2020-21 Winter weather; bring it on

[clapclapclap 9000]

DFrozenW:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=FWD&issuedby=FWD&product=AFD&format=CI&version=5&glossary=1

By the weekend, another strong push of cold air is forecast across
the Southern Plains, with the cold front arriving on Saturday.
Both the GFS and ECMWF show much below normal temperatures through
the weekend, but vary significantly with regards to just how cold
it gets. The GFS is much colder than the ECMWF and indicates
temperatures that would be among the coldest we have seen here in
decades. Specifically, the GFS is forecasting low temperatures by
Sunday morning to be near 0 F (and possibly even sub-zero near the
Red River). If this came to fruition, it would be the coldest
temperatures since the Arctic Outbreak of December 1989 (and the
coldest temperatures in North Texas in my lifetime!).

Edited February 9, 2021 by clapclapclap
*Weeknd

[Trey3216 15325]

11 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

DFrozenW:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=FWD&issuedby=FWD&product=AFD&format=CI&version=5&glossary=1

By the weekend, another strong push of cold air is forecast across
the Southern Plains, with the cold front arriving on Saturday.
Both the GFS and ECMWF show much below normal temperatures through
the weekend, but vary significantly with regards to just how cold
it gets. The GFS is much colder than the ECMWF and indicates
temperatures that would be among the coldest we have seen here in
decades. Specifically, the GFS is forecasting low temperatures by
Sunday morning to be near 0 F (and possibly even sub-zero near the
Red River). If this came to fruition, it would be the coldest
temperatures since the Arctic Outbreak of December 1989 (and the
coldest temperatures in North Texas in my lifetime!).

Damn, that would be pretty brutal for North/Central Texas.  

[sasquatch69 583]

A longer update last night from the great Steve McCauley (former WFAA meteorologist who is now a college professor/consultant).  He's a worthy follow on FB.

Quote

Though it is not likely we will be setting record low temperatures with our long-advertised Arctic Blast, we will, nevertheless see some of the coldest air in decades settle across parts of north Texas by the weekend. My palm tree paradise of 13 years is going to take a serious hit!

 

Our initial cooling is already moving in from the NW, but it is a very shallow layer of cold air and will only knock us back down into the 40s and 50s tomorrow, followed by 30s and 40s for Wednesday, and 20s and 30s for Thursday and Friday as the cold air dome thickens. The full surge of frigid air is still expected for the weekend when we should bottom out in the single digits and teens across north Texas by Sunday morning.

 

ALL computer models from around the world are now in agreement that winter is finally coming to stay for awhile here in north Texas and have apparently stopped their flip flopping. Most models have trended colder with only the German model increasing its predicted low temperature for Sunday morning. The American Model is the coldest with temperatures falling to near 2°F by Sunday morning, while the European Model remains more optimistic at 20°F (I wish!).

 

It also appears we will stay near or below freezing for AT LEAST 4 or 5 days for many - though not all - parts of north Texas.

Wintry precipitation in the form of ice and snow will likely accompany our transition to winter, so stay tuned for updates on that.

 

For whatever it is worth, I have raised the Palm Alert Status to 4 which means only the hardiest palms (our native Sabal Minor, Texas and Florida Sabal, the Needle Palm, the Windmill Palm, Mediterranean Fan Palm, and the California Fan) will be able to handle this bitter cold snap with minimal protection. It will be marginal for the Pindo Palm to survive without moderate protection, serious damage can be expected to the Date Palms and Chinese Fan Palms and absolutely devastating for the Caranday and Queen Palm (which only nuts like me should install). I expect complete defoliation, but I am in hopes of keeping their core warm enough so that they can return in the spring.

 

The more sensitive palms in the south and southeastern areas of the state (look out Houston!) are going to have some major palm damage as well as they drop into the teens.

 

Of course, of more serious concern will be bursting water pipes, severe damage to roadways from freeze-thaw, and the possibility of spotty power outages. So hunker down...this is going to take awhile, but it, too, shall pass!

