If Trump Wins and the Senate stays red?

[DaysOff 7959]

Better start that process now. Getting citizenship to Canada is a long, difficult process and generally it's pretty fucking expensive. I believe you're going to have to cut them a check for several hundred thousands right off the bat. 

https://allhod.com/parent-born-in-canada/

 

Ha. My mother was born in Saskatchewan and left after nursing school for Houston. Guess I'm eligible (my sister got a Canadian passport).

 

Of course said mother is now 80 with FNC on 24/7 screaming about how our cities are war zones.

 

[Herpa Derpa 6126]

Canada will build a wall to stem the flow of illegal immigration from the despotic hellhole to the south of them.

[Neonmoon 38129]

[Continental Op 3934]

1 hour ago, MC Fresh Breath said:

There will be no secession, good lord.  

Exactly.  Anyone saying states will be allowed to secede are being ludicrous just like people who thought Texas was going to secede during the Obama years were idiots.  I'm sure the US is just going to say "LOL, OK!  See ya later, Jet Propulsion Lab and all the other shit in California we like!" and let the state waltz off into the sunset.  Trump sucks but none of the states are going anywhere.  

Edited August 25, 2020 by Continental Op

[CooterBrown 18015]

50 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Yep, so very few states are monolithic and those that are are rural and red. 

There are no clean division lines.  The big population states, including Texas, are blue to purple in big cities and red everywhere else.  

We should just evolve into a bunch of city-states like Singapore.  We can just have economic and social contracts for business and travel between like city-states.  Fuck the rural areas. They want freedom? Give them freedom from any type of economic growth and higher education and let them support themselves. 

Edited August 25, 2020 by CooterBrown

[jimmyjazz 45997]

Secession is a non-starter.  It would of course kick off a violent civil war.  Not gonna happen.

I'd like to see a study of %blue / %red on a state by state basis.  I can't imagine there are many states that are largely blue -- perhaps some of the small east coast states that are largely urban.  Other than that, nope.  On the other hand, plenty of the wild west states are surely heavily red.  I'm not talking 55/45, I'm talking 90/10.

[gmr548 16588]

How does that work? California secedes, and you think the giant red chunk in the eastern part of the state just says “Okay. Guess we’re going with those coastal hippies we hate so much.”? Or would the urban centers be willing to leave the vast agricultural land / strategic buffer to the Reds?

If there’s any kind of secession, there will be civil war. There may be civil war anyway, but secession would certainly kick one off.

No one is seceding. But if CA actually did, people red and blue would leave in droves.

 

[gmr548 16588]

Secession is a non-starter.  It would of course kick off a violent civil war.  Not gonna happen.
I'd like to see a study of %blue / %red on a state by state basis.  I can't imagine there are many states that are largely blue -- perhaps some of the small east coast states that are largely urban.  Other than that, nope.  On the other hand, plenty of the wild west states are surely heavily red.  I'm not talking 55/45, I'm talking 90/10.

California, for it's size, is pretty incredibly blue. It's like 2 to 1. In a state of 40+mm that's pretty crazy. That's as hard of a partisan lean as you'll find anywhere. Some mountain west/sec states replicate that the other way, but I don't think there's anywhere that breaks down 70-30 or more. Maybe Utah pre-Trump.

[SydneyCarton 48124]

1 hour ago, CooterBrown said:

There’s always the college graduate loophole if you’re interested in another degree. Graduate from a Canadian college and you get a 3 year residency/work permit. At the end of that permit you can request being fast tracked for citizenship, skipping the usual red tape. I don’t know if there’s an age limit or if it applies to a 4-year degree only.

There’s also a quick process in Quebec that if you invest a certain amount or start a business, you can be fast tracked also.

Right, that's what I meant by cutting a big check. I also think you have to cut an additional big check to pay into their healthcare/benefits system. You just don't show up and get it for free. 

[SydneyCarton 48124]

Also, this seems like an excellent time to point out to everyone that FondrenRoad has a history of coming completely unhinged in manners that sometime resemble breaks from reality, and he'll stay down these rabbit holes like a cocaine addled asteroid hurtling towards the gravitational pull that is our poor, unfortunate, threads. 

