2020-21 Winter weather; bring it on

[yoladu 4093]

8 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Gotdammit, in what level of hell do you all reside? I hope you all get power soon. I was going on a day and a half and it was utter shittiness. Power kicked on about an hour ago and my balls are still defrosting.

In Central/West Austin. In a little outage pocket with about 300 affected households. 
 

living the dream. 

Edited February 18, 2021 by yoladu

[texhorn 351]

ERCOT chart is interesting today. Grid has made a significant recovery with 65kMW capacity, demand peaking around 50kMW. Yet, market pricing is still maxed out at the $9k cap. Probably letting the producers recover their loses from the past few days.

[EE2B 1565]

Something that I have yet to see mentioned in these articles - and don't get me wrong, I don't disagree with the conclusions that ERCOT fucked up and the competitive system isn't far enough forward-looking to incentivize grid improvements- is that this happened on the back half of a four day gas trading weekend. So not only was it a five or six sigma weather event, it was also really bad timing on the trading calendar. Had this happened on a non-holiday weekday, a lot of the power supply issues would have been avoided or minimized. (Some other poster way upthread alluded to this when he was talking about buying gas for his power plant)
For the most part, these resources are traded and managed "day ahead", meaning that gas is purchased and power sold and plants brought up or down the immediate day before. (There is something else called "real time" but that is more like fine tuning what is already up and running, you don't usually startup cold power plants in RT)
It's hard enough to schedule and manage supply for normal weekends, which cover Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Saturday and Sunday have lower demand than Monday, but you have to trade the same amount of product for each day and then you manage it during the day after the schedule is set. Saturday and Sunday positions will sometimes get closed out at a loss with the expectation that Monday's profit will make up for it. 
For Monday holidays, they add Tuesday to the weekend package, so now you are trading four days of equal volumes and price but you have a different load profile on each of those days. 
Last Friday, when the cold was on its way here, it was already in Oklahoma and points north, and that caused gas prices to spike in those areas. Where gas is normally $2 or $3 per MMBTU it was $100 or more. And it was so cold up north that a lot of their wells were frozen off and unable to supply, so they were buying gas in South Texas and shipping it north, which made the price of South Texas gas - "Houston Ship Channel", "Waha", "NGPL STX" - spike as well, FOR THE WHOLE FOUR DAY WEEKEND. Instead of the usual $3, it was trading $200. 10-20x higher than it has ever traded. 
Well, ERCOT underestimated the demand on Monday and a lot of Texas generators woke up on Friday and looked at the Ship Channel price for the four day package and said, "Fuck that. That's too expensive." and they shut their plants down for the 4 day weekend. Then when the shit hit the fan on Monday, those plants were all cold and there wasn't any gas to run them anyway because it had all been exported north AND the wells in Texas were frozen off too AND one of the STP nuclear units got shut down because the water intake was freezing.
And that's how you end up with no power supply when demand is going through the roof. 
As I said at the beginning, had this happened on a normal weekday, a lot of those resources would have been online and available. The bad forecast for the back end of a four day weekend with record gas prices is a big part of why the power grid went down. 
Also, as mentioned above, Houston generators got socked the hardest because there is a very large amount of gas generation here AND it is a gas trading hub AND it typically doesn't get as cold here so the plants are more susceptible.

Spot on. That was me that brought this up earlier. We committed last Friday for a specific volume of gas expecting the price to be in the $30/unit range. We were notified after the commitment that the price is $356/unit, but at that point we’re committed whether we use the gas or not. So basically we said Friday that we will purchase 20 units of gas Saturday, Sunday & Monday. When they told us the pricing it was to late, we were in. That’s why we shut the fuck down Monday morning and are still down. We’re waiting on pricing for this weekend to decide if we stay down through the weekend or not. In the mean time do you care to guess how much shit has frozen and busted with everything being down? FM Global hates this shit.

[South Austin 52463]

1 minute ago, yoladu said:

In Central/West Austin. In a little outage pocket with about 300 affected households. 

I’ve got a friend who might live near your neck (off Crestway Drive) who’s been without power since Monday.

[dimyh 1874]

Suns out and it is melting in the DFW! Went outside to clear a way to my water cutoff in case I have anything unexpected in the next day or so. Also got up a ladder to clear as much as my roof as possible. Still got one big bank I couldn't reach. Hopefully it can melt away without finding some sneaky paths under the roof.

 

[Spaulding Smails 1552]

26 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

This is something I have realized this week: how lucky I am to be married to a woman that loves to cook.  We could survive on whatever we have in the house and freezer for probably a month.  The hoarding of food from store shelves prior to and during this week long episode has been telling. 

Same.  Other than fresh veggies and no oven, we haven't missed a beat.  Since the power went out Monday, we've had big breakfast tacos, a variety of grilled panini sandiwches, chili, chicken tortilla soup and grilled venison backstrap with cheese grits and broccoli.  I feel bad for people that rely on take-out and restaurants during these types of events.