 

 

 

Edited February 9, 2021 by sasquatch69

[gsoda3 3236]

2 hours ago, phdhorn said:

Thanks. I'd have used Hitler and the Nazis, but you know, that's so faux-art deco.

so are we going to get precipitation this wkd in austin?

[UTCzech III 2900]

My wife and I got married in 1989 and were living in Georgetown, I can't remember where I found the info (tried searching but can't find it now) but a couple of years ago I posted on facebook how damn cold it was that December, because we were living in her grandmother's 1930's house with one gas floor heater (built into the floor) for the whole house.  Found the post, these were record lows set that month:  

Dec. 12: 22°; Dec. 13: 22°; Dec. 16: 11°; Dec.17: 12°; Dec. 23: -2° (yes, minus 2, lowest temp ever); Dec. 24: 7

[Storm the Field 5271]

Seeing crazy numbers in the teens and single digits for a good chunk of the state. 16 in Dallas overnight Sunday, 10 in Midland, 5 in Lubbock.

Not too upset about living in Houston proper this go round. Doesn't look like we'll get much lower than about 30 at any point. Y'all can have the snow.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11806]

January 1984 was damn cold.  I remember it because I was working for a guy named Dell Labay, who had potable water tanks at various oil rigs around the state.  I was a 17 year old punk and had to drive around SE Texas to go insulate those fuckers to keep the pumps from freezing.  Most of them didn't make it, that pot iron the pumps were built with was weak shit and busted like South Austin's mom's cherry.  Mainly the reason I remember that freeze, aside from the dead fish in the bay, was I picked up smoking.  Fucker had a box of cigars on his dash, and after 8 hours of trying to fix pipes with no gloves in freezing weather, I crawled back in that truck and turned the heater on, and thought man, this fire stick should be good.   It was.  Craig Curry muffed a punt that day too. I blame Fred Akers for my current state.

[phdhorn 6224]

4 hours ago, gsoda3 said:

so are we going to get precipitation this wkd in austin?

Uncertain.  Whatever falls is going to be scanty, but if temps are solidly below 32° it won't matter.

The most likely chance of precip is when that 2nd low breezes through on Thursday.  Temps will freeze just as the rain moves out, so I doubt it'll do anything hazardous, rain should be gone.  However, could be icy spots w/any residual rain.

Somewhat fair chance on Sat. but that should be mostly rain during the day - temps should make the mid-40's.

Relatively good chance Monday and that will without question be snow.  Doubt much will fall.  But anything is going to be a cause to consider travel.

Keep in mind that with this type of outbreak, temps might be much colder even 50, 75 miles N and NW of Austin.  So we might get to 45° on Sat. while Waco could be flirting with freezing highs.  And worse as you move NW from Austin.  Point:  if you're traveling N or W Saturday, be careful.  Going to Houston or E or S should be okay.

[Brisketexan 104559]

15 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Uncertain.  Whatever falls is going to be scanty, but if temps are solidly below 32° it won't matter.

The most likely chance of precip is when that 2nd low breezes through on Thursday.  Temps will freeze just as the rain moves out, so I doubt it'll do anything hazardous, rain should be gone.  However, could be icy spots w/any residual rain.

Somewhat fair chance on Sat. but that should be mostly rain during the day - temps should make the mid-40's.

Relatively good chance Monday and that will without question be snow.  Doubt much will fall.  But anything is going to be a cause to consider travel.

Keep in mind that with this type of outbreak, temps might be much colder even 50, 75 miles N and NW of Austin.  So we might get to 45° on Sat. while Waco could be flirting with freezing highs.  And worse as you move NW from Austin.  Point:  if you're traveling N or W Saturday, be careful.  Going to Houston or E or S should be okay.

What if we're just driving around in a circle....on a treadmill?

[workswithseed 2035]

Look who's face is on Google news for my area.

[Stella Link 534]

1 hour ago, workswithseed said:

Look who's face is on Google news for my area.

Looks like phdhorn is ready for the cold weather....