[Todd Gack 432]

1 hour ago, Herpa Derpa said:

Canada will build a wall to stem the flow of illegal immigration from the despotic hellhole to the south of them.

And trump's America will pay for it.

[FondrenRoad 4378]

1 hour ago, MC Fresh Breath said:

Sorry dude, but this reminds me a lot of the guy on the other side of the fence talking Texas secession during the Obama years.  

Its fantasy at best.  And are you actually suggesting states pay federal taxes  based on a rate of return?  See, when even the very basic principles aren't understood, it gets much more difficult to take this kind of talk as anything but internet fantasy.  

Just so many ways to attack that line of thinking.  But I'll go here--you've certainly heard of Silicon Valley?  Do big tech corporations lean towards secession in your opinion?  Do other corporations?  Now step back a little further and ask yourself who really wins if Trump wins again?  Who controls this country?  Think hard about that one.   I'm sure some militia somewhere or some subreddit will chat it up, but no way secession happens.  

I am saying that Trump isn't Obama. He isn't Bush either.  He is the type of ruler that collapses nations. A self interested narcissist who cares nothing about governance.  Trump openly acknowledged withholding federal aid due to state voting trends.  If CA is on its own to provide covid relief to its residents, then why should CA residents pay federal taxes knowing that they are explicitly excluded from receiving anything back?  This isn't a handful of militiamen bitching.  If CA put secession to a referendum, it would pass right now. I suppose that isn't just because of Trump, but he has certainly pushed it over the edge.  They've been told for quite a while that they aren't real "Americans" in spite of being our nation's most populous state.

A union must provide value for it to work. In your opinion, does the USA currently provide value for California residents? It certainly used to. But does it now?  And really, does the US provide value to the residents of any states at this point?  Its still built around the idea that we need to universally defend ourselves against some strong external power. It needs to be built on internal unity and governance or else it is unneeded and detrimental.

Big tech companies would prefer to be stateless. They will likely have access to all markets anyway. They do typically prefer liberal social ideals, so much so that they aggregate in high tax locations even while they likely prefer low or not taxes.  Regardless, SV will go with California if it goes, and they'll pillage the dergulated poor states.

I guess you think we can be led by q anon and Gaetz as well, and wealthy states will keep on hanging around just because thats what they always did before?  Nations more unified than us have failed.  At one point, this one will too.  The RNC is picking leaders almost designed to insure it happens.

[FondrenRoad 4378]

2 hours ago, David Dennison said:

All of the ports will be immediately blockaded and California will be isolated from the rest of the world by military force.

So that's what would happen first.

Blockaded by whom?  I guess you're assuming the northeast and pacific northwest are gonna stick around if Cali wants out?

This board loves Lee. Who did Lee work for before the South seceded?

I guess the disconnect here is that many of you believe that the remaining states would be the "USA" if states containing more than half our population, and our nation's capital, seceded.  It would be more of a "kick out" scenario.  The military would split if it did anything at all about it.

Edited August 25, 2020 by FondrenRoad

[BrickHorn 18253]

46 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

Secession is a non-starter.  It would of course kick off a violent civil war.  Not gonna happen.
I'd like to see a study of %blue / %red on a state by state basis.  I can't imagine there are many states that are largely blue -- perhaps some of the small east coast states that are largely urban.  Other than that, nope.  On the other hand, plenty of the wild west states are surely heavily red.  I'm not talking 55/45, I'm talking 90/10.

Read more  

California, for it's size, is pretty incredibly blue. It's like 2 to 1. In a state of 40+mm that's pretty crazy. That's as hard of a partisan lean as you'll find anywhere. Some mountain west/sec states replicate that the other way, but I don't think there's anywhere that breaks down 70-30 or more. Maybe Utah pre-Trump.

By geography, it’s basically 50/50:

 

[David Dennison 18938]

4 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Blockaded by whom?  I guess you're assuming the northeast and pacific northwest are gonna stick around if Cali wants out?

This board loves Lee. Who did Lee work for before the South seceded?

I guess the disconnect here is that many of you believe that the remaining states would be the "USA" if states containing more than half our population, and our nation's capital, seceded.  It would be more of a "kick out" scenario.  The military would split if it did anything at all about it.

The northeast and the pacific northwest can do whatever they want. The United States military will block all of their ports. 

