test the secession waters.  The states that provide nearly all federal tax revenue have been told to fuck off when it comes to federal aid just because they vote blue. Well, they are going to actually fuck off.

So yeah, Civil War 2.  Maybe.  If the west coast, east coast, and several other states secede, who is going to stop them?  Who even controls the US military at that point?  The rank and file arent going to start shelling their home cities.

And also Esper is from PA. Norquist from MA.  Milley from MA.  McConville from MA.  Gilday from MA.  Brown from TX but he is African American so probably not a Trump stater. Berger from DE.

Think these guys are gonna shell Boston?  I guess they can be swapped out for several Cletii, but most military leadership is going to go with the seceding states if the shit hits the fan.

[NameAlreadyInUse 5,138]

 Gotta say, if that happens, it's clear that my values don't match the values of my country any longer.  That would be depressing. 

[FondrenRoad 4,378]

38 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I'll seriously consider moving to Canada, if they'll have me. This country will never fully recover.

They aren't gonna have us. Need to do that type of thing while your passport has value, and not when you are fleeing a failed state with 100s of 1000s of other refugees at the same time.

Glad I have the ability to live in Europe if I need to.

 

[FondrenRoad 4,378]

34 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Better start that process now. Getting citizenship to Canada is a long, difficult process and generally it's pretty fucking expensive. I believe you're going to have to cut them a check for several hundred thousands right off the bat. 

Will our new Trump currency be convertible to the Canadian dollar?

[Bateshorn 9,959]

On 8/23/2020 at 8:12 PM, ulukinatme said:

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss....just Tweets less.

Shit’s all borked, right?  Why vote?

[MC Fresh Breath 4,074]

There will be no secession, good lord.  

['stache 21,910]

4 minutes ago, MC Fresh Breath said:

There will be no secession, good lord.  

I mean, if the trumpists keep winning elections with fewer votes than the democrat candidates, something's gotta give eventually, right? If our country continues to circle the drain with Wyoming having as much power in the Senate as fucking California, and an overweighted vote per person for the presidency, I just don't see how shit doesn't hit the fan at some point. And wouldn't the trumpists like to get rid of librul 'ol California? Then they could stop them from moving to Texas, right? Isn't that all the bitching and moaning these days?

Edited August 25, 2020 by 'stache

[FondrenRoad 4,378]

1 minute ago, MC Fresh Breath said:

There will be no secession, good lord.  

If Trump steals the election?  Of course there will be.  Hardly anything holds this nation together anymore anyway.  Perhaps you haven't noticed, but we hate each other.  And fucking Rush Limbaugh has a medal of freedom. Do you want to live in a nation that awards medals to guys like that? 

And economically, why would CA keep paying taxes to the fed without any return?  You think that is sustainable?  You do know why they threw the tea into the sea, right?  For exactly that reason.

[David Dennison 19,121]

1 minute ago, FondrenRoad said:

If Trump steals the election?  Of course there will be.  Hardly anything holds this nation together anymore anyway.  Perhaps you haven't noticed, but we hate each other.  And fucking Rush Limbaugh has a medal of freedom. Do you want to live in a nation that awards medals to guys like that? 

And economically, why would CA keep paying taxes to the fed without any return?  You think that is sustainable?  You do know why they threw the tea into the sea, right?  For exactly that reason.

All of the ports will be immediately blockaded and California will be isolated from the rest of the world by military force.

So that's what would happen first.

[CooterBrown 18,094]

Better start that process now. Getting citizenship to Canada is a long, difficult process and generally it's pretty fucking expensive. I believe you're going to have to cut them a check for several hundred thousands right off the bat. 

There’s always the college graduate loophole if you’re interested in another degree. Graduate from a Canadian college and you get a 3 year residency/work permit. At the end of that permit you can request being fast tracked for citizenship, skipping the usual red tape. I don’t know if there’s an age limit or if it applies to a 4-year degree only.

There’s also a quick process in Quebec that if you invest a certain amount or start a business, you can be fast tracked also.

[BrickHorn 18,325]

2 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

All of the ports will be immediately blockaded and California will be isolated from the rest of the world by military force.

So that's what would happen first.

And add to that the fact that outside of its urban centers, California is relatively red. If California secedes, it will be fighting both externally and internally.

I don’t think people appreciate how messy a Civil War 2 would be. 

[TwiceHorn 31,686]

3 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

And add to that the fact that outside of its urban centers, California is relatively red. If California secedes, it will be fighting both externally and internally.