 

 

[Dilligas 666]

Morning snow Monday now forecast for Bulverde. Who the hell knows

[Hate 20103]

The models have not backed off of a major winter storm in Texas on Monday.  Some pro mets here in Houston have tweeted as such and called out record snowfall totals from the 1890's.  It's still a long way off, but I'm starting to get the same feelings about this as I did with Harvey when you looked at the models and said "no fucking way" only to watch it happen.  All of that being said, I fully expect to not get a flake of snow or sleet at my house and the temps will be cold but not freezing.  Here is one model predicting snowfall totoal across Texas through Monday night.  It uses a 10:1 ration meaning (I think) for every inch of moisture that falls it turns into 10 inches of frozen precipitation (I think...Frankie, Phd can correct that if wrong.  The problem is, when the air column is this cold all the way from top to bottom, it's possible to get 20:1 ratios.  I doubt this will happen and I'm likely going to be wearing shorts and a t-shirt on Monday while getting drunk for our dead Presidents, but this could be something not seen in well over a hundred years.

[Pato del Muerto 52340]

Thursday is my scheduled first covid vax shot. Thursday’s HIGH temperature is forecast to be -11.  With snow. Going to be like ice station zebra heading out.  Woof. 

[Trey3216 15325]

5 hours ago, Hate said:

The models have not backed off of a major winter storm in Texas on Monday.  Some pro mets here in Houston have tweeted as such and called out record snowfall totals from the 1890's.  It's still a long way off, but I'm starting to get the same feelings about this as I did with Harvey when you looked at the models and said "no fucking way" only to watch it happen.  All of that being said, I fully expect to not get a flake of snow or sleet at my house and the temps will be cold but not freezing.  Here is one model predicting snowfall totoal across Texas through Monday night.  It uses a 10:1 ration meaning (I think) for every inch of moisture that falls it turns into 10 inches of frozen precipitation (I think...Frankie, Phd can correct that if wrong.  The problem is, when the air column is this cold all the way from top to bottom, it's possible to get 20:1 ratios.  I doubt this will happen and I'm likely going to be wearing shorts and a t-shirt on Monday while getting drunk for our dead Presidents, but this could be something not seen in well over a hundred years.

Hmmm

[Post Oak 20183]

32 degrees here now and my tree guy decided to drop a whole load of wood chips for my garden in my driveway.  

Gonna be rough

[phdhorn 6224]

Calling for maybe 1"-4" around Austin.  Probably will get some.  Monday sure ain't gonna look like a typical South Central Texas day.

60-67 hours straight (Sat. evening through Tues. about noon) of below freezing in the ATX area a good possibility.

I'll be out today getting my plumbing ready.  Any exposed pipes by Tuesday have a > 50% chance of bursting.  Plants?  LOL, fuggeddabouddit.

[atomheartbevo 89409]

19 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Seeing crazy numbers in the teens and single digits for a good chunk of the state. 16 in Dallas overnight Sunday, 10 in Midland, 5 in Lubbock.

34 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Calling for maybe 1"-4" around Austin.  Probably will get some.  Monday sure ain't gonna look like a typical South Central Texas day.

60-67 hours straight (Sat. evening through Tues. about noon) of below freezing in the ATX area a good possibility.

Lived in North Dakota for a few years as a kid, and this is why I've never had any desire to go back.  Well, that and the state is pretty fucked up.  I think the cold weather destroys those folks' souls or something.  Yeah, the housing/buildings/schools were all built for the cold weather, and everybody dressed for it, and you got used to it, it was still fucking brutal to go through weeks at a time without it getting above freezing.  And we kids didn't have the internet or cable TV, so alcoholism was pretty rampant.

 

[Hate 20103]

Here is the latest GFS model for snowfall/sleet accumulation for the next week.




This will undoubtedly change before the event actually starts, but I’ve never seen weather modes completely revert to no storm at all. I think it’s increasingly likely that a huge part of the state will see some frozen precipitation over the next week.

[Pancho 44455]

15 minutes ago, Hate said:

Here is the latest GFS model for snowfall/sleet accumulation for the next week.




This will undoubtedly change before the event actually starts, but I’ve never seen weather modes completely revert to no storm at all. I think it’s increasingly likely that a huge part of the state will see some frozen precipitation over the next week.

