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2020-21 Winter weather; bring it on

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31485

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Red Five said:

Someone recommended to me that I leave all of my faucets "on" inside, including baths, to help prevent pipes bursting when the water comes back on. Bullshit? 

I dunno. Not sure an ice plug if there even is one, is any different than a closed faucet (both stop flow pretty completely) and you usually don't have to worry about bursting all your pipes when water goes on and off in more normal circumstances.

Still, the open faucets will keep water pressure from building or building as fast if something is plugged.

So I guess it can't hurt.

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SubliminalHorn
SubliminalHorn

Power back on. 109 hours. I almost want to cry a little 

Machinator
Machinator
BradInATX
BradInATX

I've actually been turning my heat up a degree every time a new Surly member loses power on this thread. It's a nice balmy 94 in here.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Someone recommended to me that I leave all of my faucets "on" inside, including baths, to help prevent pipes bursting when the water comes back on. Bullshit? 

Mainly (pun intended) if you're on city, make sure your house valve is closed or only slightly opened when the water comes barreling out of their main.  You don't want to pressurize the system instantly.  What I'm going to do (on a well, but same idea) is 1) open the valve at well head (same as city main valve) up to the CLOSED house inflow.  2) Have wifey in house with ALL the faucets open, go around and monitor that water gradually is coming out of each faucet normally (eventually) as she moves along. 3) Watch/listen CAREFULLY for hisses or weird sounds - that's probably pipes leaking/busted.  4) Close off all valves from first to last (order doesn't matter that much) once both hot and cold are running 100%. 5) Be ready to run back to the house inflow to shut off if something's not right.

Being outside at the well for Step 1, I can see two spigots outside and will be able to tell pretty quickly if there's a problem.  If so I'll probably shut off my well head valve (our spigots are diverted before water reaches house inflow - they get water as soon as well head valve is on).

Hoo boy is that gonna be a knee-knocking moment. (p.s. before power was cut off Mon. a.m. I had all the faucets and spigots going great).

 

tl;dr:  I'm not making recommenations for others (CYA) but personally I do think it's important to SLOWLY re-pressurize home, so I'm a yes on your comment (or "no" on that it's bullshit).

Edited by phdhorn
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drt

drt 638

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, troph said:

we opened the main and we have nothing.  not sure what to do, will probably close it again.

We are on the other side of the neighborhood from y’all I think. We just lost water pressure this morning, so I just turned it off at the main. Not sure how often we should check it. 

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troph

troph 24808

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, drt said:

We are on the other side of the neighborhood from y’all I think. We just lost water pressure this morning, so I just turned it off at the main. Not sure how often we should check it. 

we need to have a TC bonfire after this bullshit.  on an 80 degree weather day no less. 

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TXSG8R

TXSG8R 3362

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Mainly (pun intended) if you're on city, make sure your house valve is closed or only slightly opened when the water comes barreling out of their main.  You don't want to pressurize the system instantly.  What I'm going to do (on a well, but same idea) is 1) open the valve at well head (same as city main valve) up to the CLOSED house inflow.  2) Have wifey in house with ALL the faucets open, go around and monitor that water gradually is coming out of each faucet normally (eventually) as she moves along. 3) Watch/listen CAREFULLY for hisses or weird sounds - that's probably pipes leaking/busted.  4) Close off all valves from first to last (order doesn't matter that much) once both hot and cold are running 100%. 5) Be ready to run back to the house inflow to shut off if something's not right.

Being outside at the well for Step 1, I can see two spigots outside and will be able to tell pretty quickly if there's a problem.  If so I'll probably shut off my well head valve (our spigots are diverted before water reaches house inflow - they get water as soon as well head valve is on).

Hoo boy is that gonna be a knee-knocking moment. (p.s. before power was cut off Mon. a.m. I had all the faucets and spigots going great).

If your pipes are depressurized you’re going to hear lots of hisses and weird sounds until you clear the air pockets from the lines. I think you’re on the right track, but I would add 4B. Once all the valves are closed and you’re sure any tanks (toilets, WH, etc) are full, watch your meter and see if it’s still moving. That’s the easiest way to confirm if you have a leak somewhere. To confirm it’s pipe related you probably want to shut off toilet valves.  They can sneaky leak and give you a false positive. 