[BrickHorn 18253]

17 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Blockaded by whom?  I guess you're assuming the northeast and pacific northwest are gonna stick around if Cali wants out?

This board loves Lee. Who did Lee work for before the South seceded?

I guess the disconnect here is that many of you believe that the remaining states would be the "USA" if states containing more than half our population, and our nation's capital, seceded.  It would be more of a "kick out" scenario.  The military would split if it did anything at all about it.

A civil war would fracture the country into shards. The northeast and Pacific coast are the only segments that could be counted on to settle into something resembling the liberal democracy of the pre-Trump US. Every other region would either be overrun by MAGA types and Christian dominionists (the Deep South, the Appalachians, the rust belt, Texas, the Big 8 region, the mountain states) or would be at best a toss-up between normal folks and alt right assholes (the upper Midwest, the mid-Atlantic).

Most of us on this board would find ourselves abandoned deep within MAGA / Q jihadist territory with no safe way out. Austin, Dallas, and Houston are blue islands in a vast sea of red.

Edited August 25, 2020 by BrickHorn

[FondrenRoad 4378]

1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

The northeast and the pacific northwest can do whatever they want. The United States military will block all of their ports. 

Again, who are the United States in this scenario?  Where do the leaders and soldiers in this United States military come from?

Also, why do you think that other countries are going to stay entirely out of it?  Do you believe that the Remaining States military is going to shoot passenger airplanes out of the sky?  If they do, do you think this will have no effect on internal security inside the Remaining States, that it will also not bring China, Russia, and Europe into the arena?

But yeah, sure, we are gonna get led by Trump, Trump Jr, Gaetz, then several Q anon acolytes for decades.  All while they intentionally destroy the things that actually unify us, and generally bleed us dry.  Just because the USA has to stay together or something.   That's Roman talk.

Hell, the only real fight may be over who gets to keep the name USA.

[Herpa Derpa 6126]

3 hours ago, David Dennison said:

All of the ports will be immediately blockaded and California will be isolated from the rest of the world by military force.

So that's what would happen first.

No.  The rest of the world would recognize the Republic of California and begin treaty negotiations. It is the technology center of our nation.  That is the current capital that matters in the current world.

[SydneyCarton 48124]

Just stopping back in to tell you motherfuckers that I called it. I'm going to go celebrate by dislocating my shoulder patting myself on the back. That's less painful than whats happening on this thread. 

On one hand:

 

But on the other:

 

Edited August 25, 2020 by SydneyCarton

[David Dennison 18938]

2 minutes ago, Herpa Derpa said:

No.  The rest of the world would recognize the Republic of California and begin treaty negotiations. It is the technology center of our nation.  That is the current capital that matters in the current world.

No, they wouldn't. 

[Don Johnson 4754]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

No one is seceding. But if CA actually did, people red and blue would leave in droves.

If CA actually left, those 55 electoral votes would be sorely missed.  Especially if the 5-10 million republicans living in California bailed and moved to other states.

[David Dennison 18938]

18 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Again, who are the United States in this scenario?  Where do the leaders and soldiers in this United States military come from?

Also, why do you think that other countries are going to stay entirely out of it?  Do you believe that the Remaining States military is going to shoot passenger airplanes out of the sky?  If they do, do you think this will have no effect on internal security inside the Remaining States, that it will also not bring China, Russia, and Europe into the arena?

But yeah, sure, we are gonna get led by Trump, Trump Jr, Gaetz, then several Q anon acolytes for decades.  All while they intentionally destroy the things that actually unify us, and generally bleed us dry.  Just because the USA has to stay together or something.   That's Roman talk.

Hell, the only real fight may be over who gets to keep the name USA.

I think you greatly overestimate the loyalty members of the military have to their home state, particularly among the officer class. It's not 1861. Country loyalty trumps state loyalty, no pun intended.

As for foreign nations, they are not going to risk the ire of the United States government just so they can support some ill-conceived provincial secession movement.

[gmr548 16588]

By geography, it’s basically 50/50:

 

Which matters zero in terms of partisan breakdown.