That aqua color around Houston will not freak out this city at all.  Nope, Screwston folks never panic. 

[Brisketexan 104559]

Ok, so....pipe protection.  We haven't had a prolonged freeze like this in 25 years -- as long as I've owned a home in Austin.

We've always been successful just wrapping our pipes for the few times it dips into the teens overnight.  I've got a piece of foam pipe wrap on each outdoor faucet.  Then, wrapped in terry cloth towels.  Then, a soft insulated pipe cover.  THEN, a hard, foam and plastic pipe cover.

And I'm concerned that won't be enough.  I'm thinking of using a small cardboard box to build a wind shelter around each of them, and then occasionally, running a small space heater to blow into that shelter for an hour or so, to thoroughly warm the pipe up.

Or....is this going to be bad enough that we should just say fuck it, and drip the faucets?

[Updawg 2261]

Wondering the same.

[Brisketexan 104559]

5 minutes ago, Pancho said:

That aqua color around Houston will not freak out this city at all.  Nope, Screwston folks never panic. 

If it snows 17 inches in Houston.....

...they'll end up eating rats and sawdust bread and sometimes...each other.

[Red Five 40633]

8 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

We've always been successful just wrapping our pipes for the few times it dips into the teens

Chris Hansen gif. 

[Guest Lobo]

I'm draining the sprinkler system valves, heavily covering the two outflows.  As for the four exterior faucets, alternate between covering them just during sleeping hours and then letting them drip during waking hours.  By Sunday night into Monday and maybe Monday into Tuesday, probably think long and hard about letting even outboard bathrooms and laundry room sinks and showers dripping.    Keep the garage as warm as possible with space heater so that the two upstairs bathrooms don't get any pipe issues. 

If you have an outdoor kitchen, you should literally start taking it apart today.  

We'll all be okay as long as there's no power outage.  

Edited February 10, 2021 by Lobo

[Brisketexan 104559]

4 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I'm draining the sprinkler system valves, heavily covering the two outflows.  As for the four exterior faucets, alternate between covering them just during sleeping hours and then letting them drip during waking hours.  By Sunday night into Monday and maybe Monday into Tuesday, probably think long and hard about letting even outboard bathrooms and laundry room sinks and showers dripping.    Keep the garage as warm as possible with space heater so that the two upstairs bathrooms don't get any pipe issues. 

If you have an outdoor kitchen, you should literally start taking it apart today.  

We'll all be okay as long as there's no power outage.  

Definitely dripping all interior faucets on an exterior wall (especially the two I have on north-facing walls).

Just trying to figure out what I do with the outdoor faucets.  Maybe wrap, then heat?  Or wrap, then unwrap and drip?  That path seems pretty tedious.  I figure we can warm them up with a heater/hair dryer before we re-wrap them each evening, if need be.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

Lived in North Dakota for a few years as a kid, and this is why I've never had any desire to go back.  Well, that and the state is pretty fucked up.  I think the cold weather destroys those folks' souls or something.  Yeah, the housing/buildings/schools were all built for the cold weather, and everybody dressed for it, and you got used to it, it was still fucking brutal to go through weeks at a time without it getting above freezing.  And we kids didn't have the internet or cable TV, so alcoholism was pretty rampant.
 

Weakling

[ballrific 215]

52 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Definitely dripping all interior faucets on an exterior wall (especially the two I have on north-facing walls).

Just trying to figure out what I do with the outdoor faucets.  Maybe wrap, then heat?  Or wrap, then unwrap and drip?  That path seems pretty tedious.  I figure we can warm them up with a heater/hair dryer before we re-wrap them each evening, if need be.

for outdoor faucets, one of those foam covers along with a towel or something around it should be fine.  Just make sure it's sealed around the hole where pipe comes out.  In other words, cover your pipe where it goes into the hole..like in nam

Edited February 10, 2021 by ballrific

[Brisketexan 104559]

13 minutes ago, ballrific said:

for outdoor faucets, one of those foam covers along with a towel or something around it should be fine.  Just make sure it's sealed around the hole where pipe comes out.  In other words, cover your pipe where it goes into the hole..like in nam

What if my pipe is too beaucoup?