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Pimphand

Pimphand 5755

Posted
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25 minutes ago, South Austin said:

I’m off Burnet and North Loop. Flashing stop signs just up the road are working. I’m braving the Central Market lines. Can you tag or PM me if you get power?

I'm at Houston & Burnet basically hence why we are on the same circuit. Will tag you when the power comes back up. Have fun with the locusts at the grocery store.

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hookemATL

hookemATL 11739

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, RockyMountainHighHorn said:

Anyone have a short update on cedar park? Paranoid mother that has been stuck up here in Dallas for days too long is wondering. 

No issues with water here, or at least no boil water notice from the city. Power has been steady for me throughout. I’m in Anderson mill west neighborhood, near county line (Travis/Williamson). 

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Hpara759

Hpara759 1778

Posted
Posted

so.....in 78626 at about 7:30 last night power came on, 1 min later power went off. I thought uh-oh not good because after 63 hours of nothing then 1 minute of....I was thinking something broke when they turned us back on. This morning leaving the hood for work what I was seeing was confirming my thoughts. Got on Oncor outage map and sure enough there are 19 of us in a island still down for equipment failure.....I'm not at home to confirm but their map still showing the 19 out.......78 hours

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Homercles

Homercles 10205

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, hookemATL said:

No issues with water here, or at least no boil water notice from the city. Power has been steady for me throughout. I’m in Anderson mill west neighborhood, near county line (Travis/Williamson). 

If you’re on the CP MUD they have a boil notice but not regular city water 

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dcar00

dcar00 14210

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

If your pipes are depressurized you’re going to hear lots of hisses and weird sounds until you clear the air pockets from the lines. I think you’re on the right track, but I would add 4B. Once all the valves are closed and you’re sure any tanks (toilets, WH, etc) are full, watch your meter and see if it’s still moving. That’s the easiest way to confirm if you have a leak somewhere. To confirm it’s pipe related you probably want to shut off toilet valves.  They can sneaky leak and give you a false positive. 

Good point on the sneaky toilet  leaks. Good cover band name. Pete and the Sneaky Toilet Leaks.

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Post Oak

Post Oak 20217

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Hpara759 said:

so.....in 78626 at about 7:30 last night power came on, 1 min later power went off. I thought uh-oh not good because after 63 hours of nothing then 1 minute of....I was thinking something broke when they turned us back on. This morning leaving the hood for work what I was seeing was confirming my thoughts. Got on Oncor outage map and sure enough there are 19 of us in a island still down for equipment failure.....I'm not at home to confirm but their map still showing the 19 out.......78 hours

That's so fucking frustrating.  I was 73 and going out of my mind.  Good luck

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

If your pipes are depressurized you’re going to hear lots of hisses and weird sounds until you clear the air pockets from the lines. I think you’re on the right track, but I would add 4B. Once all the valves are closed and you’re sure any tanks (toilets, WH, etc) are full, watch your meter and see if it’s still moving. That’s the easiest way to confirm if you have a leak somewhere. To confirm it’s pipe related you probably want to shut off toilet valves.  They can sneaky leak and give you a false positive. 

Thanks, all good but I don't have a water meter since I get well water.  But usually if there is a leak you can detect a drop in pressure even before it gets too large, even if it's a pinhole.

Good tip on toilet valves, too.  People often overlook those.

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clapclapclap

clapclapclap 9000

Posted
Posted (edited)

Interesting map of generators from this morning.  Taken off the Texags thread:

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3182697/40

56468a3f02f3bf76362657c82ad66e8da30e96a6

(You may have to right click the image and then "Open image in new tab" to get it large enough to read the plant operating numbers.)

Edited by clapclapclap
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crimsonlonghorn

crimsonlonghorn 2306

Posted
Posted
58 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 


Crimson, FANTASTIC post. In short, the gas plants made a sound and reasonable economic decision....because that is how our system is intentionally designed. ERCOT’s forecast fuckup, and the timing of same, exacerbated the problem. But a large part of this was our system working exactly the way it was designed, meaning this is how we WANTED it to work.