[phdhorn 6224]

I don't believe too much that Austin Ain'tergy says but I do think that at this point if you're still out of power, it's likely due to a line/transformer/mech issue.

That was my problem - they weren't going to shut us down at all (I'm near a fire station) but a little subgrid of that (where I am) had a transformer go out.

[ChickenSandwich 9832]

Seems like power back for everyone around me. WTF. 108 hours and 49mins

[phdhorn 6224]

31 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

This is something I have realized this week: how lucky I am to be married to a woman that loves to cook.  We could survive on whatever we have in the house and freezer for probably a month.  The hoarding of food from store shelves prior to and during this week long episode has been telling. 

 

2 minutes ago, Spaulding Smails said:

Same.  Other than fresh veggies and no oven, we haven't missed a beat.  Since the power went out Monday, we've had big breakfast tacos, a variety of grilled panini sandiwches, chili, chicken tortilla soup and grilled venison backstrap with cheese grits and broccoli.  I feel bad for people that rely on take-out and restaurants during these types of events.

Make it 3.  She looked up some Internet site that says "give me what you got at home in the pantry and I'll tell you what you can make."

She's just made oatmeal cookies out of, hell, could be insulation for all I know, but they're good!

Yesterday she made a whole slab of granola type bars out of who knows what.

She's very good at that!

I might get to start liking her a bit after 26 years!

[Helobious 9448]

Situation in SA is still rough. Snow not letting up. SAWS saying if you don’t have water now don’t expect it until next week. Most everyone I know has power at least. Most roads were warm enough from yesterday that snow is melting on impact so they’re very wet. Once it drops into 20s tonight they’ll ice over completely. 

[Eastwood 4394]

3 minutes ago, Helobious said:

SAWS saying if you don’t have water now don’t expect it until next week.

Source?

[atomheartbevo 89648]

51 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

Nooooooo! All my toilet snow will melt!

Exactly my thoughts.

And I'm also greatly disappointed by how many people I know who didn't initially consider getting and melting snow for filling their toilets.

We filled up a bathtub full of snow, and we have two 5-gallon buckets full of water from snow we melted.

And our rule right now is:

"If it's brown, flush it down, if it's yellow let it mellow!"

[HenryJames 66041]

20 minutes ago, South Austin said:

I’ve got a friend who might live near your neck (off Crestway Drive) who’s been without power since Monday.

He probably posts here as North Austin.

[Machinator 32099]

 

[Patricio Swayze 17058]

Waiting on the plumber to show up. Should be soon. Have I said fuck winter and fuck the cold before? I did? Well, fuck it again.

I’m having bbq and taco withdrawals.

Hope everyone is doing ok.

[Machinator 32099]

 

[Pimphand 5735]

1 hour ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Whataburger line literally 50 cars and backs up past 29th for drive through. Sip pho has about 50-75 people waiting outside 

Yeah I wonder if you can order online and then just check into one of the spots and have them bring it out to you.....

[Hate 20108]

Waiting on the plumber to show up. Should be soon. Have I said fuck winter and fuck the cold before? I did? Well, fuck it again.

I’m having bbq and taco withdrawals.

Hope everyone is doing ok.

You’re doing better than I am. I can’t get a plumber to come. Two days in a row one was supposed to come by but I never heard from them. They won’t even answer their phone anymore. My BIL is coming in from Louisiana. The stores here are all out of pvc and any piping you might need anyway. He has all of the tools we will need to fix it. I just hope no other leaks spring up when we turn the water back on. A friend of our had 7 pipes burst.

[TwiceHorn 31450]

34 minutes ago, EE2B said:

That’s why we shut the fuck down Monday morning and are still down.

Without criticizing you specifically or your company, it seems like something is very wrong with the system when a generation company can just make a "business decision" to shut down in conditions such as these.  Something needs to be established to indemnify companies like yours from extraordinary losses.

[Dahobbs 17534]

32 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Seems like power back for everyone around me. WTF. 108 hours and 49mins

Where are you? Do you need help?

[atomheartbevo 89648]

2 hours ago, phdhorn said:

I can't make the call on pipes, but about 12 hours of freezing (midnight-noon), less SE and S, more NW/N/NE.

In Austin, I would normally consider this an extended freeze and cold enough to freeze a low percentage (maybe 25%) of badly-exposed, less strong pipes.

But after this week, I have no idea what's going to happen the 2nd to the last of 9 freezing overnights (with about 8 included freezing days).

I don't know what to think anymore.  I used to get panicky about temps in the mid 20s and freezing shit, but after going through it getting down to around 6-8, I realize that we lose our shit at 30 degrees when we shouldn't be.  I wouldn't leave faucets uncovered or anything (still #teamwrap ) but I now have a better awareness of how much heat my house is putting off, and how lucky we are with our pipe placement.

