2020-21 Winter weather; bring it on

[Pato del Muerto 52340]

33 minutes ago, Spaulding Smails said:

Peach, plum and pear.  They're too big to cover.  My citrus trees are in pots, so I move them into the greenhouse for the winter.  Not much I can do other than let mother nature take her course.

Are you going to try to wet them down to form a freeze blanket?

[Marshall_Lucky 624]

On 2/5/2021 at 9:15 AM, Knoxtnhorn said:

There was a front that hit around 84/85 (Dallas area) in which I'll never forget.   I was playing basketball in my shorts and sweating.  That night it dropped into the low teens.  The main water pipe in our street blew, shooting water several feet in the air for a good chunk of time.  The street was under several inches of ice for a week.  Good times.

/csb

Yep, I remember. Maybe it was ‘83. We’d been in West Texas for Christmas, came home to Ft. Worth to find water coming out of light fixtures and running down the walls. Water line in ceiling burst, took about 12 hours for the ceiling to collapse in the kitchen. Seem to recall it was in single digits for several days.

Got-dam I’m old...

[Knoxtnhorn 5929]

2 hours ago, Marshall_Lucky said:

Yep, I remember. Maybe it was ‘83. We’d been in West Texas for Christmas, came home to Ft. Worth to find water coming out of light fixtures and running down the walls. Water line in ceiling burst, took about 12 hours for the ceiling to collapse in the kitchen. Seem to recall it was in single digits for several days.

Got-dam I’m old...

Iirc, while I was playing basketball, there was a distinct line of clouds coming through from the north.  I believe you're right.  Not only was it super cold, but the sun didn't come out for several days.

[Spaulding Smails 1551]

23 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Are you going to try to wet them down to form a freeze blanket?

I've done that before with limited success.  From what I've seen, as long as you have buds and not actual blooms, they're a little more freeze tolerant.  Hoping that's the case this year.  What really kills is a late freeze after blooms are out.

[phdhorn 6224]

Well, as usual for these things, latest models have moderation on the cold shot.  Still going to be pretty cold, but nothing unique.  Temps will be in high 30's to low 40's daytime, and mid-20's night.  However Friday night looks like long freeze, temps could get to 20° in western parts of ATX area.  Originally they were saying it might not make freezing, or get just above it, for most of 2 1/2 days.  Models are aligning/agreeing on warming/moderating us a bit.

That could flip-flop again.  But looks like cold, not frigid weather Wed p.m. through Saturday.  You'll still have to prep at least 3 nights (Thurs-Sat) for a good 8-10 hour freeze each night.

Still, it's gonna be pretty cold, moreso and longer than we've had yet this year.

More down the road if anything changes.

[DaysOff 7851]

20 hours ago, Marshall_Lucky said:

Yep, I remember. Maybe it was ‘83. We’d been in West Texas for Christmas, came home to Ft. Worth to find water coming out of light fixtures and running down the walls. Water line in ceiling burst, took about 12 hours for the ceiling to collapse in the kitchen. Seem to recall it was in single digits for several days.

Got-dam I’m old...

 

Same.  Dad took us skiing in Ruidoso and it was colder in Houston.

[PittsburghTiger 6137]

On 2/4/2021 at 11:20 AM, phdhorn said:

Update:  Biggie Ice Age front not happening this weekend; polar vortex broke down but most of the coldest air remaining far NE U.S. Our temps 60's.

However.. looks pretty clear now that about in a week (next Wed.) we'll get a cold shot with daytimes < 50°.  Mos Def winter.  Stay tuned.

I've been watching for that too. It kept getting pushed back and then now it looks like we will only have one night, which is next Sunday, where it is 0F. Which is fine by me.  Of course that could all drastically change.

[Al_4_ISU 12409]

It’s -15 right now. Going cross country skiing at noon. I am not a sane person.

[TexasHooch 5117]

You are not.  Cross country skiing is the worst.

Oh, you meant the weather...

[Pato del Muerto 52340]

1 hour ago, Al_4_ISU said:

It’s -15 right now. Going cross country skiing at noon. I am not a sane person.

You will warm up quickly. Only -3 here but wind chill of -20. The pizza delivery guys must be hating life today.  I’ll shovel a little before I order so the guy doesn’t hurt himself or my order doesn’t end up all over my yard. 