[phdhorn 6224]

I have a well with exposed pipes, so I tarp it and run a space heater as well as two light bulbs. Does the trick as long as it's entirely sealed from the outside.

For my hose bibs, I just have a styrofoam cover and I also wrap the north facing ones with a towel.

My garage faces north so I'll shut the door Sunday through Tuesday. As long as I keep it shut, the heat of the house will keep the pipes in there just fine. However I'm going to wrap one piece of exposed pipe in a towel.

I would expect a huge number of residential pipe problems and even some water main bursts on a road or two with this kind of cold for this long. Hopefully it won't be the coldest end of predictions but we'll just have to see.

[MissingInAction 24811]

What about vehicle maintenance? I work from home so no need to drive. Should we grab a beer and idle our slabs for an hour each day?

[Hate 20103]

Here is the latest GFS model for temps Tuesday morning. If this verifies, the whole state is going to be proper fucked. This does not take into account the wind chill. The wind chill could be expected to be -10 to -20. It’s still 6 days out so a lot can and will change, but even if it doesn’t get quite record breaking cold it is going to be colder here for longer than we are used to.

[Radical Larry 28528]

[Radical Larry 28528]

Dp

[Radical Larry 28528]

Triple post

[Radical Larry 28528]

Fuck tapa

[Al_4_ISU 12409]

So... do you guys not put pipes inside of structures?  I've been to Texas a bunch of times, but never paid any attention to home construction.

We almost never have water pipes freeze.  Basically, you have to have the heat go out in your house, or the frost to reach some historic levels.  We bought our house in '12, and twice we've had to trickle the faucets because the frost got deep enough to threaten the service lines running off the municipal water.

Edited February 10, 2021 by Al_4_ISU

[Brisketexan 104559]

1 minute ago, Al_4_ISU said:

So... do you guys not put pipes inside of structures?  I've been to Texas a bunch of times, but never paid any attention to home construction.

We almost never have water pipes freeze.  Basically, you have to have the heat go out of your house, or the frost to reach some historic levels.  We bought our house in '12, and twice we've had to trickle the faucets because the frost got deep enough to threaten the service lines running off the municipal water.

The concern is our exterior faucets (where we hook up our hoses).  The protrude a few inches outside your walls, and conduct the supercooling down the pipe, where there's residual water, and they bust inside your walls.

[gsoda3 3236]

1 hour ago, Lobo said:

I'm draining the sprinkler system valves, heavily covering the two outflows. 

how are you draining your valves?  i shut off the master valve to the sprinklers and then opened the drain valve there and a trickle of water came out for maybe 20 seconds but i'm sure there's still residual water downhill.  as far as i know, there's no drain cap at the bottom of the system at its lowest point so how would that get drained?  

[Al_4_ISU 12409]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

The concern is our exterior faucets (where we hook up our hoses).  The protrude a few inches outside your walls, and conduct the supercooling down the pipe, where there's residual water, and they bust inside your walls.

We have those too.  I'm not sure what's done differently with our plumbing, but it doesn't seem to be a concern of anyone, and I've never thought twice about ours.  However they're set up here, they aren't causing frozen pipes.

[Nueces River Rat 5529]

2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Ok, so....pipe protection.  We haven't had a prolonged freeze like this in 25 years -- as long as I've owned a home in Austin.

We've always been successful just wrapping our pipes for the few times it dips into the teens overnight.  I've got a piece of foam pipe wrap on each outdoor faucet.  Then, wrapped in terry cloth towels.  Then, a soft insulated pipe cover.  THEN, a hard, foam and plastic pipe cover.

And I'm concerned that won't be enough.  I'm thinking of using a small cardboard box to build a wind shelter around each of them, and then occasionally, running a small space heater to blow into that shelter for an hour or so, to thoroughly warm the pipe up.

Or....is this going to be bad enough that we should just say fuck it, and drip the faucets?