And yes, Biff, you asked the right question. Having an energy-only market, instead of one that also has a capacity component (we would pay operators to have and keep facilities online for such emergencies) is a big part of how we ended up here. And we were warned. Repeatedly.

It seems we’re on the downhill slope now, though. Still too many without power. And water. The economic costs are going to be staggering. And my God....the cost in human life....our fellow Texans, who died right next to us. My heart is fucking breaking.

And “rage” doesn’t even begin to cover it.

 

In theory, ERCOT doesn't need a capacity market because of the way the market and grid are designed, but in practice it almost certainly would have been the difference in keeping this from happening in these specific circumstances. 

One of the more commonsense reforms would be to set up a capacity (or readiness) market for Mondays only or in declared forecast weather emergencies or something like that. Unfortunately, I think the rarity of these circumstances will be ignored and lead to more comprehensive and cumbersome changes instead. Politicians gonna politick. 

Again, I'm willing to cut ERCOT and the generators a lot of slack given the multiple sigma nature of the weather event and the serendipitous timing relative to the markets. I'd much rather that they continue to focus on summer loads and handle grid reforms and winterizing with a light touch, but most people are very angry right now and there will be political consequences because of it. 

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Homercles

Homercles 10205

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Dbeasy said:

Like others, we are debating whether to try and warm up the outside spigots or just wait for warm temperatures. We’ve decided to use surly posters as the guinea pigs. Good luck. We are counting on you. 

For what it’s worth my north facing one froze the moment the power went out for 12hrs.  Once we got power on for more than a few hours, it thawed and no leaks we’ve seen so far.  We were dripping all inside however.  This particular one runs through the slab, so hoping there’s no hidden issues. 

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

WSI_Feb%200120.jpg?crop=16:9&width=980&f

https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2021-01-20-february-temperature-outlook-2021

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Other than their maps page (which is now hard to find as they've buried it behind front page sensationalism), the Weather Channel is the Popeil of weather channels.  Actually normally this would be true with La Niña which we were in.  But if they didn't change it once it was clear the vortex was coming, oh say back in mid-January, they're idiots.  And you'd think they'd change it because they loves some of dat sensationalism!

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South Austin

South Austin 52515

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

I'm at Houston & Burnet basically hence why we are on the same circuit. Will tag you when the power comes back up. Have fun with the locusts at the grocery store.

Want to meet at Woodrow’s later for happy hour?

Managed to be one of the first to get into Central Market. Very little produce, but got some bottled water, a rotisserie chicken, some bacon and eggs (hoping the power comes in later to make a frittata), and some other nibbles.

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crimsonlonghorn

crimsonlonghorn 2306

Posted
Posted
Just now, phdhorn said:

Other than their maps page (which is now hard to find as they've buried it behind front page sensationalism), the Weather Channel is the Popeil of weather channels.  Actually normally this would be true with La Niña which we were in.  But if they didn't change it once it was clear the vortex was coming, oh say back in mid-January, they're idiots.  And you'd think they'd change it because they loves some of dat sensationalism!

I saw a tweet several weeks ago - late January - from an old analog forecaster (I can't remember who) that said, "Get ready for an arctic blast, Texas!"

At the time the long range models and forecasts were still very warm. 

Like many things, we are almost too reliant on technology sometimes instead of old-fashioned skill. 

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Like others, we are debating whether to try and warm up the outside spigots or just wait for warm temperatures. We’ve decided to use surly posters as the guinea pigs. Good luck. We are counting on you. 

Mine that was frozen busted a leak yesterday when it thawed out, so my recommendation is to burn down your house and use the insurance money to move to the Caribbean away from this wintery hellhole.

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clapclapclap

clapclapclap 9000

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Managed to be one of the first to get into Central Market. Very little produce, but got some bottled water, a rotisserie chicken, 

Did they have actual flavors, or just that 'Traditional' and 'Classic' crap?

Edited by clapclapclap
Crisis level inquiry
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crimsonlonghorn

crimsonlonghorn 2306

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

When do we think it's safe for #teamdrip and #teamstream to stop streaming and dripping?