[Orange&White 5516]

I assume it is just a battle models, but my weekend forecast from the NWS is about 15-20 degrees warmer Wed-Sun that my forecast from Wundeground.

For instance; the Saturday night low on NWS is 40. The same night, WG shows a low of 18.

This is for 78750 in NW Austin.

Edited February 8, 2021 by Orange&White

[Al_4_ISU 12409]

19 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

You will warm up quickly. Only -3 here but wind chill of -20. The pizza delivery guys must be hating life today.  I’ll shovel a little before I order so the guy doesn’t hurt himself or my order doesn’t end up all over my yard. 

Yeah, it wasn't that bad.  Stayed in the woods and warmed up pretty quick.

[Al_4_ISU 12409]

20 hours ago, TexasHooch said:

You are not.  Cross country skiing is the worst.

Oh, you meant the weather...

I used to hate but kinda got hooked on it last winter.  Helps scratch the mountain biking itch in the winter.  I've never enjoyed fatbiking in snow that much.

[phdhorn 6224]

41 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

I assume it is just a battle models, but my weekend forecast from the NWS is about 15-20 degrees warmer Wed-Sun that my forecast from Wundeground.

For instance; the Saturday night low on NWS is 40. The same night, WG shows a low of 18.

This is for 78750 in NW Austin.

What you're seeing in the continuing moderating of the models even more.  Now KXAN isn't even calling for freezing overnight Fri-Sat.  Now temps are getting up to daytime low 50's.  Again, not all that unusual - it's a bitch to predict whether the cold weather has enough oomph to bulldoze through, or weather the warm weather from the Gulf/Southern Jet can push it east.  Looks like it's the latter.

The cold weather's there - temps are in the single digits all around the Great Lakes, and teens throughout most of the NE and northern mid-Atlantic.  But it's just going to slide mostly east of us, so now looking like we'll get a glancing blow of the very western edge of this one.

But it's still gonna be colder than it has for almost a month.  I think temps Thurs-Sun will average about 45° area wide in the day time, just about freezing at night.  More later.

[Gardner Barnes 1562]

So all this firewood is going to sit around then? Shit

[Hate 20103]

[phdhorn 6224]

3 minutes ago, Gardner Barnes said:

So all this firewood is going to sit around then? Shit

Maybe not.  Lots of meteorologists are out there today using the Magic 8 Ball, divining rods, dice, and coins to determine whether the colder forecast comes back.  Never say never.

[Hate 20103]

From what I understand, the weather models most often relied upon for forecasting really struggle with very cold, shallow air masses. They typical find the cold a 8-10 before it happens and then “lose” the cold 5-6 days before the front comes through. There are some models still calling for it to get pretty cold and possibly have some winter weather mixed in. After the way the NWS has performed this year with the hurricanes and previous cold fronts, I’m done betting against them. Those guys are good, so I would base any plans around what they say the weather should do.

[Brisketexan 104561]

36 minutes ago, Gardner Barnes said:

So all this firewood is going to sit around then? Shit

Oh, no....don't waste that firewood.....

[clapclapclap 9000]

5 hours ago, Orange&White said:

I assume it is just a battle models, but my weekend forecast from the NWS is about 15-20 degrees warmer Wed-Sun that my forecast from Wundeground.

For instance; the Saturday night low on NWS is 40. The same night, WG shows a low of 18.

This is for 78750 in NW Austin.

I've notice that the NWS is often slower to adjust their forecasts than the private met services.  (And to tangent a bit more, what really pisses me off is when they'll stick with something like "high of 58" on their website rather than updating when their own website is already showing 62 at noon, sunny, and no fronts coming through.  It's ok to miss, but update instead of pouting about 'Tone!') 

Anyway, DFW NWS just revised downward Sunday's high to 26 after a low of 14.

Apparently some YouTube pranksters told Mother Nature that the Super Bowl is in Arlington next week.  Hope icicles fall on them.  

Edited February 8, 2021 by clapclapclap

[Rip76 4913]

From a Pro-Met on the old Channel 11 boards (now WXinfinity)

"Man, if the GFS/CMC are correct, that would be a 1989 type freeze with a 1983 duration. The "best" of both worlds. That would spell disaster for Texas with crops and pipes. I'm still not ready to bite on such extreme solutions but man, this is incredible."

[Orange&White 5516]

NWS finally came around for Austin. Projected low for Saturday night is onw 20 degrees.

 

Seems like the models are starting to agree.