Still going to be a hard freeze, and without water pressure for a lot of folks who previously had it, things will be...interesting tonight.

Edited February 18, 2021 by atomheartbevo

[Hpara759 1778]

79626 checking in....at about the 83 hr mark.....

Stats said 48 downstairs 46 upstairs

[atomheartbevo 89648]

2020: Pandemic: A Real-Life Board Game.

2021: Oregon Fucking Trail.

[Telegraph_it 3357]

I can't wait to see what this line item is next month on my CenterPoint bill.

[ChickenSandwich 9832]

7 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Where are you? Do you need help?

We are in NW Austin across from the domain/St David’s. Last of the neighbors all looking out for each other and bringing supplies. Able to stay with a friend in Cedar park now so all good.
 

As long as there is gas in the truck we will be fine. And thank you for asking. Hope you guys are doing great. 

[EE2B 1565]

Without criticizing you specifically or your company, it seems like something is very wrong with the system when a generation company can just make a "business decision" to shut down in conditions such as these.  Something needs to be established to indemnify companies like yours from extraordinary losses.

We are not a power generation business. We generate our own power and could put it back on the grid, but that’s not our business.

[ztejas 43418]

25 minutes ago, Machinator said:

 

My mom is in that ZIP - she's had power since noon. 

[TwiceHorn 31450]

Just now, EE2B said:

We are not a power generation business. We generate our own power and could put it back on the grid, but that’s not our business.

Ahhh.  Sorry for the misunderstanding.

[South Austin 52463]

1 minute ago, ztejas said:

My mom is in that ZIP - she's had power since noon. 

We know.

[EE2B 1565]

Ahhh.  Sorry for the misunderstanding.

No problem. I wouldn’t have said shit if we were, I would’ve kept my mouth shut. I’m not trying to get neg-bombed

[EE2B 1565]

We know.

Insert spider man pointing at each other pic.

[Biff Tannen 45673]

4 minutes ago, ztejas said:

My mom is in that ZIP - she's had power since noon. 

My sister is across the river at 2222 and Mt Bonnell and she's apparently tied to them.  She has a child with special needs and is NOT happy.  Anyway, I just took a drive around Red River and 45th and shit feels normal.  Roads are pretty much dry and people are out getting food and the sun is shining. 

I hope this can last.  I'm still dripping all faucets inside until we don't go below freezing.  I am so paranoid about having a pipe burst, having literally just gotten done with a month long water damage issue.

Edited February 18, 2021 by Biff Tannen
just re-read and maybe she isn't, since you said she's had power since noon

[Schulz2.0 28951]

7 hours ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

AND one of the STP nuclear units got shut down because the water intake was freezing.

Small correction, it was actually a feed pump flow sensor line that froze. The logic sees it as a loss of a feed pump (loss of feed flow casualty) and automatically scams the reactor for safety precautions.

Edited February 18, 2021 by Schulz2.0

[Leeroy Jenkins 2402]

 

I’m exhausted.  I haven’t been on here in a while.  My volunteer fire department has run well over 40 calls the last few days to include several working structure fires.  Not having water is getting way too old.  I smell like shit.  
 

Heads needs to roll. 
 

I just want a hot shower.  

[Macanudo 12976]

1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

This is something I have realized this week: how lucky I am to be married to a woman that loves to cook.  We could survive on whatever we have in the house and freezer for probably a month.  The hoarding of food from store shelves prior to and during this week long episode has been telling. 

I ventured out to HEB yesterday to grab a few things that I was pretty sure they would have.    Ended up getting more than I thought because I knew "Oh, I can use that with the X and Y I already have to make Z."   The store was void of a lot of things but not for those who know how to cook.   But Chick-Fil-A across the street had dozens of cars lined up outside.

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

[South Austin 52463]

2 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

I ventured out to HEB yesterday to grab a few things that I was pretty sure they would have.    Ended up getting more than I thought because I knew "Oh, I can use that with the X and Y I already have to make Z."   The store was void of a lot of things but not for those who know how to cook.   But Chick-Fil-A across the street had dozens of cars lined up outside.

This is what I did yesterday with no power and all electric. Went to my local HEB, where everything was mostly picked over and got three cans of tuna and mayo, added some celery, juice of a lemon, and salt and pepper I already had, served on crackers, and ate over a scented candle. It didn’t totally suck.

[BrickHorn 18218]

41 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Without criticizing you specifically or your company, it seems like something is very wrong with the system when a generation company can just make a "business decision" to shut down in conditions such as these.  Something needs to be established to indemnify companies like yours from extraordinary losses.

Exactly. The point of utilities should be to provide needed services, not to make money by providing services only when doing so is profitable. 