[Born to Run 6569]

This. And I'll be there if I'm living in a van.
Just need to burn down OC. Bakersfield and Fresno too

[TexArcher 37989]

19 minutes ago, Don Johnson said:

If CA actually left, those 55 electoral votes would be sorely missed.  Especially if the 5-10 million republicans living in California bailed and moved to other states.

CA leaving isn't on the Stuff That Might Actually Happen list.

[Herpa Derpa 6126]

50 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

No, they wouldn't. 

Yes, they would.  Prove me wrong or prove your assertion, Buck-o.  What's that?  Neither baseless opinion can be proven?  Guess you're just talking out your ass then, Chief.

[workswithseed 2109]

7 hours ago, mchookem said:

given the last week, i'm guessing we could all kiss social security goodbye for good. so that'll happen. 

Yay!

[workswithseed 2109]

3 hours ago, CooterBrown said:

We should just evolve into a bunch of city-states like Singapore.  We can just have economic and social contracts for business and travel between like city-states.  Fuck the rural areas. They want freedom? Give them freedom from any type of economic growth and higher education and let them support themselves. 

I guess you don't like food?

[BrickHorn 18253]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

1 hour ago, BrickHorn said:

By geography, it’s basically 50/50:

 

Which matters zero in terms of partisan breakdown.

No but it matters a whole lot when you’re running a “California secession” thought experiment. If that happens, the California that secedes would not look like the California we know from a standard map. It would be a collection of the blue counties along the coast. The inland counties would not go with their liberal western neighbors. They would align instead with the rural areas to their East and north. 

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

1 hour ago, FondrenRoad said:

I am saying that Trump isn't Obama. He isn't Bush either.  He is the type of ruler that collapses nations. A self interested narcissist who cares nothing about governance.  Trump openly acknowledged withholding federal aid due to state voting trends.  If CA is on its own to provide covid relief to its residents, then why should CA residents pay federal taxes knowing that they are explicitly excluded from receiving anything back?  This isn't a handful of militiamen bitching.  If CA put secession to a referendum, it would pass right now. I suppose that isn't just because of Trump, but he has certainly pushed it over the edge.  They've been told for quite a while that they aren't real "Americans" in spite of being our nation's most populous state.

A union must provide value for it to work. In your opinion, does the USA currently provide value for California residents? It certainly used to. But does it now?  And really, does the US provide value to the residents of any states at this point?  Its still built around the idea that we need to universally defend ourselves against some strong external power. It needs to be built on internal unity and governance or else it is unneeded and detrimental.

Big tech companies would prefer to be stateless. They will likely have access to all markets anyway. They do typically prefer liberal social ideals, so much so that they aggregate in high tax locations even while they likely prefer low or not taxes.  Regardless, SV will go with California if it goes, and they'll pillage the dergulated poor states.

I guess you think we can be led by q anon and Gaetz as well, and wealthy states will keep on hanging around just because thats what they always did before?  Nations more unified than us have failed.  At one point, this one will too.  The RNC is picking leaders almost designed to insure it happens.

 

I think our disconnect is you making the case for secession rather than an actual secession happening.  We could start with Pelosi and Feinstein and you tell me if either of those two scream "rebel" to you.  I'm not trying to pick on you, or be mean, btw.  I'm just saying your scenario, in my opinion, is not close to being realistic.  I'm not saying you wouldn't find support for your ideas. I'm saying it flat out won't happen. 

You did answer my corporate question, I'll just say I disagree.  Corporations operate as they do without needing the obstacles that a secession would provide.  As someone else in the thread said, the whole idea is a non-starter. 

If CA put secession to a referendum, it would pass right now.

I'm going to say absolutely no, it would not.  And it won't make that far.

[David Dennison 18938]

40 minutes ago, Herpa Derpa said:

Yes, they would.  Prove me wrong or prove your assertion, Buck-o.  What's that?  Neither baseless opinion can be proven?  Guess you're just talking out your ass then, Chief.

Calmer than you are.

[yoladu 4094]

On 8/23/2020 at 5:47 PM, jimmyjazz said:

Let's play the "what if" game:  what is the range of outcomes we will see here in the US should Trump win and the Senate retain a majority?

One thing is clear:  SCOTUS will surely gain another conservative justice, as there is no reason to believe RBG will hang on until 2024.

If he does win, it would almost certainly be without the popular vote. Which would make 7 out 8 Presidential Elections where the GOP did not win the popular vote.