[Neonmoon 38127]

3 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

NWS finally came around for Austin. Projected low for Saturday night is onw 20 degrees.

 

Seems like the models are starting to agree.

That be cold. 

[bolverk 29397]

Meanwhile, in the Great Lakes region:

 

[Guest Lobo]

Shit, multiple nights with sustained temps in the 20's...that's a genuine freeze.  Like I gotta do real freeze protection shit beyond just covering ext. faucets and plants.  I gotta clear any residual water in my sprinkler systems, gotta worry about the pipes in the two bathrooms above the garage, leave showers and sinks dripping, all that kinda fun shit.  Better stock up on some bourbon so I have something warm to drink while I do all this shit.  Daytimes don't actually look bad, doesn't look like any ice accumulation or anything (I'll defer to PhDhorn), just some chilly nights worrying about the kids' bathrooms staying warm enough to use during potty-training.  

I'll miss Ed Clements and Jeff Ward's drive-home banter on Thursday about pending Austi-Pocalypse. "They're looting the Randall's!"  

Edited February 8, 2021 by Lobo

[hornian 5204]

1 hour ago, Lobo said:

Shit, multiple nights with sustained temps in the 20's...that's a genuine freeze.  Like I gotta do real freeze protection shit beyond just covering ext. faucets and plants.  I gotta clear any residual water in my sprinkler systems, gotta worry about the pipes in the two bathrooms above the garage, leave showers and sinks dripping, all that kinda fun shit.  Better stock up on some bourbon so I have something warm to drink while I do all this shit.  Daytimes don't actually look bad, doesn't look like any ice accumulation or anything (I'll defer to PhDhorn), just some chilly nights worrying about the kids' bathrooms staying warm enough to use during potty-training.  

I'll miss Ed Clements and Jeff Ward's drive-home banter on Thursday about pending Austi-Pocalypse. "They're looting the Randall's!"  

Hi. Newb to having an irrigation system. Is there an easy way to "clear residual water" from sprinkler systems?

[Pato del Muerto 52340]

11 minutes ago, hornian said:

Hi. Newb to having an irrigation system. Is there an easy way to "clear residual water" from sprinkler systems?

You kill the water supply and then attach an air compressor to it, and it blows it all out of the heads. Lots of landscaping places do it up here, so I guess try calling them first unless you have a compressor- then figure out the correct nozzle. 
maybe some systems have a built in low point valve that can be opened to let gravity do the job?

[Gardner Barnes 1562]

3 hours ago, Orange&White said:

NWS finally came around for Austin. Projected low for Saturday night is onw 20 degrees.

 

Seems like the models are starting to agree.

So Ann Margret isn’t coming?

[Guest Lobo]

hornian---Very first thing you do, is shut off your main water supply valve.  Usually up front near your city line, but not always.  You should have manual valves (low point of the system usually), but fancy-pants people will have auto valves on newer systems.  Open the valves and let drain, even let 'em run for a minute or two per zone.  You may also want to clear out the backflow (which is absolutely critical up north), but I think we should be fine for a few nights of 20's. 

Also just depends on the depth of your system and the pitch of your yard.  Ours is older and covers a half acre with a 10-15 degree pitch so the pipes on the northern end are my concern because they are very close to the soil and will be the most susceptible  .  Don't forget to turn the water line to the system next week and run every zone for a minute or two again just to make sure nothing cracked.  

[Trey3216 15325]

7 hours ago, Orange&White said:

NWS finally came around for Austin. Projected low for Saturday night is onw 20 degrees.

 

Seems like the models are starting to agree.

Yep.   Calling for 34/16 in Waco on Saturday and 2 inches of snow on Monday with 31/20.  7 straight nights below freezing too.   Glad I held off on planting my potatoes and onions in the garden.   

[Post Oak 20184]

26 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Yep.   Calling for 34/16 in Waco on Saturday and 2 inches of snow on Monday with 31/20.  7 straight nights below freezing too.   Glad I held off on planting my potatoes and onions in the garden.   

Accuweather tells me in Sat night there will be a real feel of -11.  I can't imagine that but we're supposed to have 28mph gusts.  Gotta bring my saplings and my worms in and give everything a good watering.

[Trey3216 15325]

3 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

Accuweather tells me in Sat night there will be a real feel of -11.  I can't imagine that but we're supposed to have 28mph gusts.  Gotta bring my saplings and my worms in and give everything a good watering.