Drip the faucets and keep the heater on.....  My worry based on the models is the power grid having issues.   Electric heaters zap more energy than A/C's and we have issues during the summer when temps spike way up across the state with the grid.  I know back in the 80's when had some historic cold snaps, we had some rolling blackouts in the RGV.   Those events were relatively without the moisture.  This one at least as of today is going to have the severe cold and moisture to mess with the actual transmission lines too.   If you get moisture, hope for snow or sleet.  Ice in the form of freezing rain is no Bueno and whomever gets this is going to have line issues.   On top of trees that are not used to icing snapping and bringing down some lines our fall on roofs.

[Brisketexan 104559]

Just now, Nueces River Rat said:

Drip the faucets and keep the heater on.....  My worry based on the models is the power grid having issues.   Electric heaters zap more energy than A/C's and we have issues during the summer when temps spike way up across the state with the grid.  I know back in the 80's when had some historic cold snaps, we had some rolling blackouts in the RGV.   Those events were relatively without the moisture.  This one at least as of today is going to have the severe cold and moisture to mess with the actual transmission lines too.   If you get moisture, hope for snow or sleet.  Ice in the form of freezing rain is no Bueno and whomever gets this is going to have line issues.   On top of trees that are not used to icing snapping and bringing down some lines our fall on roofs.

Yeah, the power loss issues are definitely a worry.  I think that some big chunks of the state are going to see outages, and with the conditions being as widespread as they are, they're going to be hard to repair quickly.

We have stocked up firewood, and if need be, can sleep out in the living room by the fire.  I'm a bit worried about my folks up the road.  They have gas fireplaces, and they do throw off some heat, but I'd have to set up some sleeping arrangements in the living room.  They have some twin beds in the guest room that we could drag out there.   But then, I'd have to get to their house to do that.  I have a 4x4, and can drive slow as hell and get there, unless we're dealing with pure ice.

[Nueces River Rat 5529]

6 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

So... do you guys not put pipes inside of structures?  I've been to Texas a bunch of times, but never paid any attention to home construction.

We almost never have water pipes freeze.  Basically, you have to have the heat go out in your house, or the frost to reach some historic levels.  We bought our house in '12, and twice we've had to trickle the faucets because the frost got deep enough to threaten the service lines running off the municipal water.

I think most folks who have  one story slab foundations and newer homes will be ok.   It's the two story homes where plumbing goes into an attic or open foundation homes  is where it can be an issue.   When we had the bad freezes in the 80's across the state, they occurred around Christmas when many people where away from home and came back to find water damage  or had a neighbor calling them about water running down their driveways.  

[Hate 20103]

Yep. The power outages are what I am concerned with most. My MIL has a fully electric setup, so if her power goes out she won’t have any heating at all. I’ll talk to her today about coming to our house, but she won’t budge I’m sure. I think my wife and her would kill each other after being stuck in a blizzard for 3 days anyway, so we might as well just warn her and let whatever happens happen. She’s got good neighbors around that she could go to if she really needed to. We have a gas fireplace and a propane heater to set up if necessary so we should be fine.

[Al_4_ISU 12409]

The fear of power outage makes total sense. 

[NoRagrets 1125]

13 minutes ago, Hate said:

Yep. The power outages are what I am concerned with most. My MIL has a fully electric setup, so if her power goes out she won’t have any heating at all. I’ll talk to her today about coming to our house, but she won’t budge I’m sure. I think my wife and her would kill each other after being stuck in a blizzard for 3 days anyway, so we might as well just warn her and let whatever happens happen. She’s got good neighbors around that she could go to if she really needed to. We have a gas fireplace and a propane heater to set up if necessary so we should be fine.

Please do not use your propane heater inside. That seems like a bad idea.

[Hate 20103]

Please do not use your propane heater inside. That seems like a bad idea.

The one I have is for indoor use.

[Jiggy-Z 3432]

I'm only seeing like 36 hours below freezing in Austin.

You guys keep on "Jim Spencering" though.

[Nueces River Rat 5529]

 

[Nueces River Rat 5529]

Anyone have any ice skates I can borrow???    I've always wanted to ice skate on the Bayfront in Corpus....LOL!