[Kyrie Eleison 9312]

Make it 3.  She looked up some Internet site that says "give me what you got at home in the pantry and I'll tell you what you can make."

She's just made oatmeal cookies out of, hell, could be insulation for all I know, but they're good!

Yesterday she made a whole slab of granola type bars out of who knows what.

She's very good at that!
I might get to start liking her a bit after 26 years!

wife and i have been getting after it in the kitchen...dan dan noodles, gumbo, pot of pork chili, Mexican cornbread, split pea soup, 3 loaves homemade sourdough bread, blackened fish with roasted veggies, and sourdough deep dish pizza tonight. breakfasts have been either avocado toast with fried egg on her bread or a couple of slices of sourdough toast with ricotta, blueberries, thyme and drizzled with smoked honey.

very lucky that my own kitchen skills are equally matched to hers.

[Eastwood 4394]

 

[phdhorn 6224]

10 minutes ago, Kyrie Eleison said:

wife and i have been getting after it in the kitchen...dan dan noodles, gumbo, pot of pork chili, Mexican cornbread, split pea soup, 3 loaves homemade sourdough bread, blackened fish with roasted veggies, and sourdough deep dish pizza tonight. breakfasts have been either avocado toast with fried egg on her bread or a couple of slices of sourdough toast with ricotta, blueberries, thyme and drizzled with smoked honey.

very lucky that my own kitchen skills are equally matched to hers.

Oh I can cook too, but hey, let her go for it!  Actually I've spent a good part of the past 5 days saving the house as much as I could, at least until no power hosed that).
Anyway yeah it's good to have cooks in the house (though we hate cleanup).

[Helobious 9448]

1 hour ago, Eastwood said:

Source?

Friend of a friend said so. Made sense to me so I’ve been running with it.

[Texas St. Armadillos 1381]

15 minutes ago, Kyrie Eleison said:

wife and i have been getting after it in the kitchen...dan dan noodles, gumbo, pot of pork chili, Mexican cornbread, split pea soup, 3 loaves homemade sourdough bread, blackened fish with roasted veggies, and sourdough deep dish pizza tonight. breakfasts have been either avocado toast with fried egg on her bread or a couple of slices of sourdough toast with ricotta, blueberries, thyme and drizzled with smoked honey.

very lucky that my own kitchen skills are equally matched to hers.

I had some chicken spaghetti in the freezer and a pint of green chile stew.  Thawed both.  Mixed with some sour cream and baked it off.  Hot sauce to finish.  **Granted this was with us getting our electricity back.

[Eastwood 4394]

Just now, Helobious said:

Friend of a friend said so. Made sense to me so I’ve been running with it.

Quote

Stone Oak

• Areas south of Knights Cross in Stone Oak should have water service late Thursday, Feb. 18. (May not yet be at full pressure.)
• Areas north of Knights Cross from Canyon Springs up into Timberwood Park is projected to have water by midday Friday, Feb. 19.

I-10 Area (Northwest Side)
We anticipate water service to this area Sunday, Feb 21 or Monday, Feb. 22.

East of U.S. 281 (Evans/Bulverde)
Water service should be restored Friday, Feb. 19 afternoon or evening.

Rogers Ranch
Service should be restored sometime Thursday evening, Feb. 18.

https://www.saws.org/water-outage-map/

Your friend's friend needs better sources.

[BrickTop 477]

At the in-laws today in San Antonio, wife wanted to drive there this weekend because they had water and we’ve been without since Monday, 30 minutes later they lost water.

[Hefeweizen 5311]

1 hour ago, Machinator said:

 

It's kind of crazy, but a lot of trees and a lot of overhead lines means not surprising.  In positive news, a plumber was able to make it out this afternoon and is working on the pipes.  Meanwhile the WCID 10 water system is still turbofucked because the Ullrich plant isn't producing enough and another pump station has no power (due to a downed tree of course).

[Helobious 9448]

6 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

https://www.saws.org/water-outage-map/

Your friend's friend needs better sources.

Monday sure sounds like next week to me. He was right. 
 

Should’ve specified I live in I10/1604 area. My aunt & uncle live in encino park, I came to stay there last night. They had & still have power & water. 

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

57 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Small correction, it was actually a feed pump flow sensor line that froze. The logic sees it as a loss of a feed pump (loss of feed flow casualty) and automatically scams the reactor for safety precautions.

Fair enough. Same result. 

[South Austin 52463]

After a few hours with electricity, I’m starting to feel like this guy.

[Kyrie Eleison 9312]

I had some chicken spaghetti in the freezer and a pint of green chile stew.  Thawed both.  Mixed with some sour cream and baked it off.  Hot sauce to finish.  **Granted this was with us getting our electricity back.

truly glad your power is back and you’re able to have a hot meal.

it’ll taste great.