Yikes

[gsoda3 3236]

Jim Spencer tonight rolled out the model predicting the coldest temps. Low of 10 Sunday at 6:30am with wind chill of -10. That's fahrenheit. Crazy to imagine that's even a possibility here.

[Orange&White 5516]

I live way down in the Bull Creek basin. Temps at our house are usually 3-7 degrees cooler than what is being reported for Austin.

It looks like we will likely dip below freezing at 10 PM on Saturday and stay below until 10 AM on Tuesday.

We're gonna need a shitload of bourbon.

[Hate 20103]

We're gonna need a shitload of bourbon.

[hornian 5204]

26 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

I live way down in the Bull Creek basin. Temps at our house are usually 3-7 degrees cooler than what is being reported for Austin.

It looks like we will likely dip below freezing at 10 PM on Saturday and stay below until 10 AM on Tuesday.

We're gonna need a shitload of bourbon.

Buy an extra bottle for me. Send me your address and I'll sled by. 

[phdhorn 6224]

Most of you beat me to it, but finally I think we got an idea what's gonna happen.  The answer:

It's not gonna get all that cold.
And then it's really gonna get cold.

Originally, this air was forecast to plow through by Wed. and the big freeze would be the end of this week. But now it's changed to this, so here we go for the latest dice roll, although this one's kind of settling out:

- The front is actually through, the one that will allow the cold air in; it's not a bulldozing air mass down this far south, it's a gradual one.  It'll take a few days for the air to roost. However, it's gonna take several days to fully unleash it.  Saying that knowing that Dallas might struggle to get much above freezing today; Waco might make it to 40°.  We should get temps into the 50's today, maybe 50° tomorrow.  Overnight temps in the 30's but not freezing.

- So here's how the air makes it.  The polar low responsible for this is way north, but will only slowly move NE.  However, another low is out west and this one will sweep in Thurs, out Fri.  This low itself is helping a bit to block the air in sooner, but once that sweeps by on Friday, the cold front behind it is going to swing the gate open, and the air will start to filter down.  This air is still moving slowly though, so even with that, it'll take 2 days to get the bulk of the worst.  Then on Saturday, another front, a drier one, will swing through and that's that.  Fully into the path.

But even with all of this, the models are converging toward colder weather, but some are still saying not frigid.  And don't go by Waco or even the very northern areas of Austin; temps might vary a lot over our region.  Right now, the local stations are officially holding like in the mid-30's through the coldest daytimes, and mid-20's night.  Or, you can knock 5-10 degrees off of all this.

What sucks is that this cold can  moderate and not get too cold... or get colder than predicted.  It's a total bitch to predict how these vortexes behave.  So...

tl:dr: 

Tue-Thur will probably (but not 100% certain, could be colder) be cool, rain coming Wed overnight into Thurs (not icy).
Thur-Sat: series of 2-3 slightly colder fronts sweep in, likely no winter precip at this point, then temps sink.
Sat-Mon: at or near freezing 24/7 most likely.  Daytime highs 30°-35° ATX. nighttime lows 15°-25° (closer in the city, the higher). 

Keep in mind that the very, very cold weather isn't far from us, and one wobble or the other, forecast changes totally.

That's it for today, not an easy forecast to pinpoint.

Ollie (Family Guy) Analysis:  Gonna get cold.  Gonna freeze for awhile.  Gonna get warmer by Tuesday.
 

Edited February 9, 2021 by phdhorn

[Al_4_ISU 12409]

I'm looking forward to a high of 10, sometime next week.

This is one of the worst extended cold snaps we've had in years, apparently since the mid 90's (which had some brutal winters).  Temps aren't as bad as what we saw in '19, but that was over in 3 days.  This is going to be 10 days to 2 weeks of subzero lows.

[phdhorn 6224]

Well, you can see how our little enclave of Rome is holding out against the Picts, Visigoths, Ostrogoths, and Vandals bringing their frigid weather.  Look how close the air is to us (that 53 is San Antonio). 

You can also see where the boundary is between the cold air and the really cold air (runs through Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, etc.).  That's the stuff that, well if it makes it here late Saturday, it's gonna hurt.  Current temps:

 

Edited February 9, 2021 by phdhorn

[Al_4_ISU 12409]

That really bad bubble sitting over most of Iowa and half of Nebraska is proof that God hates the Hawkeyes and Huskers, and we're just getting drug along for the shit ride.