1992 Clinton D

1996 Clinton D

2000 Gore D

2004 Bush R

2008 Obama D

2012 Obama D

2016 Hillary D

2020 Biden D

yet in those years, how many Supreme Court Justices have been appointed under a GOP President and how many under a Dem President?

4 GOP, 4 Dem

at the end of a second Trump term, t could easily be 7 GOP, 4 Dem [3 more being RBG, Breyer, Alito (rumoured)]

 

Edited August 25, 2020 by yoladu

[David Dennison 18938]

1 minute ago, yoladu said:

If he does win, it would almost certainly be without the popular vote. Which would make 7 out 8 Presidential Elections where the GOP did not win the popular vote.

1992 Clinton D

1996 Clinton D

2000 Gore D

2004 Bush R

2008 Obama D

2012 Obama D

2016 Hillary D

2020 Biden D

yet in those years, how many Supreme Court Justices have been appointed under a GOP President and how many under a Dem President?

6 GOP, 4 Dem

at the end of a second Trump term, t could easily be 9 GOP, 4 Dem [3 more being RBG, Breyer, Alito (rumoured)]

 

A Republican might not win the presidency with the popular vote ever again.

[henrygandorf 29194]

glad to see my humorous contribution led to such rigorous debate.

a few things to add - if there was ever "secession talk", it would likely involve parts/all of washington and oregon.  whomever was asking about really blue states, there's your answer.  if colorado was a direct neighbor, you could throw them in too.  it would look like the ppe agreement territory.  and no, i don't think it will be discussed, no matter how bad it will get, and it will get worse than anyone here can imagine.  the ledge will need a ledge.

shit, if you told trump the day after his "win" that california/oregon/washington wanted to secede, which would make the united states experiment officially over, and that his people were looking into a new constitution that allowed him to be supreme ruler for life, he wouldn't even have to think about it.  good thing it's not up to him.

all that said, do you think the united states will exist in its current form in 2000 years?  1000?  500?  if you answered emphatic yes to those questions, then disregard the rest of this paragraph.  if you hesitated or answered no, then ask yourself this - what happened?  because something surely did happen, and surely will happen.  technology has gotten us to the point where borders really don't matter anymore. 

we should stop treating this shit like we're the roman empire.  we all know what happened to that situation.  we're so self-centered and egotistical as a people that we pretend right now is the way it is and always will be moving forward.  that everything that led up to this moment (the last 1500 years or so) was preordained and meant to be in order to have it the way it is exactly right now. 

you think centuries ago england ever thought all their territories would get split up into a million pieces?  or spain or france or mongolia or wherever?  i'm not a huge history guy so someone else will have to come up with better examples.

[SydneyCarton 48124]

4 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

glad to see my humorous contribution led to such rigorous debate.

a few things to add - if there was ever "secession talk", it would likely involve parts/all of washington and oregon.  whomever was asking about really blue states, there's your answer.  if colorado was a direct neighbor, you could throw them in too.  it would look like the ppe agreement territory.  and no, i don't think it will be discussed, no matter how bad it will get, and it will get worse than anyone here can imagine.  the ledge will need a ledge.

shit, if you told trump the day after his "win" that california/oregon/washington wanted to secede, which would make the united states experiment officially over, and that his people were looking into a new constitution that allowed him to be supreme ruler for life, he wouldn't even have to think about it.  good thing it's not up to him.

all that said, do you think the united states will exist in its current form in 2000 years?  1000?  500?  if you answered emphatic yes to those questions, then disregard the rest of this paragraph.  if you hesitated or answered no, then ask yourself this - what happened?  because something surely did happen, and surely will happen.  technology has gotten us to the point where borders really don't matter anymore. 

we should stop treating this shit like we're the roman empire.  we all know what happened to that situation.  we're so self-centered and egotistical as a people that we pretend right now is the way it is and always will be moving forward.  that everything that led up to this moment (the last 1500 years or so) was preordained and meant to be in order to have it the way it is exactly right now. 

you think centuries ago england ever thought all their territories would get split up into a million pieces?  or spain or france or mongolia or wherever?  i'm not a huge history guy so someone else will have to come up with better examples.