I don’t think people appreciate how messy a Civil War 2 would be. 

Yep, so very few states are monolithic and those that are are rural and red. 

There are no clean division lines.  The big population states, including Texas, are blue to purple in big cities and red everywhere else.  

[MC Fresh Breath 4,074]

18 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I mean, if the trumpists keep winning elections with fewer votes than the democrat candidates, something's gotta give eventually, right? If our country continues to circle the drain with Wyoming having as much power in the Senate as fucking California, and an overweighted vote per person for the presidency, I just don't see how shit doesn't hit the fan at some point. And wouldn't the trumpists like to get rid of librul 'ol California? Then they could stop them from moving to Texas, right? Isn't that all the bitching and moaning these days?

 

Trump isn't the first R even recently to lose the popular vote and  win the electoral college.  Can't even get rid of the EC and now somehow there is going to be an organized secession?  Sorry, but that's just fantasy.  

I do think there is going to be sporadic violence either way, btw.  But there will be no serious secession talk by anyone with power to make such a thing happen. 

 

[gmr548 16,641]

We'll fully complete the devolution to third world country.

[dingleberryswitzer 2,724]

38 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

They aren't gonna have us. Need to do that type of thing while your passport has value, and not when you are fleeing a failed state with 100s of 1000s of other refugees at the same time.

Glad I have the ability to live in Europe if I need to.

 

Does Canada have a wall?  

[MC Fresh Breath 4,074]

24 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

If Trump steals the election?  Of course there will be.  Hardly anything holds this nation together anymore anyway.  Perhaps you haven't noticed, but we hate each other.  And fucking Rush Limbaugh has a medal of freedom. Do you want to live in a nation that awards medals to guys like that? 

And economically, why would CA keep paying taxes to the fed without any return?  You think that is sustainable?  You do know why they threw the tea into the sea, right?  For exactly that reason.

Sorry dude, but this reminds me a lot of the guy on the other side of the fence talking Texas secession during the Obama years.  

Its fantasy at best.  And are you actually suggesting states pay federal taxes  based on a rate of return?  See, when even the very basic principles aren't understood, it gets much more difficult to take this kind of talk as anything but internet fantasy.  

Just so many ways to attack that line of thinking.  But I'll go here--you've certainly heard of Silicon Valley?  Do big tech corporations lean towards secession in your opinion?  Do other corporations?  Now step back a little further and ask yourself who really wins if Trump wins again?  Who controls this country?  Think hard about that one.   I'm sure some militia somewhere or some subreddit will chat it up, but no way secession happens.  

Edited August 25, 2020 by MC Fresh Breath
"federal" vs "state"

[gmr548 16,641]

And add to that the fact that outside of its urban centers, California is relatively red. If California secedes, it will be fighting both externally and internally.
I don’t think people appreciate how messy a Civil War 2 would be. 

I don't think there'd be a civil war. The two sides do not see each other as worth fighting for.

[dingleberryswitzer 2,724]

19 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

All of the ports will be immediately blockaded and California will be isolated from the rest of the world by military force.

So that's what would happen first.

You don't think another country (cough China) would be willing to provide some assistant in exchange for some  beneficial trade and immigration deals? 

 

[BrickHorn 18,325]

7 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

There are no clean division lines.  The big population states, including Texas, are blue to purple in big cities and red everywhere else.

Exactly. The Blue side would be isolated in urban islands surrounded by a sea of Red.

 

1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

16 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

And add to that the fact that outside of its urban centers, California is relatively red. If California secedes, it will be fighting both externally and internally.
I don’t think people appreciate how messy a Civil War 2 would be. 

I don't think there'd be a civil war. The two sides do not see each other as worth fighting for.

How does that work? California secedes, and you think the giant red chunk in the eastern part of the state just says “Okay. Guess we’re going with those coastal hippies we hate so much.”? Or would the urban centers be willing to leave the vast agricultural land / strategic buffer to the Reds?

If there’s any kind of secession, there will be civil war. There may be civil war anyway, but secession would certainly kick one off.

[Biff Tannen 45,769]

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

Better start that process now. Getting citizenship to Canada is a long, difficult process and generally it's pretty fucking expensive. I believe you're going to have to cut them a check for several hundred thousands right off the bat. 

They have an express entry program if you are a skilled worker. Not citizenship, but a way to get in the country at least.