Or it's our penance for retaining Campbell.

Edited February 9, 2021 by Al_4_ISU

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

I'm looking forward to a high of 10, sometime next week.
This is one of the worst extended cold snaps we've had in years, apparently since the mid 90's (which had some brutal winters).  Temps aren't as bad as what we saw in '19, but that was over in 3 days.  This is going to be 10 days to 2 weeks of subzero lows.

It’s not bad. No snow in forecast at least

[Al_4_ISU 12409]

1 minute ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

It’s not bad. No snow in forecast at least

I'd take 20 and snow right now.

The single digit highs and lows around 0's without snow and lots of sun is actually pretty decent.

[C-Man 27041]

On 2/5/2021 at 9:15 AM, Knoxtnhorn said:

There was a front that hit around 84/85 (Dallas area) in which I'll never forget.   I was playing basketball in my shorts and sweating.  That night it dropped into the low teens.  The main water pipe in our street blew, shooting water several feet in the air for a good chunk of time.  The street was under several inches of ice for a week.  Good times.

/csb

You're probably thinking of the very final days of 1984. My grandfather took me deer hunting at his lease in San Diego, TX then and it was perhaps the coldest I've ever been, I think. We had a tin-covered "house" with dirt floors. The only heat was a wood-burning stove inside. I remember sleeping one night in every shred of clothing I had with me, including my boots, right next to the fire. We listened to the Horns get their shit packed in by Chuck Long and Iowa in the Freedom Bowl on the radio. My grandad was an aggy -- and loved it. We didn't see any deer. Miserable trip.

[gsoda3 3236]

@phdhorn thanks for the update.  loved the visigoth line.  is there going to be any precip for us sat through monday?  

[BBQ2Bayou 807]

1 hour ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I'm looking forward to a high of 10, sometime next week.

This is one of the worst extended cold snaps we've had in years, apparently since the mid 90's (which had some brutal winters).  Temps aren't as bad as what we saw in '19, but that was over in 3 days.  This is going to be 10 days to 2 weeks of subzero lows.

Great winter for me to have moved back to Iowa from Austin, eh? 

[phdhorn 6224]

26 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

@phdhorn thanks for the update.  loved the visigoth line.  is there going to be any precip for us sat through monday?  

Thanks. I'd have used Hitler and the Nazis, but you know, that's so faux-art deco.

[Al_4_ISU 12409]

36 minutes ago, BBQ2Bayou said:

Great winter for me to have moved back to Iowa from Austin, eh? 

Before last week, I would have said yes.  It was pretty mild up here.

Now?  I blame you.

[irishtexan 11445]

On 2/6/2021 at 8:01 AM, Spaulding Smails said:

Peach, plum and pear.  They're too big to cover.  My citrus trees are in pots, so I move them into the greenhouse for the winter.  Not much I can do other than let mother nature take her course.

I've heard you can wrap certain christmas lights around the branches, and that some of them give off enough heat to protect the buds. But it certainly would help if you could cover them to retain some of the modest amount of heat that the bulbs give off. Just a thought.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

I'd take 20 and snow right now.
The single digit highs and lows around 0's without snow and lots of sun is actually pretty decent.

Yuck. Roads are mostly perfect. Fuck snow, and melting snow that’ll turn to ice overnight.

[Spaulding Smails 1551]

2 hours ago, C-Man said:

You're probably thinking of the very final days of 1984. My grandfather took me deer hunting at his lease in San Diego, TX then and it was perhaps the coldest I've ever been, I think. We had a tin-covered "house" with dirt floors. The only heat was a wood-burning stove inside. I remember sleeping one night in every shred of clothing I had with me, including my boots, right next to the fire. We listened to the Horns get their shit packed in by Chuck Long and Iowa in the Freedom Bowl on the radio. My grandad was an aggy -- and loved it. We didn't see any deer. Miserable trip.

My dad took me hunting that week as well.  I was 5.  We went to our neighbor's lease in Lampasas.  I remember my dad making a makeshift sterno heater for the blind from a roll of toilet paper, rubbing alcohol and a coffee can.  He shot a buck that weekend, and I distinctly remember him cracking open a beer when he started skinning it, and the beer being frozen solid by the time he had it quartered.  That's probably one of my earliest memories.  It was stupid cold for Texas that weekend.