Good luck. I’ve be been saying some version of this for years. We’re not even 300 years old and everyone thinks we’re the empire of destiny. Stupid. 
 

in fact, in regards to your last 2 paragraphs, I’d posit that the largest fundamental stumbling block to America’s success is the outright rejection of the idea of change and evolution. What are people fighting so hard against now? Change. Be it equality for black people, LBGTQ rights, equal healthcare, demographic makeup of America and immigration, whatever, it’s all rooted in a fear and outright rejection of change. Kids on the Internet, dogs and cats, living together! If folks just willfully accept that the world and the counties in it are always changing, and to realize the best countries change with the times as well instead of clutching our pearls and getting fucking butthurt that we’re all going to get old and die...well...then America might actually have something going. But we don’t. We’re full of narcissistic assholes. 

[Herpa Derpa 6126]

1 hour ago, David Dennison said:

Calmer than you are.

Posting history suggests otherwise, Sport.

[fattyflattie 4639]

JFC y’all have me agreeing with Dennison.  

[CooterBrown 18015]

Right, that's what I meant by cutting a big check. I also think you have to cut an additional big check to pay into their healthcare/benefits system. You just don't show up and get it for free. 

I wonder how much it is. A friend moved to London two years ago and he had to buy in to the NHS and it was $500 for one year. The amount may be low to make up for you not having paid British income taxes at that point.

[FondrenRoad 4378]

8 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

Also, this seems like an excellent time to point out to everyone that FondrenRoad has a history of coming completely unhinged in manners that sometime resemble breaks from reality, and he'll stay down these rabbit holes like a cocaine addled asteroid hurtling towards the gravitational pull that is our poor, unfortunate, threads. 

You put too much value in what you see posted on the internet.   Nothing on surly is "reality."   But not even your surly persona would stay still under another 12 years of Trump and Trumpist rule.

 

4 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

glad to see my humorous contribution led to such rigorous debate.

a few things to add - if there was ever "secession talk", it would likely involve parts/all of washington and oregon.  whomever was asking about really blue states, there's your answer.  if colorado was a direct neighbor, you could throw them in too.  it would look like the ppe agreement territory.  and no, i don't think it will be discussed, no matter how bad it will get, and it will get worse than anyone here can imagine.  the ledge will need a ledge.

shit, if you told trump the day after his "win" that california/oregon/washington wanted to secede, which would make the united states experiment officially over, and that his people were looking into a new constitution that allowed him to be supreme ruler for life, he wouldn't even have to think about it.  good thing it's not up to him.

all that said, do you think the united states will exist in its current form in 2000 years?  1000?  500?  if you answered emphatic yes to those questions, then disregard the rest of this paragraph.  if you hesitated or answered no, then ask yourself this - what happened?  because something surely did happen, and surely will happen.  technology has gotten us to the point where borders really don't matter anymore. 

we should stop treating this shit like we're the roman empire.  we all know what happened to that situation.  we're so self-centered and egotistical as a people that we pretend right now is the way it is and always will be moving forward.  that everything that led up to this moment (the last 1500 years or so) was preordained and meant to be in order to have it the way it is exactly right now. 

you think centuries ago england ever thought all their territories would get split up into a million pieces?  or spain or france or mongolia or wherever?  i'm not a huge history guy so someone else will have to come up with better examples.

Nah.  The USA has to stay together forever just because.  Doesn't matter how bad our leader is.  We will all stay on board.  Forever.

But maybe secession is the wrong word for what's going to happen.  Revolution is more accurate.  But the end result will be several different countries.  Same thing, different name for it.

Edited August 26, 2020 by FondrenRoad

[AeroHorn 753]

I don't think secession will happen, but if it were to happen, it will be more along the lines of Scotland's attempt and Brexit; a long drawn out political process that will rival the conference realignment in fantasized combinations and permutations. In other words, there will be OR/WA joining California (safe bet), Phoenix area trying to dump the rest of the state to be with LA area (similarly TT latching onto UT), the red portions of CA/OR/WA whining like Nebraska/aggy but knowing that they are net takers and hence better make a deal they don't deserve to be part of the blue coastal coalition, the immediate red neighbors (AZ/NV/UT/ID) seeing the future on the west and literally nothing to their east will try to form an independent coalition while trying to have a most favored nation deal with the west, the midwest desperately trying to hang-on to the northeast, and the south happy to be what they are and proud of it (better 155 years late than never for them). This leaves Texas to form its own coalition out of NM/CO/KS/OK.