Perhaps foolishily, I have never bothered with dripping with "ordinary" hard freezes, like to the 20s.  But there, we're dealing with a temperature drop, not a rise, so the baseline is much worse.

Hard freeze in Sugar Land the next two nights. I'm going to shut it off again and drain both nights. Hopefully Saturday morning we will be done with it. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16580

Posted
Posted
I saw a tweet several weeks ago - late January - from an old analog forecaster (I can't remember who) that said, "Get ready for an arctic blast, Texas!"
At the time the long range models and forecasts were still very warm. 
Like many things, we are almost too reliant on technology sometimes instead of old-fashioned skill. 

I mean, there is nothing about weather forecasting that isn’t reliant on technology. All the data is obtained from what the technology we have to monitor is telling you. Without technology, you cannot forecast weather.
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miguelito

miguelito 11266

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

WSI_Feb%200120.jpg?crop=16:9&width=980&f

https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2021-01-20-february-temperature-outlook-2021

If you enjoy Twitter comments feedback:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

According to the Farmer's Almanac, predictions for Feb 2021 (published late 2020):

Feb 8-11: sleet Arkansas, TX-OK panhandle, rain across southern, central TX

Feb 12-15: changeable skies

Feb 16-19: clearing/colder

Feb 20-23: heavy snow eastern NM, much of OK, TX,... showery southern TX, LA, messy Mardi Gras.

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MNLonghornFUKM

MNLonghornFUKM 8817

Posted
Posted
According to the Farmer's Almanac, predictions for Feb 2021 (published late 2020):
Feb 8-11: sleet Arkansas, TX-OK panhandle, rain across southern, central TX
Feb 12-15: changeable skies
Feb 16-19: clearing/colder
Feb 20-23: heavy snow eastern NM, much of OK, TX,... showery southern TX, LA, messy Mardi Gras.

That book is always wrong .
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Shoxthemonkey

Shoxthemonkey 1981

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, miguelito said:

According to the Farmer's Almanac, predictions for Feb 2021 (published late 2020):

Feb 8-11: sleet Arkansas, TX-OK panhandle, rain across southern, central TX

Feb 12-15: changeable skies

Feb 16-19: clearing/colder

Feb 20-23: heavy snow eastern NM, much of OK, TX,... showery southern TX, LA, messy Mardi Gras.

You will always see people crow about it when it's accurate. You never hear about the  90%* of the time that it is off.

 

* made up number. YMMV

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crimsonlonghorn

crimsonlonghorn 2306

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


I mean, there is nothing about weather forecasting that isn’t reliant on technology. All the data is obtained from what the technology we have to monitor is telling you. Without technology, you cannot forecast weather.

Agree, you need "technology" to get the observations and aggregate them, but I was speaking more about forecasting models. Large scale computer forecasting only started in earnest in the early 90's.

Before that meteorologists (real weather scientists, not blondes in tight dresses) would have to analyze data and compare it to similar patterns in the past and divine a weather forecast without the aid of computers. They might not have been as precise as the computers can be now, but they also knew that certain temperature and pressure patterns over North America and the oceans could lead to hurricanes in the gulf or cold snaps in the plains or whatever. 

This is what the computers do now, they are just able to do it in bigger quantities and with more inputs and more granularly than humans can by themselves. 

But you are right, a thermometer and a satellite are both "technology". I should have been more precise that I meant computers. 

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Captainant

Captainant 27677

Posted
Posted

Re: weather forecasting getting worse

We recently licensed (sometime around 2019-2020) new ranges of spectrum for 5G wireless service. Those ranges were taken from the national weather service who used those frequencies to monitor water in the atmosphere. I'll try and find some sourcing, but we have materially diminished our ability to track and predict weather to the point we're around 90s or early 2000's 

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

Update:

So this storm is putting Austin a little more in the heavier snow than forecast (NO WAI!), so I can see 3"-4" in S/SW parts of the ATX.  Other than that, behaving more or less like the models predicted.  Latest shot:
storm.png.5bfb71e026f91749c0324bdc876d7a79.png

This is gonna keep up all day unless it starts evaporating.  More great news from this shit.

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