Again, it won't happen, but if it were to happen, it will long and messy, and will be a political dissolution rather than an abrupt civil war, IMO.

[Biff Tannen 45694]

Oh hai guyz. What’s going on?

[BradInATX 9208]

There's not going to be civil war or secession.

There is a very real chance that a re-election would push the world to switch from USD to something else as the global reserve currency and petro dollar, though. And that would be catastrophic to the point where it could mean the end of American prosperity.

[MonkeyDoughnut 10328]

13 hours ago, yoladu said:

If he does win, it would almost certainly be without the popular vote. Which would make 7 out 8 Presidential Elections where the GOP did not win the popular vote.

1992 Clinton D

1996 Clinton D

2000 Gore D

2004 Bush R

2008 Obama D

2012 Obama D

2016 Hillary D

2020 Biden D

yet in those years, how many Supreme Court Justices have been appointed under a GOP President and how many under a Dem President?

4 GOP, 4 Dem

at the end of a second Trump term, t could easily be 7 GOP, 4 Dem [3 more being RBG, Breyer, Alito (rumoured)]

 

That's like having the most first downs in a football game. 

[CooterBrown 18015]

1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

There is a very real chance that a re-election would push the world to switch from USD to something else as the global reserve currency and petro dollar, though. And that would be catastrophic to the point where it could mean the end of American prosperity.

We will have earned it.

 

[Beantown Express 2.0 6559]

Is this the United States realignment thread?  What conference is the state of Texas going to end up in?

[ndawg 1242]

Blue states need to start leveraging their superior intellect. Here’s how you make a peaceful breakup happen:

”Hey red states. Y’all tired of our socialism being a drag on our shared resources? How about we go our separate ways. If you’re right, we’ll be Venezuela in a few years, crumbling under the weight of our impractical social programs and you’ll be rich thanks to not having to carry us on your back anymore. Why not stand by your beliefs? You’re not scared, are you?”

[FondrenRoad 4378]

4 hours ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

Is this the United States realignment thread?  What conference is the state of Texas going to end up in?

Well, let's see, you have Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico next to you.  Nobody wants to be saddled with that baggage.  Texas is going to have to go it alone.

[Wulaw Horn 19131]

On 8/23/2020 at 7:23 PM, Voldemort86 said:

Trump had a very easy 3 years before corona.  He didn’t really have any major crises to deal with and Obama left him an economy with roughly 60-70 months straight of growth.

you could find some guy off the street and make him president and even he would’ve done a good job from 2017-2019. Easiest point in time to lead our country in a very long time.

I saw someone wrote something non March of 2020 that called the Rona “the first crisis, not of his own making, of the Trump presidency”. I thought that was pretty appropriate. 

[Wulaw Horn 19131]

On 8/25/2020 at 1:11 PM, jimmyjazz said:

Secession is a non-starter.  It would of course kick off a violent civil war.  Not gonna happen.

I'd like to see a study of %blue / %red on a state by state basis.  I can't imagine there are many states that are largely blue -- perhaps some of the small east coast states that are largely urban.  Other than that, nope.  On the other hand, plenty of the wild west states are surely heavily red.  I'm not talking 55/45, I'm talking 90/10.

Just because secession once kicked off a violent civil war doesn’t mean it would now. If California wants to leave so wish them luck. If the shoe was on the other foot I expect somewhat the same. 
I don’t see anyone with the stomach to fight over succession again. It’s a counter factual and I might well be wrong, but just because 160 year ago it led to war doesn’t mean it needed to then or necessarily would now. 

[NAVY 6747]

5 hours ago, ndawg said:

Blue states need to start leveraging their superior intellect. Here’s how you make a peaceful breakup happen:

”Hey red states. Y’all tired of our socialism being a drag on our shared resources? How about we go our separate ways. If you’re right, we’ll be Venezuela in a few years, crumbling under the weight of our impractical social programs and you’ll be rich thanks to not having to carry us on your back anymore. Why not stand by your beliefs? You’re not scared, are you?”